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Weekly Cat Report December 9, 2016

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This Week’s Natural Disaster Events

Event & Region Fatalities Structures/Claims Economic Loss Specific Areas (USD) Earthquake - Asia 102+ 700+ Millions+ Indonesia Flooding - Asia 14+ Thousands Millions+ Thailand - Asia 14+ 12,750+ Millions+ Vietnam - Asia 10+ 21,050+ 3.5+ million Indonesia - South America 15+ 1,000+ Unknown Bolivia, Colombia, Venezuela - Europe 2 Thousands Millions+ Spain

Earthquake: A strong magnitude-6.5 earthquake struck the northern portion of Indonesia’s Sumatra Island in the early hours of Wednesday, December 7. The tremor struck approximately 19 kilometers (12 miles) southeast of Sigli, in Aceh Province, at 05:04 AM local time (22:04 UTC, December 6). Indonesia’s National Disaster Management Agency reported that at least 102 people were killed and hundreds more were injured. At least 700 homes and other buildings were damaged or destroyed. Details begin on page 3.

Flooding: Severe flooding was reported throughout portions of Southeast Asia, South America, and Europe during the first week of December. At least 55 people were killed globally and tens of thousands of homes were damaged or destroyed. Among the worst affected countries were Thailand, Vietnam, and Indonesia. Details begin on page 6.

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Strong M6.5 earthquake rattles Indonesia A strong United States Geological Survey-registered magnitude- 6.5 earthquake struck the northern portion of Indonesia’s Sumatra Island in the early hours of Wednesday, December 7. The tremor struck approximately 19 kilometers (12 miles) southeast of Sigli, in Aceh Province, at a shallow depth of 8.2 kilometers (5.1 miles). It was registered at 05:04 AM local time (22:04 UTC, December 6). Indonesia’s National Disaster Management Agency (Bakan Nasional Penanggulangan Source: Agence France-Presse Bencana (BNPB)) reported that shaking was felt for approximately 15 seconds throughout Pidie and Pidie Jaya regencies and as far away as Phangnga, Thailand, and Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia. At least 102 people were killed and hundreds more were injured.

Event Details At least 102 people were killed as a result of the earthquake, including at least 91 in Pidie Jaya regency, a further two in Bireuen regency, and one in Pidie regency. Indonesia’s BNPB reported that 724 people were injured including at least 135 who sustained severe injuries. The majority of those who were seriously injured were in Pidie Jaya (125). At least another 589 others sustained minor injuries: including 411 in Pidie Jaya and 78 in Bireuen. Dozens of others were still thought to be trapped beneath the rubble of collapsed buildings.

According to data from the BNPB, early damage survey results showed that more than 700 buildings sustained damage or were destroyed. This total included 534 homes: including 86 in Pidie Jaya, 40 in Pidie, and 35 in Bireuen. A further 105 shop-houses were affected in Pidie Jaya. Additionally, several public buildings including 63 mosques, Pidie Jaya (Source: BNPB) four schools, and one hospital, collapsed or were severely damaged. Images in local media, and online, showed significant damages in portions of Pidie Jaya, particularly in the district of Meureudu. Some specific buildings affected included the Dayah Mudi Mesra Samalanga Mosque, Ulle Glee Mosque, and one building which was part of the STAI Al-Aziziah Islamic University. Significant damage was also reported to several roads and numerous power poles toppled prompting power outages in the affected regencies.

Seismological Recap Indonesia is a tectonically active archipelago located near the meeting point of four major tectonic plates: the Eurasian, Australian, Philippine Sea, and Pacific Plates. Sumatra Island sits near the boundary of the Australian and Eurasian tectonic plates. The subduction of the Australian plate beneath the Eurasian plate has been the trigger for several major eruptions and earthquakes in Indonesia historically.

The USGS provided the following summary of seismotectonics of the Sumatra region:

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The plate boundary southwest of Sumatra is part of a long tectonic collision zone that extends over 8000 km from Papua in the east to the Himalayan front in the west. The Sumatra-Andaman portion of the collision zone forms a subduction zone megathrust plate boundary, the Sunda-Java trench, which accommodates convergence between the Indo- Australia and Sunda plates. This convergence is responsible for the intense seismicity and volcanism in Sumatra. The Sumatra Fault, a major transform structure that bisects Sumatra, accommodates the northwest-increasing lateral component of relative plate motion.

