2019 Annual Meeting

Final Program 2019 Annual Meeting

December 8 - 12 · Arlington, VA THE FUTURE OF SYSTEMATIC REVIEWS IS HERE.

SYSTEMATIC REVIEW SOFTWARE Society For Risk Analysis Annual Meeting 2019 Final Program

Meeting Highlights Table of Contents Meeting Events! Most events take place at the Crystal Gateway Marriott . Start with the Opening THE FUTURE OF Council and Program Committee ...... 2 Reception on Sunday, December 8, 6:00-7:30 PM (cash bar), and continue to the closing T-shirt Conference Events/Committee Meetings ...... 3 Giveaway and Raffle (with the possibilty of winning registration to the 2020 Annual Meeting), Wednesday, December 11, 5:00 PM . The meeting includes three plenary sessions, and complimentary Award Winners ...... 4 box lunch on Monday, Awards Banquet Lunch on Tuesday (included in your registration), and a SYSTEMATIC REVIEWS Specialty Group Meetings, Mixers ...... 5 Plenary Luncheon on Wednesday (also included in your registration fee) . Don’t forget workshops on Registration Hours ...... 5 Sunday and Thursday - there is still room! Exhibitors/Exhibition Hours ...... 7 Meeting Theme – “Risk Analysis in the Data Analytics Era” highlights the important role risk analysts IS HERE. Workshops ...... 9 have in tackling risk problems and improving the science and practice of risk analysis . Plenary Sessions ...... 13 Poster Reception! The meeting will feature a poster reception with food and drinks on Monday Monday Schedule at a Glance ...... 14 evening from 6:00 PM – 8:00 PM . Poster set up starts at 3:00 PM and poster presenters will be at their Tuesday Schedule at a Glance ...... 16 posters for questions and discussion during the reception . Vote for the best poster awards on the Wednesday Schedule at a Glance ...... 18 app! Don’t miss it! Scientific Program Sessions ...... 20-26, 32-45 Poster Reception/Session ...... 27-31 Special Student Events Author Index ...... 46 Sunday, December 8 Monday, December 9 Tuesday, Crystal Gateway Marriott Floorplans ...... 50 Students & Young Professionals New Member, Student/Young December 10 Business Meeting Professionals Breakfast Graduate Student 4:00 PM – 5:00 PM – Rosslyn 7:00 AM – 8:00 AM – Skyview Breakfast Welcome Mixer and Seminar for Students and Young 7:00 AM – 8:00 AM – Lee Looking for WiFi? Students, Young Professionals, Professionals Mixer Network: Marriott_CONFERENCE and New Members 8:30 PM – 10:00 PM – Offsite: Access Code: SRA2019 5:00 PM – 6:00 PM – Rosslyn Crystal City Sports Pub SYSTEMATIC REVIEW SOFTWARE Final Program 1 2019 Council 2019 Program Committee Oral Presenter Ready Room Reminder President: Katherine McComas Seth Guikema, president-elect and chair See Page 5 for Hours President-Elect: Seth Guikema Stanley Levinson, co-chair Jennifer Rosenberg and Jill Drupa, SRA secretariat If you are presenting an oral presentation, don’t Secretary: Elisabeth Gillmore forget to upload your presentation in the Speaker Treasurer: Henry Willis Deborah Aiken Diane Henshel Ready Room (Arlington Ballroom Office) at least Past Treasurer: Bilal Ayyub Terje Aven Cameron MacKenzie 24 hours prior to your presentation . If you have already uploaded your presentation file, come by Past President: Terje Aven Amanda Bailey Myriam Merad the Ready Room to ensure it has been received Executive Secretary: Brett Burk Dominic Balog-Way Amir Mokhtari and uploaded correctly . Managing Director: Jill Drupa Hiba Baroud Mary O’Reilly Sweta Chakraborty Willy Roed Councilors Chris Clarke Vanessa Schweizer Mark Borsuk Ingrid Druwe Yvonne Stevens Mark your calendar! Royce Francis James Ede Ben Trump Dates for the 2020 - 2022 Jacqueline MacDonald Gibson Roger Flage Jamie Wardman Annual Meetings: Sally Kane Chris Greene Amina Wilkins 2020 Myriam Merad December 13-17 Shital Thekdi JW Marriott Austin • Austin, Texas Shoji Tsuchida 2021 Pia-Johanna Schweizer December 5-9 Vanessa Schweizer Wardman Park Marriott • Washington, DC 2022 December 4-8 SRA Worldwide Headquarters Crystal Gateway Marriott Tampa Waterside Marriott • Tampa, Florida 950 Herndon Parkway, Suite 450 1700 Richmond Highway Herndon, VA USA 20170 2023 Arlington, VA 22202 +1 703. 790. 1745;. FAX: 703 790. 2672. December 3-7 www SRA. or. g, SRA@BurkInc c. om Phone: 703.920.3230 Wardman Park Marriott • Washington, DC Conference Events, Committee Meetings

Sunday, December 8 World Congress Meeting Wednesday, December 11 5:00 PM – 6:00 PM – Lee SRA Council Meeting Specialty Group Chairs Breakfast 12:00 PM – 5:00 PM – Alexandria Poster Reception 7:00 AM – 8:00 AM – Jefferson 6:00 PM – 8:00 PM – Arlington Ballroom Salon III-VI Editorial Staff Meeting SRA Agenda Environment, Systems, Decisions 3:30 PM – 5:00 PM – Jefferson Students and Young Professionals Mixer Editorial Board Meeting 8:30 PM – 10:00 PM – Offsite: Crystal City Sports Pub 7:30 AM – 8:30 AM – Lee Students & Young Professionals Business Meeting 4:00 PM – 5:00 PM – Rosslyn Education Committee Meeting Tuesday, December 10 7:30 AM – 8:30 AM – Jackson Welcome Mixer and Seminar for Students, Young Professionals, and New Members Graduate Student Breakfast Membership Committee Meeting 5:00 PM – 6:00 PM – Rosslyn 7:00 AM – 8:00 AM – Lee 8:00 AM – 9:00 AM – Jefferson Editorial Board Meeting Regions Committee Meeting Plenary Luncheon 5:00 PM – 6:00 PM – Jefferson 7:30 AM – 8:30 AM – Madison 12:00 PM – 1:25 PM – Arlington Ballroom Salon III-VI Included in registration fee SRA Welcome Reception Communications Committee Meeting 6:00 PM – 7:30 PM – Arlington Ballroom Salon III-IV 7:30 AM – 8:30 AM – Jackson T-shirt Giveaway and Raffle Audit Committee Meeting 5:00 PM – 5:30 PM – Arlington Registration Desk Monday, December 9 8:00 AM – 9:00 AM – Jefferson New Member, Student/Young Professionals Plenary Session Breakfast 8:30 AM – 10:00 AM – Arlington Ballroom Salon III-VI 7:00 AM – 8:00 AM – Skyview SRA Awards Luncheon and Business Meeting All SRA Students, Young Professionals, and 2018 and *** Three Lunches Included *** 12:00 PM – 1:30 PM – Arlington Ballroom Salon III-VI 2019 New Members (badges with a New Member ribbon) in your Registration Fees are welcome to attend . SRA Council Meeting Monday Box Lunch, Tuesday Awards Banquet, Wednesday Plenary Luncheon Conferences and Workshops Committee Meeting 6:30 PM – 10:00 PM – Rosslyn 7:30 AM – 8:30 AM – Jackson Please see the registration desk Specialty Group Mixers if you have dietary restrictions Finance Committee Meeting 6:00 PM – 7:30 PM - See page 5 8:00 AM – 9:00 AM – Jefferson National Capital Area Chapter Mixer Opening Plenary Session 6:00 PM – 7:30 PM - Jefferson All Meetings Are Open 8:30 AM – 10:00 AM – Arlington Ballroom Salon III-VI Join the National Capital Area Chapter for libation, friendship, and networking . Help us decide on new leaders, All meetings announced in this Specialty Group Meetings programs to match a new era in risk science, and ways to program are open, everyone is welcome 12:00 PM – 1:30 PM - See page 5 network among SRA members . You can help shape the and encouraged to attend . Pickup your box lunch by the SRA registration desk future of the chapter and play a role yourself .

Final Program 3 2019 Specialty Group Winners Student and International Travel Award Winners

Advanced Materials and Technologies Puneet Agarwal Chase Golden Cass McAllister Thelma Ameh Azin Al Kajbaf Nick Gray Nikki McClaran Applied Risk Management Thelma Ameh Joshua Hall Somayeh Mohammadi Julia Coxen Ridwan Al Aziz Charlotte Heinzlef Sanja Mrksic Kovacevic Decision Analysis and Risk Jason Bassett Alvaro Javier Hernandez Riley Mulhern Kyle Hunt Jessica Boakye Joel Hirales-Rochin Renee Obringer Dose-Response Marta Bonato Kelsey Hollenbach Chuanshen Qin Dienye Tolofari Zheng Zhou Liton Chakraborty Emily Howell Alex Segr̬ Cohen Hung Wei Chao Shao-Zu Huang Abinaya Sekar Engineering and Infrastructure Riley Mulhern Vincent Chigor Kyle Hunt Julia Smachylo Exposure Assessment Ting-Hsuan Chou Matthew Joyner Anna Sperotto Mona Dai Mona Dai Elnaz Kabir Anne St Clair Foundational Issues in Risk Analysis Giorgio Di Tizio Shraddha Karanth Danyelle Stringari Elnaz Kabir Onay Burak Dogan Katarzyna Klasa Pooja Suresh Microbial Risk Analysis Steven Eikenbary Corrado Lanera Dienye Tolofari Chase Golden Winifred Ekezie Xue Lei Neha Tyagi Occupational Health and Safety Afokeoghene Ekiugbo Jia-Ru Lin Hanne Van Den Berg Huang Shao-Zu Herman Elgueta Zhuling Liu Liam Wells Resilience Analysis Kaveh Faraji Najarkolaie Kang-Yong Liu Tim Williams Katarzyna Klasa Henry Finn Sixiao Liu Jody Chin Sing Wong Risk and Development Aaron Fister Tom Logan Zeinab Y . Jasour Winifred Ekezie Sydney Forde Din Kuei Lu Takahiro Yabe Risk Policy & Law Stephanie Galaitsi En-Hsuan Lu Hwa-Lung Yu Nick Gray Eleni Galata Bickell Burhan Mamajiwala Yangjunna Zhang Security & Defense Shubhangi Gokhale Deniz Marti Zheng Zhou Xue Lei

4 Society For Risk Analysis Annual Meeting Committee Meetings and Events

Specialty Group Meetings Specialty Group Mixers Monday, December 9 - 12:10-1:25 PM Tuesday, December 10 - 6:00-7:30 PM All specialty group meetings will take place during lunch time . Pick up your box Mixer 1 - DRSG, MRASG, EASG, ARMSG – Skyview lunch near the registration desk and attend the meeting(s) of your choice . Mixer 2 - SDSG, DARSG, EISG, FRASG - Lee Mixer 3 - ERASG, RCSG, OHSSG, RASG – Jackson 12:10-12:45 PM Mixer 4 - EBASG, AMTSG, RDSG – Madison Dose Response (DRSG) – Salon A Mixer 5 - RPLSG – Offsite at the National Press Club in Washington, DC Economics & Benefits Analysis (EBASG) – Salon B Occupational Health & Safety (OHSSG) – Salon C Decision Analysis & Risk (DARSG) – Salon FG Security & Defense (SDSG) – Salon H Ecological Risk Assessment (ERASG) – Salon K Foundational Issues in Risk Analysis (FRASG) – Salon 1 Key to Specialty Group Designations Risk, Policy & Law (RPLSG) – Salon 2 AMTSG = Advanced Materials and FRASG = Foundational Issues in Risk 12:50-1:25 PM Technologies Analysis Exposure Assessment (EASG) – Salon A ARMSG = Applied Risk Management MRASG = Microbial Risk Analysis Risk & Development (RDSG) – Salon B DARSG = Decision Analysis and Risk OHSSG = Occupational Health & Safety Applied Risk Management (ARMSG) – Salon C DRSG = Dose-Response RASG = Resilience Analysis Risk Communication (RCSG) – Salon FG EASG = Exposure Assessment RCSG = Risk Communication Advanced Materials and Technologies (AMTSG) – Salon H EBASG = Economics & Benefits Analysis RDSG = Risk & Development Resilience Analysis Specialty Group Meeting (RASG) – Salon J EISG = Engineering and Infrastructure RPLSG = Risk, Policy and Law Engineering & Infrastructure (EISG) – Salon K ERASG - Ecological Risk Assessment SDSG = Security and Defense Microbial Risk Analysis (MRASG) – Salon 1

Speaker Ready Room Hours Registration Desk Hours Arlington Ballroom Office Arlington Ballroom Foyer Sunday, December 8 ...... 3:00 PM – 8:00 PM Sunday, December 8...... 4:00 PM – 6:30 PM Monday, December 9 ...... 7:00 AM – 5:00 PM Monday, December 9...... 7:00 AM – 5:00 PM Tuesday, December 10 ...... 7:00 AM – 5:00 PM Tuesday, December 10...... 8:00 AM – 5:00 PM Wednesday, December 11 ...... 7:00 AM – Noon Wednesday, December 11...... 8:00 AM – 5:00 PM

Final Program 5

CYBER+INFRASTRUCTURE SILVER BRONZE Thank youThank to our sponsors to our June 2017 June | ISSN 1867-299X ISSN Issue 2 Issue | Discounts for Society for Risk Analysis members: SRA members print personal receive subscriptions for $60 / £40 / €50 Email [email protected] to sign up Volume 8 Volume At the Intersection of Global Law, Science and Policy Science At the Law, Intersection Global of EUROPEAN JOURNAL RISK OF REGULATION Cambridge.org/EJRR European Journal of Risk Regulation is an European forum bringing together interdisciplinary legal practitioners, academics, risk analysts and policymakers in a dialogue on how risks to individuals’ health, safety and the policy across regulated are environment wide scope The journal’s domains globally. encourages exploration of public health, aspects of safety and environmental pharmaceuticals, food and other consumer alongside a wider interpretation products regulation, of risk, which includes financial risks, natural disasters technology-related and terrorism. Editor: Alberto Alemanno, HEC Paris, France Celebrating Celebrating 10 years!

EUROPEAN JOURNAL OF RISK REGULATION Volume 8 | Issue 2 | June 2017 For full list of articles see Table of Contents EUROPEAN JOURNAL RISK OF REGULATION Articles The ‘Likeness’ of E-Cigarettes and Cigarettes in the WTO Marina Foltea and AnnaThe Regulatory Markitanova Framing of Nanotechnology as ‘Incremental’ or ‘Radical’ Innovation Stijn Smismans and ElenCan ‘Better Regulation’ in the European Union really Be a Servant Stokesof Technocracy? Morten Jarlbaek Pedersen At the Intersection of Global ScienceLaw, and Policy SpecialIssue theon Implementation in Europethe of WHO RecommendationsFoodon Marketingto Children Edited by: Amandine Garde Contributors: Gerard Hastings, Amandine Garde, Godfrey Xuereb, Emma Boyland, Mimi Tatlow-Golden, Bill Jeffery, Neville Rigby, Oliver Bartlett, Sue Davies, Jane Landon, Katharina O’Cathaoir, Marie Vaale-Halberg, Hedda Bjøralt Roald, Marine Friant-Perrot, Anaëlle Chansay, Seamus Byrne, Nikhil Gokani and Ben Murphy cambridge/core/ejrr Cambridge Core Cambridge journal this about furtherFor information please go to the journal website at: Exhibitors

International Society of Exposure Science (ISES) Exhibition – Arlington & Grand Ballroom Foyer 7304 W 130th Street, Suite 370 Overland Park, KS 66213 Monday, December 9 ...... 10:00 . . AM - 3:30 PM 800-869-1551 Poster Reception ...... 6:00 PM - 8:00 PM www intlexposurescience. or. g Arlington Ballroom, Salon III-VI The International Society of Exposure Science (ISES) promotes and advances exposure Tuesday, December 10 ...... 9:30 . . AM - 4:00 PM science as it relates to the complex inter-relationships between human populations, Wednesday, December 11 ...... 9:30 . . AM - 4:00 PM communities, ecosystems, wildlife, and chemical, biological, and physical agents, and non-chemical stressors . ISES members have diverse expertise and training in biological, physical, environmental, and social sciences, as well as various engineering disciplines . ISES’ multidisciplinary expertise and international reach make it the premiere profes- Evidence Partners Silver Sponsor sional society for practitioners associated with all aspects of exposure science . 505 March Road, Suite 450 Kanata, ON K2K 3A4 Canada 613-212-0051 Ramboll www e. videncepartners c. om One Boston Place, Suite 3520 Boston, MA 02108 Evidence Partners is the developer of DistillerSR, the world’s most advanced systematic 617 946 6100 review software . DistillerSR helps leading research organizations, regulatory bodies, www ramboll. c. om government agencies, and medical device and pharmaceutical companies to manage Ramboll is a leading engineering, design and consultancy company . Our globally recog- and deliver high quality reviews more efficiently . nized Environment & Health practice has earned a reputation for technical and scientific excellence, innovation and client service . We strive to achieve inspiring and exacting solu- ICF tions that make a genuine difference to our clients, end-users and society at large . 9300 Lee Highway Fairfax, VA 22031 703-934-3000 www icf. c. om ICF (NASDAQ:ICFI) is a global consulting services company with over 7,000 full- and part- time employees, but we are not your typical consultants . At ICF, business analysts and policy specialists work together with digital strategists, data scientists and creatives . We combine unmatched industry expertise with cutting-edge engagement capabilities to help organizations solve their most complex challenges . Since 1969, public and private sector clients have worked with ICF to navigate change and shape the future . Learn more at icf c. om .

Final Program 7 SETAC U.S. EPA Office of Research and Development 229 South Baylen Street, 2nd Floor 109 T W. . Alexander Dr . Pensacola, FL 32502 Research Triangle Park, NC 27709 850-469-1500 919-541-1552 www setac. or. g wwwa ep. gov/research. The Society of Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry is a not-for-profit, global The U S. . Environmental Protection Agency’s (EPA) Office of Research and Development professional organization comprised of some 5,349 members and institutions dedi- (ORD) conducts cutting-edge research that provides the underpinning of science and cated to the study, analysis and solution of environmental problems, the management technology for policies and decisions made by federal, state and other governmental and regulation of natural resources, research and development, and environmental organizations . ORD’s work is organized into six national research programs and five education . Since 1979, the society has provided a forum where scientists, managers research centers, located in 10 facilities . and other professionals exchange information and ideas . University of Tennessee – Risk Assessment Information System (RAIS) Springer Nature Oak Ridge National Laboratory 1 New York Plaza Oak Ridge, TN 37830 New York, NY 10004 865-576-5450 212-726-9293 rais ornl. gov. www springer. c. om The University of Tennessee, in conjuction with the Oak Ridge National Laboratory Springer is a leading global scientific, technical and medical publisher, providing researchers and the US Department of Energy, develops The Risk Assessment Information System in academia, scientific institutions and corporate R&D departments with quality content (RAIS) . The RAIS is a web-based system used to disseminate risk tools and supply infor- via innovative information products and services . Springer is part of Springer Nature, one mation for human health and ecological risk assessment activities . Taking advantage of of the world’s leading global research, educational and professional publishers . searchable and executable databases, menu-driven queries, and data downloads using the latest Web technologies, the RAIS offers essential tools and information for the risk Toxicology Education Foundation assessment process and can be tailored to meet site-specific needs . Additionally, the RAIS platform houses numerous chemical and radionuclide risk tools created for the 4303 Kirby Avenue Cincinnati, OH 45223 Environmental Protection Agency . 513-542-8940 toxedfoundation or. g U.S. Department of Homeland Security Cybersecurity and Infrastructure The mission Toxicology Education Foundation (TEF) is to enhance public under- Security Agency (CISA) / National Risk Management Center (NRMC) standing of toxicology through access to objective, science-based information on the Washington, DC Bronze Sponsor safety of chemicals and other agents encountered in daily life . Why TEF? The amount 888-282-0870 of unsubstantiated information filling internet and other sources is growing exponen- www cisa. gov/national-risk-management. tially . If you value TEF’s efforts to provide credible scientific information that is relevant The National Risk Management Center (NRMC) is the U S. . Department of Homeland to you, then be sure to like us on Facebook, Link In with us, follow our Tweets, choose Security Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency’s (CISA) planning, analysis, Toxicology Education Foundation as your preferred charity through Smile Amazon. . and collaboration center, working to identify and address the most significant risks to com, and make a generous 100% tax free contribution through our Donate page . We the Nation’s critical infrastructure . are especially grateful for your support and encouragement!

8 Society For Risk Analysis Annual Meeting Continuing Education Workshops

Workshop # Workshop Title Day/Time Cost AM WORKSHOPS WK1AMS Eliciting Judgments from Experts Sunday, December 8th $250 and Non-experts to Inform Decision- 8:00AM-‐12:00PM SUNDAY December 8th, 8:00AM—12:00PM making WK1AMS: Eliciting Judgments from Experts and Non-experts to Inform WK6PMS Health Risk Assessment of Sunday, December 8th $215 Environmental Chemical Mixtures Part Afternoon Decision-making 2 . Analyses Using Whole Mixture Data Cost: $250 WK7ALLS Introduction to Quantitative Risk Sunday, December 8th $325 Instructors: Cristina McLaughlin, US FDA; Aylin Sertkaya, Eastern Research Group, Inc. (ERG); SOLD OUT Assessment Modeling Full day Roger Cooke, Compass Resource Management Ltd.; Frank Hearl, National Institute for WK8ALLS Probabilistic Benchmark Dose Sunday, December 8th $250 Occupational Safety and Health (NIOSH) Modeling for Dichotomous, Full day Categorical, and Continuous Data Location: Salon A Decision makers must frequently rely on data or information that is incomplete or inadequate WK11ALLS Monte Carlo Simulation And Sunday, December 8th $300 Probability Bounds Analysis in R with Full day in one way or another . Judgment, often from experts and occasionally from non-experts, Hardly Any Data then plays a critical role in the interpretation and characterization of those data as well as in WK12ALLS Risk Communication and Stakeholder Sunday, December 8th $450 the completion of information gaps . But how experts or non-experts are selected and their Engagement for Improving Risk Full day judgments elicited matters – they can also strongly influence the opinions obtained and the Management Outcomes analysis on which they rely . Several approaches to eliciting judgments have evolved . The WK15ALLTH Dose-Response Modeling for Risk Thursday, December 12th $350 workshop will cover topics ranging from recruitment, elicitation protocol design, different Assessments – BMDS 3 2. and Bayesian Full day elicitation techniques (e .g ., individual elicitations, Delphi method, nominal group technique, Modeling Averaging etc ). to aggregation methods for combining opinions of multiple individuals . The role of WK17ALLTH Monte Carlo simulation and probability Thursday, December 12th $300 judgment elicitation and its limitations, problems, and risks in policy analysis will also be bounds analysis in R with hardly any Full day data addressed . The workshop will include presentation of two case studies that will include a WK18ALLTH Probabilistic Dose-Response Thursday, December 12th $300 discussion of the selection process; elicitation protocol development, elicitation technique Assessment: Guidance from the World Full day utilized, and the various issues that arose before, during, and after the elicitation process Health Organization and the manner in which they were resolved . The class will also include two hands-on exercises where participants will 1) learn about calibration of experts using a mobile application Workshops are offered Sunday and Thursday, either Full Day, AM Half Day, or PM Half Day . and 2) apply the Delphi and nominal group techniques to examine risk management issues Full descriptions of each workshop are provided . Students enjoy a substantial discount on associated with a popular topic . workshop registration .

