JERk.Y FRUliN PROCEEDINGS

Twenty-third Annual Meeting

Volume XXIII • Number 1 1982

T1k

TRANSPORTATION RESEARCH FORUM OCEEDINGS Twenty-third Annual Meeting

Theme: "Developing Concinnity in Transportation"

October 28-30, 1982 Fairmont Hotel New Orleans, LA

Volume XXI I I • Number 1 1982 XTR TRANSPORTATION RESEARCH FORUM 62 The Future of Railway Electrification and Passenger Operations in North America by I. Lukasietvicz*

SUMMARY length decreased from about 2500 miles to some 1160 miles. Electrification was LECTRIFICATION and passenger abandoned (in the late 1950s and earlY E operations are two issues of par- 1960s) even on lines in heavy freight ticular significance to North American service, as on the Norfolk and Western railways. Except for the U.S. Northeast and the Virginian Railways operations corridor, there are practically no elec- of coal over long grades. On the trified railway operations in the US and N & W each electric per- Canada. Other countries have been en- formed the work formerly accomplished gaged in intensive electrification for by three steam engines (Friedlander, over 30 years; since 1960, 3100 route 1968, pp. 63-64). Today, the Northeast miles per year were being electrified Corridor is the only real example of an world wide. The advantages of electri- operating conventional electrified rail- fication are today generally recognized way in the U.S. over a route length of in North America, but the financing and 300 miles (Washington' -New York-New structure of railway industry are such Haven), to be extended by 1985 to Bos- that electrification is not likely to take ton for a total of 456 miles. place without government intervention. Except for the on-going moderniza- The financial performance of VIA Rail tion of the Northeast Corridor, the onl"", and AMTRAK since 1979 shows con- new electrification projects in the US clusively that operation of obsolete tra- (completed or in progress) concern spe- ditional trains should be discontinued in cial coal-hauling industrial railways. favour of buses and, where conditions The Black Mesa and Lake Powell 78 mile are appropriate, high speed (over 100 line in Arizona, completed in 1974, was mph) trains. Recent Japanese (Shin- the world's first 50 kV, commercial fre- kansen) and French (TGV) experience quency (60 Hz) installation. Another has demonstrated the viability of oper- 50 kV coal railway (35 miles) will be ating in the 130 to 160 mph range. High built in Colorado and Utah (The Des- speed trains are being introduced into erado-Bonanza Western Railway). Earl- the US through application of Japanese ier this year, plans were announced bY technology. So far there has been no the Missouri-Kansas-Texas RR for elec- progress in Canada toward moderniza- trification of its 324 mile main line be- tion of its system of obsolete passenger tween Fort Worth and Houston. trains. In the US, electrified lines represent a negligible fraction of the total route INTRODUCTION mileage of some 200,000 miles. their vol- electrified lines and As for passenger operations, In North America, ume in North America has decreased modern passenger operations are the absence since 1940s to negligible levels, in conspicuous by their virtual 1 to passen- scene. They represent 2 percent range of intercity from the railway ger miles (all modes). The maintenance two issues of particular significance to train railroading. of even this miniscule passenger the North American traffic required continuing escalation of In Canada, electric (as opposed to subsidies, which have reached -truly ex- diesel-electric) traction is used only on horbitant heights, and taking over of a short CN line through the Mount passenger operations by federal govern- Royal tunnel in Montreal and on seven formation of AMTRA1( of an iron line near ments through miles automated -ore in the US in 1971 and VIA Rail in Can' Sept-Iles, Quebec. ada in 1977. As losses continue to rise, In the United States, electrification rail services com- slow and obsolete passenger reached its peak in the 1930s, with offered by AMTRAK and VIA Rail are pletion of 's elec- being gradually curtailed. trified lines between New York and The railway situation, as briefly de- Washington in 1935 and east to Harris- elsewhere burg in 1938. Since then, electrified route scribed above, has no parallel in the world. On the contrary, practi; cally all countries outside of Nortl! *Professor, Faculty of Engineering, America (including the Soviet bloc ana Carleton University, Ottawa, Ontario. the so-called Third World) have been THE FUTURE OF RAILWAY ELECTRIFICATION 63 engaged for over 30 years in intensive ELECTRIFICATION' electrification of the main lines, a ess proc- that is expected to continue into the In North America, next modernization of century at the present rate of about railway traction has been achieved, by 31.00 route miles per year. The world- 1960, through replacement wide of steam loco- growth of electrified route mileage motives with diesel-electrics. This proved hrough 1980 and the projected growth a highly t10r successful innovation, in terms the next 80 years are shown in Fig. of standardization and series production of diesel-electrics, productivity of diesel The past twenty years have seen a operations and abundance of cheap diesel revival of passenger rail in Western fuel. It is not surprising that in these Europe and Japan. Fast modern trains circumstances and lacking experience ,have been developed and introduced in with electric traction, until early 1970s ,nigh traffic density corridors where they the advantages of electrification of high nave successfully competed with the air density traffic lines were not generally and road modes. appreciated by the North American rail- ways. There were, In of course, sporadic ad- both instances (of electrification vocates of electrification before then. In and passenger operations) advantage Was Canada, T. C. Keefer (1821-1914), a re- taken of new European and Japa- markably far-sighted engineer and so- ,nese technologies, superior to the tradi- cial critic, must Lional have been one of the ones still in use in North Ameri- first among them. This is what he had to . The questions to ponder—from the say in an 0r th address to the Royal Society American perspective—are these: of Canada in 1899 (Keefer, 1899; see "111Y technological progress has eluded also Lukasiewicz, 1976, p. 206): IG far the US and Canadian railways? what needs to be done to accelerate I The substitution of electricity for nodernization of North American rail- steam, as the motive power for rail- waYs ? What follows is an attempt to ways, is throw regarded as inevitable some light on these questions as sooner or later on many roads. It they pertain to electrification and pas- has already taken senger place as regards operations. suburban railways, notably in the

ELECTRIFICATION OF WORLD RAILWAYS: PROJECTION OF THE HISTORIC ELECTRIFICATION GROWTH INTO THE 21st CENTURY (RGI, 1980)

