Thailand Company Update

18 April 2016 Consumer Cyclical | Retail Neutral (from Sell) Robinson Department Store Target Price: THB53.25 Price: THB51.50 Tweaking Strategy To Boost Earnings Market Cap: USD1,632m Bloomberg Ticker: ROBINS TB

We expect Robinson’s core business, ie department store sales, to Share Data recover slightly this year, due to a low SSSG base and an improved Avg Daily Turnover (THB/USD) 99.3m/2.81m product strategy that focuses on high-margin dominant categories. While 52-wk Price low/high (THB) 37.5 - 51.8 earnings may likely be strong in 1Q16, the softer estimated growth of local consumption (from severe drought and high household debt levels) Free Float (%) 40 is a concern for the following quarters. Upgrade to NEUTRAL (from Sell) Shares outstanding (m) 1,111 with a revised DCF-based TP of THB53.25 (from THB31.00, 3% upside). We Estimated Return 3% expect earnings to grow 15% in FY16-17, which implies it should trade on par with its domestic retailers’ average P/E. Shareholders (%) Central Retail Corporation 27.8 Earnings growth ramps up. Robinson Department Store’s (Robinson) C.R.G. Service 26.1 earnings grew 12% in 2015, driven by a 37% YoY rise in rental income Credit Suisse AG, Singapore Branch 3.9 stemming from the success of its Robinson Lifestyle Center malls. This year, we expect it to tweak its merchandise mix, introduce new international brands Share Performance (%) and refresh its store image – despite slowing domestic consumption. These YTD 1m 3m 6m 12m factors may play a key role in boosting its same-store sales growth (SSSG) to our conservative assumption of 2% (vs its 4% guidance) from a low base of -2% Absolute 18.4 14.4 25.6 34.6 8.4 YoY in 2015 and boost GPM by 0.2ppt. If we factor in its strong rental income, Relative 10.8 15.0 15.2 36.5 18.9 we expect its earnings to increase 15% YoY in 2016. Source: Bloomberg

Robinson is the largest operator in Thailand’s mid-range segment New stores. Robinson Department Store (ROBINS TB) department stores. As key players like Central Retail Corporation and The Mall Price Close Relative to Stock Exchange of Thailand Index (RHS)

Group are focusing on new stores in and other major cities, this gives 51 118

Robinson the opportunity to open new department stores and Robinson 46 107

Lifestyle Center malls in provinces where there is still demand from both 41 96 tenants and shoppers. We expect the company to open two new stores in 2016 1236 85 and three each year in 2017-2020, lifting its total store number to 58 in 2020 10 (including two in Vietnam) from 44 in 2015. The planned renovation of 3-4 8 6 existing stores a year to convert 10-15% of saleable area into leasable area 4 may also help boost its SSSG and rental income. We think these factors may 2 also help its net profit grow 15% YoY in 2017-2018. Vol m Apr-15 Oct-15 Jun-15 Feb-16 Dec-15 Aug-15 Upgrade to NEUTRAL. We lift our earnings forecasts by 9% for 2016 and 11% for 2017. Our valuation methodology also changes to DCF (WACC: 10.9%, TG: Source: Bloomberg 1%) from prospective P/E, to reflect Robinson’s long-term expansion plan and recurring income benefits. Our new TP of THB53.25 implies 24x FY16F P/E, Core rolling P/E (x) which is its 5-year historical trading average and is close to Thailand’s retail sector trading average of 25x. Robinson’s expected FY16 EPS growth rate is 36 similar to the sector average of 15%, while the stock is trading close to the 31 sector’s average P/E of 25x. Its share price now offers a limited upside of 3% to our TP, after surging by 33% within two months. The strong SSSG in January 26 and February is positive for 1Q16F earnings and was the main catalyst for the 21 recent share price rally. Still, we keep a conservative view that local 16 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 consumption may remain weak this year. This report marks the transfer of coverage to Vatcharut Vacharawongsith. Source: Bloomberg

Forecasts and Valuations Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16F Dec-17F Dec-18F Total turnover (THBm) 23,896 25,185 27,401 29,042 30,068 Reported net profit (THBm) 1,927 2,153 2,487 2,863 3,278 Recurring net profit (THBm) 1,927 2,153 2,487 2,863 3,278 Recurring net profit growth (%) (2.9) 11.7 15.5 15.2 14.5 Recurring EPS (THB) 1.74 1.94 2.24 2.58 2.95 DPS (THB) 0.90 1.00 1.12 1.29 1.48 Recurring P/E (x) 29.7 26.6 23.0 20.0 17.4 P/B (x) 4.67 4.25 3.86 3.48 3.13 P/CF (x) 14.3 14.4 10.4 10.6 9.9 Dividend Yield (%) 1.7 1.9 2.2 2.5 2.9 Analyst EV/EBITDA (x) 43.2 56.8 47.2 39.0 33.5 Vatcharut Vacharawongsith Return on average equity (%) 16.4 16.8 17.6 18.3 18.9 +662 862 9999 Net debt to equity (%) 5.6 10.1 6.6 net cash net cash [email protected] Our vs consensus EPS (adjusted) (%) 1.3 1.7 (0.3)

