Published by CQ Press, an Imprint of SAGE Publications, Inc. www.cqresearcher.com Resurgent Is trying to recreate the Soviet bloc?

ussia is growing more assertive on the global stage, having regained its economic strength following the 1991 breakup of the Soviet Union. It has been most R active in its own region, where a tug-of-war has broken out between Russia and the (EU) as each tries to draw the nations of Eastern Europe and the Caucasus into their orbit. Ukrainian Presi dent viktor Yanukovych recently reneged on an EU trade deal, reportedly after pressure from moscow, touching off violent pro-EU protests throughout Ukraine. Russia’s efforts to maintain influence over the former Soviet republics have Russian President Vladimir Putin faces criticism for Russia’s human rights record and is seen by many experts as browbeating neighboring countries into fed speculation that President vladimir Putin wants to reconstitute forging closer economic ties. His attempts to influence former Soviet republics, notably Ukraine, have fed speculation he seeks to reconstitute the former the Soviet bloc, which Russian officials deny. meanwhile, Russia’s Soviet Union. Meanwhile, Putin and the are cooperating on Syria’s civil war and relations with the United States have deteriorated, although the two other global security issues. countries are cooperating on hot-button issues such as Iran’s nuclear program and Syria’s civil war. Russia’s relations with China are I relatively good, however, even though the Chinese have eclipsed THIS REPORT N Russia economically in recent years. THE ISSUES ...... 123 S BACKGROUND ...... 130 I CHRONOLOGY ...... 131 D CURRENT SITUATION ...... 136 E CQ Researcher • Feb. 7, 2014 • www.cqresearcher.com AT ISSUE ...... 137 Volume 24, Number 6 • Pages 121-144 OUTLOOK ...... 139 RECIPIENT Of SOCIETY Of PROfESSIONAL JOURNALISTS AwARD fOR BIBLIOGRAPHY ...... 142 EXCELLENCE N AmERICAN BAR ASSOCIATION SILvER GAvEL AwARD THE NEXT STEP ...... 143 RESURGENT RUSSIA

Feb. 7, 2014 THE ISSUES SIDEBARS AND GRAPHICS Volume 24, Number 6

• Is Russia trying to recreate Russia’s Neighbors Lean MANAGING EDITOR: Thomas J. Billitteri 123 the Soviet bloc? 124 Toward Europe or China [email protected] • Is Russia helping to bring former Soviet bloc members ASSISTANT MANAGING EDITOR: Kathy Koch , peace to the middle East? say moscow is pressuring [email protected] them to join the Eurasian • Should the United States SENIOR CONTRIBUTING EDITOR: take a tougher stance with Economic Union. Thomas J. Colin Russia? [email protected] Russia Trails U.S., China 125 CONTRIBUTING WRITERS: Brian Beary, on Key Growth Measures marcia Clemmitt, Sarah Glazer, Kenneth Jost, BACKGROUND much of its wealth comes Peter Katel , Reed Karaim, Barbara mantel, from natural gas exports. Tom Price, Jennifer weeks Russia’s Rise 130 moscow eclipsed Kiev as the Russia Faces Backlash SENIOR PROJECT EDITOR: Olu B. Davis dominant Russian principality 126 Over Immigration Policies FACT CHECKERS: michelle Harris, in the 1300s. millions of migrants from Nancie majkowski former Soviet republics fill INTERN: Kaya Yurieff The Soviet Era low-skilled jobs. 133 Josef Stalin murdered or de - ported millions of middle- Europe, China Are Key class farmers who resisted 128 Russian Trading Partners his reforms. Russia remains fairly depen - dent on Europe. 134 Chaos and Resurgence An Imprint of SAGE Publications, Inc. After the Soviet Union collapsed Chronology VICE PRESIDENT AND EDITORIAL DIRECTOR, in 1991 Russia emerged as a 131 Key events since 988. HIGHER EDUCATION GROUP: capitalist country. michele Sordi Russia Plays Leading Role 132 EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR, ONLINE LIBRARY AND in Separatist Conflicts REFERENCE PUBLISHING: CURRENT SITUATION moscow sees itself as a Todd Baldwin protector, but others view it Tensions in Ukraine differently. 136 Protests have wracked Kiev Copyright © 2014 CQ Press, an Imprint of SAGE Pub - after President viktor At Issue: lications, Inc. SAGE reserves all copyright and other Yanukovych backed out of a 137 Should the United States take rights herein, unless pre vi ous ly spec i fied in writing. European Union deal. a tougher stance with Russia? No part of this publication may be reproduced electronically or otherwise, without prior written Hot Spots, Winter Games permission. Un au tho rized re pro duc tion or trans mis- 136 Russia is under pressure to FOR FURTHER RESEARCH sion of SAGE copy right ed material is a violation of keep the Olympic Games in federal law car ry ing civil fines of up to $100,000. Sochi safe from attacks by 141 For More Information CQ Press is a registered trademark of Congressional militant Islamists. Organizations to contact. Quarterly Inc. Bibliography CQ Researcher (ISSN 1056-2036) is printed on acid- OUTLOOK 142 Selected sources used. free paper. Pub lished weekly, except: (march wk. 4) (may wk. 4) (July wk. 1) (Aug. wks. 3, 4) (Nov. wk. Continuing Tensions The Next Step 4) and (Dec. wks. 3, 4). Published by SAGE Publica - 139 Russia will likely continue to 143 Additional articles . tions, Inc., 2455 Teller Rd., Thousand Oaks, CA 91320. have a strong voice in inter - Annual full-service subscriptions start at $1,054. for national affairs. Citing CQ Researcher pricing, call 1-800-818-7243. To purchase a CQ Re - 143 Sample bibliography formats. searcher report in print or electronic format (PDf), visit www.cqpress.com or call 866-427-7737. Single reports start at $15. Bulk purchase discounts and electronic-rights licensing are also available. Periodicals postage paid at Thousand Oaks, California, and at additional mailing offices . POST mAST ER: Send ad dress chang es to CQ Re search er , 2300 N St., N.w., Suite 800, Cover: AFP/Getty Images/Alexi Nikolsky wash ing ton, DC 20037.

122 CQ Researcher Resurgent Russia BY BRIAN BEARY

up its opposition in late 2013, THE ISSUES apparently after realizing that newly concluded EU trade pacts n a visit to moldova with Russia’s former neighbors in September, Russ - could pull the post-Soviet na - O ian Deputy Prime tions irrevocably into the EU’s minister Dmitry Rogozin did orbit. “moscow has rediscov - not mince words. “Energy sup - ered the real nature of the EU: plies are important in the run- the prospect that one day up to winter,” he told his hosts. Ukraine [along with the other “I hope you won’t freeze.” ex-Soviet Union countries] . . . Rogozin’s words were a could begin to work its way veiled threat, say experts on up the ranki ngs of corruption the region, implying that if the or doing business and, with former Soviet republic signs time, even outdistance Russia,” the major pacts that it had just according to Olaf Osica, direc - negotiated with the European tor of the Centre for Eastern Union (EU), Russia might cut Studies in warsaw, Poland . 3 v

1 e off its gas supply . h The are especially c a moldova, a small, poor r wary of the EU initiative be - D

r

country in southeastern Eu - o cause in 2004 and 2007, 10 t k rope, depends heavily on i former Central and East Eu - V /

Russian natural gas. Never - s ropean communist nations e g theless, moldova is refusing a joined the EU, and many of m I

to cave to Russian pressure y them now have strained re - t t

— for now. But its far big - e lations with moscow. In fact, G ger neighbor to the north, / several of those nations are P F

