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TEL: (222) 25 39 18 FAX: (222) 25 39 18 E-mail: [email protected] MONTHLY REPORT FOR NOVEMBER 2001 RAPPORT MENSUEL DU MOIS DE NOVEMBRE 2001

This report covers the period from October 25 to November 20, 2001

Summary

The summer rainy season has come to an end and grazing lands are drying up. There have been no sightings of locusts but the grasshoppers are slowing down the plant growth by attacking new shoots and this will affect yields. Harvests of dieri (rainfed highland) crops were not very good. These were watermelon crops, which were the most impacted by dry spells and pests.

Harvest of irrigated crops is expected to have little effect on the current food situation. Very few communities have actually planted rainy season crops and the size of farm units (1/4 hectare per household) and resulting yields (less than or equal to 3. 5 tons/ha) are so small that farmers are left with very little land for their own consumption.

Any hope that farmers may have had for a good harvest of walo, or flood-recession crops, evaporated as water levels remained low, and the outlook for lowland crops is less and less encouraging with no countermeasures being taken against the grasshoppers or caterpillars which have been destroying these crops for the past several years.

The start-up of truck farming activities may help lessen the severity of the lean period by sometime in late December.

Grazing conditions remain satisfactory. However, there are reports of brush fires in grazing areas in the east and south. Animal herds in food-short areas of Trarza and Tagant have already begun their seasonal trek to southern Brakna, Gorgol and Assaba. Animal health conditions are generally good, but there are still cases of foot and mouth disease in grazing areas along the country's border with Mali.

No measures have been taken to make up the shortfall in rainfed grain production in areas of the Senegal River Valley and Aftout. Harvests of millet and watermelon crops helped improve the food situation somewhat, but the rise in the price of sorghum and the surge in watermelon prices are clear indicators of the inadequacy of market supplies. Thus, following the same pattern as in the year 2000, the lean period is expected to begin two months earlier than usual (sometime in March or April).

The food security situation of most herdsmen and their families is still good although the favorable conditions are diminishing as grazing lands continue to dry up, affecting the productivity of milk-producing animals. Moreover, herdsmen are currently moving closer to main trading areas looking to sell their milk for pasteurization which is taking them farther from villages and sedentary farming communities.

The food situation in the north and in city slum areas continues to deteriorate in the face of steadily rising prices for staple food products.

The price of fish has plummeted with the reopening of the fishing season, in turn, pushing meat prices down. The approaching Ramadan period could further disrupt the food market. 1. NATURAL CONDITIONS AND PRODUCTION FACTORS

1. 1. RAINFALL

The light rains in the third dekad of October, which were limited to the southernmost reaches of Selibaby in Guidimakha, were the last rains recorded until the end of the second dekad of November. Expected changes in the current pattern of rainfall will not come until after December, when advancing polar air masses could bring rain to the northern regions of the country (Tiris Zemmour, Adrar, Inchiri , Dakhlet ) and possibly to the south. Rain fed crop farming areas reporting rainfall deficits include all of Brakna (the surpluses recorded at Bababé were limited to the city itself and its surrounding areas), Gorgol (with the exception of the Department of ), Tagant, Guidimakha and southern Hodh El Gharbi (which is one of the country's leading mixed crop and stock farming areas).

1. 2. GRAZING CONDITIONS

Grazing lands are gradually drying up. The condition of vegetation country-wide is still satisfactory. Any fears among the stock-raising population evaporated with the end of the rainy season. Barring any unforeseeable circumstances interfering with traditional migratory mechanisms, herdsmen in the departments of and southeastern R’Kiz in Trarza, Tagant and Adrar should have no difficulty reaching dry season grazing areas. The improvement in the condition of vegetation in southwestern Trarza as measured in NDVI values (which range from 0.20 to 0.41 while, elsewhere, the highest values are barely 0.20 in the southernmost reaches of Guidimakha) is largely a result of irrigation (this is the country's leading irrigated rice-growing and truck farming area) rather than of rainfall conditions in this area. The main fears at this time have to do with the brush fires which have already caused extensive damage to grazing areas of’ Hodh El Gharbi, Assaba and southeastern Guidimakha.

Animal health conditions are still good, although there are still areas of foot and mouth disease and lumpy skin disease in Hodh El Chargui, Hodh El Gharbi, Assaba and Guidimakha. Migrating animal herds are following their regular migratory routes. However, there are reports of animals moving rapidly down from Adrar towards southern Gorgol from grazing areas in Inchiri, where they had been confined until October. These unexpected migratory movements are most likely caused by water shortages and stock management problems, given the extensive grazing lands in this region of the country.