Final Program 9 PM WORKSHOPS ALL-DAY WORKSHOPS SUNDAY December 8th, 1:00PM—5:00PM SUNDAY December 8th, 8:00AM—5:00PM

WK6PMS: Health Risk Assessment of Environmental Chemical Mixtures SOLD OUT Part 2. Analyses Using Whole Mixture Data WK7ALLS: Introduction to Quantitative Risk Assessment Modeling Cost: $215 Cost: $325 Instructors: Linda K Teuschler (LK Teuschler & Associates); Glenn E Rice, US EPA; J. Michael Instructor: Emma Hartnett, Risk Sciences International Wright, US EPA; Richard C. Hertzberg, Biomathematics Consulting; Jane Ellen Simmons, US Location: Salon B EPA; Jeff Swartout, US EPA This full day workshop will introduce participants to the principles and methodologies Location: Salon A commonly used in quantitative risk assessment . We will discuss the basic modeling concepts, This problems-based, half-day, intermediate-level workshop focuses on methods using including options for quantitative approaches (deterministic and probabilistic modeling), whole-mixture data to assess health risks posed by exposures to chemical mixtures in the the role of simulation, and understanding Monte-Carlo methods . Software options will also environment . Whole-mixture methods use exposure and toxicity data from toxicology and be discussed with case studies demonstrated in widely available risk assessment software epidemiology studies on the complex substance itself or on a sufficiently similar mixture platforms (@RISK, Analytica and R) . Participants will have the opportunity to gain hands-on to assess human health risk . This workshop presents key concepts and terminology used experience in building and analyzing a simple computer-based probabilistic model and will to implement whole-mixture-based approaches . Topics include developing whole-mixture be provided with pre-built models (with choice of software platform) to explore and scruti- toxicity values, evaluating whole-mixture exposures, determining sufficient similarity of two nize and will involve elements of real world risk assessments designed to support current or more mixtures, deciding how to toxicologically evaluate whole-mixture data, and using policy and risk management . The principles and methods presented at this workshop are complex mixture fractions to evaluate risk . The risk assessment examples developed in the applicable across a wide domain of risk assessment applications . Examples and exercises workshop are adapted from real-world mixture analyses, e g. ,. waste site contaminants, will include risk issues considering chemical, toxicological, and microbial hazards . tobacco smoke, total petroleum hydrocarbons, and drinking water disinfection by-products . Participants should bring a laptop with at least one of the packages @RISK (free trial version is The “hands-on” exercise, demonstrating the methods is an essential part of this workshop . sufficient), Analytica (free 101 version is sufficient), Analytica or R installed. Note, this workshop Discussions include real world examples, exercise results, and answers to general questions . is limited to 15 participants. Participants can enroll in only Part 2 of this workshop if so desired . The views expressed in this abstract are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the WK8ALLS: Probabilistic Benchmark Dose Modeling for Dichotomous, views or policies of the USEPA. Categorical, and Continuous Data Cost: $250 Instructor: Kan Shao, Indiana University School of Public Health – Bloomington Location: Madison This full-day workshop will provide participants with fundamental knowledge of probabilistic dose-response assessment and hands-on experience of using Bayesian Benchmark Dose (BBMD) modeling system in support of chemical risk assessment . The workshop will cover a number of topics, including benchmark dose modeling and analysis, probabilistic dose-response assessment in a Bayesian framework (including distributional BMD estimation), and the use of web-based Bayesian BMD (BBMD) modeling system to estimate BMD from dichotomous, categorical and continuous dose-response data, as well as probabilistic

10 Society For Risk Analysis Annual Meeting low-dose extrapolation from the estimated point of departure (i e. ,. BMD) . The probabilistic WK12ALLS: Risk Communication and Stakeholder Engagement for BMD modeling and analysis involves using Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm to Improving Risk Management Outcomes fit mathematical dose-response models to toxicity data and estimating the distributions of Cost: $450 model parameters and quantities of interest (e g. ,. BMD), using appropriate statistics to eval- Instructors: Steve Ackerlund, Ecology & Environment, Inc.; Dan Kovacs, Decision • Partners uate goodness of fit and compare the statistical plausibleness of dose-response models, and employing Monte Carlo simulation for probabilistic low-dose extrapolation . In additional Location: Jackson to the probabilistic feature, the workshop will fully explore the important features and func- Successful risk management and resilience depends on the design, adoption, and implemen- tionalities of the BBMD system, including model averaged BMD estimation for all three data tation of plans and processes that achieve individual and/or organization behavioral change . types, reliable and robust BMD estimation based on various definitions of BMR, and analyzing These plans and processes often fall short of achieving optimal outcomes because the individually unique exposure response data (e g. ,. epidemiological data) for BMD estimation . technical elements are not aligned with stakeholders’ values, needs, interests and priorities . Moreover, the distributional estimates of BMD generated in BBMD can be seamlessly used This full-day workshop will introduce the state-of-the-science concepts and practices of risk to facilitate the WHO/IPCS probabilistic dose-response assessment framework . In short, the communications and stakeholder engagement to systematically understand and influence workshop will provide participants both theoretical and practical skills for probabilistic dose- stakeholder judgment, decision making and behavior as an integrated element of effective risk response assessment . management and resilience planning . Using introductory lectures, case study review and interactive class exercise formats, the course “facilitators” will provide tools, templates and practical WK11ALLS: Monte Carlo Simulation And Probability Bounds Analysis in R frameworks for integration of risk communication, risk management and resilience . These with Hardly Any Data will be demonstrated using examples from successful real-world projects . The Mental Models Cost: $300 approach will be presented and discussed as a core technique for understanding stakeholder perceptions of risk and integrating these into effective risk management . The workshop will Instructors: Scott Ferson, Institute for Risk and Uncertainty, University of Liverpool, UK; Dominic Calleja, Institute for Risk and Uncertainty, University of Liverpool, UK feature applied problem-solving sessions where participants will be encouraged to share their own risk challenges and workshop solutions with other participants and workshop leaders, Location: Lee thereby enabling participants to develop solutions to current needs in their organizations . This full-day workshop features hands-on examples worked in R on your own laptap, from raw data to final decision . The workshop introduces and compares Monte Carlo simulation and probability bounds analysis for developing probabilistic risk analyses when little ALL-DAY WORKSHOPS or no empirical data are available . You can use your laptop to work the examples, or just follow along if you prefer . The examples illustrate the basic problems risk analysts face: not THURSDAY December 12th, 8:00AM—5:00PM having much data to estimate inputs, not knowing the distribution shapes, not knowing WK15ALLTH: Dose-Response Modeling for Risk Assessments – BMDS 3.2 their correlations, and not even being sure about the model form . Monte Carlo models will and Bayesian Modeling Averaging be parameterized using the method of matching moments and other common strategies . Cost: $350 Probability bounds will be developed from both large and small data sets, from data with non-negligible measurement uncertainty, and from published summaries that lack data Instructors: J. Allen Davis, US Environmental Protection Agency; Jeff Grift, US Environmental altogether . The workshop explains how to avoid common pitfalls in risk analyses, including Protection Agency; Jay Zhao, US Environmental Protection Agency; Matt Wheeler, National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health the multiple instantiation problem, unjustified independence assumptions, repeated variable problem, and what to do when there’s little or no data . The numerical examples will Location: Jefferson be developed into fully probabilistic estimates useful for quantitative decisions and other This full-day workshop will provide participants with fundamental knowledge of benchmark risk-informed planning . Emphasis will be placed on the interpretation of results and on how dose (BMD) analysis and hands-on experience in support of chemical risk assessment . The defensible decisions can be made even when little information is available . The presentation workshop will introduce benchmark dose modeling and analysis, probabilistic dose-response style will be casual and interactive . Participants will receive handouts of the slides and elec- assessment in a Bayesian framework (including distributional BMD estimation), and model tronic files with software for the examples . Final Program 11 averaging concepts . In particular, model averaging approaches will be highlighted given they you prefer . The examples illustrate the basic problems risk analysts face: not having much data have recently been suggested as a preferred approach to address modeling uncertainty in dose- to estimate inputs, not knowing the distribution shapes, not knowing their correlations, and response assessments . Dichotomous model averaging was implemented in BMDS 3 0,. which not even being sure about the model form . Monte Carlo models will be parameterized using simplified the workflow for modeling by fully implementing all BMDS analyses in Microsoft Excel . the method of matching moments and other common strategies . Probability bounds will be Recently, EPA has released a new version of its Benchmark Dose Software program (BMDS 3 2). developed from both large and small data sets, from data with non-negligible measurement that implements Bayesian model averaging methods for continuous data using maximum a uncertainty, and from published summaries that lack data altogether . The workshop explains posteriori methods in conjunction with model weights based on the Laplace approximation . how to avoid common pitfalls in risk analyses, including the multiple instantiation problem, The model averaging approach for continuous data implemented in BMDS 3 2. improves on unjustified independence assumptions, repeated variable problem, and what to do when other model averaging methods by not only averaging over a model suite, but also across there’s little or no data . The numerical examples will be developed into fully probabilistic esti- distributional assumptions . Historically, different organizations have a priori assumed either mates useful for quantitative decisions and other risk-informed planning . Emphasis will be a normal or lognormal distribution for the continuous endpoint being modeled . However, placed on the interpretation of results and on how defensible decisions can be made even when this determination has typically been based on assumptions rather than empirical evidence . little information is available . The presentation style will be casual and interactive . Participants Thus, the use of distributional assumptions has also introduced uncertainty into continuous will receive handouts of the slides and electronic files with software for the examples . dose-response analyses . Therefore, the ability of a continuous model averaging approach to average over models and distributions accounts for both model and distributional uncertainty . WK18ALLTH: Probabilistic Dose-Response Assessment: Guidance from the Additionally, new versions of BMDS have recently been developed 1) in the R statistical program- World Health Organization ming language and 2) online in EPA’s HAWC interface . The R-BMDS version represents a fully Cost: $300 customizable “research” version of BMDS, whereas HAWC-BMDS is a fully interoperable option Instructors: Weihsueh A. Chiu, Texas A&M University; Greg Paoli, Risk Sciences International for performing dose-response analyses online . The focus of this training will center on how to Location: Lee use the BMDS 3 2. Excel interface and the theory and application of the new models, particu- larly the model averaging methods . The new R- and HAWC-BMDS versions will also be briefly WHO/IPCS published in 2014 a guidance document on evaluating uncertainties in human covered . Participants need to bring their own laptops, with BMDS 3 .2 installed to the workshop . health dose-response assessment . Rather than single values for the point of departure (POD) The latest version of the software programs can be found at: www ep. a gov/bmds. . Also, users and any adjustment/uncertainty factors, the WHO/IPCS approach uses uncertainty distribu- should have a recent internet browser installed (Google Chrome is preferred) . tions that reflect the assumed or estimated uncertainties in each of those aspects . Additionally, it quantitatively defines the protection goals in terms of incidence (I) and magnitude (M) of The views expressed in the abstract are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the the critical effect in the human population . By contrast, traditional approaches for devel- views or policies of the U.S. EPA. oping toxicity values result in a single value (e g. ,. RfD, ADI) whose uncertainty is not known and for which the associated values for I and M are not quantified . By quantifying the overall WK17ALLTH: Monte Carlo simulation and probability bounds analysis in R uncertainties in the target human dose at explicitly specified values of I and M, the WHO/IPCS with hardly any data probabilistic approach allows risk managers to better weigh the benefits from reduced human Cost: $300 health effects associated with different risk management options against other consider- Instructors: Scott Ferson, Institute for Risk and Uncertainty, University of Liverpool, UK; ations . Further, the probabilistic analyses can inform the value of information associated with Dominic Calleja, Institute for Risk and Uncertainty, University of Liverpool, UK different options for developing a higher tier assessment . This hands-on training Workshop is Location: Jackson aimed at both risk professionals interested in applying the latest approaches to dose-response This full-day workshop features hands-on examples worked in R on your own laptap, from raw assessment, as well as students and researchers interested in developing new methods for data to final decision . The workshop introduces and compares Monte Carlo simulation and dose-response . The Workshop will include an overview of the WHO/IPCS approach, case probability bounds analysis for developing probabilistic risk analyses when little or no empir- study exercises developing probabilistic dose-response toxicity values using an Excel spread- ical data are available . You can use your laptop to work the examples, or just follow along if sheet tool, and a discussion of broader applications, such as life cycle analysis, alternatives assessment, and economic benefit-cost analyses . A laptop with Microsoft Excel is required .

12 Society For Risk Analysis Annual Meeting Plenary Sessions All plenary sessions are held in the Crystal Gateway Marriott, Arlington Ballroom, Salon III & IV

Monday, December 9, Morning Plenary Tuesday, December 10, Morning Plenary

What Can Data Tell Us About Risk Management? Data Analytics for Risk Analysis – Most traditional decision and risk analyses, benefit-cost analyses, and policy analyses depend on “closed Past, Present, and Future world” assumptions in which different possible outcomes of each alternative risk management action (or of Data analytics is of potentially significant benefit for risk inaction) are assumed to be known, with probabilities summing to 100% . The real world is different: “black analysis, but it comes with potential pitfalls as well . The Tuesday swans,” “unknown unknowns,” “emerging threats,” “disruptive changes,” unconscious assumptions and plenary will be a round table style discussion among leaders in biases, and other unpredictable and novel risks wrap important risks and decisions in a fog of un-modeled developing and using data analytic methods for risk analysis . The uncertainties . These are open-world risks – risks not limited by pre-understood rules, constraints, and discussion will focus on how data analytics methods have been possibilities, but emerging from a world that is only partly understood when decisions must be made . They used, what the current state of development is, and the future are familiar to many business leaders, entrepreneurs, generals, and policy makers, but challenge traditional of data analytics in risk analysis . What is the proper role for data risk assessment and analytics methods . Managing open-world risks requires not only planning and training, analytics in risk analysis? What are the strengths and limitations? but improvisation and innovation, initiative and resilience, and creation of new options and goals on the fly When are data analytic methods most useful? When might they as conditions change . How can data and data science support open-world risk management and decision- be misleading? What future developments are needed for data making? Data science has recently produced a host of new techniques for detecting and responding to novel analytic methods to better meet the needs of risk analysts? threats, from anomaly detection to deep learning and adaptive learning systems for exploring and exploiting Panel: new opportunities without succumbing to new threats . Advances in artificial intelligence, machine learning, Hiba Baroud, Giovanni Sansavini, and robotics are now being tapped by the military for principles to help meet the challenges of planning, Mark Borsuk, Anthony Louis Cox, Jr . acting, and adapting in open-world environments . Advances in causal analysis are enabling analysts to better generalize from what is known and what has been observed to predict what else might happen that has never been seen before . This talk discusses principles for using data science and advanced analytics strategically, to improve the odds of success in preparing for and responding to unpredictable events and novel risks . Speaker: Anthony Louis Cox, Jr . Lunch Wednesday

Machine Learning for Risk Analysis – Perspectives from the Front Lines The Reality of Human Trafficking and the Role of Risk Analysis As machine learning methods move beyond recognizing pictures and videos, and expand into other industries and fields, the world is going to see tremendous enterprise value created through smart data driven systems Human trafficking occurs throughout the United States that bring together disparate forms of data and stakeholders . With improvements in computational efficiency, and touches almost every commercial industry . Despite AI and machine learning techniques are able to combine volumes of new data with an historical understanding its scope it is often misunderstood and misrepresented . of natural phenomena physics to far better emulate the physical world and its interconnectedness, thereby In this talk, Bridgette Carr, J .D ., University of Michigan Law discovering risks which previously had never been understood . This is key, from a risk modeling standpoint, School, will explain the reality of human trafficking in the since ascribing data dependencies, means ascribing business value, value which will ultimately lead to new U .S . and discuss how risk analysis may be a critical and as business models aimed at democratizing the pursuit of resilience and the fight against climate change . yet underutilized tool in combating human trafficking . Speaker: Ahmad Wani Speaker: Bridgette Carr

Final Program 13 Monday

7:00 AM-8:00 AM New Member, Student/Young Professional Breakfast 8:30 AM-10:00 AM Plenary Session – What Can Data Tell Us About Risk Management? Machine Learning for Risk Analysis – Perspectives from the Front Lines, Arlington Ballroom, Salon III & IV 10:00 AM-10:30 AM Coffee Break

Salon A Salon B Salon C Salons DE Salons FG

M2-A Climate Change M2-B Symposium: From Open M2-C Symposium: Study of M2-D Symposium: Benchmark M2-E Symposium: Risk Communication, Adaptation, to Big Data: Using Risk Science Violent Crime and Gun Violence Dose Guidance Across the Assessment, Economic and Resilience, Part 1 to Better Deliver Benefits to Globe and Avenues for Evaluation, and Decisions, Part Patients Harmonization of Modeling 1 Methodologies 10:30 AM-Noon

Pick up your box lunch near the registration desk and attend the specialty group meeting(s) of your choice . 12:10 PM-12:45 PM - Dose Response (DRSG), Economics & Benefits Analysis (EBASG), Occupational Health & Safety (OHSSG), Decision Analysis & Risk (DARSG), Security & Defense (SDSG), Ecological Risk Assessment (ERASG), Foundational Issues in Risk Analysis (FRASG), Risk, Policy & Law (RPLSG) Noon-

1:30 PM 12:50 PM-1:25 PM - Exposure Assessment (EASG), Risk & Development (RDSG), Applied Risk Management (ARMSG), Risk Communication (RCSG), Advanced Materials & Technologies (AMTSG), Resillance Analysis Specialty Group Meeting (RASG), Engineering & Infrastructure (EISG), Microbial Risk Analysis (MRASG)

M3-A Climate Change M3-B Roundtable: Current M3-C Global Catastrophic Risks M3-D Disaster Risk Analysis and M3-E Risk Assessment and Communication, Adaptation, Foundational Issues in the Field Modeling Benefits Analysis Interface and Resilience, Part 2 of Risk Analysis 1:30 PM-3:00 PM

3:00 PM-3:30 PM Coffee Break M4-A Health Risk Perception M4-B Roundtable: Tomorrows M4-C Symposium: Risk, M4-D Symposium: Engineering M4-E Benefit Cost Analysis: and Communication Perspective on Todays Risk: Security, and Trust of and Infrastructure Solutions Theory and Application Technology, Environment, and Embedded Hardware in Cyber- for Natural Hazards Risk Society Physical Systems Management 3:30 PM - 5:00

6:00 PM-8:00 PM Poster Reception, Arlington Ballroom, Salon III-VI

14 Society For Risk Analysis Annual Meeting Monday

Salon H Salon J Salon K Salon 1 Salon 2

M2-F Symposium: Building a M2-G Risk Analysis in the M2-H Symposium: Protecting M2-I Challenging Risk M2-J Poster Platform: Risk Risk-based Food Safety System Developing World and Remote People and Changing Their Assessment Practices Perception, Communication, from Scratch Areas: Data, Perspectives, and Behavior to Improve Regulatory and Digital Technology Models Decision-Making 10:30 AM-Noon

M3-F Symposium: The Role M3-G Managing Risk: Balance, M3-H Roundtable: Worker M3-I Symposium: Global M3-J Poster Platform: of Predictive Microbiology Communication, and Trust Considerations as EPA Disease Burden Caused by Perspectives on Risk-based and its Impact on Food Safety Implements the 2016 Toxic Foodborne Chemicals and Decision Making Quantitative Microbiological Substances Control Act Toxins Risk Assessment and Beyond: Amendments Leveraging Scientific Advances 1:30 PM-3:00 PM

3:00 PM-3:30 PM Coffee Break M4-F Epistemic Issues Around M4-G From Analysis to M4-H Symposium: Risk Analysis M4-J Poster Platform: Risk and Resilience Management: Natural Hazards of Engineered Nanomaterials: Application of QMRA in Water & Petroleum Where Have We Been, Lessons Quality Learned, and Transfer of Knowledge to Other Emerging Technologies 3:30 PM - 5:00

6:00 PM-8:00 PM Poster Reception, Arlington Ballroom, Salon III-VI

Final Program 15 Tuesday

8:30 AM-10:00 AM Plenary Session – Data Analytics for Risk Analysis – Past, Present, and Future, Arlington Ballroom, Salon III & IV

10:00 AM-10:30 AM Coffee Break

Salon A Salon B Salon C Salons DE Salons FG

T2-A Energy Perceptions and T2-B Symposium: Systemic T2-C Symposium: Applying the T2-D Symposium: Improving T2-E Symposium: Risk Narratives Risks, Uncertainty, and Key Characteristics Approach Infrastructure Operability Assessment, Economic Governance for Hazard Identification After Disasters Through Better Evaluation, and Decisions, Part and Risk Assessment of Quantification of Uncertainty 2 Chemical Induced Cancer and Non-Cancer Effects 10:30 AM-Noon

Noon-1:30 PM SRA Awards Luncheon and Business Meeting, Arlington Ballroom, Salon III & IV Includes all SRA Awards, and the 5 Best Poster Award Winners from Monday’s Poster Reception. (Included in registration fee) T3-A Natural Hazard Perception T3-B Roundtable: How Can We T3-C Symposium: Cyber Risk as T3-D Symposium: Social Media, T3-E Economic Analysis of and Communication Bridge the Gap Between Safety an Experimental Discipline Big Data, Risk Analysis, and Extreme or Rare Events Culture Research and Risk Disasters Science? 1:30 PM-3:00 PM

3:00 PM-3:30 PM Coffee Break T4-A Risk Communication Best T4-B Foundational Issues in Risk T4-C Critical Infrastructure, T4-D Symposium: Data-Driven T4-E Risk Communication: Practices, Part 1 Analysis, Part 1 - Big Data and Cyber, and Information Risks Decision Making and Risk Issues of Contamination and Data Analytics Analysis Consumption 3:30 PM-5:00 PM

6:00 PM-7:30 PM Specialty Group Mixers, see page 5

16 Society For Risk Analysis Annual Meeting Tuesday

8:30 AM-10:00 AM Plenary Session – Data Analytics for Risk Analysis – Past, Present, and Future, Arlington Ballroom, Salon III & IV

10:00 AM-10:30 AM Coffee Break

Salon H Salon J Salon K Salon 1 Salon 2

T2-F Symposium: Advances T2-G Cattle to Kids: Applied Risk T2-H Symposium: T2-I Data-Driven Decision- T2-J Ecological Risk, Resilience, in Antibiotic Resistance Risk Analysis Risk Assessment and Making: Implications for Policy and Adaptive Management in a Assessment Communication Approaches and the Law Changing World for Emerging Products and Materials 10:30 AM-Noon

Noon-1:30 PM SRA Awards Luncheon and Business Meeting, Arlington Ballroom, Salon III & IV Includes all SRA Awards, and the 5 Best Poster Award Winners from Monday’s Poster Reception. (Included in registration fee) T3-F Roundtable: Food safety -- T3-G Symposium: Disasters, T3-H Symposium: Driving T3-I Symposium: Derivation of T3-J Emerging Challenges in An Integrated Approach to Risk Governance, Conflict, and Risk Organizational Risk Decision Human Health Based Water Risk and Decision Making for Resilient and Sustainable Making Improvement with Guidance for Noncarcinogens: Management EHSS Is it time to Change the Standard Default Approach? 1:30 PM-3:00 PM

3:00 PM-3:30 PM Coffee Break T4-F Using QMRA to Inform Risk T4-G Roundtable: Promoting T4-H Symposium: Risk and T4-I Symposium: Derivation T4-J Symposium: Wildfire Management Decisions Risk Management Analysis Resilience Observatories: of Human Health Based Risk Management - Current Quality, and Reaching Out to Methods, Tools and Results Water Guidance: Challenges Status, Future Projections and the Decision Makers of Assessing Emerging Approaches to Reducing Risk Contaminants and Mixtures 3:30 PM-5:00 PM

6:00 PM-7:30 PM Specialty Group Mixers, see page 5

Final Program 17 Wednesday

Salon A Salon B Salon C Salons DE Salons FG

W1-A Risk Communication Best 8:00 AM – 9:00 AM Practices, Part 2 W1-B Special Session: Emergence of Emerging Risks at DHS Panel Discussion 8:30 AM-10:00 AM

10:00 AM-10:30 AM Coffee Break W2-A Symposium: Addressing W2-B Symposium: Cultural W2-C Symposium: W2-D Symposium: Assessing Human Trafficking Risk Property Risk Analysis Identification, Assessment, the Resilience of Urban Systems and Management of the Risks Under Climate Change Associated with Chemicals and Materials in the Department of

10:30 AM-Noon Defense

Noon-1:30 PM Plenary Luncheon – The Reality of Human Trafficking and the Role of Risk Analysis, Arlington Ballroom, Salon III & IV (Included in registration fee) W3-A Media Representations W3-B Foundational Issues W3-C Symposium: Decision and W3-D Symposium: Risk Analysis of Risk in Risk Analysis, Part Risk Analysis in a Digital Era of Cybersecurity in Critical 2 - Uncertainty and Risk Infrastructure Systems Conceptualizations 1:30 PM-3:00 PM

3:00 PM-3:30 PM Coffee Break W4-A Symposium: The W4-B Symposium: W4-C Symposium: Early W4-D Symposium: Data-Driven Perception of Scientific Foundational Issues in Risk Warning Systems for Emerging Risk Modeling Using Predictive Uncertainty and Risk/ Analysis, Part 3 or Disruptive Technologies in Analytics Approach Technology Acceptance Countering Weapons of Mass Destruction 3:30 PM –5:00

5:00 PM - 5:30 PM T-Shirt Giveaway - Registration Area, Arlington Ballroom Foyer, Registration desk

18 Society For Risk Analysis Annual Meeting Wednesday

Salon H Salon J Salon K Salon 1 Salon 2

W1-F Organizations, Systems W1-G Managing Risks of W1-H Symposium: Recent W1-I Symposium: Standards W1-J Symposium: Visual Cues and Resilience Nanomaterials, Radionuclides, Advances in the Occupational of Certainty in Scientific Risk and Perceptions of Risk: Modern Natech, & Through Inspections Health and Safety of Advanced Decision-Making Agriculture in the Era of Social Materials and Technologies Media 8:30 AM-10:00 AM

10:00 AM-10:30 AM Coffee Break W2-F Integrating Data Sources W2-G Urban Resilience and W2-H Symposium: State-of- W2-I Exposure Assessment: W2-J Conflict and Collaboration into QMRA: From Pathogen Social Equity the-Art Exposure Models and Innovations, Models, and Survival Data to Whole Genome Data Quality for Evaluating Methods Sequencing Environmental, Community, Consumer Product, and

10:30 AM-Noon Workplace Exposures: Part 1

Noon-1:30 PM Plenary Luncheon – The Reality of Human Trafficking and the Role of Risk Analysis, Arlington Ballroom, Salon III & IV (Included in registration fee) W3-F Natural Hazard and Urban W3-H Symposium: State-of- W3-I Roundtable: Combating W3-J Symposium: Risk and Resilience the-Art Exposure Models and Human Trafficking Resilience: At a Crossroads Data Quality for Evaluating Environmental, Community, Consumer Product, and

1:30 PM-3:00 PM Workplace Exposures: Part 2

3:00 PM-3:30 PM Coffee Break W4-F Risk Characterization of W4-G Symposium: Systems W4-H Roundtable: State-of- W4-I Exposure Assessment of W4-J Decision Making Under Microbiological Hazards Thinking and Interdisciplinary the-Art Exposure Models and Air Pollutants: New Frontiers in Uncertainty: Theories and Approaches for Building Data Quality for Evaluating the Assessment of Public Health Methods Resilience Environmental, Community, Risks Consumer Product, and Workplace Exposures: Part 3 3:30 PM –5:00

5:00 PM - 5:30 PM T-Shirt Giveaway - Registration Area, Arlington Ballroom Foyer, Registration desk

Final Program 19 Monday Technical Program Presenter’s name is asterisked (*) if other than first author.