Source: Company data, RHB

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Robinson Department Store Thailand Company Update

18 April 2016 Consumer Cyclical | Retail

Financial Exhibits

Profit & Loss (THBm) Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16F Dec-17F Dec-18F Cash flow (THBm) Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16F Dec-17F Dec-18F Total turnover 23,896 25,185 27,401 29,042 30,068 Operating profit (484) (1,068) (1,123) (1,133) (1,143) Cost of sales (18,053) (19,022) (20,633) (21,810) (22,551) Depreciation & amortisation 1,705 1,989 2,230 2,452 2,653 Gross profit 5,843 6,163 6,768 7,231 7,517 Change in working capital 571 170 270 66 (125) Gen & admin expenses (6,328) (7,231) (7,892) (8,364) (8,660) Other operating cash flow 2,698 3,497 4,418 4,738 5,226 Operating profit (484) (1,068) (1,123) (1,133) (1,143) Operating cash flow 4,489 4,588 5,795 6,123 6,612 EBITDA 1,221 921 1,106 1,320 1,511 Interest paid (40) (79) (68) (45) (22) Depreciation of fixed assets (1,427) (1,741) (1,896) (2,161) (2,398) Tax paid (455) (523) (236) (696) (817) Amortisation of intangible assets (278) (248) (334) (292) (255) Cash flow from operations 3,994 3,986 5,491 5,382 5,772 Operating profit (484) (1,068) (1,123) (1,133) (1,143) Capex (5,629) (3,784) (3,000) (2,900) (2,900) Net income from investments 404 451 467 484 515 Other investing cash flow (127) (15) (442) (80) (108) Other recurring income 2,718 3,577 4,038 4,497 4,991 Cash flow from investing activities (5,756) (3,798) (3,442) (2,980) (3,008) Interest expense (40) (79) (68) (45) (22) Dividends paid (1,000) (1,000) (1,111) (1,243) (1,432) Pre-tax profit 2,597 2,882 3,314 3,803 4,341 Increase in debt 2,613 849 (1,027) (1,027) (1,027) Taxation (448) (534) (613) (703) (803) Other financing cash flow 99 211 (480) 31 58 Minority interests (222) (195) (214) (236) (260) Cash flow from financing activities 1,713 61 (2,617) (2,239) (2,401) Reported net profit 1,927 2,153 2,487 2,863 3,278 Cash at beginning of period 1,882 1,833 2,082 1,514 1,677 Recurring net profit 1,927 2,153 2,487 2,863 3,278 Total cash generated (49) 249 (568) 163 363 Implied cash at end of period 1,833 2,082 1,514 1,677 2,040 Source: Company data, RHB Source: Company data, RHB

Key Ratios Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16F Dec-17F Dec-18F Revenue growth (%) (1.7) 5.4 8.8 6.0 3.5 Balance Sheet (THBm) Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16F Dec-17F Dec-18F Operating profit growth (%) (312.6) 120.4 5.2 0.8 0.9 Total cash and equivalents 1,922 2,117 1,549 1,712 2,075 Recurring net profit growth (%) (2.9) 11.7 15.5 15.2 14.5 Inventories 1,509 1,875 1,624 1,718 1,776 Recurrent EPS growth (%) (2.9) 11.7 15.5 15.2 14.5 Accounts receivable 877 943 813 860 894 Gross margin (%) 24.5 24.5 24.7 24.9 25.0 Other current assets 312 382 748 766 791 Operating EBITDA margin (%) 5.1 3.7 4.0 4.5 5.0 Total current assets 4,620 5,317 4,734 5,056 5,536 Operating margin (%) (2.0) (4.2) (4.1) (3.9) (3.8) Total investments 5,997 7,324 6,442 6,030 5,630 Recurring net profit margin (%) 8.1 8.5 9.1 9.9 10.9 Tangible fixed assets 11,549 12,468 13,687 14,584 15,280 Return on average assets (%) 9.2 8.8 9.4 10.6 11.7 Intangible assets 45 45 45 45 45 Return on average equity (%) 16.4 16.8 17.6 18.3 18.9 Total other assets 890 905 1,780 1,823 1,881 Net debt to equity (%) 5.6 10.1 6.6 (1.1) (8.3) Total non-current assets 18,482 20,743 21,955 22,482 22,837 Interest cover (x) (12.0) (13.5) (16.6) (25.1) (51.0) Total assets 23,102 26,059 26,689 27,539 28,373 Capex/Free cash flow (%) 140.9 94.9 54.6 53.9 50.2 Short-term debt 2,574 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 BVPS (THB) 11.0 12.1 13.3 14.8 16.5 Accounts payable 4,245 4,646 5,089 5,379 5,570 DPS (THB) 0.90 1.00 1.12 1.29 1.48 Other current liabilities 2,937 3,218 3,408 3,351 3,137 Free cash flow per share (THB) (1.47) 0.18 2.24 2.23 2.59 Total current liabilities 9,757 9,864 9,998 9,730 9,207 Total long-term debt 79 1,582 1,054 527 - Source: Company data, RHB Other liabilities 227 163 295 289 268 Total non-current liabilities 306 1,744 1,350 816 268 Total liabilities 10,062 11,608 11,347 10,546 9,475 Share capital 3,943 3,943 3,943 3,943 3,943 Retained earnings reserve 8,180 9,380 10,750 12,370 14,217 Other reserves 125 125 125 125 125 Shareholders' equity 12,248 13,448 14,818 16,438 18,285 Minority interests 774 988 508 540 598 Other equity 18 15 15 15 15 Total equity 13,040 14,451 15,342 16,993 18,898 Total liabilities & equity 23,102 26,059 26,689 27,539 28,373 Source: Company data, RHB

