9 June 2021
Europe COVID-19 tracker Free to View Economics - Europe
The unlocking continues
COVID-19 cases are still on a downward trend in the eurozone, Chantana Sam opening the door to a further easing in restriction measures Economist HSBC Continental Europe Vaccination is continuing to accelerate and is gradually being opened to all adults and even teenagers in some countries The situation is more complex in the UK where rising cases call into question the lifting of remaining restrictions on 21 June
Going out tonight? New COVID-19 cases have continued to decline in most of the eurozone countries over the past week, paving the way for a new round of easing in restrictions. In France, gyms and the indoor part of bars and restaurants reopen today (on 9 June), while the curfew is loosened further with a start at 11pm instead of 9pm. In Italy, four more regions were moved to the ‘white’ category on 7 June so now around one-fifth of the population is subject to hardly any restriction, while the curfew in the other regions ('yellow') has been delayed by one hour (from midnight). In Germany, no district is now above the critical incidence threshold of 100 (almost all were even below 50) allowing for further easing of measures such as outdoor dining and retail shopping. The pace of vaccination has continued to rise in the EU and the objective to reach levels close to herd immunity by the end of the summer seems achievable based on latest trends (Charts 6 and 8). In addition, age prioritisation rules are gradually being lifted and vaccination is now open to all adults in many countries and even to teenagers in some (such as Italy and Germany since this week, with France planning to do the same on 15 June) although in Italy the decision to give the AstraZeneca vaccine to the young is causing some political controversy (Corriere della Sera, 9 June). Against that background, the eurozone could be heading towards a relatively restriction-free summer. Indeed, in Italy, most of regions are planned to move in the ‘white’ category on 21 June and the curfew would be scrapped. For France, the end of the curfew and most of capacity restrictions is planned on 30 June. Travel rules have also started to be relaxed, with Spain reopening its borders on 7 June without restrictions for all tourists that are fully vaccinated. France took a similar measure on 9 June, but only for tourists from the EU and from a handful of non-EU countries. On 9 June, the European Union has approved a new COVID-19 passport system, which will start on 1 July, which people can use to travel freely across the bloc. Sectorial eurozone PMIs show that activity in tourism and recreation already started to improve in May and this trend should continue into the summer (Chart 15).
More uncertainties in the UK The outlook is less clear in the UK, where new COVID-19 cases remain relatively low but are now firmly on the rise (almost 60% week-on-week on 8 June). On a positive note, the Health secretary Matt Hancock told the House of Commons on 7 June that the large majority of people admitted in hospitals until 3 June due to the Delta (or India) variant were not vaccinated or received only one jab (Chart 4). However, the easing of all remaining restrictions planned on 21 June remains in doubt and will depend in particular on vaccination data according to Downing Street (FT, 7 June).
This is an abridged version of a report by the same title published on 09-Jun-21. Please contact your HSBC representative or email AskResearch@hsbc.com for more information.
Disclosures & Disclaimer Issuer of report: HSBC Continental Europe This report must be read with the disclosures and the analyst certifications in the Disclosure appendix, and with the Disclaimer, which forms part of it. View HSBC Global Research at: https://www.research.hsbc.com
Free to View ● Economics - Europe 9 June 2021
The downward trends in infection and ICU numbers continues
1. New COVID-19 cases are down 25% week-on-week for eurozone Big 4 countries… COVID-19 cases* in the eurozone big 4 and UK 160000 160000
120000 120000
80000 80000
40000 40000
0 0 Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Germany France Italy Spain UK
Source: Refinitiv Datastream, HSBC. Notes: *7-day moving average. UK cases include a jump of almost 23,000 on Sunday, 4 October 2020, as a backlog of over 15,000 missing cases were added after an error in the tracking system came to light (Reuters, 4 October).
2. ... but infection rates have continued to rise in the UK and, to a less extent, in Portugal
7dma Daily COVID-19 cases per 100k of population 7dma 20 20
15 15
10 10
5 5
0 0
UK
Italy
Spain
Ireland
France
Greece
Norway
Belgium Sweden
Portugal
Germany
Switzerland Netherlands 7-day to 1-June 7-day to 8-June Source: Refinitiv Datastream, HSBC. Note: Weekend numbers are reported as 0, so “7-days to” does not include Saturday and Sunday.
3. The number of COVID-19 patients in 4. Most of British people admitted in hospital intensive care units has continued to fall due to the Delta variant were not vaccinated
Total COVID-19 related ICU patients Total UK: share of people admitted to hospital due to 8000 8000 the COVID-19 Delta v ariant 7000 7000 6000 6000 3% 5000 5000 24% 4000 4000 3000 3000 2000 2000 73% 1000 1000 0 0 Unvaccinated Have received one jab Mar-20 Jun-20 Sep-20 Dec-20 Mar-21 Jun-21 Have received both doses Germany France Italy UK* Source: Macrobond, HSBC. Note: *Medically ventilated Source: FT, HSBC
We acknowledge the assistance of Emily Wagenmann, HSBC Bank plc, in the preparation of this report.
