© 2019 Beyond the Horizon AFGHANISTAN CRISIS WATCH International Strategic Studies Group ( 23 - 29 Dec 2019) www.behorizon.org Political Developments Peace Process Humanitarian Situation Mullah Hebatullah, the leader of the Taliban, agreed to a one-week ceasefire while Based on the latest report of UNICEF, 149 people died because of natural disasters, signing the peace agreement with the US, said sources close to the Taliban. Taliban and it is expected that 9.4 million people will need humanitarian aid. seems to start a ceasefire at the same time they start signing the peace agreement. ● According to the latest report by UNICEF, the following information are to be However, the US had announced previously that the ceasefire should start 10 days noticed: before signing the agreement (Ariana). ● More than 400,000 people in (the Rumi year) 1398 were internally displaced Following reports of the Taliban's consideration of a one-week ceasefire aimed at as a result of the war. moving forward the peace process, two sources in Kabul on Sunday said the group will ● Almost 300,000 people were negatively affected by the natural disasters out not agree to a truce before signing the peace deal with the United States – a deal that of which, 39,000 lost their houses. has been finalized in draft (Tolo). ● 149 people lost their lives in natural disasters (Ariana). Presidential Elections The government of Pakistan has offered 1,000 educational scholarships for the Afghan students for academic year of 2020. At least 100 other scholarships have been The EU and its Member States represented in Kabul welcome the announcement of allocated for women. It said that over 140 thousand students from all over Afghanistan the preliminary results of the presidential election in Afghanistan. The EU supports the have applied for these scholarships (Afghanistan Times). work of the IECC to conduct the crucial task of adjudicating complaints in a professional, independent and timely manner (EEAS). Findings of the Women and Children Legal Research Foundation (WCLRF), which conducted research in Kabul, Parwan, Balkh, Badakhshan, Nangarhar and Kandahar Afghanistan’s Electoral Complaints Commission said on Monday the election might go reveal that 62 percent of Afghan girls leave school between 13 and 15 years of age for to a second round as it begins reviewing thousands of complaints a day after the various reasons. Chief Executive Abdullah Abdullah said that war, poverty, forced preliminary result handed incumbent president Ashraf Ghani a narrow victory. Deen marriage, “undesirable culture” and domestic violence are the main causes that girls Mohammad Azimi, deputy head of the Electoral Complaints Commission, said there is do not attend school. The research showed that male members of the home decided a “strong possibility” the election would go to the second round. “Looking at the scope in 64 percent of the cases that the girls should not attend school, and 36 percent were of complaints and objections that needs a thorough review, there could be a run-off,” forced to leave for other reasons. Based on the Education Ministry statistics, 9.5 Azimi told Reuters. The review might take around five weeks, Azimi said, adding that million children are going to schools now and 39 percent of them are girls. The ministry thousands of complaints from candidates had already been filed (Reuters). said that at least 4 million children are deprived access to school (Tolo). Armed Conflict Economic Developments The war in Afghanistan continues to take an appalling toll on civilians. Civilian A senior Iranian official said a major railway connecting Iran and neighboring casualties recently surpassed 100,000 in the past 10 years alone, from the time the UN Afghanistan will be ready in March as construction of a key cross-border line is nearing Assistance Mission in Afghanistan (UNAMA) began systematic documentation of completion. Khatibi said a major part of 191-kilometer railway would be complete in civilian casualties in 2009 to the present (UNAMA). March or in April, 2019, allowing the two neighboring countries to kick off rail The Taliban staged a complex attack that killed at least 10 Afghan soldiers in the transportation. Iran has almost finished its part of the Khaf-Herat railway, which runs southern Helmand province. A powerful explosion first hit an army checkpoint late 139 kilometers in three sections straddling the border between the two countries. Friday, followed by an hours-long gunbattle. The attack also wounded four soldiers. Political Armed Conflict Humanitarian Corruption Reports in the Afghan media have suggested that the country is intent on completing Taliban claimed responsibility for the attack, saying the insurgents also seized weapons Situation Situation the fourth and final section of the project through partnership with an Italian and ammunition. The insurgents have a strong presence in Helmand province, contractor (Afghanistan Times). especially in Sangin district where the attack took place. The Taliban have increased Corruption their attacks in recent days against