LC CHANGE / LAND USE EFFICIENCY IN EAST ASIA: THE LANGUAGE OF URBAN PLANNERS & ECONOMISTS

Professor Douglas Webster School of Geographical Sciences & Urban Planning Arizona State University

LC/LU CHANGE SARI INTERNATIONAL REGIONAL SCIENCE MEETING – CHIANG MAI

JULY 18 2017 Chiang Mai Element Map The Question

• Does the usefulness of 2-D Remote Sensing Decline Drastically in Dense East Asian Metropolitan Environments? • High rises residential & office norm; Densities of 100,000 per square kilometer not unusual • Norm: 10,000 • Human dominated Environments • Usefulness in non-urban environments clear The Argument

• Transport (followed by thermal power & industry) often leading cause of GHG Emissions / Conventional Pollution, the Surface Characteristics of a City are of lessor importance • A Road Arterial may cover little land, but its impact depends on #, technology, capacity utilization of vehicles, etc. • Of Course, Reflective Characteristics, Carbon Uptake Matter BUT • A Central Business District with each hi-rise housing 20,000 workers has a vastly different carbon footprint than a 5 story walkup • High Rise Housing: FAR, Construction Materials, Avg Apartment Size, Inhabitants per Unit, etc. The Argument (Cont)

• Some Surfaces, e.g., Green Space, may appear positive in terms of Atmospheric Impacts but can be very destructive land uses, e.g., green belts, large parks • May be better to displace most green space out of city • Classic Land Efficiency Studies use RS Imagery sparingly, More Concern with Land Activity, e.g., China Urban Land Use Efficiency Study, Alain Bertaud’s WB Study: GHG Emissions, Urban Mobility and Efficiency of Urban Morphology: A Hypothesis • IN SUM: Planners / Economists care more about land activity & dynamics not apparent surface use Peripheral Form

 Land Readjustment: Urban Villages in Peri- Urban: 690K People; Mixed with Rollout • Learned from Informal Land Readjustment Processes • Compromise Between Market and Government Heavy “Roll Out” Model

2011-07-17 Webster Lincoln Wkshp 7 July 11 Chengdu’s Major Development Corridors: 1978-2002

Source: Schneider, Seto, Webster. 2003 Pudong, Shanghai, China

3rd Ring Road

4th Ring Road

5th Ring Road Population Density Map 2000

Source: Alain Bertaud Transportation Matters

• Manufacturing has almost totally left cities in SEA & East Asia, making Transport increasingly relatively important in atmospheric impacts • Best atmospheric metrics generally produced by electric trains (not walking or bicycle lanes) which are relatively invisible if underground (stations enable alignment) Share of (Nominal) GDP by Sector, , 1986-2009 Webster & McElwee WB France Source: BMA, 2007

Sustainability evaluation

Performance categories Operational indicators for Beijing

GHG emissions from human transport - Total GHG emissions (especially CO2) from human transport; (Normalized to CO2 equivalent) - Contribution of human transport to GHG emissions (%); - GHG emissions per capita from human transport; - GHG emissions per passenger kilometer from human transport Conventional air pollution from - Air pollution from human transport (index: API);

human transport - Total emissions of major air pollutants from human transport (SO2, NO2, PM10, PM2.5); - major air pollutants emission per capita; - major air pollutants emission per passenger kilometer Human time traveling - mean daily commuting time; - mean daily travel time; - mean waiting time at the stations/stops for public transport; - mean daily commuting and non-commuting trip time; - mean total daily time spent on traveling

Energy consumption by human - Total energy consumption (common unit) by human transport; transport - Energy consumption per passenger kilometer; - Energy source mix; - Energy end use mix (e.g. diesel, electricity, LNG, petrol) Economic cost of human travel - % of urban GDP spent on human transport; - Congestion cost in Beijing: 375 RMB per person per month - Road pricing: parking fee, congestion fee, etc. Beijing’s population and built-up area

Total population (million person) Built-up area (km2) 1986 9.71 380 2000 11.07 488 2005 16.95 1289

Source: China Urban Statistical Yearbook 1987, 2001, 2006

Change of residents’ travel mode share in Beijing

Year Bus MTR Taxi Private car Shuttle bus Bicycle Total 1986 29.31% 0.36% 5.24% - 65.09% 100% 2000 27.33% 9.03% 23.96% - 39.68% 100% 2005 24.10% 5.70% 7.60% 29.80% 2.50% 30.30% 100% 2008 36.8% 7.40% 33.60% - 20.30% 1-4, 2009 29.10% 8.20% 7.20% 33.90% - 19.70%

Source: Mao, 2008; Jinghua Times, Jul. 3rd, 2009 Bogota Road Overpass: Naples, FL

Source: MCM Toronto’s Transit Oriented CBD: The City Goes Underground

All Major Buildings are connected to subway FIRST CANADIAN PLACE SHOPPING stations by underground CENTER pathways lined with retailing, services

CHINA Emulating by Decree Green Space? • Generally large patch green space regarded as “inefficient”, exempt signature parks, e.g., Lumpini Park in Bangkok, Central Park NYC • Green belts are a “no no” • Land inefficient, including GHG emissions because • Leaping Over Effects • Usually do not align with Ecological Systems • Almost Impossible to Enforce • Developing cities, particularly China, think “green” & “blue” surfaces create a sustainable city, manifest in ”free” land industrial areas Shahe / University Park Station • Govt Plans Schools, Parks Near Station • Rare Green Field MRT Line • Heart of Community 1 km Away Hsinchu Science Park 22@Barcelona

Innovation District ASIAURB TEAM Quito: The Airport Case

ASU February 2017 Source: PADECO, WB 2006 Wedge Green Space Chengdu

ASU February 17 East Asian Urban Planning Requires • Recognition that Cities are Human Dominated Environments • Density, Nodality, Variation & Hierarchy in Nodality. Contiguity, Compactness, Necklace Form • Electric Trains joining nodes, bicycle or electric feeder bus connections • Shape, Location & Quality of Green Space Matter Nodality and FAR Potential: Tianjin, China

Source: Alain Bertaud Driverless Buses in Helsinki

Source: Wonder Discovery Copenhagen Finger Plan

Source: ce4710, SlideShare, Linkedln Necklace Form

Transit City • Mixed Density • Mixed Use • Grid based • Centralized

Source: Jeff Kenworthy HSR on Sanya Edge

2016-02-08 32 Practical Implications • An Urban Plan cannot be driven by (Vegetative) Surface Characteristics, e.g., carbon uptake, evapo-transpiration, etc. • However these factors must be woven into plan • E.g. Green Space Needs to be Interwoven into Urban Landscapes, e.g., treed roads, sides of buildings • Porous & Reflective Surfaces • Drainage Surfaces (Vietnam) • Electric Trains joining nodes, bicycle or electric feeder bus connections Practical Implications (2)

• A Cliché, but True: Planners, Urban Economists, City Builders (Developers, etc.), Remote Sensing Experts Need to Work Jointly • Not Doing Each Others Work, but in Teams • Increasingly Need to use Technologies that Provide 3-D View of City in Asian Cities, e.g., Radar • Spatial Imagery Essential First Step in Urban Morphology Analysis, Non-High Rise Surfaces THANK YOU Chiang Mai Built-up Area