BAKER INSTITUTE STUDY

PUBLISHED BY THE JAMES A. BAKER III INSTITUTE FOR PUBLIC POLICY AT RICE UNIVERSITY

NO.20 DECEMBER 2002

SPACE: A CRITICAL ISSUES WORKSHOP REFLECTIONS ON THE PAST AND CONCERNS FOR THE FUTURE

September 12, 1962, was a warm, humid day in That was 40 years ago. This year not only marks . In spite of the temperature and only the that anniversary but also the 30th anniversary of hint of a breeze, there was a large crowd seated in man’s last voyage beyond orbit. Much has Rice University’s football stadium waiting to hear transpired in those 30 years. The United States con- John F. Kennedy, then in the second year of his pres- tinued to make advances in space and in technolo- idency, talk about issues. His speech gy after the Apollo program came to an end with turned out to be a memorable one. In May 1961, a the splashdown of the command module in the few months after his inauguration, he told a special Pacific on December 19, 1972. But with all these joint session of Congress about his dramatic and advancements, none have had the significance of ambitious goal of sending an American safely to the the landing on the Moon. The challenge of going to Moon before the end of the decade. His announce- the Moon served to provide excitement for a whole ment was made nine months before an American generation of young Americans, inspiring them to had even orbited the Earth. and pursue careers in science and engineering and to Friendship 7’s three-orbit flight, after a number of dream of becoming . The investments delays, took place in February 1962. Kennedy clear- made in research within the nation’s universities ly recognized the significance of his announcement and the technology derived from Apollo provided and declared his decision in 1961 to “shift our the foundation for many U.S. technological efforts in space from low to high gear as among the achievements over these past 40 years. Apollo most important decisions that will be made during became a veritable incubator—for new ideas, new my incumbency in the office of the Presidency.” skills, and new knowledge. We have literally seen Kennedy’s speech took place in the city that was the fulfillment of the prophecy the young president the new home of the National Aeronautics and made that day in Rice Stadium: “The growth of our Space Administration’s (NASA) Manned Spacecraft science and education will be enriched by new Center. The president emphasized the importance knowledge of our universe and environment, by of going to the Moon, and his words would be long new techniques of learning and mapping and remembered, not only by those sitting in the heat of observation, by new tools and computers for indus- that September day but also by a whole nation. “We try, medicine, the home, as well as the school. choose to go to the Moon in this decade and do the Technical institutions…will reap the harvest of other things, not because they are easy, but because these gains.” they are hard, because that goal will serve to organ- The intervening years since Apollo have brought ize and measure the best of our energies and skills, dramatic changes to the aerospace industry that because that challenge is one that we are willing to took America to the Moon. Having contributed sig- accept, one we are unwilling to postpone, and one nificantly to U.S. technical advancements, the which we intend to win, and the others, too.” industry has changed significantly since the 1950s

1 and 1960s. In those days, a significant number of nership made up of the European Space Agency, companies competed fiercely for the design, devel- Canada, Japan, Russia, Brazil, and Italy. opment, and production of space systems and com- Representatives of the two major Cold War adver- ponents. In the years since, companies such as saries, the United States and Russia, now make up Grumman, McDonnell Douglas, North American the crew of the International Space Station, work- Aviation (later Rockwell), and General Dynamics ing together with control centers in Moscow and have disappeared or have merged with other com- Houston as one team. The American aerospace panies. Responding to economic forces and the industry has also formed very effective partnerships end of the Cold War, the aerospace industry has internationally—Lockheed Martin with Khrunichev consolidated, reducing the number of major system in Russia for a successful launch vehicle program contractors to only two, three, or at best, four. and Boeing with Energia in Russia with the innova- Faced with major international competition, the tive and successful Sea Launch program. Boeing’s end of the Cold War, and declining research and 777 aircraft program, with major components made development budgets, the health of the industry is throughout the world, is a model for international a major concern. Responding to this concern, cooperation. Major enterprises have clearly benefit- Congress in 2001 created the Commission on the ed from international partnerships with shared Future of the United States Aerospace Industry, costs, contributions, and profits. charged with reviewing the state of the industry and It was against this background that the Baker recommending requisite action to reestablish world Institute held a workshop on May 6 and 7, 2002, to leadership in this critical industry. The commis- consider these various issues as well as their impli- sion’s report is due in November 2002. cations for the nation’s economy. The state of the The critical element of the Apollo program and aerospace industry, the crisis with regards to educa- all subsequent technical achievements is the tion in science and engineering, international human element, the one element that will continue cooperation, and their implications on the econo- to be the most important factor in assuring this my were discussed by three groups of panelists dur- nation’s global technological leadership. The avail- ing this May workshop. ability of a well-educated and well-trained human The moderators for the workshop were Dr. resource is dependent on this country’s education- Eugene Levy, provost of Rice University, and Dr. al system, and the state of our educational system is Neal Lane, senior fellow at the Baker Institute, a cause for serious concern. Analysis by the University Professor at Rice University, and former National Science Foundation shows that university presidential science advisor. Participants included enrollment in engineering and science has been industry executives Michael I. Mott, vice president going down throughout the ’80s and ’90s and the and general manager of Human Space Flight and proportion of men is continuing to decrease. Exploration for the Boeing Company, and Al Ethnic minorities, who traditionally have not cho- Smith, executive vice president of Lockheed Martin sen technical careers, are becoming the majority Space Systems Company. Former industry leaders demographic groups in a number of regions who played key roles in Apollo and the space shut- throughout the United States. Clearly, improving tle program and in the Russian human space flight the education of all members of the younger gen- program and robotic missions were also partici- eration and encouraging young people to study pants. They included George Jeffs, corporate vice mathematics, science, and engineering are impera- president and president of the Aerospace and tive for the nation’s future well-being. Energy Divisions for Rockwell International, and The last 30 years have also seen great changes in Dr. Roald Sagdeev, former director of the Space how the United States implements its space pro- Research Institute of the Soviet Union. Astronauts grams. The International Space Station program, who played key roles in past and present space for example, is being managed by the United flight activities were also panelists. These included States, but with major contributions from a part- John W. Young, veteran of six space flight missions

