New Leaders New Direction Editorial Team

www.westafricaninsight.org Vol 6. No 4. 2018 ISSN 2006-1544

NEW LEADERS NEW DIRECTION EDITORIAL TEAM

EDITOR IN CHIEF IDAYAT HASSAN

EDITOR JAMIE HITCHEN

PROJECT OFFICER JULIET UGWU

CONTRIBUTORS

Ibrahim Al-bakri Nyei A Liberian researcher, political analyst, blogger and columnist.

Ismaila Ceesay A senior lecturer in political science at the University of the Gambia. His research interests include: youths and livelihood, ICTs, migration and political transitions.

Wunpini Fatimata Mohammed A PhD candidate at the Donald P. Bellisario College of Communications, Penn- sylvania State University. Her research focuses on feminisms, broadcast media and development communication in Africa.

Cheta Nwanze Head of research at SBM Intelligence, a Lagos based advisory that focuses on geopolitics and socioeconomics.

Hassan Kallon A research fellow at the Institute for Governance Reform in Sierra Leone.

Andrew Lavali The executive director of the Institute for Governance Reform in Sierra Leone TABLE OF CONTENTS

EDITORIAL 2

GEORGE WEAH: A NEW DIRECTION FOR TACKLING 5 POVERTY IN LIBERIA?

NANA AKUFO-ADDO: PUTTING MAR- GINALISED WOMEN ON THE AGEN- 11 DA IN GHANA?

FLUCTUATING FORTUNES: BUHARI AND NIGERIA’S ECONOMY 18

DISMANTLING AUTOCRACY: GAM- BIA’S TRANSITION TO DEMOCRACY 23

SIERRA LEONE’S NEW DIRECTION? 31

3 EDITORIAL New Leaders, New Directions? n recent elections across West Africa opposition mantras of change have Icountries focused on in this edition of West Africa Insight - Nigeria, Ghana, Thesucceeded Gambia, Sierra in convincing Leone and voters Liberia to oust- have incumbent all seen an governments. opposition presiden The five- -

tial candidate emerge victorious since 2015. But faced with significant chal Inlenges Nigeria, and wherehigh expectations President Muhammadu how are they Buharidoing in will office? soon stand for re-election, Cheta Nwanze provides an assessment of his government’s economic performance. Arguing that whilst Buhari was dealt a “bad hand” when he as-

in fact has exacerbated some of the economic challenges further. sumed office in 2015, his approach has done little to improve the situation and

dictatorship of Yahya Jammeh was unexpected and thrust the little-known Ad- In The Gambia the removal from office, after more than two decades, of the of opposition groups, has taken steps to reform the system of government but asama Ismaila Barrow Ceesay into the notes country’s it hasn’t highest all been office. plain Barrow, sailing, who with headed internal a coalition politics, accusations of corruption and pressing challenges, such as youth unemployment, styming progress.

In Ghana, Wunpini Mohammed looks at how marginalised women are being included in the New Patriotic Party’s dispensation. She argues that symbolic appointments of women to ministerial positions masks a lack of government action when it comes to supporting women who hail from the country’s poor- er northern regions.

In the last year incumbent presidents in Sierra Leone and Liberia respected term limits to stand aside, but watched their parties lose the subsequent election. In Liberia that brought George Weah, a footballer turned politician to - ministration will be able to deliver on key election pledges. office. Ibrahim Al-bakri Nyei looks at whether the early signs are that his ad

madeIn Sierra on keyLeone, electoral where promises President - tackling Bio has corruptionbeen in office and forfree only education six months, - and askAndrew whether Lavali this and government Hassan Kallon can do offer more some to push initial ahead reflections with much on progress needed national political reconciliation.

4 GEORGE WEAH: A NEW DIRECTION FOR TACKLING POVERTY IN LIBERIA

Ibrahim Al-bakri Nyei

5 GEORGE WEAH: A NEW DIRECTION FOR TACKLING POVERTY IN LIBERIA? n January 2018, former FIFA world footballer of the year George Weah was sworn in as President and sought the backing of several other smaller I parties.(CDC) formed A notable a coalition political with ally, coalitiontwo other member parties was inaugurated at the National Stadium - a place and subsequent running mate was Jewel How- of symbolicof Liberia. importance For the first for time, Weah Liberia’s given hispresident sport- ard Taylor, leader of the National Patriotic Party; ing background - and a venue that allowed thou- a party set up by former rebel leader and Presi- sands of Liberians, from all walks of life, to witness dent, Charles Taylor, to whom she was married. Her strong support base in Bong County, com- elected president since 1944. bined well with Weah’s own popularity in the the first handover of power by a sitting leader to an - of voting. In a run-off, delayed by an unsuccessful - courtcountry, challenge placed themin which ahead Weah’s after theopponent first round and Weah’s journey to the country’s highest office be the outgoing vice-president, Joseph Boakai chal- round,gan with he his was first eventually tilt at the defeatedpresidency by in Ellen 2005. John De- son-Sirleafspite leading in thea run-off. other 21A similar candidates scenario after unfolded the first was elected with 61.5% of the vote. in 2011 when Weah, having teamed up with former lenged the validity of the first round of voting, he UN diplomat Winston Tubman, again reached the While the transition was seamless, the prevailing second round of voting. This time he boycotted the situation in the country posed challenges for a run-off alleging fraud and Johnson-Sirleaf swept to new government shouldering high expectations. Liberia was on the brink of economic recession Weah vied for a seat in the legislature in 2014. He wasa second overwhelmingly term in office. elected Undaunted the Senator by the setbacks,of Mont- serrado County, winning 78% of the vote. The years occasioned by a faltering currency, inflation and a in the Senate were crucial; allowing him to gain po- deep budget deficit. At the end of 2017 the World litical and governmental experiences which he had theBank Liberian noted GDPdollar growth depreciating had dropped as exports to 2.1% de- been widely criticised for lacking in previous pres- clinedand inflation and capital had increasedwas moved to elsewhere.12.5%; a result Crucial of idential bids. By the time of his election in 2017, also, was the ongoing withdrawal of the United Weah had earned a master’s degree and apprecia- ble political experience both in Liberia and in the it has supported the government in carrying out West African region - he represented Liberia at the aNations number Mission of reforms in Liberia in security, (UNMIL). whilst Since playing 2003 an ECOWAS parliament. important part in maintaining the peace. Further- more, it was estimated that the mission injected about a quarter of a billion dollars to the local

In 2017, Weah’s Coalition for Democratic Change 6 economy annually. The departure of UNMIL, coupled with the prevailing socio-economic challenges, meant the new government was quickly faced with the twin challenges of ensuring security whilst rein- vigorating an economy in decline.

PRO-POOR PRESIDENT?

eah, who grew up in Gibraltar coming sustainability and having no links to a munity, an extremely impoverished broader development plan. Warea of Monrovia was able, during the election campaign, to connect better with the In July 2018 the government announced the daily experiences of poverty and hardship fac- - ing many Liberians. This was particularly true opment agenda outlining the government’s for Liberia’s youth who constitute an estimat- planadoption for theof a country.comprehensive The Pro-Poor five-year Agenda devel

address in January 2018, Weah announced his not mark a fundamental ideological shift from intentioned 64% of “to the construct population. the During greatest his machinery inaugural thefor Developmentpolicies pursued and Prosperityby Ellen (PAPD)Johnson-Sir does- of pro-poor governance in the history of this leaf’s administration. In fact, in his opening

machinery were interventions to pay the public Weah describes it as “the second in the series examinationcountry”. The fees first of productshigh school of students, this pro-poor hire ofstatement plans leading in the towards PAPD document, the goals Presidentof Vision new teachers in public schools, construct a mili- - tary hospital for the army, procure medical sup- mulgated by the Government and people of Li- plies for the main public hospital and maintain beria2030”. under Vision President 2030 was Johnson-Sirleaf a national vision which pro rural roads. However, these short-term moves envisioned Liberia becoming a middle income were criticised by political opponents for lack-

economy by 2030.

7 economic development and job creation, sus- tainingThe PAPD peace, has fourimproved main pillarstransparency centred in around; governance and greater citizen engagement in policy- making. It has ambitious targets. It seeks to lift PAPD “one million Liberians out of absolute poverty over the next six years... through sustained and inclusive growth driven by scaled-up invest- Pro-Poor Agenda for Development and Prosperity ments in agriculture, in infrastructure, and in behuman easy. resource The government development”. estimates But findingthat US$6 the finance to support its implementation will not with 42% of this capital to be raised domestical- lybillion and the will remaining be needed 58% over to bethe sourced next five from years, development partners and through loans.

