adapting to climate change

Maintaining ecosystem services for human well-being in the Namakwa District Municipality, This document summarises the outcomes of a climate The Namakwa District Municipality change vulnerability assessment, of expected climate change Table of contents related hazards and their impact on terrestrial biodiversity and related human well-being, in the Namakwa District Bordering in the far northwest of Municipality of South Africa, completed by Conservation South Africa’s Province, the South Africa, an affiliate of Conservation International, and its 1 The Namakwa District Municipality; 126 800 ha Namakwa District Municipality partners, in 2012. (NDM) is home to 126,000 people, at a 2 Threats to Natural Resources; population density of 1/km2. Located at the heart of the Succulent Karoo the 3 Climate Change Impacts; District is made up of 6 local municipalities, Namakwa District Municipality Vulnerability Kamiesberg, Nama Khoi, Richtersveld, Khai Assessment Project Leads 4 Ecological Vulnerability; Ma, Hantam, and Karoo Hoogland. Its location is an important feature of the Amanda Bourne, Conservation South Africa 5 Socio-economic Vulnerability; Dr Stephen Holness, Nelson Mandela Metropolitan area as the Succulent Karoo is one of only two semi-arid biodiversity hotspots in the University, Prof Guy Midgley, South African National 6 Ecosystem based Adaptation Biodiversity Institute, Dr Camila Donatti, Conservation world, and exhibits by far the highest plant International (EBA) priority areas map with short diversity of any arid ecosystem. Having explanation; both summer and winter rainfall arid The Namakwa District Municipality Vulnerability Assessment zones contributes extensively to the NDM’s was conducted by; 7 Vulnerability index exceptional biodiversity. The Succulent Conservation South Africa, Conservation International, Karoo falls primarily in the District’s winter the German Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature 8 Recommendations rainfall region, along the coast, and a large Conservation and Nuclear Safety and their International area of summer rainfall Nama Karoo and Climate Initiative Programme, the Provincial Government of small patches of the Mediterranean climate the Northern Cape, the Namakwa District Municipality, the Fynbos are found in the extreme south west 6 Namakwa Local Municipalities, SANBI, Watees Consulting of the District. Pty (Ltd), and the Department of Environment and Nature Impressively the NDM contains 105 distinct vegetation types. The Succulent Karoo biodiversity hotspot alone Conservation. is home to more than 6000 plant species, 250 bird species, 78 different mammals, 132 species of reptile and amphibian, and an unknown number of insect species. There are also high levels of endemism, with more than Namakwa District Municipality Vulnerability Assessment Conservation South Africa (CSA) 40% of these species, particularly the unique and various indigenous succulents, found nowhere else on earth. Project Contributors The world’s largest quiver tree forests (Aloe dichotoma, a charismatic plant known locally as the kokerboom) Lead Author, Amanda Bourne, Conservation South Africa Malinda Gardiner, Conservation South Africa Mission grow near , Kenhardt, and Onseepkans, and the region’s many geophytes and daisies make for Tessa Mildenhall, Conservation South Africa Building upon a strong foundation of science, unparalleled spring flower displays. The most widespread economic activity in the region is livestock grazing, with Sarshen Marais, Conservation South Africa partnership and field demonstration, CI about 95% of the landscape grazed extensively by sheep and goats. As such, human well-being in the region is Farayi Madziwa, Conservation South Africa empowers societies to responsibly and sustained primarily by these rich ecosystems and the services they provide, in terms of freshwater, grazing for Reginald Christiaan, Conservation South Africa sustainably care for nature, our global animals, and soil erosion control. Anton du Plessis, Consultant biodiversity, for the well-being of humanity.

Photo credits ©Tessa Mildenhall Vision ©CI/photo by Haraldo Castro ©CSA/K Swartz To promote and support conservation, ©Nick Helme restoration, and sustainable land use in South ©CSA/Green Renaissance ©CSA/Jacob Cloete Africa’s Hotspots as an essential element of food ©CSA/Alex Marsh security and land reform; human and economic ©CSA/Amanda Bourne development; and building resilience to the Map credits impacts of climate change. ©CSA/Stephen Todd ©CSA/Halcyone Muller

Illustration: ©CSA/Tessa Mildenhall

2 3 Multiple impacts on the natural resources of the Namakwa District existing pressures climate change impacts

