Snowy River Shire Residential Planning Project Final Report

Snowy River Shire Council October 2005

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This Report has been prepared on behalf of: Snowy River Shire Council

This report has been prepared by:

SGS Economics and Planning Pty Ltd

Level 1, 119 Macquarie Street Hobart, Tasmania 7000 ph: 61 3 6223 6006 fax: 61 3 6224 9009 email: [email protected] web: www.sgs-pl.com.au

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Table of Contents

Executive Summary...... 1

1 Introduction ...... 5

1.1 Basis of the Analysis...... 5

2 The Snowy River Shire population ...... 7

2.1.1 The pattern of seasonal variation ...... 13 2.1.2 Visitors in Private Residences and Seasonal Residents ...... 15 2.2 Summary of Population Groups...... 18

3 Resident population characteristics and change ...... 19

3.1 Recent indicators of resident population growth ...... 19 3.1.1 Age and sex profile...... 22 3.1.2 Natural Increase ...... 23 3.1.3 Migration trends...... 24 3.1.4 Migration drivers...... 27 3.2 Summary of resident population trends...... 31

4 Housing supply...... 32

4.1 Current stock and past growth ...... 32 4.1.1 Housing type by location...... 33 4.1.2 Unoccupied dwellings by location ...... 34 4.1.3 Housing tenure ...... 35 4.1.4 Rent paid ...... 36 4.1.5 Trends in building and development approvals...... 37 4.1.6 Distribution of Activity ...... 39 4.1.7 Public housing ...... 40 4.2 Summary of Housing Supply...... 41

5 Land Supply ...... 42

5.1.1 Rural Residential Supply ...... 43 5.1.2 Tracking Land Supply ...... 45 5.2 Summary of Land Supply ...... 46

6 Economic Base ...... 47

6.1 Employment by Industry ...... 47 6.2 Incomes...... 51 6.3 Summary of Economic Base ...... 51

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7 Employment lands ...... 52

7.1 Retail and associated business activity centres...... 52 7.1.1 Jindabyne retail catchment...... 52 7.1.2 Berridale...... 54 7.1.3 Adaminaby...... 54 7.2 Construction, transport, manufacturing, repairs, utilities and wholesale trade ...... 55 7.3 Other Sectors ...... 56 7.4 Summary of Employment Lands...... 57

8 The Snowy River Shire Communities...... 58

8.1 Jindabyne township and immediate surrounds ...... 58 8.2 Dalgety...... 64 8.3 Berridale ...... 68 8.4 Adaminaby and Surrounds ...... 72

9 Future growth scenarios ...... 76

Table of Tables

Table 1. Snowy River Population, past and projected, 1991 – 2022...... 7 Table 2. Distribution of usual residents and estimated resident population, 2001 ...... 9 Table 3. Distribution of visitors and seasonal residents, 2001 Census night ...... 11 Table 4. Type of accommodation for visitors...... 13 Table 5. Proportion of properties with ratepayers mailing address not in the Shire ...... 17 Table 6. Estimated Growth in Resident Population...... 19 Table 7. Births Deaths and Natural Increase, Alpine Region LGAs, 1997-01...... 23 Table 8. Source and destination of migrants...... 25 Table 9. Dwellings in Snowy River Shire...... 32 Table 10. Dwelling type by location, occupied private dwellings ...... 33 Table 11. Unoccupied dwelling by location ...... 35 Table 12. Tenure by housing type ...... 35 Table 13. Dwelling tenure by location...... 36 Table 14. Share of low and high rent properties by location ...... 37 Table 15. Development approvals, dwellings, by location...... 39 Table 16. Dual occupancy and medium density approvals, 1995-1998, by location ...... 40 Table 17. Holiday Dwelling approvals, 1995-2005, by location...... 40 Table 18. Subdivision Approvals, 1995-2004...... 42 Table 19. Holdings by size, smaller parcels, all rural areas ...... 43 Table 20. Rural residential rated properties by size, 1998, Snowy River Shire ...... 43 Table 21. Rural Residential Developments Near Jindabyne ...... 44 Table 22. Labour market as of Census 2001...... 47 Table 23. Land area for industrial employment ...... 55 Table 24. Employment in other sectors...... 56

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Table of Figures

Figure 1. Snowy River Shire Estimated Resident Population...... 8 Figure 2. Distribution of usual residents, 2001 ...... 10 Figure 3. Ratio of seasonal population to usual residents on census night, 2001...... 12 Figure 4. Jindabyne treatment plant throughput, 1991-2002 ...... 14 Figure 5. Implied average population, November to May based on treatment flows ...... 15 Figure 6. Estimated Growth in Resident Population, 2001-2004 ...... 20 Figure 7. School enrolments for primary schools, 1996 – 2005, (+projected for Dalgety)...... 21 Figure 8. Age profile for Snowy River Shire estimated resident population...... 22 Figure 9. Profile of age by sex, 2002 ...... 23 Figure 10. Age profile of migrants, 2000-2001...... 26 Figure 11. Age profile of migrants, 1995-1996...... 26 Figure 12. Residential development approvals ...... 38 Figure 13. Employment of usual residents by industry, 2001 ...... 48 Figure 14. Approximate share of employment by four major categories ...... 50 Figure 15. Income distribution by sex, Snowy River Shire and Australia, 2001 Census...... 51 Figure 16. Population Density, Jindabyne ...... 59 Figure 17. Visitors and Seasonal Residents, Jindabyne...... 60 Figure 18. Population Growth, 2001-2004, Jindabyne ...... 61 Figure 19. LEP Zones, Jindabyne wider area...... 62 Figure 20. LEP Zones, Jindabyne Town Area...... 63 Figure 21. Population Density, Dalgety ...... 64 Figure 22. Visitors and Seasonal Residents, Dalgety...... 65 Figure 23. Population Growth, 2001-2004, Dalgety ...... 66 Figure 24. LEP Zones, Dalgety...... 67 Figure 25. Population Density, Berridale ...... 68 Figure 26. Visitors and Seasonal Residents, Berridale ...... 69 Figure 27. Population Growth, 2001-2004, Berridale ...... 70 Figure 28. LEP Zones, Berridale ...... 71 Figure 29. Population Density, Adaminaby ...... 72 Figure 30. Visitors and Seasonal Residents, Adaminaby ...... 73 Figure 31. Population Growth, 2001-2004, Adaminaby ...... 74 Figure 32. LEP Zones, Adaminaby ...... 75

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Executive Summary

Population Groups

There are several ‘populations’ that affect the pattern of development in Snowy River Shire. • Permanent residents that live year round in the shire • Seasonal residents that own property in the shire and occupy it at weekends or during the ski or summer seasons • Seasonal workers that come to work, mostly in the winter season • Visitors (tourists) that stay in hotels, ski lodges, holiday dwellings, bed and breakfast or with friends

The permanent population has grown steadily over the past 15 years. The greatest concentration is around Jindabyne and growth in population has been strongest there.

Seasonal population growth has been more variable, according to factors that affect the affordability of vacation homes and the cost of other options. It includes those attracted more to lakeside locations, others seeking winter sports and those looking for year round or bush lifestyles. Many seasonal residents eventually become permanent residents in retirements.

Winter visitation is essentially mature, but varies according to the quality of the ski season. Summer visitation is gradually increasing.

Resident population trends

Growth rates of the resident population in the Shire have been relatively steady for much of the last fifteen years at about 185 persons per year in the late 1990s. ABS estimates of change since then show a reduced rate of growth but this may be subject to revision after the next census.

Net in-migration has accounted for 75% of the growth and natural increase the rest. Natural increase has been declining and in-migration increasing. Net immigration is mostly in ages 35+ with the greatest net in-migration in ages 45 to 75 plus accompanying children for younger households. There is a net loss of young adults aged 20 to 30. While fewer people move in an out of the shire in older age groups, a much higher proportion remain.

For all age groups there is an advantage in housing costs to move to the shire from expensive metropolitan and coastal areas. For younger age groups, employment may affect their ability to remain in the shire. For older age groups, employment is not a constraint on moving to or remaining in the shire.

Housing Supply

Housing supply has grown to accommodate both permanent and seasonal residents. The growth rate has been less steady than for the growth in estimated resident population. Growth in seasonal

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residents appears to have been more variable based on the more variable rate of growth of dwellings compared to population. About 45% of dwellings may be owned for seasonal occupation. Some housing stock moves between permanent and seasonal residents. Overall about 35% of additional housing appears to accommodate seasonal residents.

Medium density housing is mostly concentrated in Jindabyne and the ski resorts. The pattern of occupancy suggests this is favoured by visitors and seasonal workers as there is a high proportion offered for rental at relatively high seasonal rates. Rents for dwellings rented year round are much more affordable.

Growth in new dwellings has been strongest in the Jindabyne area with stronger recent growth in Berridale which both have growing permanent populations. Growth in other areas where population has been static probably reflects investment primarily in seasonal dwellings.

The demand for housing and land will remain to some extent unpredictable, particularly as the drivers of growth for both migration and seasonal residents are based on factors outside of the region.

It is likely that future growth will continue to be focused in the Jindabyne area, with secondary growth in Berridale. While significant growth in the other communities is not anticipated, a lack of suitable land for development, including rural residential land, should not be allowed to inhibit such growth as may occur.

Land Supply

The pattern of land supply has reflected the pattern of population development as would be expected. The notable variation in the region is the availability of rural residential land in the Jindabyne area – and its strong uptake – a feature absent from other areas of the shire. A case can be made that the absence of this form of development has had an effect on reducing development in these areas, although this remains untested, as does the extent to which it may attract permanent rather than seasonal population.

Economic Base

The economy of the shire is heavily dependent on tourism, even taking into account the fact that the census was taken during the peak tourist season. During the peak season, incomes are above average and unemployment is very low. The industry is also very focused on the Jindabyne area. Strengthening the summer season and diversifying the economic base remains a continuing challenge for the shire.

Employment Lands

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areas for the foreseeable future. In the medium term, parts of the Jindabyne centre will be to be redeveloped and eventually extended. In the long term, a second centre should be established to serve the local population.

Future growth scenarios

Likely

Population growth will moderate in the short term due to falling Sydney and steady Canberra housing prices. Continued growth is expected in the longer term at roughly historical rates driven by steady growth in summer tourism, lifestyle relocation and retirement.

Apart from growth in summer tourism, employment growth will be mostly in population-based industry (construction, retail, personal services). For tourism and for many related businesses like retail, the biggest change will not be major growth in capacity but greater use of existing capacity year round. This will also be true for education and health to some extent. However, there will need to be growth in capacity for sectors serving the elderly and potentially school aged children.

Housing capacity will need to grow to accommodate additional permanent residents at about the current level or slightly above on average over the long term: 150 - 180 persons or about 50-70 households per year across the Shire.

The need for seasonal holiday homes would increase in large part based on relative affordability and the extent to which options to acquire attractive sites are available. There will continue to be a strong market for renting houses to visitors. The numbers of dwellings for seasonal homes and holiday rentals will probably remain close to the numbers built for permanent residents, about 40- 50 per year. Seasonal workers accommodation is unlikely to grow significantly and could even decline slightly as more workers are employed year round.

Growth in Adaminaby will be of retirees with smaller growth in working age population to serve them as many services will be provided from Cooma.

Low

In this scenario the failure of several winter seasons undercuts the viability and quality of tourism offerings. This reduces the capacity of operators to effectively develop the summer season so it does not grow significantly. Poor employment prospects lead to the loss of young families from the area, at least initially. However, falling property prices and high vacancies in seasonal properties bring them onto the year round rental market and many are offered for sale. Semi retirees and retirees are retained, and even more strongly attracted as falling property prices and the reduced winter peak make places like Jindabyne a more attractive location for older persons. This demand could then be sustained even if metropolitan housing prices are not so strong.

This scenario would see the retirement sector becoming a larger part of the economy and tourism reducing. This could reduce the demand for seasonal accommodation. Population growth in younger age groups would recover slowly as population driven demand increases employment in the longer term.

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A potential super-low scenario could arise if government refuses to fund sufficient support for older residents in the shire. This could reduce its attractiveness and lead to the potential for declining population. This is considered a low probability.

Growth in the low scenario could be zero or even a drop in population in the short term. However, longer term the low growth scenario could see rates of about half of that of the likely scenario.

High

Summer visitation shows strong growth until summer visitation is over half of winter levels. Strong year round employment sustains higher population growth as retail and services available all year round meet most local needs at lower prices than at present. A resurgent Sydney housing market and increasing numbers of baby boomers retiring creates demand for lifestyle residential locations, but restrictions on coastal properties and high prices there open up greater interest in inland locations. The presence of increasing numbers of people with talent, experience and connections provides a slowly diversifying economic base as specialist services are exported from the area.

There is a relatively modest growth in seasonally rented accommodation, as virtually all growth is in the summer when vacancies are high. However, there is continued strong growth in seasonal residences occupied by owner occupiers as the area is seen as increasingly attractive.

Growth in this scenario is likely to be limited by the availability of land and building services.

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1 Introduction

This report presents a Socio-Economic Analysis of Growth Issues around Jindabyne, Adaminaby, Berridale and Dalgety in the Snowy River Shire.

This study is part of a wider, ongoing review of the Local Environmental Plan 1997 (LEP 1997), Snowy River Shire Council.

Specifically, the objectives of the work as outlined in the brief are to:

Provide the Council with information relating to residential land supply and demand which can be used: a. In community workshops to facilitate discussion; b. As a basis to develop options for urban growth and development, rural residential estate development, rural living, as well as associated land for tourism, commercial and industrial use; and c. As a rational basis for Council decision making and the preparation of statutory plans and Development Control Plans to guide and control future residential development in the Shire Enable Council to establish a baseline and ongoing mechanism for monitoring of land supply and demand in defined areas.

1.1 Basis of the Analysis

The Snowy River Shire has an unusual profile of residents combining permanent residents, seasonal residents and visitors. The Census provides an insight into aspects of these different populations as the Census collection is usually taken during the skiing season, when a large proportion of the seasonal population and visitors is present. Until 2001, data on usual residents was not available for areas smaller than the Shire making it very difficult to draw conclusions about the distribution of visitors and permanent residents, and making it hard to characterise different parts of the community.

The 2001 Census has provided detailed information about both visitors and usual residents at the level of the census collector district, (CCD), typically about 200 households, the smallest unit by which information is collated. This allows a clearer analysis of the community at the local level. However, as this information has not previously been available, it makes determination of past trends at the local level very difficult.

Even the enumeration of usual residents is misleading as it assumes that households that do not respond to census collectors are usual residents and that they have the same age and sex characteristics, on average, as the rest of the community. In fact for the Shire, they are more likely to be visitors, making published data on usual residents overstate the population in areas with high numbers of winter visitors. The Australian Bureau of Statistics also publishes estimates of estimated resident population which makes adjustments for this over counting. These are not generally available at the CCD level but have been provided to SGS for this project.

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The project has gathered evidence on the underlying drivers that affect both supply and demand from a variety of sources. No one source provides unequivocal quantitative evidence, but brought together, they provide evidence to give some confidence to make decisions about the pattern of future development.

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2 The Snowy River Shire population

The Australian and Bureau of Statistics (ABS) publishes estimates of residential population at the LGA level. These are based on the findings of the Census, and between Census periods are adjusted according to known changes in indicators such as school enrolment, social security registrations, and Medicare changes of address. Estimates made between the Census dates are adjusted after the next census and often require significant revision. Past experience has shown inter-census estimates of ERP generally to be low.