A cocktail of fundraising measures are currently being put in place to raise the required capital. measures adopted to reduce recurrent expendi- The most radical of which are the fiscal austerity- alsoture setthat to will impact see thecivil perks servants of public whose office salaries re duced significantly. The austerity measures are depending on their income bracket. Tax reforms have alsobeen been reduced promised by between with the 3.5% aim of and improv 10%- cost-cutting and tax raising measures, recurrent expenditureing domestic still revenue comprised collection. 90% Despite of Liberia’s these 2018-2019 budget. President Weah’s 5 year Develop- The government has also been keen to promote ment Agenda has 4 pillars: itself as open for business to foreign investors. In one measure aimed at attracting private sector investment the government announced Economic Development and major import tariff reductions of between 40- 1 Job Creation 80% for over 2,000 commodities. Short-term capital is also being sought. In March 2018 two Sustaining Peace loan agreements were signed - one with Asian 2 company, Eton Finance Ltd, and the other with Improved Transparency in 3 Governance almost US$1 billion. These deals were criticised byBurkinabe Liberian construction think-tank the firm Center EBOMAF for Policy- totalling Ac- Greater Citizen Engagement tion and Research for lacking economic viability 4 in Policy-making and the quality assurance standards required for such a significant investment.

8 President Weah promised a new beginning in the fight against corruption, however some of his own officials are already facing allegations of corruption

Undeterred, in September the government an- While these early efforts are laudable, Weah’s nounced a resource swap with the China Road and efforts to tackle corruption will be measured on - ing Liberian resources up to a value of US$2.5 bil- - some of whom, are already facing media allega- lion;Bridge money Corporation to be paid that to the will government see the firm of extractLiberia tionshow these of accumulating values are applied wealth toillegally his own and officials evad- ing the asset declaration as required by law - and to his commitment to strengthening anti-cor- theover Weah a period regime of five with years. the Traditional European Uniondevelopment having ruption and public integrity bodies. An early lit- promisedpartners have €27 alsomillion reaffirmed in direct their budget commitment support for to mus test of the appetite and capacity for tackling the 2018-19 budget and France providing €10 mil- corruption will be how the Weah administration lion for infrastructure development. proceeds with an investigation launched in Sep- tember 2018 to ascertain the whereabouts of a shipment of Liberian dollars worth US$104 mil- TRUTH AND JUSTICE lion that were ordered by the Central Bank from printers but have since vanished from Liberia’s resident Weah promised a new beginning in ports. Initial efforts to blame the outgoing ad- - ministration seem to have been contradicted by Pmer President Ellen Johnson-Sirleaf conceded port records that suggest that containers were the fight against corruption; a fight that for cleared after Weah took over in February and has commissioned a number of investigations - to March 2018. An investigation has been launched beshe conducted was losing by before specially leaving constituted office. To committeesthat end he but calls for an independent body to conduct it - into previous concessions contracts. Audit and in- have been hampered by the sweeping cuts to vestigative reports point to corrupt practices at the the Governance Commission, Liberia Extractive National Oil Company, previously headed by Sir- Industries Transparency Initiative and the Fi- leaf’s son. A report by Global Witness concerning nancial Intelligence Unit in the 2018/19 budget allegations of bribery in the signing of an oil deal and the side-lining of the Liberia Anti-Corruption led to further investigation by a special presidential a president keen on stamping out corruption. In Commission (LACC). These are not the actions of thecommittee money paidwhich, to inthem its finalas signature report, recommendedfees. should be directed towards the General Auditing that the officials implicated be forced to pay back Commissionfact more support, and the both LACC financial if Weah andis to legislative, deliver on

9 his promise to stymie corruption in Liberia. ignoring the calls for a war crimes court; it’s just that we want to focus on the things that matter But balancing the pursuit of impartial accountabil- most to the Liberian people right now”. Fahngon - went on to express his view that the TRC was “not cuses on building “a stable, resilient, and inclusive at the top of the list [of people’s concerns] right nationity with embracing the second our objective triple heritage of the PAPD, and anchoredwhich fo now”. on our identity as Africans”, will not be easy. The country’s Truth and Reconciliation Commission Faced with mounting socio-economic challenges - and heightened demands for justice, Weah’s ad- olations and recommended senior politicians for ministrations honeymoon period is quickly com- prosecutions.(TRC) report ofLess 2009 than documented one year into a his series adminis of vi- ing to an end as the anniversary of one year in of- tration Weah is already burdened by the ghosts of this injustice which the previous government was lost shipment of dollars could be a sign of things seen to have deliberately evaded. tofice come approaches. as Liberians Protests begin by to citizens question angry the atcred the- ibility of his policies to tackle unemployment, War victims and advocacy groups such as the Gene- facilitate economic growth and clamp down on va-based Civitas Maxima and its local counterparts corruption. Weah’s political survival, and to an the Global Justice and Research Project and the Co- extent the stability and progress of the Liberian alition for Justice in Liberia have heightened the de- state, will be shaped by the direction he follows to bate for the establishment of a war and economic tackle unemployment, end impunity and improve - to establish a war crimes court in line with the rec- rection he chooses is left with the country’s poor ommendationscrimes court. Weah’s of the CDCTRC, had but previouslya recent comment pledged whoseaccountability. life he has The committed final verdict to transforming on whatever and di by deputy information minister, Eugene Fahngon, who will vote him out, just as they voted him in, suggests the issue is far from settled. “We are not should he fail to do so. FURTHER READING

Weah, George. 2018. ‘Inaugural Presidential Address’, Government of Liberia Sieh, Rodney & Clarke, Prue. 2018. ‘Shipping containers carrying $104 million in bank notes have gone missing in Liberia’, Quartz Africa

Front Page Africa. 2018. ‘Liberia Protest for War Crimes Court ahead of Weah UN Visit’ Harmon, William. 2018. ‘Orator Tweah Champions CDC’s Pro-Poor Agenda’, Liberian Observer

10 NANA AKUFO - ADDO: PUTTING MARGINALISED WOMEN ON THE AGENDA IN GHANA?

Wunpini Fatimata Mohammed

11 NANA AKUFO-ADDO: PUTTING MARGINALISED WOMEN ON THE AGENDA IN GHANA? hana’s 2010 Population and Housing Census, compiled and tabulated by the Ghana Statisti- Gcal Service, reveals an important division that continues to shape the country’s development direction. The data demonstrates that there is a wide educational, economic and developmental gap between the Northern and Southern regions of Ghana. While the national literacy rate is 74% the literacy

most marginalised group constituting 57% of the il- literaterate of the regional Northern population. Region is In 37%. terms Women of education are the- al access, the national average on people who have never attended school is 28% while 67% of the Northern Region’s population have never attended school. Here, women are at the bottom once again. 57% have never attended school. According to a 2016 UNICEF report, the Northern Region is home to “the highest number of poor people in Ghana”.

This north-south divide has existed since independence, but consecutive Ghanaian governments have done little to address poverty, low literacy and education levels and malnutrition in a more equitable way. These challenges have germinated on the back of inaction. The gap between innovative thinking mance. The delay in feeding grants for students in and government approaches has further entrenched northern Ghanaian public high schools alongside inequality in the country. So too has a lack of avail- a lack of educational resources, human resources able resources. For example, high school education and facilities means they consistently lag behind in northern Ghana, which was subsidised until free in the standardised West African Senior School high school was recently introduced by the current Akufo-Addo government, was grossly underfund- ed, affecting school attendance and student perfor Certificate Examination. 12 In communities that are educationally and economically marginalised, women are usually the hardest hit. Many northern Ghanaian women, who are the backbone of the unpaid labor economy, are perpetu- ally trapped in a cycle of poverty due to their limited access to transformative resources. Patriarchal cultural institutions have worked in tandem with governmental and national institutional incompetence

thisto marginalise class of citizens. women in the region. Despite the important economic roles they play not much has been done by the government or non-governmental organisations (NGOs) to protect and improve the lives of

Young women in Gha- na engage in kayayo (carrying the load of shoppers in big markets) as a means of sustenance.