2 (including two to the Moon and commander of the The present state of the aerospace industry was first shuttle mission); William Shepherd, com- the subject of considerable discussion at the work- mander of the first International Space Station shop. The importance to the country of maintain- crew; James Adamson, a veteran of two space flights ing the vitality of the industry cannot be overem- and former group vice president and general man- phasized. The government needs to assess consoli- ager of Lockheed Martin Engineering and dation in light of maintaining this vitality as well as Sciences; Dr. George Nelson, veteran and examining U.S. educational systems and universi- director of the Science, Mathematics, and ties because of the critical role they play in main- Technology Education Program at Western taining this vitality. The relationship and effect of Washington University; General Jean-Loup the industry on the country’s economy was Chrétien, veteran French astronaut (his flights reviewed historically as well from today’s and included two flights with Russia and a tomorrow’s perspectives. The industry and the mission); General Joseph Engle, veteran astronaut economy go hand and hand, and the future of each and key member of the Russian and United States is dependent on the other. The importance of inter- Space Flight Advisory group; and Dr. James national cooperation, as well as international com- Newman, a U.S. astronaut just completing his petition, must be recognized and balanced as fourth flight, a successful servicing mission of the industry and the nation look to the future. Hubble Space Telescope. Maintaining our international partnerships and Other panelists included noted educators from a alliances affects the vitality of the industry, the U.S. number of universities: Dr. James J. Papike, Regents economy, and U.S. national security. The nation has Professor in the Department of Earth and Planetary benefited from the vision and investments made Sciences and director of the Institute of Meteorites after World War II and during the Cold War. The at the University of New Mexico; Dr. Elaine world has and will change. It will again require Seymour, director of ethnography and evaluation vision and enlightened leadership if the nation is to research for the Bureau of Sociological Research at be successful in maintaining its role as a world the University of Colorado; Dr. Leon T. Silver, W.M. leader. Keck Foundation Professor for Resource Geology at The Congress, as was previously mentioned, has the California Institute of Technology; Dr. Richard established a commission to review the state of the Tapia, professor of computational and applied U.S. aerospace industry and will recommend the mathematics and associate director of graduate actions that should be taken to ensure continued studies at Rice University; Dr. Karl Doetsch, presi- U.S. world leadership. The commission’s report will dent of the International Space University; Dr. be published in November of this year. Its interim John Logsdon, director of the Space Policy Institute reports and the workshop’s conclusions seem to be at George Washington University; and Dr. Douglas in agreement. Duncan of the Department of Astronomy and The commission’s interim report recommends Astrophysics and assistant director of humanities, that immediate steps be taken to address issues vital arts, and sciences at the Graham School of the to the health of the industry. It recognized that University of Chicago. Dr. Ray Marshall, former today’s challenging business environment has jeop- U.S. secretary of labor and professor emeritus of ardized the nation’s ability to sustain critical design the Lyndon B. Johnson School of Public Affairs at and manufacturing capabilities and expertise. In the University of Texas at Austin, also served as one the area of space infrastructure, the report states of the distinguished panelists. that the government needs to prioritize its require- The results of the workshop, which appear to be ments and seek new ways to manage them. It found consonant with advice coming to policy makers that federal aerospace spending is spread across from other quarters as well, have been summarized multiple government agency budgets with oversight by Dr. Robert Oliver of Rice University’s Space by numerous congressional committees. This has Institute as a part of this report. led to a situation where none of the various gov-

3 ernment groups has an integrated view of the state However, it must be acknowledged that, as in all of the nation’s aerospace industry and its related human activities, patterns of participation are com- activities, and there is a lack of White House plicated and strikingly varied. The exploration of involvement to provide such a perspective. The space is still an area very much dominated by coun- commission also feels that the aerospace sector is tries of the “First World.” Indeed, within this group the victim of an educational system that needs to be one country, the United States, has an overwhelm- dramatically improved, especially in the science, ingly dominant presence at the moment. By at least math, and engineering disciplines. some ways of estimation, American activities The present situation does not bode well for account for some 70 percent of all space explo- America. Today, the nation is fighting a war against ration and operations.1 Even within the group of terrorists. The success of this war depends on our countries that support space activity, motivations international partnerships and alliances. At the and goals vary sharply. As the American experience same time, the United States is faced with a troubled clearly demonstrates, companies, interest groups, economy. Once before when the nation was faced and individuals within a given country can be with similar and perhaps even greater problems, a sharply divided by different needs, aspirations, and challenge was made, a challenge to the nation: land outlooks. a man on the Moon by decade’s end. The nation This pattern becomes even more complicated as benefited from that challenge and its successful ful- the rapidly changing status of Earth’s population, fillment many times over during this past 40 years. demographics, economy, and politics are taken into The present problem is daunting: it is both a nation- account. Population increases, although falling in al one and international one. History could well terms of growth rates, nevertheless promise great provide a solution. strains on the planet’s resources, especially in coun- tries that can least afford such strains. In many nations, perhaps particularly America, demograph- THE STATE OF SPACE ic trends herald major shifts in population makeup The modern world has many roots, but one of the in the midterm, thus promising changes in the most important goes back to 1776 when a Scottish political terrain. Finally, the rapid rise of new eco- scholar named Adam Smith published a book called nomic players, particularly the People’s Republic of The Wealth of Nations and thus signaled the arrival of China, will greatly affect patterns of wealth and modern capitalism. From its very beginning, the poverty. Indeed, the entry of China also heralds a capitalist system has assumed an intricate and indis- shift in the pattern of space activity, as the Chinese soluble web of material connections binding are dedicated to entering the “space race” with together the peoples of the Earth. As we enter the major manned missions in the near future. All of 21st century, that lesson is becoming easier and eas- these factors argue that the time to seriously con- ier to grasp. Scarcely a day goes by without some sider matters of mutual need, profit, and long-term pointed reminder that the entire globe is becoming relationships is at hand. rapidly interconnected in ways and degrees that Nevertheless, despite this manifest and ever- would have seemed unthinkable even a mere 15 increasing diversity, the world aerospace sector in years ago. Even as the world is more tightly bound general, and the space subsector in particular, must together, the pressing necessities that lead outward still be viewed in the context of American domi- from the Earth into space are becoming more nance. This leadership position of the United States acute. Need for economic expansion, new technol- in the post–World War II world has sprung histori- ogy, and new frontiers of adventure and imagina- cally from many factors. However, without a doubt, tion all point into space. The economic stakes are one of the most crucial roots of American leader- important, indeed crucial, to the prosperity, and maybe the survival, of humanity. And the need for 1 Karl Doetsch, President, International Space University. joint efforts to secure these stakes is critical. 7 May 2002.

