Urban Task Force Cancun 2006

1 Acknowledgements

Arq. Carlos Constandse Dr. Chis Pyke, US EPA, Global Change Ing. Sigfrido Paz Paredes Research Program Arq. Jorge Lobo Lindy Dingerson, PerotSystems, Remote Ing. Alberto Oriza Sensing Hazard, NOAA Coastal Sr. Herbert Carrillo Services Center. Ing. Rodrigo de la Peña Dr. Jim Titus, US EPA, Sea Level Rise Ing. Diego de la Peña Sánchez Alan E. Strong, NOAA Ing. José Enrique Chacón Dr. Bruce Richmond, USGS Lic. Margarita Martínez Christopher Junkins, Meteorologist, Sr. Oscar Cadena National Hurricane Center, Tropical Lic. Luis Arce Lara Prediction Center Sr. Ernesto Muñoz Wayne P. Szameitat, Sales Manager, Optech Incorporated Dr. Edward Olsen, NASA, Jet Propulsion Laboratory Dr. Bjorn H. Lambrigtsen, NASA, Jet Propulsion Laboratory

2 Contents

About the Urban Task Force 4 Team 5 Background 6 Scenario Planning 9 Context 14 Scenario A 16 Scenario B 24 Scenario C 31 Summary of Scenarios 35 Tourism Planning 37 Environmental assessment 38 Hurricane Wilma 41 Conclusion 52

3 About the Urban Task Force

The Urban Task Force (UTF) is an The UTF taking place in Cancun in initiative form the International Society of February 2006 intends to provide local City and Regional Planners (ISoCaRP) authorities with a fresh, rational, directed at reinforcing its position as a sustainable and implementable set of recognised international association of ideas towards urban improvement after independent professionals concerned the incidence of hurricane Wilma in with urbanism whilst reaching out to October 2005. The diagnosis and local authorities, and communities at ensuing planning recommendations aim large, to provide expert and unbiased for Cancun to be better prepared for advice on pressing planning issues. potential natural disasters whilst inspiring an urban model that balances The UTF is organised as a one week growth and a sustainable horizon, workshop sponsored by Cancun's local aiming for a dynamic economy, an authorities and undertaken by specially integrated society, and an improved designated ISoCaRP Senior Planners. quality of life for all citizens in the region

4 Team

ISoCaRP Alvaro Arellano Krystyna Mieszkowska Poland Jim Reilly USA Ric Stephens USA Hein Struben Netherlands Gijs Wolfs Netherlands

Ismael Fernandez Mexico, VicePresident Pablo Vaggione Spain, UTF Team Leader

Pierre Laconte President Milica Bajic Secretary General Judy van Hemert Executive Director

IMPLAN Eduardo Ortíz Jasso Director Margret Bongers Rocío Garza Leonard Luis Ernesto Pérez Fernández Isaac Rincón García Gerardo García Beltrán Ángel Loreto Viruel Paul Blanchon

5 Background

Cancun's population is approximately hotels, Cancun soon attracted investors 500,000 inhabitants on the tip of the from all over the world. The city has Yucatan peninsula, in the state of grown rapidly, covering the former island , Mexico. and the nearby mainland. Most 'cancunenses' here are from Yucatan Brief history In the early 1950s and other Mexican states. A growing Cancun was an almost unpopulated and number of residents are from the rest of undeveloped island just off the America and Europe. coast of the Yucatan peninsula. It was the home to three Urban form Three main areas can caretakers of a coconut plantation and be identified in Cancun's urban form. small Maya ruins. The government of The first area consists of a narrow strip Mexico decided to develop a tourist of 22 km extending North-South along resort on Cancun, which was originally the axis of Boulevard Kukulkan, between financed by a USD $27 million loan from the Nichupté Lagoon and the Caribbean the Inter-American Development Bank. Sea. This linear development, aptly A causeway was built to link Cancun to called the Hotel Zone, concentrates the mainland, together with an tourism-related development with international airport and an entire city for multitude of resorts, hotels and support workers, with housing, schools and businesses, as well as historical ruins. medical facilities. The second area is known as Pueblo de Development of Cancun started in 1970 Apoyo (literally, Support Town), and is and grew rapidly in the 1980s. Despite located North of the Kukulcan strip. Its initial scepticism that forced the Mexican distinctive pentagonal shape was government to finance the first eight planned by Enrique Landa. This area is

6 otherwise known as centro (downtown) record previously held by Hurricane and concentrates a number of civil Gilbert, which also had impacted the amenities such as the city hall. Its Yucatan Peninsula. character is mainly residential. On 21 October, Hurricane Wilma made The third area, Zona de las Regiones, its landfall on Mexico's Yucatan located to the North of the centro, is an Peninsula as a powerful Category 4 attempt to cope with Cancun's hurricane, with winds in excess of 150 considerable growth. The urban fabric in mph. The hurricane's first passed this area consists of a large orthogonal over the island of , to reach carpet, dedicated to residential use, with at around midnight on single family housing the dominant 22 October EDT, with winds near 140 typology. Its capacity is for a remarkable mph. Portions of the island of Cozumel half a million of people. However, its experienced the calm eye of Wilma for roads are narrow and open areas and several hours with some blue skies and civic amenities scarce. sunshine visible at times. The eye slowly drifted northward, with the centre Hurricane Wilma Wilma was passing just to the west of Cancun. the third Category 5 hurricane of the Some portions of the Yucatan Peninsula 2005 season. At its peak, it was the experienced hurricane force winds for most intense ever well over 24 hours. The hurricane began recorded in the Atlantic basin and the accelerating in the early morning hours tenth most intense globally, with the of 23 October, exiting the north-eastern lowest ever tip of the Yucatan Peninsula and recorded in the Western Hemisphere of entering the as a 882 millibars at sea level, exceeding the Category 2 storm.