Ukraine, also an ex-Soviet A the most ardent supporters of republic, is heeding moscow’s Demonstrators in Ukraine’s capital, Kiev, protest on the Eastern Partnership. And warnings. In November, Dec. 7, 2013, after President Viktor Yanukovych backed nations such as Poland and out of a trade deal with the European Union, reportedly Ukrainian President viktor under pressure from Russian President Vladimir Putin. Lithuania have painful mem - Yanukovych decided not to Moscow wants Ukraine to join the Eurasian Economic ories of Russian domination continue pursuing closer ties Union, a Russian-dominated free-trade coalition. during the Cold war era. Hav - with the EU, just days before Clashes in Ukraine between police and protesters have ing fought so hard for inde - he was due to sign an ac - turned increasingly violent, and fears are mounting that pendence from Russia, they the country may be on the brink of civil war. On Jan. 28, cord with the EU at a much- the prime minister and cabinet resigned, and restrictions now look at Russia’s economic heralded summit in vilnius, on political protest imposed weeks earlier were rescinded. revival and growing geopolit - Lithuania, capital of yet an - ical activism with unease. Such other ex-Soviet republic. In Ukraine, been going on since 2008, when the strained relations are the clearest illus - ongoing mass protests against EU began enticing Russia’s neighbors tration of moscow’s simmering tensions Yanukovych’s move have led to the into its economic sphere via its East - with the west that are being triggered prime minister’s resignation. ern Partnership initiative. The new by the increasingly assertive stance that Still reeling from Yanukovych’s aban - program promised Eastern European Russia is taking in its neighborhood donment, Swedish foreign minister Carl countries access to western Europe’s and beyond. Bildt, whose country is one of the 28 huge market if they first made their Russia strongly denies that it pres - EU members, predicted that Ukraine’s governments more efficient, democrat - sures its neighbors. Alexey Drobinin, decision would lead it “not west or east, ic and less corrupt. Although the EU senior counselor at the Russian Embassy but down,” adding, “it’s a fairly brutal did not offer them full membership, in washington, says, for instance, that a game being played” by Russia . 2 it didn’t exclude the possibility. recent Russian ban on imports of The tug-of-war between Russia and Russia was always suspicious of the moldovan wine and spirits is justified on the EU over moldova and Ukraine has Eastern Partnership but began to ramp “very hard evidence” that it’s needed to

www.cqresearcher.com Feb. 7, 2014 123 RESURGENT RUSSIA

Russia’s Neighbors Lean Toward Europe or China Several former members of the Soviet bloc say Moscow is pressuring them to join the (EEU), a free-trade coalition patterned after the European Union (EU) but dominated by Russia. Protests broke out in Ukraine in November after its government reneged on a commitment to sign trade pacts with the EU, reportedly after Russia pressured Ukraine to join the EEU instead. Russia denies pres - suring its neighbors, but experts say the EEU is designed to keep Russia’s former satellite states out of EU’s economic grasp.

Economic IA Coalition Membership of Russia and Its Neighbors N O A T I S N E A U IA Kara Sea H V Barents Sea T T SPAIN FRANCE I A IA L L S S EU members GERMANY U R EEU members SWITZERLAND Finalizing trade pacts with EU SLOVAKIA POLAND Abandoned EU pacts but has not yet applied to EEU BELARUS Abandoned EU pacts to join EEU ITALY Not members of EEU or EU; some UKRAINE are forging economic ties with China MOLDO VA e a S c k l a RUSSIA B

Mediterranean Sea TURKEY Caspian LIBYA Sea TAN ARMENIA AZERBAIJAN* Aral Sea UZBEKIS TAN LEBANON MONGOLIA ISRAEL SYRIA

EGYPT JORDAN TURKMENIS TAN KYRGYZS TAN IRAQ Red Sea SAUDI TAJIKIS TAN CHINA ARABIA IRAN KU WAIT AFGHANIS TAN * Has security agreement with Russia and energy agreement with EU

protect Russian consumers from unsafe Economic Union (EEU), a free-trade new EU trade pacts would harm food products. “There was no political and economic coalition similar to the Russian interests. “It has become al - calculation involved,” he says. 4 EU, but which would be dominated most an obsession” for Russia, said But moldova’s government sees by Russia. wiegand, who negotiated many of things differently. “This is a crucial time Gherman dismissed the EEU as “eco - the accords . 6 for my country,” said moldovan for - nomic and political nonsense.” The while Russia is no longer a super - eign minister Natalia Gherman. while EU’s market of 500 million people is power, it remains a significant inter - her governing party wants to join the far bigger and better than anything national economic force, with its EU, the Communist Party — the main Russia could offer with its nascent strength heavily concentrated in the opposition — sides with Russia, she free-trade zone, she said. 5 energy sector. It is the world’s top ex - said. The communists prefer that Gunnar wiegand, a senior EU diplo - porter of natural gas, No. 2 in oil and mol dova reject the EU and instead join mat, said it was “regrettable” that Rus - No. 3 in coal. 7 In fact, the EU gets the new Russian-sponsored Eurasian sia has wrongly concluded that the about 30 percent of its oil, gas and

124 CQ Researcher coal imports from Russia. But Russia nya and ) and in nearby coun - relies even more on the EU: The Eu - Russia Trails U.S., tries such as Uzbekistan. And with the ropean Union buys about 80 percent China on Growth United States preparing to withdraw of Russia’s gas exports, 70 percent of most of its troops from Afghanistan this its oil exports and 50 percent of its Russia’s total output of goods summer, Russia is boosting its mili tary coal exports. 8 and services — its gross domes - presence among its southern neigh - “we are more dependent on the EU tic product (GDP) — and its bors that flank Afghanistan, fearing than the EU is dependent on us,” said GDP growth rate in 2013 trailed that Afghanistan will again become a mikhail Kalugin, head of the econom - those of the United States and haven for global jihadists. 13 ic section at the Russian Embassy in China. However, Russia’s GDP meanwhile, the world’s eyes have 9 washington. per capita was about twice that been on Russia as it has prepared to Beyond Europe, Russia has elevat - host the winter Olympic Games in of China’s. Much of Russia’s ed itself from the marginal player it the Black Sea resort town of Sochi. became after the Soviet Union col - wealth comes from exports of its fears of terrorist attacks are high fol - lapsed in 1991 to a power that is now abundant natural gas. lowing suicide bombings, carried out increasingly shaping events in geopo - by suspected Islamist terrorists, of a litical hotspots, notably the middle East. train station and trolley bus in the for instance, Russia brokered a deal Economic Data for Russia, Russian city of volgograd in Decem - in September to avert a U.S.- and U.S. and China, 2013 ber that killed 34 people and wound - french-led military strike on Syria after ed many more. 14 President Putin has Syrian leader Bashar al-Assad allegedly GDP ramped up security, determined to launched a gas attack on his own avoid any more embarrassing inci - (in trillions of 15 people in the Syrian civil war, killing dollars) $15 dents or attacks. some 1,400 . 10 $15 Russia’s spotty human-rights record President Obama, who is reluctant 12 is also coming under scrutiny. In a not- 9 $6.6 to involve the United States in anoth - 6 so-subtle jab at Russia’s new anti-gay er military conflict, welcomed Russia’s 3 $2.1 law that equates homosexuality with efforts. 11 But U.S.-Russian relations 0 pedophilia, Obama has put two open - Russia U.S. China today are far from rosy. In addition to ly gay athletes in the delegation rep - supporting the EU in the struggle for Annual GDP Growth resenting the United States in the open - Eastern Europe, the United States has ing ceremony on feb. 7 . 16 condemned Russia’s worsening human (in percentage) Russia’s relations with China, which rights record under President vladimir 8% 7.6% had grown frosty during Russia’s com - 7 Putin, including a new law banning 6 munist era, have greatly improved since 5 “homosexual propaganda.” Putin also 4 2.8% they both embraced capitalism. The 3 has irked washington by giving tem - 2 1.5% two giant nations are trading more 1 porary political asylum to Edward Snow - 0 manufactured goods and raw materi - den, a former National Security Agency Russia U.S. China als and have resolved longstanding (NSA) contractor who last summer re - border disputes. vealed that the NSA was conducting GDP Per Capita fiona Hill, director of the Center on mass surveillance programs on U.S. and the United States and Europe at the (in thousands of dollars) foreign citizens’ phone and email records centrist Brookings Institution think tank $60 $52,839 as well as on the communications of 50 in washington, says China has eclipsed foreign heads of state. 12 40 Russia in industrial output and wants 30 The eruption of militant Islamist vi - 20 $14,973 Russian raw materials for its manufac - $6,569 olence in the middle East following 10 turing sector. China is busy increasing 0 the 2011 Arab Spring uprisings — in - Russia U.S. China trade and investments in Central Asian cluding in Syria — has spurred Rus - markets that were once part of the So - sia to become more assertive in the viet Union, especially Turkmenistan and region, given that its own southern Source: “World Economic Outlook,” Uzbekistan. Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and border is a hotbed of Islamist-inspired International Monetary Fund, October Tajikistan, however, retain close ties to terrorism, both inside Russia (in Chech - 2013 Russia as well . 17