1. 3. PRODUCTION FACTORS BY TYPE OF FARMING SYSTEM

Dieri (rainfed highland) crops:Alldieri or rainfed highland crops have already been harvested. Any late- maturing crops are dying before reaching maturity due to the lack of rain. Reports of poor yields in most farming areas have been corroborated. This poor crop performance is the result of increasingly frequent periods of water stress caused by rainfall deficits (in Brakna, Gorgol, Guidimakha and Hodh El Chargui) and of grasshopper infestations of crops in the maturation-milk grain stage (in Guidimakha, Hodh El Chargui and Hodh El Gharbi).

Lowland crops: Planting has been underway since the third dekad of October in most lowland areas. Despite grasshopper infestations, the new shoots are showing good progress. The arrival of the first cold spell of the season is doubly reassuring to area farmers, who insist that the cold drives away the grasshoppers and increases the moisture in the soil.

In a departure from their practices in previous years farmers have apparently decided to plant early- maturing varieties of crops in reaction to the failure of dieri crops in mixed farming areas (dieri and lowland crops). This strategy is being followed primarily by traditional farmers in lowland areas (removed from dams), where there is less pressure on land use. Farmers have stepped up cultivation of simultaneous small plots and, as a result, are planting increasingly larger areas. They have also begun planting long season sorghum crops or maize crops in conjunction with cowpeas and squash behind area dams. Their strategy, in this case, is to use long season varieties and, thus, stagger corresponding planting activities. For general crop protection and management purposes, farmers will plant long season varieties in the first water-free areas after the floodwaters recede and grow early-maturing crops in lower- lying areas, which are not ready for planting until 30 to 45 days after the first round of crops are already in the ground. The 23% boost in the size of cropped areas, according to calculations by the FAO/CILSS/Mauritanian government mission, may be understated. In any event, the main problem is still one of protecting area crops from caterpillars, which have already been sighted in a number of fields planted in rainfed sorghum crops.

Walo (flood recession) crops: According to a farmer in the department of Bababé there are no walo,or flood recession crops. This assertion is indicative of the prevailing situation with respect to this type of farming system. Only low-lying walo areas have been flooded which, at most, represent a mere 20% of the area normally planted in walo or flood recession crops. Farmers have done some planting but are not very motivated, knowing that a 16-day submersion time is inadequate and that any crops planted run the risk of being attacked by caterpillars.

Irrigated crops: Irrigated crops planted in July and August are currently in the harvesting stage. The cutback in the size of cropped areas (compared with the three previous years) has significantly reduced yields (including yields from irrigation projects operated by private developers). This rollback in rice production is expected to increase the volume of rice imports, since the protectionism, engaged by large- scale importers (limiting imports to spur sales of locally grown rice), has already depleted most dealer- held rice inventories.

Controlled flooding: These crops are doing well and resulting yields are expected to be close to the production forecasts (3,750 tons) issued by the joint FAO/CILSS/Government mission. This type of farming system is used mainly by farmers in the department of R’Kiz in Trarza.

A region-by-region breakdown of estimated yields has produced the following production forecasts (Table 1).

TABLE 1: REGIONAL GRAIN PRODUCTION FORECASTS FOR THE 2001-2002 CROP YEAR Low Controlled Irrigated Irrigated Irrigated Gross Net Region Diere Walo land Flooding Sorghum Maize Rice Total Total HODH EL 22,713 9,620 0 0 0 0 0 32,333 27,483 CHARGUI HODH EL 3,513 4,782 0 0 0 0 0 8295 7,051 GHARBI ASSABA 10,768 4,001 0 0 0 0 0 14,769 12,554 GORGOL 6,943 1,681 1,908 0 527 0 11270 22,329 16,162 BRAKHA 5,637 5,930 899 0 0 65 6018 18,549 14,262 TRARZA 57 0 600 3,750 275 183 49508 54,373 33,840 TAGANT 2,493 1,873 0 0 0 0 0 4,366 3,711 GUIDMAKHA 5,859 340 0 0 91 43 420 6,753 5,635 ADRAR 69 0 0 0 0 0 0 69 59 TOTAL 58,052 28,227 3,407 3,750 893 291 67,216 161,836 120,757

Source: DPSE/MDRE, Graphic by FEWS NET/Mauritania

1.4. AREAS IN GOOD CONDITION

The good farming conditions in Hodh El Gharbi have had very little impact on dieri, or rainfed highland crops. Despite good growing conditions in these areas, the departments of and , both of which are leading rainfed farming areas, produced poor dieri harvests. According to the Programming, Monitoring and Evaluation Office (DPSE) attached to the Mauritanian Ministry of Rural Development and Environment (MDRE), grasshoppers have caused extensive damage to area crops in the seed formation and maturation-milk grain stages of development. In Assaba, harvests of dieri crops in the department of bore out farmer expectations. Yields from dieri or rainfed highland crops in this area were good. Lowland crops in the department of Barkéol, which is the region's second largest producer of grain (after Kankossa), look promising, but all area farmers are haunted by fears of caterpillar infestations.