PROMISING PROGRESS

ana Akufo-Addo was elected president of government would address this phenomenon by Ncontest he defeated incumbent John Mahama improvingbig markets). the According economy to in the the manifesto, home districts the NPP of Ghana in December 2016. In a closely fought- the young women in partnership with key stakeholders such as NGOs and the private sector. Pro- of the National Democratic Congress (NDC), win viding “alternate life skills, training and capital” ning almost 54% of the vote. During the campaign to improve the lives of these young women. forthe Newwomen. Patriotic Although Party the (NPP), Northern for which Region he was is notthe theflagbearer, NPP’s stronghold, committed the to improvingparty has historic opportunities ties to Akufo-Addo has been internationally commend- - ed for his efforts to support women’s empower- dition. The NPP manifesto promised to restructure ment. He was nominated by the African Union’s the Livelihoodregion through Empowerment its Danquah-Busia-Dombo Against Poverty Protra- chairperson as “African Union Gender Champion” - for 2017 for his work in promoting women’s in- ginalised people are integrated into the economy by volvement in leadership and decision-making. providinggramme (LEAP) them withto ensure training that opportunities economically inmar in- - come generating activities. The manifesto indicated lic appointments women was nearly achieved in that female-headed households were to be identi- The NPP manifesto promise to make 30% of pub 27% of ministerial appointees women. While this programme. recognitionthe president’s is positive, first year; further falling work just needs short towith be fied and targeted as key beneficiaries of the LEAP done to address the way patriarchal institutions, Another relevant NPP campaign promise was a supported by cultural and national systems, commitment to address the rural-urban migration maintain the status quo to marginalise women in of young women from the north to the south who Ghana. engage in kayayo (carrying the load of shoppers in

13 A LACK OF LEADERSHIP

he Ministry of Gender, Children and Social Protection, previously the Ministry of Wom- Ten and Children’s Affairs, was established in 2001. Although the ministry was established to address issues faced by marginalised groups in the country, projects implemented by the ministry have primarily been women-centered while paying little attention to groups marginalised on the basis of their sexuality, disability or ethnicity. However, the Akufo-Addo led NPP government sent a signal that it was not taking these groups seriously, when the women’s organiser for the party’s 2016 election

the ministry, despite an unproven track record. Women’scampaign, politicalOtiko Afisa representation Djaba, was appointed in and of to itselfhead is not always cause for celebration and a marker of progress. In feminist discourses, there are con- versations on the ways in which women have been

systems to present the illusion of progress and gen- Otiko Afisa Djaba derpositioned empowerment. as token figureheads in African political Declined offer as Ghana’s Ambassador to Italy and retired from active politics in 2018 Ghanaian feminists like Akosua Adomako Ampofo,

Agyemang Asante and Sylvia Bawa have lamented theAdwoa lack Osei-Tutu,of competence Hikmat and Baba knowledge Dua, Nana about Ama the complexities and dynamics of oppression in the

January 2017 to August 2018. They believe this lack ofcountry competence held by has Otiko been Afisa detrimental Djaba, ministerto the welfare from - ture, she was re-assigned as Ghana’s ambassador toof disenfranchisedItaly but declined groups the offer in Ghana. and announced Djaba’s depar her retirement from active politics, has not improved - ba, was recently quoted as saying “I like to bring boysthings. together; Cynthia Morrison,so the men, appointed we are togoing replace to work Dja together and make sure that you get your due, not to separate you even though you are stronger than us, we will make it work”. Morrison has publicly denounced feminism while pledging to centre men

with the goals and mandate of the ministry. A minis- Cynthia Morrison in her work, an approach which appears in conflict try that has struggled to make NPP manifesto prom- Replaced Djaba as Head of the Ministry of ises towards northern women a reality after almost Gender, Children and Social Protection.

two years in office.

14 A LEAP FORWARD?

he LEAP programme, addressed in the campaign manifesto of the current government as in need Tof improvement, aims to reduce poverty and improve the lives of women, the elderly, and peo- - ple living with disabilities. It provides cash to identified disenfranchised groups to support their- households. As of April 2018, the programme covered all districts in the country with 213,044 ben eficiary households, about 937,904 individuals. With a one-member household, two-member house Althoughhold, three-member these cash householdpayments mayand fourbe useful or more-member for supporting household households, receiving particularly GHc64 (US$13),in marginalised GHc76 (US$16), GHc88 (US$18) and GHc106 (US$22) in cash transfers respectively, on a bi-monthly basis. poverty face by easing their access to quality healthcare, education and by providing affordable access tocommunities, social amenities. it is important to find more sustainable solutions to the problems that people living in

To improve the LEAP programme, the Akufo-Addo led government promised to restructure the programme to identify female-headed households, allowing more marginalised women to benefit To improve the LEAP programme, the Akufo-Addo led government promised to restructure the programme to identify female-headed households, al-

launch of the Ghana Gender Statistics Assessment LEAP covered all the dis- lowing more marginalised women to benefit. The Report in June 2018 contains data that, if used ef- tricts in Ghana, with fectively, will improve the targeting of female-head- 213,044 ed households. But it is not yet clear whether the households and in- ministry will do so. In April 2018, it organised sen- 937,904 sitisation workshops in Northern, Upper East and dividuals benefitting from Cash Upper West regions - the regions with high poverty payments ranging from and inequality levels - to educate Metropolitan, Mu- - GHc64 (US$13) to GHc106 (US$22) dinating directors on the key roles they can play to depending on number of people ensurenicipal andLEAP’s District growth chief and executives sustainability. and their However coor in the household limited progress has been made on expanding the -

genderscope of ministry beneficiaries began andemergency improving LEAP the payments punctu ality of payments. Following flooding in 2017, the

15 to 1,142 people who were affected in Tamale Me- tropolis and Sagnarigu and Nanumba North munici- CARRYING THE WEIGHT palities; all in the Northern Region. It was estimated OF EXPECTATION these emergency LEAP payments. But it remains nother key tenet of the NPP manifesto that that 2,188 people would benefit nationwide from targeted women was its promise to ad- how much they were paid. Adress the rural-urban migration of young unclear how the flooding victims were selected or women to engage in kayayo. Women engaged in The extent to which the government intends to wid- kayayo can make twice the daily national mini- en the reach of the programme and what criteria it will use to determine eligibility has not been out- of homelessness among these disenfranchised womenmum wage - many of GHc8.80 sleep in markets ($2). However, and on thehigh streets rates woman in the Zabzugu district of the Northern - puts them at high risk of physical and sexual lined. Dangana, an 87-year-old visually impaired- - gramme. ba initiated programmes in Accra and Kumasi to Region is one of many yet to benefit from the pro addressabuse. Although the needs former of young minister, migrant Otiko women Afisa Dja by - providing free health insurance to about 2,000 ment. A few months ago, they said they were com- young women engaged in kayayo in the Ashanti ing“I have to register never benefitedus for the programme,from the [LEAP] but they cash never pay Region, a more fundamental rebalancing of eco- showed up. Recently, we were asked to take passport nomic opportunity between the regions is need- photos for the registration process and we went to ed to eradicate the kayayo phenomenon. do the registration. They told us to tell them what we were going to use the money for. I told them to write down livestock so that I can use it to buy them and rear. We registered this year…. but all they do is write our names and take photos. They have not told us how much they will give us. Others have already been paid. Those who registered earlier have began receiving payments. Since this government came into power my life has not changed. I don’t sell anything, I don’t have a source of livelihood. But we are waiting to see if we will get something since they took down our names.” Women engaged in kayayo can make twice paymentAlthough havemany fallen women through have thebenefited cracks. fromIn addition LEAP, the daily national mini- many more, like Dangana, who qualify for the cash for targeting, delays in LEAP payments are caused mum wage of GHc8.80 to limited financial resources and poor mechanisms- ($2). tive processes. An academic study also raised ques- tionsby bureaucratic about whether red tape the amountand inefficient being disbursed administra is In an attempt to understand the issues affecting - cern that was shared by UN’s Special Rapporteur on met with the leadership of these groups as part Extremesufficient Poverty to have and a transformative Human Rights, impact. Philip Alston, A con many young women engaged in kayayo, Djaba during a recent visit to the country. Not only was he the phenomenon. It was her belief that govern- mentof the programmesprocess to find such sustainable as the Planting ways to for address Food last the eight week cycle, but that many qualifying and Jobs programme and the 1 village 1 dam; 1 peopleconcerned continue that the to cashmiss paymentout of the was programme. insufficient to district 1 factory would be useful for curbing the rural-urban migration of young women. The NPP

