COMPREHENSIVE HOUSING MARKET ANALYSIS Port St. Lucie, Florida

U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development Office of Policy Development and Research As of January 1, 2016

Summary

Housing Market Area Economy 27,000 other vacant units likely will During 2015, economic growth con­ reenter the market and satisfy some of tinued in the Port St. Lucie HMA for the demand. the fifth consecutive year, although at a slower pace, with nonfarm payrolls Rental Market increasing by 4,300 jobs, or 3.3 percent, Osceola Overall rental housing market condi- Indian River from the previous year to 135,600 jobs, Atlantic tions are currently slightly soft in the Ocean following an increase of 5,300 jobs, or HMA, with an estimated vacancy rate 4.2 percent, during 2014. The wholesale of 9.3 percent, down from 14.7 percent Highlands Okeechobee St. Lucie and retail trade sector is the largest in April 2010. Apartment market employment sector in the HMA, ac­ con ­ditions are tight, with a vacancy rate counting for approximately 19 percent of 3.2 percent during the fourth quarter Martin Glades of all jobs. During the next 3 years, of 2015, down from 3.8 percent during nonfarm payrolls are expected to the fourth quarter of 2014 (Axiometrics

Palm Beach increase by an average of 5,025 jobs, Inc.). During the next 3 years, demand Hendry or 3.7 percent, annually. is expected for 2,325 market-rate rental The Port St. Lucie Housing Market units (Table 1). The 290 units currently Area (HMA), which is coterminous Sales Market under construction will satisfy some of with the Port St. Lucie, FL Metropolitan Sales housing market conditions in the this demand. Statistical Area (MSA), consists of Martin HMA are balanced, with an estimated Table 1. Housing Demand in the and St. Lucie Counties. The Port St. vacancy rate of 2.2 percent, down from Port St. Lucie HMA During Lucie HMA, part of the Treasure Coast 4.2 percent in April 2010. During 2015, the Forecast Period region on the southern Atlantic Coast new and existing home sales (includ- Port St. Lucie HMA of Florida, is approximately 60 miles ing single-family homes, townhomes, Sales Rental north of West Palm Beach. The HMA and condominiums) increased less Units Units is home to PGA Village-St. Lucie, a than 1 percent from the previous year Total demand 6,075 2,325 54-hole golf resort, and Tradition Field, and the average sales price increased Under construction 520 290 the spring training facility for the New 13 percent (CoreLogic, Inc., with Notes: Total demand represents ­estimated York Mets Major League Baseball team. adjustments by the analyst). During production necessary to achieve a ­balanced market at the end of the forecast period. the 3-year forecast period, demand is Units under construction as of January 1, 2016. A portion of the estimated 27,000 expected for approximately 6,075 new other vacant units in the HMA will likely homes in the HMA (Table 1). The 520 satisfy some of the forecast demand. Sales Market Details demand includes an estimated demand for Economic Conditions...... 2 homes currently under construction 45 mobile homes. The forecast period is will meet a portion of this demand. In January 1, 2016, to January 1, 2019. Population and Households...... 5 addition, a portion of the estimated Source: Estimates by analyst Housing Market Trends...... 7 Data Profile...... 11 Port St. Lucie, FL • COMPREHENSIVE HOUSING MARKET ANALYSIS 2 Table 2. Source: U.S.Bureau ofLaborStatistics averages through December2014and 2015. Notes: Numbers may notaddtototalsbecauseof rounding.Basedon12-month Total nonfarmpayroll jobs Service-providing sectors Goods-producing sectors Government Other services Leisure &hospitality Education &healthservices Professional &businessservices Financial activities Information Transportation &utilities Wholesale &retail trade Manufacturing Mining, logging,&construction Economic Conditions 12-MonthAverage NonfarmPayroll Jobsinthe HMA, bySector December 117,300 131,300 18,700 16,900 23,000 16,000 24,900 14,100 2014 12 MonthsEnding 7,100 5,300 1,400 4,100 6,000 8,100 than 18,000residences, 8.2million community formore thatispermitted Tradition, an8,200-acre master-planned 1,400 jobs, or6.4percent,annually. period, increasingbyanaverage of growth duringthe2001-through-2005 thejob accounted for26percentof The wholesaleandretailtradesector 8,300jobs, or6.9percent,in2005. of annually, reachingpeakannual growth 5,300jobs, an average or4.7percent, of payrolls2005, nonfarm increasedby the localeconomy. From 2001through job lossesthatsignificantly impacted annual since 2011,following 3years of E of substantialjoblossbeganinthe of producing sectors. In2008, aperiod that beganprimarily inthegoods- joblosses percent, in2007asaresultof and plummetedto400jobs, or0.3 2006, to5,700jobs, or4.4percent, period. Job growth began toslow in subsectorsduringthis construction to jobgainsintheretailtradeand County in2003,whichcontributed opened itsfirstphaseinSt.Lucie 940 hotelrooms, and a300-bedhospital, officeandretailspace, square feetof St. LucieHMAhave improved conomic conditionsinthePort December 121,500 135,600 18,700 17,600 24,300 16,700 25,800 14,000 2015 7,600 5,300 1,400 4,200 5,700 8,300