2 Free to View ● Economics - Europe 9 June 2021
The vaccination campaign keeps rolling in the EU
5. Malta, UK and Hungary are still the front-runners in Europe in the vaccination race…
Number Number of v accine doses administered per 100 people Number 140 140 120 120 100 100 80 80 60 60 40 40 20 20
0 0
UK (6 Jun) UK (6 Jun) US (7
Italy (7 Jun) Italy
Malta (6 Jun) (6 Malta
Spain (6 Jun) (6 Spain
France (6 Jun) (6 France Poland (7 Jun) (7 Poland
Iceland (7 Jun) (7 Iceland
Finland (7 Jun) (7 Finland Greece (7 Jun) (7 Greece
Norway (6 Jun) (6 Norway
Sweden (4 Jun) (4 Sweden
Bulgaria (7 Jun) (7 Bulgaria
Portugal (7 Jun) (7 Portugal
Hungary (5 Jun) (5 Hungary
Ireland (30 May) (30 Ireland Denmark Jun) (6 Denmark Germany (7 (7 Jun) Germany Source: Our World in Data, HSBC
6. …but eurozone countries are ahead of the 7. Vaccination is now open to all adults in UK in terms of daily vaccinations per million many countries, like France
Per mn Daily COVID-19 v accine doses Per mn 000s France: average daily shots per week 000s 12000 12000 700 700 10000 10000 600 600 500 500 8000 8000 400 400 6000 6000 300 300 4000 4000 200 200 2000 2000 100 100 0 0 0 0 Dec-20 Feb-21 Apr-21 Jun-21 3 Jan 31 Jan 28 Feb 28 Mar 25 Apr 23 May Germany France Italy Under 50 50-59 59-64 60-69 70-74 75+ Spain UK US Source: Our World in Data, HSBC. Source: French government, HSBC
8. The eurozone is on track to reach herd 9. … but the spread of Delta variant (formerly immunity by the end of the year… India variant) remains a risk to monitor
% pop. Eurozone: COVID-19 vaccines % pop. % Europe ex . UK: COVID-19 variants % 200 200 100 3.0
80 2.4 150 150 60 1.8 100 100 40 1.2 50 50 20 0.6
0 0 0 0.0 Jan-21 Mar-21 May-21 Jul-21 Sep-21 Oct-20 Dec-20 Feb-21 Apr-21 Jun-21 Vaccine doses administered Alpha: B.1.1.7 (LHS) Beta: B.1.351 (RHS) Projections based on current pace Delta: B.1.617 (RHS) Source: Bloomberg, HSBC Source: GISAID, HSBC NB: Based on the 10 largest economies in the eurozone
3 Free to View ● Economics - Europe 9 June 2021
A substantial vaccine rollout is under way
10. In the long run, vaccine supply is not an issue for Europe EC Organisation Dose Type of vaccine Reported effectiveness* AstraZeneca/Oxford University Up to 400m Adenovirus 70.4% BioNTech/Pfizer Up to 604m + 1.8bn** mRNA 95% CureVac Up to 405m mRNA TBD GSK/Sanofi Up to 300m Protein adjuvant TBD Janssen/JNJ Up to 400m Adenovirus 66% Moderna Up to 460m mRNA 95.6% Germany Organisation Dose Type of vaccine Reported effectiveness* AstraZeneca/Oxford University 56m Adenovirus 70.4% BioNTech/Pfizer 30m + 64m from EC = 94m mRNA 95% CureVac 20m + 54m from EC mRNA - GSK/Sanofi 55m Protein adjuvant TBD Janssen/JNJ 37m Adenovirus 66% Moderna 50m mRNA 95.6% France Organisation Dose Type of vaccine Reported effectiveness* AstraZeneca/Oxford University Up to 60m from EC Adenovirus 70.4% BioNTech/Pfizer Up to 91m from EC mRNA 95% Moderna Up to 69m from EC mRNA 95.6% CureVac Up to 45m from EC mRNA TBD GSK/Sanofi Up to 24m from EC Protein adjuvant TBD Janssen/JNJ Up to 35m from EC Adenovirus 66% Italy Organisation Dose Type of vaccine Reported effectiveness* AstraZeneca/Oxford University 16m from EC Adenovirus 70.4% BioNTech/Pfizer 40.5m from EC mRNA 95% Various providers 70m - - Spain Organisation Dose Type of vaccine Reported effectiveness* AstraZeneca/Oxford University 31.5m from EC Adenovirus 70.4% BioNTech/Pfizer 20m + 94m** from EC mRNA 95% Janssen/JNJ 20m Adenovirus 66% UK Organisation Dose Type of vaccine Reported effectiveness* AstraZeneca/Oxford University 100m Adenovirus 70.4% BioNTech/Pfizer 100m mRNA 95% GSK/Sanofi 60m Protein adjuvant TBD Janssen/JNJ 30m Adenovirus 66% Moderna 17m mRNA 95.6% Novavax 60m Protein adjuvant 89% Valneva 60m Inactivated whole virus TBD Source: AstraZeneca, BioNTech, CureVac, GSK, Janssen, Moderna, Novavax, IDT Biologika, Valneva, HSBC. Note: *Maximum reported. **Between end-2021 and 2023
4
Free to View ● Economics - Europe 9 June 2021
Back on the move
11. The easing of restrictions measures is now increasingly evident across all countries Index Gov ernment Response Stringency Score Index 100 100
80 80
60 60
40 40
20 20
0 0 Jan-20 Mar-20 May-20 Jul-20 Sep-20 Nov-20 Jan-21 Mar-21 May-21 Germany France Italy Spain United Kingdom Norway Sweden Austria Source: Oxford COVID-19 Government response Tracker, HSBC.
