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Atmospheric River Case Studies in the U.S Susquehanna University Scholarly Commons Senior Scholars Day Apr 27th, 12:00 AM - 12:00 AM Atmospheric River Case Studies in the U.S. Mid-Atlantic Region Jonathan Lewis Susquehanna University Follow this and additional works at: https://scholarlycommons.susqu.edu/ssd Part of the Atmospheric Sciences Commons, Climate Commons, and the Meteorology Commons Lewis, Jonathan, "Atmospheric River Case Studies in the U.S. Mid-Atlantic Region" (2021). Senior Scholars Day. 33. https://scholarlycommons.susqu.edu/ssd/2021/posters/33 This Event is brought to you for free and open access by Scholarly Commons. It has been accepted for inclusion in Senior Scholars Day by an authorized administrator of Scholarly Commons. For more information, please contact [email protected]. Atmospheric River Case Studies in the U.S. Mid-Atlantic Region Jonathan Lewis & Dr. Katherine Straub Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences Susquehanna University, Selinsgrove, PA Abstract Category 5 AR Events “Typical” AR 5 Case Study AR Climatology This case study is an extreme case of a typical AR that occurs in the mid-Atlantic region. Atmospheric Rivers (ARs) are narrow bands of atmospheric moisture that bring a significant Start Date End Date Max IVT (kg m-1 s-1) Length (Days) Occurring during the cold season from February Average Frequency of Each AR Category by Month from 2010-2020, Method 3 amount of precipitation to the impacted region. While ARs on the West Coast of the United 1/25/2010 1/25/2010 1626.2 1 6-7, 2020, this AR drew its moisture from the 7 9/26/2010 10/1/2010 1913.2 6 southwest and occurred ahead of a deep upper- States are more frequently analyzed, evaluation of the East Coast mid-Atlantic region is also 6 important in understanding this phenomenon. East Coast ARs can be studied using the 8/24/2011 8/29/2011 2650.6 6 level trough. Immediately after the low-level jet techniques already established to study West Coast ARs. Using 6-hourly MERRA-2 data with 9/18/2012 9/19/2012 1530.9 2 transporting high moisture air maximized, a 5 integrated water vapor transport (IVT) and integrated water vapor (IWV) thresholds, we 10/28/2012 10/30/2012 1960.6 3 steep drop in moisture and IVT occurred as the cold front passed through the region. 4 developed an extended scale to account for the longer duration ARs that occur, an algorithm 1/29/2013 1/31/2013 1591.4 3 IVT Amplitude to study AR events from 2010-2020, and a case study approach to analyze Category 5 mid- 3 4/6/2017 4/6/2017 1807.5 1 2000 Atlantic (38°N-42°N, 71.5°W-76.5°W) AR events. We developed 3 distinct methods for Average Number ARs of 6/15/2017 6/26/2017 1602.4 12 1800 2 analyzing ARs over the region. All 3 methods classify AR duration in the same manner, but the 10/29/2017 10/30/2017 2079.2 2 1600 differences stem from how IVT thresholds are identified and the inclusion (or not) of IWV as a 1 7/21/2018 8/5/2018 1595.6 16 1400 ) 1 threshold for AR identification. Method 1 identified 533 AR events from 2010-2020 with an - 10/6/2018 10/12/2018 1755.5 7 s 1200 0 1 average of 48.45 ARs/year. Method 2 identified 512 AR events with an average of 46.55 - Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 11/13/2018 11/13/2018 1664.5 1 1000 AR1 AR2 AR3 AR4 AR5 ARs/year. Method 3 identified 669 AR events with an average of 60.82 ARs/year. Method 1 800 1/24/2019 1/24/2019 1774.7 1 IVT (kg m was found to be unsatisfactory in its ability to capture ARs across the region. Methods 2 and 1/11/2020 1/12/2020 1743.9 2 600 • More ARs in warmer season vs. colder season • Longer ARs in summer may contain multiple ARs 3 are used in different applications and are both successful in identifying ARs. We identified 400 2/6/2020 2/7/2020 1896.6 2 • Moisture present in the summer helps to fuel • Category 1 (blue) and Category 2 (green) ARs 18 Category 5 AR events from 2010-2020 and classified them into 3 types of ARs: “Typical” 200 4/13/2020 4/13/2020 1716.1 1 additional ARs most frequent Events, Tropical Cyclone Events, and Summer Events. Each extreme case type has helped to 0 develop an understanding of East Coast ARs in the mid-Atlantic area. 9/25/2020 9/30/2020 1839.9 6 Average Length (Days) of Each AR Event by Month from 2010-2020, Method 3 12/24/2020 12/25/2020 1604.2 2 25 *All Cat 5 ARs in table identified by Method 3 • 3 Types of AR Events (colored in table above): 20 1. “Typical” (white): AR events occur