Albertans' Views on Stephen Mandel's Alberta Party

ALBERTANS’ VIEWS ON STEPHEN MANDEL’S ALBERTA PARTY

FEBRUARY 2018

Permission to reproduce, redistribute and/or refer to our copyrighted property is granted on the condition that all such use gives proper attribution to the “ThinkHQ/Metro News Poll”. www.thinkhq.com | 1 RESEARCH METHODOLOGY

• Study fielded via online research panel

− Field dates: January 30 to February 4, 2018

− Panel source: Voice of Alberta & Angus Reid Forum

• n=1185

• Weighted to reflect gender, age and region of Alberta population according to Stats Canada

• This online survey utilizes a representative but non-random sample, therefore margin of error is not applicable. However, a probability sample of this size would yield a margin of error of +/- 2.9 percentage points at a 95% confidence interval

• Accuracy of sub-samples of the data decline based on sample sizes

February 2018 ThinkHQ/Metro News Copyright © 2018 ThinkHQ Public Affairs Inc. All rights reserved Want to make your voice heard? Join now: www.voiceofalberta.com | 2 REGIONAL SAMPLE SIZES AND MARGINS OF ERROR

Total Interviews Total Interviews Margin of Error (Unweighted) (Weighted) (Associated with a (n) (n) probability sample of this size)

ALBERTA TOTAL 1185 1185 +/- 2.9

Calgary 438 397 +/- 4.7

Edmonton 339 361 +/- 5.3

North 102 153 +/- 9.7

Central 153 143 +/- 7.9

South 153 130 +/- 7.9

February 2018 ThinkHQ/Metro News Copyright © 2018 ThinkHQ Public Affairs Inc. All rights reserved Want to make your voice heard? Join now: www.voiceofalberta.com | 3 ALBERTANS’ VIEWS ON STEPHEN MANDEL’S ALBERTA PARTY

If the intent of Greg Clark’s resignation and subsequent Alberta Party leadership race was to capture the imagination of Albertans and drive party growth prior to the next provincial election, the strategy is having limited success in terms of public perception. Freshly-minted Alberta Party leader Stephen Mandel has reasonably positive personal appeal among voters – 29% approve of Mandel vs. while 25% disapprove. That said, despite three terms as Edmonton’s mayor and a brief stint as a PC cabinet minister, almost one-half (46%) of Albertans don’t know enough about Mandel to offer a rating of him. • Not surprisingly, Mandel is best-known in Edmonton, but even here positive impressions of the Alberta Party leader are only modestly positive – 43% approve vs. 40% disapprove • Mandel is well regarded by likely Alberta Party voters (59% approval), but those intending to vote for the NDP disapprove of Mandel 2:1 At this stage, Mandel’s leadership of the Alberta Party doesn’t “move the needle” in terms of voter preferences. Mock-ballot returns with Mandel as Alberta Party leader show little variance from generic ballot results: If the election were held today, Mandel’s Alberta Party would capture 11% of the decided vote province-wide, well back of the UCP (51%) and NDP (33%). • Even in Edmonton, Mandel’s leadership contributes only a nominal bump in Alberta Party fortunes compared to the generic ballot Though there hasn’t been a groundswell in public interest in the recent Alberta Party leadership, the selection process may be successful for the party in other ways – membership sales, donations, building constituency association capacity, etc. The coming months will tell if these other measures of success are hitting their mark.

Would you generally say you approve or disapprove of each of the following?

Strongly approve Somewhat approve Somewhat disapprove Strongly disapprove Unsure Net 44% 41% ‘Approve’

Jason Kenney 23% 21% 9% 32% 15% +3

37% 57%

Rachel Notley 19% 18% 15% 42% 6% -20

29% 25%

Stephen Mandel 6% 23% 10% 15% 46% +4

17% 41%

David Khan1% 16% 20% 21% 42% -24

% Albertans

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Based upon your personal feelings would you say that you approve or disapprove of each as a potential new Alberta Party leader?

Tot al Region Next Provincial Vote

Calgary Edmonton Small Alberta Rural NDP UPC AP LIB Unsure (1185) (City) (City) Urban (153) (327) (515) (105) (46)* (143) (377) (296) (359)

Approve 29% 17% 43% 29% 27% 20% 27% 59% 47% 28% Stephen Disapprove 25% 15% 40% 25% 23% 42% 21% 12% 13% 18% Mandel Unsure 46% 68% 17% 46% 50% 38% 52% 29% 40% 55%

Approve 17% 14% 19% 17% 18% 14% 16% 36% 20% 11% Rick Disapprove 14% 14% 14% 13% 15% 20% 13% 16% 9% 4% Fraser Unsure 69% 72% 67% 71% 67% 66% 71% 48% 71% 85%

Approve 12% 10% 14% 13% 10% 20% 7% 24% 16% 5% Kara Disapprove 13% 12% 11% 12% 17% 9% 16% 24% 6% 5% Levis Unsure 75% 77% 75% 74% 74% 71% 78% 52% 79% 90%

*Caution: small sample size

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Based upon your personal feelings would you say that you approve or disapprove of each as a potential new Alberta Party leader?

