Threatened Species Strategy Year 3 Scorecard – Eastern Bristlebird

Threatened Species Strategy – Year 3 Priority Species Scorecard (2018)

Eastern Bristlebird Dasyornis brachypterus

Key Findings The northern population of Eastern Bristlebirds depends on a particular fire regime to maintain suitable grassy patches. Active management has halted rapid declines and numbers are now increasing. The central and southern populations appear either stable or increasing, mostly as a result of intensive management. Photo: Mick Bramwell

Significant trajectory change from 2005-15 to 2015-18? Yes, ongoing recovery. Priority future actions • Active weed control and fire management • Ongoing fox and cat control • Continue captive breeding programs

Full assessment information Background information 2018 population trajectory assessment

1. Conservation status and taxonomy 8. Expert elicitation for population trends 2. Conservation history and prospects 9. Immediate priorities from 2019 3. Past and current trends 10. Contributors 4. Key threats 11. Legislative documents 5. Past and current management 12. References 6. Support from the Australian Government 13. Citation 7. Measuring progress towards conservation

The primary purpose of this scorecard is to assess progress against the year three targets outlined in the Australian Government’s Threatened Species Strategy, including estimating the change in population trajectory of 20 bird species. It has been prepared by experts from the National Environmental Science Program’s Threatened Species Recovery Hub, with input from a number of taxon experts, a range of stakeholders and staff from the Office of the Threatened Species Commissioner, for the information of the Australian Government and is non-statutory. It has been informed by statutory planning documents that guide recovery of the species, such as Recovery Plans and/or Conservation Advices (see Section 11). The descriptive information in this scorecard is drawn from OEH (2012) and Stone et al. (2018) unless otherwise noted by additional citations.

The background information aims to provide context for estimation of progress in research and management (Section 7) and estimation of population size and trajectories (Section 8).

1 Information current to December 2018 Threatened Species Strategy – Year 3 Priority Species Scorecard (2018)

1. Conservation status and taxonomy

Conservation status 2018

IUCN Endangered

EPBC Endangered

QLD Endangered

NSW Endangered

VIC Threatened

Taxonomy: Two subspecies are apparent within D. brachypterus, although these are not recognised in current listing determinations: D. b. brachypterus (eastern Victoria, southern and central coastal New South Wales), D. b. monoides (north-eastern New South Wales and south-eastern Queensland).

While partial genetic analysis found few differences between northern and southern subspecies (Roberts et al. 2011, OEH 2012), they are phenotypically and behaviourally distinct (Schodde and Mason 1999) and the opinion expressed in OEH (2012) is inconsistent with subspecies differentiation for many other threatened Australian bird taxa. Taxonomic uniqueness high (1 genus/family, 3 species/genus, 2 subspecies/species).

2. Conservation history and prospects The northern subspecies of Eastern Bristlebird has a tiny and, until recently, rapidly shrinking range in upland areas of south-east Queensland and north-east New South Wales. The northern subspecies has distinctly different habitat requirements to the southern subspecies, being highly dependent on the area of contiguous grassy forest habitat, within only relatively large patches with a tall, thick grassy understorey likely to contain bristlebirds. Fire is essential to maintain such patches (Stone et al. 2017).

The southern subspecies of Eastern Bristlebird occurred historically from Myall Lakes on the central NSW coast to Lake Tyers in Victoria, but the range contracted following European settlement to a few small pockets of heathland and other suitable habitat in reserves south of Sydney, and on either side of the NSW/VIC border at Nadgee and Croajingalong National Parks. A reversal of the decline began in 2003 when bristlebirds were reintroduced to Beecroft Peninsula and, later, to the Woronora Plateau. All monitored populations are either stable or increasing in numbers as a result of intensive fire and exotic predator management.

2 Information current to December 2018 Threatened Species Strategy – Year 3 Priority Species Scorecard (2018)

3. Past and current trends Since monitoring began in the late 1980s, the northern Eastern Bristlebird has declined by 80% (OEH 2012). In 2014, 11 birds were recorded, suggesting 13-30 birds present; in 2016, 18 birds were recorded (suggesting 20-30 birds present); in 2018 25 birds were recorded (suggesting 30-40 birds present). Of these, three birds were in Qld and 35 were in NSW. A further 13 individuals are in captivity (Stone et al. 2018; Z. Stone, in litt, K. Roache in litt., D. Stewart in litt.).

