The Large and Small Powers of Ten: Accelerating Towards Kurzweil’S Singularity
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The Large and Small Powers of Ten: Accelerating Towards Kurzweil’s Singularity but only after unintentionally eddying The Service Representative (whose in the warranty section of the human voice was not nearly so soothing, The Large and Small information system. but who was still very helpful) told me that I was the fifth scheduled visit for that On the day of my scheduled repair, I morning and that the technician, whose Powers of Ten: called again to confirm my appointment name was Joe, was already at the second and to get a rough estimate of the techni- house. Apparently Joe was being tracked cian's arrival time. This time, the by a GPS system that knew his exact loca- Accelerating Towards machine on the other end asked me an tion based on the programmed addresses open-ended question: “What can I help in relation to the progress of his vehicle. you with today?” I was momentarily Five minutes later, I got a call from Joe caught in an anxious silence. I knew that (calling from his truck) to let me know he Kurzweil's Singularity this machine possessed a limited vocabu- had received a message that I was ready lary, and I felt some pressure to find the and that he'd be by around 11:50. But the right answer. I tried to anticipate the lim- most amazing part about this story of ited catalog of possible responses, a sort intertwined artificial intelligence and cus- of small scale reverse engineering proj- tomer service is that when Joe discovered by Matt Jolly ect; after all, the root menu of these the problem (a defective relay) he imme- voice-recognition systems are usually the diately knew whether or not he had the University of Advancing Technology largest boxes (options) within which the part based on the electronic inventory more granular ends are contained—they system that his service vehicle maintained are equivalent to the roman numeral Even if Ray Kurzweil is only Book Review: headings of the outline, or the root fold- Ray Kurzweil, The Singularity Is Near: When er in the operating system. I couldn't help half right then this book is a Humans Transcend Biology, Viking Penguin, but imagine myself doomed to some 2005, ISBN 067003847, 652 pages, limbo of the automated operator uni- US$29.95 46 worthwhile read even if it only verse, trying to guess what command the 47 computer needed to hear. functions as a roadmap for My wife and I had moved into a new home at the same time that I was contemplating “Repair?” navigating the future world or the direction of this book review. One of “I'm sorry, I don't recognize that option. our initial needs was the purchase of a Please try again. What can I help you with worlds. new refrigerator, which we accomplished today?” at a Sears scratch-and-dent store near our “Technician?” She (the machine) had a new home. We discovered, on the day “I'm sorry, I don't recognize that option. after its installation, that the derelict Please try again. What can I help you with pleasant voice. I felt soothed. fridge was broken—the compressor would today?” kick on, overheat within seconds, and “Canada? Potato chips. .?” for him. In other words, Joe consulted his almost immediately shut down. I called van, and his van told him that he was in Sears to inquire about the problem and to In the interim, while I struggled to process possession of the needed relay, and also schedule a repair. I found myself in the the range of possible answers, the machine knew the exact location where that partic- tangled mess of those standard voice- repeated its question. “Service appoint- ular part was stored. In the span of a sin- recognition services that required me to ment,” I said, feeling flustered and unsure gle morning, I had interacted with a flex- dutifully listen to the layers upon layers of of my answer. “Are you looking for parts ible artificial intelligence program—one lists, attending to the most appropriate and repair?” it asked. She (the machine) that was capable of connecting related possible selection number (sometimes had a pleasant voice. I felt soothed. “Yes,” I ideas—as well as a service repair team revising it if a more accurate option told her. After the machine had collected consisting of one human technician and emerged), and then imitating (in ape my name and phone number, she one computer accountant. fashion) the exact word or phrases that explained that I had a scheduled repair visit would lead me to the next level of selec- that morning, and that I should be available This may seem a bit too much hyperbole, tions. Whenever I encounter one of these between the times of 8:00 AM and noon. but since I've read Ray Kurzweil's The systems, my single-minded goal is to find Well that was fine, but I was very busy, so I Singularity is Near, I have a heightened the shortest route to a breathing customer