Revenue growth vs Recurring net profit growth EBITDA margin vs Net profit margin 20% 11.5% 11.0% 15% 10.5% 10% 10.0% 9.5% 5% 9.0% 0% 8.5% 8.0% -5% 7.5% -10% 7.0% Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16F Dec-17F Dec-18F Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16F Dec-17F Dec-18F

Revenue growth Recurring net profit growth Operating EBITDA margin Net profit margin

Source: Company data, RHB Source: Company data, RHB

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Robinson Department Store Thailand Company Update

18 April 2016 Consumer Cyclical | Retail

Valuation And Recommendation Upgrade to NEUTRAL We upgrade our recommendation to NEUTRAL from Sell. Apart from the success of Robinson Lifestyle Center shopping malls, which have generated recurring income as a cushion for earnings, we expect the company’s strategy to improve its product mix to take effect and help sustain its earnings growth outlook over the next three years. The stock is trading at 23x FY16F P/E, which is slightly below the Thai retail sector’s 25x. There is a minimal share price upside of 3% from our DCF-derived TP of THB53.25 (WACC: 10.9%, TG: 1%), implying 24x FY16F P/E, which is also the mean of its 5-year historical trading average. Its share price should not stay at a premium, in our opinion, as our net profit growth estimate of 15% pa for 2016-2017 is on par with its domestic peer average.

Risks to earnings forecasts Key risks to our forecasts include a slower-than-expected recovery in consumption, delayed opening of new stores, success of owned international brand outlets after gaining a franchise for Thailand, intense competition in the retail business, and uncertainties such as drastic political changes and natural disasters.

Figure 1: DCF valuation THBm 2016F 2017F 2018F 2019F 2020F 2021F 2022F 2023F 2024F 2025F EBIT (1-t) 2,756 3,136 3,556 4,010 4,501 4,877 5,184 5,494 5,830 6,175 Depreciation & amortisation 2,230 2,452 2,653 2,803 2,989 2,994 3,023 3,042 3,056 3,079 Net working capital 648 73 (139) (190) (85) 14 118 84 55 43 Capex (3,442) (2,980) (3,008) (3,006) (3,099) (813) (838) (876) (882) (899) Net free cash flow to firm 896 2,535 3,340 3,997 4,475 7,044 7,251 7,575 7,949 8,312

Terminal value 93,468 PV 809 2,063 2,452 2,647 2,673 3,795 3,524 3,321 3,143 36,307 Terminal growth 1.0% WACC 10.9% Total discounted firm value 60,733 Less: Net debt 1,041 Less: Minority interest 508 Equity value 59,184 Number of shares (m) 1,111 Equity value per share (THB) 53.25 Source: RHB

Figure 2: Peer comparison Thailand retailers Ticker Rating Share price Target price Mkt. Cap. EPS growth (%) Net P/E (x) P/BV (x) Dividend yield (%) ROE (%) (lcl ccy) (lcl ccy) (USDm) 2016F 2017F 2016F 2017F 2016F 2017F 2016F 2017F 2016F 2017F SUPERCENTER BIGC TB NEUTRAL 249.00 250.00 5,864 19.2 11.8 24.8 22.2 3.9 3.5 1.2 1.3 15.7 15.6 BERLI JUCKER BJC TB na 36.50 na 1,659 -5.9 36.1 27.4 20.2 2.7 2.5 1.9 2.6 10.3 10.6 CP ALL CPALL TB SELL 44.25 40.50 11,344 10.1 22.1 26.1 21.4 8.9 7.3 2.1 2.1 34.2 34.0 SIAM GLOBAL HOUSE GLOBAL TB na 10.40 na 1,086 19.8 20.7 35.9 29.7 2.5 2.3 0.9 1.0 6.8 7.7 HOME PRODUCT CENTER HMPRO TB NEUTRAL 8.10 7.60 3,040 9.3 13.4 28.2 24.9 6.4 6.2 3.4 3.8 22.7 25.3 SIAM MAKRO MAKRO TB na 33.75 na 4,623 13.9 14.4 25.8 22.6 9.8 8.7 2.8 3.2 40.7 42.2 ROBINSON DEPARTMENT STORE ROBINS TB NEUTRAL 51.50 53.25 1,632 15.5 15.2 23.0 20.0 3.7 3.4 2.2 2.5 16.7 17.7 Average 14.9 15.5 25.2 21.8 5.4 4.8 2.1 2.4 21.0 21.9