Absolute Change 1,300 4,200 4,300 – 300 – 100 Port St.Lucie 500 700 700 100 900 200 0 0 0 Change Percent – 5.0 – 0.7 0.0 7.0 4.1 5.7 4.4 0.0 0.0 2.4 3.6 3.6 2.5 3.3

this period, with the greatest averagethis period,withthegreatest growth during for nearly 88percentof sectorsaccounted service-providing or 1.9percent,annually. Growth inthe 2,400jobs,increased byanaverage of payrolls2011 through2014nonfarm began toimprove in2011,andfrom 17.3 percent,annually. Theeconomy 2,000jobs,clining byanaverage or of in theHMAduringthisperiod,de jobs numbersector lostthegreatest of mining, logging, andconstruction thehousingcrisis, the As aresultof 4,500 jobs, or3.5percent,annually. payrolls declinedbyanaverage of cession, andfrom2008through2010 HMA, partly duetothenationalre­ 24,300 jobs. This sectorwas theonly percent, fromthe previous year, to year, increasing by1,300jobs, or5.7 sector ledjobgrowth during thepast The educationandhealthservices sectors.in theservice-providing past year was attributedtoincreases payrollnonfarm growth duringthe 2010 (Figure1).Virtually allthe 12.7percentin 2014 andapeakof 6.0 percent,from7.3percentduring continued todecline, toanaverage of (Table 2).Theunemployment rate the previous year, to135,600jobs by 4,300jobs, or3.3percent,from levels. payrolls Nonfarm increased levels prerecession peak surpassed and, forthefirstyear, employment continued tostrengthenintheHMA During 2015,economicconditions Port St.Lucie. centers inthecityof they would add1,650jobs attheircall management company, announced Communications Group, acustomer a homeshoppingnetwork, andAegis during thisperiod.In2013,QVC, Inc., callcenterscontributedtogrowth of sector.ness services Theexpansion percent, intheprofessionalandbusi­ 1,000 jobs, or7.0 annual increaseof - Port St. Lucie, FL • COMPREHENSIVE HOUSING MARKET ANALYSIS 3 Source: U.S.Bureau ofLabor Statistics Note: Current isbasedon12-month averages through December 2015. Figure 2. – 30 Economic Conditions – 20 – SectorGrowthinthe – 10 0

Continued Port St.LucieHMA 10 because increased services havebecause increasedservices been one toaddjobsevery year since2001, Source: U.S.BureauofLaborStatistics Note: The2015annualestimateincludespreliminarydata. System, has started its$110million System, hasstarted Health theMartin of which ispart (Table 3).Tradition MedicalCenter, System, withnearly 2,800employees the largest employer, Health Martin sector,and healthservices including in theHMAareeducation thefive largest companies Three of date.growth from2000tothecurrent shows thepercentage change insector population intheHMA.Figure2 therisingretiree needed tosupport Figure 1. Labor force and 20 resident employment 120,000 140,000 160,000 180,000 200,000 220,000 ment Rateinthe Trends inLaborForce,ResidentEmployment,andUnemploy 30 Labor force 2000 , PercentageChange,2000toCurrent 2001

40 2002

2003

2004 50 Port St.LucieHMA, 2005 Resident employment

2006 60 2007

2008 to thehospitalanddoublenumber expansion thatwilladdthreestories percent, to25,800jobs. Theretail sector increasedby900jobs, or3.6 the pastyear (Figure3).In2015,the added thesecondmostjobsduring payrollsnonfarm inthe HMAand all for approximately 19percentof wholesale andretailtrade, accounts The largest employment sector, completion datein2018. jobs willbeaddedbytheexpected patientrooms. Approximately 500 of