7 Wilma made several landfalls, with the most destructive effects felt in the Yucatan Peninsula, particularly in Cancun. At least three deaths have been reported, numerous persons reported missing, and the insured damage is estimated at between US$5 and US$8 billion. The devastation was almost total with many of the principal roadways from the Hotel Zone, which was completely flooded. It has been estimated that 95% of the tourism infrastructure was seriously damaged. Once the storm left the peninsula, a number of the beautiful beaches of Cancun had been washed away. Thousands of local and foreign tourists were hosted in improvised refuges. All airport and harbour operations were cancelled between 21 and 25 October due to weather conditions. It is estimated that the local tourist industry lost over US $15 Million daily. Many houses were devastated, and many jobs were lost.

8 Scenario Planning

Scenario planning is a method for Informed by a series of presentations Scenario A The economic base of margin for locals rather low. The learning about the future by with local experts in regional and this scenario focuses on mass tourism. workforce's required skills can be understanding the nature and impact of municipal planning, GIS and In this setting, the competitive factor for considered as low. The model's labour the most uncertain and important driving meteorology, and a number of dialogues Cancun can be described as "sun and force comprises mainly low wage forces affecting our future. It is a group with representatives of the private sand at an attractive price". Cancun's service industry workers, who have process which encourages knowledge sector, the team was in position to competitors are those destinations which reduced opportunities for cultural exchange and development of mutual propose alternatives that illustrate can offer comparable climate conditions development and little access to broader deeper understanding of central issues hypothetical yet possible futures for the at comparable prices. skills such as Information Technology as important to the future. The goal is to region, each associated with a unique this is not usually required in most jobs craft a number of diverging stories by set of public benefits and costs. The target consumer of this scenario are created. extrapolating uncertain and heavily those tourist concerned with price, a influencing driving forces. The method The team elaborated the following group that generally chooses all- In this scenario the role of institutional is widely used as a strategic scenarios for consideration: inclusive packages for their holidays. policy making can be considered as management tool, but has also been Hence, the main actors in this model are marginal. The main actor in the used for enabling other types of group the tourism industry integrators, scenario is the private sector, specifically discussion about a common future such international tour operators and hotel travel industry integrators who control as territorial planning. chains, such as Barceló, Melia and key elements in the value chain (visitor's Starwood. transport from and to their origin, The team adopted the scenario planning accommodation, leisure and food and methodology with the aim of provoking a In tourism industry models based in the drink consumption) and commoditise thorough reflection on the challenges quantity of visitors, the role of the host local resources and labour. This is the and opportunities facing Cancun. territory can be described as a provider no-action scenario as it is the most likely Therefore, the outcome should be of natural resources and workforce for a to happen should no policy initiative be viewed as a tool to support the fee. In most such cases, resource undertaken to redirect current Municipality and its stakeholders in consumption (i.e. land, water, energy, development trends. preparing the Strategic Plan 2030. waste) is very high and the economic

9 Scenario B This hypothetical actors are the public sector, which is unlikely that the private sector can Institutional instruments must be put in future contemplates a change in responsible for providing the enabling independently undertake such place in order to ensure quality in new Cancun's economic base towards a policy and the required infrastructure, transformation as it does neither have development and standards of service, mixed model by which Cancun would and the corporations, which are required enough human resources to implement and to financially support the act as a services hub of regional stature. to address a location commitment to such complex, comprehensive vision nor transformation of the built stock from create a services critical mass. the financial mechanisms to avoid short mass-oriented to increase its The economic base consists of a term obligations. competitiveness in terms of quality. The combination of the currently existing Cancun's resource consumption, as a dynamism of the local entrepreneur is tourism industry, which would be regional centre providing services to Scenario C Keeping its focus on vital as the model is based on a number retained to some extent, with the support the regional tourism industry, the tourism industry, this Scenario of local private sector ventures rather addition of a cluster of services focusing can be described as medium as the contemplates a switch in target market than relying in large tourism industry on the tourism industry reaching the model calls for a compact, higher from mass tourism to a qualitative-based multinationals. The concordance with Yucatan peninsula and the near density urban development. Margins for profile with less number of visits. In this environmental lobbies in development Caribbean region. Services provided to service-focused cities tend to be high if setting, Cancun's competitive factor is its policy is also indispensable as the the region can include financial services, they are capable of aggregating capacity to offer a distinctive tourist model needs the highest environmental telecommunications, education, health, significant value for their surrounding experience adding cultural, educational standards to be competitive. transportation, logistics and distribution, region. Education and cultural and health related activities to those pull and light manufacturing. development are crucial in this scenario, factors expected to be found in a sun The Cancun role can be therefore as the economic model requires high and sea destination. The target describes as a quality provider of visitor The scenario's competitive factor can be workforce skills, with special mention to segment consists of tourists looking for experiences capitalising on natural and described as "employment in paradise" information and communications environmental quality, historic and built resources and innovative business as the capacity to attract skilled human technology. cultural heritage, unique design and initiatives. As concentration of visitors is resources to operate the model is vital. construction, and unparalleled service. lower compared to mass-driven models, As said, the target consumers are the The role of institutional policy making is it is viable to think that the burden on the professionals in addition to a less critical. Without the vision and initial To make this model possible, a close environment would decrease. A model relevant visitor figure. The model's main impulse from the public sector it is cooperation between sectors is required. based on quality requires achieving