in fall through spring ahead of surface low Identifying ARs pressure systems 15 2. Tropical Cyclone (green): Different way of thinking about hurricanes, tropical storms, and transition to extratropical events 10 Atmospheric River: Average Length (Days) 3. Summer (yellow): Summer AR events contain multiple moisture pulses A long, narrow, and 5 • Common features: transient corridor of strong ▪ Very high low-level specific humidity in all events 0 horizontal water ▪ Highest regional IVT amplitude about ¾ of the way through the life of the AR Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec vapor transport that is • Corresponding time stamp shows highest impact on mid-Atlantic region AR1 AR2 AR3 AR4 AR5 typically associated with ▪ Events occur ahead of distinctive 300 hPa troughs • Cold Season: • Warm Season: a low-level jet stream ▪ Deep tropospheric moisture present in all events ▪ Shorter ARs ▪ Longer ARs → Pulses → Multiple ARs? ▪ AR Category more likely achieved by a single ▪ AR Category more likely achieved by ahead of the cold front of ▪ High IVT: high IVT value above respective threshold consecutive low IVT values an extratropical cyclone. • Warm sector of low pressure system contains moist air The water vapor in • Strong winds from the south and/or southwest Average Frequency of Each AR Category by Year from 1980-2020, Method 2 60 240 atmospheric rivers is ▪ Distinct contrast in moisture depth between AR and post-cold front air mass 230 supplied by tropical and/or 50 220 extratropical moisture 40 210 sources (AMS, 2019). 200 Tropical Cyclone AR 5 Case Study Summer AR 5 Case Study 30 190 ) and IWV (dm) Amplitudes Number ARs of 1 - This AR is another way of thinking about and Summer AR events are often longer. This case s 20 180 1 • For this study, IVT and IWV are calculated - classifying tropical cyclones. This example study lasted from June 15-26, 2017 and drew its 170 over the mid-Atlantic region (see map). 10 occurred from August 24-29, 2011 and was moisture from multiple sources. During this IVT (kg m • Minimum requirements to be classified originally classified as Hurricane Irene. Irene time, both Tropical Storm Cindy, which was 160 as an AR event: formed in the western Atlantic, tracked along occurring in the Gulf of Mexico, and the 0 150 the East Coast, then became an extratropical Bermuda High were supplying moisture to the ▪ IVT > 250 kg m-1 s-1 and IWV > 2.0 cm cyclone as it passed over Vermont. The origin of region to fuel the AR. The multiple pulses in the AR 1 AR 2 AR 3 AR 4 AR 5 IVT Average IWV Average for > 24-hour duration, or this AR comes from the south, drawing its IVT Amplitude graph suggest multiple ARs • Increase in: • Category 1 and Category 2 ARs most frequent moisture from the Atlantic Ocean. occurring within the same system. ▪ IVT > 500 kg m-1 s-1 and IWV > 2.0 cm, ▪ Frequency of ARs • Frequency of Category 3, 4, and 5 ARs increasing IVT Amplitude IVT Amplitude ▪ Integrated water vapor transport (IVT) over last decade any duration 3000.0 1800.0 ▪ Integrated water vapor (IWV) • Connection to climate change? 1600.0 2500.0 1400.0 2000.0 1200.0 ) ) 1 1 - - s s 1 1 - - 1000.0 1500.0 800.0 References IVT IVT (kg m IVT IVT (kg m Method Comparisons 1000.0 600.0 400.0 American Meteorological Society (AMS). (2019, March 15). Atmospheric river. Glossary of Meteorology. 500.0 Retrieved December 23, 2020, from https://glossary.ametsoc.org/wiki/Atmospheric_river 200.0 Method 1 Method 2 Method 3 Cordeira, J. M., Kaminski, A. N., Metz, N. D., Duncan, M., Bachli, K., Ericksen, M., Glade, I., Roberts, C., & 0.0 Average IVT Average IVT and Maximum IVT and 0.0 Evans, C. (2020, January 14). A climatology of atmospheric rivers over the Northeast United Threshold Only Average IWV Thresholds Average IWV Thresholds States [Conference session]. 33rd Conference on Climate Variability and Change, Boston, MA, United States. https://ams.confex.com/ams/2020Annual/videogateway.cgi/id/516212?recordingid=516212 Frequency of Each AR Category by Year from 2010-2020, All 3 Methods Cordeira, J. M., Ralph, F. M., Martin, A., Gaggini, N., Spackman, J. R., Neiman, P. J., Rutz, J. J., & Pierce, R. 70 68 67 67 (2017). Forecasting atmospheric rivers during CalWater 2015. Bulletin of the American 64 62 Meteorological Society, 98(3), 449-459. https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-15-00245.1 60 60 59 60 58 Newell, R. E., Newell, N. E., Zhu, Y., & Scott, C. (1992).
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