10:30 AM – 12:00 PM 10:30 AM – 12:00 PM 10:30 AM – 12:00 PM 10:30 AM – 12:00 PM 10:30 AM – 12:00 PM

Salon A Salon B Salon C Salons DE Salons FG M2-A Climate Change M2-B Symposium: From Open to M2-C Symposium: Study of M2-D Symposium: Benchmark M2-E Symposium: Risk Communication, Adaptation, Big Data: Using Risk Science to Violent Crime and Gun Violence Dose Guidance Across the Globe Assessment, Economic Evaluation, and Resilience, Part 1 Better Deliver Benefits to Patients Chair: Xue Lei and Avenues for Harmonization and Decisions, Part 1 Chair: Robyn Wilson Chair: Frederic Bouder of Modeling Methodologies Chair: Lisa Robinson 10:30 AM M2-C.1 Chair: J. Allen Davis 10:30 AM M2-A.1 10:30 AM M2-B.1 Measuring the effectiveness of 10:30 AM M2-E.1 Climate change risk perceptions and Bridging the risk science-policy gap: are counterterrorism measures 10:30 AM M2-D.1 Converting between Measures of adaptation measures around Asia regulatory agencies ready? Jore SH Development of a Unified Model Suite Health Impact: Health Gap to Health Aoyagi M Balog-Way DHP University of Stavanger for Dichotomous and Continuous Expectancy National Institute for Environmental Cornell University Toxicological Data Brand KP, Stieb D, Burnett R Studies 10:50 AM M2-C.2 Cortinas J University of Ottawa and Health Canada 10:50 AM M2-B.2 Analysis and forecasting of mass EFSA 10:50 AM M2-A.2 One risk Culture to bind them all? shootings using change point detection 10:50 AM M2-E.2 UK public understanding of climate Results of a pilot study Lei X, MacKenzie C 10:50 AM M2-D.2 Recent advances in probabilistic impacts, risks and adaptation Bouder FB, Milon JB Iowa State University EPA and EFSA Approaches for dose-response assessment to inform strategies University of Stavanger Benchmark Dose Modeling socioeconomic benefits analysis Demski C, Steentjes K, Pidgeon N 11:10 AM M2-C.3 Davis JA Chiu WA, Paoli G Cardiff University 11:10 AM M2-B.3 The effects of three common gun laws US Environmental Protection Agency Texas A&M University (WAC), Risk Foundational Challenges for Risk on firearms deaths Sciences International (GP) 11:10 AM M2-A.3 Communication in Pharma: An Morral AR, Schell T, Griffin BA, Cefalu M 11:10 AM M2-D.3 A question of adaptation vs . mitigation? Industry Perspective RAND Corporation The World Health Organization’s 11:10 AM M2-E.3 Communicating climate change risks Ferstenberg LB update to guidance on dose-response Premature Deaths, Statistical Lives, and national responses Astra Zeneca 11:30 AM M2-C.4 assessment and benchmark dose and Years of Life Lost: Identification, Steentjes K, Pidgeon N, Demski C, Corner Active shooter situations: an agent- modeling Quantification, and Valuation of A 11:30 AM M2-B.4 based model of civilian response Haber LT Mortality Risks Cardiff University Genetic Risk policy in the big data age: strategy University of Cincinnati Hammitt JK*, Morfeld P, Tuomisto J, exploring technology advanced tools to Stewart A, MacKenzie CA* Erren TC 11:30 AM M2-A.4 support risk communication Iowa State University 11:30 AM M2-D.4 Harvard University, Toulouse School of The role of message alignment and risk Mrksic Kovacevic S, Bouder F Model and Distribution Averaging for Economics tolerance in promoting adaptation University of Stavanger Sponsored by: Continuous Data Wilson RS, Beetstra M, Stockwell R Security and Defense Specialty Group Wheeler MW 11:30 AM M2-E.4 The Ohio State University Sponsored by: NIOSH Dynamic Versus Static Modeling Foundational Issues in Risk Analysis of Mortality-related Benefits of PM Sponsored by: Specialty Group Sponsored by: Reductions in the US and Chile 1990 Risk Communication Specialty Group Dose Response Specialty Group - 2015 Roman H, Fann N, Penn S, White A, Neumann J Industrial Economics, Inc. (IEc)

Sponsored by: Society for Benefit Cost Analysis and EBASG

20 Society For Risk Analysis Annual Meeting Monday Technical Program Presenter’s name is asterisked (*) if other than first author.

10:30 AM – 12:00 PM 10:30 AM – 12:00 PM 10:30 AM – 12:00 PM 10:30 AM – 12:00 PM

Salon H Salon J Salon K Salon 1 M2-F Symposium: Building M2-G Risk Analysis in M2-H Symposium: M2-I Challenging Risk a Risk-based Food Safety the Developing World Protecting People and Assessment Practices to Improve System from Scratch and Remote Areas: Data, Changing Their Behavior Regulatory Decision-Making Chair: Kara Morgan Perspectives, and Models Chair: Frank Pagone Chair: Hank Jenkins-Smith Chair: Vanessa Schweizer 10:30 AM M2-F.1 10:30 AM M2-H.1 10:30 AM M2-I.1 Food safety in Low and Middle Income 10:30 AM M2-G.1 Plutonium (Pu): Historical Perspective Make risk assessment great again: slow Countries – An opportunity for risk- Risk Analysis in the Developing World: on Evaluation of Health Risks of a New the march towards systematic review, based decision making Integrating Data and Decisions through Element from Discovery to the Present magic thresholds, and hormesis policy Morgan KM, Kowalcyk BB an Interdisciplinary Approach McClellan RO Finkel AM Ohio State University Baroud H Toxicology and Risk Analysis University of Michigan Vanderbilt University 10:50 AM M2-F.2 10:50 AM M2-H.2 10:50 AM M2-I.2 The essential ingredients in a from- 10:50 AM M2-G.2 Hazard Identification: Considerations in Sources of uncertainty in cannabis scratch recipe for risk-based food safety Healthcare Data Management in Evaluating Complex Issues in Defining urine drug screening systems Displacement Settings: Case Study of “What is the Hazard” Simon TW Paoli GM, Hartnett E, Ruthman RT, Wiles Internal Displacement in Nigeria Nocco RA Ted Simon LLC A Ekezie W, Timmons S, Myles P, Pritchard Chevron Risk Sciences International C, Siebert P, Murray R, Bains M 11:10 AM M2-I.3 University of Nottingham, United 11:10 AM M2-H.3 Risks Associated with Changing an 11:10 AM M2-F.3 Kingdom Risk Assessment of Urban Odors: Risk Excipient in an Existing Drug Product The Role of Economics in Risk Analysis Communication and the Hedonic Tone Cragin D, Albert N, Engemann A, Dom N, Scharff RL 11:10 AM M2-G.3 Pagone FJ Dewulf B, Tanghe T, Orbons L, Glodek M, The Ohio State University Enterprise Resilience of Remote RHP Risk Management Inc. Herron M, Bentley L Operations in Arctic Regions Merck & Co. 11:30 AM M2-F.4 Hollenback KS, Collier ZA, Thorisson 11:30 AM M2-H.4 A communication and decision making H, Linkov I, Trump BD, Polmateer TL, Occupational Exposure Assessment 11:30 AM M2-I.4 view of building a risk-based decision Lambert JH Strategies The Puzzle of Licensing and making system University of Virginia, Collier Research Heckman BJ Advertising: Towards Further Explaining Wilson RS Systems, U.S. Army Corps of Engineers RHP Risk Management Inc. Transatlantic Regulatory Divergence The Ohio State University in the Pharmaceuticals Sector Using 11:30 AM M2-G.4 Sponsored by: Culture Acknowledging uncertainty in models Occupational Health and Safety Specialty Wells LM for sustainable development: a Group Erasmus University Rotterdam framework for robust policy analysis Williams TG, Guikema SD, Brown DG, Sponsored by: Agrawal A Risk, Policy & Law Specialty Group

Sponsored by: Risk and Development Specialty Group

Final Program 21 Monday

10:30 AM – 12:00 PM 1:30 PM – 3:00 PM 1:30 PM – 3:00 PM 1:30 PM – 3:00 PM

Salon 2 Salon A Salon B Salon C M2-J Poster Platform: Risk Perception, M3-A Climate Change M3-B Roundtable: Current M3-C Global Catastrophic Risks Communication, and Digital Technology Communication, Adaptation, Foundational Issues in the Chair: Anthony Barrett Chair: TBD and Resilience, Part 2 Field of Risk Analysis Chair: Elspeth Spence Chair: Roger Flage 1:30 PM M3-C.1 10:30 AM M2-J.2 10:30 AM M2-J.5 The purpose of this roundtable, organized Global Catastrophic Risk Decision Tracking Misinformation on Social Comparative analysis of emotions 1:30 PM M3-A.1 as an interactive small roundtable group Analysis Media: A Machine Learning Approach and social network structures in social Understanding stakeholder and plenary discussion, is to raise debate Baum SD Hunt KH, Agarwal P, Zhuang J media discourse about different perceptions of advanced preparedness on some current foundational issues Global Catastrophic Risk Institute University at Buffalo scientific issues systems for addressing climate-related in the field of risk analysis . The session 1:45 PM M3-C.2 Okada T, Xenos M natural disasters in Peru will start with the introduction of a set of 10:30 AM M2-J.3 University of Wisconsin-Madison Wirz CD, Brossard D, Block P questions related to the foundations of U .S . Policy for Reducing Global Using Linguistic Markers to Detect UW-Madison risk analysis, including: Why should risk Catastrophic Risk 10:30 AM M2-J.7 Risk Perception Factors within Opioid matrices be used with care? Do logical Brown J Abuse Digital and Social Discussions to 5G technology and public concern: 1:45 PM M3-A.2 probabilities exist? What is causality? Is Future of Life Institute and the Global Enable Enhanced Risk Communication a discussion on effective science Are we gaining ground or already subjective expected utility theory useful Catastrophic Risk Institute Effectiveness . A Text Analytics and communication behind? Motivating climate adaptation in (and adequate for) risk analysis? Are 2:00 PM M3-C.3 Machine Learnin Dopart PJ, Graf KL through loss aversion mathematical and behavioral game Biotechnology as an emerging global Sardella A, Sardella V Exponent Walpole EH, Wilson RS, Toman E theory useful in risk analysis? Attendees catastrophic risk Washington University in St. Louis, The Ohio State University will form working groups, based on their 10:30 AM M2-J.9 Loyola University Chicago own preference . Each group will discusses Ackerman GA 2:00 PM M3-A.3 Risk Perception, Social Media and one of the questions raised and develop University at Albany 10:30 AM M2-J.4 Social Trust of Artificial Intelligence Public acceptability of the use of some main points to present and discuss 2:15 PM M3-C.4 Communicating Uncertainty in Deep De Marcellis-Warin N, Warin T enhanced weathering to help reduce in plenary towards the end of the session . Learning Models for High Stakes Polytechnique Montreal, Skema climate change The Caveman and the Bomb: Psychological Obstacles to Rational Decisions Business School and CIRANO Spence ES, Pidgeon NF, Cox EM Roundtable participants include: Canfield CI, Shank D, Andrews L, Dagli C Cardiff University Decisions About the Use of Nuclear • Roger Flage Weapons Missouri University of Science & • Terje Aven Technology 2:15 PM M3-A.4 Slovic P The effect of risk and benefit perception • Seth Guikema Decision Research and University of on consumersʼ acceptance of products • Tony Cox Oregon derived from captured carbon Lutzke LA, Arvai JL Sponsored by: 2:30 PM M3-C.5 University of Michigan Foundational Issues in Risk Analysis Regulating Best-Case Scenarios Specialty Group Rowell A 2:30 PM M3-A.5 University of Illinois College of Law Cycles of media attention, narrative themes, and institutional change: the Sponsored by: evolution of oysters from risk objects to Security and Defense Specialty Group catalysts of environmental initiatives Holley JR Cornell University

Sponsored by: Risk Communication Specialty Group

22 Society For Risk Analysis Annual Meeting Monday

1:30 PM – 3:00 PM 1:30 PM – 3:00 PM 1:30 PM – 3:00 PM 1:30 PM – 3:00 PM 1:30 PM – 3:00 PM

Salons DE Salons FG Salon H Salon J Salon K M3-D Disaster Risk Analysis M3-E Risk Assessment and M3-F Symposium: The Role M3-G Managing Risk: Balance, M3-H Roundtable: Worker and Modeling Benefits Analysis Interface of Predictive Microbiology Communication, and Trust Considerations as EPA Implements Chair: Stanley Levinson Chair: Aliya Sassi and its Impact on Food Safety Chair: Jason Bassett the 2016 Toxic Substances Quantitative Microbiological Control Act Amendments 1:30 PM M3-D.1 1:30 PM M3-E.1 Risk Assessment and Beyond: 1:30 PM M3-G.1 Chair: Steve Gibb Leveraging Scientific Advances Coupling Equilibrium Models with The Pebble Remains in the Master’s Helicopters and Horses and A-List The 2016 amendments to the Toxic Electricity Capacity Expansion Hand: Two Careers Spent Learning Chairs: Yuhuan Chen, Elizabeth Williams Hollywood Stars: A Mixed Methods Substances Control Act create specific Investments to Hedge against Large- (Still) from John Evans Study of Safety, Risk and Accidents in safeguards for â€œpotentially exposed scale Electric Power Infrastructure Gray G, Finkel AM 1:30 PM M3-F.1 Television Production or susceptible subpopulations — such Disruptions GWU Milken Institute School of Public Predictive Microbiology and Quantita- Soane EC as infants, children, pregnant women, Shittu E Health tive Microbial Risk Assessments (QMRA), London School of Economics and workers, or the elderly . George Washington University what has been accomplished during Political Science It might be easy to overlook "workers" 1:45 PM M3-E.2 the last thirty and twenty years 1:45 PM M3-D.2 1:45 PM M3-G.2 among the listed at-risk groups but that Towards a disutility function for risk: Buchanan RL Government policy development and asking (not telling) the public how Risk managing decision-making would be a mistake . Unions and worker University of Maryland and Center for analysis for hurricane risk management probabilities of grave harm affect them processes: A focus on carbon capture health advocates who have spent years Food Safety and Security Systems fighting for TSCA reform believe the Wang D, Davidson RA*, Nozick LK, Trainor Finkel AM, Johnson BB technologies in Canada wording is no small feat . The revised law JE, Kruse J 1:45 PM M3-F.2 Larkin PM, Bird SD, Gattinger M University of Michigan School of Public gives the Environmental Protection Agency University of Delaware Health and Decision Research How Predictive Microbiology and University of Ottawa the power to restrict chemicals based on Risk Assessment Modeling Tools have health risks . 2:00 PM M3-D.4 2:00 PM M3-E.3 Changed Food Microbiology 2:00 PM M3-G.3 The addition of "worker" is a big A portfolio decision analysis of A Method for Estimating the Benefits Whiting RC Beyond Data Analytics - emergency medicine buffer stocks of Avoiding Toxicological Endpoints Communicating Risk Insights through change given unions' perceptions Exponent Montibeller G, Angelis A, Kanavos P on the Pathway to Cancer that Visualization . that Occupational Safety and Health Loughborough University Non-experts Do Not Understand 2:00 PM M3-F.3 Dyer RD Administration permissible exposure limits Belzer RB What could we do that we are not doing Management School are sometimes out of date, weak, or don't 2:15 PM M3-D.5 Good Intentions Paving Co. yet regarding predictive microbiology cover relevant toxics in the workplace . A framework for risk analysis and and QMRA approaches to food safety? 2:30 PM M3-G.4 This session will leverage the insights of 2:15 PM M3-E.4 prognostics and health monitoring for Oscar T Adopting a risk informed approach to industry consultants, current and former complex engineering systems Two Market Failure Arguments in stakeholder selection and engagement USDA, ARS EPA scientists, union representatives, Groth KM, Moradi R Pipeline Safety Regulations: Free for software requirements elicitation and an academic to discuss EPA's early University of Maryland Rider Problem in Public Goods or 2:15 PM M3-F.4 Egbokhare FA, Aziken GO*, Ohohe O, implementation of worker protections in its Externalities to Third Parties How Predictive Microbiology and Risk Ariavie G decisions on methylene chloride, NMP and Sponsored by: Gungor AG Assessments can be used more effectively University of Benin Nigeria other chemicals it has reviewed and made Engineering and Infrastructure Specialty U.S. Department of Transportation Zwietering M regulatory decisions about . Group Wageningen University Sponsored by: A similar session on TSCA implementation 2:30 PM M3-E.5 Applied Risk Management Specialty Group at the 2017 conference drew about 100 The Environmental Burden of Disease 2:30 PM M3-F.5 participants to focus on the "conditions project: Health risk ranking of hazards The future of Predictive Microbiology of use" of chemicals as they are regulated for decision-makers and QMRA: Leveraging new data and under TSCA and other policy implementa- Greco SL, Drudge C, Kim JH, Copes R technology tion challenges . Public Health Ontario Van Doren JM U.S. Food and Drug Administration Sponsored by: Sponsored by: Occupational Health and Safety Specialty Society for Benefit Cost Analysis and EBASG Sponsored by: Group, and Risk and Development Microbial Risk Analysis Specialty Group Specialty Group

Final Program 23 Monday

1:30 PM – 3:00 PM 1:30 PM – 3:00 PM 3:30 PM – 5:00 PM 3:30 PM – 5:00 PM 3:30 PM – 5:00 PM

Salon 1 Salon 2 Salon A Salon B Salon C M3-I Symposium: Global Disease M3-J Poster Platform: Perspectives M4-A Health Risk Perception M4-B Students and Young M4-C Symposium: Risk, Security, Burden Caused by Foodborne on Risk-based Decision Making and Communication Professionals Roundtable and Trust of Embedded Hardware Chemicals and Toxins Chair: TBD Chair: Jacqueline Patterson and Workshop in Cyber-Physical Systems Chair: Felicia Wu Chair: Tom Logan Chair: Zachary Collier 1:30 PM M3-J.1 3:30 PM M4-A.1 How will society address the complex 1:30 PM M3-I.1 Development of a combined Risk Communication with Pregnant challenges it faces in the future? This is 3:30 PM M4-C.1 Global Burden of Foodborne Disease: vulnerability index supporting climate Inuit Women in Arctic Canada a question extremely pertinent to young Advantages of the CHEST NSF IUCRC to Introduction and Methylmercury change adaptation in the Italian coastal Boyd A, Furgal C, Pirkle C, Muckle G, people . How risk science will contribute to Industry and the DoD Gibb HJ area Ricard S, Gauthier M, Beaulne C, Lemire solving these challenges lies in the hands Emmert JM Gibb Epidemiology Consulting LLC Bonato M, Furlan E, Torresan S, Dalla M of tomorrowʼs risk analysts: the students University of Cincinnati Pozza P, Critto A, Michetti M, Marcomini A Washington State University and young professionals of our society . 1:45 PM M3-I.2 Ca’ Foscari University Venice and 3:45 PM M4-C.2 Aflatoxin in Corn and Nuts: Cancer and Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate 3:45 PM M4-A.2 This is a precursor to next Mayʼs workshop Counterfeit Defect Coverage Analysis: Immunological Effects Change Reports of social circles’ and own for students and young professionals Current Status and Future Directions Wu F, Saha Turna N vaccination behavior: A national where we will explore the role of risk Guin U Michigan State University 1:30 PM M3-J.4 longitudinal survey analysis in solving emerging challenges in Auburn University Risk Tradeoffs between Climate Change Bruine de Bruin W, Parker AM, Galesic M, technology, environment, and society . In 2:00 PM M3-I.3 and Solar Radiation Management Vardavas R this panel, we will begin this discussion in 4:00 PM M4-C.3 Global estimates for the impact of lead Felgenhauer TN, Mallampalli V, Borsuk University of Leed, Carnegie Mellon a low-pressure atmosphere, discuss ideas Inside Product Security Risk from food on IQ and Disability Adjusted ME, Wiener JB University, RAND, Santa Fe Institute and between students and young profes- Management for Cyber-Physical Life Years Duke University Max Planck Institute sionals, and reflect upon the question Systems Carrington CD, Devleesschauwer B, Gibb “is modern risk science prepared for Crowther KG H, Bolger PM 1:30 PM M3-J.5 4:00 PM M4-A.3 tomorrowʼs challenges?” General Electric Spoiled Hike LLC Implementing a framework to evaluate Pandemic Futures: Public Health and the impact of food intake shifts on risk Infectious Disease - Lessons Learned Participants: 4:15 PM M4-C.4 2:15 PM M3-I.4 of illness using a case study with infant from Zika . • Sara Gray Overview of NRMCï¿½s work on Cassava Cyanide and Children’s cereal Berube D • Mariana Caines conducting a Supply Chain Analysis Cognitive Impairment Santillana Farakos S, Pouillot R, North Carolina State University • Tim Williams and Assessment Chen C, Wu F Spungen J, Flannery B, Dolan L, Van • Ben Rachunok Covel C 4:15 PM M4-A.4 Michigan State University Doren J • Brennan Chapman Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Intentions to seek information about U.S. Food and Drug Administration • Tom Logan Agency 2:30 PM M3-I.5 the flu vaccine: The role of norms, Exposure-based estimation of the 1:30 PM M3-J.6 anticipated and experienced affect, 4:30 PM M4-C.5 Sponsored by: global burden of coronary heart Holistic judgments and protection and information insufficiency among Enterprise risk and resilience of disease from dietary arsenic intentions: an empirical test of a model vaccinated and unvaccinated people Foundational Issues in Risk Analysis investment in emerging technologies Specialty Group Barchowsky A, Oberoi S, of perceived risk Lu H, Winneg KM, Jamieson KH, and embedded hardware systems Devleesschauwer B, Gibb HJ Walpole HD, Wilson RS Albarracin D Andrews DJ University of Pittsburgh The Ohio State University University of Pennsylvania University of Virginia

Sponsored by: 1:30 PM M3-J.7 4:30 PM M4-A.5 Sponsored by: Exposure Assessment Specialty Group A review of the literature on risk-based The influence of psychological Security and Defense Specialty Group decision making distance on discrete emotions and risk Crawford A, Morgan KM perception in a measles outbreak Ohio State University McAllister CA, Yang JZ University at Buffalo, SUNY