12. Mobility data on retail and recreation picked up sharply recently, in particular in France and in Germany % from baseline Europe: mobility data - retail and recreation* % from baseline 20 20
0 0
-20 -20
-40 -40
-60 -60
-80 -80
-100 -100 Mar-20 May-20 Jul-20 Sep-20 Nov-20 Jan-21 Mar-21 May-21 Germany France Italy Spain UK Sweden Norway Source: Google, HSBC. Note: *7-day moving average
13. Mobility data on workplaces also improved but to a less extent % from baseline Europe: mobility data - workplaces* % from baseline 20 20
0 0
-20 -20
-40 -40
-60 -60
-80 -80 Mar-20 May-20 Jul-20 Sep-20 Nov-20 Jan-21 Mar-21 May-21 Germany France Italy Spain UK Sweden Norway Source: Google, HSBC. Note: *7-day moving average
5
Free to View ● Economics - Europe 9 June 2021
Gearing up for relatively restriction-free summer
14. Latest on the restrictions from the major European countries Country Latest lockdown measures Germany On 22 March, the Chancellery and the Heads of Federal States agreed to extend the following lockdown restrictions: Private meetings are limited to five persons (children up to 14 years are not counted) from two different households in public and private places. When using public transport or visiting shops, surgical masks or masks of the KN95 of FFP” standards must be worn. An even stricter rule applies for employees and visitors of nursing homes, who have to wear FFP-2 masks for at least as long as there is not a sufficient protection through vaccination. Non-essential private domestic travelling should be generally avoided (but is not prohibited). Travellers from abroad who enter Germany from a designated COVID-19 risk area need to register before entering and have to quarantine for at least 10 days or provide a negative test result after five days at the earliest. Entering Germany from a high-risk designated area additionally requires a negative test result. On 21 April, the Bundestag amended the Infection Protection Act, including the so-called Emergency Break to unify the measures to contain the spread of the virus at a national level. While these measures are similar to those set out above, they also contain some further refinements, for example:
If the incidence level in a region exceeds 100 on three consecutive days, the additional measures specified in the law including a nightly curfew from 10pm to 5am automatically apply from the day after next. The measures came into force on 23 April and apply for as long as an epidemic emergency situation is officially declared, but until 30 June 2021 at the latest. Regarding schools, alternating instruction is mandatory starting at an incidence level of 100. If the incidence level increases to 165, schools will have to close and remote learning will become mandatory (apart from some exceptions). An obligation for businesses to provide remote working opportunities is now anchored in the Infection Protection Act. Employers must offer employees the option for remote working wherever possible. This regulation is now also applied regardless of the 7-day incidence level. If companies claim that remote working is not possible for certain employees, they have to proof this in case of an investigation and are also required to at least test those employees regularly (without any compensation for it by the government). Above an incidence level of 150, retail stores (with the exception of stores for daily needs such as supermarkets) and services (eg, zoos, museums etc.) will have to close. Between 100 and 150, visiting a retail store will still be possible after booking an appointment in advance and under the precondition of presenting a negative COVID-19 test. However, as of 9 June, none of 401 districts in Germany were above the critical incidence threshold of 100 and almost all even below 50, which allows further easing of measures like outdoor dining and retail shopping. Moreover, on 4 May the Bundestag passed a decree that basically exempts fully vaccinated people and recovered COVID-19 patients from certain restriction measures, such as providing an obligatory test to use certain services and lifting the general contact restrictions for them as well.
France The government has adopted additional restriction measures since the start of the year. A stricter curfew (starting on 6pm instead of 8pm) has been put in place at the national level since 16 January. France’s borders with countries outside the EU have been closed since 31 January. Travel with French overseas territories is also banned, except under exceptional circumstances. For people entering France from EU countries, a negative virus test is required. Non-food shopping centres larger than 20,000 square meters have also closed since 31 January. On 20 March, full-time local lockdowns were put in place in 19 departments (covering all the Paris region) for at least four weeks. The restriction measures in confined departments include the closure of non-essential shops and services, limitations of travel to within 10km from homes and a ban on interregional travel. In addition, remote working is strongly encouraged wherever possible. At the national level, the curfew has been relaxed slightly, starting at 7pm instead of 6pm. On 31 March, President Macron announced an extension of these rules to all metropolitan France from 3 April in the evening. All interregional travel has been banned from 5 April. In addition, schools were closed for between three and four weeks, including the already planned two-week-long spring holidays. However, restrictions have started to be gradually eased. On 26 April, kindergartens and primary schools reopened. On 3 May, secondary and high schools reopened but only at half capacity for pupils aged above 13 years. All restrictions on domestic travel (limitations within 10km from homes and a ban on interregional travel) were also lifted on 3 May. On 19 May, non-essential shops, cultural places (museums, cinemas) and the outdoor part of bars and restaurants partially reopened, but with restrictions on capacity: 50% for bars and restaurants (with a maximum of 6 per table), 35% for cinemas, theatres and stadiums and 8m2 per customer for shops and museums. Moreover, the curfew starts now at 9pm instead of 7pm. On 9 June, gyms and the indoor parts of bars and restaurants reopen (at 50% of the capacity). The capacity limit for the outdoor part of bars and restaurants is lifted while the one on cinemas and theatres is raised to 65%. The curfew now starts at 11pm instead of 9pm. Rules on remote working are eased. Finally, it is possible to attend some events of more than 1,000 people (festivals, shows) with a COVID-19 health pass. Travel rules are also eased on 9 June: all fully vaccinated people from the EU and from some other ‘green’ countries are no longer required to show a negative virus test to enter France, with only a proof of their vaccination status being sufficient. The final step of the relaxation process is planned on 30 June (subject to the evolution of the pandemic) and would act as the end of the national curfew and of existing capacity limits.
