JUNE 24, 2011 COMMENTARY pacificbusinessnews.com | PACIFIC BUSINESS NEWS 39 ‘Big Wind’ can’t deliver the energy it promises The Bonneville matter of seconds, a huge level of fos- the 4 percent potential contribution Numbers don’t support spending Power Administra- sil fuel generation (which is reliably from “Big” Wind at a fraction of the billions on Molokai, Lanai projects tion, which has 12 firm) must always be kept running cost. That is without even consider- percent of installed offline to back up wind generation if ing distributed generation via rooftop BN reporter Sophie Cocke is U.S. wind capacity, re- the wind slows suddenly when power PV, which would cut Oahu’s power to be commended for attempt- cently announced its is needed. (This is why European demand substantially. Ping to understand — and con- system runs at 19 per- utilities with major wind investments As Jay Griffin noted in Ms. Cocke’s vey — what seems a complex issue: cent or lower, despite have found they do not lower fossil article, estimates are tricky. But to How much energy could Big Wind MIKE being located in one fuel use or carbon dioxide emis- ignore them and blithely spend what produce? (“How much energy could BOND of the windiest areas sions at all). This fossil fuel use (the is likely to exceed $4 billion, while Big Wind produce?” May 27 PBN Biz IN MY in the U.S. In the UK, equivalent of the kilowatts wasted) driving electricity rates up 30 percent Blog.) OPINION which is considered must also be subtracted from gross and depriving taxpayers of $2-3 billion Yet, her question remains unan- to have the best wind wind generation to arrive at a true that is urgently needed elsewhere, swered. Would the proposed $3-4 bil- availability in the number for net generation. This spin- seems both duplicitous and irrespon- lion “Big” Wind project really deliver world, its 1,000 turbines ran at 19-24 ning reserve factor varies between sible. And, given the perilous state much electricity to Oahu at all? Or percent installed capacity throughout seasons and locations but can exceed of our national finances, to hand $2-3 is this monstrous scheme to cover a all of 2009-2010. 20 percent. billion in tax writeoffs to corpora- good part of Molokai and Lanai with The state energy office estimates tions such as GE ($10 billion profits in gargantuan turbines with blades become even more ludicrous when we A SIMPLE EQUATION 2010 — no taxes paid) seems close to larger than the wings of a Boeing 747, realize that almost no wind data exist Net Generation (what is actually treasonous. and taller than the tallest building in for Molokai, so it is not known wheth- utilized) = Installed Capacity (what When the Legislature passed Act Hawaii, really just a tax and ratepay- er the wind would even run turbines you would get if each turbine ran 162 (SLH 2006) amending Section 269- er-gouging scam, as more and more there. Frank Leary, a Molokai resident perfectly 24/7/365) x Capacity Factor 27.2 of the Hawaii Revised Statutes, experts are now stating? who has run smaller turbines on his (percentage of electricity produced the intent was that alternative-energy The economics of industrial wind land for many years, has stated that under actual wind conditions) – Cur- generation would be used to lower development are straightforward. As for the last 20 years on Molokai, the tailment Factor (what is lost when the ratepayer costs, not raise them. The Texas billionaire T. Boone Pickens wind has been less than 10 miles per wind is blowing but the turbines are act requires the PUC to establish that said, the only thing green about it hour intermittently as much as half shut down because the power is not “the rate for purchase of electricity is the money it puts in my pocket — the time. needed) x Net Cable Transmission by a public utility shall not be more largely through major electricity rate A former supervisor for a Hawaii (after transmission loss is deducted) – than 100 per cent of the cost avoided increases (to us), taxpayer subsidies power company recently told me that Spinning Reserve. by the utility when the utility pur- (from us) and tax breaks for large cor- on an island such as Molokai or La- chases the electrical energy rather porations (from us). Those subsidies nai, non-firm transmission of electric Thus: 400 MW installed capacity x than producing the electrical energy.” mean we have less money for Medi- energy is dumb … the intermittent 20 percent capacity factor = 80 MW. It also requires the PUC to set “just care and education and the defense of generation from wind generators of 80 MW – 40 percent curtailment fac- and reasonable” rates to “enable util- our nation, and they us drive inexo- what would be 200 MW would honest- tor = 48 MW. ity customers to share in the benefits rably closer to the worst bankruptcy ly be about 12 MW on a time curve. 