Overgrazing: Increasing temperatures: The most extensive pressure Global climate change will act as a ‘risk multiplier’, on the landscape is from exacerbating these existing pressures. livestock farming and Average annual temperatures vary from year to year, although stock limits and but are expected to see a 1-2°C rise by 2050 and grazing plans exist, signs of 3-4°C by 2100. In the temperature scenario maps overgrazing are widespread. (below), all three scenarios predict that average annual This is especially evident temperatures will increase by 2050. This is likely to lead in communal areas where to an increase in overall aridity in the NDM. motives for farming with livestock are not purely profit driven and where limited incentives and economic alternatives exist. Changes in rainfall patterns: Changes in Rainfall Patterns: Rainfall is variable between years, but is expected to decrease along the Destructive or west coast of South Africa. The rainfall scenario maps Illegal Mining: (page 4), show greater uncertainty with the best Mining: Transformation from case scenario indicating small increases in rainfall in mining has put significant certain areas, while the intermediate and worst case pressure on the mineral scenarios predict a reduction in rainfall across the rich NDM. Open caste and NDM. The most dramatic reductions occur in present- alluvial diamond mining day higher rainfall areas. activities along the coast and river flood plains have transformed the coastline, whilebase metal, gypsum, and quartz mining. continues

Over abstraction of Water Resources: Most settlements depend on groundwater and water imported from the region’s only perennial river, the . Half of all settlements already use more than 80% of the available water

Increasing aridity: Natural Disasters: Fresh Water Succulent Karoo products. flowers encourage with copper, zinc, A combination of reduced rainfall and increased The NDM is a naturally arid area, with an annual Veld visitors and create diamonds and temperatures could have very adverse effects Healthy catchments Grazing & Cropping Natural Beauty jobs. gypsum etc. average rainfall of about 200mm. The area is on water availability, water quality, agricultural rivers and wetland productivity, human health, and the biodiversity that subject to periodic droughts, which can have a networks recharge Healthy, natural Dramatic Mineral Wealth devastating impact on the ability of the landscape ground water and veld provides landscapes, wide Coastal Resources underpins much of the region’s economic activity. to sustain livestock. Desiccated land is also more supply communities food for livestock open spaces and Water, however, will likely be the most impacted prone to flooding when the rains fall. with fresh water. and other natural beautiful spring is mineral rich

Other hazards: Unsustainable land use: Other climate change hazards we investigated are shown to be low risk. These include sea level rise Unsustainable land uses common in the area and storm surges, as the Namakwa coast is relatively include: ploughing of wetlands and natural veld protected by its steep, rocky, and isolated coastline. for fodder cropping, uncontrolled harvesting It was also found that CO2 fertilisation of grasses of natural products, and irresponsible tourism and changes in fog patterns were unlikely to have a activities in sensitive areas. significant impact on the region. 4 5 Ecological vulnerability to climate change in the Namakwa District

Climate change, related to rainfall and temperature in the Namakwa District Municipality, is highly likely to have an impact on biome stability, endemic species survival, and the availability and quality of freshwater. Existing pressures Envelope: low risk on the landscape will be exacerbated by Climate change impacts and agricultural productivity, in the region, will Climate Envelopes: be affected by an increase in aridity, which will have negative impacts on biomass production and water resources. Biome Stability

Temperature vulnerability Rainfall vulnerability Envelope: Namaqua biomes Current scenario Current Current scenario

Envelope: medium risk

Temperature medium risk Rainfall medium Envelope: current biome

Envelope: high risk

South Africa has nine biomes, four of which are found case scenarios for temperature and rainfall. envelope in the north, under the worst case scenario. within the Namakwa District, namely the Succulent Karoo, Statistical modelling was used to develop a biome • Under the best case scenario, the core portions of the Nama-Karoo, Fynbos and Desert biomes. Each biome has distribution model, which predicts the distribution of biomes Fynbos, typically located in the mountainous areas, a characteristic ‘climate envelope’, a range and pattern of based on climate data to 2050. Some key outcomes of the remain within the current biome envelope. The islands temperature and rainfall values, within which it occurs. modelling are: of Fynbos found in the NDM are, however, likely to Scientific understanding of the influence of climate on • Areas with a climate envelope characteristic of Succulent come under increasing stress in higher risk scenarios, vegetation types dictates that, as the climate changes, an Karoo largely persist under all scenarios. with the climate envelopes in these areas becoming area that is currently climatically suited to one biome might more like Succulent Karoo. become climatically suited to another. This would cause • The climate envelope found in the Nama-Karoo area of the NDM is likely to remain stable under the best case • Areas with a climate similar to the current Desert biome 6 climate-related stress for some components of the biome. are likely to expand in the future. 7 Maps were developed showing the best, worst and median and median scenarios, but changes to a Desert climate Ecological vulnerability to climate change in the Namakwa District

