Marginal Seats

Marginal Seats Standard Note: SN/SG/06549 Last updated: 8 February 2013 Author: David Hough Section Social and General Statistics Section This note lists UK Parliament seats by marginality using results for the 2010 General Election. The results are taken from the Research Paper (RP10/36) General Election 2010 (Table 18.9) Majorities are measured as the difference between the number of votes for the first and second placed candidates. Percentage majorities are these figures as a proportion of votes for all candidates and these are a better guide to relative marginality of different seats. It is likely that the boundaries of parliamentary constituencies used in 2010 will be the same at the next General Election. This information is provided to Members of Parliament in support of their parliamentary duties and is not intended to address the specific circumstances of any particular individual. It should not be relied upon as being up to date; the law or policies may have changed since it was last updated; and it should not be relied upon as legal or professional advice or as a substitute for it. A suitably qualified professional should be consulted if specific advice or information is required. This information is provided subject to our general terms and conditions which are available online or may be provided on request in hard copy. Authors are available to discuss the content of this briefing with Members and their staff, but not with the general public. Contents A Summary 3 B Notes 4 C Appendix tables: 2010 General Election results 1. Seats by majority 5 1.1. All seats 5 1.2. Labour 16 1.3. Conservative 21 1.4. Liberal Democrat 27 1.5. Others 29 2. Seats by % majority 30 2.1. All seats 30 2.2. Labour 41 2.3. Conservative 46 2.4. Liberal Democrat 52 2.5 Others 54 2 A. Summary The table below shows the most and least marginal seats following the 2010 General Election (see Notes below for explanation of By-elections since 2010): 2010 General Election: 10 most and least marginal seats The seat ranked 1 has the low est majority or low est % majority By- election Party Majority since Rank Constituency MP Elected 1st 2nd Votes % vote 2010 Most marginal by majority 1 Fermanagh and South Tyrone Michelle Gildernew SF IND 4 0.0% 2 Hampstead and Kilburn Glenda Jackson LAB CON 42 0.1% 3 North Warwickshire Daniel Byles CON LAB 54 0.1% 4 Camborne and Redruth George Eustice CON LD 66 0.2% 5 Bolton West Julie Hilling LAB CON 92 0.2% 5 Thurrock Jackie Doyle-Price CON LAB 92 0.2% 7 Oldham East and Saddleworth Phil Woolas LAB LD 103 0.2% LAB 8 Hendon Matthew Offord CON LAB 106 0.2% 9 Sheffield Central Paul Blomfield LAB LD 165 0.4% 10 Solihull Lorely Burt LD CON 175 0.3% Least marginal by majority 641 Bootle Joe Benton LAB LD 21,181 51.3% 642 Beaconsfield Dominic Grieve CON LD 21,782 41.5% 643 South Holland and The Deepings John Hayes CON LD 21,880 43.6% 644 Rayleigh and Wickford Mark Francois CON LD 22,338 42.7% 645 West Ham Lyn Brown LAB CON 22,534 48.0% 646 Witney David Cameron CON LD 22,740 39.4% 647 Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath Gordon Brown LAB SNP 23,009 50.2% 648 Richmond (Yorks) William Hague CON LD 23,336 43.7% 649 Knowsley George Howarth LAB LD 25,686 57.5% 650 East Ham Stephen Timms LAB CON 27,826 55.2% • The most marginal seat in the UK is Fermanagh and South Tyrone, won by Sinn Fein’s Michelle Gildernew from the independent candidate with a majority of 4 votes. • The least marginal seat is East Ham won by Labour’s Stephen Timms who has the largest majority in the UK, 27,826 over the Conservative Party in East Ham. Steve Rotheram, also Labour, has the largest percentage majority, 57.7% in Liverpool, Walton. • The smallest majority recorded since 1918 is 2 votes, for A.J. Flint (Labour), in Ilkeston North in 1931 and for Mark Oaten (Liberal Democrat), in Winchester in 19971. The latter result was disputed and declared void due to an irregularity by the 1 There was a tied vote in Ashton-Under-Lyne in 1886; the candidate, J.E.W. Addison, was elected on the casting vote of the Returning Officer (from F.W.S. Craig British Parliamentary Election Results 1885-1918, PRS,1989) 3 Returning Officer; in the re-run of the election, Mark Oaten had a majority of 21,556 votes. 