70 2009

2010 Total nonfarmpayroll jobs 2011 2000Through2015 Service-providing sectors Goods-producing sectors Education &healthservices Professional &businessservices Financial activities Transportation &utilities Manufacturing Government Other services Leisure &hospitality Wholesale &retail trade Mining, logging,&construction Information 2012

2013 Unemployment rate

2014

2015 10.0 12.0 14.0 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0

Unemployment rate - Port St. Lucie, FL • COMPREHENSIVE HOUSING MARKET ANALYSIS 4 Economic Conditions

Continued HMA annually, contributingtothe people tothe bring thousandsof andTradition resort, Fieldboth golf America-owned-and-operated of Professional Golfers’Association PGA Village-St. Lucie, the only 4.1 and4.4percent,respectively. jobs duringthepastyear, increasing sectorsbothadded700 services and theprofessionalbusiness time jobs. Theleisureandhospitality is expected toadd95full- andpart- Port St.Luciethat 2016 inthecityof Market isscheduledtoopeninMarch Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. Neighborhood in theHMAsinceitsopening. Anew retail added 4.9millionsquarefeetof because theTradition community has jobsinthissectorpart percent of trade subsectoraccountsfornearly 81 Figure 3. Source: U.S.BureauofLaborStatistics Note: Basedon12-monthaveragesthroughDecember2015. Source: Moody’sSource: Analytics Note: Excludeslocalschooldistricts. Table 3. PNC FinancialServicesGroup, Inc. QVC, Inc. St. LucieMedicalCenter-HCA Indian RiverStateCollege Florida Power&LightCompany Publix SuperMarketsInc. Lawnwood RegionalMedicalCenter Liberty Medical,LLC Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. Martin HealthSystem Leisure &hospitality13.0% Education &healthservices17.9%

Name ofEmployer Major Employersinthe

by Sector Current NonfarmPayroll Jobsinthe Other services5.6% Government 13.8% Government Port St.Lucie Financial activities Information Education &healthservices Government Transportation &utilities Wholesale &retail trade Education &healthservices Education &healthservices Wholesale &retail trade Education &healthservices Mining, logging,&construction6.1% Nonfarm Payroll Sector and securityshutters, announced hurricane Inc., amanufacturer of ShutterServices since 2009.Expert marking thefirstdeclineinthis sector 5.0 percent,from2014,to5,700 jobs, sector, whichdeclinedby300jobs, or the pastyear was themanufacturing The only sector tolosejobsduring capacity withinthenext 18months. hired afterthecallcenterreachesfull 700 employees couldpotentially be within thenext 6to8months, and to 100moreareexpected tobehired ployees have already beenhired,80 in May 2016.Approximately 30em Port St.Lucie call centerinthecityof facility,patient services isopeninga sector. McKesson anew Corporation, growth intheleisureandhospitality Professional &businessservices12.4% Manufacturing 4.2% Financial activities3.9% HMA Port St.LucieHMA Information 1.0% Wholesale &retail trade19.1% Transportation &utilities3.1% Employees Number of 1,037 1,038 1,240 1,500 1,670 2,000 2,783 ,

699 826 850

-

Port St. Lucie, FL • COMPREHENSIVE HOUSING MARKET ANALYSIS 5 Economic Conditions Population andHouseholds estimates byanalyst Sources: 2000and 2010—2000Censusand2010Census; currentandforecast— Notes: Thecurrent dateisJanuary1,2016.The forecast dateisJanuary1,2019. Figure 4. Average annual change – 2,000 10,000 12,000 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 0

HMA, Components ofPopulationChangeinthe 2000 to2010 2000toForecast

Continued Net naturalchange location of theHMAanditsrelative location of in St.LucieCounty. Thecoastal thetotalpopulationresides percent of St. LucieCounty. Approximately 66 which73percentwas in (Figure 4),of has averaged 2,800peopleannually which been fromnetin-migration, growth intheHMAsince2010has an­ 2,675,or0.6percent, increase of Port St.LucieHMAis440,000,an A the 3-year forecastperiodwiththe continue toleadjobgrowth during sectorisexpected to health services to 150,300jobs. Theeducationand 5,025 jobs, or3.7percent,annually, the next 3years, averaging growth of increase consistently duringeachof payrollsNonfarm areexpected to the next several years. to add10jobsitsworkforce during estimated 30employees, isexpected The company, which currently hasan Port St.Lucie. facility inthecityof in June 2015planstobuildanew 2010 tocurrent nually since2010.Allthepopulation estimated population of the estimated populationof January 1,2016,the s of Net migration Current toforecast Port St. Lucie Port St.Lucie