www.cqresearcher.com Feb. 7, 2014 125 RESURGENT RUSSIA

Russia faces Backlash Over Immigration Policies Millions of migrants from former Soviet republics fill low-skilled jobs.

housands of Russians took to the streets of moscow last Russian students previously held. And central Asian men from October in violent anti-immigrant protests sparked by countries such as Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan fill thousands of T the fatal stabbing of a Russian man by an allegedly il - construction jobs. Armen Sahakyan, executive director of the legal immigrant from Azerbaijan. Immigrants’ stores were loot - washington branch of the Eurasian Research Analysis Institute, ed, more than a thousand rioters and 200 illegal immigrants a new Armenia-based think tank, says many workers employed were detained and moscow mayor Sergei Sobyanin called for to build facilities for the winter Olympic Games in Sochi were “radical decisions” by the Russian government to address im - non-Russians. migration policy. Russia also has experienced an influx of ethnic Russians Russia may no longer have a political union with its neigh - from other regions, especially Central Asia. They are mainly bors as in the Soviet era, but that has not stopped several mil - descendants of people who emigrated there in the 1700s and lion workers from the former Soviet republics from flocking to 1800s, when the Russian Empire was expanding southward. Russia in search of higher-paying jobs. 1 when the republics where they live emerged as independent many ordinary Russians resent the immigrants. An opinion nations in the early 1990s, the new countries made their na - poll last summer found that 53 percent want tighter immigra - tive languages, not Russian, the official tongue. This has made tion laws. 2 And anti-immigrant sentiment is on the rise. for it harder for Russian-speaking residents to prosper — notably example, 70 percent oppose migrant workers taking catering in government, where the native tongue is often required. 5 jobs, up from 54 percent in 2006. 3 Some migrants come from countries that have strained re - But with a relatively low birth rate, high death rate and an lations with Russia. A prime example is Georgia, which fought unemployment rate of about 5 percent, Russia has a labor short - a war with Russia in 2008 over Georgia’s two separatist re - age. To fill jobs, it relies on labor from poorer nations in the gions, Abkhazia and South Ossetia, which Russia supports. Of former Soviet Union. Because of their historical ties with Russia, a total population of 5 million , an estimated 1 mil - these workers can enter the country and find work, many with - lion work in Russia, says Archil Gegeshidze, the country’s U.S. out an official work permit. ambassador. most went to Russia in the 1990s when the Geor - Chinese employers investing in Russia have brought in thou - gian economy was failing. many began trading agricultural sands of Chinese workers, who, unlike Central Asian migrants, products. “Georgians in Russia tend not to assimilate as easi - require visas to enter the country. 4 ly as some other groups,” Gegeshidze says. “They like to keep many Central Asian women have taken fast-food jobs that their ties to Georgia.”

meanwhile, China’s economic influ - planned on cybersecurity and space intention to do so.” ence in Russia’s vast Siberia region is technology. Brazil also is planning to Lee feinstein, U.S. ambassador to growing as Russian residents emigrate buy Russian air defense systems. 20 Poland from 2009-12 and now a fellow westward and China boosts its invest - And in Southeast Asia, Russia is emerg - at the German marshall fund of the ment in the region, often bringing in ing as an important supplier of mili - United States, says, “Circumstances today Chinese migrant workers in the process. tary goods, notably to myanmar and are completely different than in Soviet China has provided $25 billion to ex - vietnam, and is an investor in offshore times. Putin is no democrat, and he is tend Russia’s Eastern Siberia Pacific Ocean oil and gas exploration projects. 21 consolidating his power, but Russia is pipeline to Asia in return for guaran - As Russia increasingly asserts itself not a Stalinist totalitarian state. There is teed supplies of Siberian crude oil . 18 in its region and beyond, here are greater scope for individuals” — for in - To the south, Russia and energy- some key questions being debated: stance, to travel and do business. hungry India are strengthening eco - Drobinin says that since Putin was nomic ties. The two countries are col - Is Russia trying to recreate the re-elected president in 2012 (he was laborating on Russian projects to export Soviet bloc? president from 2000-08 and prime liquefied natural gas to India. Russia The Russian government strongly minister from 1999-2000 and 2008-12), also is selling military equipment to denies that it aims to revive the de - he has actively promoted the Eurasian India, while India is selling generic funct Soviet Union. Drobinin at the Economic Union. “we see our closest pharmaceuticals to the Russians. 19 Russian Embassy says unequivocally: neighbors as our closest partners,” Drobinin In addition, Russia is forging closer “No. It is not possible to recreate what says. “we treat them as equals and do links with Brazil, with joint projects existed 25 years ago, and there is no not interfere in their domestic affairs.”

126 CQ Researcher fiona Hill, director of the Center on the United States and Eu - Russian President vladimir Putin said last summer that im - rope at the Brookings Institution in washington, sees similarities migrants from the former Soviet Union were able to assimilate. between Russia and the United States in that migrant workers in “On the whole,” he said, “our policy in the migration sphere both countries tend to come from poorer regions and take man - should be more flexible, certainly ensuring the rights of our ual jobs. for example, landscaping is a niche for migrants in indigenous citizens, but it should be more flexible so to attract Russia as it is for Latino migrants in the United States. labor resources at least.” 8 But Hill is quick to highlight one major difference. “Russia is more strategic than the U.S. in the way it uses immigration — Brian Beary in its foreign policy,” she says. for example, she says, Russia uses migrant workers’ remittances — money they send back 1 “Illegal migrants may be banned from entering Russia for 10 years,” Xinhua home — to advance its geopolitical goals. As petty revenge General News Service, April 4, 2013, http://en.ria.ru/russia/20130404/180446 936.html. against Georgia and moldova for aligning themselves with the 2 “more than half of Russians support toughening of immigration laws in European Union (EU) and NATO, Russia has threatened to relation to citizens of CIS — research,” Central Asian News Services, Aug. 15, block Georgians and moldovans from using the banking sys - 2013, http://bnews.kz/en/news/post/153656/. tem to wire money home, Hill says. Russia distrusts NATO and 3 “Russians develop hard feelings towards immigrants — poll,” Central Asia General Newswire, Aug. 1, 2013. wants the former Soviet republics to reject the EU to join Rus - 4 Evgeny Kuzmin, “migrant workers finding Opportunity in Russian far sia’s nascent free-trade zone, the Eurasian Economic Union. East,” Inter Press Service News Agency, Aug. 6, 2013, www.ipsnews.net/2013/08/ Remittances from migrant workers comprise about 12 per - migrant-workers-finding-opportunity-in-russian-far-east/. cent of Armenia’s gross domestic product (GDP), Sahakyan says. 5 See sidebar on ethnic Russians of Central Asia in Brian Beary, “Emerging Central Asia,” CQ Global Researcher , Jan. 17, 2012, pp. 29-56. Tajikistan, a small, poor former Soviet republic, has some 900,000 6 “Ratification of Russian military base deal provides Tajikistan with impor - migrant workers in Russia. Their $3.6 billion in remittances in tant security guarantees,” Jane’s Intelligence Weekly , Oct. 2, 2013, www.janes. 2012 accounted for half of Tajikistan’s GDP that year . 6 com/article/27898/ratification-of-russian-military-base-deal-provides-tajikistan- with-important-security-guarantees. Some Russians want immigration policies to give preference 7 “Russian analysts: immigrants, guest workers fertile ground for radical Is - to ethnic Russians and warn that allowing so many migrants lamism,” Interfax News Agency, may 14, 2013, http://interfaxreli.customers. from overwhelmingly muslim Central Asia into the country could ru/?act=news&div=10454. foment Islamist terrorism. 7 But for now, economic imperatives 8 “Putin says Russia needs more flexible approach to immigration,” BBC worldwide monitoring, June 11, 2013. seem to be driving Russia’s immigration policy.