The southern subspecies of Eastern Bristlebird may have occurred as far north as Kuringai Chase, north of Sydney (Baker 1998; records from near Port Macquarie in 1975 (Richardson 1975) and Wootton in 1922 (Chisholm 1958) were in habitat more typical of the northern subspecies) and as far west as Lake Tyers in Victoria (Bramwell 2008). By 1998 it was present at five locations between Sydney and far eastern Victoria (Baker 1998). The total population was estimated as 2,500 mature individuals in 2010 (Garnett et al. 2011; Barren Grounds/Budderoo National Park 1250 individuals, Jervis Bay 1100, Nadgee/Howe Flat 300, Cataract 50, Red Rocks 10) but numbers have increased substantially at Booderee National Park and the Beecroft Weapons Range, where reintroduced (Lindenmayer et al. 2018), at Nadgee (Anon. 2016) and probably at Cataract, where breeding was detected 3.5 years after reintroduction (Baker et al. 2012). There appear to have been no surveys at Red Rocks Nature Reserve since 2005 (Bain and McPhee) but there have been records in most years from 2011 to 2018 from private land at Bellawongarah, about half way between Barren Grounds and Red Rocks (Jackett C. and Jackett, N. 2011-18), suggesting there may be more birds along the escarpment than previously estimated.

Monitoring (existing programs): The northern subspecies of Eastern Bristlebird has been systematically surveyed since 1982. From 1999, annual (and more recently biannual) surveys have been conducted (Stone et al. 2018, K.Roche in litt.).

Annual and ongoing monitoring, funded by the OEH Saving our Species Program, takes place across much of the southern Eastern Bristlebird’s habitat. Annual and ongoing monitoring includes: • Annual surveys on set transects using standardised listening surveys at Barren Grounds (2006- ongoing), Jervis Bay (2002-ongoing), and Nadgee (2001-ongoing); • Annual surveys using set playback points throughout all known and potential habitat at Cataract Dam (2009-ongoing); • Annual feral predator monitoring (to assess effectiveness of control methods) using remote cameras at Barren Grounds/Budderoo (2012-ongoing) and Jervis Bay (2016-ongoing). Annual surveys using both standardised transect listening surveys and call playback has also taken place at Beecroft Peninsula (undertaken by the Department of Defence), beginning in 2003 (however with uncertainty around when this ceased).

Parks Australia and researchers from the Australian National University have been monitoring the population at Booderee National Park since 2004. Population monitoring is undertaken three times a year, detecting birds aurally along 10 transects. The survey was initially designed to examine the response of bristlebirds to fire, comparing population trends in burnt and unburnt habitat after a major wildfire that occurred in 2003. 3 Information current to December 2018 Threatened Species Strategy – Year 3 Priority Species Scorecard (2018)

DELWP undertook call playback surveys at fixed sites in Croajingalong National Park in 2014 and 2016.

Population trends: Tables 1 and 2 summarise the overall trend and status of the Eastern Bristlebird. The information provided in these tables is derived from OEH (2012) and Stone et al. (2018), with some amendments made by contributing experts based on new information.

Table 1a. Summary of the available information on Eastern Bristlebird and population size (northern subspecies), and (where possible) trend estimates between 2015 and 2018 for each parameter.

Population Published Confidence in 2015 Estimate 2018 Estimate Details parameters baseline estimates

WILD* Extent of 600 km2 600 km2 600 km2 High Occurrence

Area of Occupancy 9 km2 9 km2 9 km2 High

Dates of records As per Bird

and methods used Action Plan

11 birds 25 birds No. mature recorded, recorded, 50 High individuals indicating 13-30 indicating 30-40 birds present birds likely.

No. of subpops 4 4 4 High

Better information, rather than actual No. of locations 12 4 4 Low increase in the no. of locations Derived from latest Generation time 3.5 n/a n/a High global analysis by BirdLife International

CAPTIVE BREEDING Limited by space at No. mature n/a n/a 14 High captive breeding individuals facilities

No. locations n/a n/a 1 High

4 Information current to December 2018 Threatened Species Strategy – Year 3 Priority Species Scorecard (2018)

Table 1b. Summary of the available information on Eastern Bristlebird and population size (southern subspecies), and (where possible) trend estimates between 2015 and 2018 for each parameter.