Sponsored by: Risk Communication Specialty Group

24 Society For Risk Analysis Annual Meeting Monday

3:30 PM – 5:00 PM 3:30 PM – 5:00 PM 3:30 PM – 5:00 PM 3:30 PM – 5:00 PM 3:30 PM – 5:00 PM

Salons DE Salons FG Salon H Salon J Salon K M4-D Symposium: Engineering M4-E Benefit Cost Analysis: M4-F Epistemic Issues Around M4-G From Analysis to M4-H Symposium: Risk Analysis of and Infrastructure Solutions for Theory and Application Risk and Resilience Management: Natural Engineered Nanomaterials: Where Natural Hazards Risk Management Chair: Chris Dockins Chair: Henry Willis Hazards & Petroleum Have We Been, Lessons Learned, Chair: David Johnson Chair: Kelsey Hollenback and Transfer of Knowledge to 3:30 PM M4-E.1 3:30 PM M4-F.1 Other Emerging Technologies 3:30 PM M4-D.1 The value of reducing mortality risk: Resilience: What's it worth to you? 3:30 PM M4-G.1 Chair: Khara Grieger Temporary Housing after Natural benefit-cost analysis, social welfare Willis HH Perception during crises . Seeing the Disasters: Maximizing Community functions, and fair innings RAND Corporation forest, but not the trees . 3:30 PM M4-H.1 Resilience While Minimizing Financial Adler MD, Ferranna M, Hammitt JK*, Aarset M, Juvkam PC Application of a DoD Nanomaterial Risk Risk Treich N 3:45 PM M4-F.2 NTNU Norwegian University of Science Assessment Framework to Evaluate the Perrucci DV, Baroud H Harvard University and Toulouse School Resilience of Small Teams – Theory, and Technology Health and Environmental Impacts of Vanderbilt University of Economics Methods, and Applications Additive Manufacturing Technologies Galaitsi SE, Trump BD, Wells EM, Linkov I 3:45 PM M4-G.2 Ede JD, Shatkin JA 3:45 PM M4-E.3 3:45 PM M4-D.2 US Army Corps of Engineers, Risk and Preparedness for natural hazards on Vireo Advisors Resilient Production Cost Modeling: Benefit cost ratio of vaccination to Decision Science coastal communities of Chile and its Can our Electric Grid Better Weather control paratuberculosis in Canadian main predictors 3:45 PM M4-H.2 the Storm? dairy cattle 4:00 PM M4-F.3 Cisternas PC, Cifuentes LA, Bronfman NC, Transferring Knowledge from the Field Staid A, Knueven B, Castillo A, Watson JP Hall DC, Rasmussen P Regulatory Responses to Resilience in Repetto PB of Nanomaterial Risk Analysis for Other Sandia National Labs University of Calgary UK Financial Services Pontifical Catholic University of Chile Emerging Technologies Hall IS Grieger KD 4:00 PM M4-E.4 4:00 PM M4-D.3 University of Northampton 4:00 PM M4-G.3 North Carolina State University Improving emergency management Benefit-Cost Problem Formulation - Risk assessment of an underground services in coastal communities prone The Case of Cell-Based Meat 4:15 PM M4-F.4 pipeline carrying methane crossing 4:00 PM M4-H.3 to repetitive flooding Williams RA Understanding personal concern for vertically the Magdalena River Risk Assessment and Governance Y. Jasour Z, Reilly A Author climate change related extreme events Alarcón M, Torres ES, Munoz-Giraldo F of Synthetic Biology - Lessons University of Maryland College Park in the context of geographic risks and Universidad de los Andes Learned From Emerging Technology 4:15 PM M4-E.5 community resilience Scholarship 4:15 PM M4-D.4 Public Judgments about Shao W, Gardezi M Sponsored by: Trump BD, Linkov I Flood risk reduction benefits of coastal National-Level Tradeoffs between Life- University of Alabama and South Dakota Applied Risk Management Specialty Group US Army Corps of Engineers restoration and green infrastructure Prolonging Regulatory Benefits and State University projects Their Costs 4:15 PM M4-H.4 Johnson DR Johnson BB, Finkel AM 4:30 PM M4-F.5 Exposure and Risk Assessment Purdue University Decision Research, University of AI and Indicator-based Assessment Approaches for Emerging Consumer Michigan of Societal & Social Acceptability Technologies and Materials 4:30 PM M4-D.5 of Aystemic Impacts Caused by Thomas T Regarding Enhanced Residential Sponsored by: Multi-hazard Threats to Critical US Consumer Product Safety Construction and Community Society for Benefit Cost Analysis and EBASG Infrastructures Commission Resiliency Subject to Extreme Events Jovanovic AS Lester HD Steinbeis R-Tech / EU-VRi 4:30 PM M4-H.5 University of South Alabama Nano/Synbio Techno Revolutions: Sponsored by: Different names, same missed Sponsored by: Resilience Analysis Specialty Group opportunities for risk governance? Engineering and Infrastructure Specialty Kuiken T Group North Carolina State University

Sponsored by: Advanced Materials and Technologies Specialty Group

Final Program 25 Monday

3:30 PM – 5:00 PM

Salon 2 M4-J Poster Platform: Application of QMRA in Water Quality Chair: Patrick Gurian

3:30 PM M4-J.1 3:30 PM M4-J.5 Water quality simulation to inform Inferring hidden exposure parameters design of a disinfectant-free floating based on dose–response information pool in New York City for Naegleria Fowleri Dale AL, Lemay JC, Lynch HN, Bowers TS Rasheduzzaman M, Bartrand T, Haas CN, Gradient Corporation Singh R, Gurian PL Drexel University, ESPRI 3:30 PM M4-J.2 Challenges in estimating health risks of 3:30 PM M4-J.6 simultaneous exposures of pathogens, Identifying public health risk factors antibiotics and antibiotics-resistant associated with water use and water genes during water reuse: A case study quality in a green home of Delhi, India Julien R, Mitchell J* Tyagi N, Jain H, Lila K, Gurian PL, Munir Michigan State University M, Kumar A Indian Institute of Technology Delhi 3:30 PM M4-J.7 A quantitative model for evaluating risk 3:30 PM M4-J.3 trade-offs in Legionnaires’ Disease risk, Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment energy cost, and scalding risk for hot for Microbiological Specification water systems Setting for Listeria monocytogenes Heida AJ, Mraz A, Weir M, Hamilton KA Contamination in Wastewater Reuse in Arizona State University Pasteurized Fluid Milk Processing Dogan OB, Meneses YE, Flores RA, Wang 3:30 PM M4-J.8 B Development of a Microcystin Drinking University of Nebraska-Lincoln, New Water Risk Model Using an Adaptation Mexico State University of the QMRA Framework Weir MH, Wood T 3:30 PM M4-J.4 The Ohio State University Understanding challenges in conducting QMRA of pathogen 3:30 PM M4-J.9 exposure from Yamuna river water Risk assessment framework as a tool using sensor based data to quantify water quality changes in Tyagi N, Kumar A, Jha S, Perumal V, Rose building plumbing systems in terms of JB, Mulchandani A disability adjusted life years Indian Institute of Technology Delhi Tolofari DL, Masters S, Bartrand , Haas , Warring , Hamilton KA, Singh R, Summers S, Olson M, Gurian PL Drexel University

Sponsored by: Microbial Risk Analysis Specialty Group

26 Society For Risk Analysis Annual Meeting Monday

6:00 PM – 8:00 PM

Arlington Ballroom P Poster Session P.1 P.7 P.14 P.20 P.26 Risk analysis based on urban geology The risk of cyber security attacks on Assessment of Risk of Variant Identification of potential biomarkers Mitigating the Limits of Expert from the city of La Paz, B .C .S ., Mexico autonomous vehicles Creutzfeldt-Jakob Disease (vCJD) from and characterization of Salmonella Judgement through Alternative Tools (southeast portion) Mamajiwala B, Maeda Y Use of Bovine Heparin strains in ground chicken using whole and Methods Hirales-Rochin J Shizuoka University Huang Y, Forshee RA, Keire D, Lee S, genome sequences Marinelli J Tecnological Institute of La Paz Gregori L, Asher DM, Bett C, Niland B, Tanui CK, Karanth , Pradhan Global Risk Intel P.8 Brubaker SA, Anderson SA, Yang H University of Maryland P.2 Exposure Assessment with Cluster U.S. Food and Drug Administration P.27 Incorporating Analytical Variance Analysis and Bayesian Statistics to P.21 The configuration and visualization into a Comparative Quantitative Incorporate Existing Data from Similar P.15 Risk Assessment of Contaminated Sites of an integrated database for the Risk Assessment (QRA) Approach for Occupational Scenarios Evaluating specificity and sensitivity of Vulnerable to Inundation due to Sea user of food safety authorities from Tobacco Products Huang SZ, Chuang YC, Wu KY different diagnostic methods to identify Level Rise food commodity inspection data to Anderson CA, Haase V, Ehman KD, National Taiwan University Toxoplasma gondii in freshly cut meats Faraji Najarkolaie K, Bensi MT, Reilly AC quantitative health risk . Wiecinski PN, Smith DC of lambs and goats University of Maryland Huang SZ, Lin HC, Lee LC, Tu KM, Li HF, Altria Client Services LLC P.10 Rani S, Dubey JP, Pradhan AK* Chuang YC* Probabilistic assessment of aggregate University of Maryland and United States P.22 National Taiwan University P.3 exposure risk for Di(2-ethylhexyl) Department of Agriculture A review of joint probability studies Re-evaluating Political Risk phthalate (DEHP) in Northern-Taiwan used for estimation of flood hazards P.28 Charactarization in Regional Context Chang WS, Huang WU P.16 due to combinations of flooding Hazard Assessment of Six Selected Hetou G Taiwan University Identification of phenotypic proxies for mechanisms Per- and Poly-fluoroalkyl Substances Rutgers University and iStrategic LLC Salmonella pathogenicity in chicken Mohammadi S, Bensi M, Kao SC, (PFAS) for Potential Impacts to National P.11 - applicability into a risk assessment DeNeale ST, Carr M, Kanney J Defense P.4 Scenario-based analysis of reduction framework University of Maryland, Oak Ridge Vogel CM, Maples A, Glaccum W, Mallard Guidelines, tips and suggestions for effects of improving sewage facilities’ Karanth S, Tanui CK, Pradhan AK National Laboratory, United States T, Rak A, Scanlon KA, Underwood P, how to improve your human health diffusion rate on ecological risk: A University of Maryland and Center for Nuclear Regulatory Commission Graham MR and ecological risk assessments case study focusing on emission of Food Safety and Security Systems, Noblis, Inc., IPC - Association Connecting Rapal KM, Coutinho CD detergents University of Maryland P.23 Electronics Industries®, Department of TechLaw, Inc. Toyohiko N Preliminary study to identify high-touch Defense Ochanomizu University P.17 surfaces in food service establishments P.5 Ranking the 45 Commonly Used as a potential means of improving P.29 Science for a Risky World: P.12 Solvents Listed on the Toxic Release future food establishment cleaning Identifying Knowledge Gaps in Building Implementing the new USGS Plan for From table-tops to digital twins: Inventory protocols Water Quality Management: Experts’ Risk Research and Applications industrial experiments in cyber risk Brown L, Forth H, Chiger A, Reichle L, Zilko S, UL-Huda N, Williams L, Liggans Perspective and Review of Existing Ludwig KA, Ramsey DW, Wood NJ, Crowther KG McFadden A G, Fanaselle W Guidance Documents Pennaz AB, Godt JG, Plant NG, Luco N General Electric Abt Associates Food and Drug Administration, Singh R, Rasheduzzaman MD, Yang Z, U.S. Geological Survey University of Maryland Hamilton K, Gurian PL P.13 P.18 Drexel University P.6 Value Alignment Strategies for AI Development of an Anthropometric P.24 Spatiotemporal groundwater pumping Catastrophe Risk Management Data Measurement Chair for Designing Assessing ISA Tree Risk Assessment estimation in the resilient management Barrett AM Ergonomic Office Chairs Approach Using Econometrics Analysis Lee CH, Yu HL* Global Catastrophic Risk Institute Idada OR, Ariavie GO Kabir E, Guikema SD, Koeser A, Martinez National Taiwan University University of Benin, Federal University J, Hyun Kim J University of Michigan, University of Florida

Final Program 27 Monday

Advanced Materials and Dose Response P.39 P.44 P.50 Technologies Not all components are equal: which Risk of Civil Infrastructure Obsolescence Systematic probabilistic risk P.34 haloacetic acids drive the toxicity of from Reactionary Planning and assessment of pesticide residues in tea P.30 Implications of the threshold approach haloacetic acid mixtures? Design: Operational Needs for Multiple Lu EH, Wu KY Handling missing data in air pollution for risk assessment of inorganic arsenic Simmons JE, Triplett CA, Plewa MJ, Objective Temporal Scenario Analysis Legislative Yuan, Taiwan studies: a comparison of different in drinking water . Wagner ED, Aume LL, Feder PI Pennetti C approaches based on multivariate P.51 Lange SS ORD, U.S. EPA, Battelle, Univ. of Illinois University of Virginia time-series models Texas Commission on Environmental Risk assessment of allergic foods and Bottigliengo D, Gallo E, Lanera C, Quality P.40 P.45 air pollution on allergic rhinitis Lorenzoni G, Hocagli H, Zagolin L, Critical appraisal tools for the The link between expertise and risk in Chou TH, Liu KY, Li CH, Lai TJ, Chiu SU, P.35 Marson G, Berchialla P, Baldi I, Gregori D evaluation of in vitro study bias and context: A Fuzzy Trace Theory Approach Ho WC Unit of Biostatistics, Epidemiology and Exploring associations between quality in risk assessment: Utilities and to NASA's Engineering Decisions China Medical University Public Health, Department of Cardiac, blood volatile organic compounds challenges Marti HD, Broniatowski DA and changes in hematologic and P.52 Thoracic and Vascular Sciences, Urban JD, Fitch SE, Pham LL, Wikoff DW The George Washington University biochemical profiles in a population University of Padova ToxStrategies, Inc. Risk assessment of air pollution and based study . P.46 the intake of omega-3 fatty acid from P.31 Cakmak S, Hebbern C, Andrade J, Dales P.41 An attempt of risk comparison on a fish and shellfishes on eczema . Nanosilver carriers as antimicrobial R Development of a Data Simulation hydrogen refueling station and a gas Liu KY, Chou TH, Li CH, Lai TJ, Chiu SY, agents for control of plant disease Health Canada Method to Optimize A Mechanistic station in Japan Ho WC Ameh T, Sharp B, Varzeas T, Sayes C, Dose-Response Model for Viral Loads of Ono K China Medical University P.36 Braswell E Hepatitis-A National Institute of Advanced Industrial Assessing Potential for Non-Monotonic P.53 Baylor University, USDA APHIS PPQ Weir MH Science and Technology (AIST) Dose Response for BPA in the CPHST The Ohio State University Relationship between exposure to CLARITY-BPA study PM2 .5 in diabetic population and Exposure Assessment Applied Risk Management Reiss R, Badding M, Barraj L, Williams A, colorectal cancer . Scrafford C Engineering and Infrastructure P.47 Ho WC, Chou TH, Liu KY, Li CH, Lai TJ, P.32 Exponent P.42 Implementing a probabilistic human Chiu SY, Chan WC, Tsan YT, Chen PC Assessing Bias in Disease Incidence China Medical University P.37 Risk analysis of PFAS contamination in health risk assessment framework Rates for Repeat Blood Donors in the for ranking Indian dumping sites: A Updates to a concentration-response private water wells: a Bayesian network P.54 United States: A Simulation-based case study of dermal and ingestion function for lead and cardiovascular model Approach exposures of heavy metals from Short-term effects of air pollution mortality Roostaei J, Mulhern R, MacDonald Belov A, Yang H, Williams AE, Berger JJ, contaminated groundwater particulate matter on the atrial Lynch MTK, Brown L Gibson J fibrillation onset risk in cardiac Custer B, Stramer SL, Dodd RY, Notari E, Guleria A, Kumar A Abt Associates University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill vulnerable patients Steele WR, Anderson SA, Forshee RA Indian Institute of Technology Delhi Gallo E, Folino F, Bottigliengo D, Lanera US Food and Drug Administration P.38 Engineering Infrastructure Specialty P.48 C, Gregori D, Zagolin L, Marson G, Iliceto Incidence estimates of varicella zoster: Group Comparative Studies on the S Decision and Risk a machine learning approach for Degradability of Recalcitrant Polycyclic University of Padova routinely collected ambulatory records P.43 P.33 Aromatic Hydrocarbons Lanera C, Berchialla P, Baldi I, Lorenzoni A network-of-networks approach for P.55 Investigating the Effect of Locally Oshomogho F, Ariaivie G, Owabor C G, Tramontan L, Scamarcia A, Cantarutti cyber-based contingency analysis of Estimating acute and chronic exposure Intense Rainfall Events on Precipitation University of Benin L, Giaquinto C, Gregori D interdependent infrastructure networks of children and adults to Carbendazim Frequency Analysis Estimates and under uncertainty in fruits and vegetables in China Addressing Sources of Uncertainty University Of Padova and University of P.49 Torino and Società Servizi Telematici Chatterjee S, Ganguly A, Sathanur A, Li J, Wang W*, Wang YH, Wang XQ, Yang Al Kajbaf A, Bensi MT Application of a gestational Pedianet Halappanavar M, Bhatia U, Subasi O, GL Research Assistant, University of physiologically based pharmacokinetic Clark K, Gao J, Brigantic R Zhejiang Acedemy of Agricultural Maryland (PBPK) model for perfluorooctane Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, sulfonate (PFOS) in risk assessment for Sciences Northeastern University-Boston, Indian pregnant women and fetuses Institute of Technology-Gandhinagar, Chou WC, Lin Z* Volpe National Transportation Systems Kansas State University Center, Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute

28 Society For Risk Analysis Annual Meeting Monday

P.56 P.61 P.68 P.73 Risk Communication Risk assessment of chronic exposure to Cadmium concentration survey in rice Probabilistic assessment of the Mercury detection technologies to P.80 organophosphorus pesticides in fruits from 2010 to 2018 and probabilistic cumulative dietary chronic exposure to inform metal recycling Making of a risk communication picture and vegetables between Taiwan and risk assessment of cadmium in Taiwan carbamate and pyrethroid pesticides Finster ME, MacDonell MM, Chang YS book United State population in Taiwan . Argonne National Laboratory Chao HW, Huang SZ, Wu KY Lien KW, Huang SZ, Wu KY Chiang SY, Chang BS, Chuang YC, Wu KY Oiso S National Taiwan University National Taiwan University China Medical University P.74 Institute of Nuclear Safety System, Glyphosate and Cancer: Risk Analysis of Incorporated P.57 P.62 P.69 the Data in the Times of Controversy P.81 Health risk assessment of exposure to Human Health Risk Assessment of Probabilistic Risk Assessment of Korchevskiy A methyl eugenol in food Triclosan in drinking water Inorganic Arsenic Exposure from Rice Comparison of risk perception among Chemistry & Industrial Hygiene, Inc. 13 physical risk factors in Japan Lin JR, Huang SZ, Wu KY Bhardwaj R Intake in Chinese Urban Population Ohkubo C National Taiwan University Indian Institute of Technology, Delhi Zhou Z, Shao K, Kang Y, Li H, Cao S, Xu Resilience Analysis J, Duan X The Japan EMF Information Center P.58 P.64 Indiana University School of Public P.75 P.82 Probabilistic Risk Assessment to Human health risk assessment from Health – Bloomington, University of Classifying the Countermeasures for Seeking information about enhanced Compare Health Risks of Oral Tobacco exposure to arsenic in rice grown in Science and Technology Beijing, Peking Reducing Damage from Natural-hazard geothermal systems: The role of Products Brazil University College of Environmental triggered accidents by sharing good systematic processing and information Santamaria AB, Krotenberg ME, Drouin Toledo MC, Batista BL, Olympio KPK, Sciences and Engineering experience in the leading six prefecture exchanging intentions SM, Ehman KD, Anderson CA, Haase V, Nardocci AC in Japan Smith DC Sao Paulo University of Sao Paulo - Lu H, Song H, McComas KA Microbial Risk Analysis Kojima N, Ito L, Nakakubo T, Tokai A University of Pennsylvania, Purdue Rimkus Consulting Group, Altria Client School of Public Health Osaka University Services P.70 University, Cornell University P.65 A quantitative approach to P.76 P.59 P.83 Estimating risks from natural gas characterizing data – and data gaps Estimating Readiness Transition A Random Forest approach to identify compressor station HAPs The Impact of Robust Public – on risk factors for antimicrobial Junction for Built Environment System Participation in a 30-year Commitment the simultaneous association between Kaden DA, Huang CK resistance in the agri-food production Disaster Recovery respiratory diseases in children and to Scientifically Assess Superfund Ramboll system (IAM .AMR) Lester HD multiple pollutants Health Outcomes in Butte Montana P.66 Chapman B, Murphy CP, Smith BA University of South Alabama Ackerlund WS Bottigliengo D, Gallo E, Lanera C, University of Guelph and Public Health Use of Machine Learning techniques for Ecology and Environment, Inc. Lorenzoni G, Hocagli H, Zagolin L, Agency of Canada case-detection of Varicella Zoster using Risk and Development Marson G, Berchialla P, Baldi I, Gregori D P.84 Unit of Biostatistics, Epidemiology and routinely collected textual ambulatory P.77 Effects of e-cigarette health warnings Public Health, Department of Cardiac, records Occupational Health and Safety Influencing Factors of Street-level and advertisements on risk perception, Thoracic and Vascular Sciences, Lanera C, Berchialla P, Baldi I, Lorenzoni P.71 Bureaucrats' Decision-making in Risk quitting intention and purchasing University of Padova G, Tramontan L, Scamarcia A, Cantarutti Sensitivity analysis in quantitative risk Events with Small Probability intention L, Giaquinto C, Gregori D P.60 assessment of a hydrogen refueling Shuang N, Bo F, Chuanshen Q Chen Y University of Padova, University of Torino station ExpoKids: a tool to characterize and Società Servizi Telematici Pedianet Shanghai Jiao Tong University Sam Houston State University environmental chemical aggregate Tsunemi K, Kawamoto A, Kihara T, Ono K P.85 exposures across childhood lifestages P.67 National Institute of Advanced Industrial P.79 Seeing is believing: how inflated self- Dai M, Euling SY, Phillips L, Rice G Application of Bayesian networks to Science and Technology Review of environmental impacts of plastic ban and risks hindering plastic assessments and gender affect youths' Oak Ridge Institute for Science and access hurricane risks to households P.72 recycling in Japan positive risk-taking Education, United States Environmental Abuabara A, Medina-Cetina Z, Peacock W Organizational Risk as a Social Field Protection Agency Texas A&M University Suresh PP, Maeda Y Wong JCS, Yang JZ – New Promise for Advancing Risk Shizuoka University University at Buffalo, The State University Science of New York Redinger CF Institute for Advanced Risk Management

Final Program 29 Monday

P.86 P.92 P.98 P.105 P.111 Seeing is believing: how inflated self- Scientific Uncertainty, anxiety, and Risk Communication in Heterogeneous Climate change impacts on the U .S . Consequences of abstract versus assessments and gender affect youths' engagement with an environmental Societies: From Information to Action transportation system management: A concrete conceptualization of genetic positive risk-taking problem Lundgren ML demographic and audience segment modification (GM): Publicʼs general Wong JCS, Yang JZ Qian S Mid Sweden University analysis on behavioral intentions and disapproval of GM but specific approval University at Buffalo, The State University UnIversity of Utah policy support of GM applications of New York P.99 Kim SC, Malterud A, Olugbemi A, Tallapragada M, Hardy BW, Lybrand E, P.93 Public attitudes about energy Esmaeili B Hallman WK P.87 Are they really as prepared as they think transitions and enhanced geothermal George Mason University Temple University The Engineering and Communication they are? Investigating self-assessment heating: the influence of place Challenges of Flooding: An bias in a risk communication survey meaning, identity, and attachment P.106 P.112 Interdisciplinary Approach to Henry HGW, St Clair AE, Haegeli P, Lambert CE, McComas KA, Anderson SK A Review: Scientific Approaches for A probabilistic approach for the cancer Understanding the Future of Flood Gregory R, Klassen K Cornell University, Cornell Cooperative Effective Risk/Benefit Communication risk characterization for the dietary Management Simon Fraser University, ChoiceWorks Extension about Food Safety nitrosamine intake pathway in Korea Herovic E, Bensi M, Solano C, Patterson Ltd. Avalanche Canada Yamaguchi H Jung JW, Kim UJ, Yu WJ, Park JW, Jeong E, Newmier S P.100 Aichi University EJ* University of Maryland P.94 Inoculating Inoculations: Using Korea Institute of Toxicology How do we integrate scientific entertainment to combat vaccine P.88 evidences and victims' viewpoints: misinformation Risk Policy and Law P.113 Social science evaluation of tsunami Case of asbestos contamination in a McClaran N P.107 Communication about Alzheimerʼs evacuation products nursery school Michigan State University Recommended update of EPA soil Disease and Related Dementias Lindell MK, Bostrom A, Goltz J, Prater C Murayama TM action level for lead Research with American Indians and P.102 Alaska Natives University of Washington Tokyo Institute of Technology Kountzman J Air Pollution - Invisible threat Boyd AD, Mayeda A, Muller C, Jernigan Black & Veatch Federal Services P.89 P.95 Williams B M, Buchwald D On the amplification of risk concern It's about time: analyzing the role King’s College London P.108 Washington State University towards air pollution in China of temporal distance perception in Probabilistic Risk Assessment of PBDEs P.103 P.115 Fan SW, Xu JH narrative persuasion in the context of Transformation in Multi-medium in Central University of Finance and e-cigarette prevention Out of sight, out of mind: towards a Taiwan Cost-benefit and health-benefit strategic approach to ocean health analyses of interventions to improve Economics, Peking University Liu S, Yang JZ Lu DK, Huang SZ, Wu KY communication water supplies for a majority African University at Buffalo, SUNY National Taiwan University P.90 Balog-Way DHP, McComas K, Harvell D American extraterritorial jurisdiction in Designing risk messages on social P.96 Cornell University P.109 North Carolina media in health crisis: content analysis Enhancing Collaborative Analysis Sharing Risk, Building Community: Colley SK, MacDonald Gibson J P.104 of Twitter posts sent from/to CDC in for Human Health Risk Assessment Cooperative Insurance as a Mechanism University of North Carolina-Chapel Hill Zika outbreak Decisions Understanding climate change risks to Address Financial Emergencies in P.116 Kim E Patterson J, Curran C, Maddaloni M, on the U .S . transportation system Atlanta management: A comparative analysis Factors modifying childrenʼs inhalation Indiana University Maier A Cohen AA of government professionals and U . S . risk assessment University of Cincinnati, Northern Duke University P.91 Kentucky University, Cardno ChemRisk public Saadeh RA, Klaunig JE Media use, social trust and vaccine- Kim SC, Olugbemi A, Malterud A, P.110 Jordan University of Science and P.97 related risk perception and vaccination Esmaeili B Managing Emerging Risks for Enhanced Technology, Indiana University intention for parents after several Abstract crisis or concrete threat: George Mason University Resilience: The new ISO 31050 standard vaccine scandals in China analyzing the influence of psychological P.117 Jovanovic AS Liu Z, Yang JZ distance on people’s mental construal Assessing and Mitigating the Biological Steinbeis R-Tech / EU-VRi State University of New York, Buffalo of climate change Risk from Space Return Missions Chu H, Yang JZ Locke J, Lal B Texas Tech University IDA Science and Technology Policy Institute