Relative plate motion between the Indo-Australia and Sunda plates is rapid, decreasing from roughly 63 mm/year near the southern tip of Sumatra (Australia relative to Sunda) to 44 mm/year north of Andaman Islands (India relative to Sunda) and rotating counterclockwise to the northwest, so that relative motion near Jakarta is nearly trench-normal but becomes nearly trench-parallel near Myanmar. As a result of the rotation in relative motion along

ShakeMap (Source: USGS) the strike of the arc and the interaction of multiple tectonic plates, several interrelated tectonic elements compose the Sumatra-Andaman plate boundary. Most strain accumulation and release occurs along the Sunda megathrust of the main subduction zone, where lithosphere of the subducting Indo- Australia plate is in contact with the overlying Sunda plate down to a depth of 60 km. Strain release associated with deformation within the subducting slab is evidenced by deeper earthquakes that extend to depths of less than 300 km on Sumatra and 150 km or less along the Andaman Islands. The increasingly oblique convergence between these two plates moving northwest along the arc is accommodated by crustal seismicity along a series of transform and normal faults. East of the Andaman Islands, back- arc spreading in the Andaman Sea produces a zone of distributed normal and strike-slip faulting. Similar to the Sumatran Fault, the Sagaing Fault near Myanmar also accommodates the strike- slip component of oblique plate motion. Plate-boundary related deformation is also not restricted to the subduction zone and overriding plate: the subducting Indo-Australian plate actually comprises two somewhat independent plates (India and Australia), with small amounts of motion relative to one another, that are joined along a broad, actively-deforming region producing seismicity up to several hundred kilometers west of the trench. This deformation is exemplified by the recent April 2012 earthquake sequence, which includes the April 11 M 8.6 and M 8.2 strike-slip events and their subsequent aftershocks.

Paleoseismic studies using coral reefs as a proxy for relative land level changes associated with earthquake displacement suggest that the Sunda arc has repeatedly ruptured during relatively large events in the past, with records extending as far back as the 10th century. In northern Simeulue Island, the southern terminus of the 2004 megathrust earthquake rupture area, a cluster of megathrust earthquakes occurred over a 56 year period between A.D. 1390 and 1455, resulting in uplift substantially greater than that caused by the 2004 event. Studies that look at large sheeted deposits of sand on land interpreted as the transport of debris from a tsunami wave also indicate that this region has experienced significant tsunamis in the past centuries, albeit infrequently.

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Prior to 2004, the most recent megathrust earthquakes along the Sumatran-Andaman plate boundary were in 1797 (M 8.7-8.9), 1833 (M 8.9-9.1) and 1861 (M8.5). Since 2004, much of the Sunda megathrust between the northern Andaman Islands and Enggano Island, a distance of more than 2,000 km, has ruptured in a series of large subduction zone earthquakes - most rupturing the plate boundary south of Banda Aceh. The great M 9.1 earthquake of December 26, 2004, which produced a devastating tsunami, ruptured much of the boundary between Myanmar and Simeulue Island offshore Banda Aceh. Immediately to the south of the great 2004 earthquake, the M 8.6 Nias Island earthquake of March 28, 2005 ruptured a 400-km section between Simeulue and the Batu Islands. Farther south in the Mentawai islands, two earthquakes on September 12, 2007 of M 8.5 and M 7.9 occurred in the southern portion of the estimated 1797 and 1833 ruptures zone, which extends from approximately Enggano Island to the northern portion of Siberut Island. Smaller earthquakes have also been locally important: a M7.6 rupture within the subducting plate caused considerable damage in Padang in 2009, and a M7.8 rupture on October 25, 2010 occurred on the shallow portion of the megathrust to the west of the Mentawai Islands, and caused a substantial tsunami on the west coast of those islands.

In addition to the current seismic hazards along this portion of the Sunda arc, this region is also recognized as having one of the highest volcanic hazards in the world. One of the most dramatic eruptions in human history was the Krakatau eruption on August 26-27, 1883, a volcano just to the southeast of the island of Sumatra, which resulted in over 35, 000 casualties.