Andrey Slepnev, trade minister at trade agreements with countries that Gegeshidze says, and formally left the the Eurasian Economic Commission include provisions not directly linked CIS in 2009 shortly after a Georgia- (the EEU’s rule-making body), has also to trade, he argues. Russia war fought over control of Geor - sought to dispel what he called an But Archil Gegeshidze, the Georgian gia’s secessionist regions, Abkhazia and “urban legend” that “we are trying to ambassador to the United States, believes South Ossetia. ( See sidebar, p. 132. ) The reconstitute the Soviet Union.” The EEU Russia goes way beyond what countries two countries have not had diplomatic is an economic rather than a political typically seek through trade agreements. relations since then. initiative, Slepnev said during a recent He says Russia is trying to create vari - Asked if Russia is resurrecting its visit to washington. 22 ous groupings of former Soviet republics, past political union with its neighbors, A Russian journalist who asks not with Russia as the center of gravity. Brookings’ Hill, a British national who to be named because his media out - whether it is the Commonwealth of In - has lived in Russia and speaks Russ - let bars him from giving on-the-record dependent States (CIS), a group of nine ian, says, “It depends what you mean interviews, says, “Russia does not wish former Soviet bloc countries set up in by the Soviet bloc. If you mean a rigid to be a military again. But the dying days of the Soviet Union to political and security bloc, the answer it would like to play a bigger role in retain some form of ties between those is no. But Russia does want to retain the world than it did in the 1990s,” nations, or the newer EEU initiative, “the its influence in the Soviet region.” for particularly in its immediate neigh - idea is the same,” and “it is always a instance, she says, Russia is insisting borhood. “Russia is behaving no dif - political project.” that its neighbors not join any other ferently than the U.S. does in Latin Georgia, which was the last country economic or political bloc such as the America” when washington concludes to join the CIS, did so under pressure, EU Eastern Partnership. Russia argues

www.cqresearcher.com Feb. 7, 2014 127 RESURGENT RUSSIA

tiple trade and investment deals with Europe, China Are Key Russian Trading Partners Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Turkmenistan and Despite trying to steer its neighbors away from the European Union Uzbekistan, including roads, railways, pipelines, power plants a nd refineries. trading alliance and into its Eurasian Economic Union, Russia Such deals are “completely changing the remains heavily dependent on trade with Europe. Germany is Russia’s game in the region,” Petersen said. 24 second-largest supplier of imports (behind China), which totaled By contrast, Russian investment in $314 billion in 2012. Machinery and transportation equipment, Central Asia is “almost nothing,” Petersen chemicals and agricultural commodities top its list of imports. The said. Leaders in Central Asia tend to pre - , Germany and Italy are among the top four biggest fer deals with China, he said, because buyers of Russian commodities, with natural gas and other fuel, China is more respectful of their sover - metals and chemicals comprising the biggest shares of Russia’s eignty than Russia. The five Central Asian $525 billion in exports in 2012. republics — Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekkistan Russia’s Top Trade Partners in 2012 (the so-called ’Stans) — were fully inte - grated into the Soviet Union until its (Percentage share of $314 billion total) (Percentage share of $525 billion total) dissolution in 1991. China 16.5 % Nether land s 14.6 % German y 12 .2 China 6.8 Is Russia helping to bring peace Ukrain e ts 5. 7 Germ an y s 6. 8 to the Middle East? Japan r 5. 0 Italy rt 6. 2 Russia unquestionably is taking a United S ta te s o 4. 9 Turkey o 5 .2 more active role in the major middle p p Eastern conflict zones — Afghanistan, France 4 .4 Ukrain e x 5. 2 Italy m 4. 3 Belaru s 4. 7 Egypt, Iran and Syria. But experts dis - I E agree on whether moscow is trying to South Ko re a 3. 5 Poland 3 .8 bring peace to the region. Kazakh st an 2 .7 Japan 3. 0 The Russian Embassy’s Drobinin in - Poland 2.4 Kazakhstan 2.9 sists that it is. Russia has been “very U.K. 2.9 cooperative” with the United States on Syria and Iran, he says. “we have played Source: Federal State Statistics Service of the Russian Federation an important role in creating the con - that being part of both trading blocs the Soviet Union and Central and East - ditions to settle the issues in both simultaneously is incompatible because ern European nations. The new EEU cases.” Russia is motivated by “our op - of how trade agreements work, such will be “very protectionist” with high position to the rise of violent extrem - as having a common customs code. tariffs and nontariff barriers against the ism,” he adds, and while “we do not Armen Sahakyan, founder and pres - rest of the world, he predicts. “But in take sides” in the three-year Syrian civil ident of the Eurasian Research Analy - the next stage Russia will go for a po - war, moscow believes the Assad regime sis Institute, a new Armenia-based think litical union just like the USSR,” he says. “is a legitimate government.” tank, cites Russia’s neighbor Belarus as If Russia really does intend to recre - Russia’s pivotal role in brokering the evidence that Russia is not trying to ate the Soviet Union, the growing eco - September 2013 deal that persuaded create a new political union. Belarus nomic might of China could derail its Assad to give up his chemical weapons for years has been pushing the idea of plans. “when the Russians look east - shows that “we have achieved some - a reconfigured Soviet Union, but Putin ward they are fighting a losing battle thing,” he argues. And Russia, along has shown little interest in the concept, if t hey are fighting at all,” said the late with the United States, is the key me - he says. “Russia wants something more Alexandros Petersen, an adviser at the diator in the “Geneva II” peace con - similar to the EU,” he says. woodrow wilson International Center ference that began in Switzerland that But Jacek Saryusz-wolski, a Polish for Scholars in washington. Peterson aims to end the brutal civil war in Syria, member of the European Parliament, edited a web forum on China’s pres - which has killed more than 100,000 believes Russia is trying to create a ence in Central Asia until he was killed people and created millions of refugees. “closed economic union” similar to the in the Jan. 17, 2014, Taliban bombing But Saryusz-wolski, of the European Comecon, the Soviet trading bloc that of a Lebanese restaurant in Kabul, Parliament, says the chemical weapons existed during the Cold war between Afghanistan. 23 China is concluding mul - deal that Russia cobbled together is “a