Population Published Confidence in 2015 Estimate 2018 Estimate Details parameters baseline estimates

WILD*

Extent of 670 km2 670 km2 670 km2 High Occurrence

Area of Occupancy 205 km2 205 km2 250 km2 High

Dates of records As per Bird

and methods used Action Plan

No. mature 2500 2600 2800 High individuals

EBB density along EBB density along Any other measure transects (only transects (only of relative BG, JB, Nadgee - BG, JB, Nadgee - n/a High abundance averaged) = 1.08 averaged) = 1.86 (specify) (sd 0.52) (sd 0.37) EBBs/500m EBBs/500m No. of 3 5 5 High subpopulations

No. of locations 5 6 6 High

Derived from latest Generation time 3.5 n/a n/a High global analysis by BirdLife International *Including translocations

5 Information current to December 2018 Threatened Species Strategy – Year 3 Priority Species Scorecard (2018)

Table 2. Estimated recent (2005-2015) and current (2015-2018) population trends for Eastern Bristlebird subspecies.

Est. % Est. % of total 2005- Confidence in Confidence in of 2015-2018 Sub-population pop’n 2015 2005-2015 2015-2018 total Details trend (pre- trend trend trend pop’n 2015) (2018)

NORTHERN SUBSPECIES

Habitat restoration and Whole captive breeding are both 100 High Medium 100 population offering a positive prospect for the subspecies

SOUTHERN SUBSPECIES

Barren Grounds Although monitored no NR/ Budderoo 45 High High information publicly NP/ available Bellawongarah

Although monitored no Woronora information publicly Plateau 2 High Low available. Trend inferred (Cataract Dam) from Baker et al. (2012)

Bherwerre Peninsula (Jervis Bay NP, 38 High High Lindenmayer et al. (2018) Booderee NP, Defence land, private land)

Beecroft 4 High High Lindenmayer et al. (2018) Peninsula

Morton NP, Red 1 No recent information Rocks NR ? ? ? ? Nadgee NR, From report in local 10 High High NSW newspaper Croajingolong 6 High High NP, Vic

Whole All major populations 100 High High population stable or increasing

KEY: Improving Stable Deteriorating Unknown Confidence Description High Trend documented Medium Trend considered likely based on documentation

? Low Trend suspected but evidence indirect or equivocal

6 Information current to December 2018 Threatened Species Strategy – Year 3 Priority Species Scorecard (2018)

4. Key threats The threats listed here are derived from the OEH (2012) and Stone et al. (2018), with some amendments by contributing experts based on new information. Note that this is not a list of all plausible threats, but a subset of the threats that are likely to have the largest impact on populations. Fire For the northern population, changing fire regimes (particularly decreases in the frequency and/or intensity of fire) has led to the replacement of rank grassland (critical habitat for this subspecies), with woody shrubs and trees (Stone et al. 2018). In the southern population, fire destroys cover, but too infrequent fire can cause the vegetation to become too dense for nesting. Eastern Bristlebirds are particularly vulnerable to large-scale, intense fires with the extent, intensity and frequency of fires all important in determining habitat suitability. They can avoid fire by moving to unburnt areas and returning later when conditions are more suitable, which can be within 12 months of a fire passing through (OEH 2012). In addition, birds appear to persist in areas which are only partially burnt and a mosaic of burned and unburned areas occur (Lindenmayer et al., 2009). Weed invasion Crofton weed (Ageratina adenophora) invades unburnt disturbed habitats and replaces key tussocks critical for northern bristlebird nesting (OEH 2012, Z. Stone in litt.). Crofton weed is hard to remove through fire management alone as it is capable of re-sprouting following fire (Tasker & Watson in litt.), so intensive weed control (including spraying) is also required. Lantana (Lantana camara) also degrades bristlebird habitat by replacing large areas of grassy understorey (particularly along wetter rainforest margins). Lantana is abundant in areas where fire has been reduced, and it also contributes further to fire resistance in the landscape. Pre-burn spraying and fire management can be used to effectively control Lantana. Weeds such as Bitou bush (Chrysanthemoides monilifera) are a threat to southern bristlebird habitat in a small part of its range (Lindenmayer et al. 2018). Predation Predation of northern bristlebirds by foxes is a threat to which the subspecies is particularly vulnerable for the first three years after a fire (Lindenmayer et al. 2018). Bristlebird populations at Nadgee Nature Reserve recovered rapidly after fire in the absence of feral predator baiting programs, probably because the area has a healthy dingo population (D. Bain in litt.). The threat posed by cats is less well known but may be substantial, particularly when foxes are reduced in density. In southern Eastern Bristlebird populations, predation by feral cats (Felis catus) and red foxes (Vulpes vulpes) is a serious threat. However, the effects of predation are less significant for the northern subspecies because the thick grassy habitat reduces foraging opportunities for invasive predators. Nonetheless, any natural predation (by native predators) or the occasional predation by invasive predators could have a significant impact on Northern Eastern Bristlebirds, due to the very small number of wild individuals remaining. The long incubation period and close proximity of nests to the ground are also likely to make nesting birds, eggs and young particularly susceptible to predation (OEH 2012, Z. Stone in litt.). At present, fire management and habitat improvement at sites with minimal predator control have seen positive responses in the northern subspecies, indicating that habitat management may be adequate for improving the conservation status.

