Research Newsletter

Volume 23 Number 1 Article 3

1-1-2016

Employment Research, Vol. 23, No. 1, January 2016

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Citation W.E. Upjohn Institute. 2016. Employment Research. 23(1). https://doi.org/10.17848/1075-8445.23(1)

This title is brought to you by the Upjohn Institute. For more information, please contact [email protected]. JANUARY 2016 Susan Houseman and Carolyn Heinrich In this issue . . .

Susan Houseman and Carolyn Heinrich The Nature and Role of The Nature and Role of Temporary Help Work in Temporary Help Work in the U.S. Economy

 the U.S. Economy

Johannes Schmieder and This article is based on the authors’ working paper, workers work at the clients’ sites, typically Deborah Goldschmidt “Temporary Help Employment in and under the clients’ supervision, they are Domestic Reduces Recovery,” Upjohn Institute Working Paper No. 15- the legal employees of the temporary help 227. To read the paper, please visit research.upjohn agency. Government surveys collect no and Contributes to .org/up_workingpapers/227/. Rising Inequality information on the industries to which temporary agency workers are assigned, lthough only about 2 percent of  A so we know little about where the work is and workers are employed in performed and the employment outcomes the temporary help industry, temporary WEEfocus Books of these workers. agencies account for a much larger This article provides insights into the share of the U.S. workforce in blue- nature of temporary help work at one Vol. 23, No. 1 collar occupations and play an outsized of the largest staffi ng companies in the role in workforce adjustment during United States, using detailed information Employment Research is published and recoveries. According to on all temporary orders in the U.S. quarterly by the W.E. Upjohn Institute for data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, Employment Research. Issues appear in operations of the company from 2007 January, April, July, and October. 8.4 percent of workers in production to 2011. The temporary help industry occupations and 16.1 percent of workers is diverse, and we do not claim that our The Institute is a nonprofi t, independent in material-moving occupations (such data are representative of all companies. research organization devoted to fi nding and as warehouse workers and industrial promoting solutions to employment-related Nevertheless, this company’s practices problems at the international, national, state, truck drivers) are hired through staffi ng are likely similar to those at other large and local levels. The Institute is an activity companies. Refl ecting, in part, the staffi ng companies, and, to the extent that of the W.E. Upjohn Trustee concentration of its employment in this is the case, our data should describe Corporation, which was established in 1932 cyclically sensitive occupations, the to administer a fund set aside by Dr. W.E. an important segment of the industry. Upjohn, founder of the Upjohn Company, to temporary help industry contracted by conduct research on the causes and effects 30 percent and accounted for 11 percent Where Temporary Help Workers Work of unemployment and seek measures for the of net employment losses economy-wide alleviation of the hardships suffered by the during the . unemployed. The occupational distribution of Despite its importance in the macro hours worked in our temporary help W.E. Upjohn Institute economy, relatively little is known about fi rm is closely comparable to that of for Employment Research the nature of temporary help work or the temporary help industry in national 300 S. Westnedge Avenue its role in workforce adjustment. This Kalamazoo, MI 49007-4686 statistics. As in national data, about (269) 343-5541 information gap results in large part from half of employment is in industrial or www.upjohn.org the fact that temporary help agencies blue-collar occupations, which include function as labor market intermediaries, production occupations and materials- Randall W. Eberts contracting out workers to client President handling and logistics occupations. organizations. Although temp agency Together, blue-collar and offi ce