2 • The largest majority recorded since 1918 is 62,253 for Sir A.C. Rawson (Conservative), in Brighton in 1931. The Conservatives won a 1940 by-election in Middleton and Prestwich by a percentage majority of 97.4% over their only challengers, the British Union of Fascists and National Socialists. The largest General Election majority was 96.0% for Conservative G.B.H. Currie in Down North in 1959.3 The table below summarises the placing of the parties at the General Election. Of the 190 seats where the Conservatives were placed second, they trailed Labour in 77% and the Liberal Democrats in 20%. Of the 159 seats where the Labour candidates were placed second, they trailed the Conservatives in 86% and the Liberal Democrats in 11%. Of the 243 seats where the Liberal Democrats were placed second, they trailed the Conservatives in 69%; this contrasts with the 2005 election, where most of their second-place losses were to Labour (56%). Party of winner by party of second place candidate Winner CON LAB LD OTH Total CON 147 38 5 190 LAB 137 17 5 159 Second LD 167 76 0 243 OTH 2 35 2 19 58 Total3062585729 650 B. Notes Data shown in the attached tables are results in the 2010 General Election. They do not take into account by-elections since the General Election. Where there have been by-elections to date, the party that won the by-election is shown on the far right of tables using the information from the Standard Note (No SN/SG/ 05833) on By-Elections since 2010 General Election 2 Rallings and Thrasher, British Electoral Facts 1832-2012, Biteback 2012, p301-302 and p260 3 ibid 4 Table 1.1 2010 General Election: all seats by majority The seat ranked 1 has the lowest majority By- election Party Majority since Rank Constituency MP Elected 1st 2nd Votes % vote 2010 1 Fermanagh and South Tyrone Michelle Gildernew SF IND 4 0.0% 2 Hampstead and Kilburn Glenda Jackson LAB CON 42 0.1% 3 North Warwickshire Daniel Byles CON LAB 54 0.1% 4 Camborne and Redruth George Eustice CON LD 66 0.2% 5 Bolton West Julie Hilling LAB CON 92 0.2% 5 Thurrock Jackie Doyle-Price CON LAB 92 0.2% 7 Oldham East and Saddleworth Phil Woolas LAB LD 103 0.2% LAB 8 Hendon Matthew Offord CON LAB 106 0.2% 9 Sheffield Central Paul Blomfield LAB LD 165 0.4% 10 Solihull Lorely Burt LD CON 175 0.3% 11 Oxford West and Abingdon Nicola Blackwood CON LD 176 0.3% 12 Ashfield Gloria De Piero LAB LD 192 0.4% 12 Southampton, Itchen John Denham LAB CON 192 0.4% 14 Cardiff North Jonathan Evans CON LAB 194 0.4% 15 Sherwood Mark Spencer CON LAB 214 0.4% 16 Mid Dorset and North Poole Annette Brooke LD CON 269 0.6% 17 Norwich South Simon Wright LD LAB 310 0.7% 18 Edinburgh South Ian Murray LAB LD 316 0.7% 19 Stockton South James Wharton CON LAB 332 0.7% 20 Lancaster and Fleetwood Eric Ollerenshaw CON LAB 333 0.8% 21 Bradford East David Ward LD LAB 365 0.9% 22 Broxtowe Anna Soubry CON LAB 389 0.7% 23 Truro and Falmouth Sarah Newton CON LD 435 0.9% 24 Swansea West Geraint Davies LAB LD 504 1.4% 25 Newton Abbot Anne Morris CON LD 523 1.1% 26 Wirral South Alison McGovern LAB CON 531 1.3% 27 Amber Valley Nigel Mills CON LAB 536 1.2% 28 Chesterfield Toby Perkins LAB LD 549 1.2% 29 Derby North Chris Williamson LAB CON 613 1.4% 30 Kingston upon Hull North Diana Johnson LAB LD 641 1.9% 31 Dudley North Ian Austin LAB CON 649 1.7% 32 Wolverhampton South West Paul Uppal CON LAB 691 1.7% 33 Great Grimsby Austin Mitchell LAB CON 714 2.2% 34 Waveney Peter Aldous CON LAB 769 1.5% 35 Wells Tessa Munt LD CON 800 1.4% 36 Carlisle John Stevenson CON LAB 853 2.0% 37 Morecambe and Lunesdale David Morris CON LAB 866 2.0% 38 Rochdale Simon Danczuk LAB LD 889 1.9% 39 Telford David Wright LAB CON 978 2.4% 40 Walsall North David Winnick LAB CON 990 2.7% 41 Weaver Vale Graham Evans CON LAB 991 2.3% 42 Harrogate and Knaresborough Andrew Jones CON LD 1,039 2.0% 43 Lincoln Karl McCartney CON LAB 1,058 2.3% 44 Morley and Outwood Ed Balls LAB CON 1,101 2.3% 45 Plymouth, Sutton and Devonport Oliver Colvile CON LAB 1,149 2.6% 46 South Antrim William McCrea DUP UCU 1,183 3.5% 47 Montgomeryshire Glyn Davies CON LD 1,184 3.5% 48 Brighton, Pavilion Caroline Lucas Green LAB 1,252 2.4% 49 Birmingham, Edgbaston Gisela Stuart LAB CON 1,274 3.1% 50 Stroud Neil Carmichael CON LAB 1,299 2.2% 51 St Austell and Newquay Stephen Gilbert LD CON 1,312 2.8% 52 Brighton, Kemptown Simon Kirby CON LAB 1,328 3.1% 53 Brent Central Sarah Teather LD LAB 1,345 3.0% 54 Bedford Richard Fuller CON LAB 1,353 3.0% 55 Watford Richard Harrington CON LD 1,425 2.6% 56 Arfon Hywel Williams PC LAB 1,455 5.6% 5 By- election Party Majority since Rank Constituency MP Elected 1st 2nd Votes % vote 2010 57 Halifax Linda Riordan LAB CON 1,472 3.4% 58 Dewsbury Simon Reevell CON LAB 1,526 2.8% 59 Belfast East Naomi Long Alliance DUP 1,533 4.4% 60 Newcastle-under-Lyme Paul Farrelly LAB CON 1,552 3.6% 61 Warrington South David Mowat CON LAB 1,553 2.8% 62 Plymouth, Moor View Alison Seabeck LAB CON 1,588 3.8% 63 Sutton and Cheam Paul Burstow LD CON 1,608 3.3% 64 Wakefield Mary Creagh LAB CON 1,613 3.6% 65 Newport East Jessica Morden LAB LD 1,650 4.8% 66 Pudsey Stuart Andrew CON LAB 1,659 3.4% 67 Eltham Clive Efford LAB CON 1,663 4.0% 68 Middlesbrough South and East Cleveland Tom Blenkinsop LAB CON 1,677 3.6% 69 Enfield North Nick de Bois CON LAB 1,692 3.8% 70 St Ives Andrew George LD CON 1,719 3.7% 71 Edinburgh North

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