7 Information current to December 2018 Threatened Species Strategy – Year 3 Priority Species Scorecard (2018)

Drought While droughts are a natural phenomenon in Australia, climate change modelling suggests droughts are likely to be longer and more intense. Any suppression of reproductive capacity or compromised survivorship in the already small northern population could lead to rapid extinction (OEH 2012, Z. Stone in litt.). Bristlebirds are closely associated with the rainforest margin; all territories are found within 400m of a dense rainforest edge. These margins provide increased humidity for tall, thick tussock grasses and have better quality invertebrate resources for foraging (Stone, 2018). An increase in the frequency and duration of drought could have a negative impact on the condition of this ecotone, which will affect the reproductive potential of bristlebirds. Lack of genetic variability The northern Eastern Bristlebird population is very small, so inbreeding is inevitable, with many potentially deleterious consequences, particularly given the populations are already severely fragmented (OEH 2012, Z. Stone in litt.). The population is made up of only a handful of sites, most of which consist of single pairs or male territories, with the largest site containing seven territories. The population has undergone a significant genetic bottleneck and inbreeding is highly likely in the wild. Consequences of this have been observed in the captive population, where high infertility (>40%) and chick deformities occur (Z. Stone in litt).

The impacts of the major threats are different between the two subspecies, as summarised in Table 3. Table 3. The major threats facing the northern Eastern Bristlebird and their associated impact scores.

CURRENT THREAT IMPACT

Threat Timing Extent Severity

NORTHERN SUBSPECIES 1. Suppression of fire leading to woody Continuing/ongoing 50-90% of range 50-100% shrub and tree encroachment

2. Predation Continuing/ongoing >90% of range 20-29%

3. Weeds Continuing/ongoing >90% of range 20-29%

4. Drought Continuing/ongoing >90% of range 50-100%

5. Lack of genetic variability Continuing/ongoing >90% of range 30-49%

SOUTHERN SUBSPECIES 1. Inappropriate fire regimes (large and intense fire is detrimental, as is too Continuing/ongoing 50-90% of range 30-49% frequent fire)

2. Red foxes Continuing/ongoing >90% of range 30-49%

3. Feral cats Continuing/ongoing >90% of range 30-49%

Negligible declines 4. Weed invasion Continuing/ongoing 1-50% of range (<1%)

8 Information current to December 2018 Threatened Species Strategy – Year 3 Priority Species Scorecard (2018)

Timing: continuing/ongoing; near future: any occurrence probable within one generation (includes former threat no longer causing impact but could readily recur); distant future: any occurrence likely to be further than one generation into the future (includes former threat no longer causing impact and unlikely to recur). Extent: <1% of range; 1-50%; 50-90%; >90%. Severity: (over three generations or 10 years, whichever is longer) Causing no decline; Negligible declines (<1%); Not negligible but <20%; 20-29%; 30-49%; 50-100%; Causing/could cause order of magnitude fluctuations. 5. Past and current management Recent and current management actions thought to be contributing to the conservation of the Eastern Bristlebird are summarised in Table 4. This information is a collation of material provided by experts. A Recovery Plan (OEH 2012) covering this subspecies is in place, guiding recovery action (see Section 11). Table 4. Management actions thought to be contributing to the conservation of the northern Eastern Bristlebird.

Est. % Contributors and Action Location Timing population partners

NORTHERN SUBSPECIES

Long term vegetation and Since 1998 to Border Ranges, NSW 90 OEH habitat monitoring present

Nest surveys and population NSW and QLD in the surveys using conservation 2014-2015 100 OEH Border Ranges detector dog

Pilot captive breeding program Facilities located in 2004-2008 OEH completed QLD

Establish co-operative captive Facilities located in OEH and Currumbin breeding program at Currumbin 2014-ongoing QLD, funded by OEH Wildlife Sanctuary Wildlife Sanctuary

Establish additional captive Fleay’s Wildlife Park, breeding facilities at Fleay’s QLD 2015, present with assistance from Wildlife Park volunteers

