From the Chairman

PAUL KURTZ

New Departure for the

his issue of the SKEPTICAL The paradox is that at the same entific inquiry. Similarly, college and INQUIRER marks a new depar- time that science and technology con- university faculties, too many of which Tture for the Committee for the tinue to make progress, offering unpar- pander to every wave of intellectual Scientific Investigation of Claims of the alleled promises for the improvement fashion, often forget the need to edu- Paranormal, and it portends new oppor- of the human condition—in medical cate students about science and critical tunities for the growth of the skeptical and biogenetic research, computer thinking. movement worldwide. By expanding its technology, space exploration, and In any case, I would like to say frequency and providing a larger for- astronomy, to mention only a few of how pleased CSICOP is to present this mat, we hope to increase the readership the many frontiers of expanding new, expanded SKEPTICAL INQUIRER of the SKEPTICAL INQUIRER. These knowledge—the current of pseudosci- and to thank our indefatigable editor, changes have already translated into entific beliefs becomes stronger. Of , for all he has done to increased circulation—67,500 copies of particular concern is that the media of make this possible. this issue—primarily in bookstores and communications pander to public And clunk you, our readers, for on newsstands. But we need to intensi- gullibility and that the media con- helping to make the SKEPTICAL fy our efforts if we are to increase our glomerates are often more interested in INQUIRER and CSICOP so relevant and subscriber base. We hope that you—our entertainment than in conveying infor- vital. We have no governmental or loyal readers—will help us in this mation and knowledge to the public. foundation grants and no advertising regard, by getting your friends, col- revenue, and must depend on your leagues, relatives, and local libraries to We need to convince General continued encouragement and support, subscribe. You can also help us by per- Electric (which owns NBC), Rupert for which we are sincerely grateful. suading your bookstore or newsstand to Murdoch (Fox), Time-Warner, Viacom- carry the SKEPTICAL INQUIRER. Paramount, Bertelsmann, and the other multimedia corporations that European Council of The SKEPTICAL INQUIRER is control publishing, television, and unique. It has in its brief history motion pictures that their future, like Skeptical Organizations become the major scientific opposition ours, depends on the growth of science Established to the vast tide of paranormal and and technology and that they have a pseudoscientific claims that floods the responsibility to transmit to the gener- I recently attended, with Barry Karr, al public an understanding of the sci- larger culture. We still feel like a lone executive director of CSICOP, and entific outlook and the methods of sci- voice in the wilderness as we continue Executive Council member , to demand that these unexamined claims be tested. When CSICOP was founded 18 years ago, little did we imagine that it would receive such a positive reception from thoughtful persons in the scien- tific community and elsewhere who were skeptical of psychic phenomena, astrology, ufology, homeopathy, and the newer, bizarre beliefs of the New Age. Nor did we imagine that paranor- mal claims would continue to prolifer- ate throughout the world—from North America to Europe, from (left to right) Barry Karr, Tim Trachet, Ray Hyman, , and Cornells Australia to Asia and Africa. de Jager at the Sixth European Skeptics Conference.

