DEC 2020: Air Transport Monthly Monitor World Results and Analyses for OCT 2020

DEC 2020: Air Transport Monthly Monitor World Results and Analyses for OCT 2020. Total scheduled services (domestic and international).

Air Transport Bureau http://www.icao.int/sustainability/Pages/AirLF 2014-2015LF 2013-2014 -Traffic-Monitor.aspx E-mail: [email protected]

GLOBAL KEY FIGURES OCT 2020JUN OUTLOOK* - NOV 2020 ( (versus OCT 2019) (versus NOV 2019) RPK -70.6% ASK -59.9% FTK -6.2% LF: 60.2% +0.1 pt ASK -58.1% * Source OAG

PASSENGER TRAFFIC CAPACITY Revenue Passenger-Kilometres - RPK Available Seat-Kilometres - ASK World passenger traffic fell by -70.6% YoY in October 2020, +2.2 percentage points Capacity worldwide fell by -59.9% YoY in October 2020, +3.1 percentage points up up from the decline in the previous month. The pace of recovery moderated further from the decline in the previous month (-63.0%). amid the resurgent epidemics and stricter containment measures. Europe was the In light of the renewed outbreaks, airlines' resumption of operations is likely to main contributor to the moderation, being the only region with deteriorated traffic slow down, and the contraction in world capacity in November is expected to be at decline. On the contrary, Africa and Latin America/Caribbean have shown more -58.1% YoY. resilience. Domestic travel in China demonstrated the best performance with traffic recovering to nearly pre-pandemic levels. 900 20% RPK RPK YoY 1,000 ASK ASK YoY 20% 900 800 0% 4.5% 0% 700 3.3% 800 2.4% YoY growth -14.1% -20% YoY growth 1.8% 1.7% 600 700 2.1% -20% 600 -8.7% -36.2% 500 -40%

(billion) 500 -40% (billion) -52.9%

400 -60% 400 ASK

RPK 300 -60% 300 -58.1% -75.3%-72.8%-70.6% -80% -63.8%-63.0%-59.9% 200 -79.8% 200 -86.5% -70.1% -80% 100 -94.3% -91.3% -100% 100 -80.1% -87.0%-86.0%

- -120% - -100%

Jul-20

Jan-20

Jun-20

Oct-20

Apr-20

Feb-20 Sep-20

Dec-19

Jan-20

Aug-20

Jun-20

Nov-19 Nov-20

Oct-20

Mar-20

Apr-20

Feb-20 Sep-20

Dec-19

May-20

Aug-20

Nov-19

Mar-20 May-20 (Source: ICAO, IATA, OAG) (Source: ICAO, IATA, OAG) International Traffic vs. Tourist Arrivals Load Factor - LF

International passenger traffic fell by -87.8% YoY in October 2020, +1.0 percentage The passenger Load Factor reached 60.2% in October 2020, +0.1 percentage point point up from the decline in the previous month. Improvements in international travel higher than the previous month. continued to be insignificant with subdued demand and ongoing cross-border travel As the fall in air travel demand was still deeper than capacity cut, the October LF was restrictions across all regions. -21.8 percentage points lower than the rate in the same period of 2019. The international tourist arrivals also remained stagnant and followed a similar trend as international passenger traffic. 20% 2.9% 2.3% 1.8% 90% 0% -11.7% 80% 3.1% 3.8% 2.5% 82.3% 82.0% -20% -10.1% 81.1% 80.3% 70% 75.9% -40% -54.6% 60%

LF LF 2019-2020 -60% -55.8% 60.1% 60.2% -78.6% -80.0% 60.6% 57.6% 57.9% 58.5% -80.5% -83% 50% LF 2018-2019 YoY growth YoY -80% international RPK -97.1%-96.6%-91.5% 50.7% international tourist arrivals* -100% -91.9% -88.3% -88.8% -87.8% 40% -98.4% -98.3% -96.8%

-120% 30% 36.6%

Jul

Jan

Jun

Oct

Apr

Feb Sep

Dec

Aug

Nov

Mar

May

Jul-20

Jan-20

Jun-20

Oct-20

Apr-20

Feb-20 Sep-20

Dec-19

Aug-20

Nov-19

Mar-20 May-20 *UNWTO Definition (Source: IATA, UNWTO) (Source: IATA)

FREIGHT TRAFFIC 0% -1.1% Freight Tonne-Kilometres - FTK -5% -2.7% -3.3% -1.4% -6.2% World freight traffic reported a decline of -6.2% YoY in October 2020, +1.8 -10% -8.0% FTK -15.2% -12.6% percentage points up from the fall in the previous month. Demand in air cargo -15% -13.5% continued to recover significantly faster than air travel demand, despite at a slightly -20% -17.6%

eased pace. The main cause of the overall moderation was the softening in North growth YoY -20.3% America and Africa, particularly in the latter. Nevertheless, the two regions remained -25% as the strongest performing ones and have returned to pre-crisis levels since -30% -27.7%

