Intel's Capacity Expansion Plans Beginning to Emerge As Return to Process Technology and Manufacturing Prowess Leadership Drives Strategic Vision

Semiconductor Capital Equipment

INDUSTRY UPDATE July 23, 2021

Intel's Capacity Expansion Plans Beginning to Emerge as Return to Process Technology and Manufacturing Prowess Leadership Drives Strategic Vision

Key Points On Thursday after the market close, Intel (INTC, Suspended, $55.96) reported 2Q21 (June) earnings results. From our coverage universe perspective, we believe there were two key takeaways. First, on the capex end, the company reiterated its $19-20 billion plan for 2021, but did note that additional capacity was likely forthcoming (in places like Europe) in the future. We noted in our preview (see our note, Semi Cap Update: Prospective Intel 2022 Capex Increase Highlights Intensifying Foundry Arms Race and Support for Our Secular, Long-Term Equipment Growth Thesis, July 15) that our checks suggest that 2022 capex would likely increase from 2021 as Intel prepares for its internal 7nm production and its emerging foundry business. We believe the foundry build out will likely be a multi-year initiative with capacity additions dependent on its traction qualifying new customers. Secondly, based on limited comments on its earnings call, it appears its 7nm efforts are on track (as it will begin risk production and start up costs in 2H21) and on the foundry end, it has begun to work with potential customers, with approximately 100 in its current pipeline. On Monday, Intel will be hosting another webcast called “Intel Accelerated” where it is likely to provide an update on its 7nm node, the changes made to accelerate its future node transitions, the efforts to use this technology in its foundry initiative, and a more detailed update on its advanced packaging opportunities.

In our view, while there are clearly many challenges ahead for Intel, we believe CEO Pat Gelsinger is bringing Intel “back to its roots.” Intel’s greatest success (under its prior CEOs, like Andy Grove) came when it possessed both process technology leadership and manufacturing prowess. Indeed, when one examines the current semiconductor landscape, the largest companies (and the most profitable) are the likes of TSMC and Samsung, which lead in process technology and manufacturing capacity. In our view, over the past decade, Intel strayed from this strategic vision, which led to it being overtaken on a process technology basis (to TSMC) and share loss (in both PC/client and data center). We believe Mr. Gelsinger is bringing back Intel’s tried-and-true strategy, and if the company executes, it can regain its standing atop the semiconductor industry. From an equipment perspective, we believe Intel’s efforts on both of these fronts will prove to be a strong tailwind for equipment companies over the next several years. Those companies that can differentiate on process technology and can supply the volume capacity Intel likely requires should be key players in Intel’s evolving ecosystem.

From a capacity expansion perspective, there were no major surprises in Intel’s reiteration of its 2021 capex plan of $19-20 billion. For 2020, there is a mix of both new infrastructure (two new Arizona facilities for its foundry business) and equipment (10nm production, 7nm pilot). Management noted on the call that it had achieved a crossover where its 10nm products now make up more revenues/wafer starts than its 14nm node. While it did not provide any capex view for 2022 (and beyond), it did note it was seeking additional capacity in both Europe and in the U.S. Our recent checks indicated that its 2022 capex plan would likely increase meaningfully and with a higher percentage of equipment spending. We believe its initial foray with the two Arizona fabs are just the start to additional capacity over the next several years. We believe Intel will be looking at adding both leading-edge and mature node technologies (more likely a facility in Europe), particularly for its foundry efforts.

In terms of an update on its 7nm node and foundry initiative, management was limited in its comments as it plans another forum on Monday to go into greater detail. However, on both fronts, we believe the company continues to progress and roadmaps appear on track. In terms of 7nm, management noted that part of the pressure on gross margins in the second half of the year would be due to “start-up costs” (related to 7nm). We believe this implies that Intel is preparing risk production qualifications to begin sometime in 2H21, with initial tape outs sometime in 2022. On the foundry end, the company continues its fab infrastructure build of its two new Arizona fabs. Qualitatively, management cited that it continues to explore additional fab sites (notably in Europe and U.S.), but would not be building capacity just for capacity sake (i.e. “build it and hope they will come). The company plans to build its customer base and build capacity accordingly. Management did note it was in discussions with approximately 100 potential customers, and this pipeline gives it confidence that these capacity expansion plans will be filled and deliver profitability for Intel.

