eVENT Hurricane Tracking Advisory

Hurricane Irma Information from NHC Advisory 33, 5:00 AM AST Thu September 7, 2017 On the forecast track, the center should pass north of the coast of Hispaniola later today, be near the Turks and Caicos and southeastern Bahamas by this evening, and then be near the Central Bahamas by Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 180 mph (285 km/h) with higher gusts. Irma is a category 5 hurricane on the Saffir- Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are likely during the next day or two, but Irma is forecast to remain a powerful category 4 or 5 hurricane during the next couple of days.

Intensity Measures Position & Heading U.S. Landfall (NHC) Max Sustained Wind 180 mph Position Relative to 95 miles N of Punta Cana DR Speed: (Category 5) Land: 201 miles ESE of Grand Turk Island Sunday Sept 10 on Est. Time & Region: Florida Min Central Pressure: 921 mb Coordinates: 20.0 N, 68.3 W

Trop. Storm Force Est. Max Sustained 111+ mph 185 miles Bearing/Speed: WNW or 290 degrees at 17 mph Winds Extent: Wind Speed: (Category 3+)

Forecast Summary ■ The NHC forecast map (below left) and the wind-field map (below right), which is based on the NHC’s forecast track, both show Irma making landfall on Florida. To illustrate the uncertainty in Irma’s forecast track, forecast tracks for all current models are shown on the wind-field map (below right) in pale gray. ■ The combination of a life-threatening and large breaking waves will raise water levels ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS by the following amounts: 15-20 ft on Turks and Caicos Islands and also the Southeastern and central Bahamas, 3-5 ft on the Northern coast of the Dominican Republic, 1- 3 ft on the Northern coast of Haiti and the Gulf of Gonave, 5-10 ft on the Northern coast of in the warning area. ■ Hurricane conditions are expected to begin within the hurricane warning area in the Dominican Republic and Haiti today, with tropical storm conditions beginning in the next few hours. Hurricane conditions are expected to begin in the warning area in the southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands later today with tropical storm conditions expected within the next several hours. These conditions will spread into the Central Bahamas by Thursday night or early Friday. Hurricane and tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area in Cuba by Friday. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin within the warning area in Cuba Thursday night. Hurricane conditions are expected in the northwestern Bahamas Friday night and Saturday. ■ Irma is expected to produce the following rain accumulations through Saturday: An additional 2-4 inches on Northeast and the British and U.S. Virgin Islands, 8-12 inches on the Southeast Bahamas, Central Bahamas, and the Turks and Caicos,4-10 inches on the Northern Dominican Republic and northern Haiti and also Eastern and Central Cuba, 1-4 inches on Southern Haiti. In all areas this rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. Forecast Track for Forecast Wind-field for Hurricane Irma

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Coastal Watches and Warnings A Hurricane Warning - meaning that hurricane conditions are expected within the watch area – is in effect for Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to the northern border with Haiti, Haiti from the northern border with the Dominican Republic to Le Mole St. Nicholas, Southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands, Central Bahamas, Northwestern Bahamas. A Hurricane Watch – meaning that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area - is in effect for Cuba from Matanzas province eastward to Guantanamo province. A Tropical Storm Warning - meaning that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area – is in effect for Dominican Republic from south of Cabo Engano westward to the southern border with Haiti, Haiti from south of Le Mole St. Nicholas to Port-Au-Prince, Cuba provinces of Guantanamo, Holguin, and Las Tunas.

Summary of Activity to Date Benchmarking the 2017 Atlantic Season to Date 2017 Activity versus Average Activity for the years 1950 – 2011 Tropical Total Cat 3-5 12 TS Katia Storms Hurricanes Hurricanes Tropical Storm avg '50‐'11 Tropical Storm 2017 Hurricane avg '50‐'11 Hurricane 2017 TS Jose 2017 year to date (1/1/16 – 09/07/17) 11 6 2 Major Hurricane avg '50‐'11 Major Hurricane 2017 TS Irma 8 TS Harvey (1/1/16 – 09/07/17) 8 4 1 2016 year to date TS Gert HU Katia 1995-2011 season average 14.7 7.9 3.8 TS Franklin TS Emily Hu Jose 1950-2011 season average 10.7 6.2 2.7 4 TS Don HU Irma TS Cindy HU Harvey 2017 CSU season forecasts 13 6 2 TS Bret HU Gert Major HU Irma (Colorado State University at June 1,‘17) HU Franklin Major HU Harvey 2017 NOAA season forecasts 11-17 5-9 2-4 0 May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov (May25, 2017) Tropical Storm Activity to Date 2017 Tropical Storm Activity versus Average Activity Irma is the ninth named storm and Katia is the eleventh named storm of the 2017 The graph above shows 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season activity and average Atlantic Hurricane Season. Last year saw eight named storms four hurricanes occurrence rates since 1950 by date, category and order. It shows, for example, that and one major hurricane by September 7. Irma became the season’s ninth named storm on August 30. It also shows the average season has 10.7 tropical storms, 6.2 hurricanes and 2.7 major hurricanes (categories 3-5).

New Potential and Average Remaining Risk Five Day Tropical Weather Outlook Most Likely Arrival Time of Tropical-Storm-Force Winds For the North Atlantic, Caribbean Sea, and the Gulf of Mexico: The National The graphic below shows the most likely arrival time of tropical storm for winds - the Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Irma, located just northwest of time before or after which the onset of tropical-storm-force winds is equally likely. It also Puerto Rico, on Hurricane Jose, located over the central Atlantic Ocean, and shows probabilities of sustained (1-minute average) surface wind speeds equal to or , located over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. exceeding 34 kt (39 mph) for the next five days. This graphic is based on the official National Hurricane Center (NHC) track, intensity, and wind radii forecasts, and on NHC Additional tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days. forecast error statistics for those forecast variables during recent years.

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