128 CQ Researcher

trap” that gives “a free hand to Assad to governments in Central Asia to sup - Should the United States take a continue in power.” He rejects the idea press radical Islam — for instance by tougher stance with Russia? that Russia wants peace in the middle clamping down on groups such as the views are sharply divided on how East. moscow’s true goal is to “keep things Islamic movement of Uzbekistan. the United States should respond to a boiling” so oil and gas prices remain high, “Yes, Russia wants peace and stabil - Russia that is increasingly flexing its mus - which suits Russia, being that it is such ity in the middle East. It does not want cles on the global stage, in particular in a big energy supplier, he argues. the blowback from the Sunni uprisings Eastern Europe and the middle East. Armenian scholar Sahakyan suggests that stemmed from the Arab Spring,” According to Sharyl Cross, a Russian a different motivation behind Russia’s says Brookings’ Hill. moscow would like foreign policy scholar and director of support for Assad. “Russia is still a naval “strong, secular, authoritarian leaders” the Kozmetsky Center at St. Edward’s power and would like a base in the who serve as a “nice lid to put on” so - University in Austin, Texas, “we should mediterranean,” he says. Syria’s western cial tensions and conflicts in the region. scale down our expectations” of the re - coastline is on the mediterranean, and “They see democracy as messy and lationship. It is wrong to “look at every - Russia has maintained a naval facility in being at the root of all the problems thing as a new chapter in the Cold war,” the port city of Tartus since the early there [in the middle East] today,” she she said, because it remains unclear what 1970s. while Russia’s role in the middle adds. That explains why Russia has direction Russia is actually taking. 28 East had been decreasing until recently, welcomed the overthrow of Egypt’s She advocated a pragmatic approach he adds, Russia now wants to stem its dem ocratically elected muslim Brother - in which the two powers collaborate waning influence in the region. hood government in a coup last July closely in the big regional hotspots such Georgian Ambassador Gegeshidze and has been concluding new arms as the middle East. Cooperation on de - agrees with Sahakyan that Russia’s pri - deals with the Egyptian military junta fense policy is even possible, she main - mary interest in the middle East is nei - that deposed mohamed morsi, the Is - tained. for instance, the west “should ther peace nor stability but “access to lamist leader. take more seriously” former President the warmer seas,” namely the mediter - According to feinstein of the Ger - Dmitry medvedev’s proposal for NATO ranean Sea and Indian Ocean, which man marshall fund, Russia’s role and Russia to jointly conclude a pan- he notes has been Russia’s desire since across the region has been “mixed.” European Security Treaty, she said. first tsarist times (1547-1917). Sometimes, he says, Russia has been floated in 2008, the proposal has gained Putin has sent mixed signals in his “a very clear impediment to address - little traction in the United States. dealings with arch enemies Iran and ing regional concerns.” In Syria, moscow U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry Israel. Despite historically having been has gone “from being very obstruction - also calls for pragmatism. “Russia and more aligned with Iran, Putin for most ist to being pragmatic.” the U.S. are in full agreement on a num - of 2013 tried to improve relations with Despite the chemical weapons deal, ber of points” in the Syrian peace talks, Israel, promising to support its pro - for which Russia was widely praised he said, specifically that “there isn’t a fessed right to retain nuclear weapons by the west, during most of 2011-13, military solution.” Kerry and Russian for - to deter any potential attack from Iran. Russia had been strongly criticized for eign minister Sergey Lavrov agreed that But in September he seemed to reverse blocking U.N. Security Council sanc - al Qaeda-linked rebel groups in Syria course, calling on Israel to dismantle its tions against Assad. 27 meanwhile, Rus - had no place at the “Geneva II” peace nuclear arsenal. The Israeli news mag - sia has been “cooperative” in talks, which restarted in January . 29 azine Jerusalem Report suggested that Afghanistan, feinstein says, by pro - Armenian scholar Sahakyan says it Putin’s U-turn was him pandering to viding a corridor for NATO to move does not make a lot of sense for the “Russia’s allies in the Shi’ite axis [to] troops and supplies into the war-torn United States to get tougher with Russia. convince them to remain loyal.” 25 country. And in Iran, moscow “has Imposing economic sanctions “would many experts say Russia’s opposition been pragmatic so far,” he says, by make little difference because there is to Islamist militancy in the middle East supporting a deal brokered by the EU so little U.S.-Russian trade,” he says. On is sincere and stems from the instabil - in November that will ease interna - the other hand, he says, Russia can ity generated in Russia by terrorist at - tional sanctions on Iran in return for help the United States fight Islamist ex - tacks by militants from the Caucasus Iran suspending uranium enrichment tremists in the middle East. region. Separatist wars in Chechnya in in its nuclear program. In Europe, however, Russia has op - the 1990s caused the death, injury or Russia’s overall strategy, feinstein posed NATO plans — in the works displacement of 150,000 people, in - says, is that “it wants allies to the ex - since 2009 — to install missile inter - cluding 8,000 Russians. 26 Russia has tent that it can have them” to maintain ceptors and radar equipment across been very willing to help neighboring influence globally. Europe in such places as Poland and

www.cqresearcher.com Feb. 7, 2014 129 RESURGENT RUSSIA

Romania, which were once part of the sia is to get closer to the EU, because nally a viking settlement, Kiev was sit - pro-Soviet bloc. Sahakyan says NATO the EU does a huge amount of trade uated on a trade route from Scandinavia should realize that “there will be a with Russia.” The U.S. is negotiating a to Byzantium, now Istanbul. 36 backlash” if it ignores Russia’s opposition free-trade agreement with the EU, which In 988 Prince vladimir, the ruler of to the NATO plan. Russia responded is its biggest trade partner . 33 Kiev, adopted the Byzantine form of already, placing missiles in Kaliningrad, Hill says the EU and United States Christianity, planting the seed for Or - a small Russian region wedged be - can and should together take a tougher thodox Christianity to become the dom - tween NATO member states Lithuania stance against Russia for bullying its neigh - inant religion among Russians. Kiev de - and Poland. 30 “I don’t think taking a bors into joining the EEU. And the Unit - veloped into a major center of Christian tougher line with Russia will achieve ed States does have at least one sanc - learning in the 1000s and early 1100s. much,” Sahakyan says. tion at its disposal, she says, namely visa meanwhile, two other Russian city states, But Saryusz-wolski, the Polish mem - bans. There has been a massive increase Novgorod and moscow, began to de - ber of the European Parliament, strong - in the number of special “government velop as economic centers. ly disapproves of America’s current prag - official” passports issued by the Russian During the mongol invasions of matic approach toward Russia, accusing government in recent years, she says. Russian territories in the early 1200s, Obama of moving “too much into the moscow is very keen for Russians to at - the army of Batu Khan, the grandson realm of in dealing with Rus - tain visa-free travel wherever possible, of Genghis Khan, plundered Kiev. The sia and away from a values-based poli - so the west does have some leverage quickly established dominion cy.” Referring to Obama’s so-called strate - in that regard, she says. over the Russians and were referred gic pivot to Asia, he says, it would be The United States could also object to as The Golden Horde. better if the United States “stopped with - to what Hill calls Russia’s misuse of During the 1300s moscow eclipsed drawing from Europe.” However, he con - world Trade Organization (wTO) food Kiev as the dominant Russian princi - cedes that the prevailing view in wash - safety rules to punish its neighbors by pality, and in 1478 moscow’s ruler, Prince ington “that Europe should count on itself banning their products from Russian mar - Ivan III, conquered Novgorod. moscow more . . . is in a way right, but it makes kets. for instance, shortly after moscow grew increasingly powerful in the 1500s. Europe feel less comfortable.” 31 banned moldovan wine and spirits, and Defended by semi-autonomous sol - Recent Russian military maneuvers just days before the EU summit in vil - diers called Cossacks, moscow intro - in Europe worry Urmas Reinsalu, Es - nius, Russia threatened to ban Polish duced an efficient tax collection sys - tonia’s minister of defense, who noted fruit and vegetables, again on food safe - tem and instituted serfdom, a system that Russia has doubled its strategic ty grounds. Poland is one of the lead - of feudal dependency that forbade peas - weapons in Europe during the past four ing EU members supporting the free- ants from moving away from their years. He urged the United States to trade deals the EU has negotiated with lord’s estate. In return for protection, hold onto the nuclear weapons it still Georgia, moldova, and Ukraine . 34 some land to sustain themselves and keeps in , Italy, the Netherlands Hill categorically rejects as “a com - some autonomy over their daily affairs, and Turkey as a deterrent to Russia. 32 plete sham” Russian officials’ claims peasants were obliged to perform hard Georgian Ambassador Gegeshidze that these bans are justified on public- labor and pay taxes and were at times also is in the get-tough-with-Russia camp. health grounds. food safety standards subject to military service. “In Georgia, we have been watching are quite poor in Russia, she argues, Ivan Iv, who reigned from 1533 to Russia for centuries, and our experi - citing the numerous severe bouts of 1584 and was known as Ivan the Ter - ence prompts us to think that Russia food poisoning she suffered during the rible, became the undisputed leader only listens to tougher language,” he years she lived there. of Russia through his strong, harsh says. “Russia can never be a genuine leadership and adopted the title of tsar strategic partner of the U.S. because, for (from the Roman word caesar). 37 that, you need to share values,” where - Paranoid about plots against him, he as Russia is growing increasingly au - BACKGROUND was unusually cruel in suppressing per - thoritarian. ceived dissent, according to one his - However, “the U.S. does not have a torian, sending soldiers out on “black lot of carrots and sticks to use” with Russia’s Rise horses, each carrying a dog’s head and Russia because its relations are pri - a broom . . . to sniff out treachery marily security-based, rather than trade- he first Russian state, based in Kiev, and sweep it away. Supposed traitors based, says Brookings’ Hill. “The only T the capital of modern Ukraine, were tortured or murdered.” 38 35 way for the U.S. to get tough with Rus - emerged in the ninth century. Origi - Continued on p. 132