Impact on endemic species: Showing areas of biome stability under climate Endemic species of the Kamiesberg change does not necessarily imply that impacts will not be extremely serious for a very large number of species. Namaqualand plant diversity might be particularly vulnerable to anthropogenic climate change, despite some inherent species resilience and tolerance of arid conditions. Some simple modelling of the probable impact of changes in the spatial extent of climate suitability to 2050 suggests that both generalist species, with large geographic ranges, and narrow- range endemics may be susceptible to range contractions due to climate change. For example species level information available from Midgley and Thuiller (2010), who modelled climate change

Impact on freshwater: The NDM is a naturally water scarce area, with low rainfall and relatively high average temperatures. This has resulted in a high average aridity index. Changes in either temperature or rainfall regimes will impact negatively on water availability in the region, as well as on water quality, through, for example, increasing evaporation rates and increasing pressures on groundwater resources. With only one perennial river in the region, seasonal rivers, wetlands networks, and groundwater have provided a vital fresh water ecosystem service. These have, however, been undervalued, as the region

The Succulent Karoo is one of only two semi-arid biodiversity hotspots in the world, and exhibits by far the highest plant diversity of any arid ecosystem.

8 9 Human vulnerability to climate change in the Namakwa District

Socio Economic Vulnerability: The natural resources of the Namakwa District are essential to the livelihoods of the 126,000 Institutional Vulnerability: people who live in the 6 local municipalities. Around 50% of the District’s population lives in rural communities. The impacts of climate change have the potential to impact not only on their livelihoods and infrastructure, but also on their food and health.

Socio-economic Vulnerability: The NDM is South Africa has strong institutions and powerful large and sparsely populated. This limits the legislation, setting the context for judicious effective delivery of basic services, such as natural resource management nationally. There is health care. The District is further characterised high level understanding of South Africa’s socio- by a challenging natural environment, and economic dependence on a healthy environment limited economic opportunities for the majority as well as commitment to the need to adapt to of the population. The local economy is highly the projected impacts of climate change on the dependent on natural resources and based on environment. This has resulted in well-developed small stock grazing and a declining mining sector. biodiversity management plans nationally and in Given the agricultural basis of the economy, the provinces and some districts, including the climate change impacts around reduced rainfall Namakwa District. and increased temperatures are likely to have a There are, however, many implementation challenges at the local level, exacerbated by extremely limited staff capacity and no funds allocated at the local level for environmental works. Likewise, while climate change and adaptation are on the agenda for many local

10 11 Recommendations for adapting to climate change impacts

Towards a resilient Namakwa District, PRIMED for an effective response to climate change . (PRIMED = Protect, Recognise, Integrate, Monitor, Establish, and Diversify).

Climate change is likely to exacerbate existing extreme weather conditions in the Namakwa District, with serious and irreversible consequences for local ecosystems and the services they provide. Any disruption of ecological functions and ecosystem services will have severe impacts on the well-being of people, especially in arid rural areas, such as the Namakwa District, where the economy is very dependent on its natural resources.

Adaptation is the only solution to ensure that ecosystems and human communities can maintain their well-being when exposed to the impacts of climate change. To decrease vulnerability in the Namakwa District, the following recommendations should be implemented: PRIMED

Protect: • Natural areas that deliver ecosystem services, contribute to corridors for species movement, and build resilience to climate change • Ecosystems that sustain important economic activities e.g. tourism or agricultural activities Monitor: • High water yield areas, catchments, and river and wetlands networks • Climate patterns and weather events locally • Ground water resources. • Species response to climate change • The impact of EbA for reducing vulnerability in populations

Recognise: Establish: • That poverty and climate change adaptation must be tackled together • That adaptation to climate change must be located within the broader • A strong multi-stakeholder adaptation committee, located in local government, to developmental context ensure alignment across sectors and the effective implementation of EbA at scale • That the biodiversity of the region provides the basis for economic growth and • Close collaborations with partners development in the NDM • Methods to strengthen the capacity of local institutions such as farmers’ unions or commonage committees to implement EbA solutions

