Detroit: Far from Singing the Blues Multifamily Report Spring 2017
Rent Growth Tops Average
New Supply Hits Core Locales
Soaring Home Prices Drive Affordable Housing DETROIT MULTIFAMILY
Market Analysis Motown’s Expansion Hits High Notes Spring 2017 Despite numerous headwinds, Detroit is gamely bouncing back, thanks Contacts to concerted efforts by public and private sources to bring commerce and Paul Fiorilla households back to the city. Small businesses are receiving financial support from Associate Director of Research several public-private funds, including the $100 million New Economy Initiative. [email protected] (800) 866-1124 x5764 The automotive industry has regained its footing. Flex-N-Gate broke ground on a $100 million manufacturing facility that is expected to create 700 jobs, while Troy- Jack Kern based Delphi Automotive joined BMW, Intel and Mobileye in the development Director of Research and Publications of advanced autonomous driving systems. Detroit is also strengthening its tech [email protected] industry, with business accelerators for graduates and financial support for (800) 866-1124 x2444 technology startups, through the $4.2 million First Capital Fund.
Author Demand drivers are mixed. Young professionals are attracted to Detroit’s job Alexandra Pacurar opportunities in high-earning sectors, and the transformation of core areas into Senior Writer modern live-work environments continues to drive growth. Even so, population levels in the city remain relatively flat. After years of little new supply, development is beginning to pick up: More than 4,000 units are under construction. Rents increased 4.2% year-over-year as of April, exceeding twice the national growth rate. We expect strong demand to continue, and with minimal new deliveries, rents should increase by 4.1% in 2017.
Recent Detroit Transactions
Riverfront Towers Chimney Hill
City: Detroit City: West Bloomfield, Mich. Buyer: Image Capital Buyer: The Solomon Organization Purchase Price: $80 MM Purchase Price: $52 MM Price per Unit: $143,502 Price per Unit: $158,841
The Heights Bloomfield Square
To Subscribe Hollie Zepke City: Madison Heights, Mich. City: Auburn Hills, Mich. Audience Development Specialist Buyer: Monarch Investment Buyer: Yechiel Lopiansky [email protected] Purchase Price: $28 MM Purchase Price: $17 MM (800) 866-1124 x5389 Price per Unit: $123,733 Price per Unit: $66,406
On the cover: Photo by tomprout/iStockphoto.com 2 Transactions: Price Per Unit (Detroit)
$160,000 $140,000 $120,000 Transactions: Price Per Unit (Detroit) $100,000 $160,000$80,000 $140,000$60,000 $120,000$40,000 $100,000$20,000 $80,000$0 $60,000 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 $40,000 Detroit National $20,000 $0 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 9 0 1 2 3 5 6 7 1 1 00 01 0 01 01 01 01 2 2 20 2 2 2014 2 2 2 Detroit National
Employment Growth: YoY 6mo-avg (Detroit) 9 0 1 2 3 5 6 7 1 1 00 01 20 0 01 01 01 01 3.5%2 2 2 2 2014 2 2 2
3.0% Employment Growth: YoY 6mo-avg (Detroit)
3.5%2.5%
3.0%2.0%
2.5%1.5%
2.0%1.0%
1.5%0.5%
1.0%0.0%
0.5%
0.0%
Detroit National
Supply: Percentage of Stock (Detroit) Detroit National 3.0%
Supply: Percentage of Stock (Detroit) 2.5% 3.0% 2.0% 2.5% 1.5% 2.0% 1.0% 1.5% 0.5% 1.0% 0.0% 0.5% 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
National Detroit 0.0% 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Supply: Development Pipeline as of Apr 2017 (Detroit) National Detroit
Supply: Development Pipeline as of Apr 2017 (Detroit)
3,547 Units 3,984 Units
3,547 Units 3,984 Units
4,562 Units Rent Trends 4,562 Units
Rents in Detroit grew by 4.2%Planned year-over-yearProspective as ofUnder April Construction 2017, more than double the national growth rate of 2.0%. The Detroit rental market is still modestly priced at an average of $913 compared to the nation’s $1,314.
Transactions: Total Volume (Detroit) With a limited new supply ofPlanned apartmentProspective units, rentUnder increases Construction have been greater in Detroit’s Renter-by-Necessity segment,$600 which saw an increase of 4.3% year-over-year as of April 2017, to $878. As the metro continues60 to add jobsTransactions: in the Total professional Volume (Detroit) services, finance and technology sectors, demand for luxury units is expected to remain elevated.$600 With most new supply concentrated in the high-end segment, rent growth for Lifestyle units60 was a modest$400 2.0%, rising to $1,500. 40
Downtown Detroit, Bloomfield Hills/Birmingham and Dearborn are the most expensive submarkets, with rents ranging$400 from $1,236 to $1,300. Detroit–South saw the highest rent bump, at 18% year-over-year, followed40 by $200 20 Troy (10%) and Bloomfield Hills/Birmingham (10%).