30 Society For Risk Analysis Annual Meeting Monday

P.118 P.124 P.130 Effects of selected lifestyle behaviors on Frequency, recency, and strength: Transportation Resilience and the BMI of 50 North Carolina adults Characteristics of experienced the Economic Consequences of Hibbert K, Morgan MK hurricanes differentially associate with Disruptions U.S. Environmental Protection Agency hurricane risk perceptions Ganin AA, Kurth MH, Kitsak M, Kozlowski Kranzler EC, Liao Y, Czajkowski J W, Leung B, Linkov I P.119 University of Pennsylvania University of Virginia, U.S. Army Engineer Construction of databases of Research and Development Center, environmental fate and ecotoxicity for P.125 Northeastern University, Regional the development of environmental risk Assessing a Hazard Model of Tolerance Economic Models Inc. evaluation system of pharmaceuticals for Wolves among the General Public Hirose A, Kobayashi N, Kurimoto M, Slagle KM, Wilson RS, Bruskotter JT Yamamoto H, Ikarashi Y, Takashi Y Ohio State University National Institute of Health Sciences P.126 P.120 Communicating about health risks in The role of study quality in examining Native communities: Experiences in the risk of cancer from occupational research and application exposure to ethylene oxide Mayeda AM, Boyd AD, Donovan D, Best EA, Vincent MJ, Thompson WJ, Maier Manson S, Buchwald D A, Dotson GS, Kozal JS, Mundt KA Washington State University, University Cardno Chemrisk of Washington, and University of Colorado P.121 I do not think it means what you think it P.127 means: explorations of mental models The role of vitamin D status in the of soil health association of inflammatory risk and Beetstra MA, Wade J albuminuria with polycyclic aromatic The Ohio State University hydrocarbon exposures in US adults Kadry AM, Lin YS, Elfaramawi M, P.122 Sonawane B Qualitative review of recent USEPA U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, TSCA occupational inhalation exposure University of Arkansas for Medical assessments: Recommendations for Sciences & Toxicology and Risk future assessments Assessment Consulting Services Bare J, Maskrey J, Hallett L, Hamaji C, Unice K P.128 Cardno ChemRisk Disaster Risk Analysis of Cellular Coverage P.123 Feeny N, Guikema S, White A Environmental monitoring and University of Michigan application of a chemical fate prediction model for risk assessment of P.129 human pharmaceuticals in Japanese Exposure Data Extraction and Data river water Integration Using litstream™ for Kobayashi N, Tsuchiya Y, Tabata M, Systematic Review Komatsubara Y, Eriguchi T, Ikarashi Y Hobbie KA, Riley K, McCoy J, Snow SJ, National Institute of Health Sciences Williams A, Feiler T, Henning C, Hubbard H ICF

Final Program 31 Tuesday

10:30 AM – 12:00 PM 10:30 AM – 12:00 PM 10:30 AM – 12:00 PM 10:30 AM – 12:00 PM 10:30 AM – 12:00 PM

Salon A Salon B Salon C Salons DE Salons FG T2-A Energy Perceptions T2-B Symposium: Systemic Risks, T2-C Symposium: Applying the T2-D Symposium: Improving T2-E Symposium: Risk and Narratives Uncertainty, and Governance Key Characteristics Approach for Infrastructure Operability Assessment, Economic Evaluation, Chair: Nick Pidgeon Chair: Pia-Johanna Schweizer Hazard Identification and Risk After Disasters Through Better and Decisions, Part 2 Assessment of Chemical Induced Quantification of Uncertainty Chair: James K. Hammitt 10:30 AM T2-A.1 10:30 AM T2-B.1 Cancer and Non-Cancer Effects Chair: Allison Reilly Narratives and Discourse Networks: Modeling risk and decision-making in Chair: Xabier Arzuaga 10:30 AM T2-E.1 Understanding Elite Construction an information-rich social environment: 10:30 AM T2-D.1 Cross Validation and the Random of Risk and Benefit Attributes About the CHIME project 10:30 AM T2-C.1 Leveraging co-benefits from Expert Hypothesis; validating expert Nuclear Energy Barton CM, Demuth J, Morss RE, Bergin Examples of using key characteristics interdependent infrastructure on DOD judgment Jenkins-Smith H, Silva C, Ripberger J, SM of carcinogens in cancer hazard installations to improve post-disaster Cooke RM, Marti HD, Mazzuchi TA Gupta K, Fox A* Arizona State University identification by National Toxicology operational readiness Resources for the Future, TU Delft University of Oklahoma Program Magoulick PF, Reilly AC 10:50 AM T2-B.2 Wang A University of Maryland 10:50 AM T2-E.2 10:50 AM T2-A.2 Making sense of science for policy National Institute of Environmental Developing Estimates of the Social The role of fairness in early making: What does the SAPEA report Health Sciences (NIEHS) 10:50 AM T2-D.2 Costs of Air Pollutants and Their characterization of new technologies: mean for risk analysis Modeling Uncertain and Dynamic Uncertainty Using Reduced Complexity Effects on risk beliefs and selective Renn O 10:50 AM T2-C.2 Interdependencies of Infrastructure Models exposure Institute for Advanved Sustainabiloity A key characteristics approach to Systems Using Stochastic Block Models Gilmore EA, Heo J, Muller N, Tessum C, Song H, Lu H, McComas KA Studies (IASS) organizing and assessing upstream Yu JZ, Baroud H Hill J, Marshall J, Adams P Purdue University, Annenberg Public toxicity information Vanderbilt University Clark University Policy Center, Cornell University 11:10 AM T2-B.3 Zeise L, Sandy MS, Elmore S, LaMerrill Layers of probability . Applications and MA, Smith MT 11:10 AM T2-D.3 11:10 AM T2-E.3 11:10 AM T2-A.3 theoretical problems CalEPA Office of Environmental Health Risk assessment of ship allision in Potential Influences of Income and Citizen engagement with the Sahlin NE Hazard Assessment, University of extreme fjord crossings - A systematic Food Price Trends on Global Patterns of risks, uncertainties and everyday Lund University California Berkeley, University of review . Foodborne Disease implications of future low-carbon California David Askeland T, Dorum C, Johansen Hoffmann SA, Muhammad A, Meade B energy system transitions in the 11:30 AM T2-B.4 IL, Randrup-Thomsen S, Terndrup USDA Economic Research Service industrial town of Port Talbot in South Governance of systemic risks 11:10 AM T2-C.3 Pedersen P, Eidem M Wales Schweizer PJ Demonstrations of The Utility, Norwegian Public Roads Administration 11:30 AM T2-E.4 Pidgeon NF, Henwood KL, Groves C, Institute for Advanced Sustainability Feasibility, and Challenges Using the Co-Benefits, Countervailing Risks, and Cherry C, Thomas G, Roberts E Studies Potsdam Key Characteristics in Systematic 11:30 AM T2-D.4 Cost-Benefit Analysis Cardiff University Assessments of Carcinogenicity Sources of uncertainty in Wiener JB, Graham JD Sponsored by: Chappell GA, Borghoff SJ, Wikoff DS interdependent infrastructure and their Duke University, Indiana University 11:30 AM T2-A.4 Foundational Issues in Risk Analysis ToxStrategies, Inc. implications Understanding risk perception and trust Specialty Group Reilly A, Baroud H, Flage R Sponsored by: in risk communication from a Social 11:30 AM T2-C.4 University of Maryland Society for Benefit-Cost Analysis, and Identity Approach Evaluation of the Mechanistic and Economics and Benefits Analysis Specialty Elgueta HE Toxicological Evidence on Benzo[a] Sponsored by: Group Universidad de Magallanes Pyrene-Induced Male Reproductive Engineering and Infrastructure Specialty Effects Using the Key Characteristics Group Sponsored by: Approach Risk Communication Specialty Group Arzuaga X, Newhouse K, Yost E, Gibbons C, Beverly B, Congleton J US Environmental Protection Agency

Sponsored by: Dose Response Specialty Group

32 Society For Risk Analysis Annual Meeting Tuesday

10:30 AM – 12:00 PM 10:30 AM – 12:00 PM 10:30 AM – 12:00 PM 10:30 AM – 12:00 PM 10:30 AM – 12:00 PM

Salon H Salon J Salon K Salon 1 Salon 2 T2-F Symposium: Advances T2-G Cattle to Kids: T2-H Symposium: Risk T2-I Data-Driven Decision-Making: T2-J Ecological Risk, Resilience, in Antibiotic Resistance Applied Risk Analysis Assessment and Communication Implications for Policy and the Law and Adaptive Management Risk Assessment Chair: Julia Coxen Approaches for Emerging Chair: Sweta Chakraborty in a Changing World Chair: Jade Michelle Products and Materials Chair: Amanda Bailey 10:30 AM T2-G.1 Chair: Treye Thomas 10:30 AM T2-I.2 10:30 AM T2-F.1 Disease spread risk assessment of the Data science 'for good'? Intelligence-led 10:30 AM T2-J.1 Approaches to Address Spread and German cattle trade network: static and 10:30 AM T2-H.2 policing Community as an equal partner Risk Characterization for Antibiotic temporal network analysis Responsible Innovation of Schweizer VJ for region-based climate change Resistance Bassett J, Koher A, Steinbach I, Hoevel P, Nanotechnology in Food and University of Waterloo vulnerability, risk, and resilience Chabrelie A, Mitchell J* Valdano E, Darbon A, Poletto C, Colizza V, Agriculture Sectors assessments Michigan State University Lentz HHK Grieger K, Kuzma J 10:50 AM T2-I.3 Cains M, Henshel D TU Berlin North Carolina State University FRCaSTing chemical risks: developing Indiana University 10:50 AM T2-F.2 and implementing new national A systematic review and meta-analysis 10:50 AM T2-G.2 10:50 AM T2-H.3 priorities to review existing chemicals 10:50 AM T2-J.2 of antimicrobial resistance in the water Recommendations for (medical) Responsible innovation for biofriendly Bailey L, Allen M, Carter C, Holmes G Ecological Risk Assessment as the and wastewater environments: Key guidelines’ setting process plastics Environmental Protection Authority te planning tool for Adaptive Managment research needs for risk assessment (meta-guidelines) Negri C, MacDonell M, Biwer B, Picel Mana Rauhī Taiao and Sutainability Planning Hamilton KA, Joshi SM, Garner E, Ashbolt Eisinger F K, Pozan T, Rose C, Tapia A, Nutter G, Landis WG N, Pruden A Aix-Marseille Univ, Inserm, Institut Williams S, Davis T 11:10 AM T2-I.4 Western Washington University Arizona State University Paoli-Calmettes Argonne National Laboratory Environmental Governance of the High Plains Aquifer: What irrigation policy 11:10 AM T2-J.3 11:10 AM T2-F.3 11:10 AM T2-G.3 Sponsored by: looks like on, or below, the ground Addressing the need for the The SusySafe Enhanced Model Metagenomic Approaches to Advanced Materials and Technologies Zwickle A, Feltman B quantitative risk assessment of gene for Assessing Choking Risk in Advancing Relative Resistome Risk Specialty Group Michigan State University drives Assessment Children: an update after one year of Eikenbary SR, Brown EA, Landis WG Pruden A, Oh M, Garner ED, Zhang L implementation Sponsored by: Western Washington University Virginia Tech Gregori D, Lorenzoni G, French M, Risk, Policy & Law Specialty Group Berchialla P 11:30 AM T2-J.4 11:30 AM T2-F.4 University of Padova, Italy Combined toxic effects of beta- Spatial and temporal dispersion of cypermethrin and thiacloprid on antibiotic resistance genes through 11:30 AM T2-G.4 zebrafish (Danio rerio) bioaerosol emissions from municipal Adopting a Cumulative Risk Wang YH, LI XF, Wang XQ*, Wang Q, Yang sewage Assessment Perspective to Support GL Seong D, Al Saif A, Norman RS, Hoque S* Decision-Making in the Work Zhejiang Acedemy of Agricultural University of South Carolina Environment Sciences Williams PRD, Rossner A, Clougherty J, Sponsored by: Rice G, Niemeier RT Sponsored by: Microbial Risk Analysis Specialty Group E Risk Sciences, LLP, Clarkson University, Ecological Risk Assessment Specialty Drexel University, U.S. EPA, CDC/NIOSH Group Sponsored by: Applied Risk Management Specialty Group

Final Program 33 Tuesday

1:30 PM – 3:00 PM 1:30 PM – 3:00 PM 1:30 PM – 3:00 PM 1:30 PM – 3:00 PM 1:30 PM – 3:00 PM

Salon A Salon B Salon C Salons DE Salons FG T3-A Natural Hazard Perception T3-B Roundtable: How Can We T3-C Symposium: Cyber Risk T3-D Symposium: Social Media, Big T3-E Economic Analysis of and Communication Bridge the Gap Between Safety as an Experimental Discipline Data, Risk Analysis, and Disasters Extreme or Rare Events Chair: Steve Ackerlund Culture Research and Risk Science? Chair: Fabio Massacci Chair: Benjamin Rachunok Chair: Ali Gungor Chair: Marja Ylonen 1:30 PM T3-A.1 The safety culture concept is widely 1:30 PM T3-C.1 1:30 PM T3-D.1 1:30 PM T3-E.1 Probability vs . consequences in public acknowledged and used in high-risk and Iterative learning for dynamic cyber- Urban disruption propagation through Indicator of Municipal Resources for the perceptions of tornado risk safety critical industries . However, risk system vulnerability analysis the lenses of public alerts and social Reduction of Disaster Risk Allan JN, Ripberger JT, analysts and scientists rarely discuss the Chatterjee S, Thekdi S media information Pinheiro EG, Ferentz LMS, Stringari D Ramasubramanian M, Krocak MJ, Cho J, safety culture concept . Conversely, safety Pacific Northwest National Laboratory Garcia Tapia AGT, Ramirez Marquez JRM University Center for Studies and Cokely ET, Silva CL, Jenkins-Smith HC culture experts seldom relate the concept and University of Richmond-Virginia Stevens Insttute of Technology Research on Disasters University of Oklahoma to risk, risk assessment and manage- 1:45 PM T3-C.2 1:45 PM T3-D.2 1:45 PM T3-E.2 ment . But is not a good safety culture 1:45 PM T3-A.2 dependent on having the “right” shared Estimating cyber risk from experiments Understanding population recovery A Dynamic Model of Cybersecurity “Hey @weather, I’m really getting tired safety norms, beliefs, values and prac- with cyber ranges and CTFs patterns after disasters from mobile Investment of huddling my little girls in the closet”: tices, founded on the “best” principles Di Tizio G, Massacci F phone data Krutilla K, Alexeev A, Jardine E, Good D Using Twitter to examine risk messages, and knowledge, including those of risk University of Trento Yabe T, Tsubouchi K, Fujiwara N, School of Public and Environmental risk perceptions, and responses during analysis and management? And is not the Sekimoto Y, Ukkusuri SV Affairs, Indiana University 2:00 PM T3-C.3 tornadoes risk experts reliant on insights on organ- Purdue University 2:00 PM T3-E.3 Demuth JL, Smith D, Vickery J, Lazrus H, isational issues to adequately assess and Improving Decision-Support for 2:00 PM T3-D.3 Henderson J, Morss R, Ash K manage risk? Why then this separation Cybersecurity and Other Information- Health burden associated with extreme National Center for Atmospheric Research between these fields? This roundtable Poor Risk Management Environments Methods for using Twitter to cold and hot temperatures and daily discusses these issues . The main aims Evenhaugen ST, Stevens SI* understand community resilience temperature fluctuations over winter 2:00 PM T3-A.4 are to increase our understanding of Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Rachunok BA, Bennett JB, Nateghi R and summer months in Ontario, Community-level climate risk what creates this separation, and discuss Agency Purdue University Canada perceptions: linking social capital, self- what we can do to improve the current Drudge C, Greco SL*, Kim JH, Copes R 2:15 PM T3-C.4 2:15 PM T3-D.4 efficacy and the intention to act situation . Public Health Ontario Jensen O Cyber risk and resilience: challenges An agent-based model of subsidized 2:15 PM T3-E.4 National University of Singapore Panelists: and opportunities flooding insurance Grid resilience as a common pool • Kathleen Sutcliffe (USA) Linkov I Washington VN, Guikema SD, Tonn GL, 2:15 PM T3-A.5 US Army Engineer Research and Mondisa JL resource: Comparing willingness to • Nick Pidgeon (UK) Communicating risk for a safer society- Development Center University of Michigan, Delaware pay for electricity infrastructure in India A survey of risk information disclosure • Sonja Haber (USA) Department of Natural Resources and and US regarding potential Natech accidents 2:30 PM T3-C.5 Environmental Control Gupta K, Ripberger JT, Jenkins-Smith H, in Japan Sponsored by: The Work-Averse Cyber Attacker Model: Silva CL Lin L, Cruz A Foundational Issues in Risk Analysis Theory and Evidence From Two Million 2:30 PM T3-D.5 University of Oklahoma Kyoto University Specialty Group Attack Signatures A data-driven framework for user, Allodi L, Massacci F*, Williams JM provider, and community behavior Sponsored by: Sponsored by: University of Trento toward infrastructure services risks Society for Benefit Cost Analysis and EBASG Risk Communication Specialty Group Zimmerman R Sponsored by: New York University Security and Defense Specialty Group Sponsored by: Engineering and Infrastructure Specialty Group

34 Society For Risk Analysis Annual Meeting Tuesday

1:30 PM – 3:00 PM 1:30 PM – 3:00 PM 1:30 PM – 3:00 PM 1:30 PM – 3:00 PM

Salon H Salon J Salon K Salon 1 T3-F Roundtable: Food safety T3-G Symposium: Disasters, T3-H Symposium: Decision Making T3-I Symposium: Derivation of Human Health Based Water Guidance for – An Integrated Approach Governance, Conflict, and Risk in Managing Risk: The Prickly Noncarcinogens: Is it time to Change the Standard Default Approach? to Risk for Resilient and Chair: Elisabeth Gilmore and Paradoxical Hard Part Chair: Patrick Levallois Sustainable Management Chair: Charles Redinger Chair: Myriam Merad 1:30 PM T3-G.1 1:30 PM T3-I.1 2:15 PM T3-I.4 This roundtable aims to share and Natural disasters, armed conflict and 1:30 PM T3-H.1 Current default exposure values in Use of CalTOX as a standardized exchange experiences and state-of-the- institutions Influencing the C-Suite and Board of setting drinking water guidance: exposure model to account for oral, art on integrated approaches to food Tennant E, Gilmore EA Directors present status and main issues inhalation and dermal intake from safety . The concept of resilience will be Clark University Barbi GJ Levallois P, Goeden HM drinking water discussed in the light of current food Becton Dickenson, Emeritus Institut National de Santé Publique du Soshilov A 1:45 PM T3-G.2 safety practices and the following points: Québec, Université Laval, Minnesota CalEPA Supply Chain Resilience in the Context 1:45 PM T3-H.2 Department of Health 1 . Food safety in France and Europe: of Natural Disasters The human and the system in 2:30 PM T3-I.5 Strengths, weaknesses, prospects Kurth MK, Linkov I Organizational Decision Making 1:45 PM T3-I.2 Embracing the elephant in the room: 2 . General presentation of the Pralim Risk and Decision Science Team, US O'Reilly MV, Barbi G, Boelter FW, Impact of incorporating high water the critical role of breastmilk transfer working group (Anses) Army Research and Development Center Redinger CF intake rates during early life on water as a major driver of PFOA, PFOS, and 3 . Discussion around the microbiological State University of New York (SUNY) guidance derivation PFHxS water guidance . part 2:00 PM T3-G.3 School of Public Health Greene CW, Goeden HM Goeden HM, Greene CW, Jacobus JA 4 . Societal aspect Quantification of a game-theoretic Minnesota Department of Health Minnesota Department of Health model of pre-disaster relocation for two 2:00 PM T3-H.3 The panelists: U .S . coastal cities Latent Dirichlet Allocation and the 2:00 PM T3-I.3 Sponsored by: • Moez Sanaaa (ANSES) Zhou Y, Bier VM, Hecht J Evolving Language of Risk Determination of data-derived Exposure Assessment Specialty Group • Frédérique Audiat-Perrin (ANSES) University of Wisconsin-Madison, Redinger CF exposure values and uncertainty factors for the derivation of health protective • Jean-Christophe Augustin (Expert) University of Vermont Institute for Advanced Risk Management drinking water guideline for manganese • Myriam Merad (CNRS) 2:15 PM T3-G.4 2:15 PM T3-H.4 Valcke M, Bourgault MH, Gauvin D, Strategic entry points for Total health and navigating the risk Sponsored by: Barbeau B, Rodriguez MJ, Vaillancourt C, implementation of renewables to decision triangle Haddad S, Bouchard M, Levallois P Resilience Analysis Specialty Group improve sustainability and peace Redinger CF, Barbi G, O'Reilly M, Boelter Institut National de Santé Publique du outcomes FW* Québec, University of Montréal, École Michener SR, Olson MS RHP Risk Management Inc. Polytechnique de Montréal, University Drexel University Laval, Institut Armand-Frappier 2:30 PM T3-H.5 2:30 PM T3-G.5 Warnings of Cyber Threats And Active Stress Testing for Electric Grid Risk Management Resilience Faber I, Pate-Cornell E DeMenno MB, Broderick RJ, Jeffers RF, CA Jones KA Bosque Advisors Sponsored by: Occupational Health and Safety Specialty Sponsored by: Group Resilience Analysis Specialty Group, and Risk and Development Specialty Group

Final Program 35 Tuesday

1:30 PM – 3:00 PM 3:30 PM – 5:00 PM 3:30 PM – 5:00 PM 3:30 PM – 5:00 PM 3:30 PM – 5:00 PM

Salon 2 Salon A Salon B Salon C Salons DE T3-J Emerging Challenges in T4-A Risk Communication T4-B Foundational Issues T4-C Critical Infrastructure, T4-D Symposium: Data-Driven Risk and Decision Making Best Practices, Part 1 in Risk Analysis, Part 1 – Big Cyber, and Information Risks Decision Making and Risk Analysis Chair: Doug Bessette Chair: Laura Rickard Data and Data Analytics Chair: Travis Trammell Chair: Elnaz Kabir Chair: Hiba Baroud 1:30 PM T3-J.1 3:30 PM T4-A.1 3:30 PM T4-C.1 3:30 PM T4-D.1 The intriguing link between religion Strength-Based Risk Communication 3:30 PM T4-B.1 National Critical Functions: a Necessary Comparative Assessment of the Risk and vaccination: the role of religious Jardine CG, Lines LA Rethinking Resilience Analytics Evolution in Critical Infrastructure Risk Factors Leading to Suicide Attempts affiliation and philosophical and moral University of the Fraser Valley, University Eisenberg DA, Seager TP, Alderson DL Management among Male and Female Youths: A beliefs in vaccine evaluations of Alberta Naval Postgraduate School and Arizona Evenhaugen ST Predictive Analytics Approach Kuru OK, Lu HL, Stecula DS, Chan SC, State University Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Wei Z, Dave SM, Mukherjee S* Jamieson KHJ, Albarracin DA 3:45 PM T4-A.2 Agency University at Buffalo, The State University University of Pennsylvania, University of Telling stories about sustainable 3:45 PM T4-B.2 of New York Illinois Urbana Champaign seafood: Using narrative persuasion in Data-Driven Risk Analysis with Small 3:45 PM T4-C.2 aquaculture risk communication Data: A Bayesian Approach Proactive Identification of Infrastructure 3:45 PM T4-D.2 1:45 PM T3-J.2 Rickard LN, Yang JZ, Liu V, Boze T Yu JZ, Baroud H of Concern in the Crisis-Action Decision A multiple decision-maker approach Decision Analysis and Risk & the University of Maine, SUNY Buffalo Vanderbilt University Environment to allocating resources to prepare and Regulation of Bitcoin Grace T respond to disruptions Gokhale S 4:00 PM T4-A.3 4:00 PM T4-B.3 Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Landowski B, MacKenzie CA* Sejong University Scientists' goals for risk communication Artificial intelligence in environmental Agency Iowa State University Besley J, Dudo A health science and decision making: 2:00 PM T3-J.3 Michigan State University insights from the 11th Annual Research 4:00 PM T4-C.3 4:00 PM T4-D.3 The Risk of the Inhumane Algorithm Triangle Environmental Health Experts and Executives – Exploring the Socio-spatial vulnerability analysis of Gray NG, Ferson S 4:15 PM T4-A.4 Collaborative Summit Differences in the Perceptions of Cyber interdependent water-transportation University of Liverpool Measuring and Explaining Public Goals Colley SK, MacDonald Gibson J Risk infrastructures for Public Participation University of North Carolina-Chapel Hill Fister A Soltanisehat LS, Mohebbi SM* 2:15 PM T3-J.4 Bidwell D, Schweizer PJ University of Oklahoma University of Oklahoma Legal Frameworks and Governance University of Rhode Island 4:15 PM T4-B.4 Options to Promote Arctic Cyber The human side of systemic risks can 4:15 PM T4-C.4 4:15 PM T4-D.4 Resilience 4:30 PM T4-A.5 inform the use of big data and new Risky Business: Framing Risk Hotspot identification in spatial systems Klasa KA, Trump BD, Linkov I Anticipating or Accommodating to analytic methods Assessment for IoT Inclusive Networks by the use of local Moran’s University of Michigan School of Public Public Concern? Risk Amplification and Goble R Henshel DH, Alexeev A, Cains MG, Dobias Stødle K, Flage R, Guikema SD Health, US Army Corps of Engineers the Politics of Precaution Re-examined Clark University K University of Stavanger Wardman JK, Lofstedt R Indiana University 2:30 PM T3-J.5 University of Nottingham, King's College 4:30 PM T4-B.5 4:30 PM T4-D.5 Perceived risk of oil spills under ice London Performance weighting- what’s a 4:30 PM T4-C.5 Predicting Daily Power Outages Using a Bessette DL, Gunn GE, Rutty M, Tarabara relevant question? A novel approach A Quantitative Risk Analysis Of Nation Bayesian Model Averaging Approach VV, Richardson RB Sponsored by: to the question of out-of-sample State Supported Computational Kabir E, Guikema SD Michigan State University Risk Communication Specialty Group performance . Propaganda University of Michigan Hemming V Trammell T Sponsored by: The University of British Columbia Stanford University Management, Sponsored by: Decision Analysis and Risk Specialty Group Science & Engineering Engineering and Infrastructure Specialty Group Sponsored by: Security and Defense Specialty Group