The estimated resident population can vary significantly from the census count as it includes allowances for normal residents away on the day of the census and under enumeration. In the case of Snowy River Shire, it reduces over-estimates of usual population arising from non-responding visitors assumed to be residents.

In addition to estimated resident population, the ABS also prepares population projections. Projections are based on the extrapolation of past trends given certain assumptions about future trends in births, deaths, and migration. As the ABS notes in their publications, he should not be treated as forecasts but merely the projection of what would occur given certain assumptions.

Table 1 shows a time series of Snowy River Shire population using past values of estimated resident population and a future projection based on median assumptions about births, deaths, and migration.

Table 1. Snowy River Population, past and projected, 1991 – 2022

Year Estimated Resident Population Year Projected Population

1991 5 550 2006 7 864 1992 5 700 2007 7 983 1993 5 790 2008 8 101 1994 5 960 2009 8 218 1995 6 160 2010 8 332 1996 6 270 2011 8 445 1997 6 410 2012 8 555 1998 6 590 2013 8 668 1999 6 790 2014 8 777 2000 6 930 2015 8 887 2001 7 202 2016 8 997 2002 7 331 2017 9 104 2003 7 322 2018 9 210 2004 7 322 2019 9 315 2005 2020 9 420

Source: ABS

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Figure 1. Snowy River Shire Estimated Resident Population

Estimated Resident Population

8 000

7 000

6 000

5 000

4 000

3 000

2 000

1 000

0 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Source: ABS

The growth in resident population has been remarkably steady with an average of 143 persons per year from 1991 to 1996 rising to and average of 184 persons per year from 1996 to 2001. Based on anecdotal accounts of recent surges in demand for housing, it is quite likely that the trend since 2001 will be revised upward at the next census.

The trend in estimated resident population over time simplifies a complex situation. There is not a population of the Snowy River Shire but three that are of interest. • The permanent population, best captured by the estimated resident population figures given above; • The visitor population strongly driven by the Shire’s role as a tourism destination with a strong winter peak; • The seasonal resident population, distinguished from visitors in that seasonal residents are either employed in the Shire during the peak season or are owners of property and stay here regularly at some times of the year.

Each of these requires provision for accommodation, generates employment and requires local government and other infrastructure and services. Each has different requirements. The number and distribution of each needs to be known for effective planning.

For the purposes of the present project, we are also interested in the distribution of population among the towns of the Shire. Until 2001, Census statistics were not available by usual resident at any level smaller than the LGA. This meant that the growth or decline of different parts of the LGA could not be determined with any confidence from published census data.

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Table 2 compares the published usual resident numbers to the estimated resident population by local area. The estimated resident population is 239 less than the published usual population from the census. Most of the reduction occurs in Jindabyne and the ski resorts.

Table 2. Distribution of usual residents and estimated resident population, 2001

Usual Residents Estimated resident population

Count Share Count Share Townships and immediate surrounds Jindabyne and surrounds 2882 38.7% 2775 38.5% Thredbo and Perisher 1408 18.9% 1300 18.0% Berridale 767 10.3% 762 10.6% Adaminaby and nearby townships 564 7.6% 562 7.8% Kalkite 98 1.3% 98 1.4% Dalgety township 66 0.9% 66 0.9%

Rural Between Jindabyne, Dalgety and Berridale 480 6.4% 476 6.6% South of Jindabyne 293 3.9% 289 4.0% Barry and Alpine Ways 159 2.1% 156 2.2% Thredbo Valley 151 2.0% 150 2.1% All other rural 578 7.8% 573 8.0%

Total 7446 100.0% 7207 100.%

Source: ABS 2001 Census, Profile of Usual Residents, Table U01 by CCD ABS Estimated Resident Population, consultancy product by request

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Figure 2. Distribution of usual residents, 2001

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The distribution of residents across the Shire based on the estimated resident population is shown in Figure 2. The outlined areas represent Census collector districts (CCDs). The map is shaded to reflect the population density in each CCD. The map shows the extent to which population is concentrated in the urban areas, particularly Jindabyne and to a lesser extent Berridale. Rural residential population is located mostly around Jindabyne.

In 2001, just under 39% of the usual residents of the Shire lived in Jindabyne and immediate surrounds. A surprisingly high 18% of reported usual residents are resident in the resort areas of Thredbo and Perisher. About 21% live in other townships in the Shire. Usual residents in rural areas of the Shire are mostly concentrated south of Jindabyne (14%) with all other rural areas of the Shire holding the remaining 8%.

At the time of the 2001 Census, taken during the ski season, visitor and seasonal resident numbers swelled the population across the LGA by about 2½ times. Figure 3 shows the distribution of visitors and seasonal residents on census night, 2001, by CCD, and Table 3 summarises it by area. Eighty seven percent of visitors and seasonal residents present on census night were in Jindabyne and surrounds, the ski resorts or Thredbo Valley. Of the rest of the Shire, only Berridale and Adaminaby and nearby townships had any significant number of visitors.

Table 3. Distribution of visitors and seasonal residents, 2001 Census night

Count Share

Townships and immediate surrounds Jindabyne and surrounds 4 273 37.8% Thredbo and Perisher 4 958 43.9% Berridale 581 5.1% Adaminaby and nearby townships 498 4.4% Kalkite 49 0.4% Dalgety township 0 0.0% Rural Between Jindabyne, Dalgety and Berridale 192 1.7% South of Jindabyne 36 0.3% Barry and Alpine Ways 98 0.9% Thredbo Valley 564 5.0% All other rural 41 0.4% Total 11 292 100.0%

Source: Calculated from ABS 2001 Census, Profile of Usual Residents, Table U01 and Basic Community Profile, Table B01, by CCD

The impact of these seasonal visitors can be appreciated by looking at the ratio of visitors and seasonal residents to usual residence in each of the CCD’s of the Shire, also shown in Figure 3. The maps show the highest concentration of visitors and seasonal residents in the Kosciuszko resorts, the lake edge CCD’s in Jindabyne, and the Station Resort. In contrast, areas even within Jindabyne such as south of the sports ground up to Gippsland Street showed a much smaller proportion of visitors to residents. Areas that might be regarded as satellite suburbs such as East Jindabyne, Tyrolean, Lakewood, and Kalkite show quite low increases in seasonal population in comparison to Jindabyne Centre. Six of the mostly rural CCDs show very little gain in numbers, less than 30%.

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Figure 3. Ratio of seasonal population to usual residents on census night, 2001

Ratio of Visitors/Seasonal Residents to Usual Residents on Census Day 2.8 to 11.8 (5) 1.4 to 2.8 (6) 0.7 to 1.4 (4) 0.35 to 0.7 (7) 0 to 0.35 (6) 115115

230230 5858 3636 ADAMINABYADAMINABY

LakeLake EucumbeneEucumbene

123123

218218

125125 9898 476476 9898 317317 317317 213213 LakeLake JindabyneJindabyne 213213 106106 LakeLake JindabyneJindabyne 436436 371371 BERRIDALEBERRIDALE 445445 926926 398398 114114 114114 150150 132132 358358 132132 416416 JINDABYNEJINDABYNE 154154 DALGETYDALGETY 539539 6666 289289

156156

142142

0 15 30 kilometres

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This pattern is consistent with the comments made by many local residents during the consultation that full-time residents preferred to avoid the town center during the peak season. They regard the satellite suburbs and even more so the outlying rural residential locations as something of a sanctuary from the intensive activity of the ski season.

The census records whether a visitor was counted in a private residence or not. Those not in a private residence could be in a hotel, hospital, nursing home, jail, boarding school or other institution. In the Snowy Shire in winter, these will overwhelmingly be hotels, motels and ski resorts.

Table 4 shows that on census day, about two thirds of seasonal residents and visitors were in hotels or other forms of commercial accommodation. Of those in private residences, it is likely that a portion are renting on a commercial or semi-commercial basis and the rest have a second home in the Shire which they use for part of the year.

The numbers in commercial accommodation reflect availability, with high proportions in the resort towns, followed by Jindabyne and surrounds, Berridale and relatively less in Adaminaby and other rural areas. Jindabyne hosts about 70% of the visitors in commercial accommodation and about 62% of the seasonal residents outside of KNP on census day.

Table 4. Type of accommodation for visitors

Hotels etc Private Total visitors

Jindabyne and surrounds 2926 1347 4273 Kalkite 49 49 Berridale 571 10 581 Dalgety 2 2 Adaminaby and surrounds 227 271 498 Perisher and Thredbo 4434 524 4958 Total other rural 457 474 931

Total 8615 2677 11292

Source: Calculated from ABS 2001 Census, Profile of Usual Residents, Table U01 and Basic Community Profile, Table B01, by CCD

2.1.1 The pattern of seasonal variation

The Census night in 2001 was Tuesday, August 7. This was not the highest night for seasonal visitors for the year. The peak seasonal visitation is higher than shown in Table 4 and Figure 3. An indication of how seasonal peaks relate to usual resident numbers is given by examining variations in the flow through the Jindabyne sewage treatment plant. These treatment plant statistics can also be used to assess the trend in growth of population for the area of Jindabyne and surrounds served by the plant.

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Figure 4 shows the variation in flow to the Jindabyne treatment plant for an 11 year period. The most striking characteristics of the treatment plant flows are the strong seasonal variation. Peak monthly average flows are about four times summer minimums, significantly more than the roughly 2½ times ratio of seasonal residents to usual residents given by the census statistics. There is also a significant variation in winter peaks from year to year.

Figure 4. Jindabyne treatment plant throughput, 1991-2002

2 500

2 000

1 500

1 000 y = 1.0016x + 719.21

500 Average Daily Throughput Daily Average (Kl) kilolitres -

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 1 2 -91 9 -92 9 -93 9 -94 9 -95 9 -96 9 -97 9 -98 9 -99 9 -00 0 -01 0 -02 0 Jan Jul-Jan Jul-Jan Jul-Jan Jul-Jan Jul-Jan Jul-Jan Jul-Jan Jul-Jan Jul-Jan Jul-Jan Jul-Jan Jul-

Source: Graph supplied by Snowy River Shire

The calculated trendline for the nearly 12 year period shows an average monthly increase of 0.16% or an annual increase of 1.9%. However much of this is attributable to changes in the annual peak flows.

An estimated flow per capita was derived by Council officers by assuming the population count on census day corresponded to treatment plant flows at that time. Historical monthly treatment plant flows have then been used to assess population changes in Jindabyne over the previous years and since the census.

Figure 5 uses the average flows from November to May and the estimated ratio of population to flow to show the implied changes in average non-peak period population served by the treatment plant from 1991 to 2002. Taking the average over a seven-month period provides a more reliable indication than taking the value for any one month, which may be quite volatile due to variations in visitor numbers. This overstates permanent population as there are significant numbers of visitors for much of the summer season.

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The seven-month average tends not to change significantly over much of the 1990s, but shows a strong increase from 2000 to 2002. While this could be taken as an indication of strongly increasing population, it is notably smaller than the strong decrease from 1991 to 1993, or even the volatility of the early 1990s. It is likely that this variability is due to changes in the number of visitors and seasonal residents in the summertime as much as it is changes in permanent population.

Figure 5. Implied average population, November to May based on treatment flows

3500

3000

2500

2000

1500

1000

500

0 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002

Source: Data supplied by Snowy River Shire

2.1.2 Visitors in Private Residences and Seasonal Residents

As noted above, the seasonal peak arises from both visitors and seasonal residents. A proportion of visitors will be accommodated in hotels, motels, and other licensed commercial tourist accommodation. However, tourism visitor research shows that these forms of commercial accommodation account for a relatively modest part of the total number of visitors to the region.

There are about 8000 visitor beds in hotels and motels in the Shire, about the number estimated to be occupied on census night. These clearly cannot accommodate the peak visitor numbers which are estimated to be nearly double that.

According to a Tourism New South Wales regional overview of visitors to the Snowy Mountains Tourism Region, 29% of visitor nights were spent in a rented house, apartment, unit or flat, 16%

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in friends or relatives properties and only 11% in standard hotels or motor inns. This is in contrast with statewide statistics for NSW where fewer than 10% of visitors stay in a rented house, apartment, unit or flat. Clearly there are a large number of dwellings that are occupied seasonally, many of which are also rented out for visitors.

There has been a recent tightening of enforcement by the Shire on the rental to visitors of private dwellings that are not registered and accredited as visitor accommodation. Accredited dwellings must meet higher standards for fire safety, etc. than standard private residences. Many unaccredited dwellings have as a result upgraded their standards and applied for accreditation. Some in zones where visitor accommodation is not permitted, owners may no longer take visitor rentals. However, in practice this may be hard to fully police as it is likely that many of the rentals are negotiated among networks of contacts in Sydney and other major centres.

Many permanent and seasonal residents enjoy hosting visitors to the area. It is likely but not easily verified that a significant number of visitors stay with friends and relatives as non-paying guests.

Some indication of the scale of seasonal residents that own property and occupy it only periodically can be gained by looking at the proportion of properties on the Shire’s records of ratepayers whose mailing address is not within the Shire. These are likely to be a mix of persons with a second seasonal home and those with investment properties that they rent, either full time through the year or seasonally.

This is summarized in Table 5 below. The numbers in this table need to be interpreted with some care: • Some of the properties with mailing addresses outside the Shire may be managed by accountants or other agents whose offices are located outside the Shire. This effect should be small. • As the assessment is made on the basis of postcode and some Shire residents share the 2630 postcode with Cooma, Cooma residents that own property in the Shire are counted as having addresses within the Shire. • Some properties will be commercial accommodation, both hotels and motels but also houses, flats and apartments registered for casual rental. • Some properties will be rented casually or loaned to friends but not registered as commercial accommodation. The number rented in this category should be reduced due to recent crackdowns but the remaining number may still be significant. • Some properties are occupied seasonally for the ski season by their owners. Others are occupied seasonally for the summer season (fishing and other outdoor activities). Some are occupied off and on during the year. • Some investment properties provide accommodation for full time residents as tenants and other as seasonal workers staying for over 6 months, not ‘visitors’. • The analysis shown is by locality of the property as listed on the data base provided, grouped where possible into the areas shown in the table. It is based on a list of all ratepayers, some of whom own multiple properties. It also includes properties that are not dwellings and properties that are undeveloped.

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In locations that have a high proportion of properties that are owned outside of the shire, but show low levels of visitor and seasonal residents on census night 2001, it may be reasonable to assume that most are used for summer seasonal use.

The table shows that nearly half of ratepayers have addresses outside of the Shire. A number of areas have particularly high portions of ratepayers outside of the Shire. Over 20% of ratepayers have addresses in Sydney. Many of these own multiple properties.