6 Free to View ● Economics - Europe 9 June 2021
14. Latest on the restrictions from the major European countries Country Latest lockdown measures Italy Since November 2020, Italian regions have been split into three categories – ‘red’, ‘amber’ and ‘yellow’ – depending on several criteria related to COVID-19. The classification is updated on a weekly basis. From 15 January, a ‘white’ category was also introduced with very limited restrictions. In the ‘red’ and ‘orange’ regions, secondary schools are closed, restaurants are shut all day and mobility is restricted to essential reasons (work, health). On top of that, in the ‘red’ regions, all non-essential shops and services (eg, hairdressers) are shut as well as schools from 11 years of age (13 years in the ‘orange’). On 2 June, for the first time since last November, three regions (Sardegna, Molise, Friuli) were put in the 'white' category with no restrictions, and another four (Umbria, Veneto, Liguria and Abruzzo) were added on 7 November, altogether accounting for one-fifth of the population. There are no 'red' or 'orange' regions. In the latest COVID-19 decree approved on 18 May, the government has laid out a timeline for lifting restrictions at the national level for the 'yellow' regions (these do not apply to 'white' regions). Outdoor restaurants, cinemas and theatres and museums have already been allowed to reopen (in the case of restaurants, both for lunch and dinner). There are no more limits for the number of people in restaurants outdoors. From 22 May, shopping centres were also opened on weekends and ski resorts were allowed to re-open (although the ski season is basically over). From 24 May. gyms were allowed to reopen. and from 1 June, indoor restaurants. From 15 June, it will be the time of theme parks and museums, and from 1 July, indoor swimming pools, sport halls, trade exhibitions and congresses. Home visits to relatives and friends remain permitted once a day, up to a maximum of four people (in addition to the residents). From 19 May, the curfew has been delayed from 10pm to 11pm (still until 5am). It will then be delayed further from 12pm from 7 June and will be abolished altogether on 21 June. Primary schools have now been reopened everywhere (up to 13 years of age) while high school attendance is set at between 50% and 100%. As for international travel, until 31 July, people arriving from the EU, the UK and Israel no longer have to quarantine, but they will be required to show a negative COVID-19 test undertaken within 48 hours before departure.
Spain The Spanish Health Ministry has identified four levels of alert for the regions based on a series of indicators related to COVID-19 infection rates. As of 2 June, for the first time, no region has an 'extreme' risk, and four regions have a 'high' risk level (including the Madrid region). Pressures on the hospital system have eased with ICU occupancy rates from COVID-19 patients having dropped below 15% for the first time since September and from over 40% reached at the peak of the third wave of the pandemic earlier in the year even though it remains elevated in some regions (c35% in the Madrid region). On 9 May, the state of emergency expired and was not extended by the government. With that, the nationwide curfew also came to an end although four regions still have it in some form (Canarias, Navarra, Comunidad Valenciana and Baleares). The freedom to travel across regions has been re-established with no regions maintaining the external border closure in place (even though regions are still imposing travel restrictions in and out from specific areas within the regions). Some restrictions, though, remain in place at the regional level. For example, in the Madrid region, bars and restaurants have to shut at 1am and there remain limitations in terms of capacity (50% indoor and 75% outdoors). In Catalonia, cinemas and theatres can remain open until 11pm with capacity restrictions (70%). In the Basque Country, bars and restaurants have to close at 10pm. Spain has also reopened its external frontier. For entry, a negative COVID- 19 test is required.
UK On 4 January, Prime Minister Boris Johnson announced a national lockdown for England, including the closure of all schools. On 22 February, he laid out a new four-step framework for lifting the lockdown. On the first of the milestones he laid out, 8 March, schools reopened and permission to meet one other member of another household outdoors for recreation was added (previously such meetings were only allowed for exercise). On 29 March, there was a further relaxation in outdoor restrictions, allowing outdoor gatherings of up to six people. The second step, implemented on 12 April, saw hairdressers and gyms reopen, and pub and restaurants were allowed to serve customers outdoors (including selling alcohol without food). The third, on 17 May, saw indoor food and drink service, museums, theatres and sports stadia reopened. However, the fourth (no earlier than 21 June), which would see the government aim to “remove all legal limits on social contact”, including opening nightclubs, is in some doubt, given the rising case numbers and risks from the increased instances of the Indian variant of the virus. For the rest of the UK, plans for further lifting of restrictions vary by country. For most of Scotland, hairdressers and some retailers reopened on 5 April and outdoor hospitality and gyms on 26 April with an indoor alcohol ban lifted and cinemas reopened on 17 May. In Wales, indoor hospitality also resumed on 17 May. In Northern Ireland, hairdressers have been able to reopen since 23 April and non-essential retail and outdoor hospitality since 30 April while indoor service resumed on 24 May. International leisure travel has no longer been illegal since 17 May with regulations on testing and quarantine requirements guided by a traffic light system with lighter restrictions for amber and green listed countries, depending on their levels of COVID-19 infection rates and variants present (UK Government, 12 May 2021). Inbound arrivals will be subject to the same rules. However, Portugal is the only EU country currently on the green list, which is expected to be updated on or before 7 June. Entry into the UK from a ‘red list’ of 40 countries, including South Africa, Brazil and India, remains banned to non-UK or Irish nationals. As of 15 February, for those who cannot be refused entry from these countries – ie, returning British or Irish nationals – a mandatory 10-day quarantine in government-approved accommodation applies.