FIGURE 1 64 .TRANSPORTATION RESEARCH FORUM

case of the Charlevoix road and. swiftly as dieselisation in the 19505" Hull and Aylmer railway, where wa- (RGI, 1980, p. 41). which has This is still the situation today: al- ter is doing the work on heretofore been done by coal. The though a considerable body of data chief obstacles to an early change electrification has been developed in re- the hun- cent years and technology has prog- on the larger roads are elec- dreds of millions invested in loco- ressed, specific initiatives toward motives, and the very large outlay trification have yet to be taken in North required to equip existing steam America. two roads with the electric system. The At present, there appear to be principal inducement would be the distinct aspects of the electrification owing to the in- sue in the US and Canada. passenger service, concerns creased speed possible,—it being The broad technical aspect stated that, with elec- the evaluation of advantages of electric confidently into tricity, a speed considerably over over diesel-electric traction, taking one hundred miles per hour could account all factors, such as performance. be attained. Moreover there would maintenance, capital and operational be entire abolition of the poisonous costs, savings of oil, etc. The other, and smoke which drops upon the Pull- at present by far the more critical as- any coach pect of electrification relates to the fi' man in preference to the ahead of it. nancing of railways, the structure of railway industry, the roles of the go' While the conversion of trunk ernment and labor. lines would be attended with a cost have prohibitory, Technical merits of electrification which is for the present in the 1-1.; apply to new been extensively explored this objection does not and in the 1970s. Studies oi may be worked inde- Canada lines which electrification have been carried out bY pendently, or in connection with majo arrives some 16 railways, including such electric ones. When the time RR, Southern pa- water power will ones as Union Pacific for such railways, cific Transportation Co. Southern Rail- have a field of usefulness of which Topeka little con- way Co. Santa Fe (Atchison, we can at present form and Santa Fe Railway Co.), Illinois Cen- ception. Water wheels and wires Northern coal docks, the tral Gulf RR and Burlington would displace the In Canada, Canadian vessels, the huge coal (TRB, 1977, p. 13). coal laden Pacific investigated electrification of it5 yards, and the trains required for Vancouver contents over hun- main line from Calgary to distributing their electric in Swit", miles of lines. and tested dreds of zerland and Norway (Fisher, 1971). 1976) the inevitability of 1976, a massive study (CIGGT, Keefer's belief in in Canada was, has been frequently echoed electrification of railways electrification the Canadian Institute 01 last decade. In 1971, G. T. Fisher completed by in the Guided Ground Transport. In October, of the Canadian Pacific, after extensive in Europe, 1981 R. Lawless, president, CN Rai'l testing of electric locomotives is look- "the ultimate question on stated that Canadian National wrote that ing at the possibility of electrification electrification is probably not 'if' but practices. F. (G & M, 1981). Electrification 'when' (Fisher, 1971). In 1974 H. power suP- U.S. with particular reference to Rush, Deputy Administrator of the again in' Administration, stated ply alternatives, were being Federal Railroad team in Nor" in the F.R.A. are convinced vestigated by a Canadian that "we way and Sweden in 1982 (CIGGT. that electrification represents the key rail 1982). to the future for heavy density s operations in this These activities produced numerou freight and passenger electr country" (Rush, 1974). In 1977, T. J. publications on the theme of Recent important references in; Lamphier of Burlington-Northern be- cation. noted lieved "that electrification of heavily elude, in addition to the already main lines is inevitable" CIGGT 1976 study, a 1977 Special Re" used railroad Transportatian (TRB, 1977, p. 10) and W. W. Simpson port No. 180 by the US Research Board (TRB, 1977) and a 1'98 of System noted "that 1980). electrification of heavy-density rail lines study by SRI International (SRI, The technical merits of electrification are in this country will come, but I do not sources. know when" (TRB, 1977, p. 76). Richard discussed in great detail in these of Railway Gazette In- It will suffice to note here that (i) re" Hope, the editor electrical en- ternational, felt in 1980 that "it seems cent technical progress in de- that America will gineering (application of solid state almost inconceivable a; fail to electrify in the 21st century, if vices) has rendered railway electrific And once started, no doubt tion increasingly attractive, in terms 0,t not before. 0" the progress will be accomplished as performance as well as costs, and THE FUTURE OF RAILWAY ELECTRIFICATION 65

those who studied electrification are in ard in North America. For example: general agreement on its benefits as — The introduction of electric trac- compared to diesel-electric operations. tion may affect adversely the flexibility The advantages which are usually now available with exclusively diesel- quoted include: electric operations; — Higher train speeds possible with smaller and less capital expensive electric traction may require upgrading fleet of locomotives to achieve com- of track and increased track maintenance parable service; (given the high axle loads current in — longer life of locomotives; N. America), and changes to signalling; -- higher reliability and availability — In N. America, obsolete work rules of locomotives; result in grossly inflated cost of crew-, — lower maintenance costs of loco- ing trains and hence in operation of low motives; speed, high tonnage trains. This prac- -- lower operating costs (including tice would affect adversely the econom- lower energy costs); ics of electric traction, since it is much overload capability for accelera- more expensive to supply a small num- tion and negotiation of long and/ ber of very high point loads than to or large grades; keep the same tonnage rolling with a --- for high speed passenger trains, larger number of lighter trains; distribution of drive to a maximum — Some have pointed out that down number of axles and use of electro- time caused by accidents (derailments dynamic (regenerative) braking; occur with disconcertingly high frequen- ability to use energy from sources cy in N. America; in Canada—about that do not depend on oil, i.e., sav- once per day) would be longer on ing of oil; elec- -- trified lines, both track and catenary re- lower levels of air pollution; quiet- quiring repairs. Also, re-routing of traf- er operation; fic around ----- increase in line capacity; accident sites would be more — difficult; smaller inventory of materials — The question of adhesion, i.e., of (compared to fuel, lubricants and the tractive effort relative to the load Spare parts for diesels). on the driven axles, has been another While there is qualitative consensus controversial issue. Electric locomotives l'egarding the above-listed benefits, the as used in Europe have been capable of $,liantitative estimates vary a great deal. adhesion in excess of 27 percent, or 50 f.91• example, maintenance costs of elec- percent more than the 18 percent Pc locomotives have been estimated achieved by North American diesel elec- 'rem. 25 to 60 percent of diesel-electric trics (this was verified in 1971 through 3'38ts; the life of electric locomotives has tests conducted by Canadian Pacific in eri. taken as 25 to 30 years; of diesel- Norway and Switzerland, Fisher, 1971). eiectrics—from 15 to 25 years. Such superior performance was the re- sult of sophisticated wheel slip controls Although it is usually conceded that developed in Europe and low unsprung lin a horse power basis the electric lo- v. weight on European locomotives. In the ornotives are cheaper, there is no agree- wake of European experience, several eat on the magnitude of the price dif- f improved slip control systems have been erential. Similarly, there is much un- recently introduced on North American ,ertaintye regarding the cost of diesel liel diesel-electrics (including- Canadian Na- versus electrical energy. tional's Positive Traction Control, or thAs for the other side of the ledger, PTC), so that the relative advantage of ,e additional costs of electrification in- electrics over diesel-electrics is being eroded. capital and maintenance costs of The complexity of the technical as- electrical power supply (distribu- pects of electrification, apparent from tion to substations, substations and the above review, is reflected in the wide catenary); range of conditions which characterize -- signal and communication systems electrified operations. Traffic density, re- immune to electromagnetic inter- garded as the single most significant ference associated with catenaries determinant of electrification's viability, and electric traction; shows considerable variation between ---- structural changes in track condi- different systems. In Western Europe tions, such as bridge and tunnel and Soviet Russia, electrified lines oper- clearances. ate at densities from 10 to 20 MMGT/ year (million gross tons per year), Other uncertainties concern the im- while in the US estimates of the mini- V.et of electrification on railway oper- mum required density range from 20 to '111g practices which have been stand- 40 MAIGT/year, the 30 to 40 MMGT/ 66, TRANSPORTATION RESEARCH FORUM year figures being most often quoted electric utilities and telephone compa- (TRB, 1977, pp. 73, 77). nies) and (iii) freight rates set on the In view of the high complexity of basis of the operating costs that would railway electrification elaborate models have persisted if diesel operation con- have been used in the US and Canada tinued (rather than on the basis of costs to project electrification scenarios and actually incurred after electrification, as assess their economic performance. With in (i) above). such models, the sensitivity of results The results are shown in Fig. 2. to changes in the assumptions could be With freight rates pegged to operating determined. Typical exercises of this costs, electrification decreases the rate kind are the CIGGT (1976) and the SRI of return (on equity and on investment) (1980) studies of electrification in Can- during the period of electrification. It ada and the US, respectively. is found that the average freight rates percent. In the Canadian study (CIGGT, 1976), decrease in both cases by a few However, with the freight rates pegged the present value of "savings" gener- operations, ated through electrification was esti- to the cost of diesel-electric mated as the difference between the the rate of return shows a dramatic in- costs of electric and diesel-electric oper- crease for the electrified system: return ations (this model did not address the on equity increases from about 13 to 18 question of freight rates and revenues). percent, return on investment—fro It was found that electrification at traf- about 8.5 to 16.5 percent. fic volumes exceeding about 20 MMGT/ The results of assessments of electri- year would bring in savings. The esti- fication in Canada and the US are es- mates of future traffic indicated that sentially similar. Both models show that, some 3400 miles of track would carry at sufficiently high traffic levels, the coo' more than 60 MMGT/year by the end nomic performance of an electrified rail- of the century; on 4400 miles, 40 way system is superior to a diesel-elec- MMGT/year would be exceeded by the tric one. Nevertheless, a decision to elec- year 2000. A scenario was developed for trify would not necessarily follow, but, electrification of a 500 mile prototype as discussed below, would depend on track segment (CN line from Edmonton many additional factors. to Kamloops) by 1981, followed by 9000 Impediments to electrification. The track miles coming into service between distribution of benefits resulting fronl 1985 and 2004. The financial analysis es- electrification represents one among sev- tablished an annual traffic level of 40 eral, critical considerations and uncer- MMGT "as a possible threshold for cor- tainties. If rates were regulated as in porate viability of electrification" and the US scenario or if there were strong suggested that "electrification may not consumer and political pressures (e.g.: appear financially attractive to a cor- in an inflationary climate), only a small porate firm until the annual traffic level fraction of the benefits of electrification approaches 60 million gross tons. How- would be left with the railways. Most ever, interference with train operation of the benefits or all of them would ac- during conversion may be very serious crue to the society as a whole, but the at the higher traffic levels. This implies investment in electrification could be that once it is decided to electrify a disastrous for the railway. Clearly, the section of line, conversion should occur decision to electrify will require strong close to, or even below, the financial involvement and commitment by the reg- threshold" (CIGGT, 1976, p. 8-24). ulators and governments. In the SRI study a different approach In addition to the rate issue, maTlY was used. A 9000 mile network of 14 other factors are viewed by railways a5 high density traffic routes linking major deterrents to electrification. The list in- US freight classification yards was se- cludes: lected for electrification from 1980 to — Uncertainty of long term forecasts 1998, with the first link coming into of traffic levels, critical to the economic operation in 1985. The economic per- viability of electrification; formance of this system during the pe- — Uncertainty, over long term, of riod 1980 through 2025 was estimated, relative costs of and elec- as well as the performance of continued trical energy. Energy prices are subject diesel-electric-only operations. In each to world-wide market and economic con- case, three sets of calculations were per- ditions, policies of producers and con- formed, for (i) freight rates directly sumers of oil, regulation of electric util- proportional to operating costs (a his- ities, development of new processes and torically justified assumption), (ii) technologies, etc. The record of energY freight rates based on equitable (i.e., price forecasts over the past decade has equal to that achieved in 1975) return not been good. on investment (this criterion has been — In the US and Canada, future oc- used for such regulated industries as pansion of coal haulage accounts for THE FUTURE OF RAILWAY ELECTRIFICATION 67