Table 5. Proportion of properties with ratepayers mailing address not in the Shire

Postal address Postal address Total % out of in shire out of shire ratepayers shire

High ‘out of shire’ Dalgety 33 120 153 78% Anglers Reach 54 118 172 69% Old Adaminaby 25 45 70 64% Tyrolean Village 59 90 149 60% Kalkite Village 74 103 177 58% Jindabyne 910 1182 2092 57% Crackenback 94 97 191 51%

Low ‘out of shire’ Parish of Clyde 70 59 129 46% East Jindabyne 137 86 223 39% Parish of Abington 54 28 82 34% Adaminaby 205 81 286 28% Berridale 534 199 733 27% Parish of Moonbah 100 22 122 18%

All other areas 812 462 1274 36%

Shire total 3161 2692 5853 46%

Snowy Shire rate payer mailing list addresses

The relatively high ownership of property by those outside of the Shire has a number of implications. For the purposes of considering demand for property, population and property values, some of the key implications are: • Urban property markets, particularly Sydney, will strongly influence the ability and willingness to pay for property in the Shire as the urban markets strengthen or decline. • With so many properties used as second or vacation homes, the value of a property will be influenced by this use in competition with other uses such as housing for permanent residents or even productive agricultural use. • Seasonal housing is usually only occupied for a small portion of the year, affecting both the scale and continuity of demand for retail and other population driven economic sectors.

Anecdotally, many seasonal residents choose to move to the region permanently upon retirement. This is supported by the analysis of migration trends in the next chapter.

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2.2 Summary of Population Groups

The permanent population has grown steadily over the past 15 years. The greatest concentration is around Jindabyne and growth in population has been strongest there.

Winter visitation is essentially mature, but varies according to the quality of the ski season. Summer visitation is gradually increasing.

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3 Resident population characteristics and change

While all people – permanent residents, seasonal residents and visitors – have an impact on the shire, permanent residents have the greatest influence being here all of the time. This chapter focuses on the characteristics of this group.

3.1 Recent indicators of resident population growth

The ABS have provided estimates of the resident population by collector district since 2001. These are summarised in Table 6 and shown by CCD in Figure 6. The estimates are based on allocating total changes in resident population for the Shire across the CCDs. The total ERP is based on a variety of statistics such as Medicare registrations. The allocation of changes to CCDs includes consideration of the relative number of building starts in each CCD. Thus the estimates are not based on counts and should not be treated as highly reliable. As noted above, past experience has shown that inter-census estimates of resident population for the Shire have typically been low.

Table 6. Estimated Growth in Resident Population

Estimated resident population

2001 2004 Growth Townships and immediate surrounds Jindabyne and surrounds 2775 2961 6.7% Thredbo and Perisher 1300 1277 -1.8% Berridale 762 781 2.5% Adaminaby and nearby townships 562 561 -0.2% Kalkite 98 109 11.2% Dalgety township 66 65 -1.5%

Rural Between Jindabyne, Dalgety and Berridale 476 490 2.9% South of Jindabyne 289 317 9.7% Barry and Alpine Ways 156 154 -1.3% Thredbo Valley 150 151 0.7% All other rural 573 565 -1.4%

Total 7207 7322 1.6%

Bearing these limitations in mind the pattern show by the estimates is for continued, relatively strong growth in Jindabyne and surrounding rural areas, growth in Berridale but no growth or declines in the other townships and outer rural areas. This is consistent with long term patterns.

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Figure 6. Estimated Growth in Resident Population, 2001-2004

Growth Rate per year (%) 2001-2004 -0.71 to 0 0 to 0.25 0.25 to 0.5 0.5 to 1 1 to 2.7

ADAMINABY

Lake Eucumbene

JINDABYNE BERRIDALE

Lake Jindabyne

DALGETY

0 10 20 kilometres

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Some have argued that increasing school enrolments show population growth in the smaller townships of the Shire. School enrolments are relatively poor predictors of total population and households because they do not reflect the numbers of households without children or with non- school age children. A significant number of those moving to the Shire are early retirees without children.

The trend in school enrolments for the past decade is shown in Figure 7.

Figure 7. School enrolments for primary schools, 1996 – 2005, (+projected for Dalgety)

350

300

250 Adaminaby Berridale 200 Dalgety Jindabyne 150

100

0 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Enrolments

Both Dalgety and Adaminaby have had rises in school enrolments this year after relatively flat but slightly declining long term trends. This does not necessarily correspond to a growth in population. Children entering the schools were reported to be the children of long-term residents, with only two new arrivals to the area. As one principal put it, “variations in enrolments reflect the breeding cycle.”

Further evidence of this is the forecast for enrolments for Dalgety, also shown in Figure 6. While there has been growth in recent years, the forecast based on the ages of potential students and those known to be leaving (graduating) is for declining enrolments from the current high of 33 down to a low of 22 in 2007.

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3.1.1 Age and sex profile

The age profile for Snowy River Shire estimated resident population is shown in Figure 8, showing changes from 1991 to 2002. The profile shows a pronounced increase in age groups over age 35 and children under 20, and a decline in the number of residents aged 20 to 35. However, this shift does not arise from a simple ageing of the population from 1991 to 2002 but is driven to a substantial extent by migration – both in and out of the Shire.

Figure 8. Age profile for Snowy River Shire estimated resident population.

800

700

600 Persons 1991 Persons 1996 Persons 2002 500

400

300

200

100

0 0 - 4 5 - 9 10 - 15 - 20 - 25 - 30 - 35 - 40 - 45 - 50 - 55 - 60 - 65 - 70 - 75 - 80 - 85+ 14 19 24 29 34 39 44 49 54 59 64 69 74 79 84

Source: ABS Estimated Resident Population (3218, May 2003: Regional Statistics NSW, 1362.1)

There was a significant surplus of males in the Shire based on the estimated resident population in 2002, with males making up 54% of the population. The surplus occurred in every age category from 5 to 80, but was most pronounced in the age groups from 15 to 25. (Figure 8)

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Figure 9. Profile of age by sex, 2002

400

350

300 Males 00 Females 00 250

200

150 Ususal residents Ususal 100

0 85+ 0 - 0 4 - 5 9 10 - 14 10 - 19 15 - 24 20 - 29 25 - 34 30 - 39 35 - 44 40 - 49 45 - 54 50 - 59 55 - 64 60 - 69 65 - 74 70 - 79 75 - 84 80 Age groups

Source: ABS Estimated Resident Population (3218, May 2003: Regional Statistics NSW, 1362.1)

3.1.2 Natural Increase

Natural increase is the difference between births and deaths. These are summarised for the period from 1997 to 2001 in Table 7. As can be seen, the average natural increase for the period is 44 persons, accounting for just over one quarter of the average annual growth in estimated resident population for the period of 185 persons per year.

Table 7. Births Deaths and Natural Increase, Alpine Region LGAs, 1997-01

1997-1998 1998-1999 1999-2000 2000-2001 2001-2002

Births 77 85 76 64 Deaths 31 28 27 32 Increase 46 57 49 32 38

All new young residents born in the Shire appear at the left hand edge of Figure 7. There was clearly a rise in the population aged 0-4 yrs from 1991 to 1996, and this held in 2002. But not all of the children in the youngest age groups were Shire born, as can be seen from two indicators: • Births averaged about 76 per year in the late 1990s which would give about 380 children aged 0-4 over a five year period. However, the 2002 estimated resident population shows 463 children in the Shire suggesting a net in-migration of 80 children in this age group.

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• In 1991 there were about 400 children aged 0-4 years. Five years later, there were 430 children in the age group 5-9, showing a net immigration of 30. The same effect can be seen for children age 0-4 from 1996 to 2002.

This upward trend between five year intervals is apparent for all age groups up to age 29 showing that migration is the major contributor to the population growth of both children, young adults, and as we shall see, older age groups.

3.1.3 Migration trends

Net inward migration has accounted for over three quarters of the population growth in the Shire in the past decade, about 140 persons per year in recent years. Of all the factors contributing to population growth and demand for additional development land, migration is the most volatile, although as shown in Figure 1, trends have been remarkably steady for most of the last 10-15 years.

The characteristics of migrants in different age and family situations and their motives for migration are significantly different. For some of these, flows can be strongly affected by external as well as local conditions.

While net migration may be modest, movements in and out of an area are many times larger. Thus, a small percentage reduction for in-migration while out-migration remains constant can change the net growth by a large amount.

Any conclusions reached must always recognise the significantly unpredictable elements of migration. Thus a number of alternative scenarios are proposed to encourage flexibility in responding to actual outcomes.

Overseas Migration

The Snowy River Shire is not a significant destination for new arrivals to Australia. For those specifying the Shire as the usual place of residence in the 2001 census, less than 1% had arrived in Australia in the previous 5 years. (census U10)

About 86% of usual residents are Australian by birth (where the birth country was specified). The next largest group (4.7%) were UK born, followed by New Zealanders ((1.3%). (U09). Over 80% of both groups have been in the country 10 years or more.

Interstate Migration

The source of interstate migrants to and from the Shire is shown in Table 8. There is a broad pattern that migrants come from and go to places in roughly similar proportions. Exceptions are that migrants are slightly more likely to go to Queensland and the ‘rest of NSW’ than come from there and they are slightly more likely to come from the ACT than to go there.

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Sydney is clearly the largest source and destination. The south coast of NSW is also a significant source and destination. Within the local region, only Cooma Monaro plays a significant migration role. Queensland plays twice as large a role as Victoria for in-migrants and nearly four times as large for out-migrants. There are also migrants departing overseas, but these are not tracked by the census and so are not tabulated below.

Table 8. Source and destination of migrants

Source of migrants Destination of Migrants 1995-96 2000-01 1995-96 2000-01

Sydney 32.0% 35.9% 32.3% 27.0% Rest of NSW 17.5% 16.1% 18.3% 18.8% Cooma-Monaro (A) 7.1% 4.9% 5.5% 6.9% Illawarra 7.3% 5.4% 11.0% 5.7% Eurobodalla (A) 1.0% 1.3% 1.8% 2.5% Bega Valley (A) 0.9% 1.7% 0.9% 4.8% Bombala (A) 0.9% 0.0% 0.3% 0.3% Tumbarumba (A) 0.4% 0.4% 0.3% 0.0% Tumut (A) 1.3% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0%

Total NSW 68.5% 66.1% 70.4% 66.0%

Melbourne 1.8% 2.1% 2.4% 3.9% E. Gippsland (S) 0.9% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% Rest of Victoria 1.8% 2.1% 0.3% 1.4%

Total Victoria 4.5% 4.7% 2.7% 5.3%

Qld 9.6% 10.0% 13.8% 16.2% ACT 7.1% 8.1% 6.8% 6.6% Rest of Australia 3.0% 4.5% 6.2% 6.0% Overseas 7.3% 6.6%

Source: Special data analysis by ABS based on place of residence one year prior to 1996 ad 2001 Census

Figure 10 shows the age profile of migrants to and from the Shire, in the year prior to the 2001 Census. The graph shows that the young adult age group from 20 to 35 is the most active for both in and out migration. These are the only age groups in which net migration is negative, particularly so for the 20 – 29 year olds.

Figure 10 shows the same profiles but for the year before the 1996 Census. While the pattern is broadly similar, the proportion of activity in the young adult age groups was even greater, but with a smaller net deficit in those groups due to higher in-migration of young adults.

The location of residents one year ago provides a one-year snap shot of migration. This may be subject to one-year anomalies. The census also asks where respondents lived 5 years ago. Analysis of this question confirmed that the profile is sustained over time, with older residents moving in and out in much smaller numbers but being much more likely to stay.

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Figure 10. Age profile of migrants, 2000-2001

30.0% 100

25.0% 60

20.0% 20

In-migration (share, left axis) 15.0% -20 Out-migration Net Migration (right axis) 10.0% -60 Netmigranst year per Proportionof Migrants

5.0% -100

0.0% -140 0-4 5-9 85+ 10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84 Age groups

Figure 11. Age profile of migrants, 1995-1996

30.0% 60

25.0% 30

20.0% 0

In-migration (share, left axis) 15.0% Out-migration -30 Net Migration (right axis)

10.0% -60 Netmigranst year per Proportionof Migrants

5.0% -90

0.0% -120 0-4 5-9 85+ 10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84 Age groups

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3.1.4 Migration drivers

Migration is driven by a range of factors: • Relative housing costs – prices have risen strongly up to 2004 in Sydney and other major urban areas. Generally regional prices have followed with a lag, but relative affordability still favours inland regional areas compared to Sydney metropolitan or coastal prices. Population in Sydney is expected to continue to grow due to migration, even as more and more people chose to leave to find more affordable housing or a less urban lifestyle, particularly those no longer dependent upon employment (ie retirees). • Lifestyle preferences – families seeking a ‘seachange’ or other escape from the city are increasingly finding coastal areas priced out of reach or simply too developed to be the change they are looking for. The coastal policy is seeking to control this over-development, but in doing so it will constrain the opportunities for additional residents to move to the coast and increase costs. More inland regional areas are being discovered – the ‘C(ountry) change’ and the ‘T(ree) change’. Snowy Shire is well placed to capitalise on this from the high recognition in major centres as a result of the very high visitation levels achieved during the ski season. • Employment prospects – While lifestyle and affordability create an attraction to an area, working age households have to find employment to stay. Areas such as Snowy Shire have a small and narrow economic base with relatively fewer alternatives for a family seeking work. Much of the employment that is here is seasonal and not necessarily well paid. The opportunities for entrepreneurial individuals may be constrained by distance from major centres and markets. • Family life cycle – The attractiveness of the area varies with the age and stage of the family. This is discussed further below. • Connections to family and friends – These typically tie a household to an area where they have grown up, been long established or where their children may have moved. As discussed below, this can attract some to the Shire or draw them away.

An analysis of population movements into and out of Tasmania by the Department of Treasury and Finance showed that immigration to the State was strongly correlated with relative housing affordability, while out-migration was correlated with relative employment prospects. It is quite likely that the same principal drivers will apply in many regional areas, although the required data is not available to repeat the analysis for the Snowy River Shire.

These drivers will affect older and younger age groups differently resulting in varying tendencies for age groups to settle in or leave the Shire. The effect of these different issues is examined for a number of different age groups and family situations.

Young Singles (15 – 35)

Many young singles are attracted to the Shire through their engagement in skiing and winter sports or through the availability of seasonal employment. Once here, the prospect of a mountain based lifestyle is attractive for many at an age where exploring possibilities for a period of time is the

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norm. The attraction to snow sports is strongly dominated by males, as reflected in the extreme sex ratio in this age group.

At this age, most individuals are renters, and many are prepared to share a flat or live in employer provided accommodation or other less permanent housing. Many may spend parts of the year as seasonal workers, staying for more or less time each year according to the opportunities that arise.

However, for younger persons in this age group, the opportunities for further education are limited in the Shire. Although work is plentiful in winter, in the summer season it is much harder to find. For older males in this age group, the extreme sex ratio makes it hard to find partners, although correspondingly easier for women. Many Shire raised young adults will be in this group.

These factors are unlikely to change in the foreseeable future. There will continue to be a steady stream of young people coming to the region for a few years before moving on. If summer employment improves, a larger proportion may remain. However, employment in tourism tends to attract younger workers, and they may seek other more varied opportunities as they grow older, for which they will have to leave the region.

Family formation (30 – 40)

This age group may also be attracted to the area for its lifestyle. However this group may also be attracted by the prospect of housing which is much more affordable than large urban areas like Sydney or even coastal alternatives.

People in early family formation years often rent until they can get established, but usually aspire to purchase a home when they can. Many are seeking a place to raise children and will have a preference for a separate house. As first homebuyers they are seeking affordability.

Gaining secure employment is important at this stage of life, particularly when children arrive. The strong seasonality of the region makes this a challenge. Other issues that may be of concern are access to childcare and health and education opportunities for children. These are increasingly well catered for in Jindabyne and near Cooma, but families in some other parts of the Shire may find difficulties for some services.