Patrick J. Ho | (214) 647-3509 | [email protected] Brian Chin, CFA | (281) 655-4015 | [email protected] Stifel Equity Trading Desk | (800) 424-8870

Stifel does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. All relevant disclosures and certifications appear on pages 3 - 7 of this report. Industry Update July 23, 2021

“Intel Accelerated”—An Update on its Efforts to Reclaim its Process Technology Leadership Throne Management noted on its earnings call that it would be hosting another webcast this Monday, called “Intel Accelerated.” We believe this forum will focus on its process technology (which likely includes an update on its 7nm node), how it can apply this technology in its foundry initiative, and a more detailed look at its advanced packaging roadmap. We believe its 7nm roadmap is currently on track, and our checks indicate that the pickup in EUV system orders on the logic end was driven primarily by Intel (i.e. another positive indicator that 7nm is on track). We believe management may highlight some of the efforts where it is “simplifying” the processes and how it applies next-generation technologies (such as nanowires) to accelerate innovation. With litho shrinks becoming less of a driver for improved device performance, new materials and architectures are likely needed to foster these node transitions. We believe its efforts will help reduce the cadence of its technology node transitions and help Intel improve its competitiveness on the most advanced nodes. We believe process technology will play a major role in its foundry initiative. Over time, we believe Intel can offer a wide range of process technologies and across different nodes depending on the marketplace (and the device needs). We believe this aspect will be a differentiator as the same customer could require different process technology nodes across their vast product portfolios. Leading players, like TSMC and Samsung, can offer multiple products across different nodes (and even across different markets for Samsung, which includes memory). We believe Intel will attempt to position itself similarly. Finally, we expect an update on its advanced packaging efforts, which can also be a key differentiator and what could help deliver both technology and cost advantages. Its Foveros technology is the beginning of its advanced packaging roadmap, and as devices become more complex, we believe Intel will highlight some of its next-generation processes. We remind investors the importance of advanced packaging, as this aspect greatly aided TSMC (and its InFO process) in winning the Apple mobile application processor business from Samsung. It was the cost and technology advantages that InFO provided that greatly swayed Apple to make this supplier switch. Our checks indicate that Intel is putting significant resources in advanced packaging and this area could become a differentiator over time. Intel Remains a Key Player in Our Semi Cap Secular Growth Thesis As we have noted for some time, we believe Intel is part of an emerging “arms race” that pits it against the other leaders in the industry, TSMC and Samsung (see our note, Semi Cap Update: The Giants in the Industry Begin the "Arms Race"... Further Validation for Long-Term Equipment Secular Growth Outlook, April 1). In general, the equipment industry will be the largest beneficiary of this evolving landscape. From a coverage universe perspective, we believe the names best exposed to Intel include Applied Materials (AMAT, Buy, $137.18) and KLA Corp. (KLAC, Buy, $314.36). Applied is the lead supplier in many process steps (such as PECVD, PVD, epitaxial, CMP, and ion implant to name just a few) and KLA is the lead supplier on key inspection and metrology steps throughout Intel’s process. Moreover, we believe both companies will be among the largest beneficiaries from its foundry initiative and could see capital intensity increases in some of their respective business segments. From a materials and consumables perspective, Entegris (ENTG, Buy, $118.41) has a strong presence with Intel, while on the components end, the largest parts cleaning customer for Ultra Clean (UCTT, Buy, $51.41) is Intel. On the advanced packaging front, we believe Onto Innovation (ONTO, Buy, $66.18) could be the largest beneficiary from Intel’s Foveros technology (while Intel is also a customer on the front-end in its OCD metrology business).

Prices updated market close 07.22.21

2 Industry Update July 23, 2021

Important Disclosures and Certifications

We, Patrick J. Ho and Brian Chin, certify that our respective views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our respective personal views about the subject securities or issuers; and we, Patrick J. Ho and Brian Chin, certify that no part of our compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views contained in this research report. Our European Policy for Managing Research Conflicts of Interest is available at www.stifel.com/institutional/ ImportandDisclosures.