Strong$200 demand and limited new supply should keep upward pressure on rents, producing our forecast20 of 4.1% rent growth$0 in 2017. 0 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Volume in Millions Number of Properties $0 0 Detroit vs. National2009 Rent 2010 Growth 2011 (Sequential 2012 3-Month, 2013 2014 Year-Over-Year) 2015 2016 2017 Rent: YoY vs National (Detroit) Volume in Millions Number of Properties 6.0%
Rent: YoY vs National (Detroit)
6.0% 4.0%
4.0% 2.0%
2.0% 0.0%
0.0%
Detroit National Source: YardiMatrix Rent: Lifestyle vs RBN (Detroit) Detroit National 6.0% Detroit Rent Growth by Asset Class (Sequential 3-Month, Year-Over-Year) Rent: Lifestyle vs RBN (Detroit)
6.0% 4.0%
4.0% 2.0%
2.0% 0.0%
0.0%
Lifestyle Renter-by-Necessity
Lifestyle Renter-by-Necessity
Source: YardiMatrix
Detroit Multifamily | Spring 2017 3 Economic Snapshot
Detroit added 38,000 jobs during the 12 months ending in February 2017, a 1.9% change year-over-year and in line with the 2.0% national average. Gains were led by the professional and business services sector, which added 9,700 jobs.
The wave of redevelopment in both the private and public sectors led to notable job expansion in the construction sector, which added 6,400 jobs, representing an increase of 10.7% year-over-year.
Education and health services (4,300) is expectedTransactions: Price toPer Unitcontinue (Detroit) contributing to growth. The Detroit Medical Center, Henry Ford Health System and St.$160,000 John Providence will provide job training and placement $140,000 opportunities in the health sector for city$120,000 residents in coming months. Financial services (3,900) is also growing. $100,000 $80,000 Demand for high-quality office space in prime$60,000 downtown areas is spurring new investment. The redevelopment of the former Hudson’s site on Woodward$40,000 Avenue is expected to add 280,000 square feet of Class A office space. $20,000 Also, Dan Gilbert plans to expand the 1 million-square-foot$0 One Campus Martius (Compuware Building) by 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 250,000 square feet. Microsoft also announced it will relocate its Southfield technology center to One Campus Detroit National Martius in early 2018 and lease 42,000 square feet of space.
9 0 1 2 3 5 6 7 1 1 00 01 0 01 01 01 01 2 2 20 2 2 2014 2 2 2 Detroit vs. National Employment Growth (Year-Over-Year) Employment Growth: YoY 6mo-avg (Detroit)
3.5%
3.0%
2.5%
2.0%
1.5%
1.0%
0.5%
0.0%
Detroit National
Sources: YardiMatrix, Bureau of Labor Statistics (not seasonally adjusted) Supply: Percentage of Stock (Detroit)
3.0% Detroit Employment Growth by Sector (Year-Over-Year) 2.5% Current Employment Year Change Code2.0% Employment Sector (000) % Share Employment % 60 Professional and Business Services 394 20.0% 9,700 2.5% 1.5% 15 Mining, Logging and Construction 66 3.3% 6,400 10.7% 90 1.0%Government 191 9.7% 4,500 2.4%
65 0.5%Education and Health Services 313 15.9% 4,300 1.4% 30 Manufacturing 244 12.4% 4,200 1.8% 0.0% 70 Leisure and2009 Hospitality 2010 2011 2012 190 2013 20149.6% 2015 2016 4,100 2017 2.2%
55 Financial Activities National 113 Detroit 5.7% 3,900 3.6% 40 Trade, Transportation and Utilities 358 18.2% 500 0.1% Supply:50 DevelopmentInformation Pipeline as of Apr 2017 (Detroit) 28 1.4% 400 1.5% 80 Other Services 75 3.8% (200) -0.3%
Sources: YardiMatrix, Bureau of Labor Statistics
3,547 Units 3,984 Units Detroit Multifamily | Spring 2017 4
4,562 Units
Planned Prospective Under Construction
Transactions: Total Volume (Detroit)
$600 60
$400 40
$200 20
$0 0 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Volume in Millions Number of Properties
Rent: YoY vs National (Detroit)
6.0%
4.0%
2.0%
0.0%
Detroit National
Rent: Lifestyle vs RBN (Detroit)
6.0%
4.0%
2.0%
0.0%
Lifestyle Renter-by-Necessity Demographics Affordability
Housing costs are rising in Detroit, where the median home price reached $143,374 in 2016, a record for the cycle and up 10% compared to 2015. Average rent in the metro was $913 as of April, up 4.2% in the past year.