Regional department stores Ticker Rating Share price Target price Mkt. Cap. EPS growth (%) Net P/E (x) P/BV (x) Dividend yield (%) ROE (%) (lcl ccy) (lcl ccy) (USDm) 2016F 2017F 2016F 2017F 2016F 2017F 2016F 2017F 2016F 2017F MATAHARI DEPARTMENT STORE LPPF IJ BUY 17,950 19,250 3,998 18.2 16.9 26.5 22.7 28.3 21.1 2.2 3.2 137.0 106.9 RAMAYANA LESTARI SENTOSA PT RALS IJ NEUTRAL 710 700 385 12.5 14.9 15.6 13.5 1.4 1.3 2.9 3.2 9.2 10.0 AEON CO (M) BHD AEON MK SELL 2.94 2.20 1,061 10.8 16.4 27.2 23.4 2.0 1.9 1.4 1.8 7.7 8.5 PARKSON RETAIL ASIA LTD PRA SP na 0.194 na 97 -36.6 -11.5 7.5 8.4 0.8 0.8 10.3 10.3 12.3 2.0 ROBINSON DEPARTMENT STORE ROBINS TB NEUTRAL 51.50 53.25 1,632 15.5 15.2 23.0 20.0 3.7 3.4 2.2 2.5 16.7 17.7 Average 19.9 17.6 7.3 5.7 3.8 4.2 36.6 29.0 Note: Price and data as of 12 Apr 2016 Note 2: Valuations in red and with asterisk are from RHB. Consensus valuations are in black. Source: Bloomberg, RHB

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Robinson Department Store Thailand Company Update

18 April 2016 Consumer Cyclical | Retail

Figure 3: Robinson’s P/E and SD bands Figure 4: Robinson’s P/E band Price (THB) P/E(x) 35 ROBINS 130 50 +2 SD: 32.8x 120 45 30 110 +1 SD: 28.7x 40 100 90 35 25 80 30 Mean: 24.7x 70 25 20 60 -1 SD: 20.6x 20 50 40 15 -2 SD: 16.6x 30 20

10 10

0 Jul-11 Jul-12 Jul-13 Jul-14 Jul-15 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-16 Oct-15 Oct-11 Oct-12 Oct-13 Oct-14 Apr-11 Apr-12 Apr-13 Apr-14 Apr-15 Apr-16 Dec-09 Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16F Dec-17F

Source: Bloomberg, RHB Source: RHB

A Better Look Thailand’s department store business still has room for expansion Department stores in Thailand are mostly operated by a few players. We believe the urbanisation trend would remain as the reason for companies to open new stores upcountry, and there is still room for more new ones in the market. Robinson has also applied a shopping centre format to its traditional department stores to attract customers ie the Robinson Lifestyle Center mall. As a key player in the industry, Central Department Store only focuses on the upper to mid-range market in first-tier provinces, while The Mall Group has shifted its focus to add more high-end shopping centres and department stores in big cities to its portfolio. This benefits Robinson, the largest mid-range department store operator, to continue its branch network expansion throughout the country by opening both department stores and Lifestyle Center malls. In the longer term, we expect to see more Robinson stores in countries surrounding Thailand, as its parent company (, the Thai retail giant) is gearing towards having more overseas investments.

Figure 5: Expansion plans of key department store operators in Thailand Existing stores 2016F 2017F 2018F-2020F Bangkok Upcountry Bangkok Upcountry Bangkok Upcountry Bangkok Upcountry Robinson Department Store 11 31 Nakhon Si Thammarat Phetchaburi 1 department store per year Lopburi 1 department store and 1 Lifestyle Center 2 Lifestyle Centers per year Central Department Store 14 7 Nakhon Ratchasima na. Phuket Luxury Mall The Mall Group 8 1 BluPort Hua Hin Bangkok Mall Bangna BluPearl Phuket (The Mall, , Paragon, EmQuartier) Emsphere Source: Company data, RHB