4 ship over the last half of the 20th century and into tant to emphasize crosscutting issues that connect the first part of the 21st has been American techno- aerospace endeavors to the more general spheres of logical superiority. This factor is absolutely central business, government, military affairs, and scientific to American economic, political, military, and enterprise. diplomatic power. In the present world, technologi- The main issues facing space exploration, colo- cal leadership is more crucial than ever for the nization, and science are: United States as it strives to maintain and exercise • General imperatives for space exploration, espe- its position of leadership for the good both of its cially pressing economic needs; own citizens and its allies. • Obstacles to investment in space, including a The aerospace sector has played an enormous political environment of decreased funding and role in the development and maintenance of sharply increased competition among interest America’s technological edge. Developments in groups, along with organizational problems aerospace science and engineering have been stemming from low prioritizing of space activi- absolutely central in American military strength, ties by some national governments and self- national prestige, economic growth, diplomatic defeating organizational practices in private influence, and political stability. It is, in fact, not an industry; exaggeration to state that the aerospace sector pro- • The importance of space for security and coop- vided the key area of struggle between the United eration in terms of economics, military affairs, States and the Soviet Union through the height of and civil security; the Cold War. It was a Soviet challenge in the area of • A crisis of human capital arising from a declin- aerospace that led, in large part, to the massive ing interest in science and engineering, demo- restructuring of American industry and academics graphic shifts of the population that have been that characterized the 1950s and 1960s. It was in the poorly handled, and some dysfunctional aspects arena of aerospace, that is of ballistic missiles and of science teaching traditions; and nuclear bomb technology, where much of the Cold • The loss of historical memory in large organiza- War arms race played out. It was in the area of outer tions, combined with a failure to involve appro- space in particular where the two Cold War combat- priate actors in matters of planning, policy, and ants staged their most spectacular displays of tech- design. nological prowess and national pride. Many of the political developments of the 1980s and early 1990s—the end of the Cold War, the collapse of I. GENERAL AND ECONOMIC AND Soviet Communism in Europe, and the fall of the POLITICAL IMPERATIVES Soviet Union itself—came about in large part due to the immense financial and technical strain of a A. The Pressing Economic Need for Space large-scale aerospace arms race. Exploration Therefore, our discussions of the current state of The intense economic challenges that are even space science and space activities must play out on now facing the world constitute a slow simmering two levels. First, aerospace science, technology, and (and in some areas a boiling) crisis, and many fac- economics are absolutely crucial for the world econ- tors will get worse in the easily foreseeable future. omy and the world systems of scientific exploration Already the world supports some six billion people, and collective security. On the other hand, one projected to grow to eight billion by the middle of must recognize that the activities of the United this century. Of those six billion only 2.5 billion, or States in the aerospace venue provide the core of approximately 42 percent, are gainfully employed.2 energy, resources, and leadership upon which the Considering that most of the gain in population greater world aerospace effort relies. Moreover, over the next 50 years will be in the poorest coun- aerospace activities are not isolated from their envi- ronment. When examining these issues, it is impor- 2 Ibid.

5 tries, this ratio will tend to grow steadily worse. In well. The economy of the United States during the addition, there is even now an acute shortage of post–World War II era has been one of the wonders shelter, food, water, energy, health resources, and of modern history. From 1945 forward, and partic- educational opportunities in much of the world. ularly following the close of the Korean War in These shortages will also grow increasingly dire as 1953, the American economy has expanded to a population mounts. phenomenal extent. This expansion has many Space activities have great promise to help allevi- roots. The pressing need for goods and services in ate these problems. While it is true that no single war-shattered European and Asian countries fueled solution offers a magic answer to the world’s demo- much of the early growth, as did the Servicemen’s graphic dilemma, space is an area that is greatly Readjustment Act of 1944, popularly known as the underdeveloped and where one can reasonably GI Bill. The latter, passed almost as an afterthought, expect large multipliers for wise investment. For made funds available to veterans for educational instance, space activities now employ about 400,000 purposes and turned out to be one of the most suc- people worldwide, a tiny sector compared to agri- culture (1.1 billion), services (0.8 billion), and cessful pieces of legislation in American history. industry (0.5 billion).3 Considering such possibly Powered by a flood of GI students, as well as profitable activities as space manufacturing, space increased government spending on research as the tourism, and space-based information systems, Cold War progressed (and especially in the wake of space represents an area of economic activity Sputnik), American universities blossomed, becom- nowhere close to saturation in terms of employ- ing the leaders of the world in terms of research ment. It is a rare example of an economic sector and graduate education. where investment could quite possibly lead to reli- Following a brief period of stagnation in the wake able large-scale expansion of available jobs for some of the Arab oil crisis and the Vietnam debacle, the time to come. United States economy entered into another peri- Similarly, space activities account for $1 in every od of spectacular growth. Over the last 20 years, $330 of the world economy.4 Once again, given the however, this growth has largely been powered not arguable potential of many profit-generating activi- by large-scale demand, but by increases in produc- ties in space, the room for expansion of the space tivity.6 This productivity is largely an outgrowth of sector in terms of productivity and revenue genera- technological progress, in its turn a product of the tion is vast. expanded research and development environment Many of the predictions concerning profit-gener- of the last half-century. ating activity in space can be bolstered by impres- The importance of strong, stable research and sive historical precedent. Space is already the site development activity in the American economy is of a satellite-based telecommunications industry hard to overstate. The specific historical circum- worth $28.9 billion per year. Indeed, even given the stances that led to the immediate post–World War current low level of general spending on space, II economic boom were extremely idiosyncratic space activities have spurred the development of an and unlikely ever to be repeated. As the economies infrastructure worth some $53.6 billion.5 Although of Asia develop, particularly those of China and it is true that the highly profitable business of satellite-based telecommunications has probably India, their large populations and vast potential for reached market saturation for the moment, rapid internal development will almost certainly lead advances in satellite technology promise new uses them, especially China, past the United States in and opportunities in the near future. terms of gross domestic product (GDP) in the fore- seeable future. The only source of superiority cur- B. Space Exploration and the American Economy 3 Ibid. In addition to the pressing international eco- 4 Ibid. 5 nomic issues that drive toward an expansion of Ibid. 6 Ray Marshall, Former United States Secretary of Labor, space activity, particular features of the United Professor Emeritus, Lyndon B. Johnson School of Public States domestic economy point in that direction as Affairs, University of Texas at Austin. 7 May 2002. 6 rently available to the United States in terms of the it is usually understood, is less than one hundred world economy is a technological edge that is being years old, having begun with the famous Kitty Hawk challenged by Europe and Japan and will soon be flight of Orville and Wilbur Wright on December challenged by China as well. Without the research 17, 1903.9 During its growth and development, it and development necessary to maintain that edge, has undergone many changes and even radical the United States’s position as the world’s leading shifts. Therefore, whatever the short- and long-term power will be in grave jeopardy. effects of the current events, one must keep in Research is important for reasons much more mind that the aerospace enterprise and particular- profound than the creation of particular products ly the private industry of aerospace, like any intel- or even specific classes of technology. Any intense lectual or economic area, cannot be expected to be research effort will result in habits of thinking, immune from change, even drastic change. behaving, and organizing work. These patterns, During the early stages of the aerospace enter- identified by former U.S. secretary of labor Ray prise, that is to say the early part of the 20th centu- Marshall as “ideas, skills, and knowledge,”7 may be ry, the development of aerospace technology in applied to endeavors far removed from their origi- America was tied intimately to the military, which nal frameworks. For instance, the ideas, skills, and knowledge that entered the culture and economy utilized an “arsenal” system. Under this regime, the of the United States during the computer revolu- government in the form of the military appropria- tion have been successfully transferred to rapid tions, research, and engineering systems assumed advances in communications, transportation, orga- majority leadership for both technological develop- nizational theory, military applications, virtual real- ment and operations. Although restrictive, this sys- ity technology, mathematical modeling, data analy- tem clearly assigned risks and benefits, both of sis, and too many other areas to list. Any research which were owned by the government.10 However, and development activity, but particularly those on with the coming of the Cold War, a major shift the cutting edge, involves returns to human capital occurred from an arsenal to a contractor system. 8 far in excess of returns to physical capital. Under this new organizational paradigm, the con- Unfortunately, this fact is widely unappreciated. tractors, that is to say private industry, assumed The economic multipliers gained from ideas, skills, much of the financial and technical risk.11 In fair- and knowledge—while intuitively and almost ness, private industry also achieved new opportuni- undoubtedly vast—are very difficult to measure compared to multipliers gained from the mundane ty for the generation of profit. Also, much of the and specific applications of particular products and research that fueled technological innovation in technologies. This largely explains the sad, but well- this period came from academic laboratories. documented tendency of government and corpora- Under new systems of research funding, systems tions to undervalue research and development that had first been proposed by Vannevar Bush in activity and make it the frequent target of budget his famous monograph Science, The Endless Frontier, cuts, often with the excuse that the economic ben- funding for university-based research activities in efit or profitability of such work is difficult to estab- lish. 7 Ibid. 8 Ibid. C. Organizational Problems within the 9 As a matter of historical interpretation, one could of course Aerospace Industry make arguments for much earlier development of the aero- Undoubtedly, one of the aspects of the modern space industry. Balloons, for instance, played a role in aerospace enterprise that catches the eye on even a artillery spotting and triangulation during the American Civil War. Nevertheless, in that most of the modern aero- casual survey is the large-scale change in organiza- space industry relies upon technology that grows out of tional structure, particularly in the private industry heavier-than-air flight, the 1903 date is immanently defensi- area, that has occurred in the recent past. However, ble. 10 Michael I. Mott, Vice President and General Manager of this change, striking as it is, must be understood in Human Space Flight and Exploration, Boeing Company. 6 the context of the overall history of the American May 2002. aerospace enterprise. The aerospace enterprise, as 11 Ibid. 7 both science and engineering mushroomed.12 In indeed complicate management strategy, projec- the wake of the Sputnik crisis of 1957, this trend tion of management intentions through the various accelerated dramatically, fueling a radical shift in levels and divisions of a large company is by no academic culture and organization. means easy or assured.16 Often the result is the de However, this organizational model sprang from facto growth of “phantom corporations” within the the needs of the Cold War. It is therefore not par- existing entities. That is to say that the difficulty of ticularly surprising that the end of intense communications and control leads to the evolution American–Soviet rivalry also undermined the con- of localized command structures with their own sensus for such a state of industrial affairs. Two seniorities and hierarchies. These structures often trends have dominated the private aerospace indus- have priorities, traditions, and concerns that are try in the past decade. The first is major consolida- different from those of the company as a whole. tion. Under the Clinton administration, the Indeed, it is not uncommon for localized “phantom Department of Defense, then led by former con- corporations” to work at cross-purposes to the wish- gressman Les Aspin, initiated a policy of encourag- es of formal management. Although phantoms may ing large-scale mergers in the American aerospace be a useful short-term adaptation to realities of pro- corporate sector. This was greatly aided by an eco- duction pressure and difficult communications, the nomic climate that had already set in motion a ris- long-term challenges this poses to management are ing tide of consolidation in many areas, perhaps extreme. most notably the commercial air-travel industry. Perhaps more importantly from the view of the The simplification, in terms of players, in the health of the entire American aerospace enterprise, American aerospace industry has been “dracon- the consolidation of the private aerospace industry ic.”13 From an arena marked by several key con- has generally reduced the base of support for cer- tenders, the industry has, in terms of major systems tain key activities, especially outer-space initiatives. and vehicle developers, been reduced to a few The Apollo program, for instance, involved, at major companies dominated by two members, some level, approximately 420,000 people.17 More Boeing Company and Lockheed Martin Company. important than the absolute numbers, however, was This consolidation was undertaken in an attempt the fact that these people were distributed among to improve management efficiency and streamline many different industries, companies, and geo- systems of communication, planning, and procure- graphic areas. Thus these 420,000 produced a “mul- ment. In some sense, this has happened, with a tiplier” of support by involving important bulk seg- marked decrease in the overall “lumpiness” of the ments of the economy and body politic in the space industry.14 In terms of contracting, the American effort. In the context of two larger “super-compa- aerospace industry is now characterized by dramat- nies” and a reduced number of subcontractors, ically fewer “primes” and “subs.”15 However, the such multipliers are much harder to attain. This effect of this on profitability, particularly in terms of occurs precisely at a time when increasing diversity some sectors such as airframe manufacture, has not of the population and proliferating political and been favorable. Indeed, in terms of airframes, the economic challenges make the garnering of such main result seems to have been a spur to European industry to effect its own consolidation. The result, 12 Vannevar Bush, Science, the Endless Frontier. A Report to the Airbus, has proven to be a formidable competitor President by Vannevar Bush, Director of the Office of Scientific research and Development. July 1945. (Washington, D.C.: Office and is making large-scale inroads in the airframe of Scientific Research and Development, 1945). market. 13 Eugene H. Levy, Provost, Rice University. 6 May 2002. The consolidation has had other negative 14 George Jeffs, Corporate Vice President and President, impacts. By creating two very large corporations, it Aerospace and Energy Divisions, Rockwell International (Retired). 6 May 2002. has nurtured new management challenges even 15 Ibid. while alleviating some of the old ones. Although 16 Ibid. dealing with numerous separate corporations does 17 Ibid.

