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General Motors (NYSE: GM) Sector Head: Amanda Luong Senior Analyst: Eric Cassar BUY: Price Target: Upside: Junior Analysts: Brandon Wexler GM $71 20% Patrick Sickler Lauren Levine Consumer Discretionary Consumer Sector Buy: Target: Upside: Company Overview GM $71 20% • General Motors is the largest American automobile manufacturer that designs and sells cars, trucks, crossovers, and automobile parts for consumer retail and fleet customers • As a multinational corporation, GM’s automotive segment is divided into GM North America (GMNA) and GM International (GMI) with brands like Buick, Cadillac, Chevrolet, GMC, and Holden Brands • GM Cruise is General Motors’ autonomous vehicle segment that has recently had Microsoft Corporation contribute to a $2.2B investment for furthering its electric self-driving services 3 Year Historic Performance Revenue Breakdown 40% 0.1% 0.3% 30% 11.3% 20% 9.5% 10% 0% -10% 78.9% -20% -30% 3/12/2018 9/12/2018 3/12/2019 9/12/2019 3/12/2020 9/12/2020 GMNA GMI Corporate Cruise GM Financial Consumer Discretionary Consumer Sector GM XLY S&P 500 March 15, 2021 2 Buy: Target: Upside: Industry Analysis GM $71 20% • The automotive industry generates $953B each year through sales and servicing • North American automotive market expected to grow at a CAGR of 7.22% through 2025 • Global automotive industry is expected to grow at a CAGR of 5.76% to reach $28.5B by the end of 2025 • New car sales expected to rise by 15% in 2021 • The expansion of electric vehicles continue to propel the industry as a way to mitigate global carbon dioxide emissions and increase sustainability • EV sales will increase 36% yoy to 3.4M units in 2021 Global Motor Vehicle Production Consumer Preferences for Next Vehicle 120 United States 100 India 80 Germany 60 China 40 Japan Vehicles (In Vehicles (In Millions) 20 Rep. of Korea 0 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Gasoline/Diesel Hybrid Electric Battery Electric Vehicle Other Western Europe Eastern Europe Asia Latin America North America Other Consumer Discretionary Consumer Sector March 15, 2021 3 Buy: Target: Upside: Investment Thesis GM $71 20% • EV Revolution provides strong outlook and growth opportunities • 30 new global electric vehicles by 2025 & development of Brightdrop • Strong Consumer Sentiment in both the US and China propelled by Biden’s sustainability plan, contributing to GM’s high value proposition • Robust Profitability and strength of existing product offerings incl. crossovers, trucks, and Cadillac brand • Strong balance sheet and EBIT margin improvements position GM well for future success • Future of autonomous vehicles further boosts outlook CD Allocation Key Statistics 8% 3% 7% 2020 Revenue $122.5 bn 35% 52 Week High/Low $59.62/$14.32 BIF: 10.0% (2.3% UW) Buy GM FWD EV/EBIT 8.15x Market Capitalization $85.39 bn 47% EPS $4.90 Consumer Discretionary Consumer Sector TGT AMZN QSR ULTA DHI March 15, 2021 4 Buy: Target: Upside: #1: EV Revolution GM $71 20% GM’s EV Plans Ultium Battery • 30 new global EV models by 2025 • Large-format, pouch-style cells can be stacked vertically or • Exclusively offer electric vehicles by 2035 horizontally inside battery pack • All facilities powered by renewable energy by 2035 • Allows optimization of battery energy storage and layout for • Will spend over $27 billion in this transition each vehicle design • Allows for massive scalability & flexibility at reduced costs • New models will include the Cadillac Lyriq, Cadillac • 0 to 60 mph acceleration in as low as 3 seconds Celestiq, GMC Hummer, and Chevy Bolt • Range over 400 miles per charge • Plans to devote over 50% ofCatalyst product #2development team • Can add revenue streams through licensing technology to electric and autonomous vehicle programs to others Global EV Sales (in mns of units) Battery Advantages $160 35 44% cheaper 29.5 30 $120 $137 25 $115 Battery 20 $80 $95 Cost 15 ($/kWh) 10 $40 5 2.6 0 $0 Industry Average Tesla GM 2024 Consumer Discretionary Consumer Sector 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021E2022E2023E2024E2025E2026E2027E March 15, 2021 Buy: Target: Upside: 1: EV Revolution GM $71 20% • New GM startup, officially launched Jan. 12, 2021, focuses on improving delivery services using an integrated system of electric products, software, and services • Designed to help businesses lower costs, maximize productivity and improve employee safety through sustainable practices • Demand for urban last-mile delivery, fueled by ecommerce, expected to grow 78% by 2030 which will lead to a 36% increase in delivery vehicles in the world’s top 100 cities • Urban delivery expected to add 11 minutes to daily commute and increase carbon emissions by 30% by 2030 without effective intervention • Partnership with FedEx already secured, will receive their