Recovery in consumption remains unclear Thailand’s retail sector strongly benefitted from the Government’s tax rebate scheme in the final week of Dec 2015. For Robinson, its same-store sales turned positive and grew 3.1% YoY in 4Q15, the first time after recording negative SSSG for eight quarters in row. This year, we are concerned about the country’s household debt, which has stayed as high as 81% of GDP, weakening exports (flattish YoY growth for 2M16) and recent severe droughts, as these are factors that could dampen consumer spending. The latest figures of the private consumption index and consumer confidence index also point to a decline from early this year. Robinson’s SSSG trend was in line with this, as it was above 3% YoY in January before slowing down in February and eventually turning flattish in March. We expect its SSSG to still be positive, at 2.5% YoY in 1Q16 – vs a low base of -6.6% YoY in the same period last year and slower than 4Q15. We remain cautious in our outlook on the recovery in consumption this year, due to external risk factors like weak consumption and high household debt, among others.

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Robinson Department Store Thailand Company Update

18 April 2016 Consumer Cyclical | Retail

Figure 6: Thailand’s private consumption index Figure 7: Thailand’s consumer confidence index Private Consumption Index % YoY growth - RHS 90 120 16.0% 85 14.0% 115 12.0% 80 10.0% 110 8.0% 75 105 6.0% 4.0% 70 100 2.0% 0.0% 95 65 -2.0%

90 -4.0% 60 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 Jul-11 Jul-12 Jul-13 Jul-14 Jul-15 Jan-16 Apr-11 Oct-11 Apr-12 Oct-12 Apr-13 Oct-13 Apr-14 Oct-14 Apr-15 Oct-15 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Source: Bank of Thailand, RHB Source: University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce, RHB

Strategies to create demand Robinson started changing its business strategy in 2015 by: i. Shifting its focus to concentrate on its dominant merchandising categories that have less competition like health and beauty, luggage, denim, lingerie; ii. Becoming an exclusive distributor of international brands in Thailand. It has five brands under management so far and plans to seek more to further enlarge its portfolio; iii. Paying more attention to market trends. These include launching Just Buy outlets that sell miscellaneous items at a single price of THB60 (c.USD1.70). Robinson is also planning to launch a mobile outlet selling its exclusive international brand products. The proposed outlet is likely to be housed in a refurbished shipping container (a fast catching trend). We think these factors could attract shoppers to its stores and help turn SSSG positive, ie to 2% YoY this year and the next. Robinson recorded SSSG of -5.8% YoY in 2014 and -2.1% YoY in 2015. Our SSSG assumption is conservative when compared with management’s guidance of 4% YoY for 2016.

Figure 8: Robinson’s annualised SSSG Figure 9: Robinson’s quarterly SSSG

12.0% 15.9% 10.3% 14.3% 12.6% 7.7% 7.9% 8.8% 8.6% 7.5% 6.5% 7.8% 5.1% 5.0% 2.9% 3.1% 2.0% 1.7% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 3.7% -1.0% 2.5%

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016F 2017F 2018F -1.4% -3.3% -6.1% -4.0% -2.1% -6.8% -6.6% -7.0%

-5.8% 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16F Source: Company data, RHB Source: Company data, RHB

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Robinson Department Store Thailand Company Update

18 April 2016 Consumer Cyclical | Retail

Outlook for international brands is bright Robinson has made some improvement in making efforts to become an exclusive distributor of international brands in Thailand. According to management, its distributorship of existing brands like Claire’s, Payless Shoes and Babyshop has been successful, and there are opportunities to increase the number of branded outlets in its malls, as well as in other shopping centres. It recently became the country’s sole distributor of the apparel brand Aeropostale and plans to open outlets in 11 Robinson department stores in 1Q16- 2Q16. The number of the international brands it manages may grow to 54 this year, from 42 in 2015. It also aims to add one more exclusive international health & beauty brand to its portfolio. Management’s rationale for this is that Robinson can operate Yves Rocher beauty stores only in the upcountry (and not in Bangkok) at this time. We expect the contribution from the international brands to grow to 3% of sales in FY16 and to 6% by FY18, from 1% in 2015, with a robust GPM (after royalty fees of 41-42% are paid). Note that management has also targeted the proportion of the contribution to reach 10% of sales in 2020.