In Gorgol the lack of rain has significantly scaled back production forecasts for dieri, or rainfed highland crops, with late-maturing crops already beginning to wither. This is the country's leading producer of walo, or flood recession crops. The Gorgol Noir flooded large portions of the 10,000 hectare Fori Plain area east of Kaëdi, but many farmers, particularly in the department of , have chosen not to farm this area, discouraged by repeated crop failures over the course of the past several years, preferring instead to join in the so-called "rural exodus."

In Guidimakha, crop production in the department of Ould Yengé cannot possibly make up for losses in the department of Selibaby, which is normally known as the "grain basket" for this region of the country.

1. 5. AREAS IN AVERAGE CONDITION

In Hodh El Gharbi, in the southern reaches of the department of , according to an official with SLODA (Structure Locale pour le Développement de l’Affolé), the NGO which took over for OXFAM, this year's harvests of dieri or rainfed highland crops were near-average. They might have surpassed yields for 1999 (which was considered a good year) if crops planted in mid-August had had the benefit of adequate rainfall in early November. If current problems with grasshoppers and wandering animals are resolved (there are high grasshopper densities in dammed and lowland areas), yields from flood-irrigated crops will strengthen food security in this area and, more importantly, revitalize traditional trade networks. Both Affolé and Tintane were among the leading grain production areas in Hodh El Gharbi.

In Hodh El Chargui, better crop yields (compared with 2000-2001) in the departments of Bassikounou and should improve the availability of grain, despite the production shortfall in the department of .

In Guidimakha, crop production in the department of Ould Yengé, which invariably falls short of local needs, cannot be taken into account for future grain production management purposes in the southern part of the department of Selibaby.

1.6. AREASINPOORCONDITION

There is no longer any question that farming conditions for walo, or flood recession crops throughout the entire Brakna and Gorgol regions are anything but poor at best. River levels remained low and fell quickly and, discouraged by repeated crop failures, area farmers took their time deciding whether or not to plant their fields. Those who did tended to plant more cowpea than sorghum crops and continue to be besieged by fears of caterpillar infestations.

The loss of late-maturing crops and poor yields from those crops which did manage to reach maturity underscored the mediocrity of crop production in these regions.

There has been no change in conditions in stock-raising areas of Trarza, northern and central Brakna, northern and central Gorgol and northwestern Assaba, where grazing lands are completely dry. Return migration by nomadic animal herds has slowed, and a shift in strategy is expected in the months ahead. Such changes are traditionally contingent on the size of camel herds coming down from the North. Herdsmen in Trarza and Brakna, most of who are cattlemen, do not like to share the same grazing lands with camel-drivers. 2. FOOD SITUATION AND OUTLOOK

The fall-off in nationwide grain production has not affected conditions on the grain market, which is still reporting a healthy supply of grain.

In urban areas, the staging of shortages by local shopkeepers during the month of Ramadan was sharply curtailed by government policymakers who, with the help of SONIMEX, opened low-cost retail sales outlets from which individual households could buy their food supplies directly from the government. Thus, expected price hikes (5 UM on the price of rice, for example) were lower than in previous years.

The food situation is still good in stock-raising and mixed crop and stock-farming areas, despite the fall-off in milk production as a result of the withering of grazing lands in these areas. The absence of animal herds (which are being moved closer to main arteries in an attempt to market their milk production) means that many farm families are currently without the assistance previously provided by local herdsmen. The most surprising development is in the department of Kobenni where, despite good natural conditions, rainfed crop production is so poor that the price of grain on the market (the leading grain market in that department) is already as high as 250 UM per moud (2.5 kg of rainfed grain). In contrast, in a so-called "average" year, grain prices range from 60 to 80 UM per moud.

2. 1. IN AREAS IN GOOD CONDITION

The local population still has a supply of this year's crops on hand and lowland crops appear to be doing well. Transfer mechanisms between Mali and Mauritania are operating smoothly. There should not be any major food security problems for the next two months in Hodh El Chargui, Hodh El Gharbi, southern Assaba or Guidimakha.