Affordability has been flat for the past two years, with rents comprising 19% of income while mortgages comprise a more modest 11%. With home prices growing, municipalities are making efforts to increase their number of affordable units. The city of Detroit plans to redevelop Lee Plaza, an abandoned residential high-rise, and the nearby Woodland Apartments into nearly 400 low-income housing units. Also, the city is considering an ordinance requiring developers to make 20% of their units affordable for low-income renters.
Detroit Rent vs. Own Affordability as a Percentage of Income 25% 25% 20% 20% 15% 15% 10% 10% 5% 5% 0% 0% 2015 2016 2015 2016 Rent/Income Mort/Income Rent/Income Mort/Income
Sources: YardiMatrix, Moody’s Analytics
Detroit Median Home Price
$150,000 $150,000 $125,000 $125,000 $100,000 $100,000 $75,000 $75,000 $50,000 $50,000 $25,000 $25,000 $0 $0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Source: Moody’s Analytics
Population Detroit vs. National Population
Detroit’s population rose by 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 only 10,000 residents from 2011 to 2016, representing a National 313,998,379 316,204,908 318,563,456 320,896,618 323,127,513 much slower expansion than the national average. Detroit Metro 4,293,573 4,295,413 4,299,512 4,297,538 4,297,617
The growth rate was flat in 2016, compared to the Sources: U.S. Census, Moody’s Analytics nationwide value of 0.7%.
Detroit Multifamily | Spring 2017 5 Transactions: Price Per Unit (Detroit) Transactions: Price Per Unit (Detroit) $160,000 $140,000 $160,000 $120,000 $140,000 $120,000 $100,000 $100,000 $80,000 $80,000 $60,000 $60,000 $40,000 $40,000 $20,000 $20,000 $0 $0 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 20142009 2015 2010 2016 2011 2017 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Supply Detroit National Detroit National
9 0 1 2 3 5 6 7 9 0 11 2 As3 Detroit’s5 6economy1 7 1 rebounds, the development pipeline is also improving. Yardi Matrix expects nearly 1 00 01 0 01 01 01 01 00 01 0 01 2 01 2 01 20 01 2 2 2014 2 2 2 2 2 20 2 2,0002 2014 units2 2 to 2come online in 2017, an increase in stock of 0.9%. Although that is meager by national
standards, it represents a cycleEmployment high Growth: and YoY 6mo-avgtripleEmployment (Detroit) the Growth: 600 YoY units 6mo-avg that(Detroit) were delivered in 2016.
3.5% 3.5% More than 12,000 units are in various stages of development, with 4,000 under construction. New supply 3.0% 3.0% is concentrated in core areas: More than 1,300 units are underway downtown. Midtown is also seeing 2.5% 2.5% large projects, such as the transformation of the Wigle Recreation Center into a mixed-use asset with 335 residential2.0% units. 2.0% 1.5% 1.5% Infill redevelopment is happening throughout the city. The $23 million Packard Plant makeover broke 1.0% 1.0% ground in May, while the city of Detroit is making efforts to bring new supply into smaller neighborhoods. 0.5% 0.5% Montclair0.0% at Partridge Creek in Clinton Township is the largest multifamily development underway in the 0.0% metro, with 613 units expected for delivery by the end of 2018.