36 Society For Risk Analysis Annual Meeting Tuesday

3:30 PM – 5:00 PM 3:30 PM – 5:00 PM 3:30 PM – 5:00 PM 3:30 PM – 5:00 PM

Salons FG Salon H Salon J Salon K T4-E Risk Communication: T4-F Using QMRA to Inform Risk Management Decisions T4-G Roundtable: Promoting T4-H Symposium: Risk and Issues of Contamination Chair: Amir Mokhtari Risk Management Analysis Resilience Observatories: and Consumption Quality, and Reaching Out Methods, Tools and Results Chair: Dominc Balog-Way 3:30 PM T4-F.1 4:15 PM T4-F.4 to the Decision Makers Chair: Damien Serre A Quantitative Microbial Risk Management of Salmonella risks in Chair: Willy Røed 3:30 PM T4-E.1 Assessment model to evaluate the powdered infant formula products This roundtable asks three interrelated 3:30 PM T4-H.1 Promoting Private Well Water impact of free chlorine concentration Sanaa M, Duret S, Kooh P, Boni M, questions: 1) How do we best improve Observatories, long term resilience Quality Monitoring in Peri-Urban in wash water during processing of Maignien T, Caron Z, Bougeard S, Arnich quality of analyses supporting risk monitoring: a review Neighborhoods Without Community romaine lettuce contaminated with E . N, Cerf O, Membre J management decisions? 2) How do we Serre D, Bourlier B, Picot O, Heinzlef C*, Water Infrastructure: A Randomized- coli O157:H7 in the U .S . ANSES make SRA most useful to real-world, Davies N Controlled Trial Mokhtari A, Santillana Farakos SM, UMR 241 EIO, Université de la Polynésie 4:30 PM T4-F.5 in-the-trenches risk management decision MacDonald Gibson J, Stillo F Davidson GR, Pouillot R, Williams EN, Van makers? and 3) How do we attract those Française A comparative quantitative assessment University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill Doren JM in-the-trenches decision makers into SRA? of human exposure risks to various 3:45 PM T4-H.2 FDA The panelists will give some initial reflec- 3:45 PM T4-E.2 antimicrobial resistant bacteria among tions, followed up by discussions among Insights on the conceptual and 3:45 PM T4-F.2 U .S . ground beef consumers Removing the yuck out of recycled the panelists and the audience . Several operational distinctions between risk, Development of Health Effects water: the effect of water source and Zhang Y, Arthur TM, Schmidt JW, Wheeler ongoing initiatives run by the Applied Risk resilience and sustainability Endpoint Dose Response and QMRA name on perceived risk TL, Wang B Management Specialty Group (ARMSG) will Myriam Merad CM Models for Healthcare Associated MRSA McClaran NM, Behe BK, Huddleston P, University of Nebraska-Lincoln and be introduced . One example is a literature CNRS and Clostridium difficile Fernandez RT Roman L. Hruska U.S. Meat Animal review of quality principles across domains 4:00 PM T4-H.3 Michigan State University Lin JA, Verhougstraete M, Weir MH* Research Center in risk management . Another example is The Ohio State University a battery of analysis quality tests (AQTs) Assessing resilience to floods in an 4:00 PM T4-E.3 Sponsored by: holistic perspective 4:00 PM T4-F.3 that can be used by risk managers and Public Perceptions of Food Contamina- Microbial Risk Analysis Specialty Group risk analyst practitioners to evaluate and Heinzlef CH, Serre DS Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment tion Risks: A Simulation Experiment on judge the quality of risk analyses and to Avignon University and Escherichia coli O157:H7 Incidence the Psychological Impact of Incident support effective risk management . The Evaluation: Fresh Vegetables in Nsukka 4:15 PM T4-H.4 Severity and Intentionality battery is specifically designed to: 1) make and Enugu, Southeast Nigeria are a Island Earth: Towards Collective Nan X, Verrill L, Daily K, Kim J key features of analysis quality understand- Public Health Hazard Intelligence for Social-Ecological University of Maryland able to non-specialist decision makers; 2) Chigor VN, Onuora VC, Ibangha II, Resilience 4:15 PM T4-E.4 fully disclose the limitations of the analysis Nweze NO, Amaechina EC, Ogbonna JC, for advising decisions; and 3) explain the Davies N Understanding variations in consumer Chernikova TN, Golyshin PN implications of those limitations . We will University of California Berkeley attitude toward farm-raised fish University of Nigeria, Bangor University run this roundtable as a workshop . That 4:30 PM T4-H.5 Yang S, Witzling LC, Shaw BR, Runge K, is, in addition to a discussion among the Resilience observatories in overseas Hartleb C, Peroff DM panelists, we will seek opinions from the territories: research perspectives University of Wisconsin-Madison audience, provoking lively debate . Serre D 4:30 PM T4-E.5 Panelists: UMR 241 EIO, Université de la Polynésie Involving citizen experts in science Française communication: Evidence from the • John Lathrop documentary film Under the Dome • Terje Aven Sponsored by: • Steve Ackerlund Qin C, Xu J, Wong-Parodi G Resilience Analysis Specialty Group, and Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Peking • Patricia Larkin Risk and Development Specialty Group University, Stanford University Sponsored by Sponsored by: Applied Risk Management Specialty Group Risk Communication Specialty Group

Final Program 37 Tuesday

3:30 PM – 5:00 PM 3:30 PM – 5:00 PM

Salon 1 Salon 2 T4-I Symposium: Derivation T4-J Symposium: Wildfire of Human Health Based Risk Management – Current Water Guidance: Challenges Status, Future Projections and of Assessing Emerging Approaches to Reducing Risk Contaminants and Mixtures Chair: Alison Cullen Chair: Chris Greene 3:30 PM T4-J.1 3:30 PM T4-I.1 An analysis on the effectiveness of Novel methodology for deriving water Prescribed fires . screening values for pharmaceuticals Jose E, Zhuang J*, Rana A and application for contextualizing University at Buffalo potential human health risk of ambient detections 3:45 PM T4-J.2 Suchomel A, Goeden HM* Wildfire characteristics as predictors of Minnesota Department of Health firefighting resource demand Podschwit HR, Cullen A 3:45 PM T4-I.2 University of Washington Comparative potency evaluation for PFAS drinking water values 4:00 PM T4-J.3 Baird SJS, Smith CM Wildfire decision support tools in theory Massachusetts Dept of Environmental versus in the field: an exploratory study Protection Rapp CE, Rabung EAL, Wilson RS, Toman E 4:00 PM T4-I.3 Ohio State University Class-based Assessments for Drinking Water Contaminants with Limited 4:15 PM T4-J.4 Toxicity Information Wildfire Risk Management - Current Lampe BJ Status, Future Projections and NSF International Approaches to Reducing Risk Cullen AC, Podschwit H 4:15 PM T4-I.4 University of Washington Challenges in evaluating the full impact of petroleum releases on drinking water 4:30 PM T4-J.5 Steenson RA, Hellmann-Blumberg U Burning Concerns: Wildfires and the CalEPA SF Bay Regional Water Quality problem of insurability in California Control Board, CalEPA Department of Wilson SJ Toxic Substances Control King's College London

Sponsored by: Sponsored by: Exposure Assessment Specialty Group Decision Analysis and Risk Specialty Group

38 Society For Risk Analysis Annual Meeting Wednesday

8:30 AM – 10:00 AM 8:00 AM – 9:00 AM 8:30 AM – 10:00 AM 8:30 AM – 10:00 AM 8:30 AM – 10:00 AM

Salon A Salon B Salon H Salon J Salon K W1-A Risk Communication W1-B Special Session: W1-F Organizations, W1-G Managing Risks of W1-H Symposium: Recent Best Practices, Part 2 Emergence of Emerging Risks Systems and Resilience Nanomaterials, Radionuclides, Advances in the Occupational Chair: Ragnar Lofstedt at DHS Panel Discussion Chair: Aleksandar Jovanovic Natech, & Through Inspections Health and Safety of Advanced Chair: Benjamin Trump Chair: Deniz Marti Materials and Technologies 8:30 AM W1-A.1 Emerging risks are events or actions that, 8:50 AM W1-F.2 Chair: James Ede Transparency at the Swedish Forest if realized, could contribute to significant Business Disruption Associated with 8:30 AM W1-G.1 Agency: What does the evidence show? consequences to various aspects of Extreme Events and Pathways to Engineered nanomaterials and water 8:30 AM W1-H.1 Lofstedt RE daily life . Where such risks are either in Planning for more Robust Recovery reuse: Lessons learned from seven-year Occupational safety and health King's College London their early phases of existence or likely to Helgeson J, Nierenberg C research activities at IIT Delhi India and challenges of emerging technologies manifest in the near term (2-5 years for National Institute of Standards and identified issues ahead Geraci CL 8:50 AM W1-A.2 DHS), emerging risks can be the result of Technology, National Oceanic and Kumar A, Singh D, Parsai T National Istutute for Occupational Safety Conflit and the mining industry: how emerging technology development and Atmospheric Administration Indian Institute of Technology Delhi, and Health (NIOSH) psychosocial monitoring can enlighten commercialization, changing social or India 9:10 AM W1-F.3 risk communication environmental conditions, financial well- 8:50 AM W1-H.2 Palma-Oliveira J, Cristino N being and public health, among many Learning Lessons about Risk and 8:50 AM W1-G.2 NIOSH work in advanced materials and University of Lisbon others . Their uncertainty, complexity, and Resilience: Reflections from NATO Management of Risk from Hard-to- manufacturing: applying traditional potential for significant disruption require Advanced Research Workshops Detect Radionuclides in Low-Level techniques to new technologies 9:10 AM W1-A.4 dedicated policy solutions to balance risk Hall JR, Hall IS Radioactive Waste Dunn KL What can they learn? Using learning and benefits on a national level . Cardiff University Pinkston KE, Esh DW, Ridge AC, Desotell CDC/NIOSH outcomes to improve the link between LT risk communication and intended The US Department of Homeland Sponsored by: US Nuclear Regulatory Commission 9:10 AM W1-H.3 Security is currently producing an response Resilience Analysis Specialty Group Practical Handling Strategies for St Clair A, Finn H, Haegeli P, Gregory R, ‘Emerging Risk Matrix’ that will help iden- 9:10 AM W1-G.3 Advanced Materials and Technologies: Klassen K tify emerging risks of concern, and assist Practical framework for Natech risk Teasing Out Specifics from General Simon Fraser University, ChoiceWorks policymakers and other stakeholders and option evaluation for chemical Recommendations Ltd. Halfmoon Bay with the task of how to best address their management under the disaster Shatkin JA, Ede JD associated challenges . This session will scenario in Kansai region of Japan Vireo Advisors, LLC Sponsored by: include presentations from US Assistant Ito L, Tokai A, Nakakubo T, Nguyen H, Secretary Bryan Ware (Department of Risk Communication Specialty Group Kojima N 9:30 AM W1-H.4 Homeland Security - Cyber, Infrastructure, Osaka University Occupational Safety of Nanomaterials: and Resilience Policy) . Additional meth- Strategies for a Future with Emerging odological discussion around risk and 9:30 AM W1-G.4 Technologies resilience analysis for emerging risk will Third party inspections and Elder A be offered by Dr . James H . Lambert and certifications as a risk management University of Rochester Dr . Igor Linkov, respectively . Roundtable mechanism discussions and Q&A will follow . Farber G Sponsored by: U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Participants: Advanced Materials and Technologies Specialty Group, and Occupational Health • Hon . Bryan Ware (Asst Secretary, DHS) – Sponsored by: and Safety Specialty Group DHS Needs and Current R&D Applied Risk Management Specialty Group • Dr . Igor Linkov (US Army Corps of Engineers) – Risk and Resilience Quantification for Emerging Risks • James H . Lambert (University of Virginia) – Risk Analysis and Systems Engineering

Final Program 39 Wednesday

8:30 AM – 10:00 AM 8:30 AM – 10:00 AM 10:30 AM – 12:00 PM 10:30 AM – 12:00 PM 10:30 AM – 12:00 PM

Salon 1 Salon 2 Salon A Salon B Salon C W1-I Symposium: Standards W1-J Symposium: Visual W2-A Symposium: Addressing W2-B Symposium: Cultural W2-C Symposium: Identification, of Certainty in Scientific Cues and Perceptions of Human Trafficking Risk Property Risk Analysis Assessment, and Management Risk Decision-Making Risk: Modern Agriculture in Chair: Seth Guikema Chair: Robert Waller of the Risks Associated with Chair: Patricia Larkin the Era of Social Media Chemicals and Materials in Chair: Camille Ryan 10:30 AM W2-A.1 10:30 AM W2-B.1 the Department of Defense 8:30 AM W1-I.1 Risk Analysis as a Critical Tool for Applying social discounting to cultural Chair: Andrew Rak Evidentiary reliability of alternative 8:30 AM W1-J.1 Human Trafficking property risk analysis methodologies in support of class Risk Perception and Attitudes Predict Coxen J, Guikema S Waller R 10:30 AM W2-C.1 certification for product liability, Brain Response to Food Technology University of Michigan Protect Heritage Corp., Canadian Department of Defense Chemical and mislabeling, and failure to warn Infographics Museum of Nature, Queen's University Material Risk Management Program litigation Davis T, LaCour M, Beyer E, Finck J, Miller 10:45 AM W2-A.2 Underwood PM, Rak A, Vogel CM, Paley Cantor RA M Using System Dynamics to Set Strategic 10:50 AM W2-B.2 M* Berkeley Research Group LLC Texas Tech University and Merck Animal Priorities to Address Human Trafficking Characterizing multi-hazard risks for Department of Defense and Noblis Health Caddell JD lands, assets, resources, and people 8:50 AM W1-I.2 United States Military Academy associated with the U .S . Department of 10:50 AM W2-C.2 Perceptions of bias: does the standard 8:50 AM W1-J.2 the Interior Assessing Supply Chain Risks of Critical of certainty change when politics The Framing and Agenda-Setting 11:00 AM W2-A.3 Wood NJ, Pennaz AB, Ludwig KA, Jones Chemicals and Materials for National comes into play? Effects of the Mass Media on the Farm- Risk factors for the existence of illicit JM, Sherba JT, Henry KD, Ng P Defense Dourson M Level Impacts of GM Crops massage parlors United States Geological Survey Escola SA, Rak A*, Bruckner M Toxicology Excellence for Risk Galata Bickell E, Kalaitzandonakes MH White AG, Guikema SD Department of Defense and Noblis Assessment University of Missouri University of Michigan 11:10 AM W2-B.3 Challenges to integrated risk 11:10 AM W2-C.3 9:10 AM W1-I.3 9:10 AM W1-J.3 11:15 AM W2-A.4 management from a collection care Using Dates of Historical Site Standards of Certainty in Interpreting, How Can Behavioral Science Help with Homeland Security Investigations Law perspective Operations to Determine Possible PFAS Assessing and Managing Risk Critical Thinking About Risk? Enforcement Snell S, Tompkins W* Use at Former Military Sites Guidotti TL McFadden BR, Riis J Renken D Smithsonian Institution Meyer AK Occupational + Environmental Health & University of Delaware, Behavioralize National Intelligence University Army Corps of Engineers Medicine 11:30 AM W2-B.4 9:30 AM W1-J.4 11:30 AM W2-A.5 Challenges to integrated risk 11:30 AM W2-C.4 9:30 AM W1-I.4 Monetizing Disinformation in the Modeling operations of human management from a provider (OPS, Possible Impacts to National Defense Managing uncertainties in controversial Attention Economy: media signals and trafficking networks for effective Risk Management) perspective . from Changes in Occupational policy environments: a reflection on the the case of GMOs interdiction Hall D, Tkac K* Standards for Chromium low-dose radiation debate Ryan CD, Schaul A, Butner R, Swarthout J Maass KL, Sharkey T, Martin L, Melander Smithsonian Institution Bruckner M, Rak D, Bryant S Lindberg JCH Bayer Crop Science C, Barrick K, Samad T Noblis King's College London, Imperial College Northeastern University Sponsored by: London Sponsored by: Applied Risk Management Specialty Group Sponsored by: Decision Analysis and Risk Specialty Group Sponsored by: Security and Defense Specialty Group Sponsored by: Applied Risk Management Specialty Group Risk, Policy & Law Specialty Group

40 Society For Risk Analysis Annual Meeting Wednesday

10:30 AM – 12:00 PM 10:30 AM – 12:00 PM 10:30 AM – 12:00 PM 10:30 AM – 12:00 PM 10:30 AM – 12:00 PM

Salons DE Salon H Salon J Salon K Salon 1 W2-D Symposium: Assessing W2-F Integrating Data Sources into W2-G Urban Resilience W2-H Symposium: State-of-the-Art W2-I Exposure Assessment: the Resilience of Urban Systems QMRA: From Pathogen Survival and Social Equity Exposure Models and Data Quality Innovations, Models, and Methods Under Climate Change Data to Whole Genome Sequencing Chair: Hanne van den Berg for Evaluating Environmental, Chair: Chris Greene Chair: Renee Obringer Chair: Ainsley Otten Community, Consumer Product, 10:30 AM W2-G.1 and Workplace Exposures: Part 1 10:30 AM W2-I.1 10:30 AM W2-D.1 10:30 AM W2-F.1 Bringing (social) equity into the Chair: Pamela Williams Assessing Exposure Using an Image- Improving Operational Resilience of Home style frying of steak and meat equation: decision-making for more based Land Cover Classification Model Municipal Water Treatment Under A products: survival of Escherichia resilient cities 10:30 AM W2-H.1 Mayo MJ, Marsh CM Changing Climate coli related to dynamic temperature van den Berg HJ Environmental and community Gradient Hoover PA, Camp JV profiles Harvard University exposure models used to evaluate Vanderbilt University Pesciaroli M, Chardon JE, Delfgou EHM, human exposure under EPA's TSCA 10:50 AM W2-I.2 Kuijpers AFA, Wijnands LM, Evers EG* 10:50 AM W2-G.2 program Contaminated site segregation 10:50 AM W2-D.2 National Institute for Public Health and A framework for analyzing urban Fehrenbacher MC, Wong EM* approaches for reasonable exposure The Missing Piece in Climate–Demand the Environment pathological reaction to disasters US EPA point concentrations for a human Nexus Models: A comprehensive Huang T, Kung YH health risk assessment; a case study exploration of the measures of heat 10:50 AM W2-F.2 National Cheng Kung University 10:50 AM W2-H.2 Rodriguez RR stress Integrating Whole Genome Sequences Consumer Product and Occupational Lindenwood University Maia D, Kumar R, Nateghi R into a microbial risk assessment model 11:10 AM W2-G.3 Exposure Models Used to Evaluate Purdue University for Salmonella spp . in ground chicken Modelling and predicting drinking Human Health Risks under TSCA 11:10 AM W2-I.3 Tanui CK, Karanth S, Pradhan AK water contamination risk in North Chemical Evaluation Program Estimating Sustainable Fish 11:10 AM W2-D.3 University of Maryland Carolina using Bayesian belief networks Wong E, Tiwari R* Productivity: Effect on Remediation Understanding natural and human to enhance community resilience EPA Goals at Contaminated initiation and transmission of 11:10 AM W2-F.3 Mulhern RE, Roostaei J, MacDonald Pfeiffer D, Anderson P cascading hazards Incorporation of whole genome Gibson J 11:10 AM W2-H.3 Arcadis Robinson C, Borsuk M sequencing data into the exposure University of North Carolina at Chapel Hierarchy of Consumer Product and Duke University assessment module of risk assessment: Hill Occupational Exposure Modeling Tools 11:30 AM W2-I.4 a case study for Salmonella in chicken to Support Health Risk Assessments Vapor Intrusion of 1,4-Dioxane: Does it 11:30 AM W2-D.4 Karanth S, Tanui CK, Pradhan AK 11:30 AM W2-G.4 under REACH program Pose a Risk? Projecting the interdependent water University of Maryland, Center for Food Incentivized Forests and Capacity Qian HQ, Zaleski RZ Sager SL, Offenberger S, Forsberg N, and electricity use into the future under Safety and Security Systems Building for Resilience ExxonMobil Biomedical Sciences, Inc. Bell C different climate change scenarios Smachylo J Arcadis U.S., Inc. Obringer R, Kumar R, Nateghi R 11:30 AM W2-F.4 Harvard University 11:30 AM W2-H.4 Purdue University Development of a transmission Exposure Modeling for Integrated Sponsored by: dynamics model for Toxoplasma gondii Sponsored by: Human Health and Ecological Risk Exposure Assessment Specialty Group Sponsored by: infection in humans Resilience Analysis Specialty Group and Assessment Engineering and Infrastructure Specialty Rani S, Dubey JP, Pradhan AK Risk and Development Specialty Group von Stackelberg KE Group University of Maryland, United States NEK Associates LTD Department of Agriculture Sponsored by: Sponsored by: Exposure Assessment Specialty Group and Microbial Risk Analysis Specialty Group Occupational Health and Safety Specialty Group

Final Program 41 Wednesday

10:30 AM – 12:00 PM 1:30 PM – 3:00 PM 1:30 PM – 3:00 PM 1:30 PM – 3:00 PM 1:30 PM – 3:00 PM

Salon 2 Salon A Salon B Salon C Salons DE W2-J Conflict and Collaboration W3-A Media Representations W3-B Foundational Issues in Risk W3-C Symposium: Decision and W3-D Symposium: Risk Analysis Chair: Zachary Collier of Risk Analysis, Part 2 – Uncertainty Risk Analysis in a Digital Era of Cybersecurity in Critical Chair: Hang Lu and Risk Conceptualizations Chair: Jun Zhuang Infrastructure Systems 10:30 AM W2-J.1 Chair: Tony Cox Chair: Unal Tatar Signals, metrics, and modeling for 1:30 PM W3-A.1 1:30 PM W3-C.1 identifying emerging partnerships for Decipher social construction of risks: 1:30 PM W3-B.1 Interplay of online and offline social 1:30 PM W3-D.1 innovation Comparing hydropower, GMOs and Causal possibility for risk analysis with networks for rumor spreading and Is it a Natural Disaster or a Cyber Thorisson H, Linkov I, Trump BD, Keisler nuclear power controversies in China limited causal knowledge debunking during natural disasters Security Attack? The US Electric JM, Collier ZA, Polmateer TL, Lambert JH Jia H, Deng L Cox T Agarwal P, Hunt K, Zhuang J Power Grid and Critical Infrastructure Keyrus USA Department of Communication, Cornell Cox Associates, University of Colorado University at Buffalo Protection University Baggott S, Santos JR 10:50 AM W2-J.2 1:45 PM W3-B.2 1:45 PM W3-C.2 George Washington University The influence of membership on 1:45 PM W3-A.2 Automatic uncertainty analysis: a Tweet Diffusion Life-cycle: A Twitter Tale the perceived legitimacy of risk CRISPR benefit, risk, and ambivalence: compiler that lets legacy software of Hurricanes 1:45 PM W3-D.2 management recommendations made The impact of the documentary handle uncertain inputs Aziz RA, Zhuang J Overview of uncertainty-tolerant by the EPA’s science advisory board Human Nature on scientists’ views of Gray N, De Angelis M, Ferson S* State University of New York at Buffalo decision support modeling for Gray SG, Drummond C, Arvai J human gene editing Institute for Risk and Uncertainty cybersecurity University of Michigan, Ross School of Howell EL, Scheufele DA 2:00 PM W3-C.3 Chatterjee S, Bhattacharya A* Business, and Erb Institute for Global University of Wisconsin-Madison 2:00 PM W3-B.3 Harnessing Social Media Data to Pacific Northwest National Laboratory Sustainable Enterprise Risk: A holistic framework for resilience Understand Regional Climate Change 2:00 PM W3-A.3 Logan TM, Williams TG, Guikema SD Attitudes 2:00 PM W3-D.3 11:10 AM W2-J.3 Climate Salience Across Partisan News University of Michigan Bennett JB, Rachunok BA, Flage R, Attack graph based probabilistic cyber Assessing the Effectiveness of Media Nateghi R risk analysis Collaborative Projects at R1 Forde SL 2:15 PM W3-B.4 Purdue University Keskin OF, Tatar U, Poyraz OI, Pinto CA Universities: A Mixed-Methods The State University of New York at Risk Aggregation in Dependency Old Dominion University and University Approach . Buffalo Networks 2:15 PM W3-C.4 at Albany, State University of New York Bogomoletc E, Eng N, Berube D Helenius L, Keisler J, Linkov I Pitfalls of big data for risk analysis North Carolina State University, 2:15 PM W3-A.4 US Army Engineering Research and Bier VM 2:15 PM W3-D.4 Pennsylvania State University The effects of exposure to fake news Development Center University of Wisconsin-Madison Implications of COTS Technologies for about climate change Critical Infrastructure Cyber Risk 11:30 AM W2-J.4 Drummond C, Siegrist M, Arvai J 2:30 PM W3-B.5 2:30 PM W3-C.5 Nussbaum B Plan for the worst, negotiate for the University of Michigan, ETH Zurich Fitting the false and stating Feedback learning and confirmation University at Albany best: value of risk information in knowledge of the unknowable: bias in detection of false information in negotiation with evolving preferences 2:30 PM W3-A.5 Structural non-identifiability and social media following Extreme Events 2:30 PM W3-D.5 Collier ZA, Lambert JH Media coverage of gene editing in the consequences of modelling that John R, Byrd K Cyber Resilience Analysis: A Functional Collier Research Systems China: A comparative study of legacy ignores it University of Southern California Dependency Approach media and science blogs Schmidt PJ, Emelko MB, Thompson ME Tatar U Sponsored by: Bao L University of Waterloo Sponsored by: University at Albany Decision Analysis and Risk Specialty Group UW-Madison Security and Defense Specialty Group Sponsored by: Sponsored by: Sponsored by: Foundational Issues in Risk Analysis Engineering and Infrastructure Specialty Risk Communication Specialty Group Specialty Group Group

