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Clinton Versus Obama — a Race for the Ages

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Clinton Versus Obama — a Race for the Ages CLINTON VERSUS OBAMA — A RACE FOR THE AGES David Herle David Herle, former national Liberal campaign co-chair, sees Clinton versus Obama as a race for the ages — exciting, dramatic, with one unpredicted twist and turn after another. A pollster himself, he feels “morally compelled to begin with a discussion of the problems the polling industry has had this primary season.” Far too often, the polls have been getting it wrong, and spectacularly wrong, in both directions. First they overestimated Obama’s vote in New Hampshire, then they underestimated it in South Carolina, before predicting a double-digit win for him in California, a state he lost by 10 points. Then there’s the media coverage, both “earned media” around the tours, paid media in advertising, and new media platforms on the Internet. Finally, there's the Obama effect: “There are so many things to consider,” including “the fact that he is the best orator of his generation.” Passionnant, théâtral, plein d’embûches et d’imprévus : le match Clinton-Obama est de ceux qui marquent l’histoire, estime David Herle, ancien coprésident de campagne des libéraux fédéraux. Lui-même spécialiste des sondages, il se sent « moralement tenu de commencer par une analyse des problèmes rencontrés par le milieu des enquêtes d’opinion tout au long des primaires ». Oui, beaucoup trop de sondeurs se sont trompés, quand ils ne se sont pas spectaculairement fourvoyés, dans un sens comme dans l’autre. D’abord en surestimant les résultats de Barack Obama au New Hampshire, puis en les sous-estimant en Caroline du Sud, avant de prédire son triomphe à deux chiffres en Californie, où il a plutôt perdu par 10 points. Sans oublier la couverture médiatique, celle des médias grand public, des publicités, mais aussi des nouvelles plates-formes en ligne. Enfin et surtout, il y a l’effet Obama, qui repose sur de multiples facteurs, y compris « le fait qu’il soit le meilleur orateur de sa génération ». anadians are paying an extraordinary amount of atten- election polls, the American Association for Public Opinion tion to the US presidential race, particularly the Research announced the formation of an ad hoc committee to C Democratic contest between Hillary Clinton and evaluate pre-election primary poll methodology and the spon- Barack Obama. It’s not primarily because people are concerned sorship of a public forum on the issue. That’s how serious the about the policy implications. Rather, people are caught up in credibility crisis is. By way of example, one of the more promi- this race because it offers the best of human drama that can be nent political polling companies in this cycle has been offered — candidates are up, then they are down; the historic Rasmussen Reports. On its Web site it claims to have been the possibility that a woman or an African American may be the most accurate pollsters in the 2004 election. So far it has been president; lifelong dreams and well-honed strategies lie in public wrong on the California Democratic race by 11 percentage ruin; the pollsters are crashing; the pundits are invariably wrong; points, the Alabama Democratic race by 19, the Georgia Bad Bill. It’s a novel, and each primary adds a new chapter. Democratic race by 20. It is not a singular example. John Zogby However, for those who study the craft of politics, is one of America’s pre-eminent political pollsters and his firm, each of these offers more than just human interest. There Zogby International, is large and successful. He was merely are serious implications to be drawn and lessons to be wrong by 16 points on the Democratic race in New Hampshire, learned. Here are some. by 13 points on the Democrats in South Carolina and by a shocking 23 points in California. And these problems are not s a professional pollster, I feel morally compelled to begin unique to the public pollsters. The Clinton camp — known for A with a discussion of the problems the polling industry has its heavy reliance on internal polling — clearly believed it was had with this primary season. The extent of the problem is not going to lose New Hampshire based on its own polling. It goes in any dispute. In fact, in the wake of the New Hampshire pre- without saying that when the polls are off by that margin, they 16 OPTIONS POLITIQUES MARS 2008 Clinton versus Obama — a race for the ages are worse than useless — they are provid- preference, they might appear to transparent. The problem all organiza- ing voters, campaign decision-makers others to be racially prejudiced. tions are having is that history is no and analysts with incorrect information Douglas Wilder is an African guide to this primary season. Most states on which to make decisions. American