10 significant margins. For that, an unparalleled service level is needed; Scenario A Scenario B Scenario C hence, workforce skills are important as Economic base Focused on mass tourism Mixed, cluster tourism Focused on quality tourism well as an efficient ICT system. services, convention destination, tourism Cancun role Provider of natural Regional centre providing Quality provider of visitor The role of institutional policy making is resources and workforce logistics and services experiences capitalising on very important. Besides guaranteeing for a fee support in tourism industry natural and built resources to a broad region; and innovative business that the development model preserves transportation hub initiatives both environment and built heritage, the Urban policy role Marginal Crucial Important public sector has to provide the initial Competitive factor Sun and sand at an Employment in paradise Preserved environment and impulse in the transformation of the attractive price unique cultural heritage Consumer Tourist concerned with Professionals; tourists to a Tourists looking for economic model, including educational price, generally opting for lesser extent environmental quality, campaigns, financial support for all inclusive packages historic and cultural heritage, unique design and renovation of the hotel infrastructure, construction, and micro credits for local entrepreneurs, unparalleled service Main actors Tourism industry Public sector infrastructure “Quality police”, hotel workforce capacity building, and aggregators, international and corporations entrepreneurs (perhaps providing mechanisms to ensure service tour operators and hotel local), environmental chains lobbies quality. Required amount of High Medium Low consumers in economic model Margin Low High High

Required workforce skills Low High Medium

Culture and human Low High Moderate development Information Technology Low Crucial Low development / use

11 Implications In Scenarios A and C, investments in infrastructure on the short Cancun continues to be a major tourism term, but with strong benefits on a long destination and consequently the tourist term. The following table illustrates the industry remains the predominant programmatic assumption for each economic sector. The difference scenario. between them is that scenario A continues to focus on the tourism market The tourist scenarios A and C will presently drawn to Cancun, while always show urban growth mainly driven scenario C envisions a market shift by tourist accommodation as well as towards the luxury or exclusive niche housing for tourism industry employees. market. Scenario B however depends highly on metropolitan density for reasons of Whilst "A" shows immediate stable interdependence of diversified urban conditions, in the long term we foresee functions. only a modest growth perspective, if not a decline. Scenario C, which Thus it can be concluded that growth in accommodates tourism programme in a scenarios on A and C, strongly related to more distributed development pattern, the tourism industry, will always lead would offer stability in the long term by towards extending territorial boundaries, preserving the natural beauty of the while scenario B will have to region. accommodate growth by the consolidation of the metropolitan area by Scenario B hypothesises a rather radical increasing the existing density within the diversification of the economy and a city boundary. consolidation of the metropolitan area. This means a need for higher

12 Scenarios

Base Base +30 Escenario A +30 Escenario B +30 Escenario C+30

Cancun - población 800,000 1,000,000 1,000,000 1,500,000 900,000 - población 100,000 500,000 500,000 500,000 600,000 Población total 900,000 1,500,000 1,500,000 2,000,000 1,500,000

Cancun - personas por vivienda 5 160,000 3 333,333 333,333 500,000 300,000 Riviera Maya - personas por vivienda 5 20,000 3 166,667 166,667 166,667 200,000 Total personas por vivienda 5 180,000 3 500,000 500,000 666,667 500,000

Cancun - habitaciones 30,000 60,000 60,000 30,000 45,000 Riviera Maya - habitaciones 45,000 Total - habitaciones 105,000

Densidad constante, incremento de área Area actual urbana de Cancun ha 14,000 17,544 17,544 26,316 15,789 Densidad hab/ha 57 57 57 57 57 Viviendas por ha 11 Incremento de área ha 3,544 3,544 12,316 1,789

Area constante, incremento de densidad Area actual urbana de Cancun ha 14,000 14,000 14,000 14,000 14,000 Densidad hab/ha 57 71 71 107 64 Vivioendas por ha Incremento de densidad hab/ha 14 14 50 7

13 Context

Topography Ancient systems of sand mounds exist along the coast. Lowlands between these high features trap water during hurricanes and can cause extensive flooding and water damage. While the development of a number of drainage channels will contribute to solve local flooding during normal rain events, it would not be cost effective to design a drainage system to cope with hurricane-induced flooding.

Additionally, improved drainage into the existing mangrove lagoons and wetlands could incur negative ecological impacts. Therefore, a design principle that focuses growth along the tops of these mounds and avoids development in low- lying locations has been considered. The team has also proposed a second design principle that creates a limited number of horizontal integrations, crosswise through the mounds, which might be developed as interconnecting roadways and visual corridors.

14 Context: Cancun today

15 Scenario A: "Ciudad Turismo"

This scenario assumes that the region's consumption. A larger service sector will Hotel Zone could render the bridge tourism infrastructure, residential result in increased stress to the work- unnecessary. neighbourhoods and commercial force residential areas outside the city. districts will continue to develop much as In contrast, the area existing between they have done in the past 35 years. It is expected that the density increase the airport and the city centre is to be of the Zona Hotelera will lead to higher considered as an independent project Future development is assumed to pressures on traffic and very likely a that can be implemented in parallel or at preserve the current lineal growth congested situation at the connecting a later stage. It is believed that this pattern and other tendencies previously intersection nearby the city centre. development evidences little synergy established. The actual Zona Hotelera with the scenario of mass tourism. will increase its density. The Pueblo de This suggests that abroad and Apoyo where support workforce resides comprehensive traffic strategy needs to is expected to grow, although to a lesser be prepared, considering public degree, based on the existing grid transport as a vital element. pattern extending in a North West direction. This scenario has a strong In this regard, it was made known to the parallel with the coast development of team that the local government is Waikiki, Hawaii, dominated by large- already considering a multi-million dollar scale tourism developers. bridge across the Nichupte lagoon. Whist Scenario A is the only of that Further expansion of the Hotel Zone would create conditions which might along the coastline would increase the support this investment, the UTF team pressure on infrastructure and urban recommends reconsidering the bridge services such as the provision of energy project as perhaps increasing and waste management. Emission will intersection options and improving the also increase, as well as land and water circulation pattern at both ends of the

16 Scenario A: Urban form

17 Scenario A: Mobility

18 Scenario A: Mobility

19 Scenario A: Transport

20 Scenario A: Land use

21 Scenario A: A new bridge?

The local government is evaluating the benefits of constructing a bridge across the Nichupte lagoon. Two possible layouts over the lagoon are being considered. An analysis of traffic volume showing the current status and the situation after the construction of the bridge do not show a significant difference in the Boulevard Kukulkan segment, and the congestion in the East end on the boulevard is still remarkable. Current This suggests that broadening the boulevard with a bridge is less important than solving the intersection at the end of the Boulevard, and hence, the bridge will not solve congestion.