business services sector.business services the joblossesinprofessionaland Lucie, whichwillhelpoffsetsomeof Port St. to itscallcenterinthecityof announced thatitwould add500jobs provider,USA, acustomerservices In August 2015,Teleperformance Port St.LucieinMarch2016. city of its 800-employee callcenterinthe QVC announcedthatitwould close expected toslow, however, because sectoris sional andbusinessservices Medical Center. Growth intheprofes continued expansion atTradition annually accountedfor nearly 99 12,300 people of Net in-migration July 1). by theanalyst, estimatesasof Business Research, withadjustments Economic and annually (Bureauof ing 12,450people, or3.5percent, population growth was strong, averag rapideconomicexpansion, a timeof the 2000s. From 2000to2007,during during from thegrowth thatoccurred 2010 hasbeenasignificantcontrast The slow populationgrowth since 5-year estimates). Economic andBusinessResearch, annually, since2010(Bureauof 2.9percent population, anaverage of significantly fasterthanthetotal The elderly populationhasincreased ages 65andolderhasincreased. resi­­­­­since 2010 as the population of in theHMAhasdeclinedannually minus(resident births residentdeaths) result, theaverage netnaturalchange retirement destinationformany. Asa boring MSAsmakesitanattractive affordability comparedwithneigh­

dents dents - - Port St. Lucie, FL • COMPREHENSIVE HOUSING MARKET ANALYSIS 6 Population andHouseholds Sources: 2000and2010—2000Census2010Census;current—estimates byanalyst Note: Thecurrent dateisJanuary 1,2016. Sources: 2000and2010—Bureau of EconomicBusinessResearch;currentand Notes: ThecurrentdateisJanuary1,2016.forecast January1,2019. Figure 6. forecast—estimates byanalyst Figure 5. Average annual change 100,000 120,000 140,000 10,000 12,000 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 0 0

Population andHouseholdGrowth inthe HMA, HMA, Number ofHouseholdsbyTenureinthe 2000 to2010 2000toForecast