SKEPTICAL INQUIRER • JANUARY/FEBRUARY 1995 3 the Sixth European Skeptics conference, Perhaps no inquiry has evoked percent. Champions, he alleged, were which was held in the beautiful Belgian more controversy between skeptics and born at approximately 22 percent in coastal city of Ostende. The main theme astrologers than the efforts by the scien- the first and fourth sectors. The Zelen of this conference was "Pseudoscience tific community to test the claims of test caused considerable controversy and the Environment." It was attended French authors Michel and Francoise about the interpretation of the results. by skeptics from all over Europe. Gauquelin. Although critics of tradition- Kurtz, Abell, and Zelen conceded pos- Virtually all of the major European al astrology, the Gauquelins claimed to sible errors in their interpretation, but countries now have skeptical organiza- have found a correlation between plane- they remained skeptical of the way the tions that publish newsletters and maga- tary positions, birth data, and personali- Gauquelins had conducted the test, since they had deviated from the pro- "The Gauquelins claimed to have found tocol. Inasmuch as the Gauquelins not only were the proposers of the hypoth- correlation between planetary positions, birth esis, but were responsible for assem- data, and personalites and achievements," bling the data, some question of bias in selecting the data could be raised, zines and attempt to provide evaluations ties and achievements. They claimed to Kurtz, Abell, and Zelen said. The of paranormal and pseudoscientific find correlations between Saturn and sci- major findings of the Mars effect were claims. Recognizing the similar problems entists, Jupiter and military men, Mars based on a European—primarily faced throughout Europe, and given the and sports champions, and so on. It is French—sample, most of the data hav- emergence of the European Parliament the Mars and sports champions hypoth- ing been compiled by the Gauquelins. and the European Commission, the deci- esis, for which the Gauquelins claimed Kurtz, Abell, and Zelen then pro- sion was made to form a "European to have found the highest correlation to posed an independent test of American Council of Skeptical Organizations" support their astrobiology, that has been champions. They conducted a test with a (ECSO). The group was officially inau- put to the test by various scientific sample of 408 champions and their find- gurated in the resplendent town hall with groups throughout the world. ings were reported in the SKEPTICAL the mayor of Ostende presiding. The Gauquelin had assembled data for INQUIRER (Winter 1979-80). The results president of ECSO is Cornelis de Jager, 2,088 sports champions in Europe, were negative, with only 13.5 percent the distinguished astronomer from the most of them in France. He divided being born in the first and fourth sectors. Netherlands. The key contact person in the sky into 12 sectors through which The Gauquelins immediately dis- Brussels will be Tim Trachet. CSICOP is Mars appears to pass as it orbits the puted these results, insisting that the glad to welcome ECSO as a vital mem- ber of the world skeptical community. sun. He claimed that sports champions Mars effect only applied to "the most were born in the first sector (when famous internationally recognized Mars is rising) and the fourth (its cul- champions" and that these were not French Committee mination) beyond chance expectations. sufficiently represented in the In 1967 the Para Committee in American test sample. Analyzing the Announces Results of Belgium carried out a test of 535 sports data post hoc, they claimed to find a Test of the So-Called champions. Gauquelin maintained smaller sample with significant results. Mars Effect that the results were positive for the Kurtz, Abell, and Zelen contested their "Mars effect," but the Para Committee claims, maintaining that their own At the European Skeptics Conference, the claimed that the results were ambigu- sample of sports champions was select- French Committee for the Study of Para- ous, for three reasons: (1) although the ed from the major Who's Whos of sports normal Phenomena (CFEPP) announced key sectors came out as Gauquelin had champions in the United States. the tentative results of its effort to rep- predicted, the remaining ten sectors In 1979 Michel Gauquelin at- licate the "Mars effect." A paper was read by were not what chance or Gauquelin tempted still another replication, with Jean-Paul Krivine outlining these results.* had predicted, and therefore (2) a bias 438 European sports champions, claim- may have crept into the data selection. ing again to find significant results, "Members of the French Committee who Finally (3), the key sector results may although Kurtz, Abell, and Zelen point- worked on this report were Claude Benski, Dominique Caudron, Yves Galifret, Jean-Paul have been due to a random fluctuation ed out that he did not use the same cri- Krivine. Jean-Claude Pecker. Michel Rouze. and in the theoretical curve. teria in the French study as he had Evry Schatzman. Marvin Zelen, now a professor of insisted upon in the American study. statistics at Harvard, proposed a test of Gauquelin said that he had deleted 423 Paul Kurtz, professor emeritus of philoso- nonchampions in 1976 to test for "lesser" champions from his study. The phy at the State University of New York the third of the three objections. key issue turned on who was "famous" at Buffalo, is founding chairman of the Gauquelin performed the experiment or "lesser." Moreover, the arbitrary crite- Committee for the Scientific Investi- and reported that nonchampions were gation of Claims of the Parnormal. born at about the chance rate of 17.17 Chairman continued on page 62