Subduction and seismicity along the plate boundary adjacent to Java is fundamentally different from that of the Sumatran-Andaman section. Relative motion along the Java arc is trench-normal (approximately 65-70 mm/year) and does not exhibit the same strain partitioning and back-arc strike- slip faulting that are observed along the Sumatra margin. Neither has the Java subduction zone hosted similar large magnitude megathrust events to those of its neighbor, at least in documented history. Although this region is not as seismically active as the Sumatra region, the Java arc has hosted low to intermediate- magnitude extensional earthquakes and deep-focus (300-700 km) events and exhibits a similar if not higher volcanic hazard. This arc has also hosted two large, shallow tsunami earthquakes in the recent past which resulted in high tsunami run-ups along the southern Java coast.

Nearly 13.3 million residents were estimated to have felt levels of shaking ranging from “Weak” to “Severe” on the Modified Mercalli Intensity (MMI) scale. The populated areas to feel the strongest level of shaking - MMI level VII - were Sigli (population ~18,000) and Reuleuet (population ~40,000). The USGS additionally noted that the city of Banda Aceh (population ~251,000) was exposed to MMI level V shaking.

Intensity Exposed Population Intensity Exposed Population II-III (Weak) 8.44 million VII (Very Strong) 371,000 IV (Light) 3.21 million VIII (Severe) 179,000 V (Moderate) 787,000 IX (Violent) 0 VI (Strong) 236,000 X (Extreme) 0 Financial Loss It remains too early to quantify the level of economic damage at this time. Losses are anticipated, however, to be in the millions of dollars (USD). Given low insurance penetration in this part of Indonesia, insured losses are likely to be negligible.

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Deadly flooding recorded around the globe

Major flooding was noted across several countries in Asia this week after considerable rainfall occurred. Parts of Thailand, Vietnam and Indonesia all recorded widespread damage and fatalities. The rainfall pattern was reminiscent of what is typically expected during La Niña.

7-Day rainfall totals ending December 8 (Source: NASA) Thailand Torrential downpours impacted southern portions of Thailand from December 1 through 4 prompting widespread and damaging flooding in 12 provinces. The death toll rose to 14 as more than 582,000 people were affected by the floods.

The affected provinces included: Chumphon, Surat Thani, Krabi, Nakhon Si Thammarat, Trang, Phatthalung, Songhkla, Pattani, Yala, and Narathiwat. All provinces are in Thailand’s South Region where the rainy season lasts from September through December as the North East Monsoon brings moisture to the region from the Gulf of Thailand. Selected 24-hour rainfall totals from the World Meteorological Organization are given in the table below.

Location, Date 24-hour Rainfall Total (mm) Location, Date 24-hour Rainfall Total (mm) Surat Thani, Dec. 2 298.2 Songkhla, Dec. 3 178.1 Nakhon Si Thammarat, Dec. 2 250.2 Ko Samui, Dec. 3 175.0 Narathiwat, Dec. 1 201.7 Pattani, Dec. 1 141.5 Nakhon Si Thammarat, Dec. 3 186.7 Pattani, Dec. 2 133.3 Songkhla, Dec. 1 179.3 Songkhla, Dec. 2 123.7

Flood-related fatalities were reported in Nakhon Si Thammarat (three), Surat Thani (two), Songkhla (two), Phatthalung (two), and Pattani (two). Two people were officially listed as missing while two others in Surat Thani were injured. Throughout the 68 districts of the affected provinces more than 582,000 residents were left stranded or impacted by the floodwaters. In Nakhon Si Thammarat, as many as 1,245 villages in 18 districts were affected and 260 homes were isolated as the only bridge linking the village to the rest of the region collapsed. More than 250 schools in the province were closed.