2000 toCurrent 2000

Population Continued Renter has tapered.Duringthenext 3years, Tradition levels andtherapidgrowth of growth remainsbelow prerecession slowed further, becausejob inpart has since2010,populationgrowth turn rebounded fromtheeconomicdown population growth. AstheHMAhas accountingforallthe in-migration or 1.1percent,annually, withnet slowed 4,775people, toanaverage of economic decline, populationgrowth From 2007to2010,theperiodof population growth duringthistime. Tradition contributedtotherapid this period.Thedevelopment of populationgrowth during percent of 2010 tocurrent 2010 Owner Households Port St.Lucie Port St. Lucie Port St.Lucie Current toforecast Current - The homeownership rateintheHMA date.for 2000,2010,andthecurrent householdsbytenure intheHMA of higher. Figure5illustratesthenumber 2010, whenpopulationgrowth was 4,025,or2.7percent,from2000to of since 2010comparedwithanincrease 2,150,or1.2percent, an increaseof households are currently in the HMA, since 2010.Anestimated184,750 populationgrowth the low rateof holds intheHMAhasbeenslowed by house The growth inthenumber of 0.8 percent,annually. 3,625 people, or population growth of expected tocontributeanincreased increased economicexpansion is 2000 totheforecastdate. household growth intheHMAfrom Figure 6shows populationand population growth increasesslightly. conditions strengthenandtherateof 2,525, or1.3percent,aseconomic expected toincreaseby anaverage of householdsis period, thenumber of the period.During3-year forecast householdgrowth during percent of 2000 to2010andaccountedfor36 increased 4.2percentannually from renterhouseholds son, thenumber of Bycompari thisreport). at theendof growth duringtheperiod(Table DP-1 household ing for nearly 79 percent of 52,150,account estimateof current 3.6 percentannually from2010toa households increasedanaverageof renter home increases. Thenumber of preference torentratherthanbuya the as 71.8percent, rateof a current decline hasacceleratedsince2010,to 75.4 percentin2010;however, the declined from78.8percentin2000to - - - Port St. Lucie, FL • COMPREHENSIVE HOUSING MARKET ANALYSIS 7 Housing Market TrendsHousing 2015, sales of existing homes(includ 2015, salesof less thantheamountowed. During entering foreclosureorbeingsoldfor sales)becausefewershort homesare (real estateowned [REO]salesand decreasing distressedhomesales home salesand,atthesametime, significantly increasingtraditional demand fornew andexisting homes, growth hascontributedtoincreased in April2010.Strongeconomic percent, adeclinefrom4.2percent 2.2 with anestimatedvacancy rateof the Port St.LucieHMAarebalanced, Sales housingmarketconditionsin Sales Market and declined an average of 7percent and declinedan average of price peakedat$252,300in2006 increase from2014.Theaverage sales past year, to$205,400,an8-percent sales priceincreasedduringthe demand, theaverage existing home increasing sold peryear. Asaresultof annually andaveraged 7,200homes sales increasednearly 16percent From 2009through2014,home crisis andslower householdgrowth. levels due, tothehousing inpart, remained below theprevious high slightly in2009,althoughsaleslevels 2008. Homesalesbegantoincrease 5,075homessoldin reaching alow of they continued todeclineannually, declined nearly 50percent,and became morerestrictive, homesales slow lendingstandards andmortgage ally. In2006,asjobgrowth beganto averaging 21,500homessoldannu strongjobgrowth, during aperiodof were highfrom2000through2005, by theanalyst). Existinghomesales (CoreLogic, Inc., withadjustments or 13percent,fromtheprevious year 1,300homes, 11,150, anincreaseof and condominiums)totalednearly ing single-family homes, townhomes, - - for nearly 17 percent of homes sold for nearly 17percentof analyst). Distressedsalesaccounted Logic, Inc., withadjustmentsbythe distressed salesduring2014(Core a 34-percentdeclinefromthe3,800 tressed homesalesdeclinedto2,525, dis During 2015,thenumber of to strengthening economic conditions. have slowed significantly inresponse Distressed homesalesintheHMA 2014. percent annually 5 from2008through in 2012andincreasedanaverage of $166,400. Pricesbegantorebound to annually from2007through2011, REO status. delinquent orhad transitionedinto allhomeloanswere seriously of 2010,when 21.3percent February seriously delinquentloans peakedin 5.3-percent staterate. Therateof 2014. Thisrateislower thanthe down from7.7percentinDecember had transitionedintoREOstatus, days delinquentorinforeclosure) were seriously delinquent(90 ormore homeloansinHMA 4.7 percentof December2015, through 2014.Asof sales increased15percentfrom2009 in 2009.Pricesfordistressedhome $108,700 before decliningtoalow of sales prices averaged $196,500 in 2006 from theprevious year. Distressed was $145,900in2015,up16percent adistressedsale The average priceof annually from2009through2014. 4,100homessold with anaverage of levels have since2009, fluctuated distressed. Distressedhomesales 2009, when5,300homesaleswere allsales, beforepeakingin percent of through 2008,accountingfor16 averaged 1,225annually from 2006 the previous year. Distressedsales in 2015,down from 26percentduring - - Port St. Lucie, FL • COMPREHENSIVE HOUSING MARKET ANALYSIS 8 Sources: U.S.Census Bureau,BuildingPermitsSurvey; estimatesbyanalyst Notes: Includestownhomes. Currentincludesdata throughDecember2015. Figure 7. 10,000 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 9,000 Sales Market Market TrendsHousing 0

Single-Family HomesPermittedinthe 2000 2000 toCurrent

2001 Continued

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006 of 430homessoldin2011before of year. New homesalesreachedalow 2011, averaging 1,950homessolda percent annually from2006through in jobgrowth anddeclinednearly 16 slightly in2006withtheslowdown sold in2005.Salesbegantodecline 3,925 peryear, peakingat7,050homes from 2000through2005andaveraged New homesalesincreasedannually or 12percent,fromtheprevious year. 1,025 during2015,upby110homes, homes, andcondominiums)totaled (in­ new homessold The number of HMA increasedduringthepastyear. New homesalesinthePort St.Lucie 2007 10percentannuallyaverage from of through 2010beforeincreasingan 11percentannually from2008 of $312,900. Pricesdeclinedanaverage the average new home salespricewas previous in2007,when peakoccurred new homesalespricesince2000.The from 2014andthehighestaverage $317,000 in2015,a7-percentincrease average new homesalespricewas aging 700homessoldeachyear. The home salesincreasedannually, aver HMA. From 2012through2014,new growth increasedsignificantly inthe beginning toincreasein2012asjob cluding single-family homes, town­ 2008