42 Society For Risk Analysis Annual Meeting Wednesday

1:30 PM – 3:00 PM 1:30 PM – 3:00 PM 1:30 PM – 3:00 PM 1:30 PM – 3:00 PM 3:30 PM – 5:00 PM

Salon H Salon K Salon 1 Salon 2 Salon A W3-F Natural Hazard and W3-H Symposium: State-of-the-Art W3-I Roundtable: Combating W3-J Symposium: Risk and W4-A Symposium: The Perception Urban Resilience Exposure Models and Data Quality Human Trafficking Resilience: At a Crossroads of Scientific Uncertainty and Chair: Huang for Evaluating Environmental, Chair: Seth Guikema Chair: Benjamin D. Trump Risk/Technology Acceptance Community, Consumer Product, Chair: Angela Bearth and Workplace Exposures: Part 2 This roundtable will address the complex 3:45 PM W3-F.1 task of combating Human Trafficking . 1:30 PM W3-J.1 Influence of Severe Storms on Power Chair: Pamela Williams We have assembled a panel of experts The Science and Practice of Resilience 3:30 PM W4-A.1 System Resilience from the academic, law, and law Linkov I, Trump B, Keisler J Communication of uncertainties: Silveira A, Lester HD 1:30 PM W3-H.1 enforcement disciplines to discuss their US Army Engineer Research and Challenges and some unwanted effects University of South Alabama Community-Based Exposure Modeling experiences and challenges in decreasing Development Center Siegrist M for Climate-Related Disasters and Other the prevalence human trafficking . This ETH Zurich 4:00 PM W3-F.2 Applications global problem has far-reaching impacts 1:45 PM W3-J.2 Natural variability of best-estimate Chaisson CF, Chari R, Osorio JC, and these experts will discuss what they Resilience for Better Risk Governance: 3:45 PM W4-A.2 coastal flood depth return periods Madrigano J, Diskin K have learned from such a complicated Towards an Inclusive Approach Citizen Science: People’s risk and Meyer MR, Johnson DR* The LifeLine Group, RAND Corp, problem and what we can do as a risk Renn O benefit perceptions when sharing Purdue University NYC-Environmental Justice Alliance analysis community . Each member of Institute for Advanced Sustainability genomic data for research the roundtable with have 5-7 minutes to Studies (IASS) Bearth A, Siegrist M 4:15 PM W3-F.3 1:45 PM W3-H.2 introduce themselves and discuss their Consumer Behavior, Institute for 2:00 PM W3-J.3 Assessing resilience of coastal systems Task-Based Worker and Consumer expertise . The remaining time will address Environmental Decisions (IED), ETH to natural disasters: a scenario- Exposure Modeling Using Probabilistic some prepared questions and questions Some reflections on the nexus between Zurich informed methodology for the case Approach from the audience that will address their risk and resilience study of Venice (Italy) Armstrong T, Williams PRD, Drolet D knowledge in the human sex and labor Aven T 4:00 PM W4-A.3 Sperotto A, Bonato M, Torresan S, Critto TWA8HR Occupational Hygiene trafficking domain . University of Stavanger Risk perceptions, disgust, and A, Lambert JH, Linkov I, Marcomini A Consulting, E Risk Sciences, Retired consumer preferences regarding the 2:15 PM W3-J.4 Ca Foscari University Participants: use of human urine-derived fertilizers 2:00 PM W3-H.3 Disruption of Priorities in Large-Scale for domestic agriculture • Seth Guikema - University of Michigan 4:30 PM W3-F.4 Modeling aggregate and cumulative Systems • Kayse Maass - Northeastern University Segrè Cohen A, Love N, Arvai J Risk and Resilience in Building Design chemical exposures from near and far Lambert JH • Bridgette Carr - University of Michigan University of Michigan Joyner MD, Kurth M, Linkov I field sources University of Virginia • Ray Renken - DHS Homeland Security Northeastern University, United States Price P, Isaacs K, Dionisio K, Cohen Hubal 4:15 PM W4-A.4 Investigations 2:30 PM W3-J.5 Army Corps of Engineers E Paging Dr . Jarvis: Evaluating the US Environmental Protection Agency Cyber aspects of fake news acceptance of advice from an “A .I ”. vs . a Sponsored by: Sponsored by: Trammell T, Pate-Cornell E human expert Resilience Analysis Specialty Group 2:15 PM W3-H.4 Risk, Policy & Law Specialty Group Stanford University Larkin C, Drummond C, Arvai J Approaches to modeling infectious University of Michigan agent transmission in workplaces Sponsored by: Ramachandran G Decision Analysis and Risk Specialty Group 4:30 PM W4-A.5 Bloomberg School of Public Health, Public skepticism of autonomous Johns Hopkins University vehicles: Complex messaging effects Dixon GN 2:30 PM W3-H.5 Ohio State University Exposure modeling: Letʼs not forget data quality Sponsored by: LaKind J Risk Communication Specialty Group LaKind Associates, LLC

Sponsored by: Exposure Assessment Specialty Group and Occupational Health and Safety Specialty Group Final Program 43 Wednesday

3:30 PM – 5:00 PM 3:30 PM – 5:00 PM 3:30 PM – 5:00 PM 3:30 PM – 5:00 PM 3:30 PM – 5:00 PM

Salon B Salon C Salons DE Salon H Salon J W4-B Symposium: Foundational W4-C Symposium: Early Warning W4-D Symposium: Data- W4-F Risk Characterization W4-G Symposium: Systems Issues in Risk Analysis, Part 3 Systems for Emerging or Disruptive Driven Risk Modeling Using of Microbiological Hazards Thinking and Interdisciplinary Chair: Roger Flage Technologies in Countering Predictive Analytics Approach Chair: Moez Sanaa Approaches for Building Resilience Weapons of Mass Destruction Chair: Sayanti Mukherjee Chair: Tom Logan 3:30 PM W4-B.1 Chair: Anthony Barrett 3:30 PM W4-F.1 Probabilistic failure analysis of complex 3:30 PM W4-D.1 Using farm practice variables as 3:30 PM W4-G.1 systems using Bayesian networks 3:30 PM W4-C.1 A Spatial and Temporal Analysis of predictors of Listeria spp . prevalence in Building Community Resilience: El-Awady A, Ponnambalam K Integrated System for Discovery of Impact of Climatic and Physical Factors pastured poultry farms A Framework and Approach for University of Waterloo Emerging Technologies in Countering on Bridge Health Golden CG, Rothrock Jr. MJ, Mishra A Measuring People's Access to Essential Weapons of Mass Destruction Aziz RA, Mahbub N, Paul HK, Mukherjee University of Georgia, United States Services 3:45 PM W4-B.2 Sin S, Ackerman G, Barrett T, Maxewell M S*, Zhuang J Department of Agriculture Logan TM, Guikema SD Economic risk index for pipeline University of Maryland State University of New York at Buffalo University of Canterbury vandaliztion in the niger delta region 3:45 PM W4-F.2 of nigeria 3:45 PM W4-C.2 3:45 PM W4-D.2 Exploring the relationship between 3:45 PM W4-G.2 Ekiugbo A, Amiolemhen P, Ariavie GO Elicitation of expert judgment Prediction and Evaluation of Sediment- product testing of fresh produce and Decision maker driven multi- University of Benin for technology identification and and Infrastructure-related Failure consumer risk infrastructure recovery modeling for characterization Risks on Bogotá’s Sewer System: A Hartnett E, Wilson M, Paoli G disaster risk reduction modeling 4:00 PM W4-B.3 Ackerman GA, Barrett A spatiotemporal analysis Risk Sciences International Bristow DN Climate change attribution during and University at Albany, ABS Group Fontecha JE, Agarwal P, Torres MN, University of Victoria following Hurricane Irma: The role of Rodriguez JP, Mukherjee S 4:00 PM W4-F.3 experience and vulnerability 4:00 PM W4-C.3 University at Buffalo Risk categorization of federally 4:00 PM W4-G.3 Wong-Parodi G, Garfin DR, Silver RC Machine Learning Models for regulated fish establishments in A Social-Ecological Approach to Risk: Stanford University, University of Technology Identification and 4:00 PM W4-D.3 Canada using the Canadian Food Managing Overheating in Senior, California, Irvine Characterization Investigating the risk factors causing Inspection Agency's Establishment- Low-Income Residences Maxwell MB, Bills A, Schmidt B, Barrett T widespread wildfires: a county level based Risk Assessment Model Tsoulou I, He R, Andrews CJ, Mainelis G, 4:15 PM W4-B.4 University of Maryland, ABS Group study applied to the state of California Savoie S, Racicot M, Leroux A, Plante R, Senick J Constructing an area-based Masoudvaziri N, Sabbaghtorkan M, Shi H, Mackay A, Quessy S Rutgers University socioeconomic status index in the 4:15 PM W4-C.4 Mukherjee S Canadian Food Inspection Agency context of environmental justice Risk-Based Prioritization of State University of New York at Buffalo 4:15 PM W4-G.4 assessment across Canada: A Principal Technologies in Countering Weapons 4:30 PM W4-F.5 Integrating big data analytics into Components Analysis Approach of Mass Destruction 4:15 PM W4-D.4 Evidence and Analysis Debunk predictive models for the societal Chakraborty L, Scott D, Thistlethwaite J, Barrett AM, Ackerman GA Power outage prediction for natural Speculations about Raw Milk Risks impact of natural hazards Henstra D, Rus H ABS Consulting / ABS Group disasters using synthetic power Azzolina N, Coleman M*, Onusic S, Smith Boakye J, Gardoni P, Murphy C University of Waterloo network generation and simulation S, Heckman J, McAfee M University of Illinois at 4:30 PM W4-C.5 Zhai C, Guikema SD, Chen T, White A Coleman Scientific Consulting Urbana-Champaign Sponsored by: Perspectives on Technology Discovery University of Michigan Foundational Issues in Risk Analysis for Countering Weapons of Mass Sponsored by: 4:30 PM W4-G.5 Specialty Group Destruction 4:30 PM W4-D.5 Microbial Risk Analysis Specialty Group Resilience quantification of complex Grabowski RH, Sin SS, Ackerman GA, Evaluating factors affecting crime rates infrastructure systems Barrett AM in the state of New York: A county-level Hackl JH Defense Threat Reduction Agency analysis ETH Zurich Ganguly P, Mukherjee S Sponsored by: University at Buffalo, The State University Sponsored by: Security and Defense Specialty Group of New York Resilience Analysis Specialty Group & Risk and Development Specialty Group Sponsored by: Engineering and Infrastructure Specialty Group

44 Society For Risk Analysis Annual Meeting Wednesday

3:30 PM – 5:00 PM 3:30 PM – 5:00 PM 3:30 PM – 5:00 PM

Salon K Salon 1 Salon 2 W4-H Roundtable: State-of-the-Art Exposure Models and W4-I Exposure Assessment of Air W4-J Decision Making Under Data Quality for Evaluating Environmental, Community, Pollutants: New Frontiers in the Uncertainty: Theories and Methods Consumer Product, and Workplace Exposures: Part 3 Assessment of Public Health Risks Chair: Jalal Ali Chair: Pamela Williams Chair: Christopher Greene Exposure models have long been used to evaluate human exposures and health risks 3:30 PM W4-J.1 in environmental, community, and workplace settings . However, advances in science 3:30 PM W4-I.1 A quantitative development cycle and technology, greater emphasis on aggregate and cumulative exposures and risks, Insights from simple sensors for air model with risk analysis features and consideration of more complex exposure scenarios has led to the development of quality and children’s health Denard S, Mengel S, Ertas A, Ekwaro- novel and more sophisticated exposure modeling tools . What are the plethora of expo- MacDonell M, Chang YS, Zvolanek E, Osire S sure models currently available for use and which ones should be adopted for a given Hummel J, Sankaran R, Tapia A, Pozan T, Texas Tech University purpose? What are the differences between regulatory and non-regulatory exposure Nutter G, Rose C 3:45 PM W4-J.2 models and those developed for use in different countries? What types of data inputs Argonne National Laboratory are needed for screening-level versus higher-tiered models? To what extent have these Do off-the-shelf decision support tools models been peer-reviewed and evaluated? What are the strengths and limitations of 3:45 PM W4-I.2 for strategic risk management do what existing exposure models and modeling data daps or research needs? The purpose Measurement and Modeling of Urban they promise? of this 3-part symposium/roundtable session is to present an overview of current Personal Air Pollution Exposure in Hong Haffar M, Bessette D, Gregory R, Arvai J state-of-the-art exposure models for evaluating environmental, community, consumer Kong University of Michigan, Michigan State product, and workplace exposures and to discuss issues related to data quality and Lau AKH, Che W, Frey HC* University, Decision Research model validation to improve future modeling efforts . Part 3 will included a more Hong Kong University of Science and 4:00 PM W4-J.3 in-depth discussion and audience participation and Q/A with the symposia presenters Technology, North Carolina State to further explore the similarities and differences among the various exposure models, University What to do when the data is not current and future challenges for exposure modeling, and a path forward for advancing sufficient? Performance weighting 4:00 PM W4-I.3 the quality and predictive capability of human exposure models . A key theme of this and an IDEA for eliciting improved discussion will be: What can the risk analysis community do to help? Increasing risk of emergency room quantitative judgements . admissions for bronchiolitis in infants Hemming V Roundtable participants include: Sponsored by: exposed to air pollution The University of British Columbia • Cathy Fehrenbacher (U .S . EPA) Exposure Assessment Specialty Group and Gallo E, Bottigliengo D, Bressan S, Geremia S, Lanera C, Zagolin L, Marson 4:15 PM W4-J.4 • Ritesh Tiwari (U .S . EPA) Occupational Health and Safety Specialty G, Gregori D Measuring the consequences of • Rehan Choudhary (U .S . EPA) Group University of Padova incomplete objective sets using a • Hua Qian (Exxon Biomedical) Monte Carlo approach in selected • Katherine von Stackelberg (Harvard 4:15 PM W4-I.4 applications of multiattribute models School of Public Health) Particulate matter exposure of teaching and simulated datasets • Christine Chaisson (LifeLine) professionals during a typical chalk and Kusumastuti SA • Tom Armstrong (TWA8HR Occupational talk class University of Southern California Hygiene Consulting) Sekar A, Varghese GK, Varma MKV • Paul Price (U .S . EPA) National Institute of Technology Calicut 4:30 PM W4-J.5 • Gurumurthy Ramachandran (Johns Stochastic Input-Output Analysis: Hopkins University) Sponsored by: Comparison of methods to evaluate US Information Technology Infrastructure • Judy LaKind (LaKind Associates) Exposure Assessment Specialty Group Disruptions Ali J, Santos JR George Washington University

Sponsored by: Decision Analysis and Risk Specialty Group

Final Program 45 Author Index

Bills A ...... 44 Clougherty J ...... 33 DeNeale ST ...... 27 A B Bird SD ...... 23 C Cohen AA ...... 30 Deng L ...... 42 Aarset M ...... 25 Badding M ...... 28 Biwer B ...... 33 . . Caddell JD ...... 40 Cohen Hubal E ...... 43 Desotell LT ...... 39 Abuabara A ...... 29 Baggott S ...... 42 Block P ...... 22 Cains M ...... 33 Cokely ET ...... 34 Devleesschauwer B ...... 24 Ackerlund WS ...... 29 Bailey L ...... 33 Boakye J ...... 44 Cains MG ...... 36 Coleman M ...... 44 Dewulf B ...... 21 Ackerman G ...... 44 Bains M ...... 21 Boelter FW ...... 35 Cakmak S ...... 28 Colizza V ...... 33 Dionisio K ...... 43 Ackerman GA ...... 22, 44 Baird SJS ...... 38 Bo F ...... 29 Camp JV ...... 41 Colley SK ...... 30, 36 Diskin K ...... 43 Adams P ...... 32 Baldi I ...... 28, 29 Bogomoletc E ...... 42 Canfield CI ...... 22 Collier ZA ...... 21, 42 Di Tizio G ...... 34 Adler MD ...... 25 Balog-Way DHP ...... 20, 30 Bolger PM ...... 24. . Cantarutti L ...... 28, 29 Congleton J ...... 32 Dixon GN ...... 43 Agarwal P ...... 22, 42, 44 Bao L ...... 42 Bonato M ...... 24 . , 43 Cantor RA ...... 40 Cooke RM ...... 32 Dobias K ...... 36 Agrawal A ...... 21 Barbeau B ...... 35 Boni M ...... 37 Cao S ...... 29 Copes R ...... 23, 34 Dodd RY ...... 28 Alarcón M ...... 25 Barbi G ...... 35 Borghoff SJ ...... 32 Caron Z ...... 37 Corner A ...... 20 . . Dogan OB ...... 26 Albarracin D ...... 24 Barbi GJ ...... 35 Borsuk M ...... 41 Carrington CD ...... 24 Cortinas J ...... 20 Dolan L ...... 24 . . Albarracin DA ...... 36 Barchowsky A ...... 24 Borsuk ME ...... 24 Carr M ...... 27 Coutinho CD ...... 27 Dom N ...... 21 Albert N ...... 21 Bare J ...... 31 Bostrom A ...... 30 Carter C ...... 33 Covel C ...... 24 Donovan D ...... 31 Alderson DL ...... 36 Baroud H ...... 21, 25, 32, 36 Bottigliengo D ...... 28, 29, 45 Castillo A ...... 25 Cox EM ...... 22 Dopart PJ ...... 22 Alexeev A ...... 34, 36 Barraj L ...... 28 Bouchard M ...... 35 Cefalu M ...... 20 Coxen J ...... 40 Dorum C ...... 32 Ali J ...... 45 Barrett A ...... 44 Bouder F ...... 20 Cerf O ...... 37 Cox T ...... 42 Dotson GS ...... 31 Al Kajbaf A ...... 28 Barrett AM ...... 27, 44 Bouder FB ...... 20 Chabrelie A ...... 33 Cragin D ...... 21 Dourson M ...... 40 Allan JN ...... 34 Barrett T ...... 44 Bougeard S ...... 37 Chaisson CF ...... 43 Crawford A ...... 24 Drolet D ...... 43 Allen M ...... 33 Barrick K ...... 40 Bourgault MH ...... 35 Chakraborty L ...... 44 Cristino N ...... 39 Drouin SM ...... 29 Allodi L ...... 34 Barton CM ...... 32 Bourlier B ...... 37 Chang BS ...... 29 Critto A ...... 24, 43 Drudge C ...... 23, 34 Al Saif A ...... 33 Bartrand T ...... 26 Bowers TS ...... 26 Chang WS ...... 27 Crowther KG ...... 24, 27 Drummond C ...... 42 . , 43 Amaechina EC ...... 37 Bassett J ...... 33 Boyd A ...... 24 Chang YS ...... 29, 45 Cruz A ...... 34 Duan X ...... 29 Ameh T ...... 28 Batista BL ...... 29 Boyd AD ...... 30, 31 Chan SC ...... 36 Cullen A ...... 38 Dubey JP ...... 27, 41 Amiolemhen P ...... 44 Baum SD ...... 22 Boze T ...... 36 Chan WC ...... 28. . Cullen AC ...... 38 Dudo A ...... 36 Anderson CA ...... 27, 29 Bearth A ...... 43 Brand KP ...... 20 Chao HW ...... 29 Curran C ...... 30 . . Dunn KL ...... 39 Anderson P ...... 41 Beaulne C ...... 24. . Braswell E ...... 28 Chapman B ...... 29 Custer B ...... 28 Duret S ...... 37 Anderson SA ...... 27, 28 Beetstra M ...... 20 Bressan S ...... 45 Chappell GA ...... 32 Czajkowski J ...... 31 Dyer RD ...... 23 Anderson SK ...... 30 Beetstra MA ...... 31 Brigantic R ...... 28 Chardon JE ...... 41 . . Andrade J ...... 28. . Behe BK ...... 37 Bristow DN ...... 44 Chari R ...... 43. . Andrews CJ ...... 44 Bell C ...... 41 Broderick RJ ...... 35 Chatterjee S ...... 28, 34, 42 D E Andrews DJ ...... 24 Belov A ...... 28 Bronfman NC ...... 25 Chen C ...... 24 Andrews L ...... 22 Belzer RB ...... 23 Broniatowski DA ...... 28 Chen PC ...... 28 Dagli C ...... 22 Ede JD ...... 25, 39 Angelis A ...... 23 Bennett JB ...... 34, 42 Brossard D ...... 22 Chen T ...... 44 Daily K ...... 37 Egbokhare FA ...... 23 Aoyagi M ...... 20 Bensi M ...... 27, 30 Brown DG ...... 21 Chen Y ...... 29 Dai M ...... 29 Ehman KD ...... 27, 29 Ariaivie G ...... 28 Bensi MT ...... 27, 28 Brown EA ...... 33 Chernikova TN ...... 37 Dale AL ...... 26 Eidem M ...... 32 Ariavie G ...... 23 . . Bentley L ...... 21 Brown J ...... 22 Cherry C ...... 32 Dales R ...... 28 Eikenbary SR ...... 33 Ariavie GO ...... 27, 44 Berchialla P ...... 28, 29, 33 Brown L ...... 27, 28 Che W ...... 45 Dalla Pozza P ...... 24. . Eisenberg DA ...... 36 Armstrong T ...... 43 Berger JJ ...... 28 Brubaker SA ...... 27 Chiang SY ...... 29 Darbon A ...... 33 Eisinger F ...... 33 Arnich N ...... 37 Bergin SM ...... 32 Bruckner M ...... 40 Chiger A ...... 27 Dave SM ...... 36 Ekezie W ...... 21 Arthur TM ...... 37 Berube D ...... 24, 42 Bruine de Bruin W ...... 24 Chigor VN ...... 37 Davidson GR ...... 37 Ekiugbo A ...... 44 Arvai J ...... 42, 43, 45 Besley J ...... 36 . Bruskotter JT ...... 31 Chiu SU ...... 28 Davidson RA ...... 23 Ekwaro-Osire S ...... 45 Arvai JL ...... 22 Bessette D ...... 45 Bryant S ...... 40 Chiu SY ...... 28 Davies N ...... 37 . . El-Awady A ...... 44 Arzuaga X ...... 32 Bessette DL ...... 36 Buchanan RL ...... 23 Chiu WA ...... 20 Davis JA ...... 20 Elder A ...... 39 Ashbolt N ...... 33 Best EA ...... 31 Buchwald D ...... 30, 31 Cho J ...... 34 Davis T ...... 33, 40 Elfaramawi M ...... 31 Asher DM ...... 27 Bett C ...... 27 Burnett R ...... 20 Chou TH ...... 28 De Angelis M ...... 42 Elgueta HE ...... 32 Ash K ...... 34. . . Beverly B ...... 32 Butner R ...... 40 Chou WC ...... 28 Delfgou EHM ...... 41 Elmore S ...... 32 Askeland T ...... 32 Beyer E ...... 40 Byrd K ...... 42 Chuang YC ...... 27, 29 De Marcellis-Warin N ...... 22 Emelko MB ...... 42 Aume LL ...... 28 Bhardwaj R ...... 29 Chuanshen Q ...... 29 DeMenno MB ...... 35 Emmert JM ...... 24 Aven T ...... 43 Bhatia U ...... 28 Chu H ...... 30 Demski C ...... 20 Engemann A ...... 21 Aziken GO ...... 23. . Bhattacharya A ...... 42 Cifuentes LA ...... 25 Demuth J ...... 32 Eng N ...... 42 Aziz RA ...... 42, 44 Bidwell D ...... 36 Cisternas PC ...... 25 Demuth JL ...... 34 Eriguchi T ...... 31 Azzolina N ...... 44 Bier VM ...... 35, 42 Clark K ...... 28 Denard S ...... 45 Erren TC ...... 20