The migration profiles show that this age group are the next most likely to arrive after young adults. While there is a net in-migration (that is, more arrive than leave), there is a relatively high rate of departure.

Established Families (35 –50)

As with other age groups, the lifestyle is likely to be the attraction with lower cost housing providing the extra incentive. Other motives mentioned by this age group is the safety of the area for raising children and the chance to become involved in the community in a meaningful way. This is also an age at which those that grew up in the region but moved away for education or a career are most likely to consider returning.

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This age group is more likely to have equity in a house in the location they are moving from. They are also likely to be established in a career. Family, employment and school ties make relocating at this time of life relatively a bigger adjustment that for younger households. However, if moving to areas where housing costs less, this can provide a financial cushion until the family gets established. They are likely to want to purchase a home.

An established career and developed skills mean that this age group are more likely to bring employment with them or have the skills to establish a new enterprise in the region. They will certainly have established expectations about services, which sometime may be harder to meet. Because the move will be a bigger adjustment, they are more likely to check out the things that matter first and have a strategy in mind to address these.

Until recently, the lack of secondary school alternatives meant that many households in this age group departed when their children reached high school age. Limitations on career advancement may in time prove to be a motive to move back to a larger center for some. However, when choosing to move it may be harder for this group to move to a major urban centre due to the large housing price difference. They are more likely to more to a regional area or lower cost capital.

As expected, the numbers in this age group moving to the Shire are less than for the family formation age group. However, the proportion leaving is a little over half those arriving.

Later career, empty nesters (50 – 65)

This group has much in common with the established families except that it generally has shed concerns of raising and schooling children. This group will have even more equity in a house and be well established in a career with many connections and opportunities.

At this age those moving are much more likely to have a plan that will see them to the end of their working career, even if the local employment situation has some limitations. If they own a house in Sydney or some of the coastal areas outright, they can even bring forward retirement by a few years. This group and those older are most likely to find a move to a regional area ‘pays off’ when housing prices boom in the metropolitan areas and least likely to suffer from inability to find work.

While no longer having children at home provides some more flexibility, this is generally an age where families have established deeper connections where they live and the propensity to move is much less than at younger ages. Correspondingly the number moving is again less than for younger ages. However, for the reasons noted, there are also far fewer departing. This is the age of maximum net in-migration.

Preparing for Life in Retirement (65-69)

This age often is the time of preparation for how a couple or individual will spend their retired years. Many begin to have health concerns at this age. More will be grandparents and want to have

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time close to their grandchildren. Having left the workforce, they will have a clearer idea of what income they will have to live on and will be less adventurous about new housing and living options.

People in this age group that are having health problems will be particularly concerned about access to health care and the options for mobility should they lose the ability to drive. Locating in towns may be preferred if they are ‘committed’ to the region but need greater access to services.

While the number of those moving to the Shire at this age is again smaller than for younger age groups, there is a noticeable peak in departures. While net migration is still inward, it is the lowest for all age groups over 35 discussed so far.

Older retirees (70+)

While some households in this age group will relocate independently and by choice, many of these will be moving to the Shire to live with younger family members, particularly those over age 75. For older persons that have lost the ability to drive, this can be problematic, particularly if their younger, active son or daughter has chosen a rural residential lifestyle that requires a car to get anywhere.

The pattern of distribution of older persons is in fact concentrated in Berridale, rural areas and in the areas around Anglers Reach and Old Adaminaby. The proportion of older persons in and around Jindabyne are the lowest.

Many of the rural areas also have average or above average numbers of children suggesting that elderly may be living with younger familes. Near Anglers Reach and Adaminaby, there are well below average numbers of children. Some of these will be long time residents ageing in place.

Where the older person is dependent on others, they will be much less likely to move away. Numbers moving into the Shire in this age group are the smallest of any age group, but the number leaving is far smaller. Further, the numbers arriving have increased significantly from 1996 to 2001 and this age group is one of the fastest growing in the Shire.

Summary of Growth Drivers

While there are many variations and exceptions to the circumstances described, they provide an underlying framework that fits well with the observed migration trends. In considering future population growth prospects, we will explore the growth prospects for employment growth before considering a number of population growth scenarios.

As the Situation Analysis prepared in 2002 observed:

The Jindabyne area (including the adjacent lakeside communities and the ski resorts) has two distinct but related future possibilities: • As a growing tourist destination offering an increasingly year round range of attractions

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• As a ‘seachange in the mountains’ community attracting central Sydney (and other) residents that have the ability to work from a relatively remote location while pursuing business that reaches beyond the region or that can capitalize on the tourist or other locally based industries.

• The traditional primary production economic base of the region is supporting fewer families and employees over time. This offers little prospect for employment growth. • Winter tourism is widely regarded as mature. Tourism offers significant potential for economic growth if non-winter activity and visitation can be increased. This is most likely to take place within KNP and around the south of Lake Jindabyne, but also in association with fishing in the lakes and streams and other attractions. This is the clear tourism strategy for the region. • Population driven economic activity will result from a growing population of retired persons in the Shire. This group spends less than working age people, but provides a gradually growing year round demand for goods and services that will create additional employment opportunities. The rate of growth of the retired persons is likely to be driven to a large extent by the relative affordability of the area compared to other lifestyle areas. The growing older population will also increase the scope of services that will be required locally instead of being provided from Cooma or Canberra. • Significant employment growth in other sectors and even within tourism will require greater control of the value chain (R&D, design, marketing, distribution and sales) or development of services sold outside the region. Jindabyne has the greatest prospect to develop export services through its strong links with Sydney for those that have specialist skills to offer. This is the least predictable sector for growth.

It is not possible to give a definite projection of future population growth. The following sections discuss land supply and then the economic drivers that will affect growth rates, hence need for land. The last chapter looks as future growth scenarios and the implications for each.

3.2 Summary of resident population trends

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4 Housing supply

4.1 Current stock and past growth

The supply of dwellings in the Snowy River Shire is summarised in Table 9. Three striking features are evident: • The relatively high proportion of medium density dwellings (which includes semi-detached, row or terrace houses, townhouses, flats, units and apartments). The proportion is about 30% of all dwellings for the first three census counts, rising to about 39% in the 2001 count. These ratios are quite high compared to other smaller Australian communities. • There was a high proportion of unoccupied dwellings on census night, even though it was taken during the peak winter season (though not at the actual peak). This shows the extensive use of private dwellings as seasonal accommodation in the Shire 1. The medium density dwellings show greater variability in occupancy than the separate houses, and the average rate of vacancy is higher on average. • The relative volatility in growth in housing in comparison to the relatively steady growth shown in estimated resident population.

Table 9. Dwellings in Snowy River Shire

1986 1991 1996 2001* Dwellings Unoccupied Dwellings Unoccupied Dwellings Unoccupied Dwellings Unoccupied

Separate house 1784 33.6% 2138 29.6% 2463 29.6% 2586 28.0% Medium density 881 58.5% 1033 23.7% 1144 37.0% 1736 28.5% Other dwellings 260 6.2% 522 4.2% 337 3.0% 251 5.7% Not stated 44 9.1% 19 42.1% 111 36.0% 158 25.3%

Total 2969 38.2% 3712 24.4% 4055 29.6% 4731 26.9%

ABS Census, 1996, 2001, Basic Community Profile, Time Series, various tables. * The proportion of dwellings unoccupied by type was not tabulated in the 2001 census, only the total. Share of unoccupied dwellings by type has been estimated according to trends from previous years.

The supply of dwellings in the Shire has grown at an average rate of 3.2% per year since 1986. Growth was relatively strong in the late 1980s, slowing in the early 1990s before picking back up to the long-term average from 1996 to 2001. The long-term average growth has been about 53 houses and 57 medium density dwellings per year, or a total of 110 dwellings per year.

Based on an estimated 2.7 persons per dwelling, this would accommodate a growth in shore population of 297 persons, substantially more than the estimated growth in permanent population

1 Only buildings assessed by the Census taker as private residences are included in the count of dwellings. Commercial accommodation and holiday flats are not meant to be included in this count, although some may be as they may not be clearly identifiable as such by census takers.

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of 185 persons per year. This suggests that about 40 dwellings per year (35%) are being built to accommodate seasonal residents.

The change in the growth of occupied dwellings as recorded on census day echoes this pattern, but is more variable. The number of occupied dwellings increased by and average of 8.9% per year from 1986 to 1991. It slowed to an average of 0.3% per year from 1991 to 1996 before rising to 4.8% per year for the period from 1996 to 2001. However, variances in occupied dwellings are influenced by differences in the quality of the skiing season, so not too much should be read into this pattern. What is clear is that seasonal dwellings can go into and out of use as permanent residences according to the relative strength of demand. In this respect, it is not entirely meaningful to speak of dwellings as either seasonal dwellings or permanent dwellings as this status may change.

Most of the volatility occurred in medium density dwellings, with both growth of total dwellings and growth in occupied dwellings being more even for houses. The overall trend for houses has been for growth at an average rate of 3.1% per year declining from 4.9% in the first five year period to 1.4% in the last 5 year period.

The much greater variability in growth of dwellings than in population is strongly suggestive of surges in demand for seasonal accommodation. Strong growth in dwelling numbers, in excess of the population growth rate, appears to occur during periods when metropolitan housing markets are strong, encouraging the purchase of holiday homes and investment in properties in the area.

4.1.1 Housing type by location

The mix of houses and medium density development varies enormously across the Shire. The KNP resort areas are dominated by medium density development with very few houses. Jindabyne township has over 60% medium density development within the township, but much lower levels, but less than 25% in East Jindabyne and Tyrolean and about 5% in the outlying rural residential areas. Most rural areas have very little medium density (Table 10).

Table 10. Dwelling type by location, occupied private dwellings

Location Houses Medium density Other/not spec Total

Jindabyne & surrounds 561 40.2% 704 50.4% 131 9.4% 1396 100.0% Kalkite 39 92.9% 3 7.1% 0 0.0% 42 100.0% Berridale 269 82.8% 41 12.6% 15 4.6% 325 100.0% Dalgety 25 78.1% 0 0.0% 7 21.9% 32 100.0% Adaminaby & surrounds 261 76.5% 31 9.1% 49 14.4% 341 100.0% Perisher & Thredbo 55 10.8% 413 81.5% 36 7.1% 507 100.0% Total other rural 654 79.6% 53 6.4% 22 5.6% 451 100.0%

Total Shire 1864 53.8% 1245 35.9% 356 10.3% 3465 100.0%

Source: ABS 2001 Census, Basic Community Profile Table B19 Note: other/not specified may include caravans, cabins, private lodges and employer supplied hostels not open for general public access as commercial accommodation and not institutions.

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Medium density dwellings are often preferred for seasonal accommodation, particularly for those visiting primarily in winter, as they are generally easier to secure and have less yard and garden maintenance than separate houses. Provision for medium density housing is available in 2(b) Mixed Residential, 2(v) Village and 3(b) Urban Tourist Accommodation . Medium density is permitted in at least parts of most townships.

Those visiting primarily in summer with dwellings away from Jindabyne and the winter peak areas such as Dalgety, Kalkite, Angler’s Reach and Old Adaminaby more often have separate houses, even though medium density is permitted.

4.1.2 Unoccupied dwellings by location

The pattern of unoccupied dwellings on census night can be related to several factors:

Areas with high levels of unoocupied dwellings: • Relatively high proportions of medium density dwellings, some of which are seasonally occupied by their owners and others which are rented to visitors but not fully occupied on census night (a Tuesday); • Areas which are used mostly during the summer season rather than the winter.

Areas with low levels of unoccupied dwellings: • areas with few seasonal visitors or • areas where demand for seasonal accommodation is strong and hence fill first, even if the season is not at its peak.

A possible interpretation of occupancy patterns is offered in Table 11.

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Table 11. Unoccupied dwelling by location

Location unoccupied Suggested interpretation

High proportion of seasonal accommodation, medium Jindabyne & surrounds 24.4% occupancy on census night

High proportion of seasonal accommodation with mostly Kalkite 53.8% summer use

Moderate proportion of seasonal accommodation, low Berridale 30.0% occupancy on census night

High proportion of seasonal accommodation with mostly Dalgety 43.9% summer use

High proportion of seasonal accommodation; combination Adaminaby & surrounds 42.8% of moderate occupancy on census night and high proportion of summer use

High proportion of seasonal accommodation, high Perisher & Thredbo 8.5% occupancy on census night

Moderate proportion of seasonal accommodation; low of Total other rural 27.4% moderate occupancy on census night and high proportion of summer use

Total Shire 26.9%

Source: ABS 2001 Census, Basic Community Profile Table B19

4.1.3 Housing tenure

The rate of owner-occupied households is low by Australian standards, with 45% of dwellings in the census reported as being owned or purchased by the occupier (Table 12). However, this changes when considered by dwelling type, with 65% of houses being owned or purchased and only 18% of flats, apartments and townhouses being owned or purchased. These figure are strongly affected by a high proportion of ‘other, not stated’. A portion of the ‘other, not stated’ are likely to be a combination of unusual tenure such as member owned ski lodges and workers in accommodation provided by employers under arrangements tied to employment, rather than a normal rental tenure. This could represent up to 20% of the dwelling units counted.

Table 12. Tenure by housing type

Owned or being rented other, not stated total purchased count % count % count % count % House 1 232 66.2 392 21.1 238 12.8 1 862 100.0 Medium density 217 17.5 617 49.7 408 32.9 1 242 100.0 Other, not stated 114 32.3 125 35.4 114 32.3 353 100.0

Total 1 563 45.2 1 134 32.8 760 22.0 3 457 100.0

Source: ABS 2001 Census, Basic Community Profile Table B19

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While rental is the most common form of tenure for flats, apartments and townhouses, houses still provide over 1/3 of all rental dwellings. Anecdotal comment suggested that houses were becoming more popular as holiday rental options because they can accommodate more people and provide some separation and privacy from adjacent dwellings. As with dwelling type, tenure also varies dramatically across the Shire. Rental is highest in the ski resorts and Jindabyne as are other forms of tenure, making ownership in these areas quite low (Table 13).

Table 13. Dwelling tenure by location

Location Owned Rented Other

Jindabyne and surrounds 501 35.9% 599 42.9% 296 21.2% Kalkite 27 65.2% 12 28.3% 3 6.5% Berridale 217 66.6% 80 24.5% 29 8.9% Dalgety 26 80.0% 3 10.0% 3 10.0% Adaminaby and surrounds 212 62.1% 70 20.4% 60 17.5% Perisher and Thredbo 86 17.2% 211 41.8% 207 41.0% Total other rural 510 62.1% 161 19.5% 151 18.4% Total 1,580 45.6% 1,134 32.8% 748 21.6%

Source: ABS 2001 Census, Basic Community Profile Table B19, built up from individual CCDs Totals are not the same as for Shire totals as values at the CCD level are randomised for confidentiality. Within Jindabyne and surrounds, there is a significant variation with the suburbs facing the lake and the areas around Station Resort averaging over 50% rental while the remaining areas average about one third. The Lakewood estate area has particularly low levels of rental at 18%.

Ownership elsewhere varies from 57% to 80%, levels slightly lower than in rural areas elsewhere in Australia. ‘Other’ forms of tenure are higher than would be typical, probably reflecting a combination of accommodation tied to seasonal employment and ski lodges near Adaminaby.

Only 28% of all rental properties are found outside of Jindabyne and the ski resorts. As shown below, much rental property is not available as normal year round rental.