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In Krabi, two villages were evacuated as a reservoir in Khao Phanom district breached its banks. In Songkhla, more than three dozen schools in three districts (Ramot, Krasae Sin, and Sathing Phra) were closed for two days (December 6-7) as Songkhla Lake overflowed its banks. Vast swathes of farmland, roads, and villages were inundated including nine villages in Sathing Phra where floodwaters reached up to 1.0 meters (3.3 feet) deep. As of this writing, there were no reports on the total number of Nakhon Si Thammarat (Source: Bangkok Post) homes affected by the floods. Damages were reported to 676 roads and as many as 33 bridges hampering the relief efforts in the region. The State Railway of Thailand was also impacted as services between Bangkok and Hat Yai, Songkhla, were suspended due to submerged tracks. Other local rail services were also affected. Vietnam The North East Monsoon, enhanced by the remnants of Tropical Storm Tokage, brought heavy downpours to central portions of Vietnam from November 30 through December 5. More than a dozen people were killed as flooding ensued in the country’s North and South Central Coast regions.

Location, Date 24-hour Rainfall Total (mm) The North East monsoon typically brings heavy rainfall to Quang Ngai, Nov. 30 181.6 central coastal regions of Vietnam from September through Hue, Dec. 3 160.3 January, peaking in October and November. Tropical Storm Quang Ngai, Dec. 5 144.0 Quang Ngai, Dec. 2 143.5 Tokage impacted portions of the Philippines last week before Hue, Dec. 1 124.0 dissipating over the South China Sea. The remnant tropical disturbance enhanced the North East monsoon flow over Vietnam from November 30 through December 5 triggering torrential downpours for central regions. Selected 24-hour rainfall totals from the period from the World Meteorological Organization are given in the table above. Quảng Ngãi recorded a total of almost 664 millimeters (26.1 inches) during the six-day period - almost three times the long-term average rainfall for the entire month of December (230 millimeters (9.0 inches)) for the city.

The worst affected provinces included Bình Định, Quảng Ngãi, and Quảng Nam. At least 14 people were killed and three others were injured. The majority of the fatalities were reported in Bình Định (six), followed by Quảng Ngãi (five), then Quảng Nam (three). The three injured parties were all in Bình Định. Throughout the three provinces, it was reported that 11,324 homes were inundated and 101 homes were destroyed. The worst of the damage was in Bình Định where 8,948 homes were damaged and 50 more were destroyed. Additionally, 1,314 homes in Thừa Thiên- Huế province were also damaged. Quảng Nam (Source: Tuoi Tre News) More than 12,730 hectares (31,460 acres) of arable land was submerged in Bình Định, Quảng Ngãi, and Quảng Nam: both rice and vegetable crops were damaged. Pastoral agriculture was also impacted as almost 19,000 heads of livestock and fowl were drowned. Again, Bình Định province bore the brunt of the agricultural losses as local media reported that 90 percent of agricultural land in Bình Định was inundated.

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In Quảng Nam it was reported that most reservoirs in the province were at 90-96 percent of capacity prompting several hydro-power plants to discharge water leading to worsening of flood conditions in some rural areas and in Hội An city. A landslide in Kon Tum province, triggered by the heavy rainfall, caused severe damage to Trường Sơn Đông highway. Local media reported that 25,000 tonnes of rock and mud slid from the hillside causing significant damage to the carriageway. Some 30 kilometers (19 miles) of roads were affected in total by flooding while 130 irrigation dams and 10 bridges were also damaged. Indonesia Heavy rain over western portions of Indonesia from November 30 through the first week of December has prompted flooding and landslides on Sumatra, Java, and Borneo Islands. At least 10 people were killed and more than 21,000 homes were damaged or destroyed.

On Sumatra, flooding in Merangin regency, Jambi province, claimed one life and inundated 1,479 homes in three districts. West Kalimantan province, on Borneo, was subjected to flooding that affected 19 villages in four districts. A total of 6,748 households were affected and as of this writing, damage surveys were still being undertaken to assess how many homes were damaged.

Nearly all provinces on Java were impacted by flooding and landslides this week with the exceptions of the Special Regions of Jakarta and Yogjakarta and West Java. In Banten, a landslide near Citorek village, Lebak district claimed four lives and left three others injured. In Central Java, landslides in Buluhrejo and Plosorejo villages each claimed one life and left two others injured and two more missing while a landslide near Sukomakmur village also claimed one life.