Integrate: • Identified EbA priority areas into existing related programmes across all levels of Diversify: government and across departments, e.g. disaster risk reduction, local economic • Develop alternative sustainable nature based livelihoods as part of a vibrant green development economy for the region. • EbA activities such as restoration to support and contribute to local and national priorities around job creation and economic growth • Participatory processes into improved land and natural resource management and planning 12 13 Tools and resources References

References and further reading Vulnerability Assessment Technical Report Department of Social Development. 2009. A full technical report providing detailed information on the expected impacts of climate ‘Possible Effects and Impact of Climate Change on Human Settlements and Population change; identifying key ecological, socio-economic, and institutional vulnerabilities in the Development in the Northern Cape’. Unpublished Research Report. NDM; highlighting indicators for prioritising and monitoring climate change responses; and recommending a variety of EbA and other actions to build resilience locally, is available for Du Plessis, Anton. 2010. Namakwa District Municipality: Disaster Risk Reduction download at Progress Report. Consultant Report compiled by Watees for Namakwa District Municipality.

Midgley, Guy, Brian van Wilgen, and Brian Mantlana (Eds). 2010. South Africa’s Second National Communication under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (draft). Department of Environmental Affairs (DEA), Pretoria. Available for Ecosystem based Adaptation Priority Areas Map download at http://www.environment.gov.za/HotIssues/2010/climatechange_snc.pdf The EbA priority areas map is a spatial tool prioritising locations in the NDM that are both threatened by the impacts of climate Midgley, G.F, and W. Thuiller. 2007. ‘Potential vulnerability of Namaqualand change and are likely to respond well to EbA approaches, in terms plant diversity to anthropogenic climate change’ in Journal of Arid of delivering the ecosystems services and functions that will help Environments:doi:10.1016/j.jaridenv.2006.11.020 the District respond effectively to climate change. The darker areas on the map are priority areas and should be tackled Northern Cape Provincial Government. 2008. Namakwa District Biodiversity Sector first where budgets or capacity are limited, in order to ensure the Plan. maximum EbA benefit for the NDM. For more information on the Namakwa District Vulnerability Assessment Project, please contact: Overall Climate Change Vulnerability for the Namakwa Amanda Bourne District Municipality Climate Adaptation Coordinator Vulnerability Index Conservation South Africa – Namakwa Green Economy Demonstration The vulnerability index below provides a general indication of Ecological 3.85 [email protected] vulnerabilities for the Namakwa District based on selected Vulnerability parameters selected. Each parameter was informed by several Socio-economic 3.8 Conservation South Africa indicators, which can be used to inform decision-making, priority- Vulnerability Centre for Biodiversity Conservation setting, and monitoring of adaptation and EbA actions. Institutional 3 Kirstenbosch National Botanical Gardens The NDM has an overall vulnerability score of 3.5. This translates as Vulnerability Rhodes Drive medium-high overall vulnerability. Overall Vulnerability 3.5 Newlands, Cape Town Index 7700 www.conservation.org/southafrica

14 15 References

Japan Meteorology Agency. RSMC Best Track Data. Updated 21 June 2009. Storm track data from 1952-2008 within 200 km from Verde Island. Japan Meteorology Agency, www. jma.go.jp/jma/jma-eng/jma-center/rsmc-hp-pub-eg/.

NOAA. Sea surface temperature increase (ºC/year) in the Verde Island Passage from 1985-2006. NOAA-Coral Reef Watch, coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/satellite.

For further reading

Carpenter, K.E. and V.G. Springer. 2005. The center of the center of marine shore fish biodiversity: the Philippines Islands. Env. Biol. Fish. 72:467-480.

IUCN. 2008. Status of the World’s Marine Species. International Union for Conservation of Nature Red List, www.iucn.org/redlist.

For more information on the Verde Island Passage Vulnerability Assessment Project, contact:

Giuseppe Di Carlo, PhD Manager, Marine Climate Change Program Conservation International - Global Marine Division [email protected]

Rowena Boquiren, PhD Socioeconomics and Policy Unit (SEPU) Leader Conservation International - Philippines [email protected]

Conservation International 2011 Crystal Drive, Suite 500 Arlington, VA 22202 USA Web: www.conservation.org

www.conservation.org/southafrica

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