8 bulk segment support absolutely crucial for any more immediately profitable undertakings such as large space initiative. airframe manufacture and satellite systems opera- Finally, the large-scale consolidation has had the tion. This creates an environment for space activity inevitable result of reducing competition. Although and research and development undertakings in this might create, in the short term, a more com- which these functions face very thin financial mar- fortable atmosphere for corporate management in gins and are tied strongly to patterns of govern- the aerospace sector, in the long run the decline of mental expenditure that have not been steady or competition in a capitalist system of political econ- dependable in the recent past. In fact, the specific omy leads unavoidably to stagnation. Given the fact procurements for space activities have fallen rather that, as detailed below, reductions in real govern- steadily as a portion of general government ment funding make concerns about marketing and research and development expenditures. To make cost crucial to the modern American aerospace matters worse, these divisions generally face a high industry, any move toward stagnation bodes ill for debt load. the health of the industry over the mid and long In conclusion, the trends in industry organiza- term. tion over the last few years have not been favorable The second major trend to affect the American for the aerospace enterprise, particularly space ini- aerospace industry in the recent past is the shifting tiatives. The industry consolidation into a few com- pattern of government priorities. With the end of panies with two major players has brought some the Cold War and the decline of a sense of external measure of efficiency in management and procure- threat, support for many aerospace activities, most ment practices at the high cost of decreased com- notably the manned space program, has declined petition and decreased ability to generate a support relative to pressing concerns in other areas. Over base for new activity in space science and - the last few years, support for research and devel- ing. Downward trends in government funding, opment in aerospace for military applications has aggravated by the management and organizational declined 45 percent in real terms, while the practices of the companies themselves, have tended research and development funds allotted to the to place space activities and engineering research National Aeronautics and Space Administration and development in a severely unfavorable finan- (NASA) have declined by 18 percent in real dol- cial position. These factors must be addressed lars.18 With this decline has come an emphasis on before any kind of new space initiatives dependent stringent justification of expenditures and a on private industry—which any new space initia- demand for tangible benefits from a given project. tives would inevitably be—can hope to thrive. Government has entered into an era of passing functions to industry while making stern cost-saving D. Politics, Policy, and Competition demands that mean most increases in efficiency are The termination of the National Space Council is passed directly back to the funding agency. a troubling development. The council, chaired by Although there is some hope that the aftereffects of the vice president, provided the American space the September 11 events may lead to rethinking of enterprise with a high profile locus in the heart of these policies in the long term, it is much too early executive decision-making. Although it is true that to make any predictions.19 the council did not reverse the problematic trends The private aerospace industry has increased the in both government and industry that have led to problems inherent in these policies through its own severe pressures on the space enterprise, the organizational decisions. In keeping with modern absence of such an institutionalized place in the management practices that emphasize the organi- highest levels of government planning cannot be a zation of all functions into defined profit centers, helpful situation. Its dissolution, part of a series of both Boeing and Lockheed Martin have segregated their space activities and engineering research and 18 Michael I. Mott. 6 May, 2002. development into corporate units separate from 19 Ibid.