2009

2010 Port St.LucieHMA,

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

- at morethan9,100homes, asthe Permitting reachedapeakin2005, to strongjobgrowth (Figure7). by 27percentannually inresponse single-family homebuildingincreased data). From 2000through2005, or 5percent,from2014(preliminary 1,100 single-family homes, up50homes, were2015, permits issuedfornearly duringthepastyear.permitted, During single-family homes by thenumber of homebuilding activity, asmeasured sales byexpanding single-family Builders respondedtoincreasinghome downturn. began toreboundfromtheeconomic 2011 through2014,astheeconomy expected foranestimated6,075new During thenext 3years, demandis available forpurchase. still partially undeveloped, withlots single-family homeneighbor­ completely builtout.Theremaining whichhavedevelopment, been 4of rental 1 in­cluding neighborhoods, 11 Traditionexpected inspring2016. has $199,990 to$398,355.Completion is single-family homespricedfrom five-bedroom and has three-,four-, 358-home subdivision The Lucie. St. Port inthecityof under construction nually. Veranda Gardensiscurrently improved, averaging 1,050homesan in 2013and2014astheeconomy Homebuilding activity increased 2012, averaging 540homesannually. and remainedlow from2008through 64 percentin2007,to2,000homes, the previous year. Permitting declined 2006, down nearly 39percentfrom slowedpermitting to5,575homesin Lucie HMA.Asjobgrowth slowed, St. Port $16 million the in damage in hit 3weeks in2004 apart and caused ricanes Frances andJeanne, which HMA begantorebuildfromHur hoods are are hoods - -

Port St. Lucie, FL • COMPREHENSIVE HOUSING MARKET ANALYSIS 9 Table 4. Sales Market Market TrendsHousing analyst Sources: 2000and 2010—2000Censusand2010Census; current—estimatesby Note: Thecurrent dateisJanuary1,2016. Figure 8. Source: Estimatesbyanalyst from thistable. demand. Demandfor45mobilehomesduringtheforecastperiodisexcluded ed 27,000othervacantunitsintheHMA willlikelysatisfysomeofthe forecast Notes: The520homescurrentlyunderconstructionandaportionoftheestimat 10.0 12.0 14.0 16.0 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 500,000 400,000 350,000 300,000 250,000 200,000 170,000 From

Estimated DemandforNewMarket-RateSalesHousing in thePortSt.LucieHMA

2000 toCurrent Rental Vacancy Ratesinthe Price Range($) Continued The forecastperiod isJanuary 1,2016,toJanuary 1,2019. 2000 10.9 and higher 499,999 399,999 349,999 299,999 249,999 199,999 To rates. Strict lending standards initiated resulting inelevated rentalvacancy occupancy,intended forlong-term are seasonalhousingunitsandnot misclassified asvacant becausethey theHMA,manyrentalunitsare of (Figure 8).Duetotheseasonalnature down from14.7percentinApril2010 9.3percent, overall vacancy rateof St. LucieHMA,withanestimated are currently slightly softinthePort Rental housingmarketconditions Rental Market County. Demandisexpected tobe ing 33percentexpected inMartin in St.LucieCounty, withtheremain thisdemandisexpected 67 percentof homes intheHMA(Table 1).Nearly During theForecast Period 2010 Demand 14.7 Units of Port St.LucieHMA, 1,200 1,500 1,500 300 300 600 600 Percent of Total 10.0 10.0 20.0 25.0 25.0 Current 5.0 5.0 9.3