16 focuses on constructing dams and factories across marginalised communities in the three regions Ghana’sflagship 1212 village districts 1 dam; to facilitate1 district local1 factory production, project offrom the the north University to work for alongside Development communities Studies to boost the local economy and create rural jobs. How- identify problems and assist in developing solu- ever, many villages and districts in the Northern tions, can be invaluable to government in devel- Region have yet to see the promised dams or fac- oping policies that address persistent inequality. tories. While the Ministry of Gender, Children and In terms of policy development, a special alloca- Social Protection has taken steps to engage kayayo tion of funds from the national budget to address communities in Accra and Kumasi, it has so far done inequality in northern Ghana, would be a clear little to engage with opinion leaders, traditional commitment to redressing the balance. Further, leaders and women in the Northern, Upper East and the government should focus on equality when - tackling issues of poverty nationwide and on tainable solutions. tracking the commitments it makes. Although Upper West regions in an effort to find more sus CHANGING THE SYSTEM the gap between the north and the south, the cur- these recommendations can significantly close he government can work more effectively rent government, like previous administrations, towards addressing inequality and margin- is unlikely to address this systemic problem, pre- alisation by taking the Ministry of Gender, ferring instead to focus predominantly on party T rather than national interests. Children and Social Protection more seriously. Ap- pointees for the ministry should have the requisite knowledge, skills and experience. Working close- A systemic approach to social change rather ly with institutions such as the Centre for Gender than an individualised, interpersonal approach Studies and Advocacy at the University of Ghana, to addressing oppression and marginalisation can better equip the ministry with the knowledge is needed in Ghana to facilitate the long-term to push for change. improvement of the lives of women. While programmes such as LEAP may alleviate poverty at Ensuring that funds raised for tackling poverty are an individual level, examining marginalisation spent on projects and initiatives that work closely from a holistic and systemic approach is needed with local communities to devise local solutions if issues of inequality are to be fully addressed. In to the problems they face is vital. A close, and col- Ghana a critical look at the way institutions like laborative, working relationship with marginalised the courts, the education system and the econo- communities means that they are not just agentive my work in tandem with oppressive patriarchal actors in improving their own lives but that they systems to keep women marginalised would be a are highly invested in the success of the solutions good starting point. Economic empowerment for women is important but that must happen along- women groups, community opinion leaders and side a change in the role for marginalised actors, traditionalimplemented authorities to improve can their bridge lives. the Dialogue growing with gap particularly women, in the function of the state, if between the north and south. The Third Trimester that individual empowerment is to have transfor- Field Practical Programme, which posts students mative generational impacts.

FURTHER READING

Alston, P. 2018. ‘Statement on Visit to Ghana, by Professor Philip Alston, United Nations Special Rapporteur on

extreme poverty and human rights’. United Nations Human Rights Office of the High Commissioner. - Maxwell, S. 2016. ‘Northern Ghana ‘poor’ despite NGOs presence’. Deutsche Welle Peprah, P., Kyiyaga, E. M., Afful, H., Abalo, E. M. & Agyemang-Duah, W. 2017. ‘Does the Ghanaian livelihood empow erment against poverty programme lead to an increase in household productive livelihood assets? Analysing the Ashanti scenario’. Cogent Social Sciences. Vol 3 17 FLUCTUATING FORTUNES: BUHARI AND NIGERIA’S ECONOMY

Cheta Nwanze

18 FLUCTUATING FORTUNES: BUHARI AND NIGERIA’S ECONOMY resident Muhammadu Buhari was sworn in as the President of Nigeria on 29 May 2015, the PARTIAL PROGRESS P he government deserves credit for its time- take over of power from an opposition leader via ly bail out of states in the country begin- first person in Nigeria’s history to complete a- T - - the ballot box. On assumption of office, Buhari iden cus on; the war against corruption, insecurity and ministration.ning in HadJuly 2015.this not Over been ₦1.75 done, trillion there ($4.89would tified three areas that his administration would fo the economy. With presidential elections scheduled havebillion) been has a been near provided collapse underof most the of current the states ad for February 2019, Buhari’s record has come un- in the country. Unfortunately, the use of the bail der increasing scrutiny but how has he fared in ad- out funds was not properly monitored, and many dressing the area that arguably has the biggest im- states are right back to where they were at the pact on the everyday reality of ordinary Nigerians, beginning of the life of the Buhari administration; bankrupt and unable to meet their basic needs. the economy? - was dealt a bad hand. The outgoing regime of the The All Progressive Congress (APC) government quarterInitiatives of such2017, as which the ₦100 were billion spent on(US$279 the recon mil- at a low point with militant attacks on the up. But structionlion) Sukuk and bond rehabilitation proceeds, of issued 25 key in roads the third and People’s Democratic Party left crude oil production President Buhari’s announcement that he was can- rail projects, have helped in narrowing the in- celling the Presidential Amnesty Programme only made things worse. With the Excess Crude Account 2017 for capital expenditure from the 2016 bud- virtually empty at US$2 billion, the APC government frastructure deficit. ₦1.2 trillion was released in - which peaked at over 8% in 2011, had slowed to get, with a further ₦1.5 trillion outlayed this year, had a very thin buffer for manoeuvre. GDP growth 5.4% at the start of 2015. The economy slumped hasfrom enabled the 2017 the budget, resumption making of a worktotal ofon ₦2.7 several tril further, going into recession in August 2016, for lion (US$9 billion) in two years. This investment the Okene Bypass and the Kaduna Eastern By- pass.stalled, but much needed, road projects such as the first time in more than two decades, and only climbing out of it in September 2017. GDP growth of 2018 according to the National Bureau of Statis- The Buhari administration also took the bold tics.remains weak, averaging just 1.73% in the first half

19 - 2016 ₦145 rolstep subsidy of increasing bills whichpetrol wereprices draining by 66.7% more from than ₦87 to ₦145 per litre in May 2016. That cut down pet purse. Unfortunately, this good step has since been rolled₦1 trillion back. ($2.79 Since billion)Nigeria perstill year imports from the the bulk public of priced in US dollars, the costs change with changes inits globalrefined oil petrol prices. and With the rising landing global costs oil of prices petrol the is administration has sought to keep the cost of pet- what many Nigerians see as one of their only ben- rol constant at ₦145 per litre. Fearing a backlash if now making up the difference, estimated at 25% perefits litre from by the a SBM government Intelligence is reporttaken away,in February, they are in an effective return to subsidy. Regrettably, the price modulation introduced by the Minister of State for Petroleum Resources, Ibe Kachikwu, never took place. Where incremental increases in the prices of petrol would have paid off in helping wean Nigeri- ans off unsustainable cheap petrol, the next administration will have no choice but to hike up prices again or foot a hefty bill for subsides. ₦87 2016

CONTROLLING CURRENCY hilst the government inherited a set of challenges, they took missteps that ac- Wcentuated the problems. For example, rather than take the smart economic choice and - alistic peg against the US dollar, the Central Bank float the Naira, or at least devalue it to a more re known hostility to the idea, and chose to imple- mentof Nigeria demand (CBN) control took itsmeasures. cue from These the President’s measures had the unintended effect of keeping foreign investors on the sidelines as many were worried about their ability to repatriate their earnings. Foreign airlines - Iberia, Emirates and Lufthansa - who had more than US$600 million of foreign exchange trapped in Nigeria for months served as cautionary tale, and ensured that many investors stayed away.

A second unintended consequence of the CBN’s capital control measures was the creation of mul- - portunities for arbitrage and had the effect of as- phyxiatingtiple artificial productive exchange businesses. rates. This A story created which op

20 A Premium Times report in April 2018 labelled the Anchor Borrowers Programme, set up to provide loans to farmers at low interest rates, ‘a farce’. made the rounds among members of the business community at the time about an electronics im- GREASING THE WHEELS porter who got the opportunity of getting US dol- he drop in Nigeria’s crude oil production, and global crude oil prices at the same time, illustrates this. Rather than using the foreign cur- was a key factor that pushed the country rencylars at to ₦191 continue through his importa politically business, connected he simply friend ex- T into recession. The rebound in both indices has changed his naira for dollars at that rate, then took supported the economic recovery. Crude oil prices and production volumes could hit US$50 per dollar. He did this round-tripping a number of billion before the end of 2018. However, the gov- the dollars and sold on the black market at ₦400 - ernment’s failure to get the Petroleum Industry ness suffered. Although categories of industry, such times, making a healthy profit while his main busi investment in the sector. President Buhari had control measures in late 2015 and early 2016, they hingedGovernance his refusal Bill passed on the willprovision stifle ofmuch the Billneeded per- as palm oil producers, benefited from the capital were, on the whole, counterproductive. Belatedly, mitting the Petroleum Regulatory Commission to reason prevailed, and foreign investors have since retain as much as 10% of the revenue generated, believing that it could affect the Federal Alloca- of the naira that has brought the number of parallel tions Account Committee. The President also returned with the introduction of a ‘managed float’ rates down to three. claimed that there were legislative drafting concerns which, if he assented to the Bill in the form of the Attorney General of the Federation have gone in its interpretation. However, the Presidency has The way and manner which both the CBN and Office after MTN Nigeria and the banks involved in the re- madepresented, no efforts would to createdialogue ambiguity with the National and conflict As- patriation of funds amounting to US$8.1 billion and sembly and with the next general elections loom- so called back taxes of US$2 billion has given inves- ing, ongoing politicking means the Bill is unlikely tors something else to think about. Though the CBN to be passed during this administration. A missed has since backtracked by announcing that talks are opportunity. ongoing, the damage has been done. MTN has put on hold its plans to list on the Nigerian Stock Ex- change in what would have been one of the biggest a major tenant of Buhari’s administration with listing in recent times. Diversifying the economy away from oil has been