4.1.4 Rent paid

The amount of rent paid falls into two clear groups: • The high rent group represents about 46% of all tenants and is paying in excess of $300 per week. (averaging about $500 per week). These are likely to be seasonal workers often a group sharing accommodation, or seasonal occupants renting a dwelling as a lower cost alternative to occupying a hotel. • The low rent group (54%) averages $150 per week across the Shire. These are likely to be year round tenants.

Landlords that rent seasonally typically need only 3-4 months of occupancy to get the same returns as those renting year round.

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The proportion of properties receiving high rents is high in the resorts (76%) and Jindabyne (49%) as may be expected, but also for the few rental houses in Kalkite (63%) and Dalgety (50%). For the rest of the Shire year round low rentals dominate (over 70%) (Table 14).

Table 14. Share of low and high rent properties by location

Low Rent (year round) High Rent (seasonal) Location Count Share Rent $ Count Share Rent $

Jindabyne and surrounds 307 50.7% 161 299 49.3% 503 Kalkite 4 37.5% 175 7 62.5% 600 Berridale 76 95.8% 114 3 4.2% 600 Dalgety 2 50.0% 125 2 50.0% 375 Adaminaby and surrounds 56 84.8% 119 10 15.2% 600 Perisher and Thredbo 50 23.7% 175 161 76.3% 585 Total other rural 115 71.4% 129 46 28.6% 499

Total 611 53.6% 146 528 46.4% 531

Source: ABS 2001 Census, Basic Community Profile Table B19, built up from individual CCDs Totals are not the same as for Shire totals as individual values at the CCD level are randomised for confidentiality.

The rents charged for year round rentals vary, being higher in areas where seasonal rentals are a larger part of the market. This suggests that seasonal rents are determining market rental levels in these areas.

About 40% of year round rental properties in 2001 were renting for under $130 per week, generally an affordable rent. However: • The total supply of year round rental properties was relatively small (611 dwellings). • The rent level cited does not was not related to the number of rooms or standard of property being rented. • Many are located in rural areas distant from employment and services. • These properties would not be available for seasonal workers resident in the Shire for only a few months each year. • Rents have increased strongly since the census on the back of the housing boom.

4.1.5 Trends in building and development approvals

The growth in housing up to 2001 has been shown above based on census statistics, with a variable rate of growth from 1986 to 2001. There has been anecdotal evidence of a sustained high level of activity in the residential development market since the 2001 census. This has been a dominant feature of economic activity across the country, so it would be surprising if the shire did not also reflect this.

Snowy River Shire has provided data on development application approvals by type and location for the past ten years. Due to a change in the format of recording, some of the records are not continuous and comparable for the full period. Specifically:

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• The terms dual occupancy and medium density are not recorded for any applications after 1998, with these apparently being included in dwellings or holiday dwellings as appropriate. • Tourism activity and tourism accommodation were introduced as new categories from 1999. There are no apparently equivalent entries in the data provided prior to 1999.

The chart in Figure 12 shows the trend in approvals for the period from 1995 to 2005 (first 4½ months only). The category for dwellings is the sum of separate houses, dual occupancy and medium density up to 1998. Therefore there is a discontinuity in the series as indicated by the gap in the line.

The number of approvals does not correspond to the number of new dwellings, as approvals for dual occupancy and medium density would involve multiple units. The graph suggests that there was an increase from 1998 to 1999 and a further modest increase in 2003 for private dwellings. The change in holiday dwellings was a spectacular rise in 2003, dropping back in 2004 but still high by previous standards, with levels apparently largely sustained in 2005 based on year-to-date figures. Applications for holiday dwellings do not necessarily mean construction of a new building, but often involve a change of use from a private dwelling to a holiday rental, in some cases with minor modifications required.

Figure 12. Residential development approvals

160

140

dw ellings 120 holiday dw ellings

100

0 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

Source: Development application data base provided by Snowy River Shire 2005 data is for 4½ months only.

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The chart suggest a strong growth in activity from 1995 up to 1999, although the discontinuity of records makes this uncertain. Such an increase has been supported by anecdotal comments made during community consultation. The major growth during the boom experienced Australia wide just after this, from 2000 on, is somewhat muted in the Snowy River Shire. Many regions in Australia showed increases in activity of 50%-100% with similar growth in prices.

4.1.6 Distribution of Activity

The development approvals for dwellings by location over the ten years from 1995 to 2005 are summarised in Table 15. The approvals shown for each town include the surrounding area as well as the township itself, roughly corresponding to the radius for the current plan.

The development approvals for dwellings are strongly dominated by Jindabyne and surrounds. The pattern is broadly similar in both the low-level activity years of the mid 1990s and the higher activity of the last six years. However, in later years the relative increase in activities outside of Jindabyne is somewhat greater.

Table 15. Development approvals, dwellings, by location

Location 1995-1998 1999-2005

Adaminaby 0 0.0% 18 5.2% Berridale 5 5.2% 27 7.8% Jindabyne 74 76.3% 228 66.3% Dalgety 1 1.0% 3 0.9% All other 17 17.5% 68 19.8%

All 97 100.0% 344 100.0%

Source: Development application data base provided by Snowy River Shire

The fact that there has been a spurt in dwelling development approvals in areas such as Adaminaby and some other areas while there has not been an apparent corresponding increase in permanent population suggests that increase interest in the area may be for seasonal accommodation.

For the period when records showed medium density and dual occupancy developments separately, these developments were clearly concentrated in Jindabyne and Tyrolean Village, with only a few developments elsewhere (Table 16). Some locations where medium density development is permitted show little or no activity.

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Table 16. Dual occupancy and medium density approvals, 1995-1998, by location

Location Dual Occupancy Medium Density

Jindabyne 14 8 Tyrolean Village 10 2 Berridale 1 1 All other areas 4 Total 29 11

Source: Development application data base provided by Snowy River Shire

The pattern of approvals for holiday dwellings is also concentrated in Jindabyne, and to a lesser extent, Adaminaby. As noted above, many of these approvals will be for a change of use to holiday dwelling, not necessarily construction of a new building.

Table 17. Holiday Dwelling approvals, 1995-2005, by location

Locality Count Share

Adaminaby 41 16% Berridale 8 3% Jindabyne 193 77% All other 8 3% Total 250 100% Source: Development application data base provided by Snowy River Shire

4.1.7 Public housing

The census showed 13 houses rented as public housing in 2001. According to Department of Housing records, there are now 11 public housing units in Snowy River Shire, all located in Jindabyne. This compares to 119 in Cooma, 14 in Bombala and 2 in Nimmitabel, the only other public housing in the Monaro.

The forty-year-old fibro dwellings are in two streets: The Nook and Banjo Patterson Crescent. There appears to be reasonable demand for these dwellings, even though they are in relatively modest condition.

Jindabyne and the Snowy River Shire are generally seen as relatively poor locations for public housing clients as they are more expensive for basic goods and services, impose high transport costs and are relatively far from many of the services required by this group. These services are mostly located in Cooma.

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4.2 Summary of Housing Supply

Housing supply has grown to accommodate both permanent and seasonal residents. The growth rate has been less steady than for the growth in estimated resident population. Growth in seasonal residents appears to have been more variable based on the more variable rate of growth of dwellings compared to population. About 45% of dwellings may be owned for seasonal occupation. Some housing stock moves between permanent and seasonal residents. Overall about 35% of additional housing appears to accommodate seasonal residents.

The demand for housing and land will remain to some extent unpredictable, particularly as growth is based on migration and the drivers of that growth depend on conditions outside of the region and demand for seasonal residences is even more volatile.

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5 Land Supply

The Shire approved 103 subdivisions for the period from January 1995 to May 2005. However, this included applications for single lot subdivisions from a larger parcel and applications for strata title on existing parcels up to multi-lot subdivisions creating 50 parcels or more.

The distribution of approvals is shown in Table 18, grouped into two five-year intervals. The table shows a very strong increase in approvals in the second five-year interval. It also shows that Jindabyne and area accounted for about 73% of all approvals.

Table 18. Subdivision Approvals, 1995-2004

1995-99 2000-04 1995-2004

Adaminaby area 2 5 7 Berridale area 1 6 7 Dalgety area 2 1 3 Jindabyne area 25 47 72 Other rural areas 1 8 9 Grand Total 31 67 98

Not shown in the table is that virtually all the large multi-parcel subdivisions were in the Jindabyne area. In terms of new lots created, Jindabyne area would account for more than 80% of new lots.

Over this period the pattern of lot creation was quite different between towns in other ways: • Subdivisions in the Dalgety and Adaminaby areas were mostly rural properties, producing 1-4 new parcels, generally rural small holdings. • In Berridale, new parcels were more often in the township including larger subdivisions of residential parcels and relatively few rural subdivisions. • In the Jindabyne area, subdivision activity was greatest in East Jindabyne and Tyrolean, with significant rural residential subdivision to the south of Jindabyne creating large numbers of lots. Within the township itself, 55% of subdivisions were to strata title, not necessarily creating new land parcels.

The five-year grouping also masks the fact that the jump in activity took place in the Jindabyne area in 1999, with nearly as much activity in that year as in the previous four.

As the data supplied did not provided the number of parcels created for all subdivisions, it is not possible to do a complete analysis of parcels created by size and location. However, it is known that most of the subdivisions creating relatively large numbers of parcels were in: • East Jindabyne and Tyrolean in the late 1990s and early 2000s, • At Highview in Jindabyne in 2004 • And in rural residential areas to the south of Jindabyne over the ten year period

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5.1.1 Rural Residential Supply

Some indication of the growth of rural residential holdings can be gained from a comparison of parcels by size in rural areas (Table 19). Taken over the period, there was an average of 22 parcels per year created in this range of parcel sizes. The majority of these were in the Jindabyne area.

Table 19. Holdings by size, smaller parcels, all rural areas

Size 1978 2001 Change

1-2 ha 19 63 44 (+230%) 2-4 ha 30 290 260 (+860%) 4-10 ha 26 177 151 (+580%) All 75 530 378 (+600%)

Source: Snowy River Shire Council

Many people moving to the region are seeking parcels larger than 10 ha. and parcels in the larger size range have also been created. The profile of parcel sizes for all parcels rated as rural residential properties is shown in Table 20. This shows that nearly half are less than 3 hectares. Above 3 hectares, there are roughly similar numbers of properties held for each doubling of size up to 200 ha after which there is a sharp drop off.

This pattern is consistent with real estate agent’s comments about the pattern of demand for rural residential land. They indicate that the strongest demand is for smaller properties within a short distance of town, or even at the town edge, but that there is a range of buyers for larger properties of increasing sizes up to relatively large bush bloc ‘retreats’ up to 200 hectares further from the towns.

Table 20. Rural residential rated properties by size, 1998, Snowy River Shire

Size (ha) Count %

<2 208 23% 2-3 205 23%

3-5 90 10% 5-10 80 9% 10-20 66 7% 20-50 80 9% 50-100 51 6% 100-200 85 10%

200-400 16 2% 400-800 9 1% >800 1 0%

Total 891 100%

Source: Snowy River Shire Council

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The relative concentration of rural residential parcels in the Jindabyne area is shown from a table presented in Appendix 12 from the Snowy River Shire Residential Development Discussion Paper, summarised below as Table 21.

Table 21. Rural Residential Developments Near Jindabyne

Area 1985 – 1997 1998 - 2001 Other/not stated Total

South of Jindabyne 226 74 10 310 North of Jindabyne 39 6 45 Alpine Way 56 56

Total 265 74 72 411

Source: Snowy River Shire Residential Development Discussion Paper , Appendix 12, data compiled by Kosciuszko First National

This table lists 411 rural residential lots in over 30 subdivisions within about 30 kms of Jindabyne created and marketed, mostly between 1985 and 2001. While reasonably comprehensive, it is unlikely to include all parcels created in this period. Of these, 265 were specified as created between 1985 and 1998 and so appear in the total in Table 20. Thus at least 30% of all rural residential parcels in the Shire were created in this area over that 12 year time period. The table lists another 74 parcels created from 1998 to 2001. Assuming most of the parcels for which the period was not stated also occur in the 16 year period, these average out to nearly 25 parcels per year in the Jindabyne area alone for this period, compared to 22 parcels per year for the whole shire calculated above (but for only for parcel sizes ranging from 1-10 ha, which account for two thirds of all rural residential parcels).

At the present time there are still significant numbers of parcels on the market, both in the townships and rural residential parcels. This does not necessarily suggest that parcels have been produced in excess of demand. When new estates are released, properties with good views and setting often sell quickly, leaving less attractive parcels from earlier releases still unsold after many years. For example, data on lots available from the Snowy River Shire Residential Development Discussion Paper, Appendix 12 2, showed that while more than 50% of rural residential parcels released since 1999 had sold, over 10% of parcels from releases from 1985 to 1998 remained unsold. The parcels with views in the recently released Highview Estate south of Gippsland Street sold quickly, while only a few of the remaining parcels (south facing without lake or mountain views) have to date sold.

The degree of concentration of rural residential development near Jindabyne has been driven by: • The strength of demand for property in this area with attractive lake or mountain views and to the mountains for skiing • Proximity to the services of Jindabyne • But most importantly, availability of land zoned rural residential

2 Based on data provided by Kosciuszko First National

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It has been argued by some residents of other towns in the Shire that greater development of rural residential land would occur in their areas if the zoning permitted it. Certainly real estate agents consistently report unmet demand for this form of development. Until attractive land is made available for this form of development in other areas, the degree of demand will not have been properly tested. What also remains unknown is the extent to which such rural residential land would be used for seasonal homes versus permanent dwellings.

The primary requirement for development of rural residential land is to identify suitable land that will not have significant adverse environmental effects. The release of land needs to provide some diversity in sizes, features and location to meet different needs. However, the visual attractiveness of the region is a key appeal – protecting this should remain a high priority.

For land that is served by reticulated water and sewerage, it is important to identify the sequence of development to ensure economical development of infrastructure.

The Shire needs to have good information systems in place to ensure that there has been reasonable uptake (at least 60% around Jindabyne, less in other areas) of land that has been subdivided before advancing to the next area.

5.1.2 Tracking Land Supply

Past analysis has depended on real estate agents to supply inventories of lots created, numbers sold and numbers of parcels still vacant or for sale. While reasonably thorough, they can easily overlook properties where they are not sold at arms length or via agents. In principle information on new parcel creation and whether a parcel is vacant should be derivable from Council records. However, the current systems have not been able to extract this information in a cost and time effective manner, making it difficult to update the past analysis.

It is strongly recommended that the Council update its GIS systems to enable quick enumeration of properties by: • Zoning • Date of creation • Date of last sale (change of ownership for rating purposes) • Developed status (vacant, dwelling, other structure) • If developed, date of development • Area • Services available

Annual reports should be designed to track changes in land availability. This data set can also be interrogated for the status at any time of total supply and availability of parcels of different character in any location, enabling the need for additional supply to be assessed.

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5.2 Summary of Land Supply

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6 Economic Base

6.1 Employment by Industry

The 2001 census shows a very high labour force participation rate and a low unemployment rate for usual residents by national standards at the time of the census (Table 22). In particular there is a high labour force participation for people of over age 65, 41% for males and 19% for females. Excluding unemployment in persons aged 19 years and less – which accounted for 21% of those unemployed – the unemployment rate was 3.5%, which would be regarded as full employment.

