14 January 15, 2016 News & Analysis Significance of Iran rocket tests in the Strait of Hormuz

Sabahat Khan drills that involve building replicas of US military vessels and sinking Dubai them. This is seen as a way to better understand the design, construc- ran test-fired unguided rock- tion and structure of such ships, ets from small vessels less give Iranian forces more realistic than 1.5km from a US aircraft “target practice” and to support carrier and destroyer, and a strategic messaging objectives. French frigate passing through But what was unusual — though Ithe Strait of Hormuz on December not unprecedented — is the Iranian 30th, a US military spokesman said. denial of the US reports because Iran quickly dismissed US com- typically uses missile and plaints of a rocket test, labelling rocket tests and exercises to sup- the reports a “psychological opera- port its strategic messaging and tion”, but a week later, the US Navy posturing whenever possible. released a video clearly showing In October 2015, for example, File picture shows US aircraft carrier USS Harry S. Truman transiting the Strait of Hormuz. small vessels, purportedly Iranian, Iran tested its Emad medium-range launching unguided rockets within ballistic missile — drawing sharp close range of US Navy vessels. criticism from the United States san Rohani was full of praise for the about jeopardising the nuclear deal. Iranian forces have engaged in Iranian forces regularly conduct in particular. Reuters reported Emad ballistic missile launch and Iran has declared that sanctions re- at sea with the United States and naval drills near the Strait of Hor- that a UN sanctions monitor panel declared the necessity for Iran to lated to its missile programme will Iran may have believed it was un- muz to test and demonstrate their concluded that the Emad ballistic “continue with greater speed and threaten the agreement. likely to receive the publicity it did, asymmetric capabilities at sea and missile test was in violation of UN seriousness the plan for production In the current context, Iranian which is damaging at a time when highlight their potential to effec- Security Council Resolution 1929, of various missiles needed by the forces firing unguided rockets in Iranian diplomacy has brought suc- tively block one of the most strate- which prohibits Iran from conduct- armed forces within the approved the sort of scenario captured in re- cess with the nuclear deal and lift- gic waterways and maritime choke- ing launches of ballistic missiles defence policies”. ports and footage released by the ing of international sanctions. points in the world, through which capable of delivering nuclear weap- With the nuclear deal between US Navy would have been designed For now, the rocket test incident as much as 90% of globally bound ons. Iran and world powers in place, Iran to achieve three objectives: First, to is likely to pass without significant oil shipments pass on a daily basis. is attaching an even higher premi- harass US Navy vessels and dispel ramifications but Iran has faced a Iranian military strategy attaches Iranian military um to protecting and expanding its perceptions of any détente at home higher political cost than it may great importance to being able to strategy attaches missile programme — it worries the and abroad; second, as a demon- have anticipated and it will need execute access denial operations great importance to agreement may be interpreted as stration to the United States and to be more mindful of how it con- in the strait of Hormuz as a way to a sign of weakness and set a prec- international players of the anti- fronts increasing attention on the raise the international costs of any being able to edent for its missile programme to access/area denial (A2AD) capabili- horizon to its growing missile ca- conflict it could face with the Unit- execute access be made the subject of an interna- ties Iran possesses in the strait; and pabilities in the United States and ed States and Tehran’s rivals in the denial operations in tional effort next. third, as a reminder that Tehran elsewhere. Arab Gulf. There have been growing calls attaches strategic rather than “sea- Iranian forces also “harass” US the strait of Hormuz. in the US Congress to impose a sonal” importance to its missile Sabahat Khan is based in Dubai Navy vessels in the region, some- new round of economic sanctions programme — and that the nuclear and maintains a cross-disciplinary times approaching them at high The UN panel considers missiles against Iran for its missile pro- deal reached with the P5+1 does not focus in international security, speed, moving small, fast boats that can deliver a payload of 500 kg gramme. While the White House affect or relate to that missile pro- defence policy and strategic close and dispatching remotely pi- at least 300km as being capable of has not ruled out taking measures gramme. issues. He is an alumnus of Royal loted vehicles to tail movements. delivering nuclear warheads. against Iran, President Barack The reported incident was not Holloway, King’s College London For years, Iran has conducted naval However, Iranian President Has- Obama’s administration is sensitive the most threatening manoeuvre and Cranfield University. Iran fails to spread Shiism in Syria