Applied Materials, Inc. (AMAT) as of July 22, 2021 (in USD)

05/17/2018 08/16/2018 11/14/2018 02/11/2019 05/16/2019 11/12/2019 11/14/2019 02/12/2020 04/07/2020 05/15/2020 08/14/2020 11/12/2020 53.96 47.43 33.58 39.90 41.66 56.42 56.96 65.37 47.56 52.04 67.62 69.80 B:75.00 B:70.00 B:63.00 B:53.00 B:57.00 B:67.00 B:72.00 B:80.00 B:65.00 B:75.00 B:85.00 B:90.00 160

140 120

100

80 60 Price (USD) Price 40 20 Jul-16 Oct-16 Jan-17 Apr-17 Jul-17 Oct-17 Jan-18 Apr-18 Jul-18 Oct-18 Jan-19 Apr-19 Jul-19 Oct-19 Jan-20 Apr-20 Jul-20 Oct-20 Jan-21 Apr-21 Jul-21 Oct-21 12/21/2020 02/15/2021 04/05/2021 05/21/2021 86.41 116.70 143.05 128.66 B:107.00 B:140.00 B:160.00 B:170.00

*Represents the value(s) that changed. Buy=B; Hold=H; Sell=S; Discontinued=D; Suspended=SU; Discontinued=D; Initiation=I

For a price chart with our ratings and target price changes for AMAT go to http://stifel2.bluematrix.com/sellside/Disclosures.action?ticker=AMAT

Entegris, Inc. (ENTG) as of July 22, 2021 (in USD)

07/02/2018 10/25/2018 04/25/2019 07/25/2019 10/24/2019 02/04/2020 06/08/2020 07/23/2020 10/22/2020 12/07/2020 02/02/2021 04/27/2021 34.45 25.37 38.98 43.06 47.57 55.72 62.14 69.65 78.63 97.67 98.11 114.78 B:46.00 B:43.00 B:45.00 B:49.00 B:54.00 B:60.00 B:70.00 B:81.00 B:91.00 B:115.00 B:118.00 B:127.00 140

120 100

80 60 40 Price (USD) Price 20 0 Jul-16 Oct-16 Jan-17 Apr-17 Jul-17 Oct-17 Jan-18 Apr-18 Jul-18 Oct-18 Jan-19 Apr-19 Jul-19 Oct-19 Jan-20 Apr-20 Jul-20 Oct-20 Jan-21 Apr-21 Jul-21 Oct-21

*Represents the value(s) that changed. Buy=B; Hold=H; Sell=S; Discontinued=D; Suspended=SU; Discontinued=D; Initiation=I

For a price chart with our ratings and target price changes for ENTG go to http://stifel2.bluematrix.com/sellside/Disclosures.action?ticker=ENTG

3 Industry Update July 23, 2021

KLA Corporation (KLAC) as of July 22, 2021 (in USD)

04/27/2018 07/30/2018 10/30/2018 01/30/2019 03/04/2019 03/07/2019 05/07/2019 08/05/2019 09/16/2019 10/31/2019 02/05/2020 04/07/2020 102.18 106.30 91.60 105.98 116.71 114.63 116.96 126.46 151.19 169.04 171.28 147.27 B:143.00 B:152.00 B:148.00 B:124.00 B:130.00 B:135.00 B:145.00 B:151.00 B:170.00 B:191.00 B:184.00 B:178.00 400

350 300

250

200 150 Price (USD) Price 100

50 Jul-16 Oct-16 Jan-17 Apr-17 Jul-17 Oct-17 Jan-18 Apr-18 Jul-18 Oct-18 Jan-19 Apr-19 Jul-19 Oct-19 Jan-20 Apr-20 Jul-20 Oct-20 Jan-21 Apr-21 Jul-21 Oct-21 05/06/2020 06/22/2020 08/04/2020 09/21/2020 10/29/2020 12/21/2020 02/04/2021 03/15/2021 04/30/2021 163.81 191.86 204.90 181.10 201.95 260.77 294.23 298.96 315.35 B:191.00 H:191.00 H:211.00 B:211.00 B:232.00 B:300.00 B:320.00 B:360.00 B:380.00