Detroit National Detroit vs. National CompletionsDetroit as Nationala Percentage of Total Stock (as of April 2017) Supply: Percentage of Stock (Detroit)
Supply: Percentage of Stock (Detroit) 3.0%
3.0% 2.5%
2.5% 2.0%
2.0% 1.5%
1.5% 1.0%
1.0% 0.5%
0.5% 0.0% 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
0.0% National Detroit 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Source: YardiMatrix Supply: Development Pipeline as of Apr 2017 (Detroit) National Detroit
Development Pipeline (as of April 2017) Detroit Completions (as of April 2017) Supply: Development Pipeline as of Apr 2017 (Detroit) Transactions: Price Per Unit (Detroit)
$160,000 $140,000 3,547 Units 3,984 Units $120,000 $100,000
3,547 Units $80,000 3,984 Units $60,000 4,562 Units $40,000 $20,000 $0 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 4,562 Units
Planned Prospective Under Construction Detroit National
Transactions: Total Volume (Detroit) 9 0 1 2 3 5 6 7 1 1 00 01 0 01 01 01 01 $600 Planned Prospective Under Construction 2 2 20 2 2 2014 2 2 260
Source: YardiMatrix Source: YardiMatrix Transactions: Total Volume (Detroit) Employment Growth: YoY 6mo-avg (Detroit) $600 $400 60 40 3.5% Detroit Multifamily | Spring 2017 6 3.0% $200 20 $400 40 2.5%
$0 2.0% 0 $200 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 201620 2017 1.5% Volume in Millions Number of Properties 1.0%
$0 Rent: YoY vs National (Detroit) 0 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 20150.5% 2016 2017 6.0% Volume in Millions Number of Properties 0.0%
4.0% Rent: YoY vs National (Detroit)
6.0% 2.0% Detroit National 4.0% 0.0%
Supply: Percentage of Stock (Detroit) 2.0% 3.0% Detroit National
0.0% Rent: Lifestyle vs RBN (Detroit) 2.5%
6.0% 2.0%
4.0% Detroit National 1.5% Rent: Lifestyle vs RBN (Detroit)
6.0% 2.0% 1.0%
4.0% 0.0% 0.5%
0.0% 2.0% Lifestyle Renter-by-Necessity 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
National Detroit 0.0%
Supply: Development Pipeline as of Apr 2017 (Detroit)
Lifestyle Renter-by-Necessity
3,547 Units 3,984 Units
4,562 Units
Planned Prospective Under Construction
Transactions: Total Volume (Detroit)
$600 60
$400 40
$200 20
$0 0 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Volume in Millions Number of Properties
Rent: YoY vs National (Detroit)
6.0%
4.0%
2.0%
0.0%
Detroit National
Rent: Lifestyle vs RBN (Detroit)
6.0%
4.0%
2.0%
0.0%
Lifestyle Renter-by-Necessity Transactions: Price Per Unit (Detroit)
$160,000 $140,000 $120,000 $100,000 $80,000 $60,000 $40,000 $20,000 $0 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Detroit National
9 0 1 2 3 5 6 7 1 1 00 01 0 01 01 01 01 2 2 20 2 2 2014 2 2 2
Employment Growth: YoY 6mo-avg (Detroit)
3.5%
3.0%
2.5%
2.0%
1.5%
1.0%
0.5%
0.0%
Detroit National
Supply: Percentage of Stock (Detroit)
3.0%
2.5%
2.0%
1.5%
1.0%
0.5%
0.0% 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
National Detroit
TransactionsSupply: Development Pipeline as of Apr 2017 (Detroit)
Deal flow is slowing as rising prices and macroeconomic shifts cool demand for properties. Approximately $72 million in multifamily assets changed hands in 2017 through April, on par with 2016’s $283 million.
3,547 Units Per-unit prices have risen in 2017 to3,984 $128,297, Units due to the volume of transactions shifting toward more expensive Lifestyle properties. Over the last 12 months, the submarket with the most volume was Downtown, thanks to the $80 million sale of two high-rise apartment buildings at Riverfront Towers, totaling 557 units. The Farmington Hills/West Bloomfield submarket followed with an investment volume of $61 million in the past year. The largest transaction year-to-date is The Solomon Organization’s acquisition of Chimney Hill in West Bloomfield from Marquette Cos. for $52 million,4,562 Units which set a record price per unit of $159,000.
Planned Prospective Under Construction Detroit Sales Volume and Number of Properties Sold (as of April 2017) Transactions: Total Volume (Detroit)
$600 60
$400 40
$200 20
$0 0 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Volume in Millions Number of Properties
Source: YardiMatrix Rent: YoY vs National (Detroit)
6.0% Top Submarkets for Transaction Volume1 Detroit vs. National Sales Price per Unit Transactions: Price Per Unit (Detroit)
4.0% Submarket Volume ($MM) $160,000 Detroit–Downtown 80 $140,000 Farmington Hills/West Bloomfield 61 $120,000 2.0% $100,000 Madison Heights 28 $80,000 South Lyon/Milford 23 $60,000 0.0% Auburn Hills 17 $40,000 $20,000 Westland 16 $0 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Southfield 14 Detroit National Dearborn Heights/Inkster 12 Detroit National Rent: Lifestyle vs RBN (Detroit) Source: YardiMatrix Source: YardiMatrix 1 6.0% 9From 0May 20161 to 2April 20173 5 6 7 1 1 00 01 0 01 01 01 01 2 2 20 2 2 2014 2 2 2
4.0% Employment Growth: YoY 6mo-avg (Detroit)
3.5% 2.0%
3.0% Detroit Multifamily | Spring 2017 7 0.0% 2.5%
2.0% Lifestyle Renter-by-Necessity 1.5%
1.0%
0.5%
0.0%
Detroit National
Supply: Percentage of Stock (Detroit)
3.0%
2.5%
2.0%
1.5%
1.0%
0.5%
0.0% 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
National Detroit
Supply: Development Pipeline as of Apr 2017 (Detroit)
3,547 Units 3,984 Units
4,562 Units
Planned Prospective Under Construction
Transactions: Total Volume (Detroit)
$600 60
$400 40
$200 20
$0 0 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Volume in Millions Number of Properties
Rent: YoY vs National (Detroit)
6.0%
4.0%
2.0%
0.0%
Detroit National
Rent: Lifestyle vs RBN (Detroit)
6.0%
4.0%
2.0%
0.0%
Lifestyle Renter-by-Necessity Read All About It!