21 agriculture seen as a key sector, but little has been ery naira earned is spent on keeping the govern- done despite a lot of chest thumping. A Premium ment running. Times report in April 2018 labelled the Anchor Bor- rowers Programme, set up to provide loans to farmers at low interest rates, ‘a farce’. The big challenge 2017, it remains fragile and the country is un- for agriculture is linked to high levels of insecurity likelyWhile toGDP hit movedthe 2.7% back it attained into positive in 2015 territory anytime in soon. A recent World Bank report stepped down Nigeria still suffers from too many post-harvest growth projections to 1.9% for 2018 on the back losses;across thethe countrylack of power and insufficient meaning that infrastructure. large scale of slowing oil production and falling agricultural storage remains a distant dream. between herders and farmers in the Middle Belt Arguably even more pertinent than petroleum is Ni- ofoutput. the country. The latter With because the continued of the ongoing growth conflict of the geria’s energy crisis. Electricity tariffs need to go up country’s population this is a concern. Even more to prevent the entire privatisation scheme from col- worrisome is the growth remaining poor despite lapsing. Numerous meetings with distribution com- crude oil trading above US$80 and production panies over tariffs have not led to an agreement or volumes relatively stable. As the elections ap- greater clarity. Some electricity distribution compa- proach, there will be less attention paid to gov- ny owners have pointedly asked the government to ernance and more to politics, so even weaker growth is to be expected. - take the companies back. The ₦701 billion (US$1.95- placementbillion) payment in sight. assurance Factors on scheme which for the gas Multi suppli Year ers is billed to end in December 2018 with no re naira-dollar exchange rate, have changed drastical- ly.Tariff Order were based, such as inflation and the LOOKING FORWARD

review of key economic metrics highlights A remain quite high. About a third of the government’sthe revenues ongoing challenges.are spent on Debt debt service servicing. ratios In- terest payments accounted for 61% of government revenues in 2016 and 71.9% in 2017 according to the International Monetary Fund. Tax revenues in

the initial buzz around the Voluntary Assets and In- the country have not moved significantly. Despite - come Declaration Scheme introduced by previous Recurrentminister of expenditure finance Kemi remains Adeosun, the only elephant 214 Nigeri in the room.ans pay 2017 more had than recurrent ₦20 million expenditure (US$56,000) at 68.27%, in tax. while 2018 is at 68.50%. Simply put, 68 kobo of ev- FURTHER READING

Nwanze, Cheta. 2017. ‘Buharinomics ushers a bleak Nigeria outlook’, Financial Nigeria Obikili,Fawehinmi, Nonso. Faye. 2018. 2018. ‘The ‘MTN gravity and ofthe the multibillion-dollar Nigerian situation’, perils The ofGuardian Nigeria’s regulatory minefield’, Quartz Africa

22 DISMANTLING AUTOCRACY: GAMBIA’S TRANSITION TO DEMOCRACY

Ismaila Ceesay

23 DISMANTLING AUTOCRACY: GAMBIA’S TRANSITION TO DEMOCRACY - back to the polls because I want to make sure every rienced a political earthquake when the Gambian votes under an electoral commission that On 1 December 2016, The Gambia expe is impartial, independent, neutral and free from for- announced the victory of an unassuming busi- nessman,Independent Adama Barrow, Electoral over Commission the incumbent (IEC) strongman Yahya Jammeh. Jammeh, who was a Thiseign influence.”was in response to an IEC press release on 5 brutal and eccentric dictator, had promised to rule the small West African nation for a billion years. However, the election victory abruptly ended Jammeh’s 22 years of dominance, ushering a new era of hope and democracy. “In the same way that I accept- After initially calling president-elect Barrow ed the results faithfully believing to concede defeat and promising to peacefully that the Independent Electoral transfer power, Yaya Jammeh, to the surprise of Commission was independent both Gambians and the international community, announced seven days later that he was rejecting and honest and reliable, I hereby the election result in its totality. He branded the reject the results in totality. I will results fraudulent and characterised by unaccept- not accept the results based on able errors on the part of the electoral authorities, what has happened. declared them null and void and refused to step down. Promising to hold fresh elections. Jammeh Yahya Jammeh announced on national television that: President of Gambia (1996–2017)

“in the same way that I accepted the results faithfully believing that the Independent Electoral - Commission was independent and honest and reliable, I hereby reject the results in totality. I beenDecember inadvertently that confirmed transposed. they had However discovered the acer- will not accept the results based on what has rors in the election result totals where figures had- happened. This is the most dubious election we consequential as Adama Barrow and the coalition ever had in the history of this country. We will go wouldcounting have errors, still been as identified awarded byvictory, the IEC, albeit were with in a

24 slimmer margin than initially announced. Jammeh’s rejection of the election results and refusal to step down almost plunged the country into turmoil, sparking a political impasse that last- ed for almost six weeks. Eventually under regional and international diplomatic pressure and with the threat of military intervention by the Economic

demandsCommunity included of West an African amnesty States deal (ECOWAS),to avoid facing the chargesdefeated of Jammeh human negotiated rights abuses, his exit the from right office. to travel His to and from The Gambia and continued recognition of his political party. What exactly, if anything, was agreed remains unclear.

On 21 January 2017 Jammeh waved to his supporters as he boarded his private jet and left the country, Jammeh’s rejection of the election results al- together with his family, for Equatorial Guinea. The most plunged the Gambia into turmoil. legacy he left behind was one of a collapsed economy, weak institutions and a nation divided along ethno-political lines.

THE COALITION: A HOUSE DIVIDED

n 18 February amidst a celebratory atmo- sphere Adama Barrow was, for the second Otime, sworn-in as president, this time on home soil, becoming The Gambia’s third president. His initial swearing in having taken place in The Gambia’s embassy in Senegal prior to Jammeh’s departure. The event, which coincided with the country’s 52nd independence anniversary, was attended by thousands of citizens and several African heads of states. Barrow told the gathered crowd that his victory was “a victory for democracy...a victory be- longing to all Gambians”.

Barrow was head of a coalition of seven polit- as the leader of his own political party, but as the ical parties plus one independent candidate. headBarrow of astood coalition in the of Decemberopposition 2016 groups. election, After failnot- ing in previous elections to present a united front the newly elected coalition government became seven political parties plus one independent candi- - date eventually agreed to work together and they ises in their coalition election manifesto that they - wouldapparent unite from “to the put onset. all differences Despite makingaside to prom put a transitional government in place that would initi- nationalelected Adama convention Barrow that from brought the Unitedtogether Democrat 490 par- ate constitutional, electoral, institutional, admin- tyic Partydelegates (UDP) from as theirall administrative presidential candidateregions of atthe a istrative and managerial reforms that would

country. Barrow won 308 votes. However, cracks in 25 make justice guide our action towards the common she declined - and replaced her with his ‘politi- good”, the coalition has struggled to contain diverse cal father’ and long-time opponent of Jammeh,

against Jammeh on four consecutive elections. political agendas in office. TheOusainou changes Darboe, not whoonly hadsaw unsuccessfully key coalition stoodpart- around how to contest the April 2017 Nation- ners like OJ Jallow of the People’s Progressive alThe Assembly first issue elections. that divided Two thecompeting coalition positions revolved emerged. One camp, headed by Lawyer Ousainou in former ministers of the previous administra- - tion.Party Momodou (PPP) leave Tangara government and Mambury but even Njie, brought both ing a prison sentence for violating the public order of whom had fallen out with Jammeh before he actDarboe at the the time leader of the of coalitionthe UDP party,building who process was serv and left power, were given the important portfolios of subsequent elections, wanted a tactical alliance approach. This involved political parties sponsoring candidates in constituencies based on their individ- Gainako,minister ofa leading foreign online affairs newspaper and finance in minister. The Gam - ual party’s perceived electoral strength. Where they clearly had the largest support base no other coa- may have come largely as a political stunt to save lition member would contest that particular seat. hisbia, poor argued performance that the “president’s by bringing cabinet in his ownreshuffle peo- Rather the coalition members would all come to- ple rather than affecting personnel change that gether to support and campaign for that candidate. could help him bring the reform that Gambians A different approach, spearheaded by the leader of were expecting”. In addition, political observ- - ers were quick to recall a promise the president forthe People’sthe coalition Democratic to back Organization candidates forwho Indepen would former Jammeh minister will be needed in the standdence asand independents. Socialism (PDOIS), After a Halifa fractious Sallah, debate argued the newmade government during his firstas the press coalition conference has more that than “no tactical alliance approach was opted for. enough manpower”. This has not been the only promise that President Barrow appears to have The elections took place on 6 April 2017 and the rowed back on. just short of a two-thirds majority but six times as Having promised to lead the coalition government UDP won 31 out of the 53 contested seats, falling for three years before stepping aside, an agreement set out in the memorandum of understand- themany direction as the second of the placed coalition party. but UDP widened dominance cracks in - the National Assembly increased its influence over or to the 2016 election, recent pronouncements bying the (MOU) president signed suggest by all coalitionthat he is membersnot willing pri to deathbetween knell. members. The coalition Barrow’s agreement decision stipulated to reshuffle that “allhis cabinetpresidential on 29 appointments June 2017 proved and removals to be the will final be year term. In an interview with a local newspa- done in consultation with coalition stakeholders”. per,honour The thisStandard, promise in August and will 2018, stay President for a full Barfive- However, according to a prominent minister and a row gave his strongest indication yet, “we are in key coalition partner, who was relieved of his po- a transition period. We have things that we need sition in the shake-up, this consultation never happened. just for the sake of holding elections… We have to to fix and I do not think we should hold elections - prise to many political observers in The Gambia, socomplete that we these will have processes credible first elections. and ensure I think there this is sawThe cabinetPresident reconfigurations, Barrow assert whichmore camecontrol as ofa surthe a level playing field before we organise elections executive by bringing in people whose loyalty he not important”. Although the coalition partners could rely on. He redeployed vice-president Fatou- is what is important. Three years or five years is OJ Jallow is of the view that “President Barrow and Barrow ally, to the foreign service - a position shouldare yet not to takebe allowed an official to govern position beyond on the the issue, mata Jallow Tambajang, a key coalition figurehead