Figure 10: Robinson’s previous format for its general Figure 11: Robinsons offers a wide range of luggage as it department store focuses on its dominant product categories

Source: Company Source: RHB

Figure 12: Just Buy shops are in line with market trends Figure 13: An Aeropostale outlet in Thailand

Source: Company Source: RHB

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Robinson Department Store Thailand Company Update

18 April 2016 Consumer Cyclical | Retail

Figure 14: A Claire’s fashion jewellery and accessories Figure 15: Babyshop offers a wide range of baby and outlet in Thailand children’s apparel and accessories at affordable prices

Source: RHB Source: RHB

Growing recurring income via leasable income As Thailand’s largest department store network, we believe Robinson’s positioning in the upcountry is a robust one. Its penetration into the shopping mall business via Lifestyle Center stores, which entail medium-sized leasable areas of c.15,000 sqm, has seen a healthy response from both its tenants and customers, given the limited supply of mid- market retail spaces in Tier-2 and 3 provinces. Moreover, it is likely to leverage on key international brands such as Starbucks and Uniqlo to open more of their respective outlets to tap potential demand in the upcountry. This would lead to a significant average occupancy rate of 95% for all its Lifestyle Center malls. Robinson is slated to open a new Lifestyle Center mall in the central province of Lopburi this year. It also plans to open two malls a year from 2017-2020, from its current 14 malls in 2015. The expansion complements its parent company’s real estate unit Central Pattana (CPN TB, BUY, TP: THB60.00), which focuses on upper-tier provinces. We expect the company’s recurring income to steadily increase at 14% CAGR in 2016-2018 and improve its contribution from 9% last year to an estimated 11% of total revenue in 2018. The opening of more new Lifestyle Centers would generate more leasable income and the average rental rate hike, which management targets at 5% increase pa, is likely to help improve the rental revenue contribution.

Figure 16: Robinson’s sales revenue forecast (THBm) Figure 17: Recurring income is increasing (THBm) General merchandises Exclusive international brands (sq.m.) Estimated total leasable area (THBm) Rental and service incomes - RHS 35,000 300,000 4,000

3,500 260,000 30,000 3,000 6% 4% 2,500 3% 220,000

25,000 1% 2,000

180,000 1,500 96% 94% 97% 20,000 99% 100% 1,000 140,000 500

15,000 100,000 0 2014 2015 2016F 2017F 2018F 2014 2015 2016F 2017F 2018F Source: Company data, RHB Source: Company data, RHB

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Robinson Department Store Thailand Company Update

18 April 2016 Consumer Cyclical | Retail

Margin escalation on track Robinson’s profitability margins continued to expand last year despite the slow growth in merchandise sales. Changes in its revenue mix from a boost of high-margin private brand and international brand sales, aside from recurring leasable space income, have come into effect. We expect this expansion to continue, lifting its GPM by 0.2ppt over 2016-2017 and by 0.1ppt in 2018. Our GPM assumption this year is conservative compared to management’s target of increasing the margin by 0.5ppt. This year, Robinson would be refreshing its corporate identity to avoid being a dinosaur department store by redesigning shopping bags, cards, brochures, uniforms, and add more trendy attractions to its outlets. We therefore conservatively expect the program to maintain its operating expense-to- sales ratio at a high 28.8%, close to the previous year. However, an increase in EBIT margin would be accelerated by 0.6ppt this year and 0.9ppt in 2017.

Seeks further opportunities for Vietnam business Robinson began its ROBINS department store business in Vietnam in 2014 as its maiden venture. The company directly invested in its first branch at Royal City in Hanoi in April and franchised a local operator to run its second store in Ho Chi Minh City’s Crescent Mall. Although the Vietnamese economy seems to be strong, based on our estimate of 6.9% YoY GDP growth in 2016, Robinson may slow down its expansion in Vietnam, as it would have to spend a few years to turn the operations profitable. There is also the limitation in acquiring licences to invest in new stores. For the longer term, however, management has shown interest in applying its Lifestyle Center strategy to its Vietnam- based stores on the potential growth outlook for its modern trade business, as the penetration rate in Vietnam would likely increase. Note that the sales contribution from its Vietnamese business is less than 3% of total revenue.

Figure 18: Profit margins have gradually improved Figure 19: Robinson uses a mascot to establish the identity of its brand Gross profit margin (%) EBIT margin (%) EBITDA margin (%)

24.7 24.9 25.0 24.4 24.6 24.3 24.5 24.5 23.3

21.7 20.5 20.0

18.2 17.4 16.9 16.9

14.5 13.2 12.5 12.5 12.3 11.8 11.0 11.0

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016F 2017F 2018F Source: Company data, RHB Source: Company, RHB

Earnings growth to average 15% over the next three years We estimate its average total sales to grow 15% in 2016-2018, driven by an improving product mix following the company’s strategic changes and opening of new stores. Robinson plans to open three stores a year from 2017 to 2020, ie two Lifestyle Center stores and one department store retail mall project. We expect its net margin to grow to 11% in the next three years from 8.5% in 2015, and its ROE to increase to 18%, from 16% in the corresponding periods, due to the following factors: i. A rise in GPM; ii. Strong growth in rental and service incomes; and iii. A share of profit from a 40% stake each in the leading electric appliance retailer Power Buy as well as sport equipment retailer Super Sports, which we expect to grow by an average 5% over 2016-2018.