130 CQ Researcher Chronology

1945 2004 988-1917 Russia USSR emerges as a victor in world European Union (EU) and NATO emerges as the world’s largest war II, resulting in an expansion expand to Russia’s western border, country, ruled by powerful tsars. of its territory and influence in and former communist bloc na - Eastern Europe. The expansion tions join the pro-western eco - 988 marks the onset of the Cold war, nomic and military alliance. Prince vladimir, ruler of the Russian a rivalry for global dominance be - city state of Kiev, converts to Byzan - tween the United States and USSR. 2008 tine (Orthodox) Christianity. His con - Russian opposition to Georgia’s bid version leads to Orthodox Christianity 1955 to join NATO triggers a war that becoming Russia’s dominant religion. Eight communist countries of Cen - ends with Russia tightening control tral and Eastern Europe, including over Georgia’s secessionist republics, 1547 the USSR, sign the warsaw Pact Abkhazia and South Ossetia. The ruler of moscow, Ivan Iv, military alliance, bolstering Soviet known as Ivan the Terrible, is sway over the region. 2010 crowned tsar, marking the culmi - Russia signs a new nuclear weapons nation of moscow’s emergence as 1985 reduction treaty, START, with the the dominant Russian power. New Soviet leader mikhail Gorbachev United States. initiates a policy of greater openness 1703 called glasnost that encourages the 2012 Tsar Peter the Great establishes a warsaw Pact nations to realign them - Russia joins the world Trade Organiza - new capital, St. Petersburg, on the selves westward geo-politically. tion. . . . Putin easily wins re-election Baltic Sea. as president amid accusations from 1991 international observers that the re - 1917 USSR is dissolved after the 1989 fall sult was pre-determined. The last tsar, Nicholas II, is deposed of the Berlin wall and two years of and later murdered as the commu - protests in former Soviet republics. 2013 nist Bolshevik party seizes power. fifteen sovereign republics emerge Russia’s relations with the EU de - from the former Soviet Union. teriorate over EU plans to con - • clude free trade and association • pacts with several former Soviet republics, including Ukraine. . . . 1918-1991 Armenia announces it will join a Russian-dominated Soviet 1992-2014 After Russian-sponsored customs union Union industrializes and be - an initial period of economic instead of signing a trade pact comes one of the world’s two and political turmoil, Russia with the EU (September). . . . To , along with the stabilizes economically and be - avoid a U.S.-french crackdown on United States. comes more assertive on the Syria, Russia brokers a deal where - global stage. by Syria will give up its chemical 1922 weapons arsenal. . . . Ukraine Union of Soviet Socialist Republics 1992 ditches its planned EU deal amid (USSR) is formed as a multi-ethnic, Russian lawmakers privatize state- western accusations of Russian in - atheistic, communist state in which owned-enterprises, resulting in the timidation (November). Russia is the largest and most country’s rapid transformation from powerful republic. communism to capitalism. 2014 Russia hosts the winter Olympics in 1928 1999 Black Sea resort town of Sochi, cast - Soviet leader Josef Stalin launches vladimir Putin, a senior adviser to ing a spotlight on the country’s the first of several five-year plans, President Boris Yeltin, is appointed human rights record (february), which transform the USSR from a prime minister of Russia, marking even as Islamist terrorist attacks in mainly agricultural to a predomi - the beginning of his ascent to the weeks preceding the games feed nantly industrial country. power. concerns about security at event.

www.cqresearcher.com Feb. 7, 2014 131 RESURGENT RUSSIA

Russia Plays Leading Role in Separatist Conflicts Moscow sees itself as a protector, but others view it differently.

hen the word “separatist” is mentioned in relation to while media reports often refer to Abkhazia and South Russia, it usually conjures up the conflict with Chech - Ossetia in one breath, Gegeshidze says they are different. most w nya, the predominantly muslim republic in Russia’s South speak Georgian and are culturally close to mountainous Caucasus region that tried unsuccessfully to se - Georgians, but South Ossetia is too weak economically to be cede in the 1990s. a self-sustaining country, he says. By contrast, the But Russia is a pivotal player in four other so-called “frozen” “have more choices” about whether or not to go it alone, he separatist conflicts — in Abkhazia and South Ossetia in Georgia, says, because their land is more fertile, they have access to Nagorno-Karabakh in Azerbaijan and Transnistria in moldova — the sea and Russian is the dominant language. Still, Gegeshidze which remain unresolved after erupting when the Soviet Union says, ethnic Abkhaz control the government but are outnum - collapsed in 1991. 1 In each case, Russia provides some sup - bered by ethnic and Georgians in Abkhazia. So the port to the separatists — military, diplomatic, economic or a Abkhaz are glad to have Russia’s protection. combination — a thorn in the side of the countries from which Svante Cornell, director of the Central Asia-Caucasus Insti - the regions have seceded. tute at Johns Hopkins University in washington, has argued Russia was devastated to lose Azerbaijan, Georgia, moldova that Russia uses the frozen conflicts to keep the countries with - and 11 other republics when the Soviet Union was dissolved. in its . 3 for instance, Cornell pointed out Russia and Georgia fought a brief war in 2008, and in retalia - that Russia has already warned that if moldova continues to tion Russia recognized Abkhazia and South Ossetia as inde - forge closer ties with the European Union against Russia’s wish - pendent countries in their secessionist dispute with Georgia. es, Russia would support separatists in moldova’s Transnistria Russia also maintains about 1,000 troops in Transnistria, even region. though Russia does not share a border with Transnistria as it Russia can do the same with Nagorno-Karabakh, which is does with Abkhazia and South Ossetia. 2 officially part of Azerbaijan but populated by ethnic Armenians Georgia’s U.S. ambassador, Archil Gegeshidze, says “two who would welcome Russia’s protection, Cornell said. Regional competing narratives” explain Russia’s role in the conflicts. experts believe concern about the future of Nagorno-Karabakh In the pro-Russian view, people in the breakaway republics was a major factor in Armenia’s sudden decision last Septem - align themselves with Russia because of their common his - ber to abandon a trade agreement negotiated with the EU and tories, and Russia supports them as a “moral obligation,” instead join the Russian-backed Eurasian Economic Union (EEU). Gegeshidze says. Russia’s opponents, he adds, say it “al - Armen Sahakyan, founder and executive director of the ways uses these conflicts as a lever over the former Sovi - washington office of the Eurasian Research Analysis Institute, et republics to prevent them from jumping out of the Russ - a new Armenian-based think tank, says Russia’s goal in the ian orbit.” frozen conflicts is “to preserve the status quo” because doing

