Western Europe Pay TV Operator Forecasts

Table of Contents

Published in September 2016, this 150-page electronically-delivered report comes in two parts:

 A 118-page PDF giving a global executive summary, country/operator analysis and forecasts.  An excel workbook giving comparison tables and country-by-country forecasts in detail for 73 operators with 104 platforms across 17 territories for every year from 2010 to 2021.

Countries and operators covered:

Country No of ops Operators Austria 3 Telekom Austria; UPC; Sky Belgium 5 Belgacom; ; ; VOO; Telesat/TV Vlaanderen Denmark 6 ; Viasat; You See; Stofa; Boxer; TDC Finland 6 Plus TV; ; Teliasonera; DNA; Canal Digital; Viasat France 7 Orange; SFR; CanalSat; Numericable; Free; Bouygues; TNT Germany 6 Kabel Deutschland; Vodafone; DT/T-Home; Sky; Unitymedia; Telecolumbus Iceland 2 Vodafone, Siminn Ireland 3 UPC; Sky; Italy 3 Mediaset; Sky; Telecom Italia Luxembourg 1 Tele des P&T Netherlands 5 UPC/; ; Tele 2; KPN/ Norway 5 Canal Digital; Viasat; Riks TV; ; Get Portugal 4 Meo/PT; NOS/Zon; Nowo/Cabovisao; Vodafone Spain 4 Ono/Vodafone; Canal Plus/Telefonica/Movistar; Euskatel; Orange Sweden 6 Canal Digital; Viasat; ; Telia; Boxer; Telenor Switzerland 3 ; UPC/Cablecom; Sunrise UK 4 Sky; Virgin; BT; TalkTalk

Forecasts (2010-2021) contain the following detail for each country:

By country: TV households Digital cable subs Analog cable subs Pay IPTV subscribers Pay digital satellite TV subs Pay DTT homes Total pay TV subscribers Pay TV revenues

By operator (and by platform by operator): Pay TV subscribers Share of pay TV subscribers by operator Subscription & VOD revenues Share of pay TV revenues by operator ARPU

Four companies control half of Western Europe’s pay TV subs

The 73 top operators collectively accounted for 93% of Western Europe’s pay TV subscribers by end-2015. Despite adding 7 million subscribers to take their total to 97.26 million, this proportion will fall slightly - to 92% - of the region’s 105 million pay TV subscribers by 2021. , Sky Europe, Vodafone and will jointly continue to account for half the region’s pay TV subs.

Western Europe pay TV platforms by subs gains (2021/2015)

-7 DTT 1

-1 IPTV 29

-14 Satellite 7

-12 Cable 12

-20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35

Losing Gaining

Source: Digital TV Research. Note: 21 of the 24 cable platforms are both analog and digital and three are digital only.

Covering 104 platforms across 17 countries in the Western Europe Pay TV Operator Forecasts report, 29 of the 30 IPTV platforms will gain subscribers between 2015 and 2021. However, 14 of the 21 satellite platforms and seven of the eight DTT operators will lose subscribers during the same period. Perhaps surprising considering the fall-off from the analog transition is that half of the cable platforms will gain subs.

Top five multinational pay TV operators by subscribers (000) Operator 2015 Operator 2021 Liberty Global 18,542 Liberty Global 17,396 Sky Europe (satellite only) 16,938 Sky Europe (satellite only) 17,292 Vodafone 8,691 Vodafone 9,021 Altice 4,629 Altice 5,546 Telefonica 3,541 Telefonica 4,769 Source: Digital TV Research

With operations in eight Western European countries, Liberty Global is the region’s largest operator by pay TV subs. Counting only its satellite TV subs, Sky Europe (with operations in five countries) is rapidly closing the gap. Liberty Global will lose 1.15 million subs (mostly analog ones) between 2015 and 2021 whereas Telefonica will gain 1.23 million and Altice nearly 1 million.

The 73 top operators generated 93% of Western Europe’s $30.61 billion pay TV subscription and PPV revenues in 2015. This proportion will hold steady until 2021, although overall revenues will not grow. Liberty Global and Sky Europe will together continue to take just under half of the region’s revenues.

For more information on the Western Europe Pay TV Operator Forecasts report, please contact: Simon Murray, [email protected], Tel: +44 20 8248 5051

Digital TV Research publication schedule for 2016 Title Publication Price Date 1 Digital TV Sub-Saharan Africa Forecasts January £900/$1350/€1125 2 Digital TV Middle East & North Africa January £900/$1350/€1125 Forecasts 3 Digital TV Asia Pacific Forecasts March £900/$1350/€1125 4 Digital TV Latin America Forecasts March £900/$1350/€1125 5 Digital TV North America Forecasts March £500/$750/€625 6 Digital TV Eastern Europe Forecasts April £900/$1350/€1125 7 Digital TV Western Europe Forecasts April £900/$1350/€1125 8 Digital TV World Household Forecasts April £1300/$1950/€1625 9 Digital TV World Revenue Forecasts May £1300/$1950/€1625 10 Digital TV World Databook May £800/$1200/€1000 11 Middle East & Africa OTT TV & Video Forecasts May £900/$1350/€1125 12 Asia Pacific OTT TV & Video Forecasts June £900/$1350/€1125 13 Latin America OTT TV & Video Forecasts June £900/$1350/€1125 14 North America OTT TV & Video Forecasts June £500/$750/€625 15 Eastern Europe OTT TV & Video Forecasts July £900/$1350/€1125 16 Western Europe OTT TV & Video Forecasts July £900/$1350/€1125 17 Global OTT TV & Video Forecasts July £1500/$2250/€1875 18 Asia Pacific Pay TV Operator Forecasts August £900/$1350/€1125 19 Middle East & Africa Pay TV Operator August £900/$1350/€1125 Forecasts 20 Latin America Pay TV Operator Forecasts August £900/$1350/€1125 21 North America Pay TV Operator September £500/$750/€625 Forecasts 22 Eastern Europe Pay TV Operator September £900/$1350/€1125 Forecasts 23 Western Europe Pay TV Operator September £900/$1350/€1125 Forecasts 24 Global Pay TV Operator Forecasts October £1500/$2250/€1875 25 Middle East & Africa SVOD Forecasts October £900/$1350/€1125 26 Asia Pacific SVOD Forecasts October £900/$1350/€1125 27 Latin America SVOD Forecasts November £900/$1350/€1125 28 North America SVOD Forecasts November £500/$750/€625 29 Eastern Europe SVOD Forecasts November £900/$1350/€1125 30 Western Europe SVOD Forecasts December £900/$1350/€1125 31 Global SVOD Forecasts December £1500/$2250/€1875

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