ISSN 1075–8445 Employment Research JANUARY 2016 occupations account for three-fourths of Figure 1 Length of Temporary Help Assignments by Broad Occupation, 2007–2010 the hours worked in our fi rm. Another 15 percent of hours are in a variety of Panel A: Distribution of Assignment Length (%) professional and technical occupations, 60 which include in law, health, < 1 month accounting, science, and education. 1–3 months 50 Just as in national statistics, the 3–6 months temporary help fi rm represented in our 6–12 months data does not systematically collect 40 1+ years information on the industries in which their workers are placed. For the years 30 2010 and 2011, however, the temporary help fi rm linked client names and addresses to business lists that include 20 industry information. Through this process, it was possible to code industry for assignments that accounted for 10 two-thirds of its temporary help hours in these years. Consistent with the 0 occupational patterns of temporary help Industrial Office Professional All assignments workers, a majority of workers were and technical placed in industries that heavily utilize manual labor. Among temporary help Panel B: Share of Hours Worked by Assignment Length (%) hours for which client industry could be 60 identifi ed, over half (53 percent) were in < 1 month the manufacturing sector, 7 percent were 50 1–3 months in wholesale trade, and 6 percent were in 3–6 months transportation. 6–12 months 40 1+ years How Temporary Are Temporary Help Jobs? 30 While the name temporary help implies short-term assignments, case 20 studies and the media have reported instances in which workers are on assignments for an extended time 10 period, a phenomenon dubbed “perma- temping” (Eisenberg 1999). Our 0 data, which include information on Industrial Office Professional All assignments assignment start and end dates, paint a and technical complex picture. As shown in Panel A of Figure 1, which plots the distribution technical workers that fi gure was 9 help agency. In industrial and offi ce of assignment lengths for selected percent. occupations, respectively, 28 percent broad occupations and all assignments As we discuss below, however, a large and 37 percent of hours worked are in commencing between 2007 and 2010, share of workers are fi red or quit prior to assignments lasting at least one year, the large majority of assignments at this the completion of their assignment, which and 52 percent and 59 percent of hours temporary help fi rm are short. Three- skews the distribution of assignment worked are in assignments lasting at least fourths of all assignments lasted less than length. Moreover, by defi nition, long six months. For professional and technical three months, with over half lasting less assignments account for a disproportionate workers, nearly half (49 percent) of the than one month. Even in assignments share of hours worked. Panel B of Figure work occurred in assignments lasting a involving professional and technical 1, which shows the distribution of hours year or more, and over 70 percent were workers, the duration was less than three worked in temporary assignments by the in assignments with a duration of at least months in two-thirds of the cases. In length of those assignments, displays the six months. Thus, while most temporary contrast, 4 percent of all assignments opposite pattern of that in Panel A: long help assignments are short, the majority of commencing during these years lasted assignments account for the majority temporary help work takes place in long- a year or more; for professional and of work performed in the temporary lasting assignments. 2 Employment Research JANUARY 2016

Transitions to Permanent Positions Houseman, Kalleberg, and Erickcek staff is most apparent during recessions, and Other Outcomes 2003). when many fi rms simultaneously Figure 2 shows the distribution of experience adverse demand conditions Temporary help positions often are assignment outcomes: fi red or quit, and terminate temporary help contracts promoted as pathways to permanent hired by the client, otherwise completed to quickly reduce staffi ng levels. During employment. Client organizations have the assignment, or other outcomes; the recession and initial recovery, the opportunity to see how a temporary the last category includes the client when many are uncertain about future agency worker performs on the and terminating the contract early for reasons economic conditions, employers also may may offer workers a permanent position other than worker performance. Most disproportionately rely on temporary help following the temp assignment. While this notable is the large share of temp agency staff to expand their workforces. Indeed, screening process typically is informal, workers who are fi red or quit before the although the temporary help industry the temporary help fi rm we study also assignment is complete—about one- experienced robust growth following designates certain contracts (about 4 third. In industrial occupations, which the offi cial end of the recession in 2009, percent) as “temp-to-hire,” meaning that include the lowest-paying jobs, that employment growth in the economy there is an explicit understanding that the share exceeds 40 percent. Being fi red for overall was weak until 2012. A leading worker is auditioning for a permanent tardiness or failing to report to work are hypothesis for that weak aggregate position with the client. In our data, especially common among those in low- employment growth is that companies about 7 percent of all temporary help wage occupations. Our data point to a were uncertain about the strength of assignments ended in a hire by the client. signifi cant challenge that temporary help the recovery and were reluctant to take The hire rate was only slightly higher agencies have in fi nding good matches on permanent employees (International among professional and technical workers between workers and organizations. Monetary Fund 2012). Consistent with (8.8 percent) than among offi ce workers Diffi culty recruiting and retaining this hypothesis, our model estimates, (8.0 percent) and industrial workers (6.6 workers in these positions may help which control for changes in the quality percent). Individuals, of course, may explain companies’ extensive reliance on of temporary help workers during the work on multiple assignments before they temporary help agencies to fi ll them. recession, show that companies reduced fi nd a good match. Over the fi ve-year hiring from the pool of temporary help period covered by our data, 15 percent of Temporary Help in Recession workers and lengthened the duration all individuals working for the temp help and Recovery of temporary assignments during the fi rm were ultimately hired by a client. recession and initial recovery period. Thus, although a sizable share land a The temporary agency company’s data permanent job via their temp assignment, span the recession and early years of the The Future of Temporary our data suggest that in the large majority recovery, and we use it to provide insights Help Workers of cases, fi rms are using temporary help into the dynamics of temporary help agencies to meet a temporary staffi ng employment in recession and recovery. Although unemployment rates have need. Employers’ reliance on temporary help returned to prerecession levels, wage Interestingly, even in temp-to-hire assignments, less than half ended in a Figure 2 Outcomes of Assignments in Temporary Help Agency (% distribution) hire by the client. Among professional and technical workers, 44 percent of 70 temp-to-hire assignments ended in a hire, and among industrial workers, 60 only 22 percent were hired by the client. Fired or quit Although of new hires is high in Hired industries using industrial workers, our 50 Completed assignment analysis indicates that it is considerably Other lower than the implied turnover of those 40 in temp-to-hire positions, who spend their probationary period on the payroll of the 30 temporary agency. With the caveat that we cannot control for possible differences in the pool of new hires entering from 20 temporary help fi rms and new hires made directly by employers, our fi ndings 10 are consistent with case study evidence indicating that use of temporary help 0 agencies to screen new hires allows fi rms Industrial Office Professional and All assignments to be more selective (Cappelli 2012; technical