Friedman Sells 58-Unit Detroit Community
Detroit Northern Suburb Retail Asset Changes Hands
Davenport University Investing $6M in New Dorm
Two Landmark Buildings In Downtown Detroit Top Off
Get the latest Detroit real estate news at
Photo by peeterv/iStockphoto.com Detroit Submarkets
Area # Submarket Area # Submarket Area # Submarket 1 Detroit–Downtown 16 Dearborn Heights/Inkster 31 Southfield 2 Detroit–Midtown 17 Westland 32 Bloomfield Hills/Birmingham 3 Detroit–East 18 Belleville 33 Farmington Hills/West Bloomfield 4 Detroit–Northeast 19 Canton/Plymouth 34 Novi 5 Detroit–New Center 20 Livonia/Redford 35 Wixom/Walled Lake 6 Highland Park 21 St. Claire Shores/Grosse Pointe 36 South Lyon/Milford 7 Detroit–North 22 Roseville 37 Waterford 8 Detroit–West 23 Harrison Township 38 Pontiac 9 Detroit–South 24 Clinton Township–East 39 Auburn Hills 10 Lincoln Park/Melvindale 25 Clinton Township–West 40 Rochester Hills 11 Dearborn 26 Warren 41 Shelby Township 12 Southgate/Riverview 27 Sterling Heights 42 Chesterfield/New Baltimore 13 Woodhaven/Brownstown 28 Madison Heights 43 Washington/Richmond 14 Taylor 29 Royal Oak/Oak Park 44 Clarkston/Orion 15 Wayne/Romulus 30 Troy 45 Holly/White Lake
Detroit Multifamily | Spring 2017 9 Definitions
Lifestyle households (renters by choice) have wealth sufficient to own but have chosen to rent. Discretionary households, most typically a retired couple or single professional, have chosen the flexibility associated with renting over the obligations of ownership.
Renter-by-Necessity households span a range. In descending order, household types can be:
A young-professional, double-income-no-kids household with substantial income but without wealth needed to acquire a home or condominium;
Students, who also may span a range of income capability, extending from affluent to barely getting by;
Lower-middle-income (“gray-collar”) households, composed of office workers, policemen, firemen, technical workers, teachers, etc.;
Blue-collar households, which may barely meet rent demands each month and likely pay a disproportionate share of their income toward rent;
Subsidized households, which pay a percentage of household income in rent, with the balance of rent paid through a governmental agency subsidy. Subsidized households, while typically low income, may extend to middle-income households in some high-cost markets, such as New York City;
Military households, subject to frequency of relocation.
These differences can weigh heavily in determining a property’s ability to attract specific renter market segments. The five-star resort serves a very different market than the down-and-outer motel. Apartments are distinguished similarly, but distinctions are often not clearly definitive without investigation. TheYardi® Matrix Context rating eliminates that requirement, designating property market positions as:
Market Position Improvements Ratings Discretionary A+ / A High Mid-Range A- / B+ Low Mid-Range B / B- Workforce C+ / C / C- / D
The value in application of the Yardi® Matrix Context rating is that standardized data provides consistency; information is more meaningful because there is less uncertainty. The user can move faster and more efficiently, with more accurate end results.
The Yardi® Matrix Context rating is not intended as a final word concerning a property’s status—either improvements or location. Rather, the result provides reasonable consistency for comparing one property with another through reference to a consistently applied standard.
To learn more about Yardi® Matrix and subscribing, please visit www.yardimatrix.com or call Ron Brock, Jr., at 480-663-1149 x2404.
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Detroit Multifamily | Spring 2017 12