RATE OF RETURN ON INVESTMENT AND ON EQUITY UNDER DIFFERENT FREIGHT RATE REGULATORY PRACTICES

18

16 E: DIESEL COST BAEIY—.1' 14 12 D: COST BASED 10 E:..1NVESTMENT BASED

6 Ei COST BASED 4 D = DIESEL—ELECTRIC E = ELECTRIFIED 2

1980 2000 2020 YEAR

20

18 E: DIESEL COST BASED, -- 16 _ — ----

- e D: COST BASED ,-- / 1E: INVESTMENT BASED — / .... .,

E: COST BASED 8 D = DIESEL—ELECTRIC E = ELECTRIFIED

4

0 1 1980 2000 2020 YEAR

FIGURE 2 68 TRANSPORTATION 'RESEARCH FORUM pera- most of the predicted rail freight ___. Under optimum conditions, o of an electrified railway differ from growth. The predicted increase in ship- tions prevalent ments of major commodities across the diesel-electric operations now North already noted, Canadian Rockies is shown in Fig. 3. in America. As lighter Concern has been expressed, at least in electric operations favor faster, the US, that if coal slurry pipelines and more frequent trains. The railwaYs were built, most of the profitable future and the labor are reluctant to change 3 has been around for manY coal traffic would be denied railways. practice that better Thus slurry pipeline competition would years and to adopt work rules eliminate the basis for electrification of suited to modern electrified railway 0P- many rail links, particularly in the US erations; — The North American railway sYs' west and mid-west; particularlY — So far, data on costs of electrified ei.n is highly fragmented, railway operations based on actual local in the US, where the majority of freiOt is carried over two or more lines. This experience are not available in North electrification, America. It is therefore not possible to is a structure ill-suited to make a simple comparison of capital and which requires an integrated system Of, Maintenance costs of an electrified oper- high density routes. A high degree a railways would .be ation (including locomotives, catenary, coordination between -wide to implement a country substations, signals and communications) required ther.e with costs of the current diesel-electric plan of electrification. At present, system. Until figures based on actual ex- are corridors in which the density electrification attrac- perience are available, estimates of the sufficient to make car electrified system's costs are suspect; tive, but only one, or none of the phasing-out riers operating in the corridor gener- — Electrification entails sufficient t.o of diesel-electric locomotives. The fi- ates density on its own line For example, 111 nancial terms under which diesel-elec- justify electrification. Worth/Dallas- trics would be disposed of are highly the mid-1970s, the Fort uncertain; Houston corridor had a density 413f

THE PROJECTED GROWTH OF RAIL TRAFFIC OF THE FOUR MAJOR COMMODITIES ACROSS THE CANADIAN ROCKIES (RGI, 1982)