In the worst of the flood-related incidents in Indonesia, portions of Bojonegro and Tuban regencies in East Java were inundated as the Bengawan Solo River burst its banks. In Tuban, almost three dozen villages in the five districts of Widang, Parengan, Soko, Rengel, and Plumpang were inundated. At least one person was killed after being swept away by the overflowing river. A total of 5,672 homes were inundated, displacing 18,425 residents. Additionally, some 28 mosques and 28 schools were also damaged. More than 67 kilometers (42 miles) of roads were submerged along with 2,854 hectares (7,052 acres) of rice and vegetable fields. Damage to aquaculture was also noted as 25 hectares (62 acres) of ponds were affected. In Bojonegro, some 86 villages in nine districts were submerged. One person was killed as 7,145 homes were inundated. More than 30 mosques and 24 schools were also damaged while losses to agricultural interests were also reported as 4,383 hectares (10,831 acres) of fields were flooded and 686 heads of livestock drowned. The Bengawan Solo River also overflowed its banks further downstream in Gresik regency. Flooding was reported in Dukun and Bungah districts but there were no official reports on the number of people or homes affected. Economic losses in Rengel district, East Java province, alone were estimated to be in the 10s of billions (IDR). (NB. IDR10 billion = USD753,000). Losses in Bojonegro district, also in East Java province, were estimated at IDR35 billion (USD2.6 million).

South America At least eight people died in Bolivia’s Chuquisaca (four), Cochabamba (three), and La Paz (one) departments due to flooding prompted by torrential rainfall from November 26 through December 5. More than 140 homes were damaged in Cochabamba where more than 5,300 residents were evacuated as of Monday. Some 600 families in total were affected by the loss of their homes or damages to their crops.

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The city of Cali in western Colombia was impacted by flooding and landslides following a torrential downpour during the afternoon of December 1. The Cali River, which originates in the Cordillera Occidental mountain range and flows through the city, burst its banks in several places throughout the city. At least six people died and more than two dozen homes were destroyed as a landslide struck Cali’s Siloam neighborhood. Three people were rescued from the debris. Several road closures were also reported due to flooding throughout the city, including on main Avenida Circunvalar Street, while almost 27,000 customers endured power outages. Elsewhere in Colombia, the Cauca River breached its banks on December 7 in Guaranda department, Sucre, inundating vast swathes of agricultural land. Residents of Guaranda, Majagual, and Sucre were on alert at the time of this writing.

In Venezuela, one person was killed as five states were affected by heavy rainfall. From December 1-4, portions of Carabobo, Nueva Esparta, Monagas, Miranda, and Greater Caracas endured heavy rainfall that triggered localized flooding. In addition to the one fatality reported, a further two people were officially listed as missing in Carabobo. In Miranda, some 285 homes were affected including five that were totally destroyed. A further 47 homes in Nueva Esparta and 57 in Monagas were damaged.

Spain Torrential rain hit portions of southern Spain on Sunday, December 4, causing flash floods. The provinces of Cadiz and Malaga in Andalusia region were worst affected, as up to 220 millimeters (8.7 inches) of rain fell in 24 hours. Two fatalities were reported.

Several locations in Cadiz province were affected, particularly around the Bay of Gibraltar. One person died in La Línea de la Concepción, after being swept away by floodwaters while attempting to restore power to affected areas. Elsewhere, a wall collapsed in Los Barrios, crushing several cars, all of which were empty at the time. Portions of San Roque were also impacted. In the provincial capital, Cadiz, several streets, garages and homes were flooded, while traffic on the A-491 highway was disrupted.

Several rivers burst their banks in Estepona, Malaga province, inundating main thoroughfares and dozens of houses and businesses, killing one person. Flooding was also reported in Fuengirola, Alhaurin de la Torre, Manilva, and Mijas. In Malaga city, an industrial area in the southern part of the city, close to the banks of the Guadalhorce River, was badly affected. The city’s metro system was also temporarily closed for the first time in its history. Additionally, the A-7 highway was closed on Sunday while dozens of stranded residents had to be rescued from their flooded homes. Los Barrios (Source: Euro Weekly) Natural Catastrophes: In Brief Earthquake (Trinidad and Tobago) A USGS-registered moderate magnitude-5.9 earthquake struck the Caribbean island of Trinidad on Tuesday, December 6. The quake was registered at 05:42PM AST local time (21:42 UTC) approximately 22 kilometers (14 miles) southwest of Scarborough at a depth of 34.8 kilometers (21.6 miles). Shaking was felt throughout Trinidad and Tobago but there were no reports of any casualties or significant damages.