SOUTHERN SUBSPECIES

Fox control, with levels remaining unchanged and below target range (<10% of Annual/ongoing OEH (NPWS) core Barren cameras) at Barren Grounds), (Has only been duties and Fox Threat Grounds/Budderoo; slightly above target range intermittent at Abatement Plan Jervis Bay (<12% of cameras) at Budderoo Jervis Bay) program. and unchanged at target range (<40% of cameras) at Jervis Bay

Barren Cat control Annual/ongoing OEH Grounds/Budderoo

Barren Grounds Fire planning – develop fire Nature Reserve; management strategies for Budderoo National OEH (NPWS) core Annual/ongoing reserves which target EBB Park; Jervis Bay duties requirements National Park; Nadgee Nature Reserve

9 Information current to December 2018 Threatened Species Strategy – Year 3 Priority Species Scorecard (2018)

Cataract Dam – Fox control Sydney water Annual/ongoing Water NSW Catchments

Translocation from Jervis Bay University of Beecroft Peninsula 2002-2005 and new population established Wollongong and OEH

Translocation from Barren University of Grounds and new population Cataract Dam 2008 Wollongong established

Control began in 1999, monthly baiting began in Intensive feral predator (fox) 2003 and ongoing. control, with monthly baiting at Seasonal camera trap monitoring 120 bait stations across the Booderee NP Parks Australia entire park program initiated Jan 2017. Avg. fox incidence of 0.11 (sd 0.04) from five rounds of camera trapping

Fire management Booderee NP Ongoing Parks Australia

Southern Ark (DELWP) Weeds and Feral predator baiting Croajingalong NP Ongoing Pests on Public Land Program

6. Actions undertaken or supported by the Australian Government resulting from inclusion in the Threatened Species Strategy The southern subspecies are part of threatened species recovery actions at Booderee National park, undertaken in partnership with traditional owners, where management actions to protect the Eastern Bristlebird (mosaic burning, weed reduction and feral predator management) have proven effective and also support other threatened species that share its habitat. This management dates from well before the TSS, but targeted Australian Government funding has contributed to some additional fox control to support reintroductions of small native mammals to the park, and this may have produced benefits for southern bristlebirds.

The TSS has not yet influenced the trajectory of the northern subspecies.

10 Information current to December 2018 Threatened Species Strategy – Year 3 Priority Species Scorecard (2018)

7. Measuring progress towards conservation Table 5. Progress towards management understanding and management implementation for each of the major threats affecting the Eastern Bristlebird in 2015 (i.e. timing of TSS implementation) and 2018, using the progress framework developed by Garnett et al. 2018.

PROGRESS IN MANAGING THREATS

Understanding of how to manage Extent to which threat being Threat Year threat managed

NORTHERN SUBSPECIES

1. Research being undertaken or 2015 completed but limited understanding on 0. No management 1. Suppression in fire how to manage threat frequency and/or 2. Work has been initiated to roll out intensity 3. Solutions being trialled but work only 2018 solutions where threat applies across initiated recently the taxon’s range

2. Research has provided strong 2015 1. Management limited to trials direction on how to manage threat 2. Predation 2. Research has provided strong 2018 1. Management limited to trials direction on how to manage threat

2. Research has provided strong 2015 1. Management limited to trials direction on how to manage threat

3. Crofton weed 2. Work has been initiated to roll out 2. Research has provided strong 2018 solutions where threat applies across direction on how to manage threat the taxon’s range

1.Research being undertaken or 2015 completed but limited understanding on 0. No management how to manage threat 4. Drought 1.Research being undertaken or 2018 completed but limited understanding on 0. No management how to manage threat

1.Research being undertaken or 2015 completed but limited understanding on 0. No management 5. Lack of genetic how to manage threat variability 1.Research being undertaken or 1. Management limited to trials1. 2018 completed but limited understanding on Management limited to trials how to manage threat

11 Information current to December 2018 Threatened Species Strategy – Year 3 Priority Species Scorecard (2018)

Understanding of how to manage Extent to which threat being Threat Year threat managed

SOUTHERN SUBSPECIES

4. Solutions are enabling achievement 5. Trial management is providing clear 1. Inappropriate fire 2015 but only with continued conservation evidence that it can deliver objectives regimes (large and intervention intense fire is detrimental, as is too 4. Solutions are enabling achievement 5. Trial management is providing clear frequent fire) 2018 but only with continued conservation evidence that it can deliver objectives intervention

3. Trial management is providing clear 2015 1. Management limited to trials evidence that it can deliver objectives 3. Feral cats 3. Trial management is providing clear 2018 1. Management limited to trials evidence that it can deliver objectives

6. Research complete and being applied 4. Solutions are enabling achievement 2015 OR ongoing research associated with but only with continued conservation adaptive management of threat intervention 4. Weed invasion 6. Research complete and being applied 4. Solutions are enabling achievement 2018 OR ongoing research associated with but only with continued conservation adaptive management of threat intervention > Green shading indicates an improvement in our understanding or management of threats between years 2015 and 2018, while red shading indicates deterioration in our understanding or management of threats.