Table 22. Labour market as of Census 2001

Males Females Persons

Employed persons 2100 1589 3689 Labour force participation rate 82.6% 73.6% 78.5% Unemployment rate 5.3% 2.6% 4.2%

These conditions are likely to reflect seasonal peak conditions rather than the norm over the year. As such, they produce an unrealistically optimistic view of economic conditions in the Shire.

Figure 13 shows the distribution of employment by industry sector as reported from journey to work information which is tabulated by the location of employment from the 2001 Census. The journey to work data records 4322 persons working in the shire compared to 3689 shire residents reporting being employed. This suggests that the Shire hosts 633 or 17% more jobs than employed residents.

Relative to the NSW average employment profile, The Snowy River Shire has more people employed in accommodation, cafes and restaurants, agriculture, electricity gas and water supply, and cultural and recreational services and personal and other services. It has far fewer employed in finance and insurance, communications, wholesale trade, health, education, government and property and business services.

Assessment of employment is complicated by the strong seasonality. The census is taken in the winter ski season. Respondents are asked to fill in their employment for the week prior to the census. A far higher proportion of residents will be working in the tourism industry at the time of the census than on average over the year. Correspondingly, fewer will report working in other sectors than may be the case for much of the year.

Rural production accounts for about 6% of reported employment. This may be an underestimate of employment and relative activity in this sector: • Many people receive part of their income from rural production but only one industry is reported for each person on the census summaries

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• Many primary production workers would report their employment in the tourist industry as this is the work they are doing at the time of the census, even though, over the year they are engaged more in primary production.

Tourism is clearly a large part of the local economy as shown by the high level of employment in the accommodation, cafes and restaurants category, which accounts for nearly 50% of those shown. However tourism is not an industry sector classified by ABS under a single ANSIC classification, but part of many sectors including not only accommodation, restaurants and hospitality, but also transport, retail and various services. Various estimates have been made of the total employment generated by tourism in the Shire.

Figure 13. Employment of usual residents by industry, 2001

60%

50%

40% SRS NSW/ACT

30%

20%

10%

0% Mining Forestry Education Retail Trade Retail Construction Wholesale Trade Wholesale Manufacturing -Food Manufacturing Manufacturing -other Manufacturing Transport and Storage and Transport Finance and Insurance and Finance Communication Services Communication Manufacturing -Forestry Manufacturing Agriculture &aquaculture Agriculture Personal and Other Services Other and Personal Health and Community Services Community and Health Property and Business Services Business and Property Electricity, Gas and Water Supply Water and Gas Electricity, Cultural and Recreational Services Recreational and Cultural Government Administration and Defence and Administration Government Accommodation, Cafes and Restaurants and Cafes Accommodation,

Source: ABS 2001 Census, Journey to Work

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A tourism impact model developed by the Department of Industry, Tourism and Resources uses total estimated spending and a regionally adjusted multiplier to estimate direct and indirect employment generated. Based on that model’s estimates of 574 000 visitors, 1 794 000 visitor nights and tourism spending of $289.8 million, the model estimates 1 739 direct tourism jobs and from 2 600 to 2 900 jobs after the multiplier effects on other sectors are included.

According to Estimates of Tourism Employment in All Statistical Local Areas and Statistical Subdivisions in Australia, 2003, Tourism and Transport Forum Australia , 2 400 people were employed in tourism in the Snowy Mountains Region. Of these 2 030 were in the Snowy River Shire representing 20.6% of the Shire’s population (but 55% of the workforce).

Estimates of tourism employment based on total spending average the employment over the year and express it as full time equivalent positions. In the ski season people may work very long hours for a few weeks or months, followed by a slow summer season in which some tourist operations close entirely. Further, a significant portion of those employed will be seasonal residents, not full time residents. Thus the year round contribution to employment for year round residents of the Shire is likely to be less than implied by these estimates.

Many of the same qualifications apply to employment in other sectors. Available statistical sources do not permit a definite assessment of the year round employment pattern of different sectors. However, a broad perspective can be obtained by considering four large groupings: • Primary production is likely to be underestimated for reasons stated with the real share possibly closer to 15% of employment over the full year. This higher estimate is based on 10.5% of residents reporting that their employment is in agriculture in the peak season, with an allowance for some of these to be working seasonally in the tourism industry. • Tourism is likely to be less than indicated when taken as employment by full time local residents, perhaps 30%. • Population services generate employment to support the local population’s day to day needs, including a mix of construction, retail, personal services, education, healthcare and government, which normally employ about 30% of the population and about 60% of the workforce. In the case of Snowy Shire, some of these services are provided outside the Shire giving a lower than usual proportion of employment in this area. However, employment in these sectors grows in the winter peak to support the additional seasonal population. • Other employment is provided by the remaining sectors including much of the mining, manufacturing and business services sectors and some government roles (defence). Much of their output may be exported from the Shire rather than used locally. These are quite small within the Shire compared to larger metropolitan centres.

These relative shares are shown in Figure 14. The estimated share of year round employment by these four groups is approximate only. However, it provides some basis to consider growth prospects over the next few years.

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Figure 14. Approximate share of employment by four major categories

Other Primary employment production 15% 15%

Tourism 30% Population Services 40%

Source: estimated by SGS Economics & Planning

The economic base of the Shire is relatively narrow with a much stronger dependence on tourism in all but a very few local government areas in Australia. Correspondingly, the contribution from diverse other economic sectors is relatively small.

Primary production is unlikely to generate any sustained increases in employment in the future. The long-term historical trend is for gradually declining employment in the sector.

The prospects for growth in tourism in the winter season are relatively limited. Visitor numbers are largely driven by the quality of the skiing season and while showing a modest upward trend in recent years, the general assessment of the industry is that it is mature. However there is considerable potential for growth in the summer. This will not affect peak employment in the industry, but will have the effect of raising the year round contribution to employment above current levels.

Population services can be expected to grow slightly faster than population as the increasing population will be able to support more locally based services as the community grows.

Growth in other employment will depend on developing capacities within the Shire for export oriented industries. Given the location and relatively high transport costs it is more likely that service oriented industries will succeed and manufacturing industries are less likely. Any

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manufacturing industry that did establish would require a high-value product where freight costs for materials inward and finished product outward are not excessive.

6.2 Incomes

Residents of the Shire reported individual incomes averaging $656 for males and $508 for females at the 2001 Census. This compares to the Australian averages of $592 for males and $379 for females. The income distributions are shown in Figure 15. The Shire’s residents have roughly 20% less share in incomes categories under $300 per week. Shire residents have higher proportions in income groups from $330 to $1000, but have smaller proportions in the two highest income groups.

Figure 15. Income distribution by sex, Snowy River Shire and Australia, 2001 Census

18.0%

16.0% Males, SRS 14.0% Females, SRS 12.0% Males, Aus Females, Aus 10.0%

8.0% 6.0%

4.0% 2.0%

0.0% $1-$39 $40-$79 $80-$119 $120-$159 $160-$199 $200-$299 $300-$399 $400-$499 $500-$599 $600-$699 $700-$799 $800-$999 $1,000-$1,499 $1,500 or more or $1,500 Negative/Nil income

Source: ABS 2001 Census, Usual Residents Table U28 and Basic Community Profile, Australia, B13

6.3 Summary of Economic Base

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7 Employment lands

Much of the above discussion relates to permanent residents in the community. The project also includes consideration of tourism, commercial and industrial land requirements. Holiday accommodation may well be regarded as part of the tourism demand for land, although many of the resulting dwellings may not be particularly distinguished from other residential development. They will be limited to zones which permit this form of visitor oriented ‘residential’ development.

Land for commercial and industrial use can be reasonably estimated based on the population and employment profiles, based on ratios of land use per employee by sector.

7.1 Retail and associated business activity centres

7.1.1 Jindabyne retail catchment

The Jindabyne principal retail catchment is taken to include Jindabyne, Tyrolean and East Jindabyne, and all rural areas to the south and west outside of KNP, and for about 10 km to the east. This contains a population of about 4 000 permanent residents. A secondary catchment would include KNP, Berridale and Dalgety and the rural areas surrounding them. The principal competing centres are Cooma and Canberra.

Retail areas in the Jindabyne catchment are concentrated on the strip of commercial development facing the main road either side of the visitor centre. There are few shops outside of this area except those on the highway near East Jindabyne.

The total retail area is estimated to be over 20 000 m 2. There is a modest area (about 5%) of vacancy, much of which is in the new development south of Nugget’s Crossing. About 10% of the potential retail area is used for offices and medical services, with some additional upper storey areas with no realistic retail potential providing office space.

The total area includes about 1 800 m 2 of supermarket space (excluding the area devoted to alcohol sales). Given an allowance of some leakage to Cooma and Canberra, the supermarket floor area would normally be associated with a population of about 9 000-10 000 people and the general retail a population of about 10 000 people. This is far greater than the permanent population in the Jindabyne principal retail catchment of about 4 000 people.

The very much larger retail area is clearly sustained by visitor and seasonal resident spending. An indication of this is the very high proportion of retail area devoted to ski shops: of about 100 shops counted (including vacant shops, offices and medical uses), there were 16 ski shops. However, they were among the largest shops and accounted for about 25% of the total floor area. Also over- represented are restaurants, cafes and takeaway food establishments with 23 counted. The profile

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of the remaining shops accounting for under half of the total area is rather closer to that expected of a small community and more in keeping with the scale of the population.

National retail trends have shown a long term, slowly rising expenditure per capita but a declining expenditure per household as average household sizes decline. With the continued growth in the local population, growth in local retail demand is expected. However, the need for growth would be from the smaller portion of retail area catering for local demand (about 35%-40% of the total) rather than in the tourist oriented portion of the existing retail base. Further, it may be anticipated that some additional space may be made available to local residents if retail space converts from serving a seasonal peak tourist market to a growing permanent one.

Growth for tourism demand is likely to be limited. The current area is sized to meet peak winer demand and the winter season is generally regarded as mature. Summer growth will not require additional retail area. There may be a need for some space for summer activities such as water and outdoor summer sports, but these may be catered for outside of the retail area on waterfront or other appropriate sites.

Overall the need for growth in retail floor space is likely to be at a rate of less than half that of the population for the foreseeable future. If the Jindabyne catchment population grows at 4%, retail growth would need to be about 2% or 400 m 2 per year or 4,000 m 2 over ten years.

In addition to retail growth, growth can be expected in offices and other business centre activities. This can be accommodated within the areas currently zoned 3a Business for the immediate future but would require redevelopment of some of the less intensively used land behind the existing main developments. This location is less of a prime, high visibility area and would be attractive mostly to some of the office, medical and personal service uses currently in more visible locations and some activities that may favour locations close to the hardware store or these offices.

A key opportunity for upgraded, high visibility retail redevelopment of the Snowy Mountains Plaza has been made very difficult due to the fragmented additions to the existing buildings and the split ownership of the development. However, in the longer term this will require some form of coordinated redevelopment due to its age and increasingly tired appearance.

Ideally the business and retail core of Jindabyne should be kept in the existing area as long as it can be accommodated there. Subject to the success of redevelopment within the existing area, this may require extensions to the zoned area in 10 – 15 years.

In the very long term, if population continues to grow and residential areas extend to the south of Jindabyne, consideration should be given to the location of a second shopping centre. It would be appropriate to designate a location for this once the pattern or residential extension has been decided. However, development should be deferred until required, and the scope of development limited to local population needs rather than visitor oriented retail or services.

Tyrolean and East Jindabyne

The satellite villages of Tyrolean and East Jindabyne are currently too small to support their own retail centres. Their current combined permanent population is only sufficient to support about 200

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m2 of convenience retailing, although seasonal population could supplement this further, to a maximum of say, 400 m 2. There is already some retail near East Jindabyne on the highway.

The recent development of new land in East Jindabyne will bring it to the level where it could support a convenience shop on its own when fully occupied. Community consultation has revealed interest in the establishment of local convenience stores for both East Jindabyne and Tyrolean. The preferred location from the point of view of ready access and commercial viability would be at the junction of Jerrara Drive and Kunama Drive, subject to site conditions being suitable.

7.1.2 Berridale

Berridale is the second largest service centre and retail catchment (in terms of population) in the Shire. However, it is quite small with about 1200 residents in the catchment. Like Jindabyne, it includes ski shops (2), restaurants/take-aways (6) a winery and a gallery, more directed to the passing tourist trade than locals. Offerings for locals are relatively limited, being only a convenience centre, with petrol, a general store, newsagent, hair salons and bars/bottleshops in the central retail cluster.

The existing retail is separated from much of the established town by the highway, which reduces the amenity of the shopping area. Berridale has undergone a recent growth spurt with significant new developments north of the highway. This may support a small amount of additional retail aimed at the local market. However most residents will remain dependent on Cooma as the principal centre for shopping and services.

The village zoning provides some flexibility for additional retail. While it should remain near the existing cluster, there is an opportunity to establish locally oriented retail along Myack Street near the highway.

7.1.3 Adaminaby

Adaminaby has a long established village square developed during the 1950s, which it has not yet outgrown. This is a reflection of the long term limited growth of the community and surrounding areas. Although the village square has few vacancies, there is some underused retail space.

The village zoning provides flexibility to accommodate future needs, with the potential to extend from the square if warranted. However, given the strong association with Cooma and the number of services obtained there, there is unlikely to be demand for growth in the foreseeable future.

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7.2 Construction, transport, manufacturing, repairs, utilities and wholesale trade

The main demand for land for these sectors will be to serve local population needs 3. Some activities such as construction will be variable, increasing during major projects such as the dam wall construction or activities in the resorts, or during peaks in the housing cycle, but then contracting in between. Most activities will tend to grow broadly according to population.

Land areas typically associated with employment in different activities are shown in Table 23.

Table 23. Land area for industrial employment

Industry Sector Gross land area Shire Implied land (m2) per employee employment* needed (m2)

Manufacturing 200 88 76 600 Construction 300 158 47 400 Transport and Storage 800 90 72 000 Wholesale trade 800 65 52 000 Utilities, communications 350 57 19 950

Total 458 208 950

*Employment based on journey to work data from the 2001 census.

The roughly 21 ha area listed in the table is the gross land area, with allowance for typical building plot coverage, roads and circulation and typical land vacancy rates of about 30%. By way of comparison, the developed part of the Leesville industrial is about 18 hectares, counting internal roads but not the buffer area between the estate and the highway. There is another 20 hectares zoned industrial at Leesville but it is unclear that all of this can be developed. The industrial area in Berridale is also about 18 hectares. In addition there are isolated industrial sites in a number of locations including the northern side of Adaminaby, near the highway in Berridale, and sites in Jindabyne for transport and a temporary site for construction associated with the dam.

The total area calculated in the table is much less than the area currently provided, of the order of 40-50 ha, discounting the Leesville extension. However, actual land use varies over a wide range within each industry sector according to specific sub-sectors – the numbers shown are only indicative averages. These areas have been based on benchmarks established in larger urban areas where land costs are high. Areas are likely to be larger in lower land cost areas.

Some real estate agents have commented that there is a need for further industrial land and that some of the existing land is being held by speculators. The Snowy River Shire has provided land at relatively low cost on the Leesville estate that has been purchased but not developed.

3 There may be some growth in manufacturing should a footloose manufacturer with a high value low transport cost product choose to locate in the region, but this is not a predictable event.

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To avoid speculation, future sales should include a condition requiring development within a specified period, say, 12 months, or the land should be handed back with a bond amount forfeited. The level of demand for land offered by the Shire would then more accurately reflect the need for land for industrial development.