New Bridge

22 Scenario A: Possible location of government- proposed bridge

23 Scenario B: "Ciudad Central"

This scenario sees Cancun develop as a series of catalytic projects. Specifically, commerce as well as tourism, and the extensive industrial zone specialised on leading commercial and service centre these comprise the site of the new civic two ports are to be developed as transport and value added logistics, serving its surrounding region and a centre in Malecon and the creation of potential doors to the Caribbean. taking advantage of the proximity of a larger influence zone in Yucatan and the three major corridors in addition to the Somewhat like San Diego, California, relatively well equipped airport. The Caribbean. The tourism industry will be Hotel Zone. this balanced economic scenario East Corridor will feature a cluster of retained, but the main source of necessitates a new vision for future universities, research, technology employment would be in service related 1. Via Lopez Portillo Corridor: A demographics and investment. services and government institutions. jobs. mixed use district with an emphasis on The model banks on the quality of small commercial/service developments Future urban development is structured landscape and climate in attracting The model will require a remarkable that serve both local residents and the in three distinctive axes: between the highly educated human recourses from transformation in the accommodation building industry in the Hotel Zone. airport and the city centre, along the all over the world. stock, from hotel rooms to extension of the highway going condominiums in order to provide 2. Libramiento Merida -Playa del westwards, and a bypass between the The Scenario assumes a diversification housing for professionals moving in. In Carmen Corridor: An industrial district two main highways, connecting the of economical activities in the city itself, addition, hospitals, schools, and other intended to serve the import-export airport and creating a compact, an efficient infrastructure network that is support facilities need to be upgraded or activities of the region with relevant triangular urban lay out. highly based on connectivity and a built from scratch. As much as the trade/logistics components and strengthening of social networks investment in infrastructure such as infrastructure. These new city strips induce increase of between management, knowledge, roads and airports is critical, so is a high urban density within the existing city technology and production. It is expenditure in education and cultural 3. Cancun- grid. The distinctive urban areas express proposed that the existing bus service activities to both attract and prepare Corridor: A Regional District that would a variety of programmatic clusters that be complemented by a light rail system. professionals. contain a myriad of corporate represent a diversification of economic headquarters and professional offices, activity. In general terms, the Western To fulfil the growth perspective foreseen major health facilities, universities and Corridor acts as a small scale yet in this Scenario, urban development will specialised services. The international regional production and service area, need to be carefully planned including a airport becomes an important node for the Southern Corridor as a more

24 Scenario B: Urban form

25 Scenario B: Mobility

26 Scenario B: Mobility

27 Scenario B: Transport

28 Scenario B: land use

29 Scenario B: Section at Boulevard Colosio and lagoon

30 Scenario C: "Ciudad de Comunidades"

The "City of Communities" model would In many ways, this scenario is the that the ecological green zones function place emphasis on preserving the opposite of Scenario A: tourism is like a whole; the urban settlements are environmental quality or the region and scattered around in a much bigger area just 'plug-ins'. Normally, such lay outs the redevelopment of a number of along the Mexican Riviera. Small cause negative effects on the communities within the region, such as communities of high quality tourist environment because of increased Puerto Juarez and Puerto Morelos which compounds are imbedded in the natural mobility. To prevent this, the have grown organically around small beauty of the landscape. For the communities should have an autarchic ports to the north and south on the demanding tourists, it provides a sense (self-sufficient) character: Cancun as the Cancun city proper. of privacy, almost a thematic approach, city of villages. which might as well be one of the Tourism would continue to be a primary unique selling points of the region. At the economic driver, but its territorial same time, the relative separation of the footprint will show a dispersed contained settlements makes it possible arrangement which peaks marking these to diversify the tourism opportunities. communities as well as other attractors The sprawl of the communities can be such as the cenotes (immense, deep, seen as an archipelago of different open wells) located to the southwest of experiences, there's something to Cancun. chose.

With some similarity to the smaller-scale To reduce daily commuting, each village development of Oregon or New England is to be accompanied by housing coastlines, this model would facilities for local inhabitants that work in decentralise the tourism economy. It the tourist industry. The small scale in would also facilitate opportunities for the mix of locals and tourists could even more diverse tourism experiences and be one of the attractions of the vacation support ecotourism development at the (authentic informality).The sprawl of cenotes and coastal villages small communities makes it possible 31 Scenario C: Land use

32 Scenario B: Mobility

33 Scenario C: Transport

34 Summary of Scenarios

Summary Scenario A Summary Scenario B Summary Scenario C 2030 Population 1,500,000 2030 Population 2,000,000 2030 Population 1,500,000

Identity Globalised Identity Cosmopolitan Identity Mexican Caribbean

Nodes Isla Cancun—Zona Hotelera Nodes Malecon – Airport Corridor Nodes Malecón, Isla Cancun, Puerto Morelos, Puerto Juárez Districts Zona Hotelera Districts Airport Corridor, Hotel Zone, Ejidos Districts Zona Hotelera, Puerto Morelos, Ejidos, Ruta de los Cenotes Landmarks Hotels Landmarks Malecon Landmarks Malecon