26 An investigation uncovered that a sum of 33 Million dalasis ($750,000) was paid into the Fatoumata Bah Barrow Foun- dation, a philanthropic venture of the president’s wife

three year agreed period”, which ends in 2019. - Should President Barrow fail to honor the MOU and - step down after three years, the coalition, already in an investigation uncovered that a sum of 33 Mil disarray behind the scenes, will formally collapse. withoutlion dalasis its knowledge. ($750,000) An was internal paid into investigation the foun hasdations been account promised in but December the scandal 2017 has apparentlyprecipitat- ENTER THE ANONYMOUS ed an online and grassroots campaign - kodolay

DONORS activists. In assessing the Barrow government so - far,(where Madi is Jobarteh,the money) a leading - spearheaded human rightsby Gambian activ- alition, President Barrow continued to enjoy ists and political commentator argues that “the espite the political infighting within the co government is completely off-track...there is a

year termhigh approaches, approval ratings support during is fast his eroding first yeardue power and a lot of political patronage. President toin office.allegations However of corruption,as the halfway incompetence point of his andfive blatant lack of accountability, abuse of office and political indecisiveness. Having promised that the Barrow is not serious in fighting corruption and number one priority, President Barrow has failed to Inholding addition government to allegations officials of corruption,to account”. the Bar- fight against corruption would be his government’s row presidency has also been accused of incom- a commitment that all cabinet ministers were go- petence and indecisiveness due to the manner in Dingdeliver to be on forced that commitment to publicly declare in office. their After assets, making the which the government responded to the occupy presidency subsequently announced that asset dec- larations would not be released to the public. and environmental disasters in the Kombo coast- alWestfield areas caused protests, by industrial land disputes activities. in Busumbala The fatal confrontation between residents of Faraba, a vil- to lawmakers, in September 2017, by the president lage outside of the capital Banjul, and the Police The financial source of 57 pick-up trucks donated Gambian pilgrims during the 2018 Hajj programme the ability of the new government to ensure the wasand the“an 11 anonymous million dalasis donor” (US$250,000) according to he Barrow. gave to rightIntervention of ordinary Unit Gambians (PIU) raised to protest. further questions An indictment of his inexperience and potential corruptibility. In August 2018, a corruption scandal In 2018, the government awarded a contract to rocked the Fatoumata Bah Barrow Foundation - a Julakey Company to conduct sand mining oper- philanthropic venture of the president’s wife - after ations in Faraba. However, residents complained

27 that the contract had been awarded without con- sulting the local village council. When, on 18 June Barrow in January 2018, the plan seeks to re- 2018, a number of angry local residents took to the storeNational the ruleDevelopment of law, deepen Plan democracy,(NDP). Adopted advance by streets to protest against the mining company, the transitional justice and transform the security sector. At an international donor conference in loading sand in the mining area were set ablaze. In Brussels organised by the European Union, do- responseprotest turned a detachment violent andof the five PIU trucks was dispatched that were to the village but they failed to de-escalate the situation and three civilians were killed. A commission nors pledged €1.45 billion (US$1.7 billion) in of inquiry was set up, a promising commitment to Asupport commission of the government’sof inquiry set NDP. up to investigate accountability, but the preliminary report has yet to be made public despite being handed over to the associates is ongoing. To address rights abuses president on 17 September 2018. andthe financialviolations dealings of the previous of Jammeh regime and and his to close ensure justice for the victims, the government has REASONS FOR OPTIMISM established a Truth, Reparations and Reconcili- on past human rights abuses committed under espite allegations of corruption and political Jammeh,ation Commission combat impunity (TRRC). and It aims advance to shed reconcil light- missteps a July 2018 study by the National -

iation. The specific mandate of TRRC is to inves ProgressDemocratic has Institute strong (NDI) majority found that saying 68% of Country Going in right direction

D 68

A July 2018 study by the National Democratic Institute (NDI) found that 68% of Gambians think the country is heading in the right direction

Gambians think the country is heading in the right tigate human rights abuses and violations, pro- direction. On major democratic principles such as mote healing and reconciliation, provide victims the freedom of expression, human rights, freedom an opportunity to relate their own accounts of of assembly and the freedom of movement there abuses suffered, and, in appropriate cases, grant have been notable improvements when compared reparations to victims. The 11 TRRC commis- to the reality under Jammeh. Moreover, President sioners are to be appointed by the president in Barrow’s willingness to undertake and support consultation with key stakeholders and will take the promised and necessary reforms crucial for into consideration the geographical, religious, the consolidation of democratic rule in the Gambia cultural and gender diversity of The Gambia. Af- are a cause for further optimism. The pillars of that reform programme are outlined in the 2018–2021 ter the official launch of the TRRC on 15 October 2018, the Executive Director of the Commission,

28 80% approve of compensating families of victims achieve its goal of delivering justice to the victims of that were killed during the Jammeh government. Baba Galleh Jallow, stated his confidence that it will the previous government. Reforms that improve personal freedoms are - The National Assembly has also passed a bill to create a National Human Rights Commission. Judicial the most popular amongst Gambians (82%), fol reforms have started, with the appointment of Gam- lowed by judicial reforms (79%), media reforms bian judges to replace foreign ones that had been (73%) and electoral reforms (70%). selected by Jammeh. The former leader had long used the courts as a tool to consolidate his power THE TRANSITION CHALLENGE alarming frequency, often on the basis of failing to ruleand judgesthe way from Jammeh abroad wanted were themhired to.and Through fired with an eforms aimed at changing the function of act of parliament, a Constitutional Review Commis- government are underway but President sion was established in June 2018 to review and RBarrow and his government are grappling analyse the 1997 constitution and draft a new one with a plethora of short-term challenges as well. for the country. The members of the CRC were ap- The most urgent of these is ensuring post-dicta- - torship security and stability. President Barrow ings by the end of 2019. The review process aims to pointed on 1 June 2018 and should present its find be inclusive, designed to ensure that every Gambi- and has outsourced the security of the country an, including those in the diaspora, has the opportu- toappears ECOWAS to lack Military confidence Intervention in the Gambianin the Gambia Army nity to fully participate in the process. A likely addition is the introduction of presidential term limits. term stabilisation force to resolve the political impasse(ECOMIG). that ECOMIG ensued was when dispatched Jammeh asrefused a short to peacefully hand over power. However, it has had theAccording ability of to future the NDI presidents report 85% to gain support too strong a two- a its mandate reviewed and extended for one year footholdterm presidential in the institutions limit, reflecting of government. a desire to limit from its initial expiration date of 21 May 2017. Recently, President Barrow requested that the - derway is an overhaul of the security services. The mission be extended until 2021 to cover the en- Perhaps, the most significant of all the reforms un tire transition period. This is a request that secu- in September 2017, aims to establish an effective, rity analysts, believe risks further alienating the professionalSecurity Sector and Reform accountable (SSR) programme, security sector. launched The Gambian Army. SSR programme places the reform of security institutions within the larger framework of restoring Moreover, a growing youth population and high the rule of law and deepening democracy. Mainly levels of unemployment pose a serious and pressing challenge. The median age of the country is 17 process, which involves an in-depth security sector years old, with 64% of the population under the assessmentfunded with to donor identify support, the threats the first and phase challenges of the age of 25. A 2017 International Labour Organi- confronting the state and the people of The Gambia sation report estimated youth unemployment to has already been undertaken. The government’s ambivalence about whether to downsize the secu- protest. To avert such a scenario, the Barrow gov- rity forces is creating uncertainty among the army ernmentbe 38%; ashould potential invest source further of futurein human unrest capital, and according to Sait Matty Jaw of the University of the education and creating employment opportuni- Gambia. and sand mining sectors. In the long term, The Support for the reform process amongst Gambians Gambiaties for young needs people to overhaul in the theagricultural, education fisheries system is high even if low levels of awareness as to what ex- to put greater focus on skills and entrepreneur- actly they constitute continue to be prevalent. The ship training.