first 500 BrightDrop vehicles in mid-late 2021 Catalyst #2 Global Parcel Delivery Market (in bns) Delivery Statistics $900 $800 771 Urbanization Customers Same-Day Grocery $700 Wil reach $600 550 60% of 2.1 billion 20.7% $500 population by expected to CAGR 55% of 2030 buy goods expected from population by $400 online in 2021 2021-2027 2024 $300 $200 $100 11% of CO2 emissions from delivery $- Consumer Discretionary Consumer Sector 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 March 15, 2021 6 Buy: Target: Upside: 1: EV Revolution GM $71 20% EP1 EV600 Electrically powered motorized box that helps Electric light-purpose vehicle built for handle short-distance parcel transport long-distance delivery Consumer Discretionary Consumer Sector March 15, 2021 7 Buy: Target: Upside: 2: Strong Consumer Sentiment GM $71 20% Political Initiatives EV Infrastructure & Societal Support • Biden Plan: Aimed at achieving net-zero emissions • EV charging infrastructure market to grow at 36% by 2050 through renewable energy infrastructure CAGR through 2028 • Plans to spend $2 trillion over next 4 years • GM & EVgo will partner to triple size of the • Stricter efficiency standards to be placed on US largest public fast charging network Auto Industry (3.7% annual increases through 2025) • 67% of Americans now support their state to • Goal: US surpasses China as the number one electric invest in EV charging infrastructure vehicle supplier in the world • Over 170 firms & 77 countries set the “2050 Goal” Cumulative EV Sales Through 2020 (Thousands) Biden Charging Network Plan 500,000 500,000 Sweden 218 Netherlands 297 400,000 Japan 334 United Kingdom 450 300,000 France 470 200,000 Norway 498 90,000 Germany 700 100,000 United States 1786 China 4710 0 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 Consumer Discretionary Consumer Sector 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 4500 5000 March 15, 2021 Buy: Target: Upside: 2: # of Charging Stations Per State GM $71 20% Consumer Discretionary Consumer Sector March 15, 2021 Buy: Target: Upside: 3: Robust Profitability GM $71 20% • Full-Sized Pickup Sales Leader in the United States • Largest YOY US market share gain since 1990 in Full Sized Trucks & SUVS • Rise in sales in China, especially new SUVs, Cadillac(up 56% YOY) and Buick(up 28% YOY), due to an increasing market preference for large MPVs and luxury vehicles • 22 GM vehicles will include Super Cruise by 2023, help of Microsoft Azura to enhance and commercialize self driving vehicles • GM announced a partnership with Honda to mass scale their AVs • EBIT margin has been increasing steadily since 2018 AV Industry Operating Profit Turnaround $B $B 50.0 1750 4.0 40.0 3.0 1500 30.0 2.0 1250 20.0 1.0 1000 0.0 10.0 Q4 2019 Q1 2020 Q2 2020 Q3 2020 Q4 2020 750 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 -1.0 0.0 Consumer Discretionary Consumer Sector March 15, 2021 Buy: Target: Upside: 3: Value Proposition GM $71 20% *As of Q4 2020 General Motors Ford Honda Tesla EBIT Margin 9.9% 4.8% 4.0% 5.4% YOY Sales Growth 5.0% -12.5% -8.9% 46% ROIC 2.69% -2.72% 1.71% 5.08% FCF (2020) 9.5B 7.9B 5.7B 1.9B Cars Sold (2020) 2.9M 2.1M 4.8M .5M Price to Sales .63 .38 .40 25.51 Consumer Discretionary Consumer Sector March 15, 2021 Buy: Target: Upside: Other Initiatives: Hydrogen GM $71 20% • Hydrogen Fuel Cell: Combines hydrogen and oxygen to produce electricity w/water & heat as byproducts • In infant stages: infrastructure is small but growing • Feb. 2021: Announcement of Navistar partnership for long-haul trucks using GM’s Hydrotec fuel cell power cubes to be rolled out in 2024 • Increases diversity of GM’s product offerings, which provides sustainability to competitive edge • Growing support: ~50 targets, mandates, and policy incentives in place today that directly support hydrogen, with majority focused on transport Benefits of Hydrogen Fuel Cells Hydrogen Fuel Cell Market Size (in mns) 40-60% energy 6,000 Can refuel at a efficient compared to 5,000 traditional gasoline 25% efficiency of gas- station in <5 minutes 4,000 powered cars 3,000 Costs of producing EU will invest $430B in 2,000 hydrogen from green hydrogen by renewables could fall 2030 to help achieve 1,000 30% by 2030 goals of Green Deal 0 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 Consumer Discretionary Consumer Sector March 15, 2021 Buy: Target: Upside: Valuation GM $71 20% 52 Week High/Low Assumptions • WACC: 5.2% Analyst PT • Terminal EV/EBIT: 18x • Terminal Growth Rate: 1.5% FWD P/E FWD EV/EBIT Sensitivity Analyses FWD EV/EBITDA DCF Terminal Multiple DCF Gordon Growth $0 $20 $40 $60 $80 $100 Consumer Discretionary Consumer Sector March 15, 2021 Buy: Target: Upside: ESG Analysis GM $71 20% Energy Consumption Improvements Waste Management Improvements Employee Gender
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