KEY: Score Understanding of how to manage threat Extent to which threat is being managed 0 No knowledge and no research No management Research being undertaken or completed but limited 1 Management limited to trials understanding on how to manage threat Research has provided strong direction on how to Work has been initiated to roll out solutions where 2 manage threat threat applies across the taxon’s range Solutions being trialled but work only initiated Solutions have been adopted but too early to 3 recently demonstrate success Trial management under way but not yet clear Solutions are enabling achievement but only with 4 evidence that it can deliver objectives continued conservation intervention Good evidence available that solutions are enabling Trial management is providing clear evidence that it 5 achievement with little or no conservation can deliver objectives intervention Research complete and being applied OR ongoing 6 research associated with adaptive management of The threat no longer needs management threat

12 Information current to December 2018 Threatened Species Strategy – Year 3 Priority Species Scorecard (2018)

8. Expert elicitation for population trends An expert elicitation process was undertaken to assess population trends for each subspecies for the periods 2005-2015 and post-2015 under the following management scenarios. Please note that differences between Management Scenarios 2 and 3 (Fig. 1 and 2) are difficult to attribute, as it can be difficult to determine whether actions undertaken after 2015 were influenced by the Threatened Species Strategy or were independent of it (see Summary Report for details of methods).

NORTHERN SUBSPECIES (Figure 1) Management Scenario 1 (red line): no conservation management undertaken since 2015, and no new actions implemented. • Active fire management and weed control ceases, • Captive breeding abandoned Under this scenario, remaining habitat will rapidly be invaded by woody weeds and be abandoned. Management Scenario 2 (blue line): continuation of existing conservation management (i.e. actions undertaken before implementation of the Threatened Species Strategy, or independent of the Threatened Species Strategy). • Active fire management • Ongoing control of crofton weed and lantana • Genetic management of captive population • Captive breeding and release Under this scenario, the population can gradually increase, the constraints being the limited capacity of captive breeding space. Management Scenario 3 (green line): continuation of existing management, augmented by support mobilised by the Australian Government under the Threatened Species Strategy. • Active fire management • Ongoing control of crofton weed and lantana • Genetic management of captive population • Captive breeding and release As for Scenario 2. The TSS investment has been confined to the southern population; the northern population is not recognised as a separate subspecies. Overall estimated population trajectories subject to management scenarios considered The northern subspecies of Eastern Bristlebird is currently being managed under Scenario 2 (blue line). Note that the green line is not visible, as the Australian Government has not directly invested in the northern population.

13 Information current to December 2018 Threatened Species Strategy – Year 3 Priority Species Scorecard (2018)

Figure 1. Estimated relative percentage change in population under each of the management scenarios described above for the northern subspecies.

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SOUTHERN SUBSPECIES (Figure 2) Management Scenario 1 (red line): no conservation management undertaken since 2015, and no new actions implemented. • Active fire management ceases • Fox control ceases Under this scenario, periodic large scale fires will gradually deplete populations and their recovery will be compromised by fox predation. Management Scenario 2 (blue line): continuation of existing conservation management (i.e. actions undertaken before implementation of the Threatened Species Strategy or independent of the Threatened Species Strategy). • Active fire management • Ongoing fox and cat control • Weed removal • Protection of dingo population at selected sites Under this scenario, the population will gradually increase with existing populations slowly increasing in density and potentially colonising other suitable habitat within dispersal range Management Scenario 3 (green line): continuation of existing management, augmented by support mobilised by the Australian Government under the Threatened Species Strategy. • Active fire management • Ongoing fox and cat control, slightly augmented in Booderee National Park • Weed removal • Protection of dingo population at selected sites Little different from Scenario 2. The TSS investment has been confined to a single area and is augmenting an existing program. Overall estimated population trajectories subject to management scenarios considered The southern subspecies of Eastern Bristlebird is currently being managed under Scenario 3 (green line). While the OTSC has provided some support, this has been confined to a single area and is unlikely to have great impact on overall population trajectories (thus, the blue and green lines follow similar trajectories).

