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Robinson Department Store Target Price: THB53.25 Price: THB51.50 Tweaking Strategy to Boost Earnings Market Cap: USD1,632M Bloomberg Ticker: ROBINS TB

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Robinson Department Store Target Price: THB53.25 Price: THB51.50 Tweaking Strategy to Boost Earnings Market Cap: USD1,632M Bloomberg Ticker: ROBINS TB Company Update Thailand 18 April 2016 Consumer Cyclical | Retail Neutral (from Sell) Robinson Department Store Target Price: THB53.25 Price: THB51.50 Tweaking Strategy To Boost Earnings Market Cap: USD1,632m Bloomberg Ticker: ROBINS TB We expect Robinson’s core business, ie department store sales, to Share Data recover slightly this year, due to a low SSSG base and an improved Avg Daily Turnover (THB/USD) 99.3m/2.81m product strategy that focuses on high-margin dominant categories. While 52-wk Price low/high (THB) 37.5 - 51.8 earnings may likely be strong in 1Q16, the softer estimated growth of local consumption (from severe drought and high household debt levels) Free Float (%) 40 is a concern for the following quarters. Upgrade to NEUTRAL (from Sell) Shares outstanding (m) 1,111 with a revised DCF-based TP of THB53.25 (from THB31.00, 3% upside). We Estimated Return 3% expect earnings to grow 15% in FY16-17, which implies it should trade on par with its domestic retailers’ average P/E. Shareholders (%) Central Retail Corporation 27.8 Earnings growth ramps up. Robinson Department Store’s (Robinson) C.R.G. Service 26.1 earnings grew 12% in 2015, driven by a 37% YoY rise in rental income Credit Suisse AG, Singapore Branch 3.9 stemming from the success of its Robinson Lifestyle Center malls. This year, we expect it to tweak its merchandise mix, introduce new international brands Share Performance (%) and refresh its store image – despite slowing domestic consumption. These YTD 1m 3m 6m 12m factors may play a key role in boosting its same-store sales growth (SSSG) to our conservative assumption of 2% (vs its 4% guidance) from a low base of -2% Absolute 18.4 14.4 25.6 34.6 8.4 YoY in 2015 and boost GPM by 0.2ppt. If we factor in its strong rental income, Relative 10.8 15.0 15.2 36.5 18.9 we expect its earnings to increase 15% YoY in 2016. Source: Bloomberg Robinson is the largest operator in Thailand’s mid-range segment New stores. Robinson Department Store (ROBINS TB) department stores. As key players like Central Retail Corporation and The Mall Price Close Relative to Stock Exchange of Thailand Index (RHS) Group are focusing on new stores in Bangkok and other major cities, this gives 51 118 Robinson the opportunity to open new department stores and Robinson 46 107 Lifestyle Center malls in provinces where there is still demand from both 41 96 tenants and shoppers. We expect the company to open two new stores in 2016 1236 85 and three each year in 2017-2020, lifting its total store number to 58 in 2020 10 (including two in Vietnam) from 44 in 2015. The planned renovation of 3-4 8 6 existing stores a year to convert 10-15% of saleable area into leasable area 4 may also help boost its SSSG and rental income. We think these factors may 2 also help its net profit grow 15% YoY in 2017-2018. Vol m Apr-15 Oct-15 Jun-15 Feb-16 Dec-15 Upgrade to NEUTRAL. We lift our earnings forecasts by 9% for 2016 and 11% Aug-15 for 2017. Our valuation methodology also changes to DCF (WACC: 10.9%, TG: Source: Bloomberg 1%) from prospective P/E, to reflect Robinson’s long-term