- - the absorption of thehomescurrently of the absorption second andthirdyears toallow for production shouldincreaseduringthe the3-year forecastperiod,and year of should comeonlineduringthefirst new homes proximately 20percentof thedemand.Ap will satisfysomeof HMA thatmay reenterthemarket the 27,000othervacant unitsinthe of andaportion under construction price range. The520homescurrently mand formarket-ratesales housing by sales. Table 4shows theestimatedde to attractretirees, increasinghome theHMAisexpected tocontinue of price range. Therelative affordability inthe$170,000-to-$249,000 greatest During 2015,approximately 320 well below theprerecessionlevel. increased rentaldemandbutremains ing thepast3years asaresponse to family pickedupdur unitspermitted, multi­ measured bythenumber of activity,Multifamily construction as from theprevious year. asking rentwas $1,020,up6percent 2010 (AxiometricsInc.). Theaverage of percent duringthefirstquarter 2014anddown from13.8 of quarter from 3.8percentduringthefourth vacancy ratewas 3.2 percent,down 2015, the apartment of quarter fourth the new supply onthemarket.Asof outpacing demand tight asaresultof areconditions intheHMA currently ­ rental market.Apart the 15 percentof approximately rent. Single-family homescomprise rates andincreasingtheaverage the past5years, decreasingvacancy the demandforrentalunitsduring after thehousingcrisisincreased under construction. ment market ment market - - - Port St. Lucie, FL • COMPREHENSIVE HOUSING MARKET ANALYSIS 10 Sources: U.S.CensusBureau,BuildingPermitsSurvey;estimates byanalyst Notes: Excludestownhomes.CurrentincludesdatathroughDecember 2015. Figure 9. 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800 200 400 600 800 Rental Market Market TrendsHousing 0

Multifamily UnitsPermittedinthe 2000 2000 toCurrent

2001 Continued 2002

2003

2004

2005

2006 annually from2006through2012. 340unitswere average permitted of year tolessthan60unitsin2012;an cantly anddeclinedeachsubsequent year asjobgrowth declinedsignifi 50 percentin2006fromtheprevious percent annually. Permitting dropped multifamily increased14 construction 2007. From 2000through2005, from2000through ily construction multifam approximately 5percentof units. Condominiumsaccountedfor past 8years was forcondominium multifamily duringthe construction allnew data). Lessthan1percentof or 8percent,from2014(preliminary units were down permitted, 30units, 2007 date.2000 tothecurrent multifamily from unitspermitted of 2014. Figure9shows thenumber annuallyunits permitted in2013and in2012andaveragedreported 330 to morethanfive timesthelevel activity spikedin2013 construction markettightened, As theapartment

2008

2009 Port St.LucieHMA,

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015 - - eight properties with 830 apartments with830apartments eight properties the rentalmarket.Approximately retiree populationishasalsoaffected not yet beenreleased.Thegrowing 2016. Proposedaskingrentshave units scheduledtobecompleteinJune one-, two-, three-,andfour-bedroom St. Lucie. willconsistof Theproperty Port inthecityof under construction Grove Parkarecurrently Apartments $1,594, respectively. The210-unit at$1,134,$1,364,and units starting has one-,two-, andthree-bedroom Port St.Lucie. The252-unitcomplex completed inApril2015thecityof rental neighborhoodinTradition, was The AtlanticatTradition, theone and number of bedrooms. and number of shows theestimateddemandbyrent Tableunits underconstruction. 5 thecurrent of to allow forabsorption theforecastperiod and thirdyears of increase gradually duringthesecond the firstyear, andproductionshould units shouldcomeonlineduring thenew Approximately 20percentof thedemand. tion willsatisfysomeof The 290unitscurrently underconstruc County.percent expected inMartin Lucie County, withtheremaining48 thisdemandisexpected inSt. of (Table 1).Anestimated52percent market-rate rentalunitsintheHMA demand isexpected for2,325new During the3-year forecastperiod, planning intheHMA. or are currently underconstruction or assisted-living unitsforseniors - Port St. Lucie, FL • COMPREHENSIVE HOUSING MARKET ANALYSIS 11 Data Profile Rental Market Market TrendsHousing Sources: U.S.CensusBureau;DepartmentofHousingandUrban Development;estimatesbyanalyst January 1,2016. and the12monthsthroughDecember2015.MedianFamilyIncomes arefor1999,2009,and2014.Thecurrentdateis Notes: Numbersmaynotaddtototalsbecauseofrounding.Employment datarepresentannualaveragesfor2000,2010, Table DP-1. Table 5. Source: Estimatesbyanalyst 2016, toJanury1,2019. 290 unitscurrentlyunderconstructionwilllikelysatisfysomeoftheestimateddemand.TheforecastperiodisJanury1, Notes: Numbersmaynotaddtototalsbecauseofrounding.Monthlyrentdoesincludeutilitiesorconcessions.The Median FamilyIncome Rental vacancyrate Owner vacancyrate Total housingunits Percent renter Renter households Percent owner Owner households Total households Total population Nonfarm payroll jobs Unemployment rate Total resident employment Monthly Gross Total 1,900 ormore 1,700 to1,899 1,500 to1,699 1,300 to1,499 1,100 to1,299 Continued Rent ($)