2. 2. IN AREAS IN AVERAGE CONDITION

The food outlook for Assaba, northern and central Brakna and central and eastern Gorgol hinges on the progress of lowland crops.

As predicted in our October report, poor dieri or rainfed highland crop yields in Aftout (in western and central Brakna, northern and western Gorgol and the western part of the department of Barkéol) prompted lenders making advances of grain against liens on upcoming harvests to hike their already usurious interest rates even higher. Already moderately food-insecure farmers in this area can expect their food situation to further deteriorate as of December.

2.3. IN AREAS IN POOR CONDITION

Harvests of irrigated crops, which are already in progress, have eased vulnerability in communities able to successfully bring in such crops. However, since few communities have actually done so and with aggregate yields down from previous years, these harvests should not be expected to have any lasting effects. The underlying reasons for this drop in food production by collective farming communities and private farms (limited access to farm credit, obsolete irrigation systems and farm equipment, repeated breakdowns of motorized pumps, mediocre quality seeds, little if any use of fertilizer etc.) have been discussed in previous reports. Large cutbacks in the size of areas planted in walo or flood-irrigated crops and adverse climatic factors during the emergence stage of the growing cycle (falling rain during the planting season closed seed-holes and prevented the new shoots from emerging from the ground) are discouraging farmers from putting much hope in harvests of walo or flood recession crops. There is no short-term remedy for the problems facing farmers in the Senegal River Valley, who are currently being classified as extremely food-insecure.

In Hodh El Gharbi, the food situation of farmers in the department of Kobenni has suddenly turned sour. The start-up of truck farming activities in Adrar and Tagant is raising the hopes of area farmers. The government has, in fact, taken specific steps (supplies of seeds, provision of food aid and equipment to women's cooperatives, etc.) to strengthen truck crop production at the nationwide level in general and in these two regions, in particular, which have a long tradition of vegetable farming in area oases, operating through the CSA (Food Security Commission) and the Ministry of Rural Development and Environment. Nevertheless, until the next vegetable harvests, whose marketing is an important source of income for many households in these areas, like their counterparts in the Senegal River Valley, farmers in both these regions will continue to be classified as extremely food-insecure.

3. CURRENT AVAILABILITY AND ACCESSIBILITY OF FOOD PRODUCTS

3.1. CONDITIONS NATIONWIDE

The 9% slippage in production from the 2000-2001 crop year is mostly in areas showing production shortfalls for the past several years. Its impact varies from one region of the country to another, whose dependency on specific types of crops and farming systems, in turn, changes from year to year (Table 2). In regions like Hodh El Chargui, where virtually all grain production is from dieri or rainfed highland crops and traditional lowland crops (this region has few dams), only animal products and imports of rice, wheat,

TABLE 2: ASSESSMENT OF REGIONAL PRODUCTION SHORTFALLS 2002 Grain Net Grain Percentage of Percentage of Surplus or Region Population in Needs/ Production/ Needs Met in Unmet Needs Deficit/ MT Thousands MT MT 2001-2002 in 2001-2002 HODH EL 314,162 55,292 27,483 -27,809 50 -50 CHARGUI HODH EL 233,303 41,061 7,051 -34,011 17 -83 GHARBI ASSABA 240,439 42,317 12,554 -29,764 30 -70 GORGOL 251,455 44,256 16,162 -28,094 37 -63 BRAKHA 269,335 47,403 14,262 -33,141 30 -70 TRARZA 235,247 41,403 33,840 -7,563 82 -18 TAGANT 86,257 15,181 3,711 -11,470 24 -76 GUIDMAKHA 170,165 29,949 5,635 -24,314 19 -81 ADRAR 81,741 14,386 59 -14,328 0 -100 NET TOTAL 1,567,942 275,958 120,757 -155,201 44 -56 Source: DPSE/MDRE, Graphic by FEWS NET/Mauritania mash, flour and grain from Mali can offset the shortfall in rainfed crop production. Brakna and Gorgol cannot count on any grain transfers from Senegal, whose border areas with Mauritania are reporting large production shortfalls this year. Transfer mechanisms between Northern Senegal and its groundnut basin will need to be working well for their spin-off effects to extend into southern Mauritania. Performance numbers for Trarza (meeting only 13% of its needs) are misleading in that, in this area, rice is a commercial crop grown for export to the country's major urban population centers (Nouakchott, Nouadhibou, Atar, Zouerate, etc.) and, thus, has very little impact on the food situation of the local population.