Source: Country data, HSBC
7 Free to View ● Economics - Europe 9 June 2021
Confirmation of the catching-up in the services sector
15. Eurozone sectorial PMIs suggests that the improvement in services activity in May was driven in large part by tourism and recreation…
Index Eurozone: Sector PMIs - tourism and recreation Index 60 60 55 55 50 50 45 45 40 40 35 35 30 30 25 25 Output New orders Backlogs of work Employment Input prices Output prices January February March April May Source: Refinitiv Datastream, IHS Markit, HSBC.
16…. and by consumer services Index Eurozone: Sector PMIs - output index Index 65 65
60 60
55 55
50 50
45 45
40 40
35 35 February March April May
Basic materials Consumer goods Consumer services Financials Healthcare Industrials Technology Source: Refinitiv Datastream, IHS Markit, HSBC.
17. German industrial output was weak in 18. However, the ZEW confirmed that April, probably due to supply constraints economic sentiment remains bullish
Index Germany: Industrial Sector Index Montly Germany : ZEW current situation Montly 120 120 change (pts) change (pts) 100 100 40 40 80 80 20 20 60 60 40 40 0 0
20 20 0 0 -20 -20 -20 -20 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 -40 -40 Gap New Orders, Manufacturing -60 -60 Industrial Production 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 Source: Macrobond, HSBC. Source: Macrobond, HSBC.
8 Free to View ● Economics - Europe 9 June 2021
COVID-19 in Western Europe
19. New COVID-19 cases have fallen at a 20. ... and continue to decline sharply in low level in Germany… France in spite of easing restrictions 000s Germany : COVID-19 cases 000s 000s France: COVID-19 cases 000s 4000 32 6000 90
5000 75
3000 24
Thousands Thousands Thousands Thousands 4000 60
2000 16 3000 45 2000 30 1000 8 1000 15
0 0 0 0 Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr New Cases (RHS) Cumulative (LHS) New Cases (RHS) Cumulative (LHS) Source: Refinitiv Datastream, HSBC. Source: Refinitiv Datastream, HSBC.
21. In Italy, new cases have also decreased 22. ... while the drop in Spain has been very rapidly… more gradual recently 000s Italy : COVID-19 cases 000s 000s Spain: COVID-19 cases 000s 5000 45 4000 100
4000 36
3000 75
Thousands Thousands
Thousands Thousands 3000 27 2000 50 2000 18 1000 25 1000 9
0 0 0 0 Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr
New Cases (RHS) Cumulative (LHS) New Cases (RHS) Cumulative (LHS) Source: Refinitiv Datastream, HSBC. Source: Refinitiv Datastream, HSBC.
23. In the UK, new cases are now back on 24. ... while Switzerland is still coping with the rise… the tail-end of the latest wave 000s UK: COVID-19 cases 000s 000s Sw itzerland: COVID-19 cases 000s 5000 90 800 24
4000 72
600 18
Thousands Thousands
Thousands Thousands 3000 54 400 12 2000 36 200 6 1000 18
0 0 0 0 Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr New Cases (RHS) Cumulative (LHS) New Cases (RHS) Cumulative (LHS) Source: Refinitiv Datastream, HSBC. Source: Refinitiv Datastream, HSBC.
9
Free to View ● Economics - Europe 9 June 2021
25. New COVID-19 cases have been steadily xx 26. Norway data has been erratic but is declining in the Netherlands and Belgium still trending downwards 000s Netherlands/Belgium: COVID-19 cases 000s 000s Norw ay: COVID-19 cases 000s 2000 30 140 3.5 120 3.0 1600 24
100 2.5
Thousands
Thousands Thousands 1200 18 Thousands 80 2.0 800 12 60 1.5
400 6 40 1.0 20 0.5 0 0 Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr 0 0.0 NL - New Cases (RHS) BE - New Cases (RHS) Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr NL - Cumulative (LHS) BE - Cumulative (LHS) New Cases (RHS) Cumulative (LHS) Source: Refinitiv Datastream, HSBC. Source: Refinitiv Datastream, HSBC.
27. The decline in new cases in Sweden has 28. ...while cases in Ireland seem to have accelerated over the recent period… stabilised at a low level
000s Sw eden: COVID-19 cases 000s 000s Ireland: COVID-19 cases 000s 1200 12 300 9.0
250 7.5
900 9
Thousands Thousands Thousands 200 6.0 Thousands
600 6 150 4.5
100 3.0 300 3 50 1.5
0 0 0 0.0 Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr New Cases (RHS) Cumulative (LHS) New Cases (RHS) Cumulative (LHS) Source: Refinitiv Datastream, HSBC. Source: Refinitiv Datastream, HSBC.