80

60

10 Grain

1950 1955 1960 19165 1970 19175 1980 1985 1990

FIGURE 3 THE FUTURE OF RAILWAY ELECTRIFICATION 69

BIM:MGT/year, but none of the five car- and the risk of corporate insolvency is r,iers involved generated more than 27 increased. ',AMGT/year (TRB, 1977, p. 78). Clear- Summing up, the situation of North in such cases electrification would American railways not is such that, al- be envisaged without restructuring though the benefits of electrification at and consolidation. For example, equit- high traffic levels able are generally ac- joint-use agreements would have to knowledged, they are considered insuf- 133 worked out to protect the interests ficient to merit extensive private of in- all parties involved. vestment, given the risk and the All of the above aspects add-up to difficulties that capital-intensive railways the reluctance of North American rail already have in Ways raising capital. Un- to electrify, in spite of perceived familiarity and lack of experience with economies of electric over diesel-electric modern electrified railway technology oPerations and the general view that and operations and fragmented structure electrification is inevitable." The situ- of the railway industry also deter elec- ation has been aptly characterized as trification. the one in which everybody in the rail Private versus national perspective,. Way industry "is in a race to be sec- ond." Clearly, electrification of North Ameri- can railways is not likely to take place Pinancing. The lack of financing is if railway operations are viewed ex:- ,ieen as the single largest obstacle in elusively from the business perspective 'fle path of electrification. There is con- of risk minimization and profit maxi- !ensus that the capital needed for elec- mization. However, given the signifi- Lrifieation is beyond the resources of cance of railways in the spectrum of Inost railway companies. Electricification North American Iflay transportation and the involve a one-time investment of benefits of electrification, the issue of ,u'Paralleled magnitude, comparable the to railway electrification needs to be con- original construction of the railroad. sidered in national, rather than in pri- Although some r financially successful vate terms. Narrow economic consider- ailways could raise the funds needed ations should fOr not take precedence over electrification, such investment the national interest.2 I,vould have to compete with other needs The latter has been emphasized k such out- as capital for rolling stock, up- side of North America. Virtually every- grading of track and yard facilities, sig- where else railways are state owned !ialling and communications), which may and operated as single integrated na- Involve less risk, bring higher return tional systems. They rely heavily on ooner or be mandatory. This, indeed, government Is th funds and their financing e current situation in Canada, with depends on national investment policies. P and CN engaged in a program of In North ,I.neF America, nationalization of upgrading required to meet the an- railways would not be considered desir- PeiPated traffic growth. Capacity is be- able or necessary to insure that nation- ,111g expanded, particularly in the c West, al interest is well served.3 Nevertheless, 'rough double-tracking, reduction of in the present circumstances, some form grades and purchase of rolling stock, at of government participation would be n estimated cost of $C 17.8 billion 'ne over required. This was the view expressed 1981-1991 period (RGI, 1981). by R. Lawless, president, CN Rail, who As for the borrowing ability of the stated that "a decision to start the proc- railroad industry, it is already low in ess of electrification would probably view of the relatively high debt/equity involve a policy decision to participate atios; investment in electrification on the part of one or perhaps several 'vould make future borrowings even governments" (G & M, 1981). illore difficult. Financial assistance The could be provid- financing difficulties reflect the ed by government through direct loans, large perceived risks of electrification loan guarantees \vhich or insurance, creation is viewed as an "all-or-nothing" of a railway trust fund, tax subsidies, roposition. The costs of electrification etc. pave to be borne immediately and have A closer involvement of the govern- negative impact on cash flow; the ment has been also suggested. It could ,I3enefits accrue slowly, over many years. mean sole or joint ownership of fixed in- costs are relatively well defined, stallations for electrification, sale of l'ne benefits—uncertain. "In effect, elec- electric power c to the railway and lease rification exchanges the variable cost of the installation. A Of joint ownership energy and labor for the fixed cost could involve the railway, utilities, gov- 9,f electrification conversion" (CIGGT, ernment agencies, and other organiza- 1976, p. 10-75). As the time span of tions. benefits lengthens, they become more v Given the lack of experience with ulnerable to erroneous trend forecasts modern electrified operations in North 70 TRANSPORTATION RESEARCH FORUM modes) taic America, government assistance could - Low (relative to other gost be initially concerned with setting up of subsidy on depreciation (Capital a demonstration project. In the US, a Allowance), resulting in relatively hIgh Conrail line from Harrisburg to Pitts- cost of capital; other - (relative to burgh, now in an advanced planning Negligible research stage for electrification (SRI, 1980, p. modes) government funding of 16), could fulfill this role. In Canada, and development. rates is being the CN line from Edmonton to Kamloops The problem of grain governmen. t. to now tackled by the federal and the CP line from Thunder Bay other in- *Winnipeg have been proposed (GIGGT, The redress of this and of the railways' finall-k. 1976, chapter 9). equities would improve interest, It is of course unlikely that a major cial situation and enhance their program of electrification would be un- in electrification. dertaken by any government without ac- tive support of railways. As discussed PASSENGER OPERATIONS by Allison (TRB, 1977, p. 84), there has railroad in- Passenger rail traffic peaked in North been a "failure of the (US) the end dustry to more aggressively advocate America in the late 1940s (after rail- of World War II) and has declined since government financial assistance for market was road electrification. .. . inbred practices to negligible low levels. The buses and familiarity with the existing fleet taken over by automobiles and of diesel-electric power that has per- operating on superhighways and by air" craft; traditional slow trains became formed reasonably well, a lack of con- public de; viction regarding the benefits of electri- totally uncompetitive. As the mountea fication on the part of individual car- serted the trains, the deficits Iii the riers, and perhaps a realization that and the services deteriorated. were taken major electrification projects should not 1970s, passenger operations stablish- vacuum," are some over by governments through e be carried out in a ra,s; of the reasons for railways' attitude. ment of the US National Railroad These observations are equally appli- senger Corporation (AMTRAK) in 1'91 cable to Canada. The demonstration proj- and VIA Rail Canada Inc. in 1977. ects mentioned above would help to gen- With the exception of the US„sinew. Nor,ti!,„-. project, only erate railways' support. east Corridor train? The apparent lack of interest on the measures were taken to make the new rolling st"5 part of the railways in seeking govern- more attractive. Some eqii was introduced (in the US), old ill. ment assistance reflects their desire for and res- preservation of independence and free- ment was refurbished, ticketing dom from bureaucratic interference with ervations were streamlined. But, wit:h their operations. Unlike other modes the out sufficient capital needed to imPo,',v railways, as owners of tracks, commu- roadbeds and signalling, train spec"' could not be increased and rail's corn- nications and other permanent facilities, bettered. have not taken advantage of government petitive position could not be furnished transportation infrastructure. The process of decay of passenger, Denied such huge indirect subsidies as trains in North America was analyzeAt: are allocated to the air and water modes, in earlier studies (Lukasiewicz, 10'A the railways have paid dearly in tech- 1980). These investigations suggesteu nological obsolescence for their "inde- that AMTRAK and VIA Rail initiatives.; "revitalize"' 131' pendence." Had such resources been which were supposed to in available to them, they could have kept services and cut losses, would lead and—in the fa'c abreast of technological progress. The stead to higher losses Con- necessity of government involvement in of rising subsidies—to service cuts. railway electrification is just one aspect sequently, the substitution of buses ir,1 of the broader issue of railway modern- place of traditional obsolete trains an," ization, which depends on the provision introduction of modern fast trains 1r1 of equitable financing to the railway high traffic corridors were advocated. mode. The recent data on AMTRAK and -Or; In addition to the lack of subsidiza- Rail performance and the developmen'l presented beloW, tion for the infrastructure, several other in fast intercity rail, recoui- factors have had an adverse effect on bear out these predictions and the finances of Canadian railways.4 A mendations. list of such factors includes: Mounting losses and subsidies. The — The imposition of non-compensa- subsidization of passenger rail in Can' tory grain rates ("Crowsnest Pass ada since 1972 is recorded in Table 1. Rates") frozen at 1897 level. In 1981_ It shows that taxpayers' cost of pass alone the losses incurred on grain ship- ger rail has been increasing at an alarni; ments came to $335 million (RGI, ing rate: from $56.6-million in 1972," 1982); has exceeded $450-million per year since THE FUTURE OF RAILWAY ELECTRIFICATION 71

TABLE 1

SUBSIDIZATION OF PASSENGER RAIL IN CANADA 1972 - 1981 ($CAN) (Canadian Transport Commission and Via Rail Inc. Annual Reports)

YEAR $ CURRENT $ 1981 ''EAR $ CURRENT $ 1981 (MILLION) (MILLION) (MILLION) (MILLION) 1972 56.6 128.5 1977 184.0 272.3 1973 108.6 229.2 1978 227.1 308.9 1974 137.9 262.2 1979 491.7 609.7 1975 151.3 260.2 1980 458.9 518.6 1976 175.0 280.0 1981 512.8 512.8 1972-81 total 2503.9 3382.4 NYments were made in the years shown; they may include claims for earlier years.