July 2018 NDI public opinion survey indicates that 29 If President Barrow can harness the good will and support that still exists he can deliver a successful

Otherwise, the transition and its concomitant reform processes will be like steering a large cargo ship, slow,transition tedious and and leave time a positive consuming. legacy. Barrow But in must order be to ready do so to he take must a strong be ready stance to make against difficult corruption decisions. and before the National Assembly an anti-corruption commission bill, which seeks to establish the anti-cor- ruptionintroduce commission, financial discipline and to provide both in effective terms of measures fiscal policy for anderadication, public spending. suppression The andprocess prevention of tabling of corrupt practices in both private and public life in The Gambia, must be expedited. regime receive justice, reparations or reconciliation will be an important and symbolic step forward. TheProgress repeal in of key repressive areas such media as the laws fight and against enacting impunity, of a Freedom thereby of Information ensuring that Act victims would ofmark the aJammeh further an autocratic state that was built and entrenched over 22 years cannot happen overnight. Whilst re- formclear processesbreak with are the in past. place The for longGambia term has systemic made significant change, immediate strides since issues 2016. and However,concerns fordismantling ordinary Gambians such as unemployment, corruption, stable electricity supply and access to quality health care back to democracy or a roadblock that stymied its restoration. cannot be ignored. Finding the balance will define whether Barrow is seen as facilitator of a transition

FURTHER READING

Bah, Omar. 2018. “Barrow Hints at Staying for Five Years”. The Standard Newspaper

Rescue” Gainako. 2018. “Barrow Cabinet Reshuffle: Power Grab, Political Patronage or a Confused President who needs but Strong Support for Reforms” National Democratic Institute. 2018. “Gambian’s View on the Constitutional Reform Process: Low Awareness,

30 SIERRA LEONE’S NEW DIRECTION?

Andrew Lavali Hassan Kallon

31 SIERRA LEONE’S NEW DIRECTION - tween Retired Brigadier Julius Maada Bio of MAKING A MARK The 31 March 2018 presidential run-off be Samura Kamara of the All Peoples Congress Party characterised by a slate of executive orders the Sierra Leone Peoples Party (SLPP) and Dr andhe first the month establishment of the new of governmentthe government was After a decade in power the APC’s promise of con- T transition team. The transition team was quick (APC) was a hotly contested and divisive election. tinuity, despite a change in leadership, failed to to get to work, creating a single treasury account and banning excessive and unnecessary govern- presidency. Rather, it was Bio’s promise of a “new ment expenditure; a move welcomed by many. sufficiently convince voters to give them back the direction” that 51.8% of ballots were cast in favour However, while there were good reasons behind of. many of these initial actions, the vigilante-style approach to operation that was employed raised On 4 April 2018, the former military leader, who concerns. In one particularly troubling instance, a judge of the superior court of judicature was insurgency, was sworn in as president at the Radis- - briefly ruled the country at the height of the rebel son Blu Hotel in the west of Freetown, just hours diately turn it over to a group of people claiming after the National Electoral Commission announced tomade possess to disembark the authority his official to retrieve vehicle government and imme vehicles based on an executive order issued with- among SLPP supporters was in stark contrast to the the final results. Euphoria and scenes of jubilation going as far to accuse the international community Thein the cabinet, first month announced of Bio taking in April office. and May 2018, reaction in the APC camp, with some senior officials of collusion and duplicity in the election outcome. received a mixed reaction for its composition. Having campaigned on a platform of change, social Critics highlight that Bio’s appointments do little inclusion and state accountability, the new pres- for ethnic and regional integration in the country. ident has his work cut out for his administration. 58% of the cabinet is comprised of citizens from However, six months into his term, President Bio’s the southern and eastern regions, the SLPP’s po- administration has made good progress in its effort litical stronghold. Low levels of female represen- to transform his vision into reality. tation led women’s advocacy groups to accuse the administration of paying lip service to gender empowerment. Of the 57 cabinet positions

32 named so far, only 12 are women. However, this is The Bio administration’s commitment to the an improvement compared to the gender balance rule of law and democratic principles were se-

by women. Women’s advocacy groups such as the of the new speaker of parliament, was referred 50/50in parliament, Group of where Sierra only Leone 13% have of been seats left are frus held- verely tested in the first 100 days. The election- trated by the lack of opportunities for women’s po- ty National Grand Coalition, a former presiden- litical engagement across the board. to by Dr Kandeh Yumkella, leader of the minori

TRACKING PROGRESS

n an effort to keep track of the campaign promises made by Bio now that he is in of- I - signed to allow citizens to hold the government accountable,fice an innovative has been online created promise-tracker, by a local net de- with support from the Open Society Initiative work of non-governmental organisations (NGOs) subsequently seeks to measure and track, the implementationfor West Africa. of The promises “Bio-meter” from identifies,the SLPP cam and- the structure of some campaign promises, which lackpaign clear over timeframes, the next five developing years. However appropriate due to challenge, civil society actors led by the Institute forand Governance fair indicators Reform has not were been able easy. to Despiteoffer an this as-

100 days. The new administration exceeded ex- pectationssessment of in government two key sectors; performance revenue inmobilisa its first- tion and expenditure management.

The establishment of a single treasury account transparency. Measures instituted by the Nation- alwas Revenue an important Authority step to towards enforce improvedtax compliance fiscal resulted in a trebling of daily revenue collection There is a lack of opportunities for women’s between March and June 2018. The management political engagement in Sierra Leone. of expenditure by the new government was also aided by the introduction of directives aimed at tial candidate and now a MP representing Kam- reducing expenses on foreign travel, as well as bia district, as a “thoroughly unfortunate affair.” the banning the hosting of government events in Opposition MPs were removed from the cham- hotels. A policy that split the Ministry of Finance confrontation over who was entitled to sit in ministries - the Ministry of Finance is now head- parliamentarybers by armed deliberations.police officers Atfollowing the end a oftense the edand by Economic a former World Development Bank employee, into two Jacob separate Saf- - was chosen as speaker, but was elected with- ment - was a positive reform in that allows each outstandoff the majority Dr Abass participation Chernor Bundu of the of opposition the SLPP respectivefa and Nabeela ministry Tunis to isdevote the Minister additional of Develop resourc- APC MPs, leading them to dismiss the process es to tackling pressing issues they face. as a “rape” of the country’s democracy by the

33 After 100 days, administration exceeded expectations in two key sectors; revenue mo- bilisation and expenditure management.

SLPP. The 2018 parliamentary elections pro- MAKING ENDS MEET a result where the party that controls the execu- duced, for the first time in Sierra Leone’s history, tive does not also have the majority in parliament. new administration stressed that the inherit- Fearful that the APC could have undermined their edn one economy of its first“was official the worst pronouncements, in living memory”. the programmes if their candidate was elected par- I Economic growth dropped from 6% in 2016 to liamentary speaker, the SLPP was uncompromis- - ing in ensuring that their chosen candidate was appointed. This event has only served to increase growth3.7% in to2017 remain according relatively to the constant International throughout Mon the tension and acrimony in parliament. etary Fund (IMF), which projects a lower level of

Criticism has also followed the dismissal of ten- high2018. and In addition, debt levels inflation, are a which major stood concern. at 17.2% Ex- ternalwhen thedebt, new amounting government to US took $1.6 office, billion, remains along and conditions of employment. The removal of with domestic debt of Le 4.99 trillion (US$658 theured commissioner public officials of without the Anti-Corruption regard for the termsCom- - partment and Central Bank governor have re- thatmillion) government were figures owed vendors cited in for the various Government goods mission (ACC), the head of the Immigration De sulted in threats of legal recourse by the former andTransition services, Team adding Report a further (GTTR) US$1.4 that also billion noted to the amount owed. The Bio government estimates from the government has been to state that the that servicing these debts alone will amount to holders of these positions. The official response - annual repayments of US$262 million. With gov- ical or ineffective in their performance. The fail- public officials in question had become too polit ure however to substantiate this with proof and in 2018 the government will struggle to cover re- a lack of willingness to conduct a transparent currenternment expenditures revenue projected and make to be debt US$539 repayments, million investigation into the allegations does not repre- let alone raise the additional capital needed to sent a commitment to due process. deliver on its poverty reduction agenda.