Ahmad grave of Ruqayya, granddaughter of hussainiya (Shia ) in Hatla, two decades, the mosque remained with their neighbours of the Sunnite Ali. a town near Deir ez-Zor that was without finishing because the for- majority. “Shias have been living Iranian plans to build home to 30,000 people,” Mustafa mer president feared Iranian ambi- in Daraa since the beginning of the Northern Syria near Ammar ibn Yasser, a district in said. “However, only 800 people tions to take control of it,” said Firas 20th century after many Lebanese Raqqa believed to contain the grave converted to Shiism.” el-Ali, a Raqqa resident who now Shias moved there for work,” said ran’s 15-year effort to spread of a key aide to Imam Ali, were In Mhaymida, a smaller and poor- lives in Urfa. Mohammad el-Hariri, a native of Shiism in Syria has garnered foiled when Syrian President Bashar er nearby town, efforts to convince Two years after Assad died and his Daraa. limited results despite strong Assad’s regime lost control of the people to convert to Shiism were son Bashar took over in 2000, the There were no sectarian tensions financing and has been slowed eastern city soon after the revolu- more successful. “The group built a mosque was finished and equipped in the province. In the late 1980s, El- by the war that started in 2011. tion started in March 2011. Many hussainiya there and exploited peo- under a contract granted to Tehran Mortada Association, named after a IIn 2000, Iran started building Iranians and supporters of Iran were ple’s poverty. They gave converts by Damascus, Ali said. “It was a title attributed to Ali ibn Abi Taleb, mosques and shrines dedicated expelled or killed during clashes in money and food and helped them major project conducted by Iranian was formed to encourage conver- to sacred figures in Shia tradition. Raqqa. find work,” Mustafa said, estimat- experts, and it provided many Syr- sion to Shiism. Run by Jamil Assad, a Shias and Alawites were estimated Towns near Deir ez-Zor, an east- ing converts to Shiism in Deir ez-Zor ians with temporary jobs until the brother of the late Syrian president, at 3% of the overall Syrian popula- ern city, were home to widespread province to have reached 15,000 mosque was ready.” the group did not achieve much suc- tion of 23 million in 2011 and lived conversion to Shiism before the people by the eve of the revolution. The experts worked on propa- cess except in Qorfa, the hometown mainly in Damascus and parts of revolution. “Yassine El-Maayouf, In early 2013, Hatla was taken gating Shiism in Raqqa but only a of the late Rustum Ghazali, who Idlib, Homs and Aleppo provinces. whose in-law was an army service- over by opposition fighters, who ar- relatively small number of families was Syria’s strongman in Lebanon Unofficial estimates put the number man, played a key role in this,” said rested or killed many converts and converted, Ali said. “Most of those from 2000-05, Hariri said from Urfa of Shias at no more than 50,000. Ahmad Mustafa, who hails from burned the hussainiya. Many other who converted did so in return for where he now lives. Hundreds of million dollars were a town near Deir ez-Zor and now converts fled to areas controlled aid the Iranians provided.” When “Since one of Ghazali’s relatives spent to build mosques near Sayyi- lives in Urfa on the Turkish by the regime, said Mustafa, who the mosque was inaugurated, for- played a key role in El-Mortada As- dah Zaynab, a town south of Damas- side of the Syrian border. fled to Turkey when the Islamic mer Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatol- sociation, Shias close to Ghazali cus believed to contain the grave “El-Maayouf and his fol- State (ISIS) took over most of lah Ruhollah Khomeini was given a soon gained influence in Daraa. of Zaynab, the daughter of Imam lowers received financial and Deir ez-Zor province in mid- prominent place inside and an Ira- They also received aid from Iran. Ali ibn Abi Taleb, who is the most moral support and he built a 2014. “El-Maayouf is believed nian administered the mosque. Many of them joined pro-govern- sacred figure in . Other to live now between Damascus, When Raqqa fell into rebel hands, ment militias after the revolution mosques were built near Sayyidah Tehran and Beirut.” many converts to Shiism were ar- broke out. But soon most of the Ruqayya, a Damascus district In Raqqa, Shia propaganda rested and key figure among them, south fell into rebel hands, and believed to contain the faced hurdles. Ammar ibn Yasser Hassan el-Saleh, was executed. Shias left to government-controlled and two other aides of Ali ibn Abi Many others fled to government- areas,” Hariri said. Taleb — Ubay ibn Abi Ka’ab controlled areas. When ISIS took Qorfa remains a government-con- and Uwais al-Qarni — are over the city, it destroyed the trolled enclave in the region. buried there. Under late mosque. Mohammad Habash, a former President Hafez Assad, Shiism was present in southern lawmaker who fled to Dubai, de- the government built a Syria for hundreds of years. Shias nied rumours that Syria’s grand large mosque encompass- were living generally in harmony mufti, Sheikh Ahmad Badreddine ing the three graves. “For Hassoun, had secretly converted to Shiism. Regarding Hassoun’s statements, which seem pro-Shia, Habash said the cleric “believes, as we do, in Islamic unity, but he was unable to tell (Shias) that their ac- tions destabilise this unity.”

Ahmad Ramadan, a pseudonym used for safety reasons, is a reporter in northern Syria who contributes The shrine of Ammar bin Yasser, which Iran built in the city of Raqqa. to The Arab Weekly.