who, when running for gover- will set turnout records this year. In Iowa, nor of Virginia, was picked by polls to fewer than 125,000 Democrats partici- here are a wide variety of explana- win by 9 percent and actually won by less pated in the 2004 caucuses. In 2008, T tions of the challenges facing poll- than 1 percent. more than 230,000 did. In South sters in this primary season. (For those The phenomenon of “socially cor- Carolina fewer than 300,000 people par- who wish to learn in greater detail, I refer rect answers” is well known to the ticipated in the Democratic primary in you to the excellent Web site Canadian polling industry. It has his- 2004. This year almost 550,000 did. In pollster.com). Adding to the complexity torically manifested itself consistently Virginia, turnout for the Democratic pri- is the fact that the mistakes do not all go among Quebecers when they are asked mary jumped from just under 400,000 in in one direction. In Iowa and South about their support for the separatist 2004 to just under a million in 2008. Carolina, pollsters thought Obama option. Separatist support is consistent- Given the polarization around demo- graphics in this election, John Zogby is one of America’s pre-eminent political pollsters knowing who those addition- and his firm, Zogby International, is large and successful. He al voters are is critical to get- was merely wrong by 16 points on the Democratic race in ting the poll numbers right. Are they women? Are they New Hampshire, by 13 points on the Democrats in South African American? Are they Carolina and by a shocking 23 points in California. Hispanic? Are they well-off or low-income? Are they highly would likely win, but by nowhere near ly overstated in polls because it is seen educated or do they have minimal educa- the margins he won by. In New by some in Quebec to be more accept- tion? A surge in turnout by any of these Hampshire and California, some pollsters able to be a separatist than to be a fed- demographic segments has the potential picked Obama by large margins and eralist. It has been referred to as the to dramatically turn the result — espe- Clinton actually won — in California she Liberal “ballot box bonus” in Quebec. cially given that overall turnout rates are won by a large margin. After the shock of still low compared to a general election. New Hampshire, where polls showed he Wilder effect seemed like a plau- Most public polls do not have a large Obama building a significant lead follow- T sible, if not definitive, explanation enough sample size or a comprehensive ing his win in Iowa, many people attrib- for the New Hampshire Democratic pri- enough questionnaire to gauge these uted the discrepancy between the polls mary. However, events soon outstripped micro-markets accurately. and the actual results to the so-called it. Subsequent primaries revealed that One last explanation has to do with Wilder effect. It is defined by Wikipedia pollsters were underestimating Obama’s the “fluidity” of opinion in these primar- as follows: support, not overestimating it. It is now ies. The theory goes that primaries always The term Bradley effect or likely that the biggest underlying prob- have more last-minute decision-makers Wilder effect refers to an expla- lem — driven by the unusual appeal of than elections do. This is because in the nation advanced as the possible both the Clinton and Obama candidacies general election most people make their cause of a phenomenon which — is in determining who will actually decision on the basis of the Party they has led to inaccurate voter opin- vote in these primaries. Because most support, and don’t need to have as much ion polls in some American members of the general public do not information about the specific candi- political campaigns between a vote in presidential primaries, one of the dates to make a decision. In the primar- white candidate and a non- hidden methodologies applied by all ies, the voter does not have as easy a way white candidate. Specifically, pollsters is determining the “likely voter.” to differentiate candidates and therefore there have been instances in All organizations have “screens” they has to learn more about them. For many which such elections have seen develop to project likely voters. None are voters, much of this information comes the non-white candidate signifi- the same. Few are publicly available and late in the campaign, leading to late deci- cantly underperform with respect to the results predicted TABLE 1. CALIFORNIA PRIMARY by pre-election polls. Researchers who have studied Democrats Results Zogby Poll the issue theorize that some February 5 February 2-4 white voters gave inaccurate Clinton 52% 36% polling answers because of a Obama 42% 49% fear that by stating their true POLICY OPTIONS 17 MARCH 2008 David Herle sions.
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