29. New cases in Portugal remain low but 30. …while they remain on a downward have started to edge up a bit… trend in Greece but are still meaningful
000s Portugal: COVID-19 cases 000s 000s Greece: COVID-19 cases 000s 900 18 450 5.0
750 15 360 4.0
Thousands Thousands Thousands Thousands 600 12 270 3.0 450 9 180 2.0 300 6
150 3 90 1.0
0 0 0 0.0 Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr New Cases (RHS) Cumulative (LHS) New Cases (RHS) Cumulative (LHS) Source: Refinitiv Datastream, HSBC. Source: Refinitiv Datastream, HSBC.
10 Free to View ● Economics - Europe 9 June 2021
Fiscal measures (in the Big 4 eurozone countries and the UK)
31. Fiscal policy was highly supportive of growth last year even if significant chunk of support did not make it into the economy due to restrictions and was actually saved % GDP Decomposition of deficit changes in 2020 % GDP 14 14 12 12 10 10 8 8 6 6 4 4 2 2 0 0 -2 -2 Eurozone Germany France Italy Spain* UK* Discretionary One-offs Economic cycle Fiscal impulse Deficit change
Source: HSBC calculations based on national statistical institutes, Eurostat and European Commission, 2020 budgets and amendments. Notes: * Refers to fiscal year 2020/21. The ‘Economic Cycle’ component for eurozone countries and the Big 4 includes the ‘normal’ short-time work compensation schemes but not the extensions and more generous terms agreed in response to the COVID-19 crisis. For the UK, it includes the Job Retention Scheme (JRS).
32. After the latest significant upward revisions of this year's deficit targets by most eurozone countries, fiscal policy could be even more supportive of growth this year % GDP Decomposition of deficit changes in 2021 % GDP 5 5 4 4 3 3 2 2 1 1 0 0 -1 -1 -2 -2 -3 -3 -4 -4 -5 -5 Eurozone Germany France Italy Spain UK*
Discretionary Economic cycle NGEU 'grants' 2020 One-offs expiring Fiscal impulse Deficit change Source: HSBC calculations based on national statistical institutes, Eurostat and European Commission, 2020 budgets and amendments. Notes: * Refers to fiscal year 2020/21. The ‘Economic Cycle’ component for eurozone countries and the Big 4 includes the ‘normal’ short-time work compensation schemes but not the extensions and more generous terms agreed in response to the COVID-19 crisis. For the UK, it includes the Job Retention Scheme (JRS).
33. Fiscal policy should remain expansive in 2022 thanks to Next Generation EU fund, while European Commission has announced EU fiscal rules will remain suspended
Output gap Eurozone: Fiscal policy stance and output gap Output gap 2 2019 2 2018 Fiscal expansion 1 1 2017 0 0 2011 -1 2016 2022* -1 -2 2014 -2 2012 2015 -3 -3 -4 2013 2021* -4 -5 2020 -5 Fiscal tightening -6 -6 -7 -7 -1.5 -1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 Source: HSBC calculations based on national statistical institutes, Eurostat and European Commission, 2020 budgets and amendments. Note: The adjusted series takes into account that due to ongoing restrictions at least part of the stimulus implemented last year and this year did not actually feed through into the economy but will only do so once restrictions are lifted.
11 Free to View ● Economics - Europe 9 June 2021
Disclosure appendix Analyst Certification The following analyst(s), economist(s), or strategist(s) who is(are) primarily responsible for this report, including any analyst(s) whose name(s) appear(s) as author of an individual section or sections of the report and any analyst(s) named as the covering analyst(s) of a subsidiary company in a sum-of-the-parts valuation certifies(y) that the opinion(s) on the subject security(ies) or issuer(s), any views or forecasts expressed in the section(s) of which such individual(s) is(are) named as author(s), and any other views or forecasts expressed herein, including any views expressed on the back page of the research report, accurately reflect their personal view(s) and that no part of their compensation was, is or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or views contained in this research report: Chantana Sam Important disclosures This document has been prepared and is being distributed by the Research Department of HSBC and is intended solely for the clients of HSBC and is not for publication to other persons, whether through the press or by other means. This document is for information purposes only and it should not be regarded as an offer to sell or as a solicitation of an offer to buy the securities or other investment products mentioned in it and/or to participate in any trading strategy. Advice in this document is general and should not be construed as personal advice, given it has been prepared without taking account of the objectives, financial situation or needs of any particular investor. Accordingly, investors should, before acting on the advice, consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to their objectives, financial situation and needs. If necessary, seek professional investment and tax advice. Certain investment products mentioned in this document may not be eligible for sale in some states or countries, and they may not be suitable for all types of investors. Investors should consult with their HSBC representative regarding the suitability of the investment products mentioned in this document and take into account their specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs before making a commitment to purchase investment products. The value of and the income produced by the investment products mentioned in this document may fluctuate, so that an investor may get back less than originally invested. Certain high-volatility investments can be subject to sudden and large falls in value that could equal or exceed the amount invested. Value and income from investment products may be adversely affected by exchange rates, interest rates, or other factors. Past performance of a particular investment product is not indicative of future results. HSBC and its affiliates will from time to time sell to and buy from customers the securities/instruments, both equity and debt (including derivatives) of companies covered in HSBC Research on a principal or agency basis or act as a market maker or liquidity provider in the securities/instruments mentioned in this report. Analysts, economists, and strategists are paid in part by reference to the profitability of HSBC which includes investment banking, sales & trading, and principal trading revenues. Whether, or in what time frame, an update of this analysis will be published is not determined in advance. For disclosures in respect of any company mentioned in this report, please see the most recently published report on that company available at www.hsbcnet.com/research. HSBC Private Banking clients should contact their Relationship Manager for queries regarding other research reports. In order to find out more about the proprietary models used to produce this report, please contact the authoring analyst. Additional disclosures 1 This report is dated as at 09 June 2021. 2 All market data included in this report are dated as at close 08 June 2021, unless a different date and/or a specific time of day is indicated in the report. 3 HSBC has procedures in place to identify and manage any potential conflicts of interest that arise in connection with its Research business. HSBC's analysts and its other staff who are involved in the preparation and dissemination of Research operate and have a management reporting line independent of HSBC's Investment Banking business. Information Barrier procedures are in place between the Investment Banking, Principal Trading, and Research businesses to ensure that any confidential and/or price sensitive information is handled in an appropriate manner. 4 You are not permitted to use, for reference, any data in this document for the purpose of (i) determining the interest payable, or other sums due, under loan agreements or under other financial contracts or instruments, (ii) determining the price at which a financial instrument may be bought or sold or traded or redeemed, or the value of a financial instrument, and/or (iii) measuring the performance of a financial instrument or of an investment fund.