48 MW – 5 percent cable loss = 45.6 of fuel cost savings resulting from the America has ever faced. ■ Curtailment factor: Even 20 per- MW. use of non-fossil-fuel-generated elec- To understand how much (or how cent of installed capacity (80 MW) for 45.6 MW – 20 percent loss of backup tricity.” With “Big” Wind, however, little) electricity “Big” Wind might “Big” Wind may be optimistic, since kilowatts (spinning reserve) = 36.5 the costs will far exceed avoided cost, actually generate, let’s look at the all of that will not be usable all the MW. and instead of cost savings, another numbers: time. Wind typically and uncoopera- 30 percent will be added to everyone’s ■ Installed capacity: the potential tively blows more when power is not Generating 36.5 MW is 320,000 electric bill. maximum electricity produced if the needed (at night or non-peak hours) MWh/year or 320 million kWh/year, Is “Big” (Little) Wind really such a wind blows at a constant high level 24 and thus wind generation must often which is 4 percent of Oahu’s 2010 good idea for Hawaii? Or is it, as more hours a day, 365 days a year. For “Big” be curtailed, or “turned off” by the re- total demand, and barely 2 percent and more commentaries note, an im- Wind this is 400 megawatts (MW). ceiving utility. This curtailment factor of Oahu’s potential demand in 2030. pending financial disaster, flagrant ■ Capacity factor: the estimate of could reach 40 percent, meaning that Under no financial or engineering taxpayer theft, engineering night- the electricity produced under actual “Big” Wind’s actual utilized genera- analysis is 36.5 MW worth a construc- mare, environmental catastrophe, wind conditions. Since most indus- tion would be closer to 48 MW. tion cost of $3-4 billion, which is what and monumental insult to Hawaii’s trial wind factories have a capacity ■ Net cable transmission: The two industrial wind factories plus the heritage? While the governor, HECO factor of 19-24 percent (they operate proposed cable is projected to lose 5 undersea cable will cost Hawaii elec- et al continue to conceal the relevant at 19-24 percent of installed capacity), percent in transmission, which would tricity consumers and taxpayers. financial and technical information, the highly optimistic estimates from cut the gross generation from 48 MW The state Department of Business, the real costs to all Hawaii residents, the state energy office of 40 percent of to about 45 MW of actual delivered Economic Development and Tour- and particularly to the citizens of La- installed capacity for “Big” Wind are electricity. ism recently announced that state nai and Molokai — are quite clear. extremely unlikely. A more reason- ©■ Spinning American reserve: City Net Business generation Journalsagencies - Nothave cutfor their commercial electricity use use able maximum for “Big” Wind is prob- analysis must also deduct the kilo- 8.6 percent over the last three fiscal MIKE BOND is an adviser to more than 70 major utilities ably 20 percent, which reduces the watts lost in backup generation (spin- years, at little cost. With minimal ef- and energy companies and the former chairman and CEO of production from its installed capacity ning reserve). Because wind is so fort, all electricity consumers on Oa- CEnergy, an international energy investment company. He lives to 80 MW (400 MW x 20 percent). variable, rising and falling often in a hu could do the same, easily doubling on Molokai and can be reached at [email protected].

Letter to the Editor | This progress comes from only the agreements statewide. We also have How to submit a letter first two tiers of the FIT; a proposed contracts for two utility-scale solar Pacific Business News welcomes Solar energy makes progress third tier for larger projects (up to 5 farms on Oahu pending PUC approv- letters from readers. We reserve the Thanks for continued coverage MW on Oahu and to 2.7 MW on Maui al, with more coming. right to edit for space and/or clarity. of efforts to get more solar power and Hawaii Island) is being reviewed The year 2010 was a banner year All letters must be typewritten or on our electric grids, one important by the Public Utilities Commission. It for solar power in Hawaii. With state e-mailed and include writer’s name, part of Hawaii’s clean-energy future. will offer one more way for customers tax credits for solar photovoltaics re- address and phone number. Your May 27 story, “Feed-in tariff has to add solar power at their homes and tained by the Legislature, 2011 should Mail to PBN, 1833 Kalakaua Ave., 7th worked for only 3 projects,” focused on businesses. be another. Hawaii is recognized as a Floor, Honolulu, Hawaii 96815. Fax to just part of that story. As important, the FIT adds to but national leader among states in solar (808) 955-8031. Or send via the Pacific At the end of May, the total FIT does not substitute for ways our cus- watts per person and we are working Business News Web site at pacificbusi- capacity installed and in queue on tomers can sell renewable energy to to retain that title into the future. nessnews.com. Oahu, Hawaii Island and in Maui us. Especially successful is net energy All submissions become the proper- County was nearly 8 megawatts, very metering, which many customers still Peter Rosegg ty of Pacific Business News and may presentable progress for a program in find is the most advantageous way Spokesman, not be published or otherwise used in effect for less than nine months. to add solar, with nearly 5,500 NEM Hawaiian Electric Co. any medium.