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Cyclonic Storm Nada (India and Sri Lanka) At least two people were killed in Sri Lanka as Cyclonic Storm Nada passed to the north of the country from December 1-4 and made landfall in India’s Tamil Nadu state. In Sri Lanka, the storm brought high winds and heavy rainfall to northern regions that claimed two lives in Jaffna. Throughout Northern Province the storm also caused damage to 53 homes and destroyed a further seven. Nada also brought stormy weather conditions to portions of Tamil Nadu and Kerala states in southern India but no major damages were reported there.

Earthquake (Peru) A USGS-registered magnitude-6.3 earthquake struck southern Peru on December 1 claiming one life and rendering 93 families homeless. The quake struck 43 kilometers (27 miles) northeast of Huarichancara at a shallow depth of 10.0 kilometers (6.2 miles). A further 804 homes were damaged by the quake along with four schools and four churches. The worst of the damage was sustained in Lampa province.

Earthquake (Solomon Islands) A major magnitude-7.8 earthquake struck the Solomon Islands in the early hours of December 9. The USGS-registered quake struck at 04:39AM SBT local time (17:39 UTC, December 8) approximately 69 kilometers (43 miles) west-southwest of Kirakira at a depth of 41.0 kilometers (25 miles). Tsunami warnings were immediately issued for a number of Pacific nations including Australia, Indonesia, New Zealand, and Hawaii. The largest wave recorded was 0.43 meters (1.4 feet) at Hienghene, New Caledonia. Approximately 3,000 people in the Solomon Islands were affected as the quake triggered several landslides. At least 40 homes were damaged in Makira- Ulawa province, with the most significant damages reported around the Maro’u Bay area. As of this writing, 16 large aftershocks with magnitudes ranging from 4.9-6.5 had been recorded. There were no immediate reports of any casualties or fatalities.

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Current Global Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies (°C)

Select Global Sea Surface Temperatures and Anomalies Location of Buoy Temp (°C) Departure from Last Year (°C) Eastern Pacific Ocean (555 miles SW of San Salvador, El Salvador) 27.8 -1.0 Niño3.4 region (2°N latitude, 155°W longitude) 27.1 -3.8 Western New Guinea (250 miles NE of Manokwari, New Guinea) 30.8 +1.2 Solomon Islands (130 miles NNW of Nukiki, Solomon Islands) 30.5 +0.6

Sources: NOAA, NESDIS, National Data Buoy Center

ENSO Update . La Niña conditions are currently present. Cooler than average sea surface temperatures persist in the equatorial eastern and central Pacific Ocean. . Weak La Niña conditions are slightly favored to persist (~55 percent chance) through the Northern Hemisphere winter season (Southern Hemisphere summer) 2016-17. . Beyond the Northern Hemisphere winter season 2016-17, ENSO-neutral conditions are favored. Source: Climate Prediction Center

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Current Tropical Systems

Location and Intensity Information

Name* Location Winds Center of Circulation Motion** CY Vardah 11.9°N, 91.3°E 50 mph 1,165 kilometers (725 miles) south of Chittagong, India NW at 5 mph

* TD = Tropical Depression, TS = Tropical Storm, HU = Hurricane, TY = Typhoon, STY = Super Typhoon, CY = Cyclone ** N = North, S = South, E = East, W = West, NW = Northwest, NE = Northeast, SE = Southeast, SW = Southwest

Sources: National Hurricane Center, Joint Typhoon Warning Center

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Global Tropics Outlook

Source: Climate Prediction Center

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Earthquake Activity: December 2 – December 8