Continued from p. 130 with and Prussia to dismem - 1800s Russia extended its territory and A series of weak leaders succeeded ber Poland in the late 1700s, leading influence in Eastern Europe, the Cauca - Ivan, with the next similarly strong tsar Russia to annex parts of modern-day sus and the Balkans through various emerging in the late 1600s. Peter I, who Belarus, Lithuania, Poland and Ukraine. wars against the Ottoman Empire, which became known as Peter the Great She also instituted a new legal code was slowly disintegrating. Around the (1682-1725), captured the Baltic that greatly improved the effectiveness same time, it gained control of the main - provinces from Sweden in 1709 at the of the Russian government and intro - ly ethnically Turkic peoples of Central Battle of Poltava. Peter established the duced a new system for consulting Asia, wrenching the local mini-kingdoms most extensive diplomatic relations with her subjects over proposed laws, in called khanates from the British and Per - European governments Russia had ever which an expanded array of social sians, a tussle referred to by historians had until that point. He imported the groups was involved in the process. as “The Great Game.” 39 In the 1860s best military technologies from Eu - In 1807 a pact with french Emper - Russia expelled between 1 and 2 mil - rope, established a new capital city, or Napoleon I gave Russia control of lion Circassian people from their native St. Petersburg, on the Baltic, and creat - . By this time Russia had grown western Caucasus. 40 ed Russia’s first permanent army. into the world’s largest country, stretch - The completion of the Trans-Siberian Catherine II (1762-1796) — known ing from the Baltic to the Black Sea and Railway in 1903 boosted Russia’s ex - as Catherine the Great — conspired all the way to the Pacific Ocean. In the panding industrial sector, which was

132 CQ Researcher Separatist Conflicts Fester in Russia’s Southwest Russia provides some support for separatist movements in three former Soviet republics on so allows it to retain influence. As for Georgia, Sahakyan sug - gests moscow might give Abkhazia and South Ossetia back to its southwestern border near Sochi, site of this Georgia if it agreed to join the EEU. And it could do the same month’s Winter Olympic Games. The four so-called with Transnistria, he says. “frozen” separatist conflicts are in Georgia, where The key other player is the 28-member European Union. In Abkhazia and South Ossetia want to secede; November, Georgia and moldova defied Russia’s warnings by Azerbaijan, where separatists are active in initialing comprehensive free-trade and association agreements with the EU. But it is unclear how these accords will be applied Nagorno-Karabakh; and Moldova, where the in the frozen conflicts. breakaway region of Transnistria is located. Gunnar wiegand, a senior EU diplomat, said the visa-free regime the EU is offering moldova would apply to moldovans living in Transnistria. And Transnistrians also would benefit from lower import tariffs under the EU trade pact, since most of E RUSSIA STO moldova’s heavy industry is in Transnistria. NIA As for the broader question of who will govern the four LA TV regions in the long term, the stalemate has become so en - L IA ITH Chechnya UA trenched that the answer remains unclear. with the EU adopt - NIA ing its trade incentives “carrot” approach, in contrast to moscow’s BELARUS South “stick” approach, Russia’s attraction for the region’s residents re - Ossetia mains its “,” while the EU’s attraction remains its UKRAINE Nagorno- “,” Cornell says. Transnistria MOLDOVA Karabakh — Brian Beary

Aral 1 Sochi for a full account of these conflicts, see Brian Beary, Separatist Movements (2011). Sea 2 David m. Herszenhorn, “Russia Putting a Strong Arm On Neighbors,” The Abkhazia New York Times , Oct. 22, 2013, www.nytimes.com/2013/10/23/world/europe/ Black Sea GEORGIA Caspian russia-putting-a-strong-arm-on-neighbors.html?_r=0. Sea 3 Cornell spoke at an event titled, “Pushback to Putin’s Eurasian Dream? ARMENIA AZERBAIJAN The Looming facedown between China, the EU and Russia,” at the School TURKEY of Advanced International Studies, Johns Hopkins University, washington D.C. , IRAN Dec. 4, 2013. Source: Brian Beary, various open sources online.

producing a growing urban working massive casualties, leading to two rev - class, from which developed socialist- olutions in 1917 in which Nicholas The Soviet Era oriented political parties, including the was deposed and later murdered and Bolsheviks and mensheviks. A humili - Bolshevik leader vladimir Lenin came enin, who died in 1924, was suc - ating defeat for Russia in a war with to power. He established a “dictator - L ceeded by Josef Stalin, a high- newly emergent Japan in 1904-05 ship of the proletariat,” as advocated ranking Georgian-born official who in stymied Russia’s ambition of gaining in - by the founders of marxist political 1922 had become general secretary of fluence over Korea, Chinese manchuria ideologies, including Karl marx him - the Communist Party. Stalin boosted in - and the far East. self, laying the foundation for the dustrial production through a series of That loss also helped to trigger a multi-ethnic Soviet Union. many non- five-year plans, which began in 1928, revolution that forced Tsar Nicholas II Russian peoples who lived in the de - and forced the collectivization of farms. (1894-1917) to set up a parliament, funct Russian Empire tried to estab - when middle-class farmers from called the Duma. During world war I lish independent republics, but Lenin Ukraine and Kazakhstan resisted, Stalin (1914-1918) Russia fought on the side suppressed such moves. In 1922, they brutally repressed them, with millions of france and the United Kingdom became part of the new, Russian- murdered or deported to labor camps against the German-Austro-Hungarian- dominated Union of the Soviet So - in Siberia. Stalin also devised an elabo - Turkish alliance. The Russians suffered cialist Republics (USSR). rate system of keeping files on Commu -