4 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER • JANUARY/FEBRUARY 1995 Radioisotopes from page 40 ation is used to develop new plant chemical makeup. Thus the works of types to speed up the process of devel- famous painters can be "fingerprinted" in human cervix-cancer therapy. oping superior agricultural products. so as to detect the work of forgers. The applications of radioisotopes in Insect control is another important Many old photographs thought to be industry are numerous. Among these application; pest populations are dras- beyond saving have been restored to a are: in manufacturing, for highly sen- tically reduced and, in some cases, remarkable degree through the applica- sitive gauges to measure the thickness eliminated by exposing male insects to tion of the neutron activation process. and density of numerous materials and sterilizing doses of radiation. Fertilizer It is important to emphasize that to inspect finished goods for weakness consumption is reduced through there is in this country a growing ten- and flaws; in the automobile industry, research with radioactive tracers. dency toward a hysterical reaction to to test steel quality in the manufacture Radiation pellets are used in grain ele- anything labeled "radioactive." The of cars and to obtain the proper thick- vators to kill insects and rodents. Department of Energy hotline, estab- ness of tin and aluminum; in the air- Irradiation prolongs the shelf-life of lished to gather information on possi- craft industry, to check for flaws in jet foods by destroying bacteria, viruses, ble victims of "radiation experiments," engines; with construction crews, to and molds. received a deluge of calls, many from gauge the density of road surfaces and The useful application of radioiso- citizens convinced they had been "poi- subsurfaces; for pipeline companies, to topes extends to the arts and humani- soned" by beneficial, standard diagnos- test the strength of welds; for oil, gas, ties. Neutron activation analysis is tic and therapeutic nuclear medicine. and mining companies, to map the extremely useful in identifying the Radioisotopes have alleviated suffer- contours of test wells and mine bores; chemical elements present in coins, ing and prolonged the lives of millions and for cosmetic companies, to sterilize pottery, and other artifacts from the of human beings and contributed pro- their products. past. A tiny unnoticeable fleck of paint ductively in many other ways. These In addition, there are manifold uses from an art treasure or a microscopic beneficial contributions will continue in agriculture. In plant research, radi- grain of pottery suffices to reveal its and expand in the years ahead.

Chairman from page 4 When Gauquelin was asked to committed suicide on May 20, 1991, comment, at the end of the data-gath- with instructions, according to Suitbert ria were sometimes so narrow as to limit ering phase, he wrote several letters in Ertel, that all of his data be destroyed. It the sample to a very small number of 1990 and 1991 to the Committee has been difficult to corroborate Ertel's sports champions. again disputing the sample. He pro- claim. Ertel also asked die CFEPP to use Since an impasse had been reached, posed corrections of the data of 39 his own "eminence" criteria to analyze it was proposed that an independent champions (increasing the number of the data; that is, to determine the fame French Committee of skeptics (CFEPP) athletes born in key sectors from 1 to of the athletes by reference to the num- cooperate with Gauquelin to retest the 20 in this group); he offered the ber of citations they had in sports direc- French sample using the most rigorous Committee 79 names of athletes whose tories. But since this was not within the criteria and assembling the data on their data the Committee had unsuccessful- original published protocol, the French own. The protocol was published in ly tried to find (32 of these were born Committee decided not to do so. Science el Vie in October 1982. There with Mars in key sectors); he main- However, Jan Willem Nienhuys, a were numerous problems in developing tained that another 39 athletes satisfied Dutch investigator who reviewed the the test, and it has taken 12 years to com- the selection criteria but were nonethe- entire French study, maintained at the plete it. The Committee used a key source- less overlooked by the Committee. Of Euroskeptics conference that Ertel's book suggested by sports writers for these 39, 23 were mentioned already in "eminence" criteria, which he analyzed, determining the "famous" sports champi- a 1955 publication by Gauquelin or did not validate the Mars effect. ons: 77*- Dictionary of Sports. They added were in the Para study, and 9 of these These and additional data are now L'athlege upon the recommendation of were in a key sector. He also requested being reviewed and are open to modifica- Gauquelin. The announced results were that 16 names (none with Mars in key tion. The report of the French Committee negative, with 18.76 percent (200) of the sectors) be deleted. The committee comprises 110 pages. 1,066 champions showing Mars in the first observed that by attempting to add or will publish it as a monograph. (To order and fourth sectors, whereas a hypothetical delete from the sample, Gauquelin a copy of The "Mars Effect": French Test population derived from a random redis- was, in effect, biasing the results. of More Than 1,000 Sports Champions, tribution of these champions shows 18.2 Indeed, the committee concluded that write to Prometheus Books, 59 John percent. The French Committee conclud- the "Mars effect" may be attributed pri- Glenn Drive, Amherst NY 14228-2917. ed that their efforts at independent replica- marily to Gauquelin's selective bias. The charge is $2395, including postage tion show no evidence for the Mars effect. Unfortunately, Michel Gauquelin and handling.)

62 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER • JANUARY/FEBRUARY 1995