197r, 9. Between 1972 and 1971, Canadians lion in 1981. In the past three years, 'Pent in real terms (1981 dollars) 3.4 for each dollar of revenue, VIA spent billion on maintenance of obsolete pas- more than four dollars for operations enger train services. and equipment. The subsidy per unit output has es- As noted in the earlier studies (Lu- ealated at a fast rate, from 3.40 per kasiewicz, 1979, 1980), the policy the PassengerIf -mile in 1972 to 300 in 1981. government has followed since 1967 has has risen from $9 per revenue passen- been not only tremendously ger in wasteful but 1972 to $71 in 1981. also highly inequitable: it has given the These enormous and rapidly escalating rail passenger a much higher subsidy libsidies had no impact whatsoever on than accorded the users of other modes. the volume of transportation they were In the mid-1970s, the train passenger suPPosed to "revitalize": over the same subsidy amounted to 150 percent of the Period the traffic (revenue passenger fare compared to 38 percent for the air lies) increased by a negligible 2 per- passengers; the bus rider paid virtually cent (from 1,660 million in 1972 to 1,- all costs while the car traveller received million in 1981), while the trains' O.6 per mile. Today, with the rail sub- „tiare of traffic continued to decrease. sidy at over 300 percent, the inequity is ihe cost of supporting the rail passen- even larger. Clearly, if VIA passengers hgers has skyrocketed to absurd heights. were subsidized more on a par with 1979, the subsidization of VIA pas- other travellers (to the extent of, say, engers has risen to a staggering 300 50 percent of the fare), VIA fares would percent of the at fare, and has remained more than double and VIA patronage this level. would all but disappear. The results of the first three years of .tu The performance of AMTRAK, which 1i-scale operations by VIA are sum- started to operate on May 1, 1971, is nlarized in Table 2. In 1981 the total summarized in Table 3. During the early libsidy for VIA was three times the (1972-1974), s years of operation the traf- tibsidy paid by the Canadian Transport fic increased by about 40 percent, and eir?mmission in 1976. Between 1979 and the revenues were in the range of 50 81, VIA subsidy for operations alone to 60 percent of operating expenses. In Increased by 65 percent while the traf- subsequent years the traffic stayed at a increased by only 6 percent; the to- level of 4 to 5 billion passenger-miles 'al VIA subsidy (operations and equip- per year, while the revenue/expenditure eat) increased by $192 million. The ratio decreased to about 40 percent. By ,4413 between VIA's expenditures and 1980, the cost of operations exceeded venues has been expanding inexorably: the revenues by $674 million, while to- s'nee 1979 it has been growing by $100 tal grants (operating and capital) stood llion per year to reach $516.5 mil- at $821 million. The subsidy amounted 72 TRANSPORTATION RESEARCH FORUM

TABLE 2

VIA RAIL PERFORMANCE (CURRENT $ CAN.) (VIA Rail Annual Reports)

1979 1980 1981 $ MILLION $ MILLION $ MILLION 160.8 REVENUES — 103.8 137.1 399.8 SUBSIDIES — OPERATIONS 243.0 320.1 TOTAL 316.6 414.7 508.4 559.2 EXPENDITURES — OPERATIONS 346.0 455.8 TOTAL 420.8 554.7 677.3

REVENUE PASSENGER—MILES 1697* (MILLION) 1598 1690

REVENUE PASSENGERS 7.2* (MILLION) 6.5 6.8 shown. Revenues, subsidies and expenditures are in respect to operations in the years ratio revenue/total *Derived from total passenger-miles and passengers carried, assuming the same as in 1980

maintain to 180 per passenger mile and $39 per for VIA Rail and promised to pe- transcontinental and other low densitg revenue passenger. In the 1972-1980 e amounted to routes. Of a total of $1.5 billion to b riod, AMTRAK revenues for $2.6 billion against a total in grants of spent by 1984, $1.1 billion is port of operations and $446 million Vr $4.1 billion. During the last four years will of the period (1977-1980), the total of capital expenditures. The latter addition grants (i.e., the subsidy) stood at 190 elude ten LRC train sets (in 50 coaches ordered to 230 percent of revenues. to 22 locomotives and serv- in 1978). As noted below, VIA Rail Although the above statistics indicate significantlY a somewhat better performance of AM- ices will not be improved percent through LRC equipment. TRAK relative to VIA Rail (200 similar dif- instead of 300 percent subsidy), they As AMTRAK experienced govern- nevertheless clearly show that, just as ficulties to VIA Rail's the US AMTRAK's ob- ment took a more realistic stand. "The in the case of VIA Rail, then W,e of making passenger rail pay user pays and if he doesn't, jective Reagan s its own way eventually proved unattain- cut" has been the theme of whose average administration transportation PolicY' able. Obviously, a system long-distance speed is 46 mph (in 1979; 91 percent of With the realization that at sched- trains and trains in low-traffic regions route mileage was operated deg' e1 uled speeds below 55 mph) and which can never achieve a reasonable trains (runs of economic viability, a very substantl includes many long distance network is in excess of 500 miles accounted for 90 reduction in the AMTRAK route mileage; 54 percent envisaged by 1986, when AMTRAK Pas- percent of Peri were over 1000 miles; 23 percent—over sengers would be expected to pay 50 2000 miles) cannot possibly compete with cent of all costs (a figure of 80 Pacer/e- the faster and newer modes, no matter was mentioned by the Office of means no Pa': how high the subsidy. and Budget). This Northeasi trains except in the In the face of VIA Rail's disastrous senger intercitl financial performance, the Canadian gov- Corridor and on a few other ernment announced in July 1981 drastic routes. AMTRAK's route mileage Was cuts in passenger services to take effect already cut by 16 percent in 1979; on November 15, 1981 (15 trains and 19 October 1, 1981 fares were increas.e, percent of route mileage eliminated; re- on-board services curtailed and the ni„licei duced schedules of 6 other trains). Para- age cut a further 10 percent. The 1:rii doxically, at the same time the govern- budget of $735 million is 118 rnilii'° ment decided to continue high subsidies short of AMTRAK's request. THE FUTURE OF RAILWAY ELECTRIFICATION 73

TABLE 3

AMTRAK PERFORMANCE (CURRENT $US: AMTRAK ANNUAL REPORTS)

YEAR SYSTEM PASSENGER * OPERATING * OPERATING * OPERATING CAPITAL TOTAL ROUTE-MILES MILES REVENUES EXPENSES GRANTS GRANTS GRANTS THOUSAND BILLION $ MILLION $ MILLION MILLION $ MILLION $ MILLION ,1971 30 30 1972 23 3.04 162.6 301.1 114.2 114.2 1973 22 3.81 202.1 345.3 112 112 „1974 24 4.26 256.9 497.7 168.8 0.75 169.6 1975 26 3.94 252.7 567.0 306.6 1.38 308.0 1976 26 4.16 277.8 665.8 363.8 12.5 376.2 1977 26 4.33 311.3 784.2 482.6 226.1 708.7 1978 26 4.03 313.0 841.5 555.2 160.3 715.4 1979 27 4.92 375.1 952.8 606.2 159.9 766.1 1980 24 4.58 428.7 1102.8 658.1 163.1 821.2

TOTAL 1972-1980 2580.1. 6058.2 3367.4 724.1 4091.5 1981 668 202 870.0

*In these columns, calendar year data is given for years 1972 to 1975. Other data is for fiscal years ending on September 30th.