Significant EQ Location and Magnitude (≥M6.0) Information

Date Location Magnitude Depth Epicenter 12/03/16 52.244°N 174.201°E 6.0 26.9 km 53 kilometers (33 miles) S of Shemya Island, Alaska 12/05/16 7.324°S 123.404°E 6.3 526.0 km 148 kilometers (92 miles) NNE of Palue, Indonesia 12/06/16 5.281°N 96.108°E 6.5 8.2 km 19 kilometers (12 miles) SE of Sigli, Indonesia 12/08/16 40.475°N, 126.153°W 6.5 12.1 km 160 kilometers (100 miles) W of Ferndale, California 12/08/16 10.665°S, 161.335°E 7.8 41.0 km 69 kilometers (43 miles) WSW of Kirakira, Solomon Islands

Source: United States Geological Survey

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U.S. Weather Threat Outlook

Potential Threats . A series of areas of low pressure are poised to cross the Northern Tier, Great Lakes and New England and spawn periods of heavy snowfall through the middle of next week. Elsewhere, a Pacific storm system will bring bouts of heavy precipitation to the Pacific Northwest during the middle of the week. . Bitter cold – the coldest of the season – will engulf much of the United States next week as a piece of the Polar Vortex rushes southward out of the Arctic. Temperatures will be substantially below normal. Parts of southern Alaska will also see below normal temperatures. . Severe drought conditions persist for parts of the West, Southeast, Plains, and the Northeast. Source: Climate Prediction Center

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Current U.S. River Flood Stage Status

Top 5 Rivers Currently Nearing or Exceeding Flood Stage

Location Flood Stage Current Stage % of Full Capacity Pembina River at Neche, North Dakota 18.00 28.34 157% Gypsum Creek near Gypsum, Kansas 15.00 20.00 133% Guadalupe River near Bloomington, Texas 20.00 23.92 120% San Antonio River at Goliad, Texas 25.00 28.93 116% Castle Creek near Hill City, South Dakota 6.00 6.81 114%

Source: United States Geological Survey

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Source Information Strong M6.5 earthquake rattles Indonesia: Strong Earthquake Destroys Buildings in Aceh, The Jakarta Post Earthquake Rocks Indonesia's Aceh Province; At Least 25 Dead, The Associated Press Aceh Earthquake: Children Among Dead and Dozens More Trapped on Sumatra, The Guardian United States Geological Survey Indonesia’s National Disaster Management Agency Deadly flooding recorded around the globe: Storm Floods Centre of Cadiz, Radio Cadiz Two Killed in Andalusia by Heavy Rain, El Mundo Six Dead in Landslide by Heavy Downpour in Cali, El País Several articles published by Bangkok Post Several articles published by Việt Nam News Indonesia’s National Disaster Management Agency (BNPD) World Meteorological Organization European Commission for Humanitarian Aid and Civil Protection FloodList Natural Catastrophes: In Brief: Mag-5.8 Quake Rattles Trinidad, Nearby Islands; No Damage, The Associated Press Be Proactive to Check Water Stagnation, Residents Told, The Hindu Landslides and Collapsed Buildings in Solomons, Radio New Zealand United States Geological Survey Sri Lanka’s Disaster Management Centre Redhum

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Contact Information

Steve Bowen Director (Meteorologist) Aon Benfield Analytics Impact Forecasting +1.312.381.5883 [email protected]

Claire Darbinyan Associate Director (Meteorologist) Aon Benfield Analytics Impact Forecasting +65.6645.0110 [email protected]

Michal Lörinc Catastrophe Analyst Aon Benfield Analytics Impact Forecasting +420.234.618.358 [email protected]

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About Aon Benfield

Aon Benfield, a division of Aon plc (NYSE: AON), is the world’s leading reinsurance intermediary and full- service capital advisor. We empower our clients to better understand, manage and transfer risk through innovative solutions and personalized access to all forms of global reinsurance capital across treaty, facultative and capital markets. As a trusted advocate, we deliver local reach to the world’s markets, an unparalleled investment in innovative analytics, including catastrophe management, actuarial and rating agency advisory. Through our professionals’ expertise and experience, we advise clients in making optimal capital choices that will empower results and improve operational effectiveness for their business. With more than 80 offices in 50 countries, our worldwide client base has access to the broadest portfolio of integrated capital solutions and services. To learn how Aon Benfield helps empower results, please visit aonbenfield.com.

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