Limits Sea, lagoon, airport Limits Sea, lagoon, airport Limits Sea, lagoon, airport

Axis Hotels-Airport Corridor Axis Malecón-Aeropuerto-Puerto Morelos Axis Malecón-Aeropuerto-Puerto Morelos New Bridge over Nichupté Lagoon Libramiento - Carretera Mérida-Puerto Libramiento - Carretera Mérida-Puerto Morelos Morelos José L. Portillo José L. Portillo

35 New urban development

Scenario A Scenario B Scenario C

36 Tourism Planning

It is relevant to mention that the tourism 3. Services - Integrated services (as in industry in Cancun will be an enduring land use) is fundamental to expanding element in city planning. Therefore it is tourism. to be noted that the tourism supply and demand economics for tourism dictate 4. Information - This element includes specific planning requirements. On the signage (symbols preferred over supply side, tourism destinations must translation), website(s), kiosks, and for have five essential components: many public spaces, a visible information officer. 1. Attractors - Cancun has numerous attractors that include sunny tropical 5. Promotion - Advertising, news media, weather, beaches, surf and sea, websites, publication, and all kinds of cenotes, and close proximity to many promotional activities/events should archaeological sites. Preservation and keep Cancun in the hearts and minds of enhancement of these attractors should international travellers. be a tourism planning priority.

2. Infrastructure - Access and accommodation are key components. In particular, the airport establishes the first "sense of arrival" setting the stage for the tourism experience. Improved public transportation ensures visitor travel to broaden the economic benefits.

37 Environmental assessment

The following evaluations have been The environmental impact matrix strength is estimated within a three- taxis, will adversely affect the acoustic prepared to allow stakeholders in the compares both environmental and grade scale: from the least to the most and air quality. Both hotel and municipal Cancun region to compare the impacts quality of life issues. The environmental serious potential damage (or from the growth will increase the demand for of the alternative development scenarios features assessed are: Nichupté lagoon; most to the least resistant item). water supply and public utilities. A on the environmental and their relative mangrove areas along the coast (south second landing strip for the airport will resistance to the destructive forces of of Cancun); forest systems; and finally, be needed and its construction will result hurricanes. The accuracy of assessment reef/beaches. The quality of life issues Scenarios and their environmental in loss of forest and increased noise, is limited by the general nature of the examined include water resources; impact which will have a negative effect on assumptions and information used, so noise level; air quality; and urban fauna in the surrounding zone. Growth the analysis operates only with greenery /landscaping. The overall Although the overall impact of all of mobility between the city, airport and qualitative estimates which are matrix shows the impact of each scenarios (measured by the number of Riviera Maya as well as within the meaningful solely for comparison component within each scenario on filled matrix cells for each of them) can sprawling area of the city itself will purposes. each of the environmental and quality be considered as similar, it should be produce great volumes of air pollution life variables. The classical pointed out that its differing plan and high level of noise. Lower emphasis The analysis has been presented in the environmental impact matrix analyses elements are affected differently in each on the development of the other form of matrices. For each alternative separately its magnitude and importance scenario. settlements within the municipality will the following plan components have but due to the general form of scenarios have less adverse environmental impact. been assessed: hotel zone, urban shape this impact estimation is limited to a four Scenario A shows the greatest number (city of Cancun), development of the grade scale of effects: adverse; less of adverse environmental effects. In Scenario B the development impact other settlements within Benito Juarez adverse; neutral; and favourable. Further and intensive development of lessens on the lagoon (it is assumed to municipality, mobility (understood as the hotel zone around the lagoon, and receive a nature conservation area flows of people and goods as well as The matrix estimating the potential the possibility of creating a new bridge status) and beach but increases on the means of their transportation), airport hurricane impact uses three variables - across it, threaten the fragile ecosystem. forest as the city will need to grow, and public utilities (excluding the principal detrimental factors of the It will also exploit most intensively the despite the higher densities. The transportation). hurricane: high-speed wind; rain beach on Cancun's Zona Hotelera. The territorial expansion can threaten the flooding; and, . The impact transport of tourists, if still by buses and aquifer zone, which supplies the

38 Cancun's drinking water. The problem of worsening the life quality within the city Environmental variables Factors of the life quality Effect on Lagoon Man- Forest Reef/ Water re- Noise Air Urban will be similar to the scenario A. groves beach sources quality greenery Scenario A In scenario C the environmental impact Hotel zone of the development is generally less Urban shape strong than in the other scenarios (in the Other settlements hotel zone even the favourable effects Mobility can be expected) but it affects a much Airport greater area. The pattern of dispersed Urban utilities tourism will affect above all the natural Scenario B areas south of Cancun - the mangroves, Hotel zone forest, reef and beaches although Urban shape probably not so badly as in the scenario Other settlements

A. The necessary mobility increase will Mobility still have strong effect on the quality of Airport life. Urban utilities

Scenario C

Hotel zone Impact on environmental factors Urban shape

Other settlements Factors related to quality of life Mobility (especially the levels of noise and air Airport quality) are most strongly threatened by Urban utilities the developmental forces within all scenarios. The adverse effects

39 accumulate also on the lagoon in the Scenario A, the forest in Scenarios A and B and all environmental variables Potental damage Wind Flooding Storm surge Scenario A outside the city in the Scenario C. Hotel zone

An analysis of the hurricane impact Urban shape matrix shows that the biggest potential Other settlements damage should be expected within the Mobility Scenario A due to the concentration of Airport growth adjacent to the ocean. Among Urban utilities devastating hurricane powers, the strong Scenario B winds and flooding can affect the whole Hotel zone area of Benito Juarez municipality while Urban shape only the coastal strip is prone to the Other settlements storm surge. From this point of view Mobility Scenarios A and C, developing tourist Airport activities in this area, are almost equally Urban utilities little resistant in the case of the next Scenario C hurricane. The potentiality of damage Hotel zone from flooding depends on the size of the Urban shape surface prone to such disaster so it is Other settlements the greatest in the Scenario B, what Mobility results from increase in the built-up area Less More Airport and possibility of affecting the greater Urban utilities utilities network.