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Robinson Department Store Thailand Company Update

18 April 2016 Consumer Cyclical | Retail

Figure 20: Share of profit from associated companies Figure 21: Net profit and net margin vs ROE trends (THBm) Power Buy Super Sports (THBm) Net profit Net profit margin - RHS ROE - RHS (%) 600.0 3,500 20 18.3 17.7 17.4 18 500.0 3,000 16.7 16.3 16.1 15.7 15.4 16 400.0 65% 2,500 65% 14 66% 300.0 66% 60% 12 2,000 10.9 200.0 9.9 9.1 10 8.5 1,500 8.2 8.2 8.1 100.0 35% 7.7 40% 34% 34% 35% 8

0.0 1,000 6 2014 2015 2016F 2017F 2018F 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016F 2017F 2018F Source: Company data, RHB Source: Company data, RHB

Healthy balance sheet and cash flow to support business expansion. Robinson had low net debt to equity of 0.1x in 2015. We expect the ratio to decline to 0.07x in FY16 before ending up with a net cash position in FY17, based on a strong operating cash flow of THB4bn-5bn pa that may help reduce the outstanding bank loans and support its annualised investments of THB3bn-3.4bn over the next three years. Its 5x net debt to equity covenant could leave it with room to finance further expansions in the longer term.

Figure 22: Balance sheet to turn to net cash in FY17F (THBm)

3,023

2,384

1,882 1,540

150

-820 -1,041

-1,500

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016F 2017F 2018F Source: Company data, RHB

See important disclosures at the end of this report 9

Robinson Department Store Thailand Company Update

18 April 2016 Consumer Cyclical | Retail

SWOT Analysis

• Strong market position in the mid-tier departmental • Negative store format uncertain events that may affect • Able to leverage on new malls by Central Group Thailand’s • Good bargaining power as an anchor tenant tourism industry • High household debt in Thailand • Increasing popularity of e- • Expansion commerce plans in Vietnam • Introducing more in-house brands and exclusive third- party brands • Lifestyle centre provides good source of investment income • Relies mostly on third-party brands • Revenue mostly from a single market, Thailand • Presence is stronger within provinces

Recommendation Chart

Date Recommendation Target Price Price Price Close 2015-08-26 Sell 31.0 38.5 90 Recommendations & Target Price

2015-05-20 Sell 41.0 46.8 na 95.0 80 62.0 50.0 65.0 62.0 41.6 41.7 41.0 31.0 2015-02-24 Sell 41.7 48.0

70 2015-01-20 Sell 41.6 45.8 2014-08-13 Neutral 62.0 57.3 60 2014-08-12 Neutral 62.0 57.0 50 2014-06-17 Buy 65.0 57.8 2014-02-26 Neutral 50.0 47.0 40 2014-01-31 Neutral 50.0 44.5 30 2013-07-17 Neutral 62.0 57.0

Buy Neutral Sell Trading Buy Take Profit Not Rated 20 Source: RHB, Bloomberg Apr-11 Jul-12 Oct-13 Jan-15

Source: RHB, Bloomberg

See important disclosures at the end of this report 10

Robinson Department Store Thailand Company Update

Consumer Cyclical | Retail

RHB Guide to Investment Ratings

Buy: Share price may exceed 10% over the next 12 months Trading Buy: Share price may exceed 15% over the next 3 months, however longer-term outlook remains uncertain Neutral: Share price may fall within the range of +/- 10% over the next 12 months Take Profit: Target price has been attained. Look to accumulate at lower levels Sell: Share price may fall by more than 10% over the next 12 months Not Rated: Stock is not within regular research coverage

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11

Robinson Department Store Thailand Company Update

Consumer Cyclical | Retail report should not place undue reliance on any such forward-looking statements. RHB expressly disclaims any obligation to update or revise any forward- looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or circumstances after the date of this publication or to reflect the occurrence of unanticipated events.

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12

Robinson Department Store Thailand Company Update

Consumer Cyclical | Retail

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13

Robinson Department Store Thailand Company Update

Consumer Cyclical | Retail

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14

Robinson Department Store Thailand Company Update

Consumer Cyclical | Retail

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15

Thai Institute of Directors Association (IOD) – Corporate Governance Report Rating 2015

Excellent ADVANC CPN GRAMMY KBANK MCOT PS RATCH SCB THCOM WACOAL BAFS DRT HANA KCE MINT PSL ROBINS SCC TISCO BCP DTAC HMPRO KKP MONO PTT SAMART SE-ED TKT BIGC DTC INTUCH KTB NKI PTTEP SAMTEL SIM TMB BTS EASTW IRPC LHBANK PHOL PTTGC SAT SNC TOP CK EGCO IVL LPN PPS QTC SC SPALI VGI