12 Free to View ● Economics - Europe 9 June 2021
Disclaimer Legal entities as at 1 December 2020 Issuer of report 'UAE' HSBC Bank Middle East Limited, DIFC; HSBC Bank Middle East Limited, Dubai; ‘HK’ The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited, HSBC Continental Europe Hong Kong; ‘TW’ HSBC Securities (Taiwan) Corporation Limited; 'CA' HSBC Securities (Canada) Inc.; ‘France’ HSBC Continental Europe; ‘Spain’ HSBC 38 avenue Kléber Continental Europe, Sucursal en España; ‘Italy’ HSBC Continental Europe, Italy; ‘Sweden’ HSBC Continental Europe Bank, Sweden Filial ; ‘DE’ HSBC 75116 Paris, France Trinkaus & Burkhardt AG, Düsseldorf; 000 HSBC Bank (RR), Moscow; ‘IN’ HSBC Securities and Capital Markets (India) Private Limited, Mumbai; ‘JP’ Telephone: +33 1 40 70 70 40 HSBC Securities (Japan) Limited, Tokyo; ‘EG’ HSBC Securities Egypt SAE, Cairo; ‘CN’ HSBC Investment Bank Asia Limited, Beijing Representative Fax: +33 1 40 70 70 09 Office; The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited, Singapore Branch; The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited, Website: www.research.hsbc.com Seoul Securities Branch; The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited, Seoul Branch; HSBC Securities (South Africa) (Pty) Ltd, Johannesburg; HSBC Bank plc, London, Tel Aviv; ‘US’ HSBC Securities (USA) Inc, New York; HSBC Yatirim Menkul Degerler AS, Istanbul; HSBC México, SA, Institución de Banca Múltiple, Grupo Financiero HSBC; HSBC Bank Australia Limited; HSBC Bank Argentina SA; HSBC Saudi Arabia Limited; The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited, New Zealand Branch incorporated in Hong Kong SAR; The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited, Bangkok Branch; PT Bank HSBC Indonesia; HSBC Qianhai Securities Limited; Banco HSBC S.A. This document has been issued by HSBC Continental Europe (“HSBC”) for the information of its customers only. This document is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to purchase or subscribe for any investment. HSBC has based this document on information obtained from sources it believes to be reliable but which it has not independently verified; HSBC makes no guarantee, representation or warranty and accepts no responsibility or liability as to its accuracy or completeness. Expressions of opinion are those of the Research Department of HSBC only and are subject to change without notice. From time to time research analysts conduct site visits of covered issuers. HSBC policies prohibit research analysts from accepting payment or reimbursement for travel expenses from the issuer for such visits. HSBC and its affiliates and/or their officers, directors and employees may have positions in any securities mentioned in this document (or in any related investment) and may from time to time add to or dispose of any such securities (or investment). HSBC and its affiliates may act as market maker or have assumed an underwriting commitment in the securities of companies discussed in this document (or in related investments), may sell them to or buy them from customers on a principal basis and may also perform or seek to perform investment banking or underwriting services for or relating to those companies and may also be accounted for in the supervisory board or any other committee of those companies. The information and opinions contained within the research reports are based upon rates of taxation applicable at the time of publication but which are subject to change from time to time. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. The value of any investment or income may go down as well as up and you may not get back the full amount invested. Where an investment is denominated in a currency other than the local currency of the recipient of the research report, changes in the exchange rates may have an adverse effect on the value, price or income of that investment. In case of investments for which there is no recognised market it may be difficult for investors to sell their investments or to obtain reliable information about its value or the extent of the risk to which it is exposed. HSBC Continental Europe is authorised as credit institution and investment services provider by the Autorité de Contrôle Prudentiel et de Résolution (ACPR), regulated by the Autorité des Marchés Financiers (AMF) and the ACPR, controlled by the European Central Bank. HSBC Securities (USA) Inc. accepts responsibility for the content of this research report prepared by its non-US foreign affiliate. The information contained herein is under no circumstances to be construed as investment advice and is not tailored to the needs of the recipient. All U.S. persons receiving and/or accessing this report and wishing to effect transactions in any security discussed herein should do so with HSBC Securities (USA) Inc. in the United States and not with its non-US foreign affiliate, the issuer of this report. In the UK, this publication is distributed by HSBC Bank plc for the information of its Clients (as defined in the Rules of FCA) and those of its affiliates only. Nothing herein excludes or restricts any duty or liability to a customer which HSBC Bank plc has under the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 or under the Rules of FCA and PRA. A recipient who chooses to deal with any person who is not a representative of HSBC Bank plc in the UK will not enjoy the protections afforded by the UK regulatory regime. HSBC Bank plc is regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority and the Prudential Regulation Authority. If this research is received by a customer of an affiliate of HSBC, its provision to the recipient is subject to the terms of business in place between the recipient and such affiliate. In Singapore, this publication is distributed by The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited, Singapore Branch for the general information of institutional investors or other persons