Afghan army bases and checkpoints across different provinces (NYT). ASSESSMENT: Razaq Ahmadzai, the co-leader of the Green Trend party, is expected to land a top job after the recent Afghan election. According to a Swedish outlet, though, he is still Taliban militants ambushed a government checkpoint in Balkh province in ● Despite the unbearable numbers of civilian casualties that urges warring parties to registered in Sweden under a different name, where he receives welfare benefits and Afghanistan's north, killing at least 15 members of the security forces (NYT). put an end to this decades-long conflict, violence has become business as usual in payments (Sputnik). At least 13 Taliban fighters including a key commander of the group were killed in an Afghanistan. Having witnessed to the wasted opportunities, Afghans shouldn’t The US and international contractors who have participated in rebuilding Afghanistan airstrike by Afghan forces in Khan Abad district of Kunduz province, said Ministry of expect much from a nationwide ceasefire between the Taliban and the Coalition are being accused of paying the Taliban to provide for their own safety, the Wall Street Defense (MoD) in a statement (Ariana). Forces/ANDSF even though it is highly likely in the coming days. A peace Journal (WSJ) reported. At least 12 Taliban fighters were killed and 6 others injured in a clash between Taliban The lawsuit was filed in federal court on Friday by the families of 143 US soldiers and insurgents and Afghan Special Forces in central Oruzgan province, Afghan Army said agreement between the Taliban and the U.S. might release U.S. Army from contractors who were killed or wounded in Afghanistan between 2009 and 2017. (Ariana). Afghanistan but has little to do with solving ‘intra-Afghan’ problems. Ghani and Among the companies sued are the two biggest contractors of the United States At least 17 members of public uprising forces were killed in an attack by the Taliban the Taliban do not have much in common and taking into account the fragmented Agency for International Development (USAID) - DAI Global LLC and Louis Berger Group insurgents in Takhar province on Saturday night, a local official confirmed (Ariana). and fragile nature of the young ‘Afghan democracy’ Taliban has no reason to - which were paid about $1 billion between 2007 and 2009. The Taliban released 27 peace activists Thursday, a day after they were abducted in an compromise. According to WSJ, DAI Global LLC and Louis Berger Group have refused to comment on ambush on their convoy in western Afghanistan, a leader of the activist organization ● While a second-round is still a possibility, international actors congratulate Ghani the lawsuits (Sputnik). said. Phone lines were down in the region, making communication difficult and the and show their explicit support to the Afghan government. This will give some reason for the activists' abduction was still unclear (NYT). Opinion advantage to the government when they sit around the table with the Taliban. A number of inhabits in northern Jawzjan province has said that Taliban militants have ● America never committed to training Afghan forces. I know because I tried, situated monthly 50 Afs extortion per family in Manjang district of the Jawzjan Jason Dempsey, The Washington Post, 24 December 2019. province. If the residents didn’t pay, the Taliban would not allow them to live there Further Reading (Afghanistan Times). ❏ A Turning Point in World History: 40 years ago, the Soviet Union invaded The Ministry of Defense on Friday said that the number of soldiers in the ranks of the Afghanistan, Thomas Ruttig, Afghanistan Analysts’ Network, 25 December Afghan National Army (ANA) is supposed to be around 234,000 officers, however, 2019. currently there are about 200,000 soldiers serving in the force (Tolo). © 2019 Beyond the Horizon AFGHANISTAN CRISIS WATCH International Strategic Studies Group ( 16 - 22 Dec 2019) www.behorizon.org Political Developments Peace Process GEN. MILLEY: I know there's an assertion out there of some sort of coordinated lie over the course of, say, 18 years. I find that a bit of a stretch. More than a bit of a stretch; I A former Taliban commander said Saturday that the truce would long for 10 days and find that a mischaracterization, from my own personal experience. You're looking at would coincide with the peace deal between the US and the insurgents. The Taliban probably hundreds of general officers, State Department employees, CIA, Department were offered by the US envoy for Afghan peace Zalmay Khalilzad to accept a 10-day of Defense folks. I just don't think that you can get that level of coordination to do that long ceasefire, and the militants are consulting with their leadership whether to accept kind of deception. the offer. As far as military victory, for years we have clearly stated that there is not going to be a Acting Minister of Foreign Affairs Idrees Zaman met with the Ambassador of the rational, reasonable chance of a military victory against the Taliban or the insurgency, Federal Republic of Germany in Afghanistan, Mr.