46 Society For Risk Analysis Annual Meeting Author Index

Ertas A ...... 45 Groves C ...... 32 Henstra D ...... 44 Jenkins-Smith H ...... 32, 34 Komatsubara Y ...... 31 Escola SA ...... 40 G Guidotti TL ...... 40 Henwood KL ...... 32 Jensen O ...... 34 Kooh P ...... 37 Esh DW ...... 39 Galaitsi SE ...... 25 Guikema S ...... 31, 40 Heo J ...... 32 Jeong EJ ...... 30. . Korchevskiy A ...... 29 Esmaeili B ...... 30 Galata Bickell E ...... 40 Guikema SD ...... 21, 27, 34, He R ...... 44 Jernigan M ...... 30 Kountzman J ...... 30 Euling SY ...... 29 Galesic M ...... 24 36, 40, 42, 44 Herovic E ...... 30 Jha S ...... 26 Kowalcyk BB ...... 21 Evenhaugen ST ...... 34, 36 Gallo E ...... 28, 29, 45 Guin U ...... 24 Herron M ...... 21 Jia H ...... 42 Kozal JS ...... 31 Evers EG ...... 41 Ganguly A ...... 28 Guleria A ...... 28 Hetou G ...... 27 Johansen IL ...... 32 Kozlowski W ...... 31 Ganguly P ...... 44 Gungor AG ...... 23 Hibbert K ...... 31 John R ...... 42 Kranzler EC ...... 31 Ganin AA ...... 31 Gunn GE ...... 36 Hill J ...... 32 Johnson BB ...... 23, 25 Krocak MJ ...... 34 F Gao J ...... 28 Gupta K ...... 32, 34 Hirales-Rochin J ...... 27 Johnson DR ...... 25. . , 43 Krotenberg ME ...... 29 Garcia Tapia AGT ...... 34 Gurian PL ...... 26, 27 Hirose A ...... 31 Jones JM ...... 40 Kruse J ...... 23 Faber I ...... 35 Gardezi M ...... 25 Hobbie KA ...... 31 Jones KA ...... 35 Krutilla K ...... 34 Fanaselle W ...... 27 Gardoni P ...... 44 Hocagli H ...... 28 . , 29 Jore SH ...... 20 Kuijpers AFA ...... 41 Fann N ...... 20 Garfin DR ...... 44 H Hoevel P ...... 33 Jose E ...... 38 Kuiken T ...... 25. Fan SW ...... 30 Garner E ...... 33 Hoffmann SA ...... 32 Joshi SM ...... 33 Kumar A ...... 26, 28, 39 Faraji Najarkolaie K ...... 27 Garner ED ...... 33 Haas CN ...... 26 Hollenback KS ...... 21 Jovanovic AS ...... 25, 30 Kumar R ...... 41 Farber G ...... 39 Gattinger M ...... 23 Haase V ...... 27, 29 Holley JR ...... 22 Joyner MD ...... 43 . . Kung YH ...... 41 Feder PI ...... 28. . Gauthier M ...... 24 Haber LT ...... 20 Holmes G ...... 33 Julien R ...... 26 Kurimoto M ...... 31. Feeny N ...... 31 Gauvin D ...... 35 Hackl JH ...... 44 Hoover PA ...... 41 Jung JW ...... 30 Kurth M ...... 43 Fehrenbacher MC ...... 41 Geraci CL ...... 39 Haddad S ...... 35 Hoque S ...... 33 . . Juvkam PC ...... 25 Kurth MH ...... 31 Feiler T ...... 31 Geremia S ...... 45 Haegeli P ...... 30, 39 Ho WC ...... 28 Kurth MK ...... 35 Felgenhauer TN ...... 24 Giaquinto C ...... 28, 29 Haffar M ...... 45 Howell EL ...... 42 Kuru OK ...... 36 Feltman B ...... 33 Gibb H ...... 24 Halappanavar M ...... 28 Huang CK ...... 29 K Kusumastuti SA ...... 45. . Ferentz LMS ...... 34 Gibb HJ ...... 24 Hall D ...... 40 Huang SZ ...... 27, 29, 30 Kuzma J ...... 33 Fernandez RT ...... 37 . . Gibbons C ...... 32 Hall DC ...... 25 Huang T ...... 41 Kabir E ...... 27, 36 Ferranna M ...... 25 Gilmore EA ...... 32, 35 Hallett L ...... 31 Huang WU ...... 27 Kaden DA ...... 29 Ferson S ...... 36, 42 Glaccum W ...... 27 Hall IS ...... 25, 39 Huang Y ...... 27 Kadry AM ...... 31 L Ferstenberg LB ...... 20 Glodek M ...... 21 Hall JR ...... 39 Hubbard H ...... 31 Kalaitzandonakes MH ...... 40 Finck J ...... 40 Goble R ...... 36 Hallman WK ...... 30 Huddleston P ...... 37 Kanavos P ...... 23 LaCour M ...... 40 Finkel AM ...... 21, 23, 25 Godt JG ...... 27. . Hamaji C ...... 31 Hummel J ...... 45 Kang Y ...... 29 Lai TJ ...... 28 Finn H ...... 39 Goeden HM ...... 35, 38 Hamilton K ...... 27 Hunt K ...... 42 Kanney J ...... 27 LaKind J ...... 43 . . Finster ME ...... 29 Gokhale S ...... 36 Hamilton KA ...... 26, 33 Hunt KH ...... 22 Kao SC ...... 27 Lal B ...... 30 Fister A ...... 36 Golden CG ...... 44 Hammitt JK ...... 20, 25 Hyun Kim J ...... 27 Karanth ...... 27 Lambert CE ...... 30 Fitch SE ...... 28 Goltz J ...... 30 Hardy BW ...... 30 Karanth S ...... 27, 41 Lambert JH ...... 21, 42, 43 Flage R ...... 32, 36, 42 Golyshin PN ...... 37 Hartleb C ...... 37 Kawamoto A ...... 29 LaMerrill MA ...... 32 Flannery B ...... 24 Good D ...... 34 Hartnett E ...... 21, 44 I Keire D ...... 27 Lampe BJ ...... 38 Flores RA ...... 26 Grabowski RH ...... 44 Harvell D ...... 30 Keisler J ...... 42, 43 Landis WG ...... 33 Folino F ...... 28 Grace T ...... 36 Hebbern C ...... 28 Ibangha II ...... 37 Keisler JM ...... 42 Landowski B ...... 36 Fontecha JE ...... 44 Graf KL ...... 22. . Hecht J ...... 35 . . Idada OR ...... 27 Keskin OF ...... 42 Lanera C ...... 28, 29, 45 Forde SL ...... 42 Graham JD ...... 32 Heckman BJ ...... 21 Ikarashi Y ...... 31 Kihara T ...... 29 Lange SS ...... 28 . Forsberg N ...... 41 Graham MR ...... 27 Heckman J ...... 44 Iliceto S ...... 28 Kim E ...... 30 Larkin C ...... 43 Forshee RA ...... 27. . , 28 Gray G ...... 23 Heida AJ ...... 26 Isaacs K ...... 43 Kim J ...... 37 Larkin PM ...... 23 Forth H ...... 27 Gray N ...... 42. . . Heinzlef C ...... 37 Ito L ...... 29, 39 Kim JH ...... 23, 34 Lau AKH ...... 45 Fox A ...... 32 Gray NG ...... 36 . Heinzlef CH ...... 37 Kim SC ...... 30 Lazrus H ...... 34 French M ...... 33 Gray SG ...... 42 Helenius L ...... 42 Kim UJ ...... 30. . Lee CH ...... 27 Frey HC ...... 45 Greco SL ...... 23, 34 Helgeson J ...... 39 J Kitsak M ...... 31 Lee LC ...... 27 Fujiwara N ...... 34 Hellmann-Blumberg U ...... 38 Klasa KA ...... 36 Lee S ...... 27 Greene CW ...... 35 Jacobus JA ...... 35 Furgal C ...... 24 Gregori D ...... 28, 29, 33, 45 Hemming V ...... 36, 45 Klassen K ...... 30, 39 Lei X ...... 20 Furlan E ...... 24. . Henderson J ...... 34 Jain H ...... 26 Klaunig JE ...... 30 Lemay JC ...... 26 Gregori L ...... 27 Jamieson KH ...... 24 Gregory R ...... 30, 39, 45 Henning C ...... 31 Knueven B ...... 25 Lemire M ...... 24. . Henry HGW ...... 30 . . Jamieson KHJ ...... 36 Kobayashi N ...... 31 Lentz HHK ...... 33 Grieger K ...... 33 Jardine CG ...... 36 Grieger KD ...... 25 Henry KD ...... 40 Koeser A ...... 27 Leroux A ...... 44 Henshel D ...... 33 Jardine E ...... 34 Koher A ...... 33 Lester HD ...... 25, 29, 43 Griffin BA ...... 20 Jeffers RF ...... 35 . . Groth KM ...... 23 Henshel DH ...... 36 Kojima N ...... 29, 39 Leung B ...... 31. .

Final Program 47 Author Index

Levallois P ...... 35 Maddaloni M ...... 30 Milon JB ...... 20 . . Nozick LK ...... 23 Pesciaroli M ...... 41 Rapp CE ...... 38 Liao Y ...... 31 Madrigano J ...... 43 Mishra A ...... 44 Nussbaum B ...... 42 Pfeiffer D ...... 41 Rasheduzzaman M ...... 26 Li CH ...... 28 Maeda Y ...... 27, 29 Mitchell J ...... 26, 33 Nutter G ...... 33, 45 Pham LL ...... 28 Rasheduzzaman MD ...... 27 Lien KW ...... 29 Magoulick PF ...... 32 Mohammadi S ...... 27. Nweze NO ...... 37 Phillips L ...... 29 Rasmussen P ...... 25 Liggans G ...... 27 . . Mahbub N ...... 44 Mohebbi SM ...... 36 Picel K ...... 33. . . Redinger CF ...... 29, 35 Li H ...... 29 Maia D ...... 41 Mokhtari A ...... 37 Picot O ...... 37 Reichle L ...... 27 Li HF ...... 27 Maier A ...... 30, 31 Mondisa JL ...... 34 O Pidgeon N ...... 20 Reilly A ...... 25, 32 Li J ...... 28 Maignien T ...... 37 Montibeller G ...... 23 Pidgeon NF ...... 22, 32 Reilly AC ...... 27, 32 Lila K ...... 26 Mainelis G ...... 44 . Moradi R ...... 23 Oberoi S ...... 24 Pinheiro EG ...... 34 . . Reiss R ...... 28 Lindberg JCH ...... 40 Mallampalli V ...... 24 Morfeld P ...... 20 Obringer R ...... 41 Pinkston KE ...... 39 Renken D ...... 40 Lindell MK ...... 30 Mallard T ...... 27 Morgan KM ...... 21, 24 Offenberger S ...... 41. Pinto CA ...... 42 Renn O ...... 32, 43 Lines LA ...... 36 Malterud A ...... 30 Morgan MK ...... 31 Ogbonna JC ...... 37 Pirkle C ...... 24 Repetto PB ...... 25. . Lin HC ...... 27 Mamajiwala B ...... 27 Morral AR ...... 20 Ohkubo C ...... 29 Plante R ...... 44 Ricard S ...... 24 Lin JA ...... 37 Manson S ...... 31 Morss R ...... 34 Oh M ...... 33 Plant NG ...... 27 Rice G ...... 29, 33 Lin JR ...... 29 Maples A ...... 27 Morss RE ...... 32 Ohohe O ...... 23 Plewa MJ ...... 28 Richardson RB ...... 36 Linkov I ...... 21, 25, 31, 34, Marcomini A ...... 24, 43 Mraz A ...... 26 Oiso S ...... 29 Podschwit H ...... 38 Rickard LN ...... 36 35, 36, 42, 43 Marinelli J ...... 27 Mrksic Kovacevic S ...... 20 Okada T ...... 22 Podschwit HR ...... 38 Ridge AC ...... 39 Lin L ...... 34 Marshall J ...... 32 Muckle G ...... 24. . Olson M ...... 26. . Poletto C ...... 33 Riis J ...... 40 Lin YS ...... 31 Marsh CM ...... 41 Muhammad A ...... 32. . Olson MS ...... 35 Polmateer TL ...... 21, 42 Riley K ...... 31. Lin Z ...... 28 Marson G ...... 28, 29, 45 Mukherjee S ...... 36, 44 Olugbemi A ...... 30 Ponnambalam K ...... 44 Ripberger J ...... 32 Liu KY ...... 28 Marti HD ...... 28, 32 Mulchandani A ...... 26 Olympio KPK ...... 29 Pouillot R ...... 24, 37 Ripberger JT ...... 34 Liu S ...... 30 Martinez J ...... 27 Mulhern R ...... 28 Ono K ...... 28, 29 Poyraz OI ...... 42 Roberts E ...... 32 Liu V ...... 36 Martin L ...... 40 Mulhern RE ...... 41 Onuora VC ...... 37. Pozan T ...... 33, 45 Robinson C ...... 41 Liu Z ...... 30 Maskrey J ...... 31 Muller C ...... 30 Onusic S ...... 44 Pradhan ...... 27 Rodriguez JP ...... 44 LI XF ...... 33. . . Masoudvaziri N ...... 44 . Muller N ...... 32 Orbons L ...... 21 Pradhan AK ...... 27, 41 Rodriguez MJ ...... 35 Locke J ...... 30 Massacci F ...... 34 Mundt KA ...... 31 O'Reilly M ...... 35 Prater C ...... 30 Rodriguez RR ...... 41 Lofstedt R ...... 36 Masters S ...... 26 Munir M ...... 26 O'Reilly MV ...... 35 Price P ...... 43 Roman H ...... 20 Lofstedt RE ...... 39 Maxewell M ...... 44 Munoz-Giraldo F ...... 25 Oscar T ...... 23 Pritchard C ...... 21 Roostaei J ...... 28, 41 Logan TM ...... 42, 44 Maxwell MB ...... 44 Murayama TM ...... 30 Oshomogho F ...... 28 Pruden A ...... 33 . Rose C ...... 33, 45 Lorenzoni G ...... 28, 29, 33 Mayeda A ...... 30 Murphy C ...... 44 Osorio JC ...... 43 Rose JB ...... 26 Love N ...... 43 Mayeda AM ...... 31 Murphy CP ...... 29 Owabor C ...... 28 Rossner A ...... 33 Luco N ...... 27 Mayo MJ ...... 41 Murray R ...... 21 Q Rothrock Jr . MJ ...... 44 Lu DK ...... 30 Mazzuchi TA ...... 32 Myles P ...... 21 Rowell A ...... 22 Ludwig KA ...... 27, 40 McAfee M ...... 44 Myriam Merad CM ...... 37 P Qian HQ ...... 41 Runge K ...... 37 Qian S ...... 30 Lu EH ...... 28 McAllister CA ...... 24 Pagone FJ ...... 21 Rus H ...... 44 Lu H ...... 24, 29, 32 McClaran N ...... 30 Qin C ...... 37 Ruthman RT ...... 21 Paley M ...... 40 . . Quessy S ...... 44 Lu HL ...... 36 McClaran NM ...... 37 N Palma-Oliveira J ...... 39 Rutty M ...... 36 Lundgren ML ...... 30 McClellan RO ...... 21 Ryan CD ...... 40 Nakakubo T ...... 29, 39 Paoli G ...... 20, 44 Lutzke LA ...... 22 McComas K ...... 30 Paoli GM ...... 21 Lybrand E ...... 30 McComas KA ...... 29, 30, 32 Nan X ...... 37 R Nardocci AC ...... 29. . Parker AM ...... 24 Lynch HN ...... 26 . . McCoy J ...... 31 Park JW ...... 30 Rabung EAL ...... 38 S Lynch MTK ...... 28 McFadden A ...... 27 Nateghi R ...... 34, 41, 42 Negri C ...... 33 Parsai T ...... 39 Rachunok BA ...... 34, 42 Saadeh RA ...... 30 McFadden BR ...... 40 Pate-Cornell E ...... 35, 43 Racicot M ...... 44 . . Meade B ...... 32 Neumann J ...... 20 Sabbaghtorkan M ...... 44. . Newhouse K ...... 32 Patterson E ...... 30 Rak A ...... 27, 40 Sager SL ...... 41 . . M Medina-Cetina Z ...... 29 Patterson J ...... 30 Rak D ...... 40 Melander C ...... 40 Newmier S ...... 30 Saha Turna N ...... 24 Maass KL ...... 40 Ng P ...... 40 Paul HK ...... 44 Ramachandran G ...... 43 Sahlin NE ...... 32 . . Membre J ...... 37 Peacock W ...... 29 Ramasubramanian M ...... 34 MacDonald Gibson J ...... 28, 30, 3 Meneses YE ...... 26 Nguyen H ...... 39 Samad T ...... 40 6, 37, 41 Niemeier RT ...... 33 Pennaz AB ...... 27 . , 40 Ramirez Marquez JRM ...... 34 Sanaa M ...... 37 Mengel S ...... 45 Pennetti C ...... 28 Ramsey DW ...... 27 MacDonell M ...... 33, 45 Meyer AK ...... 40 Nierenberg C ...... 39 Sandy MS ...... 32 MacDonell MM ...... 29. . Niland B ...... 27 Penn S ...... 20 Rana A ...... 38 Sankaran R ...... 45 Meyer MR ...... 43 Peroff DM ...... 37 Randrup-Thomsen S ...... 32 Mackay A ...... 44 Michener SR ...... 35 Nocco RA ...... 21 Santamaria AB ...... 29 MacKenzie C ...... 20 . . Norman RS ...... 33 Perrucci DV ...... 25 Rani S ...... 27, 41 Santillana Farakos S ...... 24 Michetti M ...... 24 Perumal V ...... 26. . Rapal KM ...... 27 MacKenzie CA ...... 20, 36 Miller M ...... 40 Notari E ...... 28 Santillana Farakos SM ...... 37. .

48 Society For Risk Analysis Annual Meeting Author Index

Santos JR ...... 42, 45 Smith CM ...... 38. Thomas G ...... 32 Varghese GK ...... 45 Williams TG ...... 21 . , 42 Zvolanek E ...... 45 Sardella A ...... 22 Smith D ...... 34 Thomas T ...... 25 Varma MKV ...... 45 Willis HH ...... 25 Zwickle A ...... 33 Sardella V ...... 22 Smith DC ...... 27, 29 Thompson ME ...... 42 Varzeas T ...... 28 Wilson M ...... 44 Zwietering M ...... 23 Sathanur A ...... 28 Smith MT ...... 32 Thompson WJ ...... 31 Verhougstraete M ...... 37 Wilson RS ...... 20, 21, 22, 24, 31, 38 Savoie S ...... 44 Smith S ...... 44 Thorisson H ...... 21, 42 Verrill L ...... 37 Wilson SJ ...... 38 Sayes C ...... 28 Snell S ...... 40 Timmons S ...... 21 Vickery J ...... 34 Winneg KM ...... 24 Scamarcia A ...... 28, 29 Snow SJ ...... 31 Tiwari R ...... 41 Vincent MJ ...... 31 Wirz CD ...... 22 Scanlon KA ...... 27 Soane EC ...... 23 Tkac K ...... 40 Vogel CM ...... 27, 40 Witzling LC ...... 37 Scharff RL ...... 21 Solano C ...... 30 Tokai A ...... 29, 39 von Stackelberg KE ...... 41 Wong E ...... 41 . . Schaul A ...... 40 . . Soltanisehat LS ...... 36 Toledo MC ...... 29 . . Wong EM ...... 41 Schell T ...... 20 Sonawane B ...... 31 Tolofari DL ...... 26 Wong JCS ...... 29. . , 30 Scheufele DA ...... 42 Song H ...... 29, 32 Toman E ...... 22, 38 W Wong-Parodi G ...... 37, 44 Schmidt B ...... 44 Soshilov A ...... 35 Tompkins W ...... 40 Wood NJ ...... 27, 40 Schmidt JW ...... 37 Spence ES ...... 22 Tonn GL ...... 34 Wade J ...... 31 Wood T ...... 26 Schmidt PJ ...... 42 Sperotto A ...... 43 Torresan S ...... 24, 43 Wagner ED ...... 28 Wu F ...... 24 Schweizer PJ ...... 32, 36 Spungen J ...... 24 . . Torres ES ...... 25 Waller R ...... 40 Wu KY ...... 27, 28, 29, 30 Schweizer VJ ...... 33 Staid A ...... 25 Torres MN ...... 44 Walpole EH ...... 22 Scott D ...... 44 . St Clair A ...... 39 Toyohiko N ...... 27 Walpole HD ...... 24 Scrafford C ...... 28 St Clair AE ...... 30 Trainor JE ...... 23 Wang A ...... 32 X Seager TP ...... 36 Stecula DS ...... 36 Trammell T ...... 36, 43 Wang B ...... 26. . , 37 Segrè Cohen A ...... 43 Steele WR ...... 28 Tramontan L ...... 28, 29 Wang D ...... 23 Xenos M ...... 22 Sekar A ...... 45 Steenson RA ...... 38 Treich N ...... 25 Wang Q ...... 33 Xu J ...... 29, 37 Sekimoto Y ...... 34 Steentjes K ...... 20 Triplett CA ...... 28 Wang W ...... 28. . Xu JH ...... 30 Senick J ...... 44 Steinbach I ...... 33 Trump B ...... 43 . . Wang XQ ...... 28, 33 Seong D ...... 33 Stevens SI ...... 34. . Trump BD ...... 21 . , 25, 36, 42 Wang YH ...... 28, 33 Serre D ...... 37 Stewart A ...... 20 Tsan YT ...... 28 Wardman JK ...... 36 Y Warin T ...... 22 Serre DS ...... 37 Stieb D ...... 20 Tsoulou I ...... 44 Yabe T ...... 34 Shank D ...... 22 Stillo F ...... 37 Tsubouchi K ...... 34 Washington VN ...... 34 . Watson JP ...... 25 Yamaguchi H ...... 30 Shao K ...... 29 Stockwell R ...... 20 Tsuchiya Y ...... 31 Yamamoto H ...... 31 Shao W ...... 25 . . Stødle K ...... 36 Tsunemi K ...... 29 Weir M ...... 26 Weir MH ...... 26, 28, 37 Yang GL ...... 28, 33 Sharkey T ...... 40 Stramer SL ...... 28 Tu KM ...... 27 Yang H ...... 27, 28 Sharp B ...... 28 Stringari D ...... 34 Tuomisto J ...... 20 Wei Z ...... 36 Wells EM ...... 25 Yang JZ ...... 24, 29, 30, 36 Shatkin JA ...... 25, 39 Subasi O ...... 28 Tyagi N ...... 26 Yang S ...... 37 Shaw BR ...... 37 Suchomel A ...... 38 Wells LM ...... 21 Wheeler MW ...... 20 Yang Z ...... 27 Sherba JT ...... 40 Summers S ...... 26 Y . Jasour Z ...... 25 Shi H ...... 44 Suresh PP ...... 29 Wheeler TL ...... 37. . U White A ...... 20, 31, 44 Yost E ...... 32 Shittu E ...... 23 Swarthout J ...... 40 Yu HL ...... 27. . . Shuang N ...... 29 Ukkusuri SV ...... 34 White AG ...... 40 UL-Huda N ...... 27 Whiting RC ...... 23 Yu JZ ...... 32, 36 Siebert P ...... 21 Yu WJ ...... 30 Siegrist M ...... 42, 43 T Underwood P ...... 27 Wiecinski PN ...... 27 Silva C ...... 32 Underwood PM ...... 40 Wiener JB ...... 24, 32 Silva CL ...... 34 Tabata M ...... 31 Unice K ...... 31 . . Wijnands LM ...... 41. Z Silveira A ...... 43 Takashi Y ...... 31 Urban JD ...... 28 Wikoff DS ...... 32 Silver RC ...... 44 Tallapragada M ...... 30 . Wikoff DW ...... 28 Zagolin L ...... 28, 29, 45 Simmons JE ...... 28 Tanghe T ...... 21 Wiles A ...... 21 Zaleski RZ ...... 41 Simon TW ...... 21 Tanui CK ...... 27, 41 V Williams A ...... 28, 31 Zeise L ...... 32 Tapia A ...... 33, 45 Williams AE ...... 28 Singh D ...... 39 Vaillancourt C ...... 35 Zhai C ...... 44 Singh R ...... 26, 27 Tarabara VV ...... 36 Williams B ...... 30 Zhang L ...... 33 Tatar U ...... 42 Valcke M ...... 35 Williams EN ...... 37 Sin S ...... 44 Valdano E ...... 33 Zhang Y ...... 37 Sin SS ...... 44 Tennant E ...... 35 Williams JM ...... 34 Zhou Y ...... 35 Terndrup Pedersen P ...... 32 van den Berg HJ ...... 41 Williams L ...... 27 Slagle KM ...... 31 Van Doren J ...... 24 Zhou Z ...... 29 Slovic P ...... 22 Tessum C ...... 32 . . Williams PRD ...... 33, 43 Zhuang J ...... 22, 38, 42, 44 Thekdi S ...... 34 . . Van Doren JM ...... 23, 37 Williams RA ...... 25 Smachylo J ...... 41 Vardavas R ...... 24 Zilko S ...... 27 Smith BA ...... 29 Thistlethwaite J ...... 44 Williams S ...... 33 Zimmerman R ...... 34

Final Program 49 Crystal Gateway Marriott – Floorplans

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