At this early stage of development there is an opportunity to establish and maintain buffers between incompatible uses. This is important even for light industry due to noise of long hours of operation, and between commercial accommodation and permanent residents. This is currently achieved by the relative isolation of the existing industrial estates from neighbours. These buffers should be entrenched for the longer term via green belts, perimeter roads or other means.

7.3 Other Sectors

Employment in other sectors (excluding agriculture and related) is summarised in Table 24. It is difficult to specify land area associated with these sectors as the format for employment is varied: • School and health care planning use relatively specialised facilities. Areas depend on the form of services provided locally versus those provided in Cooma or delivered by other means (itinerant services). • Most of the finance, insurance and business services were accommodated in the retail/ commercial areas described above. The need for some additional office space was noted in that discussion. • Many of the cultural and recreational services are delivered within KNP or the Parks and Wildlife offices.

Table 24. Employment in other sectors

Sector Employment

Finance and Insurance 20 Property and Business Services 227 Government Administration and Defence 87 Education 119 Health and Community Services 113 Cultural and Recreational Services 127 Personal and Other Services 92 Non-classifiable economic units 15 Not stated 26 All other sectors 826

The broad growth in different sectors will depend on the growth scenario that applies. These are discussed in the three scenarios described in the last chapter.

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7.4 Summary of Employment Lands

Employment lands are even more concentrated in Jindabyne than population. Growth in land area for tourism is expected to be limited as most growth is likely to be in summer where there is substantial surplus capacity. Land area for activities that serve the growing permanent population will grow at rates reflecting that population growth, but can be supported within currently provided areas for the foreseeable future. In the medium term, parts of the Jindabyne centre will be to be redeveloped and eventually extended. In the long term, a second centre should be established to serve the local population.

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8 The Snowy River Shire Communities

Different areas of the Shire have a different mix of: • Permanent residents • Short term visitors in commercial accommodation and short term rented accommodation • Seasonal residents with a predominance in the ski season • Seasonal residents with a predominance in the summer season • Seasonal workers

They also have different economic foundations and potential. Based on the data available, the different areas of the shire are characterised as to the mix of resident types, prospects for future development and pattern of land development.

8.1 Jindabyne township and immediate surrounds

Appeal of the Area

Jindabyne and satellite areas provide the opportunity to own property close to the major ski fields of Kosciusko National Park. The setting on Lake Jindabyne and the rivers and surrounding bush setting provides both summer and winter activities. The town has become the main service centre within the Shire, with the largest scope for employment and services for residents. There are a variety of settings ranging from the busy town centre to rural retreats and lakeside enclaves within a 10 km radius of the town centre.

Population

Jindabyne and the surrounding area accounts for over half of the Shire population outside of KNP. The population of Jindabyne and surrounding areas has grown over many years, with continuing increase since 2001. The strongest growth has been to the southwest of Jindabyne township and to the south beyond Lakewood Estate.

Visitors and Seasonal Residents

The area receives heavy winter visitation, with several visitors for each resident present during the winter peak. However, visitation is uneven with much higher levels of visitors in the water facing town centre areas and the town’s commercial accommodation to the west, and in specific locations such as the Station Resort. However, parts of the town south of the sportsfield and away from the waterfront do not have the same intensity of visitors, and are the home of a high proportion of the year round residents of the town. Rural residential areas to the south and the satellite villages also attract far fewer winter visitors in comparison.

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Figure 16. Population Density, Jindabyne

PopulationPopulation Density Density by Usual Residents per sq kms 98 Usual0 Residents to 0.5 (8) / sq km 0.5 to 5 (2)

5 to 50 Growth (2) Rate per year (%) 50 to 1,560 (16) 2001-2004 0 to -0.71 0.5to 0 (13) 0 to 0.25 (4) 0.25 to 0.5 (3) 0.5 to 1 (4) 0.5 to 1 5to 2.7 (4) 5 to 50 50 to 1,560

d d d JINDABYNE d d d aaa aaa

ooo ooo

RRR RRR 150 Lake Jindabyne

114114 114114 o o kkk 371 zzz 371 sss uu iii ccc sss oo KK 436 398 132 476 926 aayy 150150 W ee iinn llpp All 358

154 156

289

0 2 4 kilometres

Over 50% of dwellings are owned by seasonal residents for much of Jindabyne Village, Tyrolean and Kalkite, East Jindabyne has a lower proportion with about 40% of properties owned by persons with a residential address outside the Shire. About 24% of dwellings were vacant on census night (a weekday). A higher proportion would be occupied on weekends with strong winter seasonal visits.

Economic Base and Potential

Jindabyne grew from its role in the 1950s as a service base for the Snowy Hydro scheme to become the winter tourism centre outside of Kosciusko National Park. It has continued in that role and become an administrative centre for the park as well. Increasingly the focus is on attracting summer visitors.

There are many tourist based businesses in the town including accommodation providers, ski oriented retailers, restaurants, and activities, as well as businesses that serve the needs of the local population, both permanent and seasonal.

To date the growth of non-tourist oriented businesses with markets outside the region has been limited, although there are notable exceptions.

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Figure 17. Visitors and Seasonal Residents, Jindabyne

RatioRatio of Visitors/Seasonal of Visitors/Seasonal Residents Residents to Usual Residents on Census Day 98 to Usual2.8 to 11.8 Residents (5) on Census Day 1.4 to 2.8 (6) 0.7 to 1.4 (4) 0.35 to 0.7 (7)2.8 to 11.8 0 to 0.35 (6) 1.4 to 2.8 0.7 to 1.4 0.35 to 0.7 0 to 0.35

d d d JINDABYNE d d d aaa aaa

ooo ooo

RRR RRR

150 Lake Jindabyne

o o o kkk 371 zzz 371 sss uuu iii ccc sss ooo KK 436 398 132 476 926 aayy W ee iiinn lllpp Alll 358

154 156

289

0 2 4 kilometres

Employment Land

Employment lands in the Jindabyne area are provided in four zonings: 2(v) Village 3(a) Business 3(b) Urban tourist accommodation 4 Industrial The Business zone hosts most of the retail, office and consumer service businesses in central Jindabyne. It is flanked by the urban tourist accommodation zones along Kosciusko Road. Industrial land is provided at the Leesville estate south along the Barry Way. Village zoning permits businesses on a discretionary basis.

In addition to these formal zonings for employment land, bed and breakfast accommodation, holiday accommodation and rural tourist accommodation are permitted in some other zones, providing additional employment opportunities.

The need for employment land will grow with population, albeit growth in summer tourism activity should not require growth in accommodation, restaurants or tourist retail for the foreseeable future.

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Figure 18. Population Growth, 2001-2004, Jindabyne

Growth Rate per year Growth2001-2004 Rate per year (%) -0.71 to 02001-2004 (13) -0.346-0.346 0 to 0.25 (4) 0.25 to 0.5 (3) 0.5 to 1 (4) 1 to 2.7-0.71 (4) to 0 0 to 0.25 0.25 to 0.5 0.5 to 1 1 to 2.7

d d d JINDABYNE d d d aaa aaa

ooo ooo

RRR RRR -0.605-0.605 Lake Jindabyne 0.166 o o o kkk zzz sss uuu iii ccc sss ooo KK

0.727 yy aayy W ee iiinn lllpp A 1.234

0.00

-0.322-0.322

2.339

0 2 4 kilometres

Residential Land

The Jindabyne area has been the focus of over 70% of the subdivision activity in the Shire over the last decade, with activity strengthening in the past three years. In the town areas, there have been a number of recent land releases in Jindabyne, East Jindabyne and surrounding areas in response to strong demand from the recent housing boom, in some cases with land subdivided in the late 1990s.

Rural Residential land ( 1c ) has been permitted in the areas around Jindabyne with relatively strong uptake over the past decade. Land located within 15 km of Jindabyne has been favoured by many permanent residents. Nearly half of rural residential parcels are under 3 ha, with parcels ranging from 3 to 200 hectares accounting for most of the rest.

Whether in the town or in rural areas, sites offering good lake and mountain views often sell quickly, but sites without views may remain unsold for years.

Real estate agents report demand for land in the area for properties from active retirees with 2 - 4 ha parcels particularly popular. Demand for investment – units and houses on acreage – has dropped recently after a period of growth.

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East Jindabyne

The rural residential area of East Jindabyne is one of the more settled areas of the lakeside towns with a below average level of seasonal residents (as measured by ratepayers with out of Shire addresses) and quite modest levels of visitors. It is currently expanding to the south in a recently developed village zoning.

Figure 19. LEP Zones, Jindabyne wider area

LEP Legend LEP Legend Rural Tourist1(a) Accommodation General LEPRural 1(d) Commercial Water Storage LEP 3(c) General1(c) Rural LEPRural 1(a) Residential Environmental Protection LEP 7 National1(d) Parks Rural& Nature Reserve Tourist LEP 8 Accommodation Rural Residential2(a) General LEP 1(c) Residential Village LEP 2(v) Mixed Residential2(b) Mixed LEP 2(b) Residential Industrial LEP 4 General2(v) Residential Village LEP 2(a) Urban Tourist Accommodation LEP 3(b) Business3(a) LEP 3(a)Business Open Space LEP 6 d d d JINDABYNEJINDABYNE d d d aaa 3(b) Urban Tourist Accommodation aaa

ooo ooo

RRR 3(c) Commercial Water Storage RRR 4 Industrial Lake Jindabyne

6 Open Space o o o kkk zzz 7 Environmental Protection sss uuu iii ccc 8 National Parks & Nature Reserve sss ooo KK

yy aayy W ee iiinn lllp Alll

0 2 4 kilometres

Tyrolean Village

This satellite settlement is midway in character between the very high visitation of Jindabyne and the more settled East Jindabyne, probably because it has a higher proportion of medium density property on smaller parcels. It has a proportion of seasonal residents (as measured by ratepayers with out of Shire addresses) comparable to the town but lacks the intensity of commercial accommodation and other opportunities for seasonal residents.

Kalkite

This small enclave is just on the northern edge of the 10 km radius of the study. It has quite a high seasonal resident population but hosts only a small number or winter visitors. While having very

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much a seasonal population, this is a more lake-oriented community than Jindabyne with activity distributed more over the year rather than just in the winter peak.

Figure 20. LEP Zones, Jindabyne Town Area

LEPLEP Legend Legend Rural 1(a)Tourist AccommodationGeneral RuralLEP 1(d) Commercial Water Storage LEP 3(c) General1(c) Rural Rural LEP 1(a) Residential Environmental Protection LEP 7 National1(d) Parks Rural & Nature ReserveTourist LEP Accommodation8 Rural Residential LEP 1(c) Village2(a) LEP 2(v) General Residential Mixed Residential LEP 2(b) Industrial2(b) LEP Mixed4 Residential General Residential LEP 2(a) Urban2(v) Tourist VillageAccommodation LEP 3(b) Business LEP 3(a) 3(a) Business d d d Open Space LEP 6 aaa 3(b) Urban Tourist Accommodation Lake JindabyneJindabyne ooo RR

3(c) Commercial Water Storage

4 Industrial ooo 6 Open Space kkk zzz sss 7 Environmental Protection uuu iii 8 National Parks & Nature Reserve ccc sss ooo KK

aayy WW

ee iiinee lllpiii AAlll

Rural Residential immediately south of Jindabyne

This area encompassing Station Resort, High Country estate and the Lakewood, Cobbin Creek development has a split character. The Resort and nearby Winter Sports Academy and other accommodation host both visitors and seasonal workers in large numbers. The rural residential estates in comparison have quite modest numbers of winter visitors and slightly below average seasonal residents.

Rural residential further south of Jindabyne

These areas along the Alpine Way and Barry Way including Moonbah, Mowambah and Abington Parishes host relatively low numbers of visitors and have quite low levels of seasonal residents. Many of these areas have settled, long term rural residents pleased to be some distance away from the busy centre of Jindabyne. Most of this area falls outside of the 10 km radius of the current study.

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8.2 Dalgety

Appeal of the area

Dalgety appeals to visitors and potential residents because of its setting on the iconic Snowy River and the history of the town. The historic character has been documented and partly interpreted through signs and a trail with commentary but some of the sites are not well presented or maintained. Development within the historic part of the township could undermine the potential for improved presentation, as would extensive development that reduced accessibility or visibility to the river.

Figure 21. Population Density, Dalgety

PopulationPopulation Density Density by Usual Residents per sq kms Usual 0Residents to 0.5 (8) / sq km 0.5 to 5 (2) 5 to 50Growth (2) Rate per year (%) 50 to 1,560 (16)2001-2004 0 to -0.71 0.5to 0 (13) 0 to 0.25 (4) 0.25 to 0.5 (3) 0.5 to 1 (4) 476 0.5 to 1 5to 2.7 (4) 5 to 50 50 to 1,560 dd oaa DALGETYDALGETY Ro

ttty y ee lllgg aa DD

289

ka Ro Beellok add bbiin obbbb C 66

142

0 1 2 kilometres

Population

The long-term trend has been a falling population. The population has been essentially static in the past five years, in spite of strong growth in other parts of the Shire.

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Visitors and Seasonal Residents

The area receives relatively little winter visitation (almost 0) compared to the rest of the Shire, by far the lowest of the four town centres.

Dalgety is somewhat unusual in having a large proportion of dwellings owned by seasonal residents, with 78% of properties in the area owned by persons with a residential address outside the Shire and 44% of dwellings vacant on census night.

This suggests a large proportion of those buying property in Dalgety may have been taking advantage of the relatively low cost to buy a second home. There are more summer seasonal residents than winter.

Figure 22. Visitors and Seasonal Residents, Dalgety

Ratio of Visitors/Seasonal Residents toRatio Usual Residents of Visitors/Seasonal on Census Day Residents to Usual2.8 to Residents 11.8 (5) on Census Day 1.4 to 2.8 (6) 0.7 to 1.4 (4) 0.35 to 0.72.8 (7) to 11.8 0 to 0.351.4 (6) to 2.8 476 0.7 to 1.4 0.35 to 0.7 0 to 0.35 dd oaa DALGETYDALGETY Ro

ttty y ee lllgg aa DD

289

ka Ro Beellok ad biinn obb C 66

142

0 1 2 kilometres

Economic base and potential

Dalgety has a minimal local service role with only one general store/cafe, a hotel, automotive services and a school. A few residents in the surrounding rural areas receive income from agriculture. There is a caravan park by the river and country accommodation in nearby areas,

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which receives peak visitation in the summer season. The area attracts visitors to the annual show and other events. Any future growth in population is likely to be based on tourism or attraction of retirees.

Figure 23. Population Growth, 2001-2004, Dalgety

GrowthGrowth Rate Rate per year per year (%) 2001-2004 2001-2004 -0.71 to 0 (13) 0 to 0.25 (4) 0.25 to 0.5 (3) 0.5 -0.71to 1 (4) to 0 1 to0 2.7 (4) to 0.25 0.727 0.25 to 0.5 0.5 to 1 dd 1 to 2.7 ooaa DALGETYDALGETY Roo

ttty y ee lllgg aa DD

2.339

ka Roaa Bellok aad biin obb C -0.38-0.38

-0.354-0.354

0 1 2 kilometres

Employment Lands

Land along the road from the bridge to the general store can be used for village service types of development. Industrial land is not warranted for this centre although village zoning may be used to permit service activities should a need arise.