3 Employment Research JANUARY 2016 growth is weak, labor force participation Johannes Schmieder and Deborah Goldschmidt is historically low, and deep concerns remain, particularly about the low-wage workforce. Temporary help agencies, Domestic Outsourcing which hire a disproportionate share of low-wage workers, are often touted as providing a pathway to permanent, Reduces Wages and better jobs for these workers, yet we see strikingly low hire rates in our data, even Contributes to Rising among those in temp-to-hire contracts. Low conversion rates to permanent jobs with clients refl ect the fact that employers Inequality are highly selective in making job offers to temporary help workers, but they also This article highlights fi ndings from “The Rise of rather than offshoring, as it refers to a refl ect skills defi cits among the workers. Domestic Outsourcing and the Evolution of the Ger- form of outsourcing where the service Performance problems or quits prior to man Wage Structure,” Upjohn Institute Working provider is located in the same country. assignment completion drive a signifi cant Paper No. 15-244. To read the paper, please visit We document for the fi rst time in detail research.upjohn.org/up_workingpapers/244/. share of temporary help assignment the increase in outsourced labor services terminations, with “soft skill” problems over the last three decades in Germany, such as tardiness and unexcused absences The last three decades have seen a focusing in particular on cleaning, notably high among the lower-paid thorough transformation of the nature security, logistics, and food services. temporary workers. In sum, our data of the labor market, with large fi rms Figure 1 shows the share of all full- indicate that the pathway to better jobs increasingly relying on nontraditional time workers in business service fi rms via temporary help employment currently employment arrangements such as that provide cleaning, security, and is limited for low-wage workers. outsourcing, temporary or contingent logistics services, as well as , offshoring, and subcontracting. help agencies. In 1975 only 2 percent References Across a wide range of industries, of the German labor force worked for fi rms have been focusing on their such companies, but that number almost Cappelli, Peter. 2012. Why Good People “core competencies” and hiring outside quadrupled by 2008 to around 7 percent. Can’t Get Jobs: The Skills Gap and What companies to provide services that were A substantial share of this rise is due to Companies Can Do About It. Philadelphia: once performed by their own employees, the growth in both temp agency work and Wharton Digital Press. such as cleaning, security, logistics, human business service fi rms. Since employment resources, or information technology. in cleaning, security, and logistics Eisenberg, Daniel. 1999. “Rise of the Outsourcing to business service occupations has remained relatively Permatemp.” Time, July 12. http://content.time providers potentially allows for reductions constant, this suggests that a much larger .com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,27707,00. in wages for the contracted-out jobs. The html (accessed March 12, 2015). share of these occupations are now outsourcing fi rms are often traditional working for contractors. Houseman, Susan N., Arne L. Kalleberg, lead companies in sectors such as In order to obtain credible effects of and George A. Erickcek. 2003. “The Role manufacturing or fi nance, and they outsourcing on wages, we develop a new of Temporary Agency Employment in Tight typically offer the most attractive jobs, method of identifying a particular type Labor Markets.” Industrial and Labor with higher wages, increased , of outsourcing—on-site outsourcing— Relations Review 57(1): 105–127. strong worker representation, and union which refers to situations where a large coverage. Large employers may thus employer spins out a group of workers International Monetary Fund. 2012. fi nd it benefi cial to reduce the number providing a particular service, such as “World Economic Outlook: IMF Sees of direct employees who benefi t from cafeteria workers, to a legally separate Heightened Risks Sapping Slower Global such wage premia by outsourcing jobs to business unit, such as a subsidiary or an Recovery.” IMF Survey Magazine: IMF subcontractors. These business