9 steps to downsize the White House support system, A unique example is the fact that , was perhaps a very good example of economizing Mike Collins, and had to pass through interfering with good functioning.20 Although its immigration as part of their return from the functions still exist in the Office of Science and Moon.21 More prosaically, the issue of technology Technology Policy (OSTP), it is doubtful that this transfer looms large. In an environment where pri- office, facing its own downsizing problems, can give vatization of space activity has achieved the level of space initiatives the attention they deserve and a mantra, systems for transferring key technology require. from government to private hands are extremely In this climate of troubling loss of profile for underdeveloped.22 Also underdeveloped is a gov- space activities, there is also renewed pressure ernmental understanding of the needs of private for privatization of many space operations. industry, particularly the problems associated with Unfortunately, in this area, basic economic struc- generating acceptable profits from space activity. tures pose very large problems. Private industry is Another problem exists in the area of global tech- understandably quite skeptical about possibilities nology sharing. In order to build successful space for profit in many space operations at this time. The industries and profitable space activities, it is neces- industry is in fact squeezed by foreign competition sary to build an international network of players. in areas already privatized, particularly missile Only when that network is in place will a functional launch. Due to many factors, most especially high system of resource providers and market distribu- American labor costs, Boeing and Lockheed Martin tors appear. However, American export regulations find themselves increasingly unable to compete are intimately tied to issues other than those of internationally with the European Space Agency business and economics. Particularly, ideology, cul- (ESA) or Russian launch vehicles. With the devel- tural shibboleths, and frank nationalism often inter- opment of Chinese capabilities, the future looks as fere with rational export policies. The recent move if it will include more such competition, not less. of export control oversight from the Department of The American space enterprise now must deal Commerce to the Department of State underscores with a set of problems coming from the particular this tendency.23 political and economic framework within which it A factor that stymies efforts to overcome these dif- must operate. Although there is increasing recogni- ficulties is the lack of practical political savvy one tion of the value of space-based activity in econom- finds evident in many discussions about space poli- ic, military, and security terms, much of the public cy. Missing from many discussions are realistic and the government remains ill informed in these appraisals of the fact that both export controls and areas. Downgrading of space activity in the govern- funding decisions arise from a political environ- ment hierarchy, especially the dissolution of the ment that is subject to many conflicting forces. Any National Space Council in 1993, has weakened the attempt to correct policy requires the willingness to prestige of space activity and the ability of leaders in delve into the often-confusing realm of day-to-day this area to access the highest areas of government. politics. For instance, as important as symbolic Finally, movement towards privatization raises many organizational moves—such as reestablishment of questions, particularly in a context of stiff interna- the National Space Council—may be in the long tional competition in which American products and run, they cannot produce actual results unless they services already find themselves at a disadvantage. are energized by constant political action.

E. Obstacles to Increased Investment Unfortunately, expanded investment in space 20 Neal Lane, University Professor, Rice University. 6 May 2002. 21 John Logsdon, Director, Space Policy Institute, George activities faces some tough organizational barriers. Washington University. 7 May 2002. The American bureaucracy is not well adapted to 22 Ibid. the kinds of issues presented by space exploration. 23 Ibid.

10 II. SECURITY AND COOPERATION space-based assets are extraordinarily vulnerable and difficult to defend. There is also increasing The general importance of space-based activity to awareness of the vulnerability of the terrestrial bios- national security in both military and economic phere to damage from asteroid and cometary colli- terms has been extensively noted by the Rumsfeld sion and the need to develop technologies for warn- Commission and others.24 Especially in the area of ing and defense against such possible civilization- communications and navigation, space-based sys- ending events.26 tems have become absolutely integral to daily oper- Many current groups in Washington, D.C., are ations. The extent of this dependence was illustrat- advocating an investment heavily weighted toward military applications, particularly the development ed in the recent past when a satellite malfunction of a missile-defense system. However one stands on left many pagers nonfunctional and thousands of that particular issue, it is beyond doubt that the users without the communications ability on which United States has crucial security concerns with they had come to depend for business and person- regard to space technology and the control of space al activity. In the area of navigation, military target- itself. Indeed, space is already heavily “militarized,” ing has become intimately tied to global position- if not yet “weaponized.”27 The United States mili- ing system (GPS) technology, while the same tech- tary relies on space-based systems for communica- nology is now used routinely for most maritime nav- tion, positioning, weather tracking, and navigation. igation. Finally, the use of satellites for imaging and To make things worse, the specific physical assets data-gathering activities has become a standard and involved with these functions (mainly satellites) are necessary part of the daily work conducted by mili- highly vulnerable to attack.28 tary and civilian intelligence agencies. However, although it would be naive and proba- In the area of long-term scientific capital, space- bly counterproductive to insist that military and based systems provide crucial data-gathering abili- national security concerns should not have an ties. Such areas as meteorology, oceanography, and important place in space planning, there are many environmental science benefit immensely from this other possible forms of space investment. First of data, along with the more intuitively obvious fields all, there are the familiar research and exploration of space physics, astronomy, and planetary science. activities undertaken by NASA, the ESA, and the The engineering prowess developed in space initia- Russian Space Agency. These are very important in tives is employed in a variety of activities across the terms of gaining basic knowledge about both space economy. The space enterprise is a research and and Earth. They also embody the element of adven- development engine that benefits sectors far ture and national pride that has been so important removed from initial contact with outer space historically in space science and will undoubtedly exploration.25 continue to be crucial in the future. Yet the activity of the government in nurturing In addition to these activities, there is an impor- and encouraging space initiatives has been limited tant form of space activity commonly called “civil in the last decade. Much activity has focused in two security.”29 This involves monitoring of environ- areas, the International Space Station (ISS) and mental factors, gathering agricultural information, military/national defense issues. Both of these are support of earth science and oceanography, and promising developments. The ISS marks a symbolic investigation of treaty compliance. These kinds of beginning to possibly fruitful and peaceful explo- ration of space. The security discussions, particular- 24 Report of the U.S. Commission to Assess National Security ly involving concepts related to missile defense Space Management and Organization, 2001. 25 Al Smith. 6 May 2002. technology, are a sign that policy leaders recognize 26 John W. Young, NASA astronaut. 6 May 2002. the dependence of the United States on space 27 John Logsdon, 7 May 2002. (indeed one of the main points of the high profile 28 Ibid. Rumsfeld Commission report) and the fact that 29 Ibid.