In the light of VIA Rail's and AM- trains and long distance trains repre- rRAK's experience to date, one can sent an obsolete technology which has e?ivisage further contraction of tradi- outlived its usefulness. tional passenger rail services as costs In Western Europe and Japan, the escalate and subsidies mount. The fast- competitive advantage of speed has been er this process is completed, the sooner well appreciated by railways. The sched- the waste of public funds on mate- ules of passenger trains have been con- nance of an obsolete technology will be tinually accelerated, lines improved and arrested and resources freed for other, new generations of rolling stock for op- /nore productive uses. eration well above 100 mph developed. Fast passenger trains. The low speed For many years now, major intercity f traditional passenger trains, of the runs in France, UK and West Germany _Icind operated by VIA Rail and AM- operate on conventional tracks at aver- xRAK, that could not compete with the age speeds in excess of 75 mph (inclu- 8Peed of the aircraft, and with the speed sive of intermediate stops; RGI, 1981a). and convenience of the automobile and For decades, there has been a sustained the bus, has been the fundamental cause effort in Western Europe and Japan to of the passenger rail demise in North reduce train travel time. The chronology America. of the SNCF Paris-Lyons run, shown in Trains averaging 100 to 150 mph can Table 4, is typical of the continuing Fonvete with the road and air modes, progress. Out only on relatively short distances, Japan and France have been in the lop to about 350 miles; in the long-haul forefront of development of equipment rnarket, the jetliner outperforms all for operation at speeds of 130 mph and Other modes. beyond. The economic viability of railway as In Japan, after only 5 years of con- a. mass-transportation system is also struction, 130 mph (max.) Shinkansen circumscribed by the volume of traffic. bullet-train service was inaugurated be- This limits trains to operations in high tween Tokyo and Osaka (320 miles) in density corridors, i.e., between major 1964; in 1975 it was extended to Hakata Population centers. (additional 344 miles). The Shinkansen , Thus the domain of passenger train operation has no parallel in the history 111_ s been narrowed in North America to of railways; its remarkable performance nigh speed (100 - 150 mph average) op- is summarized in Table 5. Electric train eliations within short (350 miles or less) sets, each consisting of 16 cars (1345 high density traffic corridors. The slow seats), run on dedicated tracks at a fre- 74 TRANSPORTATION RESEARCH FORUM quency of up to 10 departures per hour A northern extension of the bullet ee (in each direction) and at speeds up to train network, from Tokyo to Niigata 130 mph; the operation is highly auto (167 miles) and to Marioka (289 miles) ir mated. Up to 1981, over 1.7 billion pas- will be completed this year. The net- by sengers were carried on Shinkansen work is to be eventually extended to all without a single casualty. four islands (5 additional routes) for tvc Beginning with the third year of op- a total route mileage of 2060 miles. 27 eration, Shinkansen has been highly The possibility of increasing the maxi- hI profitable; from 1968 it has achieved op- mum speed to 160 mph is considered and tji erating ratios below 60 percent. Its cu- equipment faster than now in use is be- mulative operating ratio up to 1979 was ing developed. In November, 1979 a tyPe at 58 percent. 961 Shinkansen train set reached 190 dc These figures are based on expendi- mph. tures which include operating expenses As for still higher speeds, Japan leads ta as well as repayment of loans (principal in the development of magnetically levi- ti' and interest) and pro-rated costs of re- tated vehicles and holds the world speed D( search and development. record of 321 mph established in De' Si. tI

TABLE 4 111 Tri TRAIN TRAVEL TIME AND AVERAGE SPEED BETWEEN PARIS AND LYON 8( YEAR 1900 1960 1980 1981a 1983b Ii Route distance (mile) • 318 318 318 280.5 265 81 Duration (hr: min) 5:07 4:00 3:48 2:40 2:00 s] ti Average speed (mph) 62 79.5 83.7 105 132 2 a—started operating on 27 September 1981 b—after completion of new line t' 2 TABLE 5 a SHINKANSEN OPERATIONS (TOKYO TO HAKATA LINE)

In 1979: Passengers carried: 124 million Total number of up and down trains per day: 255 Departures per hour (in each direction): Up to 10 Average load factor: 51 percent Maximum speed: 130 mph Average speed (through trains): 100 to 107 mph Revenue: $3,177 million Total expenses (operating, capital and R & D): $1,814 million Operating ratio: 57 percent Number of passengers carried in first 16 years of operation: 1.5 billion Number of fatalities in first 16 years of operations: none THE FUTURE OF RAILWAY ELECTRIFICATION 75