service Research, October 9. , DC: existing business service provider. In these fi rms compete fi ercely with each other for International Monetary Fund. http://www situations the outsourced workers still .imf.org/external/pubs/ft/survey/so/2012/ service contracts from large companies work together and do essentially the same res100812a.htm (accessed March 16, 2015). on price, and since labor costs are a large job at the same physical location but for share of business service fi rms’ total costs, a different employer. Such outsourcing Susan Houseman is a senior economist at the this creates intense pressure to lower events can be identifi ed in administrative Upjohn Institute. Carolyn Heinrich is professor of wages and reduce benefi ts. data sets using worker fl ows between public policy and at the Peabody College We analyze domestic labor service and professor of economics in the College of Arts establishments. and Sciences at Vanderbilt University. outsourcing in Germany using detailed The basic intuition is that if a group administrative data on workers and fi rms. of workers is contracted out at the same We use the term domestic outsourcing time, this can be observed by following 4 Employment Research JANUARY 2016 the establishment identifi ers as well Figure 1 Fraction of Full-Time Workers in Germany in Cleaning, Security, or as occupation and industry codes. For Logistics Business Service Firms or Temp Agencies, by Year example, if a group of workers splits off from a large bank in year t − 1 and forms a 0.08 new establishment identifi er in year t with Cleaning, security, or logistics business service firms or temp agencies Temp agencies an industry code of “cafeteria,” this likely 0.07 indicates that the bank is outsourcing its cafeteria staff. We compare workers who 0.06 are outsourced in these on-site outsourcing events to workers in the same occupation and industry who are not outsourced and 0.05 estimate how their wages change over time. 0.04 Figure 2 shows the main estimates of outsourcing’s effect on wages. While 0.03 wages of both groups of workers move in parallel up to the year of outsourcing (year 0 in the fi gure), they drop for the 0.02 outsourced workers as soon as outsourcing occurs by about 2.5 percent. The wage 0.01 differential then keeps growing until it reaches about 10 percent, approximately 0 5–10 years after outsourcing. This 1975 1978 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 suggests large and long-lasting wage differentials between outsourced and SOURCE: Authors’ calculations. in-house jobs. Since these differences also imply that outsourcing may lead to substantial cost savings to employers, we Figure 2 The Effect of Outsourcing on Log Wages of Outsourced Workers in Germany investigate whether fi rms that pay higher wages relative to the market have a higher 0.02 likelihood of outsourcing any of their labor services, and we do indeed fi nd that 0.00 fi rms are signifi cantly more likely to do 0.02 so the more they pay above market-level í wages. í0.04 Finally, we consider the relationship between the documented impacts of í0.06 outsourcing in Germany and the broad changes in the country’s wage structure í0.08 over the last three decades. Dustmann et al. (2014) document a dramatic decline of í0.10 real wages at the lower end of the wage distribution since the early 2000s. After a í0.12 decade of stagnation from 1990 to 2000, real wages at the 15th percentile fell by í0.14 around 10 percent between 2000 and 2008. í0.16 Furthermore, Card, Heining, and Kline (2013) observe that low-skill í0.18 workers are increasingly working 0510 at low-paying establishments and Years relative to outsourcing are increasingly concentrated in NOTE: The blue lines represent 95 percent confi dence intervals. The fi gure shows the evolution of establishments with homogenous wages for outsourced workers in food, cleaning, security, and logistics occupations relative to the workforces where most workers have wages of workers in the same occupations and industries who are not outsourced. Year 0 is the similar occupations. Outsourcing provides fi rst year of outsourcing. The y-axis is measured in fraction of relative wage losses to obtain the a natural explanation for this, since it wage loss in percent multiply by 100. typically involves outsourcing low-skill SOURCE: Authors’ calculations.