15 Information current to December 2018 Threatened Species Strategy – Year 3 Priority Species Scorecard (2018)

Figure 2. Estimated relative percentage change in population under each of the management scenarios described above for the southern subspecies.

Figures 1 and 2 are informed by data derived from 8 expert assessments of northern Eastern Bristlebird and 7 expert assessments of southern Eastern Bristlebird respectively, predicting expected response to management, using four-step elicitation and the IDEA protocol (Hemming et al. 2017), where experts are asked to provide best estimates, lowest and highest plausible estimates, and an associated level of confidence. In both figures, the dashed line represents the baseline value (i.e. as at 2015, standardised to 100). Values above this line indicate a relative increase in population size, while values below this line indicate a relative decrease in population size. Shading indicates confidence bounds (i.e. the lowest and highest plausible estimates).

Population size projections based on expert elicitation are extended here to 2025, 2035 and 2045 (i.e. 10, 20 and 30 years after the establishment of the Threatened Species Strategy) on the grounds that some priority conservation management actions may take many years to achieve substantial conservation outcomes. However, we note also that there will be greater uncertainty around estimates of population size into the more distant future because, for example, novel threats may affect the species, managers may develop new and more efficient conservation options, and the impacts of climate change may be challenging to predict.

16 Information current to December 2018 Threatened Species Strategy – Year 3 Priority Species Scorecard (2018)

Improved trajectory (Threatened Species Strategy Year 3 target): The primary purpose of this scorecard is to assess progress against achieving the year three targets outlined in the Australian Government’s Threatened Species Strategy, i.e. a demonstrated improved trajectory for at least half of the priority species (10 birds and 10 mammals). To assess this, we first use the expert-derived trend between 2005-15 (i.e. 10 years prior to implementation of the TSS) as a baseline for assessing whether there has been an improvement in trajectory in the time since implementation of the TSS (i.e. 2015-18). Table 6 below summarises this information, where negative values indicate a declining population, and positive values indicate an increasing population. We used Wilcoxon match-paired tests to compare trajectories for these two periods; a significant result (probability <0.05) indicates that there was a high concordance amongst experts that their trajectory estimates for 2005-15 were different to their estimates for 2015-18.

Table 6. A comparison of the relative annual percentage population change for the periods 2005-2015 and 2015-2018.

Year 3 Pre-TSS trend Post-TSS trend target Significant concordance among elicitors? (2005-2015) (2015-2018) met? Annual percentage The trajectory has changed from a decline to increasing; there was high concordance population -7.07 12.19 among elicitors, and this trajectory change change -  was significant northern Annual percentage The trajectory of the southern population has altered little, and there was poor concordance population 1.70 1.41 among elicitors on the direction of this change -  change. southern

Additional actions that could improve trajectory The potential impact of carrying out specific additional conservation measures on the population trajectory of the Eastern Bristlebird was also evaluated through expert elicitation. Current management for the northern population includes some fire management and captive breeding has been initiated. In the southern population, current management includes fire management and contol of foxes, cats and weeds. Additional actions that could further improve the population trajectory of the Eastern Bristlebird include:

Northern subspecies • Active weed control and fire management of multiple sites in Queensland and New South Wales on both private and public lands • Captive breeding population judiciously augmented by birds from the southern population • Expanded capacity for captive breeding combined with releases at multiple sites

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If captive breeding facilities are expanded, advantage can be taken of existing improvements in habitat condition to double the population by 2020 with further increases probable as more sites are made available.

Southern subspecies • Active fire management • Ongoing fox and cat control • Weed removal • Protection of dingo population at selected sites • Further translocations, particularly in Victoria

Following the success in New South Wales, expansion of the reintroduction program to Victoria could further secure the subspecies and potentially pre-empt climate change impacts on habitat suitability.