eember, 1979. routes. This foreign experience is par- . Shinkansen's 130 mph maximum speed ticularly relevant for North America, !r1 regular service has been surpassed where modern train technology has not by the French 160 mph TGV (Train been developed and fast passenger trains Grande Vitesse), in hourly service be- are not operated. \Nreen Paris and Lyon since September In the United States, the potential of 4.7, 1981. The new TGV Paris-Sud-Est passenger trains gained limited recogni- h.ne was approved in 1974 and construc- tion tion in 1976, when electrification and up- started in 1976. Five years later the grading of the Northeast Corridor first, 171 mile segment came into oper- (W as hin gt o n-New York-Boston) to qtion with new TGV equipment. The speeds up to 120 mph was authorized. double track alignment was designed The $2.5 billion project is to be com- With a minimum radius of 4000 m and, pleted in 1985 (RGI, 1981b). The aver- ,taking advantage of high speed and trac- age speed will be increased to 84 mph Live power, with a ruling grade of 3.5 (2 hr 40 min trip time) on the Wash- Percent; since no tunnels were necessary, ington-New York run and to 63 mph $.ubstantial savings were realized. The (3 hr 40 min) on the New York-Boston line was designed for 186 mph, a speed run. Electric locomotives of Swedish de- that is being considered for the future sign will be used. This performance falls and which is within the TGV capability. short of the modern Since passenger rail prac- , February, 1981, a TGV train set tice, but nevertheless constitutes an im- nolds the speed record for trains at 240 provement over the present service. It inPh. (The previous 1955 record of 206 reflects the decision to use the existing 1111)h was also held by SNCF). multi-track alignment (with many junc- At present, the maximum average tions, yards and industrial sidings) s:oheduled speed of the Paris-Lyon run which carries heavy freight and commu- r1 the new line is 105 mph; when the ter traffic—a solution that may prove line is completed in 1983, the average less than adequate, both in terms of ser- Speed will increase to 132 mph, i.e., vice quality and the cost of maintaining Slightly above the present maximum tracks to adequate standards. Given the sPeed of the Shinkansen. It is estimated short distances and the large centers of that the TGV Paris-Lyon operations will population, a dedicated line using TGV ‘,15ring a return on investment from 15 to or bullet trains would have been more 40 percent. appropriate. Looking into the future, plans are In 1981, studies of 25 potential rail niade for expansion of TGV services to passenger corridors were completed by the west and south-west of Paris. TGV- AMTRAK and Department of Transpor- Atlantique will provide, from Paris, a tation. The Los Angeles-San Diego, New 2 hr connection to Rennes and Nantes, York-Buffalo and Philadelphia-Atlantic ,aPd, on its southern leg, a 3 hr connec- City corridors showed most promise. Lion to Bordeaux. However, DOT secretary Lewis stated The approach that both Japan and that none of the markets could be served trance have chosen—of lines designed without an increase in public subsidy exclusively for high speed trains—has and opposed the expansion of AMTRAK Paid off. On the other hand, Britain's services. attempt to operate at 160 mph in mixed The first truly modern, state-of-the- !raffle on conventional tracks has run art trains are likely to be introduced in Into difficulties. The electric APT (Ad- North America through applications of vanced Passenger Train), under devel- Japanese technology. °Pment for some 15 years, was to enter In 1981, the Japanese National Rail- service in 1978. It featured an articulat- ways have initiated, under a contract ,ed design and an active tilt mechanism, cO funded by the Japanese Shipbuilding In- allow fast travel on curves with no dustry 3i Foundation, feasibility studies of lscomfort. First introduced in Decem- exclusive bullet-train routes i er, in the 1981, it was withdrawn after 5 United States. The following four routes says due to equipment problems (tread have been selected as the most promis- ) transmission raltes, and tilt mechan- ing: Los Angeles-San Diego, Dallas/ i,s_m). The slower diesel-electric HST Fort Worth-Houston, Miami-Orlando- k High Speed Train), operating at 125 Tampa, and Chicago-Detroit. AMTRAK ;111311 maximum and introduced in 1978, expects that has bullet-trains running at been highly successful. speeds up to 150 mph can be operated The progress in the technology and profitably in such high density corri- operation of passenger trains and espe- dors. "If such preliminary projections of cially the remarkable success of Shin- profitability can be confirmed, it is AM- Icansen and TGV, summarized above, TRAK's intention to seek private financ- have established the viability of fast rail ing for bullet train construction, avoid- en short to medium range, high density ing the need for any direct government 76 TRANSPORTATION RESEARCH FORUM the subsidy"—stated AMTRAK's president tionale behind the LRC and behind stressing the Alan S. Boyd. APT have been similar, curves) 1982, the American High ability (through high speeds on In April, on existing Speed Rail Corporation was formed to to run significantly faster track than conventional trains. develop and operate fast rail passenger illusorY Los Angeles and San However, these appear to be service between constrained bY Diego, initially, and later on the other advantages. With speeds unprotect- three routes. The new company was giv- risk of collision on numerous by signalling en a loan of $750,000 by AMTRAK and. ed at-grade crossings and opera- will be seeking some $2 billion in pri- systems designed for low speed tions, the LRC schedules can't be sig- vate financing, with about 25 percent of ones; that amount expected to come from Jap- nificantly shorter than the current that the lessons 01 anese investors. Indeed, it appears to be The 125 mile Los Angeles-San Diego the ill-fated Turbotrains have yet min- as the LRC, this 125 mPll express run would be covered in 59 learned. Just operate utes, compared to 2 hr 40 min now; equipment was constrained to mph. trains which make intermediate stops at a maximum speed of 95 nGT would take 90 min. Departures would be In any event, as pointed out by C1,-. i4 scheduled every 30 min, with 17 trains (1980a), the LRC operation at 125 InPiL gener- other, more per day in each direction. A new would not be practical for tonnes, ation of bullet trains, capable of 160 fundamental reasons. At over 25 mph, would operate on exclusive right- the LRC locomotive axle load is "t°° of-way along the interstate highway. high to permit running at speeds over Fares were projected (1981 dollars) at 95 mph without excessive track damage generally ae- $29.25 compared to air fares between from dynamic load." The loads, $35 and $62. The cost of all fixed facili- cepted solution is to reduce axle ties was estimated at $2 billion (at $16 and especially the unsprung mass. Th.e on a daily traf- TGV, the Brl" million per mile). Based French fast trains and e fic of 30,000 passengers, annual reve- tish HST and APT, and the Japanes nues of $321 million were calculated bullet trains all have axle loads which compared to $113 million in annual costs do not exceed 17 tonnes. Also, to keeP of operations. The difference of $208 the unsprung mass to the minimum,' million would be available for profit and they use frame-hung motors. The LEI), to service the debt on the construction as is the American practice, uses axle" costs. hung motors. loco- If these expectations are realized, the The high axle loads of the LRC first American Shinkansen will be un- motive are in some measure due to tir doubtedly replicated in other corridors. North American standards for strengtn' It has been suggested that bullet trains which apply to both freight and passen- will have the most substantial impact ger rolling stock. They reflect the tr,a; on intercity travel and commuting pat- dition of mixed operations, in wille; terns since the advent of the automobile freight and passenger cars are operate and commercial aviation. in the same consist. The European P The passenger rail developments in senger rollinz stock is designed for 30u," load com- Canada have not paralleled the progress 000 to 400,000 lb. compressive North in the United States. There are no spe- pared to 800,000 lb. required in cific plans to upgrade the Windsor-Que- America. This standard would not aPPlY bec corridor for faster operations or to to operations on a dedicated track. construct a dedicated high speed line. Not only the design concept of the Although in Canada—just like in the LRC appears to be flawed, but also its US—it is the track and signalling that development has been inordinately lofl limit train speeds, the government has when compared to the development 01 supported the development and procure- truly innovative equipment, such as the ment of faster trains but has not pro- bullet and the TGV trains. vided for improvements to the right of Preliminary design of the LRC 10,54 way required to allow higher speed op- prepared in 1967; in 1969 funding Nva' erations. obtained and construction of a prototyPe The LRC (for Light, Rapid and Com- locomotive and coach was completed ill fortable) train has been under develop- 1971. Five years of extensive testing, in' ment since 1967, with a government eluding 120 mph running at the US De: grant of $2.5 million and $1.1 million partment of Transportation test track at' provided later for testing. The LRC is a Pueblo, Colorado, as well as testing un," diesel-electric train built to North der service conditions in Canada fol; American standards but somewhat light- lowed. In spite of a 15 year period 01, er than the older equipment and features development, the LRC trains could n°' —just like the British APT—an active be put in regular service as advertized body tilt. Indeed, it appears that the ra- on October 25, 1981 and had to be with THE FUTURE OF RAILWAY ELECTRIFICATION 77 drawn from service after only a few As for high speed train operations in runs in December, 1981. Since then, LRC the Canada, so far studies have been a sub- trains have been operated, unadver- stitute for action. tized, The latest and the between Montreal and Ottawa, most extensive investigation has been Toronto and Quebec; they are to enter completed by the CIGGT regular in 1980 service on June 1, 1982. (CIGGT, 1980b). Commissioned by the The LRC record to date is reminiscent government, it hasn't been publicized of the Turbotrains, which and its recommendations have met en had to be tak- with out of service on five occasions be- official silence. The CIGGT study, mod- tween 1969 and 1979. As already noted, eled on the French TGV project, indi- the British APT cates that between Toronto ure represents another fail- and Montreal in meeting development schedule. (via Kingston, Ottawa and Mirabel, see The development of these trains ap- Fig. 4), 160 mph electric trains (Toron- Pears to be highly unsatisfactory when to-Montreal in 2 hr 44, Ottawa-Montreal eomParedL to the history of HST in in 1 hr) would compete most effectively TGV in France and Shinkansen in with jets, autos and buses and generate ,daPan. The HST, whose design started a traffic of over 7 million passengers per in 1970, went into full production in year (compared to 1.2 million carried 1976 and into revenue service in 1978. by VIA Rail in 1980 on the same route). The TGV and Shinkansen required each An economic assessment shows that such ° Years for construction fast rail is highly desirable and practi- and of equipment track, and entered into full service cal, in spite of $1.5 billion (1978 dollars) on schedule. estimated investment. The LRC train which represents the only concrete cerning initiative in Canada con- HAS AN IMPASSE BEEN REACHED • passenger rail, must be as an viewed IN THE STUDY OF RAILWAY attempt to introduce a technology ELECTRIFICATION AND Which is not appropriate for moderniza- PASSENGER OPERATIONS? lon of train travel. This conclusion has aeen apparently also reached by AM- The above review of the railway elec- trification and passenger operations in In 1978, AMTRAK North America leads to a number l made a $10-million of ease-purchase agreement for two LRC conclusions and observations. train sets, with the provision that al- It is evident that in the last decade lowed AMTRAK ter to return the trains af- many exhaustive technical and economic using them during two years, cost at a studies of electrification have been com of $1.7-million. The trains were de- pleted and that this research has dem- livered to AMTRAK in 1980 and re- onstrated the superiority of electrifica- turned in April, 1982. Evidently, AM- tion under high density traffic conditions. TRAK's experience did not warrant It is also clear that the problem rail- adoption of of the LRC equipment. The way electrification in North America is hoPe that the US will provide a mass not one of technology ruarket or economy, but for the Canadian trains was not of the incompatibility of short term pri- realized. vate profit with long term national in-