said, “Customer service.” The machine said, awareness of those moments when tech- service representative at the other end. I “Please hold while I connect you to one of nology and humanity seem powerfully managed to schedule an appointment, our customer service representatives.” intertwined—particularly as that human The Large and Small Powers of Ten: Accelerating Towards Kurzweil’s Singularity and technological collaboration connects rates imaginary dialogues (with both real this timeline until the third epoch. nologies, etc., ad infinitum. In support of to my own pedestrian experiences. In and imaginary characters) in order to fur- Accordingly, we are squarely in the fourth this assertion, Kurzweil conducts a brief this, his fifth book, Ray Kurzweil predicts ther clarify his ideas. These dialogues are epoch, Technology, with the fifth epoch but effective analysis of a number of the arrival of a transcendent stage in playful exchanges, almost always involving (the beginning of the singularity) due in recent technological developments, human evolution (the singularity) accom- a woman named Molly (also Kurzweil's the mid-2040s. It might seem strange that demonstrating an exponential (accelerat- plished through the accelerating develop- companion in his previous book, The Age we could have just entered the fourth ing) trend in each. These analyses ment of genetics, nanotechnology and of Spiritual Machines). Other characters epoch to find ourselves already transition- include: DNA sequencing by cost per robotics (GNR). With significant research include Molly from 2104, George from ing into the fifth, but Kurzweil's constant base pair and by sequence data; Random from both the popular and peer-reviewed 2048, Bill (“an environmentalist”), assertion is that evolution follows a “his- Access Memory; price-performance of spheres of publication, along with histori- Sigmund Freud, Ned Ludd (the iconic torical exponential” trend rather than an magnetic data storage; price-perform- namesake of the Luddite movement), as “intuitive linear” one, “that is, it expands ance of wireless data services; number of well as two bacteria (Futurist Bacteria and repeatedly multiplying by a constant” (p. internet hosts; Internet data traffic (bytes Friend of Futurist Bacteria). It is through 10). This exponential view relies on per year); Internet bandwidth (bits per these characters' interactions that we get a Kurzweil's Law of Accelerating Returns second); miniaturization of mechanical more complete vision of Kurzweil's singu- which he expresses both mathematically devices; citations of nanotechnology in larity. Characteristics of that future include and descriptively. I'll stick to the descrip- scholarly journals; and US Nano-related immortality, the complete absence of an patents (pp. 73-84). In each case, original biological body (consciousness, The Singularity is Near begins with Kurzweil demonstrates that these instead, exists within the “mesh” or web), technologies are rounding the the ability to manifest different forms in a broad description of Kurzweil's knee of the curve as they are both real and virtual worlds using a variety graphed as exponential trends. of techniques, the potential for the direct six epochs of evolution. This graphical concept is wonder- emotional and intellectual experience of fully echoed in the Acceleration others (a sort of perfect empathy), the tive: each evolutionary development capi- Studies Foundation logo (Figure 1). The ability to irrevocably merge with another talizes on previous developments result- speed with which Kurzweil conducts this consciousness (man or machine), and a ing in a positive feedback loop where new analysis is understandable. It's important 48 seemingly boundless intellectual potential technologies are more powerful and cost- to point out, however, that these graphs 49 for both knowledge acquisition and knowl- effective than previous ones and necessar- might as easily represent the lower half of cal parallels, as well as with his own mathe- edge synthesis. It is largely unfair of me to ily allow for a speedier and more efficient an S-curve (the trend that most individual matical formulas and trends analysis, present that description of Kurzweil's development of the next generation of technologies follow). The significant dif- Kurzweil makes a fairly convincing argu- future so early in this review, primarily more powerful and cost-effective tech- ference between these two trends, of ment (as far as prognostications go) for because Kurzweil himself seems to deliber- course, is that the S-curve has a ceiling, the inevitability of that transcendence. It is ately withhold that information in The whereas the exponential growth does not. also a work that meaningfully confuses the Singularity is Near long enough to lay the In most cases, a new technology sees the lines between scientific speculation and adequate foundations.