Residential Land

Unoccupied land zoned 2V Village within the township is limited. Land around the township to the west is 7 Environment Protection along the Snowy River. Land to the north and east of the township is zoned 1a General Rural which has limited development of rural residential land. There have been two parcels of land known to be subject to subdivision applications within the 5 km

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radius from Dalgety in 10 years. One was to create 3 rural small holdings and the other, a subdivision of unspecified parcels.

Real estate agents report demand for land in the area for properties from active retirees and some families with older children. In the township, 1000 m 2 blocks are sought but not available. Outside the township, demand is for river frontage/views and rural properties with permission to build a dwelling. Demand is for properties of about 2 ha near town, larger properties (6 ha+) further out and bush blocks of 20 to 40 ha where they are not too far from roads and services. However, few blocks with these characteristics are available.

Figure 24. LEP Zones, Dalgety

dd ooadaaad DALGETYDALGETY Roo

y y ttty y ee llgg aa DD

kaa Roaa Beelllok aad n bbiiin Cob

LEP Legend 1(a) General Rural 1(c) Rural Residential 1(d) Rural Tourist Accommodation 2(a) General Residential LEP Legend 2(b) Mixed Residential Rural Tourist Accommodation LEP 1(d) Commercial2(v) Village Water Storage LEP 3(c) General Rural LEP 1(a) Environmental3(a) Business Protection LEP 7 National3(b) ParksUrban & Nature Tourist Reserve Accommodation LEP 8 Rural Residential LEP 1(c) Village3(c) LEP Commercial 2(v) Water Storage Mixed Residential LEP 2(b) Industrial4 Industrial LEP 4 General Residential LEP 2(a) 6 Open Space 0 1 2 Urban Tourist Accommodation LEP 3(b) Business7 Environmental LEP 3(a) Protection kilometres Open Space LEP 6 8 National Parks & Nature Reserve

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8.3 Berridale

Appeal of the area

Berridale is a long settled community with a village feel on level terrain. It provides lower cost housing and a less hectic town centre during the ski season than Jindabyne while still being within a reasonable commuting distance. Cooma can be reached in about twenty minutes for higher-level services.

Population

The population of Berridale and surrounding rural areas had been static for most of the 1990s but has grown in the past two years, slightly faster than the Shire as a whole. However, according to ABS estimates, numbers are small with only about 30 new residents, most since 2003.

Figure 25. Population Density, Berridale

Population Density by UsualPopulation Residents per Density sq kms Usual 0Residents to 0.5 (8) / sq km 0.5 to 5 (2)

5 to 50Growth (2) Rate per year (%) 50 to 1,560 (16)2001-2004 0 to -0.71 0.5to 0 (13) 0 to 0.25 (4) 0.25 to 0.5 (3) 0.5 to 1 (4) 0.5 to 1 5to 2.7 (4) 5 to 50 50 to 1,560

BERRIDALEBERRIDALE

476

d d aa 317 oo RR RR 213 K ee Koss nn cciiiuss yy sszzkoko bb R aa oadad dd nn iiinn 445 JJ

0 1 2 kilometres

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Visitors and Seasonal Residents

Berridale has relatively low levels of seasonal residents and much lower levels of winter visitors than Jindabyne but a similar number to Adaminaby. Here the visitor population is less than double that of the permanent population. Many of the seasonal residents are winter workers for the ski fields in accommodation much more affordable than Jindabyne.

The surrounding rural areas are largely unaffected by winter visitation but have a higher proportion of seasonal residents than the township.

A relatively small proportion of dwellings are owned by seasonal residents, with 27% of properties owned by persons with a residential address outside the Shire. 30% of dwellings were vacant on census night showing an emphasis on winter seasonal visits.

Figure 26. Visitors and Seasonal Residents, Berridale

Ratio of Visitors/Seasonal Residents Ratioto Usual Residents of Visitors/Seasonal on Census Day Residents 2.8 to 11.8 (5) to Usual1.4 to Residents 2.8 (6) on Census Day 0.7 to 1.4 (4) 0.35 to 0.7 (7) 0 to 0.35 2.8 (6) to 11.8 1.4 to 2.8 0.7 to 1.4 0.35 to 0.7 0 to 0.35

BERRIDALEBERRIDALE

476

d d aa 317 oo RR RR 213 K ee Koscsc nn iiiuss yy sszzkoko bb R aa oaa dd d nn iiinn 445 JJ

0 1 2 kilometres

Economic Base and Potential

Until recently Berridale was the administrative seat of the Shire and still retains the Council Chambers. Historically it has been a main service centre for the Shire’s rural community. Berridale has a local service role with a selection of stores, cafes, hotels, some other services and a school.

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It is the second largest service centre in the Shire and more centrally located for many residents than Jindabyne. Some residents work in Cooma and others in Jindabyne, about 20 minutes in either direction.

There are a number of accommodation providers that receive peak visitation in the winter season, primarily overflow accommodation from Jindabyne. It is on the main road to the ski fields and KNP and attracts some passing trade.

Figure 27. Population Growth, 2001-2004, Berridale

Growth Rate per year (%) Growth2001-2004 Rate per year (%) -0.712001-2004 to 0 (13) 0 to 0.25 (4) 0.25 to 0.5 (3) -0.710.5 to 1 to (4) 0 10 to 2.7 to (4) 0.25 0.25 to 0.5 0.5 to 1 1 to 2.7

BERRIDALEBERRIDALE

d d aa oo 0.933 RR RR -0.354-0.354 K ee osscc nn cciiiuss yy sszzkkoo bb o Ro aa oaad dd d nn iiinn 0.391 JJ 0.391

0.727

0 1 2 kilometres

Employment Land

Village zoning allows some discretion for employment activities. Most commercial activity is along the highway including some service industrial activity. There is also an area of about 17 ha zoned industrial area to the east of Berridale.

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Residential Land

Real estate agents report demand for land in the area for properties from active retirees and some families with older children.

There have been seven approved subdivisions within the township, with the majority of activity and lots generated in the last 2 years. There was a strong burst in demand in 2003-2004 after about a decade of low activity. About 15 blocks remain unsold. In the township, 1000 m 2 blocks are still sought but not available.

Land surrounding Berridale township is zoned 1a General Rural limiting development of rural residential land. There have been only two subdivisions outside of the township in the last ten years. Outside the township, demand is for rural properties with a building entitlement, about 2 ha near town, larger properties (6 ha+) further out and bush blocks of 20 to 40 ha where they are not too far from roads and services. They are generally not available.

Figure 28. LEP Zones, Berridale

BERRIDALEBERRIDALE

d d aa oo RR RR K ee osscc nn cciiiuss yy sszkko bb o Ro aa oaad dd d nn iiinn JJ LEP Legend 1(a) General Rural 1(c) Rural Residential 1(d) Rural Tourist Accommodation 2(a) General Residential 2(b) MixedLEP LegendResidential Rural Tourist Accommodation LEP 1(d) 2(v) Village Commercial Water Storage LEP 3(c) 3(a) BusinessGeneral Rule LEP 1(a) Environmental Protection LEP 7 3(b) Urban TouristNational AccommodationParks & Nature Reserve LEP 8 Rural Residential LEP 1(c) 3(c) CommercialVillage Water LEP 2(v) Storage 4 Industrial Mixed Residential LEP 2(b) Industrial LEP 4 0 1 2 6 Open SpaceGeneral Residential LEP 2(a) 7 EnvironmentalUrban Protection Tourist Accommodation LEP 3(b) kilometres Business LEP 3(a) 8 National ParksOpen &Space Nature LEP 6 Reserve

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8.4 Adaminaby and Surrounds

Appeal of the area

The area is relatively close to Canberra and offers lake recreation and access to Selwyn snowfields. It has enough population to create a sense of community and provide basic local services. Cooma can be reached in about half an hour for higher level services.

Population

The long term population trend has been stable, falling in the rural areas. In the past five years the population has been essentially static, in spite of strong growth in other parts of the Shire. A high proportion of the permanent population lives within the township.

Figure 29. Population Density, Adaminaby

Population Density by UsualPopulation Residents per sq kms Density 0 to 0.5 (8) Usual0.5 to Residents 5 (2) / sq km 5 to 50 (2) 50 to 1,560 (16) Growth Rate per year (%) 2001-2004 0 to -0.71 0.5to 0 (13) 0 to 0.25 (4) 0.25 to 0.5 (3) 0.5 to 1 (4) ADAMINABY 0.5 to 1 5to 2.7 (4) ADAMINABY 5 to 50 50 to 1,560 115

230 Sno H owyy iins iiiggh yy Mounttaiin hw M aayy

Lake Eucumbene

36 0 1 2 kilometres 123

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Visitors and Seasonal Residents

Adaminaby township shares the characteristic of Berridale of having a relatively low level seasonal residents and comparable levels of winter visitation. The town is a significant centre for servicing the northern part of the Shire including the Selwyn Ski Fields. While having a winter peak, the township also receives significant summer visitation associated with fishing, camping and touring. Within Adaminaby township the number of dwellings owned and occupied seasonally is low at 30%.

Figure 30. Visitors and Seasonal Residents, Adaminaby

Ratio of Visitors/Seasonal Residents toRatio Usual Residents of onVisitors/Seasonal Census Day Residents 2.8 to 11.8 (5) 1.4 to 2.8 (6) to Usual0.7 to 1.4 Residents(4) on Census Day 0.35 to 0.7 (7) 0 to 0.35 (6) 2.8 to 11.8 1.4 to 2.8 0.7 to 1.4 ADAMINABYADAMINABY 0.35 to 0.7 0 to 0.35 115

230 Sn H owyy iins iiig yy Mounttaiin hw M aayy

Lake Eucumbene

36 0 1 2 kilometres 123

Old Adaminaby and Anglers Reach

These two communities are strongly based on seasonal residents, with the second highest levels of seasonal residents after Dalgety. 67% of properties in these areas owned by persons with a residential address outside the Shire and the same proportion vacant on census night. This indicates greater summer seasonal visitors than winter.

However, unlike Dalgety the area also receives significant winter visitation, and proportionately much more than Kalkite, giving these communities two clear seasonal peaks.

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Figure 31. Population Growth, 2001-2004, Adaminaby

Growth Rate per year (%) Growth2001-2004 Rate per year (%) -0.71 to 02001-2004 (13) 0 to 0.25 (4) 0.25 to 0.5 (3) 0.5 to 1 (4) 1-0.71 to 2.7 (4) to 0 0 to 0.25 0.25 to 0.5 ADAMINABY 0.5 to 1 1 to 2.7 0.00

0.109 Sno H owyy iins iiigh yy Mounttaiin hw M aayy

0.428

Lake Eucumbene

0 1 2 -0.702-0.702 kilometres -0.409-0.409

Economic Base and Potential

Adaminaby has a small local service role with a selection of stores, cafes, hotels, some other services and a school. Some residents work for Snowy Hydro or Parks. Some residents commute to Cooma, a few to Canberra.

There are a number of accommodation providers in the three townships, which receives peak visitation in the summer season, with fishing being a major attraction. The area also attracts significant winter visitors.

Employment Land

Village zoning allows some discretion for employment activities. Most are centred on the village square or along the highway. Some service and maintenance activities are located on the north side of the town, which had been zoned industrial until 1998.

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Figure 32. LEP Zones, Adaminaby

LEPLEP Legend Legend Rural Tourist Accommodation LEP 1(d) Commercial1(a) WaterGeneral Storage RuralLEP 3(c) General1(c) Rural Rural LEP 1(a) Residential Environmental Protection LEP 7 National1(d) Parks Rural & Nature Tourist Reserve LEP Accommodation 8 Rural Residential LEP 1(c) Village2(a) LEP 2(v) General Residential Mixed Residential LEP 2(b) Industrial2(b) LEP Mixed 4 Residential ADAMINABY Mixed2(v) Residential Village LEP 2(a) Urban Tourist Accommodation LEP 3(b) Business3(a) LEP Business 3(a) Open Space LEP 6 3(b) Urban Tourist Accommodation 3(c) Commercial Water Storage 4 Industrial 6 Open Space 7 Environmental Protection 8 National Parks & Nature Reserve

Sno H owyy iins iiigh yy Mounttaiin hw M aayy

Lake Eucumbene

0 1 2 kilometres

Residential Land

Unoccupied land zoned 2V Village within the township is limited with few sites remaining along Scenic Drive. However a 2ha parcel on the eastern edge of the township was approved for subdivision early in 2005. Two additional large undeveloped parcels of approx 9ha owned by the State government are also within the village zone.

Land around the lakeside townships is 7 Environment Protection within sight of the lake. Land surrounding Adaminaby township is zoned 1a General Rural limiting development of rural residential land.

Real estate agents report demand for land in the area from persons seeking holiday homes, particularly skiers and fishers, but a shortage of properties listed. In particular there is a shortage of land on which to build, with only two blocks on offer. According to the real estate agent, if land is available it will sell. Only four subdivisions have been approved in rural areas near Adaminaby since 1994 (all but one since 1999), three within 5 km of the township and one closer to Anglers Reach.

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9 Future growth scenarios

Likely Population growth will moderate in the short term due to falling Sydney and steady Canberra housing prices. Continued growth is expected in the longer term at roughly historical rates driven by steady growth in summer tourism, lifestyle relocation and retirement.

The need for seasonal holiday homes would increase in large part based on relative affordability and the extent to which options to acquire attractive sites are available. There will continue to be a strong market for renting houses to visitors. Assuming this is permitted or even encouraged, the numbers of dwellings for seasonal homes and holiday rentals will probably remain close to the numbers built for permanent residents, about 50 per year. Seasonal workers accommodation is unlikely to grow significantly and could even decline slightly as more workers are employed year round.

Growth in Adaminaby will be of retirees with smaller growth in working age population to serve them as many services will be provided from Cooma.

Low In this scenario the failure of several winter seasons undercuts the viability and quality of tourism offerings. This reduces the capacity of operators to effectively develop the summer season so it does not grow significantly. Poor employment prospects lead to the loss of young families from the area, at least initially. However, falling property prices and high vacancies in seasonal properties bring them onto the year round rental market and many are offered for sale. Semi retirees and retirees are retained, and even more strongly attracted as falling property prices and the reduced winter peak make places like Jindabyne a more attractive location for older persons. This demand could then be sustained even if metropolitan housing prices are not so strong.

A potential super-low scenario could arise if government refuses to fund sufficient support for older residents in the Shire. This could reduce its attractiveness and lead to the potential for declining population. This is considered a low probability.

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Growth in the low scenario could be zero or even a drop in population in the short term. However, longer term the low growth scenario could see rates of about half of that of the likely scenario.

High Summer visitation shows strong growth until summer visitation is over half of winter levels. Strong year round employment sustains higher population growth as retail and services available all year round meet most local needs at lower prices than at present. A resurgent Sydney housing market and increasing numbers of baby boomers retiring creates demand for lifestyle residential locations, but restrictions on coastal properties and high prices there open up greater interest in inland locations. The presence of increasing numbers of people with talent, experience and connections provides a slowly diversifying economic base as specialist services are exported from the area.

Relatively modest growth in seasonally rented accommodation, as virtually all growth is in the summer when vacancies are high. However, there is continued strong growth in seasonal residences occupied by owner-occupiers as the area is seen as increasingly attractive.

Growth in this scenario is likely to be limited by the availability of land and building services.

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