HIGH SPEED PASSENGER RAIL TORONTO-MONTREAL

MIRABEL (AIRPORT) OTTAWA 136 km S./ 0:34 MONTREAL .6)

KINGSTON 257 km 1:07 TORONTO TORONTO-MONTREAL: 2 .hr 44 min AVE. SPEED 217 km/h (135 mph) MAX. SPEED 260 km/h (162 mph) FIGURE 4 78 TRANSPORTATION RESEARCH FORUM terest under the present structure and FOOTNOTES For financing of the railway industry. 1 See Lukasiewicz (1976) for background it seems certain that elec- on railway electrification. this reason, formation T. c• trification will not take place without 2 As appreciated already in 1849 by the govern- Keefer (See Lukasiewicz, 1976, p. 192). significant involvement of 3 In spite of the fact that both in the US and does not call for fur- have assumed rf: ment. The situation Canada federal governments AMTRAN for passenger rail (with ther refinements of the already volumi- sponsibility bankrupt but rather in 1971 and VIA Rail in 1977) and for nous electrification studies, freight operations (Conrail and Canadian for devising practical financial and tional). • ad- wouldstructural en- 4 The financing of railways in Canada is arrangements which 12 an" to proceed with elec- dressed in Lukasiewicz (1976, chapters able the railways 17; 1978). trification. A similar situation has evolved, par- ticularly in Canada, with respect to pas- REFERENCES senger train operations. CIGGT (1976) Canadian railway elec- Taking an optimistic view, one would trification study: Phase 1, Canadian expect that, as a result of (i) insistence Institute of Guided Ground Trans- of the administration on reduction of port, Queen's University, Kingston, AMTRAK subsidies, (ii) progress with Ontario, CIGGT Report No. 16-2, the Northeast Corridor project, and 1 & 2, April 1976. National Railways and Railway Technology: a (iii) Japanese CIGGT (1980a) , AMTRAK initiative to establish bullet brief overview, Report No. 80-2 issue of passenger Institute of Guided train operations, the Canadian Univer- rail in the United States will be satis- Ground Transport, Queen's factorily resolved in the foreseeable fu- sity, Kingston, Ontario, 27 June ture. 1980. where Alternatives to air: a The same is not true of Canada, CIGGT (1980b) Toronto- so far no measures were taken toward feasible concept for the modernization of an obsolete system of Ottawa-Montreal corridor, RePor! of the evi- No. 80-4, Canadian Institute 11 passenger trains, in spite Queen s dence which indicates what steps need Guided Ground Transport, to be taken. University, Kingston, Ontario, 681 for 1979, pp, July 1980. The VIA rail financial results Newsletter, 9(1)9 1980 and 1981 and the experience gained CIGGT (1981) CIGGT Institute of Guided with high speed train operations abroad p. 3, Canadian Univer- Ground Transport, Queen's appear to lend further support to a pas- August senger rail policy through which (i) sity, Kingston, Ontario, traditional, i.e., obsolete passenger rail 1981. (1971) 50 kV Through the operations in Canada would be phased Fisher, G. T. Interna- out except where rail is the only pos- Rockies, Railway Gazette 1971, pp. 380-383. sible link (ii) bus services would be sub- tional, October Federal stituted for the discontinued trains and FRA (1974) Press Release, Railroad Administration, FRA-774, would be subsidized on low traffic routes, 1974. as necessary, (iii) modern fast rail Washington, D.C. 6 March (1968) Railroad elec- would be introduced in the Windsor- Friedlander, G. D. , trification: past, present and future Quebec corridor. Such measures would JULY save energy and oil, arrest the waste of IEEE Spectrum, pp. 50-65, 1968. taxpayers' money, provide superior government transportation, relieve congestion at the G & M (1981) CN may seek aid for electric rail scheme, The Toronto airport, provide fast access to Business, the Mirabel airport and generate con- Globe and Mail, Report on siderable industrial activity. p. B5, 8 October 1981. Keefer, T. C. (1899) Presidential Ad- * * dress, Appendix to Proceedinas, and Transactions of the Having looked at the issues of rail- Proceedings Se- way electrification and passenger trains, Royal Society of Canada, 2nd one is tempted to remark that, in Wash- ries 5, Meeting of May, 1899, PP. ington and even more so in Ottawa, 14-15. funding of research has become a sub- Lukasiewicz, J. (1976) The Railiva? stitute for decision and action. Would Game: A Study in Socio-technolog:t any railways have been built in the cal Obsolescence, 302 pp, McClellana nineteenth century had the decision to and Stewart. proceed depended on the kind of studies Lukasiewicz, J. (1978) Some central is; of today? sues of intercity passenger awa and assessments we are fond Canada, Data and information are no substitutes freight transportation in for judgment and, unfortunately, risks CSCE & CSME Annual Conference, are unavoidably tied to benefits. Toronto, 18-19 May 1978. THE FUTURE OF RAILWAY ELECTRIFICATION 79

Lukasiewicz, J. (1979) Public policy and RGI (1981a) Three km/min in Japan— technology: passenger rail in Can- but France will beat them all, Rail- ada as an issue in modernization, way Gazette International, pp. 759- Canadian Public Policy, 4, 518-532, 762, September 1981. Autumn, 1979. RGI (1981b) Thompson, L. S., North- Lukasiewicz, J. (1980) The future of east Corridor project goes into high passenger trains and buses in North gear, Railway Gazette International, America, Proceedings, 21st Annual pp. 198-201, March 1981. Meeting, Transportation Research RGI (1982) Investing in the Rockies, Forum, 21 (1), 51-56. Railway Gazette International, pp. Lukasiewicz, J. (1981) Maintaining VIA 278-282, April 1982. Rail is a big expense for all Cana- SRI (1980) Railroad electrification in dians, The Globe and Mail, p. B.4, America's future: an assessment of 31 August 1981. prospects and impacts, Final Report, 141 pp and 16 pp, SRI Internation- Lukasiewicz, J. (1982) Passenger rail al, Menlo Park, California, January policy: A 82-Billion fiasco, Canadian 1980. Public Policy, 8 (3), Summer 1982. TRB (1977) Railroad electrification: the lGI (1980) Electrification: the work issues, Transportation Research has hardly started, Railway Gaz- Board, National Academy of Sci- ette International, pp. 38-41, Janu- ences, Special Report 180, 85 pp, ary 1980. Washington, D.C.