3.2. CURRENT SITUATION IN NEIGHBORING COUNTRIES

Conditions in Mali are still good, but transfer mechanisms with Hodh El Chargui and Hodh El Gharbi in Mauritania, particularly with the departments of Kobenni and Tintane, are running into operational problems engendered by poor grain harvests of dieri, or rainfed highland crops in the Nioro region. Farther east, in Hodh El Chargui, and father west, in Guidimakha, grain transfers are both larger in volume and more regular. This, in turn, explains the current light trading on weekly markets along both sides of the border. The future outlook for grain transfers from Senegal has not changed. Mauritania's Senegal River Valley cannot always count on the operability of transfers of traditional grains (millet, maize and sorghum) from this neighboring country.

3.2.1. SUPPLY OF STAPLE FOODS AND PRICE TRENDS

Cuts in prices of traditional grains in farming areas in the southern and eastern parts of the country (Hodh, Assaba, Guidimakha and Gorgol) were short-lived. Sorghum prices have already begun climbing again on most markets around the country (Figure 1). The steady prices on the Kaëdi and Boghé markets can be attributed to ongoing or imminent paddy rice harvests in near-by villages (in the Boghé pilot irrigation project area). This price stability, by all accounts, is expected to be short-lived. Many farmers are currently forced to buy imported grain (rice, wheat) on credit, at twice its cash price, either by mortgaging their next harvests, or with income earned from sales of small animals (this strategy is employed only by mixed crop and stock farmers), which is a clear sign of poor "dieri" harvests.

FIGURE 1: TRENDS IN SORGHUM PRICES ON MARKETS IN GRAIN PRODUCING AREAS

140 Jul Aug Sep 120 Oct Nov

100

80

UM/kg 60

40

20

0

i t iz e e el a u y u 'k R ogh aba aed 'bou uno B K ngu o B o M k elibab M agham S M si dibougo as o B M Source: CSA; Graphic by FEWS NET/Mauritania

Domestic markets still have large supplies of staple foodstuffs and, thus far, the price hikes feared by consumers with the holy month of Ramadan approaching have been quite moderate (5 UM on the price of rice, 20 UM on the price of milk, 0 UM on the price of sugar, tea and oil).

3.2.2. ACCESS TO FOOD SUPPLIES

A look at Table 2 shows shortfalls in local grain production in every region of the country compared with the needs of the area population. In fact, under what is primarily a subsistence farming system, any reduction in the availability of grain will, in effect, make food products that much less accessible. All coping strategies (selling small animals, gathering wild plants, taking advantage of social aid, etc.) are, without exception, specifically designed to help manage food emergencies since, in the minds of both farmers and herdsmen alike, the sale of an animal is a difficult decision to take, in that it shows others the true extent of one's poverty, which is something everyone is constantly looking to hide. Even areas with so-called «good» "dieri" crop production such as Hodh El Chargui will, at best, be able to meet 50% of their needs. Assaba, covering 30% of its needs, is in a somewhat better position than the other regions of the country, with just three departments producing the crops meeting an average of 30% of the needs of all 5 departments making up this region, namely Kankossa (accounting for 55% of region- wide production), Barkéol (30%) and (10%). The departments of Boumdeïd and are primarily stock-raising areas, with a small volume of lowland crop production (Boumdeïd) and large-scale cash crop production (in Guerou).

The accessibility of food products in areas with average harvests hinges on lowland crop performance and the operability of transfer mechanisms with Mali. These are generally farming areas lying close to the Malian border, with large populations of herdsmen and mixed crop and stock farmers.

Elsewhere, dwindling grain transfers from neighboring countries are making area farmers more dependent on local trade channels. Farm families in these areas are being forced to put themselves in debt in order to eat, pending upcoming harvests of lowland crops (in the best-case scenario) or by mortgaging their next harvest of "dieri" crops. We are already beginning to see major changes in the food situation of residents of farming areas of the Senegal River Valley and Hodh El Chargui and Hodh El Gharbi compared with the month of October. There is very little likelihood that this year's lower grain yields will seriously affect the farm population in southern Guidimakha and southeastern Gorgol, with residents of both these areas well provided for by monthly funds transfers from the many natives of these areas currently living abroad. In the words of a farmer from Diaguili, a village south of Guidimakha, who we met in the bus depot arriving from Sélibaby: «It hasn't been a very good year but, God willing, we won't have to go hungry as long as the postal service doesn't break down».

The food situation in urban areas should improve in the wake of current rollbacks in fish prices. Prices for all types of fish have plummeted (by approximately 50%) since the resumption of fishing activities. Current good market supplies of gray mullet, the so-called «poor man's fish», which is caught mainly for its eggs (a 2 kg whole fish, emptied of its eggs, can be sold for up to 10 UM each) are a godsend for low- income households.