34 The Budget Advocacy Network has also raised fears that government is unlikely to meet its revenue

initiatives. The state of economic affairs has only added to the substantial workload of Finance Minister, target of a tax revenue to GDP ratio of 20% by 2023, which will have further implications for proposed- eign direct investment for the country. The IMF mission to Freetown in September 2018 concluded that Jacob Jusu Saffa, who has travelled frequently since taking office, in a desperate bid to secure new for paving the way for a return of support that was suspended in the run-up to the elections. However, Chinesegovernment loans has accrued made bysignificant Bio’s predecessor progress forin introducing mining and revenueinfrastructure and expenditure deals may limit control the measures,space and

ability of government to take on additional debt to finance its poverty reduction programmes.

subsidyThe recent removal, removal a precondition of the fuel subsidy for the resulted resumption in a 33% of IMF pump assistance, price increase, has failed from to Le6,000bolster the(US$0.75) Leone, norto Le8,000 has it helped (US$1) the a litre,local andeconomy widespread or improved protests conditions throughout for ordinaryFreetown Sierra and other Leoneans. urban The centers. currency The

has depreciated significantly in value against the US Dollar from Le7,650 in March 2018 to Le8,450 in- falaOctober, Kallon inflation resorted is tocurrently auctioning at 18% foreign and currency prices of to essential commercial commodities banks in an such effort as torice stablise and transport the currency;fares have the long-termincreased. implicationsWithin a week of theseof being actions appointed remain Central to be seen. Bank governor in August 2018 Dr Kel

President Bio’s Free Education Programme, a promise that became the central policy initiative of his party’s election campaign, was officially launched in September 2018. and one in the afternoon; where will government

EDUCATION AND CORRUP- where new schools will be built in order to best TION: THE DEFINING ISSUES servefind thelocal number communities; of trained and teachershow the Ministry needed; of Education will provide administrative over- resident Bio’s ambitious Free Education Pro- sight to ensure the implementation of the initia- gramme, a promise that became the central tive - many Sierra Leoneans hold the view that Ppolicy initiative of his party’s election cam- the President’s vision, if realised, could create a paign, and which aims to increase the enrolment generation of educated Sierra Leoneans capable and retention rates of children in primary and sec- of providing sustained growth and prosperity for - the country in the coming years ahead. The pro- ber 2018. Even though serious doubts remain over gramme exceeded its target of 1.5 million pupils severalondary componentsschools, was ofofficially the programme launched - inthe Septem plan to - revert to a single-shift system where all children go siasm for education is shared by parents and chil- in the first few weeks demonstrating that enthu to school in the morning and end at noon, instead of dren alike, even if teething problems are likely. two seperate classes being held, one in the morning On corruption too, there are early signs that point

35 to short-term progress. Having replaced Ade Ma- Cauley as ACC head in June 2018, Francis Ben-Kai- EXPLAINING UNEXPLAINED fala took no time in issuing a series of indictments WEALTH - mer vice president Victor Bockarie Foh, and Alhaji n 4 July 2018, the Government Transi- Minkailuagainst two Mansaray, senior former a former government Minister officialsof Mines - andfor - now the deputy leader of the APC. Foh has agreed Ocis, who was also appointed the country’s to pay over US$68,000 to the ACC in an effort to Chief Ministertion Team - a (GTT),new position led by thatProf. supervises David Fran all have his case settled out of court. He has also stat- cabinet ministers - released its report. It accused ed that his former boss, Ernest Bai Koroma should - be invited to answer alleged charges of corruption. gaging in various corrupt practices and political The recent moves by the ACC has provided citizens mismanagement,officials within the stating former thatadministration “an astonishing of en some optimism that President Bio’s anti-corruption - crusade might result in something more substantive tion by the former APC government of President than merely empty rhetoric. Ernest Bai Koroma’s Ernestlevel of Koroma fiscal indiscipline had led to the and near-collapse rampant corrup of Si- - erra Leone’s economy”. It recommended “a judge- led Special Commission of Inquiry with a limited tozeal the for ACC fighting in 2008 corruption - soon disappearedin his early yearsfrom inview. of timeframe and mandate to recover all stolen or Sierrafice - he Leoneans granted willadditional continue powers to keep of a investigation close eye on inappropriately converted state funds and oth- President Bio and his actions so that he does not fol- er assets, including buildings, quarters, land and low the same path. the hundreds of vehicles still unaccounted for”. It further noted that “the commission should also In keeping to one of his campaign promises, Presi- dent Bio declared his assets to the ACC. However, the Section 26 of the Anti-Corruption Act that deals failure to make the declaration public or to amend withseek ‘unexplainedan explanation wealth’, from ifformer it determines officials, them under to have accumulated such wealth during their time assets is not in keeping in line with the administration’sthe ACC Actrhetoric to force for public greater officials transparency to publish and their ac- in public office”. - agenda, political appointments have followed a fa- tual inaccuracies in the report as evidence that countability. Despite its pronounced new direction theAPC GTT officials had wereproduced quick a toreport point to out serve various a politi fac- district levels have been appointed to the current ad- cal purpose. In a detailed response to the GTTR, ministration,miliar pattern. effectively Senior party fusing officials political at nationaland national and APC Secretary General Osman Foday Yansaneh, stated that it was his belief that the “transition - team woefully failed in this endeavor and instead offices, as happened during the APC’s decade-long - appointedrule. Despite chairman Bio’s promises of the National to de-politicise Telecommuni institu- railed the course of its mission into a tribunal of cationstions, the Commission; SLPP Chairman, the party’s Dr. Prince Secretary Harding, General, was vengeance,delved into recrimination;a political fishing a method expedition inconsistent and de Umar Napoleon Koroma, has been made head of the with standard transition process between one National Commission for Privatisation; and Lahai administration and the other…Instead of a transi- Lawrence Leema, the publicity secretary is now the tion process, the government transition team was reduced to a mere tribunal to defame and make General, Osman Foday Yansaneh, and other senior specious claims against the APC in the jurispru- Deputy Internal Affairs Minister. The APC Secretary dence of the Red Queen as in the classic – Alice president’s “selective appointments” and his cru- - party officials have been left unimpressed with the dence, later a commission of inquiry.” inclination with more pliable individuals from his in Wonderland: first the judgment, then the evi party”.sade to “replace all government officials of a certain As political recriminations and accusations continued to be made on both sides, progress was made towards the establishment of a Commission

36 of parliamentary seats demonstrates the need for of Justice Abdulhai Bangura put before parliament twoof Inquiry. proposed Deputy constitutional Attorney Generalinstruments and Ministertowards of national importance and work together in a its actualisation which were passed on 22 Octo- morepolitical inclusive parties manner; to find common negotiating ground and on building issues ber 2018. Justice Georgewill Biobele of Nigeria has consensus on the way forward. Ideologically the been named as one of the judges to preside over the two main parties are not so far apart. hearings, while advanced preparations are underway to select a venue and make arrangements for President Bio has made known his intention to the commission. Even though APC loyalists have dis- establish a Commission for National Cohesion missed it as a witch hunt, President Bio has openly and Peace. At present, the terms and composition, stated that the commission will establish standards as well as the vision for what it would achieve that his own government and future administra- are not known. Regardless of whether such a tions will have to adhere to. If properly convened, commission is established, President Bio should the commission could send a strong signal against make national unity a cornerstone of his agen- impunity and put an end to the corruption that con- da. The decision taken by Bio and his opponent, tinues to sanction impunity and corrupt practices Samura Kamara, to attend church together the throughout the country. However, for this to happen week after the election results were announced the commission will need to be seen as a fair, pro- was a symbolic gesture of goodwill. However, fessional and independent arbitrator. If these mini- more substantive efforts should follow. Sierra Le- mum conditions are not met the exercise will likely one remains ethno-regionally polarised. Half of devolve into political theatre with both sides accus- the population feel aggrieved, and believe they ing each other of stoking political tensions. are second class citizens in their country when their party is not in power. Uniting Sierra Leone should be seen as the foundation for inclusive A NEW, UNITED, DIRECTION? growth and all institutional development. To this end, the Bio administration should make national cohesion a priority and commit to working in a he Bio administration faces an uphill task bipartisan way to solve the numerous challenges to resuscitate an ailing economy and better facing the country. Tintegrate a deeply fragmented society. The result of inequalities in distribution of the nation’s largessechallenge and has the only actions been of made self-serving more difficult politicians as a bent on manipulating the country’s ethnic diversity as a means to win votes at any cost. The slender margin of victory for President Bio in the presidential race, coupled with the APC winning a majority