specified in Sections 274 and 304 of the Securities and Futures Act (Chapter 289) (“SFA”) and accredited investors and other persons in accordance with the conditions specified in Sections 275 and 305 of the SFA. Only Economics or Currencies reports are intended for distribution to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or Institutional Investor as defined in SFA. The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited, Singapore Branch accepts legal responsibility for the contents of reports pursuant to Regulation 32C(1)(d) of the Financial Advisers Regulations. This publication is not a prospectus as defined in the SFA. It may not be further distributed in whole or in part for any purpose. The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited Singapore Branch is regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore. Recipients in Singapore should contact a "Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited, Singapore Branch" representative in respect of any matters arising from, or in connection with this report. Please refer to The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited Singapore Branch’s website at www.business.hsbc.com.sg for contact details. In the European Economic Area, this publication has been distributed by HSBC Continental Europe or by such other HSBC affiliate from which the recipient receives relevant services. In Australia, this publication has been distributed by The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited (ABN 65 117 925 970, AFSL 301737) for the general information of its “wholesale” customers (as defined in the Corporations Act 2001). Where distributed to retail customers, this research is distributed by HSBC Bank Australia Limited (ABN 48 006 434 162, AFSL No. 232595). These respective entities make no representations that the products or services mentioned in this document are available to persons in Australia or are necessarily suitable for any particular person or appropriate in accordance with local law. No consideration has been given to the particular investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any recipient. This publication is distributed in New Zealand by The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited, New Zealand Branch incorporated in Hong Kong SAR. In Japan, this publication has been distributed by HSBC Securities (Japan) Limited. In Hong Kong, this document has been distributed by The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited in the conduct of its Hong Kong regulated business for the information of its institutional and professional customers; it is not intended for and should not be distributed to retail customers in Hong Kong. The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited makes no representations that the products or services mentioned in this document are available to persons in Hong Kong or are necessarily suitable for any particular person or appropriate in accordance with local law. All inquiries by such recipients must be directed to The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited. It may not be further distributed in whole or in part for any purpose. In Korea, this publication is distributed by The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited, Seoul Securities Branch ("HBAP SLS") for the general information of professional investors specified in Article 9 of the Financial Investment Services and Capital Markets Act (“FSCMA”). This publication is not a prospectus as defined in the FSCMA. It may not be further distributed in whole or in part for any purpose. HBAP SLS is regulated by the Financial Services Commission and the Financial Supervisory Service of Korea. In Canada, this document has been distributed by HSBC Securities (Canada) Inc. (member IIROC), and/or its affiliates. The information contained herein is under no circumstances to be construed as investment advice in any province or territory of Canada and is not tailored to the needs of the recipient. No securities commission or similar regulatory authority in Canada has reviewed or in any way passed judgment upon these materials, the information contained herein or the merits of the securities described herein, and any representation to the contrary is an offense. In Brazil, this document has been distributed by Banco HSBC S.A. ("HSBC Brazil"), and/or its affiliates. As required by Instruction No. 598/18 of the Securities and Exchange Commission of Brazil (Comissão de Valores Mobiliários), potential conflicts of interest concerning (i) HSBC Brazil and/or its affiliates; and (ii) the analyst(s) responsible for authoring this report are stated on the chart above labelled "HSBC & Analyst Disclosures". If you are an HSBC Private Banking (“PB”) customer with approval for receipt of relevant research publications by an applicable HSBC legal entity, you are eligible to receive this publication. To be eligible to receive such publications, you must have agreed to the applicable HSBC entity’s terms and conditions for accessing research and the terms and conditions of any other internet banking service offered by that HSBC entity through which you will access research publications (“the Terms”). Distribution of this publication is the sole responsibility of the HSBC entity with whom you have agreed the Terms. If you do not meet the aforementioned eligibility requirements please disregard this publication and, if you are a customer of PB, please notify your Relationship Manager. Receipt of research publications is strictly subject to the Terms and any other conditions or disclaimers applicable to the provision of the publications that may be advised by PB. © Copyright 2021, HSBC Continental Europe, ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted, on any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise, without the prior written permission of HSBC Continental Europe. MCI (P) 028/02/2021, MCI (P) 087/10/2020 [1172585]
13