Estimated DemandforNewMarket-RateRentalHousinginthePortSt.LucieHMA the ForecastPeriod One Bedroom Port St.LucieHMA

Demand Units of 810 190 190 110 110 210

$47,500 156,733 104,166 132,221 321,237 102,600 136,376 28,055 10.9% 21.2% 78.8% 2000 DataProfile, 2000toCurrent 2.3% 5.1% Monthly Gross Total 1,600 ormore 1,400 to1,599 1,200 to1,399 Rent ($) Two Bedrooms $59,600 215,160 129,962 172,422 424,677 121,600 170,447 42,460 14.7% 24.6% 75.4% 12.7% 2010 4.2%

Demand Units of 1,175 280 580 300 $56,900 220,100 132,600 184,750 440,000 135,600 186,700 Current 52,150 28.2% 71.8% 9.3% 2.2% 6.0%

Monthly Gross 2000 to2010 Total 1,900 ormore 1,700 to1,899 1,500 to1,699 1,300 to1,499 Three orMore Bedrooms Average AnnualChange(%) Rent ($) 2.3 3.2 4.2 2.2 2.7 2.8 1.7 2.3

2010 toCurrent Demand – 0.9 Units of 0.4 3.6 0.4 1.2 0.6 2.2 1.8 350 130 85 45 90 During

Port St. Lucie, FL • COMPREHENSIVE HOUSING MARKET ANALYSIS 12 not reflected intheresidential buildingpermits.not reflected are some unitsclassifiedascommercialstructures For buildingpermit. example, a differenttypeof orareissued or createdwithoutabuildingpermit occurs inanHMA.Someunitsareconstructed sarily allresidentialbuildingactivity that reflect Building Permits: donotneces­ Buildingpermits Census Bureau. specifiedas“other”vacantthe category bythe workers;or occasionaluse;usedbymigrant and but notoccupied;heldforseasonal,recreational, thereforeincludes unitsrentedorsold The term units thatarenotavailable forsaleorrent. analysis, othervacant unitsincludeallvacant Housing andUrbanDevelopment’s (HUD’s) Other Vacant Units:IntheU.S. of Department the development pipeline. orunitsin for unitscurrently underconstruction excess vacancies. Theestimatesdonotaccount theanalysis, growth, losses, and dateof the as-of the3-year forecastperiodgiven conditionson of needed toachieve abalancedmarketattheend thetotalhousingproduction the estimatesof buildingactivity.are notaforecastof Theyare Demand: Thedemandestimatesintheanalysis 28,2013. the OMBBulletindatedFebruary Management andBudget (OMB)in the Officeof isbasedon thedelineationsestablishedby report The metropolitanstatisticalareadefinitioninthis Forecast period:1/1/2016–1/1/2019—Analyst’s date:1/1/2016—Analyst’sCurrent estimates 2010: 4/1/2010—U.S. Decennial Census 2000: 4/1/2000—U.S. Decennial Census Data DefinitionsandSources estimates huduser.gov/portal/ushmc/chma_archive.html For onothermarketareas, additionalreports please goto Robyn E.Bowen, Economist Contact Information CMARtables_PortStLucieFL_16.pdf for thisHMA,goto For tothehousingmarket additionaldatapertaining single-family andmultifamily buildingpermits. theseestimatesareincludedinthediscussionsof of activity. thisadditionalconstruction Some an estimateof As aresult,theanalyst, throughdiligent fieldwork, makes economic andhousingmarketconditions. officials whoprovided onlocal dataandinformation sourcesandstatelocalgovernment to thoseindustry sequent developments. HUDexpresses itsappreciation As such,findingsorconclusionsmay bemodifiedbysub sources. datefromlocalandnational available ontheas-of ­ aspossible basedoninforma are asthoroughandcurrent and MarketAnalysis Division. Theanalysis and­ guidelines andmethodsdeveloped byHUD’s Economic The factualframework forthisanalysis follows the may beunderconsiderationbytheDepartment. insuranceproposalsthat anymortgage of acceptability regardingthe tomakedeterminations does notpurport housing marketconditionsandtrends. Theanalysis builders, mortgagees, withlocal andothersconcerned tion, findings, andconclusionsmay alsobeusefulto HUDinitsoperations. Thefactualinforma guidance of This analysis fortheassistanceand hasbeen prepared [email protected] 213–534–2714 Los Angeles HUDFieldOffice huduser.gov/publications/pdf/ . .

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