40 Hurricane Wilma

A brief history of Hurricane Wilma According to the official 'report1' issued Overland, it quickly lost some of its by the NOAA National Hurricane Center: power, dropping first to a category 3 and On October 14, 2005, a large monsoon- "In a span of just 24 hours, Wilma had finally to a category 2, still a large and like system over the entire Caribbean intensified from a 60 kt2 tropical storm to powerful hurricane, before passing and an upper level cyclone over the a 150 kt category 5 hurricane, an northward and out Mexico early on 23 southwest Atlantic spawned a low unprecedented event for Atlantic October. Illustration 1 shows the track of pressure disturbance near . By cyclones…During the strengthening the storm and its maximum wind speed October 15th, the storm was designated episode, Air Force reconnaissance as it crossed over Mexico. a tropical depression centered 190 observations indicated that the eye of nautical miles east-southeast of Grand the storm contracted to a diameter of 2 Although Wilma's intensity weakened Cayman Island. Moving slowly and n mi3; this is the smallest eye known to once inland, the storm had been erratically westward, the storm slowly National Hurricane Center staff."4 undergoing a cycle of eyewall strengthened and was designated replacement prior to making landfall and tropical storm Wilma on 17 October. Fortunately, this extremely violent had formed a double eyewall structure Then turning northward, on 18 October, category 5 storm abated somewhat due that was clearly visible on local radar. the growing storm was designated a to the effect of other weather systems This unusual structure (not illustrated in hurricane, and within a few hours Wilma over the Gulf of Mexico. Then, it turned the following discussions of wind) underwent the most remarkable northward and at 2145 UTC October subjected the coast of Quintana Roo to intensification ever recorded. Between 21st, the eye of this strong category 4 four eyewall passes rather than the 11PM UTF on 18 October and 5AM UTF storm made land fall on Cozumel Island. normal two and led to a doubling in size on 19 October the sustained wind speed Six hours later the hurricane center of the area affected by the hurricane increased from 109 MPH to an amazing crossed to the coast of the Yucatan force winds5. 172 MPH, peaking 3 hours later at 175 Peninsula, in the vicinity of Puerto MPH over open water. Morelos.

1 Pasch, Richard J., Blake, Eric S., Cobb III, Hugh, D. and Roberts, David ,P., "Tropical Cyclone Report, Hurricane Wilma, 15 - 5 National HurricaneCenter release 11 PM EDT SAT OCT 22 2005 25 October 2005", NOAA National Hurricane Center, 12 January 2006. THE CENTER OF WILMA HAS MOVED OFF OF THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.... 2 Kt = knots. 1 knot = 1.15 Miles per hour = 1.852 Kilometers per hour THE PLANE ALSO REPORTED THE REMAINS OF AN INNER EYEWALL...AND AN OUTER EYEWALL WITH A 3 nautical miles. A nautical mile = 1 knot DIAMETER VARYING BETWEEN 60-80 N MI. WILMA IS CURRENTLY TRYING TO FINISH AN EYEWALL 4 Ibid. Page 1 REPLACEMENT CYCLE THAT BEGAN ALMOST 48 HR AGO.... 41 Hurricane Damage Mechanisms These views illustrate Wilma approaching Cozumel and the Yucatan There are three forces that cause the Peninsula. At the time of the first damage from hurricanes: illustration, on October 20th, the winds near the center of this category 4 1. Wind; hurricane were sustained at 149 miles 2. Waves; and, per hour (MPH). North-northeast 3. Flooding. breezes of 20 mph were felt in the Cancun region. However, a day later, as Wind - The flowing diagrams produced the 145 mph category 4 hurricane by the National approached Cozumel, winds had picked Oceanographic and Atmospheric up near Cancun to 45 mph coming from Administration (NOAA) display wind the north. direction and intensity at various times during Wilma's page through Mexico.

42 In diagrams W2 and W3, the wind Diagrams W5& 6 show the hurricane direction shifts to the east and intensifies passing through the Peninsula. Because to 85 mph, as the hurricane approaches the storm begans to pass over a and then begins to cross Cozumel substantial landmass and it lost its Island. source of energy (heat from the ocean), and lessened from a Category 4 storm to a Category 2 event - still a large and dangerous storm. Sustained winds near the center of the storm dropped from 135 mph to 100 mph. Diagram W5 illustrates the period of time when Cancun received its highest winds and its most severe damage. Sustained winds from the east-southeast approached 100 mdp and gusts likely reached 119 mph. Eighteen hours later the storm had passed south of the city and then up the peninsula to the east of Cancun, which was now only buffeted by 50 MPH south southeast winds.

43 Finally on 23 October the hurricane Branches, wood and landscape enters the Gulf of Mexico and headed materials also can become dangerous northward, not to return. Winds during projectiles during hurricanes; a coconut this period continued to be south is reported to have penetrated a window southeasterly and gradually declined and then an interior wall of house near from to 45 mph, as shown in W8. Puerto Morelos, as if shot from a cannon. Roofs and signs are especially Wind damage can be from debris or prone to wind induced failure. Roofs tear from structural failure induced by the off and signs and various outdoor wind itself. "It is relatively rare for glass standards bend and break. Wind or other components of the cladding to damage is responsible for most fail under the action of wind alone"6 electrical service failures during a storm. according to reports. However there was Landscape materials also are blown an enormous amount of glass broken over by the wind. In fact landscape during Wilma, likely caused by wind- damage is such a reliable predictor of borne debris. Once the building shell is storm intensity that it is one of the violated, water damage is inevitable and metrics used to categorize hurricanes on even structural failure can result as wind the Saffir- Simpsons scale. enters the structure and can cause a cascade of interior door and even wall failures. Most studies of glass damage identify roofing gravel as a main cause of the damage7. However it is possible that beach sand and gravel did much of the damage to the oceanfront hotel properties.