September. Moreover, the recovery in the Middle East stalled, affected by a weaker

Jul-20 Jan-20

demand to/from Africa. Improvements were recorded by the remaining regions with Jun-20

Oct-20

Apr-20

Feb-20 Sep-20

Dec-19

Aug-20

Nov-19

Mar-20 May-20 a particularly brisk upswing in Latin America/Caribbean. (Source: IATA)

ACRONYMS: ACI: Airports Council International; ASK: Available Seat-Kilometres; IATA: International Air Transport Association; FTK: Freight Tonne-Kilometres; LF: Passenger Load Factor; OAG: Official Airline Guide; RPK: Revenue Passenger-Kilometres; UNWTO: World Tourism Organization; YoY: Year-on-year; YTD: Year-to-date. DEC 2020: Air Transport Monthly Monitor World Results and Analyses for OCT 2020. Total scheduled services (domestic and international). Air Transport Bureau E-mail: [email protected]

TOP 15 AIRPORTS (Ranked by aircraft departures, passengers and volume of freight) OCT 2020: -28.1%, -36.9%, and +6.2% YoY in terms of aircraft departures, passengers and freight for the Top 15 OCT 20

Airports Departures YoY Airports Passengers* YoY Airports Freight** YoY (ranking by number of departures) (ranking by number of passengers) (ranking by tonnes of freight) Atlanta GA, US (ATL) 23,680 -38.1% Guangzhou, CN (CAN) 2,473,198 -22.1% Memphis TN, US (MEM) 410,851 8.9% Dallas/Fort Worth TX, US (DFW) 22,750 -26.8% Chengdu, CN (CTU) 2,405,190 -1.1% Hong Kong SAR, CN (HKG) 400,000 -4.6% Chicago IL, US (ORD) 21,919 -47.0% Beijing, CN (PEK) 2,217,211 -48.7% Shanghai, CN (PVG) 331,799 3.2% Denver CO, US (DEN) 19,756 -29.2% Shenzhen, CN (SZX) 2,122,981 -7.9% Anchorage AK, US (ANC) 302,452 26.4% Guangzhou, CN (CAN) 19,460 -7.3% Shanghai, CN (PVG) 1,950,355 -37.9% Incheon, KR (ICN) 253,690 5.8% Shanghai, CN (PVG) 17,824 -17.3% Dallas/Fort Worth TX, US (DFW) 1,908,009 -40.2% Louisville KY, US (SDF) 249,513 4.9% Charlotte NC, US (CLT) 17,280 -31.8% Shanghai, CN (SHA) 1,889,753 -6.2% Taipei, CN (TPE) 223,572 14.6% Shenzhen, CN (SZX) 16,113 2.1% Atlanta GA, US (ATL) 1,794,660 -62.3% Doha, QA (DOH) 208,771 6.1% Chengdu, CN (CTU) 16,089 3.0% Xi'An, CN (XIY) 1,793,609 -12.6% Los Angeles CA, US (LAX) 200,684 15.8% Phoenix AZ, US (DVT) 15,843 -21.6% Kunming, CN (KMG) 1,771,971 -11.8% Chicago IL, US (ORD) 193,549 22.5% Beijing, CN (PEK) 15,064 -40.0% Hangzhou, CN (HGH) 1,675,790 -5.3% Dubai, AE (DXB) 190,635 -13.4% Los Angeles CA, US (LAX) 14,691 -49.1% Denver CO, US (DEN) 1,657,486 -45.4% Miami FL, US (MIA) 188,963 9.4% Kunming, CN (KMG) 14,220 -4.0% Charlotte NC, US (CLT) 1,384,095 -37.4% Tokyo, JP (NRT) 182,426 4.1% Phoenix AZ, US (AZA) 13,241 -23.4% Tokyo, JP (HND) 1,333,129 -63.7% Frankfurt, DE (FRA) 174,080 3.4% Seattle WA, US (SEA) 13,188 -31.2% Chicago IL, US (ORD) 1,277,707 -66.1% Guangzhou, CN (CAN) 158,591 -1.6%