Very Good AAV BBL COL HEMRAJ MC PG SCG SST THIP TPC TWS ACAP BDMS CPF HOTPOT MEGA PJW SEAFCO STA THRE TPCORP UAC AGE BECL CPI HYDRO MFEC PM SFP STEC THREL TRC UT AHC BKI CSL ICC NBC PPP SIAM SVI TICON TRU UV AKP BLA DCC ICHI NCH PR SINGER SWC TIP TRUE VNT AMATA BMCL DELTA INET NINE PRANDA SIS SYMC TIPCO TSC WAVE ANAN BOL DEMCO IRC NSI PREB SITHAI SYNTEC TK TSTE WINNER AOT BROOK ECF KSL NTV PT SMK TASCO TKS TSTH YUASA APCS BWG EE KTC OCC PTG SMPC TBSP TMI TTA ZMICO ARIP CENTEL ERW LANNA OGC Q-CON SMT TCAP TMILL TTCL ASIMAR CFRESH GBX LH OISHI QH SNP TF TMT TTW ASK CHO GC LOXLEY OTO RS SPI TGCI TNDT TU ASP CIMBT GFPT LRH PAP S&J SSF THAI TNITY TVD BANPU CM GLOBAL MACO PDI SABINA SSI THANA TNL TVO BAY CNT GUNKUL MBK PE SAMCO SSSC THANI TOG TWFP* * On Oct 1,2015 TWFP TWFP merged with TWS resulting in a new company, TWPC

Good 2S AS CBG DNA GCAP ITD LHK MK PATO PTL SEAOIL STPI AEC ASIA CGD EARTH GENCO JSP LIT MODERN PB PYLON SIRI SUC AEONTS AUCT CHG EASON GL JTS LIVE MOONG PCA QLT SKR SUSCO AF AYUD CHOW ECL GLAND JUBILE LST MPG PCSGH RCL SMG SUTHA AH BA CI EFORL GLOW KASET M MSC PDG RICHY SOLAR SYNTEC AIRA BEAUTY CITY ESSO GOLD KBS MAJOR MTI PF RML SORKON TAE AIT BEC CKP FE GYT KCAR MAKRO MTLS PICO RPC SPA TAKUNI AJ BFIT CNS FIRE HTC KGI MATCH NC PL S SPC TCC AKR BH CPALL FOCUS HTECH KKC MATI NOK PLANB SALEE SPCG TCCC AMANAH BIG CPL FORTH IEC KTIS MBKET NUSA PLAT SAPPE SPPT TCJ AMARIN BJC CSC FPI IFEC KWC M-CHAI NWR PPM SAWAD SPVI TEAM AP BJCHI CSP FSMART IFS KYE MFC NYT PRG SCCC SRICHA TFD APCO BKD CSS FSS IHL L&E MILL OCEAN PRIN SCN SSC TFI AQUA BTNC CTW FVC IRCP LALIN MJD PACE PSTC SCP STANLY TIC TIW TPIPL UPF VPO TLUXE TRT UPOIC WHA TMC TSE UREKA WIN TMD TSR UWC XO TOPP UMI VIBHA TPCH UP VIH

IOD (IOD Disclaimer) การเปิดเผลผลการสํารวจของสมาคมส่งเสริมสถาบันกรรมการบริษัทไทย (IOD) ในเรื่องการกํากับดูแลกิจการ (Corporate Governance) นี ้เป็ นการ ดําเนินการตามนโยบายของสํานักงานคณะกรรมการกํากับหลักทรัพย์และตลาดหลักทรัพย์ โดยการสํารวจของ IOD เป็นการสํารวจและประเมินจากข้อมูลของบรษัทจด ทะเบียนในตลาดหลักทรัพย์แห่งประเทศไทยและตลาดหลักทรัพย์เอ็มเอไอ ที่มีการเปิดเผยต่อสาธารณะและเป็นข้อมูลที่ผู้ลงทุนทั่วไปสามารถเข้าถึงได้ ดังนั้นผลสํารวจ ดังกล่าวจึงเป็นการนําเสนอในมุมมองของบุคคลภายนอกโดยไม่ได้เป็นการประเมินการปฏิบัติและมิได้มีการใช้ข้อมูลภายในในการประเมิน อนึ่ง ผลการสํารวจดังกล่าว เป็นผลการสํารวจ ณ วันที่ปรากฎในรายงานการกํากับดูและกิจการบริษัทจดทะเบียนไทยเท่านั้น ดังนั้นผลการสํารวจจึงอาจ เปลี่ยนแปลงได้ภายหลังวันดังกล่าว ทั้งนี้บริษัทหลักทรัพย์ อาร์เอสบี จํากัด (มหาชน) มิได้ยืนยันหรือรับรองถึงความถูกต้องของผลการสํารวจดังกล่าวแต่อย่างใด

การเปิดเผยข้อมูล Anti-corruption Progress Indicator

ข้อมูล Anti-corruption Progress Indicator จากสถาบันไทยพัฒน์ (ข้อมูล ณ วันที่ 6 พฤศจิกายน 2558)