6 Ibid. cochran page 7 see: http://www.wbdg.org/design/env_wind.php 44 Waves - There are three types of wave were lifted by the lower barimetric Overwash is the term for wave-driven damage: storm surge; overwash and pressure, the winds were at their peak in seawater that flows over low areas beach transport. Surge is water pushed the area of Cancun picking up more along the coast and interior by the force of the storm. In fact there water into waves and the shape of the areas. Overwash was not a major are five processes which act on storm purple isobars in the diagram illustrates problem from Wilma, as the mainland is surge: "pressure effect, the direct wind that wind set up must have been located on limestone bedrock that gently effect, the effect of the earth's rotation, pushing the surge waves higher yet. slopes upward from the sea. There was the effect of waves, and the rainfall some localized overwash, which mostly effect" . Of these processes, the most The slope of the seabed near the shore affected mangrove vegetation. influential are pressure and wind. The greatly influences the amount of damage extremely low pressure found in Wilma's on the shore from waves. If the seabed Beach transport consists of the erosion center pulled water higher near the approach to the shore is deep, there is and deposition of sand along the center of the storm so, as the center of less friction and the waves do not build shoreline. It is influenced by the wind the storm approached the coastline, the up. The Seabed along the Yucatan direction and waves, and in the case of water in the ocean and its waves were Peninsula is shallow, characterized by a Wilma, the highest winds occurred from higher. In addition the friction of the gentle rise approaching the shore. With the east southeast, which resulted in the waves piled the water up, and as seen this seabed condition, surge builds into scouring of sand along the northern in the preceeding diagrams Wilma large powerful waves, with the potential reaches of the coastline - this effect was produced very high winds. Wind for great damage to structures near the especially evident along the Barrier direction also pushes waves higher, an shore. Mitigating this situation are island off of Cancun, and sand effect termed 'wind set-up', so that offshore reefs, which allow waves to deposition at southerly locations along waves are higher downwind and lower break, losing much of their power. Off the coast. In Puerto Morelos, several at upwind locations. If we refer back to the barrier island at Cancun, there are small piers are now buried in sand. diagram W5, we can imagine the surge no reefs - the waves build and roll in Besides causing the obvious damage to hitting the Cancun region. The storm unabated. But south of Cancun, the swimming beaches, erosion exposed center was near by, so the water levels offshore reefs protect shore properties. foundations in some locations.

45 Flooding - Rainfall on the Yucatan which also affect the regions response Peninsula from Wilma ranged from 9 to to flooding. Map 1, a new map produced 14 inches. As the soil is thin and the as part of the UTF based on original underlying geology consists of fractured, research, displays a series of three sets but only moderately porous, limestone, of dunes is located along the coast line. water drained slowly in many locations. Farthest to the right is today's narrow In urban areas, consisting of large dune band and next to it in light green amount of impervious surfaces, natural lies today's existing mangrove swamps. drainage was further challenged by the To the east of today's mangrove higher amounts of run-off. Flooding was fisheries, exporters of organic matter to swamps are located two elevated a major problem. adjacent coastal food chains, and ridgelines made of ancient dunes. These enormous sources of valuable nutrients. are shown in darker shades of yellow. However, a major factor contributing to Their physical stability helps to prevent Behind each of these ancient dune the extent, duration and damage shoreline erosion, shielding inland areas systems are low-lying areas, the resulting from flooding was the natural from severe damage during hurricanes fossilized remains of ancient mangrove topography of the region. Along the and tidal waves." swamps. These areas are shown in existing coast line are dunes, built of shades of darker green. All the fossil sand deposited by storms. Behind the While providing a buffer from surge, strandline and mangrove units were dunes lie Mangrove swamps, coastal mangrove swamps also absorb runoff formed during Pleistocene wetlands important to the marine and shallow percolation from the Interglaciations when the sea level was ecological system that extends to the mainland, and act as short acting equal to, or higher, than the modern offshore reefs. retention ponds, as the outlets from the level. The one nearest the highway mangrove swamps is overwhelmed by (strandline and mangrove couplet) "The importance of mangrove swamps the water. formed during the last interglacial which has been well established. They function was centered at 125 thousand years as nurseries for shrimp and recreational But there are historic dunes and ago. The other couplets likely formed mangrove swamps, now fossilized, 46 during earlier interglaciations but level change in the region from a variety research has not determined the age of sources, including US EPA , and from these units. published reports . However much of the actual data was collected over a period Flood water falling behind the fossil of time which makes interpretation dunes is collected and held in the lower unreliable . As a result it was thought ancient mangrove areas. To drain, flood prudent to reply on global coastal water must slowly percolate though the average of 3.7 mm/yr obtained by fossilized sand dunes, a process which Holgate and Woodworth 2004 (GRL 31, can take several days or more. L07305) as the best estimate for the Therefore, the ancient mangrove areas Peninsula. If this rate continues some act as a reservoir for flood waters. sources project "a sea level rise of 0.09 to 0.88 m for 1990 to 2100, with a Sea Level Rise -An important issue to central value of 0.48 m" . Developments consider in this discussion of hurricane along the beachfront coastal areas need damage is that the water level in the to take sea level rise and its possible ocean is rising. This is not a new contribution to hurricane damage into phenomenon, the level of the ocean has serious consideration. risen approximately 120 meters in the last 18,000 years, as water stored as ice in glaciers slowly melted. However, after an estimated 3000 years with little change in the oceans, a renewed rate of rise has been observed since 1900. The planning Team secured information and actual measurement data about sea