...... Note: Total scheduled and non-scheduled services (Source: ACI) In terms of aircraft departures, the Top 15 airports In terms of passengers, all the Top 15 airports posted a total In terms of freight, the Top 15 airports reported a YoY reported a combined fall of -28.1% YoY. For the second fall of -36.9% YoY. Although YoY increase observed in the increase of +6.2%. This was the fifth consecutive consecutive month, positive growth was observed in the previous month disappeared, several Chinese airports have growth since June with majority of the Top 15 posting Top 15 with two airports in China, Shenzhen and seen traffic returning closely to pre-crisis levels. Airports in YoY increase. The strongest expansion was recorded Chengdu, increasing at +2.1% and +3.0%, respectively. China and US continue to dominate the Top 15 list with by Anchorage (+26.4%) and Chicago (+22.5%). Three Atlanta ranked 1st with -38.1% decline, followed by Guangzhou retaining the 1st place. Tokyo overtook Antalya airports, Hong Kong, Dubai and Guangzhou were the ** Chicago and Dallas/Fort+4.8% Worth. for the Top 15 and returned to the Top 15. only ones posting declines.

TOP 15 AIRLINE GROUPS (Ranked by RPK) OCT 20 RPK (billion) % Share OCT 2020: -60.7% YoY in terms of RPK for the Top 15 Cumulative YoY of World % Share In terms of RPK, the Top 15 airline groups accounted for 58.8% of the world's total RPK in October - 5 10 15 20 Total 2020 and declined by -60.7% YoY. This decline was 9.9 percentage points smaller than the fall in China Southern 18.2 -25.6% 8.9% 8.9% world's average RPK, with all airlines in the Top 15 posting contractions. Air China 12.7 -35.3% 6.3% 15.2% China Eastern 12.5 -33.0% 6.2% 21.4% Same airlines as in the previous month claimed the Top 15 albeit with diverging recovery pace. All in American1 10.6 -62.8% 5.2% 26.6% all, airlines with larger domestic markets appeared to be more resilient. United1 9.7 -65.6% 4.8% 31.4% 1 Delta 9.3 -70.6% 4.6% 36.0% 1 Chinese airlines continued to lead the chart and posted considerably smaller declines. China AF-KLM 7.2 -71.3% 3.6% 39.5% 1 Southern, Air China, and China Eastern maintained the Top 3 with traffic returning to over 60% of Southwest 7.0 -60.6% 3.5% 43.0% 2019 levels. Two other airlines, Hainan Airlines and Spring Airlines, ranked at 9th and 15th, Hainan Airlines 6.5 -47.8% 3.2% 46.2% Aeroflot 5.6 -58.2% 2.7% 48.9% respectively; and the latter also recorded the fastest recovery among the Top 15 with a moderate 1 IAG 4.8 -80.6% 2.4% 51.3% 1 decline of -3.6%. Lufthansa Group 4.4 -83.4% 2.2% 53.4% Turkish Airlines 4.2 -70.0% 2.0% 55.5% Following the Top 3 Chinese airlines were the three major US airlines, i.e. American, United and 1 Ryanair 3.5 -77.0% 1.7% 57.2% Delta whose traffic declined ranging from -60 to -70%. Southwest improved two positions to 8th Spring Airlines 3.3 -3.6% 1.6% 58.8% with a slightly faster recovery among the US airlines. Top 15 Total RPKs 120 billion -60.7% 58.8% Marginal improvements were recorded by airlines in Europe, nevertheless, AF-KLM climbed up two World Total RPKs 203 billion -70.6% 100.0% positions to 7th outperforming other airlines in the region. In contrast, both Aeroflot and Ryanair were down two positions respectively to 10th and 14th, posting deteriorated declines, particularly (Source: ICAO, airlines' websites) for Aeroflot due to the slowdown in domestic traffic recovery. Note: Total scheduled and non-scheduled services

CAPACITY BY REGION (ICAO Statistical Regions) Worldwide capacity contracted by OCT 2020: -59.9% YoY in terms of World ASK -59.9% YoY in October 2020. Capacity were added in all regions % Share of Capacity by Region -65.1% YoY with the exception in Europe which -55.1% YoY 2.2% Africa -60.8% YTD -50.5% YTD has seen further cut in response to Asia/Pacific the spike in COVID-19 cases and 24.9% -54.5% YoY more restricted cross-border travel. Europe -54.1% YTD 37.5% -72.4% YoY North America and Asia/Pacific 7.2% Latin America/Caribbean -65.60% YoY -62.3% YTD -63.9% YoY showed the fastest recovery in 23.6% -62.2% YTD 4.6% Middle East -59.2% YTD capacity, while Latin

North America America/Caribbean and Africa World: recorded the biggest improvements (Source: ICAO, IATA, OAG) -59.9% YoY -56.4% YTD compared to the previous month. Note: Total scheduled services

* Embarked Passengers ** Loaded and Unloaded Freight inTonnes 1. ICAO estimates