Tot al Age Education Gender

Uni Alberta <35 35-54 55+ HS or less Some PS Male Female (1185) (363) (479) (343) (195) (255) Grad+ (585) (600) (735)

Approve 29% 25% 31% 30% 25% 30% 29% 31% 27% Stephen Disapprove 25% 22% 25% 29% 18% 26% 27% 31% 19% Mandel Unsure 46% 53% 44% 41% 57% 44% 44% 38% 54%

Approve 17% 14% 16% 20% 10% 23% 16% 19% 14% Rick Disapprove 14% 14% 13% 15% 11% 13% 15% 19% 8% Fraser Unsure 69% 72% 71% 65% 80% 64% 69% 61% 77%

Approve 12% 12% 12% 11% 5% 9% 15% 14% 10% Kara Disapprove 13% 8% 13% 17% 10% 16% 12% 16% 9% Levis Unsure 75% 80% 74% 72% 85% 75% 73% 69% 81%

February 2018 ThinkHQ/Metro News Copyright © 2018 ThinkHQ Public Affairs Inc. All rights reserved Want to make your voice heard? Join now: www.voiceofalberta.com | 7 ‘MOST LIKELY’ SUPPORT FOR POTENTIAL ALBERTA PARTY LEADER CANDIDATES VS. OTHER PARTIES/LEADERS -DECIDED VOTE

Next we’d like to get your thoughts on how some of these potential candidates might compare to other parties/leaders in a provincial election. If a provincial election were held tomorrow, which one of the following parties’ candidate would you, yourself, be most likely to support?

GENERIC BALLOT IF AB PARTY LED BY STEPHEN MANDEL

UCP 51% UCP led by Jason Kenney 51%

NDP 32% NDP led by Rachel Notley 33%

AB Party 10% AB Party led by Stephen Mandel 11%

Liberals 5% Liberals led by David Khan 4%

% Decided Vote | (n=1009) % Decided Vote | (n=993)

IF AB PARTY LED BY KARA LEVIS IF AB PARTY LED BY RICK FRASER

UCP led by Jason Kenney 54% UCP led by Jason Kenney 53%

NDP led by Rachel Notley 34% NDP led by Rachel Notley 34%

AB Party led by Kara Levis 7% AB Party led by Rick Fraser 8%

Liberals led by David Khan 6% Liberals led by David Khan 5%

% Decided Vote | (n=981) % Decided Vote | (n=975)

February 2018 ThinkHQ/Metro News Copyright © 2018 ThinkHQ Public Affairs Inc. All rights reserved Want to make your voice heard? Join now: www.voiceofalberta.com | 8 ‘MOST LIKELY’ SUPPORT FOR POTENTIAL ALBERTA PARTY LEADER CANDIDATES VS. OTHER PARTIES/LEADERS -DECIDED VOTE BY REGION

Region

Calgary Calgary Edmonton Edmonton Small North Central South Rural (CMA) (City) (CMA) (City) (136) (120) (110) Urban (131) GENERIC BALLOT (336) (316) (307) (251) (311)

UCP 51% 55% 53% 34% 31% 56% 69% 62% 55% 75%

NDP 32% 33% 34% 47% 49% 25% 13% 21% 26% 13%

Alberta Party 10% 8% 8% 11% 11% 12% 14% 11% 14% 8%

Liberals 5% 3% 3% 8% 8% 3% 2% 5% 4% 1%

% Decided Vote | (n=1009) Calgary Calgary Edmonton Edmonton Small North Central South Rural (CMA) (City) (CMA) (City) -0.1 0.4 0.9 (139) (122) (106) Urban (135) IF AB PARTY LED BY MANDEL (328) (311) (298) (242) (305) UCP 51% 56% 55% 33% 30% 55% 66% 63% 53% 74%

NDP 33% 33% 34% 47% 50% 29% 14% 23% 29% 12%

Alberta Party 11% 7% 7% 13% 13% 14% 16% 9% 15% 10%

Liberals 4% 4% 4% 6% 6% 2% 4% 5% 3% 4%

% Decided Vote | (n=993)

February 2018 ThinkHQ/Metro News Copyright © 2018 ThinkHQ Public Affairs Inc. All rights reserved Want to make your voice heard? Join now: www.voiceofalberta.com | 9 Want to have your say about topics and issues that affect Albertans?

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Permission to reproduce, redistribute and/or refer to our copyrighted property is granted on the condition that all such use gives proper attribution to the “ThinkHQ/Metro News Poll”.