*Represents the value(s) that changed. Buy=B; Hold=H; Sell=S; Discontinued=D; Suspended=SU; Discontinued=D; Initiation=I

For a price chart with our ratings and target price changes for KLAC go to http://stifel2.bluematrix.com/sellside/Disclosures.action?ticker=KLAC Onto Innovation Inc. (ONTO) as of July 22, 2021 (in USD)

05/28/2018 10/30/2018 02/05/2019 05/01/2019 10/28/2019 02/07/2020 04/09/2020 12/21/2020 02/04/2021 03/15/2021 04/29/2021 38.67 31.83 30.69 36.29 34.92 38.45 32.11 47.49 60.12 64.94 65.57 H:40.00 B:40.00 B:37.00 B:40.00 B:42.00 B:48.00 B:45.00 B:53.00 B:70.00 B:79.00 B:84.00 80

70 60 50

30 Price (USD) Price 20 10 Jul-16 Oct-16 Jan-17 Apr-17 Jul-17 Oct-17 Jan-18 Apr-18 Jul-18 Oct-18 Jan-19 Apr-19 Jul-19 Oct-19 Jan-20 Apr-20 Jul-20 Oct-20 Jan-21 Apr-21 Jul-21 Oct-21

*Represents the value(s) that changed. Buy=B; Hold=H; Sell=S; Discontinued=D; Suspended=SU; Discontinued=D; Initiation=I

For a price chart with our ratings and target price changes for ONTO go to http://stifel2.bluematrix.com/sellside/Disclosures.action?ticker=ONTO Ultra Clean Holdings, Inc. (UCTT) as of July 22, 2021 (in USD)

06/18/2018 07/27/2018 10/24/2018 11/07/2018 01/29/2019 05/03/2019 10/31/2019 11/18/2019 02/20/2020 04/13/2020 04/30/2020 07/29/2020 17.19 14.48 9.90 10.30 11.01 14.49 21.37 22.34 26.08 15.90 18.39 24.82 B:30.00 B:26.00 B:21.00 B:18.00 B:15.00 B:17.00 B:21.00 H:21.00 H:25.00 H:21.00 H:23.00 H:26.00 70 60

50 40

20 Price (USD) Price 10

0 Jul-16 Oct-16 Jan-17 Apr-17 Jul-17 Oct-17 Jan-18 Apr-18 Jul-18 Oct-18 Jan-19 Apr-19 Jul-19 Oct-19 Jan-20 Apr-20 Jul-20 Oct-20 Jan-21 Apr-21 Jul-21 Oct-21 09/21/2020 10/28/2020 12/21/2020 02/17/2021 03/15/2021 04/29/2021 21.56 21.64 32.68 50.69 55.54 52.73 B:26.00 B:28.00 B:38.00 B:60.00 B:65.00 B:71.00

*Represents the value(s) that changed. Buy=B; Hold=H; Sell=S; Discontinued=D; Suspended=SU; Discontinued=D; Initiation=I

For a price chart with our ratings and target price changes for UCTT go to

4 Industry Update July 23, 2021

http://stifel2.bluematrix.com/sellside/Disclosures.action?ticker=UCTT

Entegris, Inc. is a client of Stifel or an affiliate or was a client of Stifel or an affiliate within the past 12 months.

Entegris, Inc. is provided with non-securities related services by Stifel or an affiliate or was provided with non-securities related services by Stifel or an affiliate within the past 12 months.

Stifel or an affiliate has received compensation for non-securities related services from Entegris, Inc. in the past 12 months.

Stifel or an affiliate expects to receive or intends to seek compensation for investment banking services from Applied Materials, Inc., Entegris, Inc., KLA Corporation, Onto Innovation Inc. and Ultra Clean Holdings, Inc. in the next 3 months.

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