11 functions have important economic benefits. In the and Russians, and this has proved a testing field in United States, they are embodied in the National which many problems of international relations Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration become clear. Even such seemingly basic issues as (NOAA), which is much less visible than NASA but translation of technical vocabulary can become might have an important role in expanding space extremely problematic. Witness the Russian inter- activities in this direction. A key advantage of civil preter who translated “hydraulic ram” as “water security activity is that whereas America’s interna- goat” in an early meeting concerning Apollo- tional partners are extremely nervous about partic- Soyuz.33 Other cultural issues are more intractable. ipating in military activities in space, they might For instance, styles of organization and manage- well be quite enthusiastic about civil security pro- ment vary widely between nations. Whereas grams. Americans tend toward official organizations with As the demands on the resources of the United fluid personnel, Russians prefer stable structures States show no sign of decreasing appreciably in the based largely on personal relationships.34 While near future, it is becoming patently obvious that American projects rely on official records and for- new space initiatives must come in the form of mal techniques, Russian management employs a international cooperative ventures. This is not a folklore system in which wisdom is passed, or not, new role for the space program. NASA has always through managerial generations.35 Given such dif- had a role as an instrument of international politics ferent modes of approaching a task, the field is rife and foreign policy as well as in scientific research for misunderstanding, delay, and inefficiency. and space operations.30 Indeed, the space program Nevertheless, the importance of the was one of the first and most successful attempts at Russian–American working relationship forged by American–Soviet cooperation during the Cold War NASA and its Soviet counterparts remains one of era. The decision to cooperate with the Soviets was the least understood and appreciated aspects of the a basic policy stance that placed NASA at the fore- United States’s space endeavors. Through Apollo- front of Cold War international relations.31 The Soyuz and other programs, up to and including the Apollo-Soyuz mission opened a crack in the icy wall International Space Station, NASA trained a cadre between nations, heralding the possibility of a rela- of and managers who could effectively tionship between Russia and the United States work with their Russian partners on tasks that were based on mutual effort and understanding rather delicate, complex, and often touching on deep than confrontation. issues of security for both nations. This stands as an However, international cooperation is a dream irrefutable example that such cooperation is possi- that often vanishes with morning. The various ble. The importance of this cooperation to Russia organizations involved, including NASA, the ESA, was emphasized by none other than Russian presi- the Russian Space Agency, and the Japanese and dent Vladimir Putin when, in a 2001 speech at Rice Chinese space endeavors, have their own goals and University, he remarked that both Russia and the needs. Often these goals arise as much from nation- (JSC) have a “joint holiday,” al pride and cultural motivations as from rational April 13, the anniversary of ’s flight. economic policy or a desire for cooperation. A par- President Putin went on to express the hope that ticular problem comes from the possible military “our joint work in space exploration which is quick- applications of the United States’s space effort. This ly gathering momentum” could provide an exam- tends to produce a nervous reaction among Chinese government circles and is not met favor- 30 James Newman, former astronaut. 7 May 2002. ably in Russia or Europe. Civil security measures, as 31 Joseph H. Engle, former astronaut. 7 May 2002. 32 we have seen, may be a much more promising area John Logsdon, 7 May 2002. 33 Joseph H. Engle, 7 May 2002. to investigate.32 34 Jean-Loup Chrétien, former NASA astronaut and Soviet cos- Undoubtedly, the most important international monaut, 7 May 2002, and James Newman, 7 May 2002. relationship to date has been between Americans 35 Ibid.

12 ple and model for future joint activities between uates might rise from 30 percent to 35 percent as a America and Russia.36 strata of the workforce. However, perhaps the greatest challenge to inter- This is in part a result of the well-known demo- national cooperation is found in certain character- graphic shift toward an older population. It is also, istics of American culture. Americans tend to think however, due to the failure of the American educa- of themselves, and their country, as quite straight- tional system to provide appropriate education to forward and easily understandable. They are thus large segments of the community, namely minority baffled when citizens of other countries find groups. As the proportion of these groups in terms American attitudes and behaviors contradictory, of the total population, particularly the proportion confusing, and even infuriating. As a culture we of the Hispanic community, becomes inevitably have grown used to the protean nature of our social larger, this failure endangers the entire economic and cultural relations. We think little of widely dif- system.40 fering styles of interaction in different domains. To To make matters worse, the United States faces a many other people, however, this multitude of faces growing disparity in wealth and income between is disturbing and somewhat frightening.37 Perhaps the upper and lower levels of society. This disparity most importantly, as America has turned inward in erodes social well-being and unity and makes the the past years, the faces that are most readily wel- foundations of the entire political and economic comed by citizens of other nations have not been system less stable. As the value of education as a evident. As Jean-Loup Chrétien has observed, the determinant of social and economic position grows, face of the great American has not been seen in far the effects of inadequate educational systems will too long.38 also grow. This is such a profound problem that it is within reason to appropriate medical terminology and label it a pathology of the body politic.41 III. THE HUMAN FACTOR The exploration of space and the expansion of space-based activities once again offer partial A. The Educational Crisis answers to these dilemmas. The type of intense From 1980 to 2000, the overall labor force grew research and development activities required by by 35 percent and the prime age workforce (ages space exploration provides the kind of environ- 25–54) grew by a remarkable 54 percent; college ment in which ideas, skills, and knowledge can educated workers more than doubled and flower. Given the huge returns to human capital increased as a fraction of the labor force from 22 and the potential economic multipliers, as well as percent of the total to over 30 percent. the undeveloped nature of space as an economic The inevitable future sees the United States fac- sector, this seems a logical, indeed a necessary, form ing a human capital crisis, a crisis at the heart of its of investment for American government, academic productivity engine—the source of the all-impor- institutions, and private corporations. Indeed, cor- tant ideas, skills, and knowledge. The American porations in particular are in danger of losing the economy faces a slowdown in the total growth of constant reinforcement of human capital needed the workforce and a more pronounced slowing of to compete in an increasingly crowded global mar- the growth in the educated workforce.39 ket. In the next 20 years, there will be virtually no growth in the prime age workforce at all; the num- ber of native-born white prime age workers will fall 36 Vladimir Putin, President of the Russian Federation. 14 by 10 percent; growth in the prime age workforce November 2001. 37 will come almost exclusively from older workers Ibid. 38 Ibid. and people of color. 39 Ray Marshall. 7 May 2002. The educational level of the workforce will 40 Ibid. improve far less. In the next 20 years, college grad- 41 Ibid. 13 However, the devel- Ph.D.’s produced in opment of human capi- many fields are even tal brings important now unable to secure issues. Like any capital appropriate employ- development, human ment. resources require long- The current state of range, scientific plan- science and engineer- ning.42 Although it is ing education in true that labor markets America has been the are incredibly sensitive subject of multiple to localized and short- laments, reports, and term influences, and press opportunities. thus notoriously diffi- The rhetoric surround- cult to predict, it is also ing the situation has true that certain basic grown thick with tech- principles of planning nical and academic jar- hold true with labor gon, while the policies development. Partic- involved with science ularly, human capital and engineering edu- must be used appropri- cation have provided ately if it is to continue lightning rods for all to develop. To put it in kinds of “special inter- more personal terms, it est” politics and wran- does no good to edu- gling over ideology. It cate a person if jobs is a field that most peo- that make appropriate use of that education are not ple on the street little understand. If they do, they available. Unless steps are taken to increase demand are weary of hearing about it. Yet it is the issue on as well as supply, the United States will face an which the entire edifice of space exploration must Indian or Bangladeshi scenario where there is a eventually stand or collapse. large unemployed sector of well-trained people.43 Indeed, the United States is already in the opening 42 Ibid. stages of that scenario, as less than half the 43 Ibid.