47 Planning Considerations to Mitigate Future Hurricane Damage

Wind - First, of all it is important to note and rood top equipment . In rural areas, that the concrete block and reinforced however, it was reported that traditional concrete construction methods wood and thatched dwellings sustained universally employed in urban centers serious damage. such as Cancun region are far less susceptible to wind damage than However, damage to the glass was a structures built with methods commonly major problem resulting from Wilma. found in the United States. Photos and Engineers have extensively studied the buildings examined by the UTF did not this kind of damage and several studies display any evidence of major direct confirm that small missiles, such as wind-induced structural failures. There roofing gravel and other missiles have appeared to be a small number of sufficient strength to shatter even thick progressive failures, where the roofs hotel windows when propelled by failed and then some, or all, of the hurricane force winds . While wind borne structure failed. Such financial loss can debris may have been a major cause of be avoided by including building code broken glass in the downtown, it requirements for improved tie-downs, appears likely that glass damage to especially at edges . Despite the lack of oceanfront structures might have been structural failures, it is a good idea to the result of wind-induced changes in require large buildings, especially those pressure along the outer shell of in the urban environment, to undergo buildings, perhaps as a result of gusting. wind tunnel testing both of the building If this is to be prevented methods to and to include the building's shield the glass on new and existing neighborhood environment and to insist building need to be developed and that structural engineers perform load implemented. The only reliable calculations on the building envelope protection is to cover windows with other

48 materials, such as wood sheets. Other simulations have fairly large standard types of wind damage from Wilma need errors in their predictions, the many to be collected and the newer building resulting areas prone to surge might be codes now in effect in should be overlaid into a sort of probability surface. scrutinized for ideas to be incorporated Areas identified with higher surge in the local building codes. It also is damage probabilities might be deemed important, once specific mitigation less suitable for development. Existing techniques have been established, to buildings in areas prone to surge communicate these ideas to the local damage should be informed of the design professionals and builders. hazard, so the owners can implement mitigation efforts (such as the Another way to reduce damage is to establishment of energy reflective utilize decorate planting materials which seawalls). are less susceptible to wind damage, or to producing wind borne debris and Beach transport can be mitigated in projectiles. highly developed areas, such as the hotel on the barrier island, through the Waves - Surge can be modeled using constructions of groins. However, the programs such as SLOSH. Bathymetry effectiveness of groins to mitigate beach along the coastline, which was transport during a hurricane is doubtful. completed in the mid-1990's needs to be There also is evidence that the obtained from the Mexican Navy and construction of vertical seawalls made available for surge simulations. exacerbates beach erosion . Beach Care should be taken to simulate erosion and sand transport during several storms, varying in intensity and hurricanes can only be mitigated by direction. Since these computer implementation of set-back limits and

49 Beach erosion Overwash

50 restoration of natural dunes and their Flooding - Every effort must be made to associated vegetation. Whenever that is preserve the existing natural outfalls for not possible, the construction of energy- flood water from Mangrove swamps. dissipating types of sea walls can be Extensive construction in low-lying used but set-back limits are still areas, the former locations of ancient adviable. More detailed engineering mangrove swamps, should be avoided, studies should be made of this issue as these area capture flood waters and and possible some consideration given are slow to drain. Development parallel to removing the existing vertical to the coast should be focused on the seawalls if possible, and definitely dune areas and to preserve future prohibiting the construction of new development options the continuation of vertical seawalls along the beach front quarrying of these areas needs to be areas of the region. carefully considered. Similarly, areas excavated by the quarrying now It also is recommended that the pre- represent areas prone to surge-induced Wilma and Post-Wilma aerials collected flooding and any construction in these by IMPLAN during the course of the areas should recognize this fact. UTF be used to accurately assess and document beach transport as well as document areas where overwash occurred. Such analysis can assist to document areas more or less suitable for development, especially along the coast to the south of Cancun.

51 CONCLUSION

It is likely that the scenario that best The Ciudad Turismo Scenario is In the end, Implan's challenge will be to matches the future of Cancun results believed to be the most likely if the create a master plan for the municipality from a combination of the three government does not support a revision that considers the same factors forming scenarios presented in this report. of the current development approach. the basis for the UTF program: promote The Urban Task Force estimates that economic opportunities, social equity Therefore, many of the issues discussed Cancun will recover from Wilma and and environmental quality. on each scenario would have to be follow a continued moderate growth addressed and planned. Since a pattern with this scenario. Cancun and the Mexican Riviera is an successful urban planning strategy in a extraordinary place that has the potential complex urban fabric such as this The Ciudad de Communidades would to be one of the most memorable requires a strong determination to have an improved growth pattern with a tourism experiences; a vital Caribbean improve existing conditions by creating more distributed socio-economic base. trade centre; and an environmental strong relations with the context through And the Ciudad Central scenario would heritage for the people of the Yucatan, a clear sense of location, position and have the highest potential by capturing Mexico and the world. orientation. regional and international commerce complementary with an expanding This establishes a coherent urban tourism industry. environment that not only unlocks private sector development possibilities Population projections for 2030 based but most importantly redefines the on these scenarios range from regional center structure with the 1,500,000 to 2,000,000 but the density creation of a coherent public place that would vary considerably, with the "mass enhances the activity of its residents and tourism" model showing the highest users. density and the "ciudad de comunidades" model the lowest.

52 International Society of City and Regional Planners (ISOCARP)

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