9. Immediate priorities from 2019 The priorities listed here are derived from OEH (2012) and Stone et al. (2018), with some amendments made by contributing experts based on new information. Identification of these priorities in this document is for information and is non-statutory. For statutory conservation planning documents, such as Recovery Plans or Conservation Advices, please see Section 11. Northern subspecies Data collection: • Monitor biannually, involving landholders • Identify additional territories/potential habitat • Monitor supplemented populations Management actions: • Restore habitat with fire • Increase captive population • Reintroduce individuals to rehabilitated habitat

Southern subspecies Data collection: • Develop a more effective means of feral cat control for heathland habitat • Monitor trends, particularly in translocated and source populations Management actions: • Continue fire management • Continue fox control in vulnerable sites • Continue dingo protection in Nadgee National Park • In Victoria, translocate to historical sites

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10. Contributors Stephen Garnett, Sarah Legge, John Woinarski, Hayley Geyle, Kelly Roche, David Stewart, Zoe Stone, Nicholas MacGregor, Peter Menkhorst, Guy Dutson, Richard Loyn, Allan Burbidge, David Bain, Nick Dexter, David Lindenmayer, Dion Maple, Margarita Goumas, Marc Perri, Lucas Bluff, Stephen Henry.

11. Legislative documents SPRAT profile: http://www.environment.gov.au/cgi-bin/sprat/public/publicspecies.pl?taxon_id=533 OEH (2012). National Recovery Plan for Eastern Bristlebird Dasyornis brachypterus. Office of Environment and Heritage, Department of Premier and Cabinet (NSW), Sydney. Available from: http://www.environment.gov.au/resource/national-recovery-plan-eastern-bristlebird-dasyornis- brachypterus. In effect under the EPBC Act from 30-Jan-2014

12. References Garnett S.T., Butchart S.H.M., Baker G.B., Bayraktarov E., Buchanan K.L., Burbidge A.A., Chauvenet A.L.M., Christidis L., Ehmke G., Grace M., Hoccom D.G., Legge S.M., Leiper I., Lindenmayer D.B., Loyn R.H., Maron M., McDonald P., Menkhorst P., Possingham H.P., Radford J., Reside A.E., Watson D.M., Watson J.E.M., Wintle B., Woinarski J.C.Z., and Geyle H.M. (2018) Metrics of progress in the understanding and management of threats to Australian Birds. Conservation Biology https://doi.org/10.1111/cobi.13220. Hemming, V., Burgman, M.A., Hanea, A.M., McBride, M.F., and Wintle B.C. (2017) A practical guide to structured expert elicitation using the IDEA protocol. Methods in Ecology and Evolution, 9, 169- 180. Jackett, C., and Jackett, N. 2011-2018. Bellawongarah' - private property (restricted access) https://ebird.org/hotspot/L966730. Lindenmayer, D.B., MacGregor, C., and Dexter, N. (2018) Recovering Australian Threatened Species: A Book of Hope, p.115-124. (Eds. Garnett, S., Woinarski, J., Lindenmayer, D. and Latch, P.) CSIRO Publishing, Melbourne. Lindenmayer, D.B., MacGregor, C., Wood, J.T., Cunningham, R.B., Crane, M., Michael, D., Montague- Drake, R., Brown, D., Fortescue, M., Dexter, N., Hudson, M., and Gill, A.M. (2009). What factors influence rapid post-fire site re-occupancy? A case study of the endangered Eastern Bristlebird in eastern Australia. International Journal of Wildland Fire, 18, 84-95. Lindenmayer, D.B., MacGregor, C., Wood, J., Westgate, M., Ikin, K., Foster, C., and Zentelis, R. (2016). Bombs, fire and biodiversity: vertebrate fauna occurrence in areas subject to military training. Biological Conservation, 204, 276-283. OEH 2012. National Recovery Plan for Eastern Bristlebird Dasyornis brachypterus. Office of Environment and Heritage, Department of Premier and Cabinet (NSW), Sydney. Richardson, C.T. (1975). Checklist S16666255. https://ebird.org/australia/view/checklist/S16666255 Roberts, D. G., Baker, J., and Cécile, P. (2011). Population genetic structure of the endangered Eastern Bristlebird, Dasyornis brachypterus; implications for conservation. Conservation Genetics 12, 1075–108 Schodde, R. and Mason, I., 1999. The directory of Australian birds Passerines. CSIRO Publishing, Collingwood. Stone, Z.L., Tasker, E. and Maron, M., 2018. Grassy patch size and structure are important for northern Eastern Bristlebird persistence in a dynamic ecosystem. Emu-Austral Ornithology 118: 269-280.

19 Information current to December 2018 Threatened Species Strategy – Year 3 Priority Species Scorecard (2018)

13. Citation Please cite this document as:

National Environmental Science Program Threatened Species Research Hub (2019) Threatened Species Strategy Year 3 Scorecard – Eastern Bristlebird. Australian Government, Canberra. Available from: http://www.environment.gov.au/biodiversity/threatened/species/20-birds-by- 2020/eastern-bristlebird

20 Information current to December 2018