14 15 All surveys of current trends reveal a declining every difference in standardized test scores as sig- relative interest in science and engineering among nificant operates to the detriment of many minori- American students. This is sadly significant in a ties. As Richard Tapia has observed, “we value what world where secular trends seem to be indicating we measure because we cannot measure what we the continuing need and importance of these skills value.”44 for the future. To make matters worse, science and mathematics In part, this has been masked by a contemporary are considered extremely difficult by most students glut of well-educated people on the job market—a and parents—an attitude encouraged by certain phenomenon arising from the epidemic of corpo- historical developments in the sciences themselves, rate restructuring that began in the mid-1980s, as which have come to value their reputation for rigor well as by record or near-record production in some and to enforce that reputation with ritualistic exer- graduate programs. The trend also has been con- cises such as the culling of the freshmen. It can be cealed by a ready availability of talent from outside shown, for instance, that science departments the United States—particularly from Asia. However, “wash out” an equal proportion of prospective no glut lasts forever. The job market circumstances freshmen majors (about one third) at all institu- that have produced the current “buyer’s market” tions on all levels. Thus Ivy League schools discour- will shift with the inevitable realignment of forces age many potential science majors that other col- that always comes in a system of free competition. leges might be ecstatic to have.45 This overall atti- In addition, as Asian economies develop, the supply tude makes it difficult to engage in long-term dis- of young scientists and engineers from countries cussions of the science and engineering workforce, such as China and India will sharply decline. All of as the academic system in some ways works deliber- this points to a potential squeeze on American sci- ately against expansion. ence, government, and industry—a squeeze that Science classrooms may also be a difficult milieu may well manifest sooner than many would imag- for women, whose entry into the workforce since ine. Many American companies who assume that the 1950s has stimulated a very large percentage of the current patterns of labor availability will be per- American economic growth. Science education is manent, and who thus have failed to develop any very much based on the idea of the ordeal. That is, kind of long-term human capital development poli- a new student is placed in a difficult situation (for cies, are likely to find themselves in dire straits as instance, an introductory chemistry class) with little the supply of talented and educated labor, now guidance or support. If he or she performs ade- taken for granted, dwindles. quately, the reward is entry into a kind of guild sys- In a society growing increasingly more compli- tem where support and personal camaraderie are cated, the failure to attract more women and available. Although males tend to work well in such minorities into science and engineering is intensely environments—and even find them stimulating— important. This failure comes from many factors. women very often become baffled, confused, and First, many minority students do not have the type frustrated by what they see as irrational refusal to of familial support for pursuit of science and engi- grant the help and support they need in the early neering education—or any kind of education—that stages of their education.46 many Caucasians can take for granted. Such stu- dents also must compete in an environment B. The Loss of History informed by and structured around systems of stan- Research and development is, inherently, a diffi- dardized testing that are of limited predictive abili- ty. Although it is true that a certain threshold phe- 44 Richard Tapia, Professor of Computational and Applied nomenon does occur—that is that below roughly Mathematics, Rice University. 6 May 2002. 45 1000 the SATs are a good measure of performance, Elaine Seymour, Director of Ethnography and Evaluation Research for the Bureau of Sociological Research at the whereas above that number they are not—the cur- University of Colorado. 6 May 2002. rent social and educational practice of stressing 46 Ibid.

16 cult activity to manage. Its very nature means that engineering” was vastly downscaled and relegated R&D is an open-ended activity with difficult-to-pre- to the role of providing advisory expertise on par- dict outcomes and inherently unstable schedules ticular well-defined issues. and timelines. This is perhaps particularly true with Although this approach did indeed improve regard to the kind of high-technology research and coordination on particular projects, over the mid development involved in the American aerospace and long term it has proved to engender many enterprise in general and space initiatives in partic- complications. In particular, with the loss of an ular. The goals are complex, the work is difficult, active, involved central engineering, the historical and the people involved are extremely bright and knowledge base of corporations has been greatly energetic (and thus neither predictable nor always diminished. Project teams are ephemeral bodies, easy to guide).47 arising and dispersing with particular projects. The In addition to this normal level of difficulty in experience gained in solving a given set of prob- management of engineering research and develop- lems is no longer resident in a permanent office. ment, however, modern trends in project organiza- Instead it exists only with individuals, who often are tion have raised particular long-term problems. not available or cognizant when similar problems The “classic” form of project organization in the arise with other projects. Thus, industry spends a aerospace sector involved a point locus for most large amount of time and money “re-inventing the engineering functions known, at least colloquially, wheel” as project teams grapple with difficulties as “central engineering.”48 This centralized locus that were, unbeknownst to the individuals involved, contained divisions and offices associated with the already addressed in another project. The remain- various tasks, thus a “wing ing central engineering advisory offices might, in office,” a “propulsion office,” and so forth. The theory, provide such historical knowledge. engineers associated semipermanently with these However, memory adheres primarily in the context offices would work on multiple projects, having of active involvement and responsibility. As modern responsibility for a particular engineering function. engineering advisory offices have little active In other words, the “wing office” would work on the involvement and no real responsibility, such knowl- wings for all ongoing development projects, while edge does not automatically collect. Also, corpora- the “propulsion office” worked on all engines and tions, unlike many government and military units, the “electronics office” on all cockpits. have no historical offices or archival professionals This kind of organization, while relatively clear dedicated to the preservation and analysis of such and in some ways intuitive, could pose horrific dif- knowledge, nor do modern academic institutions ficulties for a project manager. Attempting to shep- support historians devoted to such studies. As a herd through a particular launch vehicle or air- result, the waste of resources is considerable.50 frame, the manager had to work with multiple This loss of historical memory is part of a gener- offices in central engineering, each with its own al degenerative phenomenon quite apparent in lore, procedures, and traditions, each with a certain many areas of American industry. Whether one is jealously guarded territory. In the late ’70s and talking about aerospace or retail or energy, fluidity early ’80s, there was a large move away from such of structure and rapid turnover of personnel have organization, led in part by the project-oriented come to dominate the private sector. Entire compa- practices adopted with regard to the space shuttle.49 nies restructure themselves regularly, and specific The result, in some areas, was the creation of inte- projects rise and depart in a kind of perpetual grated product teams (IPTs). An IPT, or other proj- motion. Without reliable application of the histori- ect-oriented team, consisted of a body of persons dedicated to a particular project and working exclu- 47 George Jeffs, 6 May 2002. sively on that project. In theory, the IPT approach 48 Ibid. would allow for greater coordination, control, and 49 Ibid. flexibility and thus increase efficiency. “Central 50 Ibid.