expansion plan and recurring income benefits. Our new TP of THB53.25 implies 24x FY16F P/E, Core rolling P/E (x) which is its 5-year historical trading average and is close to Thailand’s retail sector trading average of 25x. Robinson’s expected FY16 EPS growth rate is 36 similar to the sector average of 15%, while the stock is trading close to the 31 sector’s average P/E of 25x. Its share price now offers a limited upside of 3% to our TP, after surging by 33% within two months. The strong SSSG in January 26 and February is positive for 1Q16F earnings and was the main catalyst for the 21 recent share price rally. Still, we keep a conservative view that local 16 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 consumption may remain weak this year. This report marks the transfer of coverage to Vatcharut Vacharawongsith. Source: Bloomberg Forecasts and Valuations Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16F Dec-17F Dec-18F Total turnover (THBm) 23,896 25,185 27,401 29,042 30,068 Reported net profit (THBm) 1,927 2,153 2,487 2,863 3,278 Recurring net profit (THBm) 1,927 2,153 2,487 2,863 3,278 Recurring net profit growth (%) (2.9) 11.7 15.5 15.2 14.5 Recurring EPS (THB) 1.74 1.94 2.24 2.58 2.95 DPS (THB) 0.90 1.00 1.12 1.29 1.48 Recurring P/E (x) 29.7 26.6 23.0 20.0 17.4 P/B (x) 4.67 4.25 3.86 3.48 3.13 P/CF (x) 14.3 14.4 10.4 10.6 9.9 Dividend Yield (%) 1.7 1.9 2.2 2.5 2.9 Analyst EV/EBITDA (x) 43.2 56.8 47.2 39.0 33.5 Vatcharut Vacharawongsith Return on average equity (%) 16.4 16.8 17.6 18.3 18.9 +662 862 9999 Net debt to equity (%) 5.6 10.1 6.6 net cash net cash [email protected] Our vs consensus EPS (adjusted) (%) 1.3 1.7 (0.3) Source: Company data, RHB See important disclosures at the end of this report 1 Powered by the EFA Platform Robinson Department Store Thailand Company Update 18 April 2016 Consumer Cyclical | Retail Financial Exhibits Profit & Loss (THBm) Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16F Dec-17F Dec-18F Cash flow (THBm) Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16F Dec-17F Dec-18F Total turnover 23,896 25,185 27,401 29,042 30,068 Operating profit (484) (1,068) (1,123) (1,133) (1,143) Cost of sales (18,053) (19,022) (20,633) (21,810) (22,551) Depreciation & amortisation 1,705 1,989 2,230 2,452 2,653 Gross profit 5,843 6,163 6,768 7,231 7,517 Change in working capital 571 170 270 66 (125) Gen & admin expenses (6,328) (7,231) (7,892) (8,364) (8,660) Other operating cash flow 2,698 3,497 4,418 4,738 5,226 Operating profit (484) (1,068) (1,123) (1,133) (1,143) Operating cash flow 4,489 4,588 5,795 6,123 6,612 EBITDA 1,221 921 1,106 1,320 1,511 Interest paid (40) (79) (68) (45) (22) Depreciation of fixed assets (1,427) (1,741) (1,896) (2,161) (2,398) Tax paid (455) (523) (236) (696) (817) Amortisation of intangible assets (278) (248) (334) (292) (255) Cash flow from operations 3,994 3,986 5,491 5,382 5,772 Operating profit (484) (1,068) (1,123) (1,133) (1,143) Capex (5,629) (3,784) (3,000) (2,900) (2,900) Net income from investments 404 451 467 484 515 Other investing cash flow (127) (15) (442) (80) (108) Other recurring income 2,718 3,577 4,038 4,497 4,991 Cash flow from investing activities (5,756) (3,798) (3,442) (2,980) (3,008) Interest expense (40) (79) (68) (45) (22) Dividends paid (1,000) (1,000) (1,111) (1,243) (1,432) Pre-tax profit 2,597 2,882 3,314 3,803 4,341 Increase in debt 2,613 849 (1,027) (1,027) (1,027) Taxation (448) (534) (613) (703) (803) Other financing cash flow 99 211 (480) 31 58 Minority interests (222) (195) (214) (236) (260) Cash flow from financing activities 1,713 61 (2,617) (2,239) (2,401) Reported net profit 1,927 2,153 2,487 2,863 3,278 Cash at beginning of period 1,882 1,833 2,082 1,514 1,677 Recurring net profit 1,927 2,153 2,487 2,863 3,278 Total cash generated (49) 249 (568) 163 363 Implied cash at end of period 1,833 2,082 1,514 1,677 2,040 Source: Company data, RHB Source: Company data, RHB Key Ratios Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16F Dec-17F Dec-18F Revenue growth (%) (1.7) 5.4 8.8 6.0 3.5 Balance Sheet (THBm) Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16F Dec-17F Dec-18F Operating profit growth (%) (312.6) 120.4 5.2 0.8 0.9 Total cash and equivalents 1,922 2,117 1,549 1,712 2,075 Recurring net profit growth (%) (2.9) 11.7 15.5 15.2 14.5 Inventories 1,509 1,875 1,624 1,718 1,776 Recurrent EPS growth (%) (2.9) 11.7 15.5 15.2 14.5 Accounts receivable 877 943 813 860 894 Gross margin (%) 24.5 24.5 24.7 24.9 25.0 Other current assets 312 382 748 766 791 Operating EBITDA margin (%) 5.1 3.7 4.0 4.5 5.0 Total current assets 4,620 5,317 4,734 5,056 5,536 Operating margin (%) (2.0) (4.2) (4.1) (3.9) (3.8) Total investments 5,997 7,324 6,442 6,030 5,630 Recurring net profit margin (%) 8.1 8.5 9.1 9.9 10.9 Tangible fixed assets 11,549 12,468 13,687 14,584 15,280 Return on average assets (%) 9.2 8.8 9.4 10.6 11.7 Intangible assets 45 45 45 45 45 Return on average equity (%) 16.4 16.8 17.6 18.3 18.9 Total other assets 890 905 1,780 1,823 1,881 Net debt to equity (%) 5.6 10.1 6.6 (1.1) (8.3) Total non-current assets 18,482 20,743 21,955 22,482 22,837 Interest cover (x) (12.0) (13.5) (16.6) (25.1) (51.0) Total assets 23,102 26,059 26,689 27,539 28,373 Capex/Free cash flow (%) 140.9 94.9 54.6 53.9 50.2 Short-term debt 2,574 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 BVPS (THB) 11.0 12.1 13.3 14.8 16.5 Accounts payable 4,245 4,646 5,089 5,379 5,570 DPS (THB) 0.90 1.00 1.12 1.29 1.48 Other current liabilities 2,937 3,218 3,408 3,351 3,137 Free cash flow per share (THB) (1.47) 0.18 2.24 2.23 2.59 Total current liabilities 9,757 9,864 9,998 9,730 9,207 Total long-term debt 79 1,582 1,054 527 - Source: Company data, RHB Other liabilities 227 163 295 289 268 Total non-current liabilities 306 1,744 1,350 816 268 Total liabilities 10,062 11,608 11,347 10,546 9,475 Share capital 3,943 3,943 3,943 3,943 3,943 Retained earnings reserve 8,180 9,380 10,750 12,370 14,217 Other reserves 125 125 125 125 125 Shareholders' equity 12,248 13,448 14,818 16,438 18,285 Minority interests 774 988 508 540 598 Other equity 18 15 15 15 15 Total equity 13,040 14,451 15,342 16,993 18,898 Total liabilities & equity 23,102 26,059 26,689 27,539 28,373 Source: Company data, RHB Revenue growth vs Recurring net profit growth EBITDA margin vs Net profit margin 20% 11.5% 11.0% 15% 10.5% 10% 10.0% 9.5% 5% 9.0% 0% 8.5% 8.0% -5% 7.5% -10% 7.0% Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16F Dec-17F Dec-18F Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16F Dec-17F Dec-18F Revenue growth Recurring net profit growth Operating EBITDA margin Net profit margin Source: Company data, RHB Source: Company data, RHB See important disclosures at the end of this report 2 Robinson Department Store Thailand Company Update 18 April 2016 Consumer Cyclical | Retail Valuation And Recommendation Upgrade to NEUTRAL We upgrade our recommendation to NEUTRAL from Sell.
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