5 Employment Research JANUARY 2016 workers to very competitive low-paying for by the increase in outsourcing of service fi rms makes it diffi cult for establishments. In addition, outsourcing just these four occupations. Since many outsourced workers to bargain for a share provides a natural explanation for the other tasks experienced an increase in of the fi rm rents at the lead company. In increase in occupational sorting: since outsourcing, this should be viewed as a this article, we provide careful estimates business service fi rms are much more lower bound with the overall contribution of how this translates into lower wages homogenous (for example, in the typical of all forms of outsourcing to wage for outsourced workers, and we fi nd cleaning fi rm, about 60 percent of the inequality possibly being much larger. that across a wide range of measures, employees are cleaners), moving workers The labor market has seen a fundamental outsourcing reduces wages by around from heterogeneous lead employers to restructuring in recent decades, with lead 10 percent. Our method implies that this business service fi rms that employ largely employers increasingly contracting out is not due to selection of different types the same occupations as the outsourced parts of their noncore labor force. of workers in outsourced employment worker will increase the overall This reorganization of the production relationships or to differences in the occupational assortativeness. structure changes the employment types of jobs that outsourced workers We quantify the contribution of relationship for a large share of the do. Instead, it appears that outsourced outsourcing to the rise in wage inequality workforce. As more workers become workers receive lower pay because they in Germany using a reweighting employed by specialized business service are excluded from fi rm rents that are being method, which allows us to calculate fi rms, they fi nd themselves working for paid to workers at the lead companies. a counterfactual distribution of wages companies that provide narrow products It is diffi cult to know why fi rms decide in Germany under the scenario that and compete fi ercely with similar fi rms to outsource parts of their workforces, outsourcing did not increase since the for contracts with lead companies. This but our evidence indicates that fi rms that 1980s. Figure 3 shows the evolution creates pressure to reduce costs and lower pay wage premia to their workers are of different percentiles of the wage wages, which likely makes up a large more likely to outsource. This suggests distribution relative to 1985. Especially share of input costs among these types of that saving on labor costs is part of the for low wages, outsourcing contributed business service providers. motivation, but other reasons include substantially to the increase in inequality. This restructuring also drastically comparative advantage of business service Overall we show that about 9 percent of changes the bargaining environment, as fi rms in their specialty, cost savings the increase in inequality can be accounted the price competition among business through economies of scale, and gains in effi ciency through market pressures in the competitive environment of bidding Figure 3 The Contribution of Oursourcing of Cleaning, Security, and Logistics for service contracts. It is even more Occupations to the Rise in Wage Inequality in Germany diffi cult to know what is driving the long- term increase in outsourcing. Changes 0.30 15th actual 15th reweighted in management philosophy (e.g., a move 50th actual 50th reweighted toward emphasis on shareholder value in 0.25 85th actual 85th reweighted the 1980s and 1990s) may be of similar importance as the development of new 0.20 technologies makes it easier to rely on contractors. Understanding this is beyond 0.15 the scope of this project but a fruitful area for future research.

0.10 References

0.05 Card, David, Jörg Heining, and Patrick Kline. 2013. “Workplace Heterogeneity and the Rise of West German Wage Inequality.” 0.00 Quarterly Journal of Economics 128(3): 967–1015. í0.05 Dustmann, Christian, Bernd Fitzenberger, Uta Schönberg, and Alexandra Spitz-Oener. í0.10 2014. “From Sick Man of Europe to Economic 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 Superstar: Germany’s Resurgent Economy.” Journal of Economic Perspectives 28(1): NOTE: The fi gure shows the percentage change in wages relative to 1985 at the 15th, 50th, and 85th 167–188. percentiles of the wage distribution for full-time men. The blue lines show the evolution of the actual wage distribution, while the red lines show how the wage distribution would have evolved Johannes Schmieder is an assistant professor if outsourcing for cleaning, security, and logistics workers had not increased relative to 1985. and Deborah Goldschmidt is a PhD candidate, both SOURCE: Authors’ calculations. at Boston University. 6 WEfocus Books

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