17 an’s craft, without a memory, companies constantly initial stages of any initiative poses grave dangers find themselves entangled in a quagmire of issues for both crew safety and mission success. not foreseen because not remembered. George These problems multiply given that any new Santayana said that those who do not remember space initiative, particularly one that involves the past are condemned to repeat it. This is not extended human habitation in a space environ- only illogical; it is also spectacularly unprofitable. ment, will mean that many activities now located on the surface will have to be conducted in situ. C. Astronauts and Operators to the Fore Therefore, there will have to be a significant devel- Any new space initiatives will be, by their very opment of manufacture-in-place, assemble-in-place, nature, large-scale engineering undertakings. In and repair-in-place technologies. Management pro- order to succeed, it will be necessary to keep engi- cedures for these activities must be devised, which neering in the forefront of planning, manufacture, raises important questions as to which interests will and operations.51 Whereas once one could rely on be represented. It is important that both engineer- the structures of central engineering to provide the ing and astronautics be kept in the forefront if necessary historical memory, accountability, visibili- there is to be success in these areas. ty, and prestige, in an age of project teams the cre- In addressing these problems, many economic ation of these properties is increasingly problemat- realities will have to be taken into account. Given ic. the general dearth of funds and the undeniable However, engineers are not the only crucial truth that the use of humans is very expensive, it is actors that need to be included in the forefront of likely that any future space initiative will have to fea- space activities. Without doubt, the heart and spirit ture very careful planning with regard to human of the American space enterprise rests in the involvement. That is, humans must be used for manned spaceflight program. The actual space those activities that require humans. Tasks that can exploration professionals—the astronauts and be relegated safely and efficiently to robots, auto- operations teams—also have unique responsibili- mated equipment, and unmanned launch vehicles ties, accountabilities, and talents that must be rec- should be so relegated.53 It is also the case that the ognized and institutionalized. In particular, the expense of human involvement leads naturally inclusion of astronauts and operators on teams of toward a vision of small, tightly integrated teams as scientists, engineers, and planners involved in opposed to large operations involving large staffs.54 charting the course of space missions is a key com- However, this approach, while conserving resources ponent of a successful space initiative.52 and providing flexibility and integration, risks the The integration of astronauts and operators into same problems with historical data and accounta- planning, research, and development activities bility that plague project teams. poses many challenges. In the financially strapped In conclusion, many activities in the aerospace atmosphere of the modern aerospace enterprise, enterprise require that particular human talents there are many pressures to eliminate human par- and practices, particularly those of the engineer ticipation at as many points in a given process as and astronaut, be kept at the fore. However, the possible. It is a truism of management that the most tight funding environment exerts tremendous pres- expensive part of any activity is people, and it is not sures to minimize costly human involvement in surprising that in a plethora of areas ranging from many areas. In addition, the move away from large technological design to contingency modeling to centralized organizations toward tightly focused mission planning there is great temptation to elim- integrated teams, while having many advantages for inate or at least greatly de-emphasize costly human- in-the-loop testing. However, given that space is a 51 Ibid. unique environment in which particular humans 52 William Shepherd, former astronaut. 6 May 2002. will have to make decisions in response to factors 53 Ibid. rarely or never encountered, such pruning on the 54 Ibid. 18 project management, ultimately undermines the admirable function. However, neither science fic- historical memory and accountability on which the tion nor the popular science press adequately health of any ongoing initiative depends. expresses the importance of space in terms of national security, commerce, science, and engi- neering.55 IV. THE LONG ROAD TO THE The task before advocates of space activity is FUTURE enormous. We must plunge into the daily grind of politics with much more sophistication and under- Future activity aimed at a revitalization of the space standing than we have in the past. We must be pre- program in America and the world must focus on pared to argue our case in a reasoned, respectful the areas outlined above. Specifically: way against widely varying individuals and groups who honestly do not understand how investment in • Advocates of space activity must become more space is going to help the country or the world. A comfortable with the daily practice of modern new emphasis is required of public speaking and politics, including the need to explain their writing for a variety of audiences. Advocates of proposals to ever more diverse audiences. space must rethink priorities in order to bring the • The organization of space activity in both the skills of the journalist, the historian, and the media government and private sector must be developer into clearer perspective, and advocates rethought and rationalized with regard to effi- must learn to respect these skills in addition to ciency at achieving long-term sustainable goals. those of the engineer, the physicist, and the plane- • The crisis of human capital must be headed off tologist. before it becomes a catastrophe, while space sci- The immense crisis in the nation’s educational ence and industry must take steps to appeal to system must be addressed. A curious aspect of this an ever-widening and more diverse constituen- crisis is the refusal to apply well-studied and scien- cy. tifically proved models of education.56 Engineers • Any future space activity will be, in the nature of who would not even dream of approaching a criti- things, more likely to show international coop- cal technical problem without knowing the latest eration. We must think about the ramifications research seem to regard matters of human capital of this and examine many of our policies (e.g., development as mysterious and unmanageable. export control laws) in this light. There must be a new push for educational funding • Memory, in the form of history, must be pre- linked with strong demands that education be con- served, treasured, and learned from in a variety ducted in a scientific and well-researched manner. of environments. This must all be done with sensitivity for the grow- ing diversity in the classroom. Such institutions as First of all, the space program is poorly under- the University of Texas at El Paso are offering new stood by political and economic leaders and the insights into ways of improving education in a mul- general public. Indeed, much of the interest among ticultural environment. the general population in space is largely colored Both government and business must rethink by science-fiction images such as those from Star their current practices with regard to space, space Trek. Although the positive effects of science fiction science, and space operations. Government must in engendering interest in space and science must not only regularize funding, it must also reorient never be underestimated, it is true that this medi- the priority it gives to space-related matters in its all- um—designed after all to entertain and not to edu- important organizational structure. Business must cate—does not convey the best information con- cerning space and space activities to the public. 55 Al Smith, Executive Vice President, Lockheed Martin Space Science fiction paints space as an arena for adven- Systems Company. 6 May 2002. ture, excitement, and wonder, which is an 56 Ray Marshall and Elaine Seymour, 6 May 2002. 19 abandon many practices that might bring short- mistakes can we build tomorrow’s triumphs. Only term profits and ease of control, but which under- by standing on the solid bedrock of the past can we mine long-term goods. For instance, the practice of launch into the vast reaches of the future. treating research and development as a profit cen- ter to be isolated from other company activities Dr. Robert Oliver, formerly of Rice University and now must be abandoned. with the Air Force Research Laboratory, was the lead writer Finally, a new respect for history and memory of this report. He was aided by the additional work of Dr. must become the hallmark of space advocacy and Paul Jeffries, formerly of Rice University, and Dr. Carolyn activity. Without such an understanding of the past, Sumners, adjunct professor at Rice University and director any activity will have a tendency to behave in pre- of the Houston Museum of Natural Science. dictable, self-defeating, and ultimately futile ways. Only by understanding what has come before can This workshop was made possible through the the future be crafted. Only by knowing yesterday’s generous support of The Boeing Company.

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