www.cqresearcher.com Feb. 7, 2014 133 RESURGENT RUSSIA

nist Party members, which he used to notably sending troops to quell an Russia also had to deal with an in - devastating effect in the late 1930s, anti-communist uprising in Hungary ternal war in the early 1990s, when when he conducted wide-scale purges, in 1956. Chechnya, a southern republic in the eliminating anyone he viewed as a po - After the Soviet politburo peacefully mountainous Caucasus region, tried to tential threat. ousted Khrushchev in 1964, the new secede. Russian troops eventually sup - During world war II (1939-45), the leader, Leonid Brezhnev, deployed troops pressed the uprising, but violence in Soviets joined france, the United King - to Czechoslovakia in 1968 to suppress the region persists. dom and United States in defeating the the so-called Prague Spring, a movement Boris Yeltsin, Russia’s president from German-Japanese alliance. Some 27 mil - to introduce democracy and liberalize 1991-1999, struggled to keep order at lion Soviet soldiers and civilians were personal freedom. High oil prices in the home while trying to build good rela - killed — or 14 percent of the popu - 1970s enabled Russia to maintain its sta - tions with the rest of the world. In the lation. 41 The war enabled Stalin to re - tus as a military superpower, but its mid-1990s Russia, Ukraine and the Unit - gain territories ceded to Germany in economy stagnated and its public fi - ed States agreed to begin eliminating their world war I, notably the three Baltic nances deteriorated accordingly. nuclear arsenals, resulting in Ukraine be - nations of Estonia, Latvia and Lithua - A new chapter began when mikhail coming a nuclear-weapons-free country. nia, and parts of modern-day Belarus. Gorbachev became the Soviet leader Yeltsin appointed Putin as his prime In addition, Stalin pushed Central and in 1985. He dramatically improved re - minister in 1999, and Putin took over Eastern European nations, including East lations with the west, signing major the presidency from Yeltsin in 2000. Germany, into the Comecon economic disarmament treaties with President Higher oil prices in subsequent years union, as well as a military alliance, Ronald Reagan. Gorbachev adopted a gave Putin sufficient revenues to ce - the 1955 warsaw Pact. In 1946 Britain’s so-called glasnost policy to allow greater ment his grip on power. In addition, former wartime prime minister, win - freedom of speech, a policy that re - he placed control of the giant energy ston Churchill, famously described the verberated throughout the warsaw Pact company Gazprom back in govern - alliance as creating an “Iron Curtain” nations. East European countries began ment hands, further strengthening his between Europe and the region. to throw off Soviet domination, be - political power. 43 In foreign policy, The period between 1945 and the ginning with Poland, which held part - Putin was far less friendly than Yeltsin fall of the Berlin wall in 1989 became ly free and fair elections in June 1989. toward the west. He opposed the known as the Cold war, in reference The toppling of the Berlin wall in U.S.-led Iraq war in 2003, the NATO- to the intense geopolitical rivalry that ex - November 1989 marked the end of the sponsored secession of Kosovo from isted between the Soviet Union and the Cold war as , Czechoslovakia, Serbia in 2008 and the U.S. plan to United States, the world’s two super - East Germany, Hungary and Romania install a missile defense system in East - powers. Among the tensest episodes quickly joined Poland in abandoning ern Europe in the mid-2000s. were the 1948-49 Berlin Airlift, in which communism and becoming free-market Putin also resented NATO’s expan - the U.S. military flew supplies into democracies. Lithuania’s declaration of sion to his doorstep in 2004, when west Berlin to foil a Soviet blockade; independence from the Soviet Union Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania joined the the 1962 Cuban missile Crisis in which in march 1990 marked the beginning western military alliance. In addition, the United States threatened war if the of the end of the USSR, which was of - he viewed with unease the European Soviets did not remove missiles they ficially dissolved on New Year’s Eve in Union’s expansion in 2004 and 2007, had placed in Cuba; and the Soviet 1991, and all 15 Soviet republics emerged when it accepted as members eight invasion of Afghanistan in 1979, which as independent countries. former communist nations from Cen - sparked a U.S. boycott of the 1980 tral and Eastern Europe. 44 The new moscow Olympic Games. 42 EU member states were staunchly pro- when Stalin died in 1953, he was Chaos and Resurgence American and eagerly contributed succeeded by Nikita Khrushchev, who troops to the U.S.-led Iraq war. denounced Stalin’s extreme political fter the Soviet Union collapsed, Constitutionally limited to two con - repression but retained his socialist A Russia plunged into trauma and secutive terms, Putin handpicked his policies. Khrushchev made some eco - chaos. Economically, it embraced a prime minister, Dmitry medvedev, to nomic adjustments, though, such as model of unfettered capitalism that en - succeed him. medvedev was elected giving Russian families their own apart - riched a relative few but slashed the in march 2008 with 70 percent of the ments and expanding state welfare living standards of many ordinary Rus - vote. 45 with a softer style, medvedev benefits. Abroad, Khrushchev kept a sians. Price controls were relaxed and helped to warm Russia’s relations with firm grip on the Soviet satellite states, state-owned enterprises privatized. the west. A major achievement was

134 CQ Researcher conclusion of a new nuclear arms re - due both to Putin’s more confronta - especially after Russia last September duction treaty (START) in 2010. 46 tional style as well as western criticism banned moldovan wine and spirits, of - medvedev was aided by Obama’s of his human-rights record, for instance ficially due to public-health concerns. election as president in November 2008, on freedom of the press. Last fall, Ukraine became an even especially after the Obama adminis - Russian-U.S. relations became further bigger battleground between Russia tration vowed to “hit the reset button” strained last summer after NSA con - and the EU, when the EU urged Kiev and work to improve U.S.-Russian re - tractor Snowden was granted political to sign an association and trade agree - lations. The two cooperated in com - asylum in Russia after disclosing details ment. However, the EU also demand - bating militant Islam in Afghanistan, with Russia granting the NATO mis - sion there access to transport corri - dors that allowed NATO military per - sonnel and equipment to travel from bases in the Baltic through Russia. During the Arab Spring uprisings in

2011, Russia chose not to veto a U.N. n a y

Security Council move to deploy a s a n NATO military mission in Libya. That i M

mission led to the removal from power n e r of Libyan leader moammar Gadhafi in a K / the summer of 2011. meanwhile, the s e g

United States backed Russia’s bid to a m I join the wTO, giving it enhanced ac - y t t

cess to world markets for trade and e

47 G investment purposes. / P

Tensions ran high, however, when F A Georgia and Ukraine made bids to join An Armenian soldier in the self-proclaimed republic of Nagorno-Karabakh NATO, which the United States sup - guards the border with Azerbaijan near the town of Martakert. Nagorno-Karabakh ported but Russia firmly opposed. The is officially part of Azerbaijan but populated by ethnic Armenian separatists, who would welcome Russia’s protection. Concern about the future of Nagorno- situation was a contributing factor in Karabakh is seen as a major factor in Armenia’s sudden decision last September the Russia-Georgia war that erupted to abandon a trade agreement negotiated with the European Union and instead in summer 2008, which ended with join the Russian-backed Eurasian Economic Union. Russia tightening its control over Geor - gia’s two secessionist regions, Abkhazia of the NSA’s mass surveillance programs ed the release from prison of Ukrain - and South Ossetia. of U.S. and foreign citizens. ian opposition leader Yulia Tymoshenko U.S.-Russian relations soured in 2012, “It’s not our fault that he found him - for medical treatment in Germany — as the two countries could not recon - self in Russia,” says the Russian Em - something the Ukrainian government cile their competing plans to develop bassy’s Drobinin. He insists that moscow refused to do. new missile-defense systems in Europe. was legally required to examine Snow - meanwhile, on Sept. 3, Armenian As the United States began with - den’s claim for asylum and could not President Serzh Sargsyan announced drawing its troops from Afghanistan in send him back to the United States, Armenia would join the Russian-backed 2011, Russia began boosting its military since the two countries do not have EEU instead of signing trade and as - presence in Central Asia. for instance, an extradition treaty. sociation pacts it had concluded with in September 2012 moscow persuaded meanwhile, the atmosphere in East - the EU. 49 The decision came as a Tajikistan to allow Russian military ern Europe began heating up as the shock: Even Armenian diplomats in bases there to remain open until 2042 EU and Russia competed for influence washington were blindsided by the by extending its existing lease. 48 Putin, in the region. moldova has aligned it - sudden shift that occurred after con - who had been prime minister under self more closely with the EU since versations between Sargsyan and Putin. medvedev, was easily re-elected presi - 2009, when a strongly pro-western gov - The European Parliament passed a dent for six more years in may 2012. ernment was elected, replacing the rul - resolution on Sept. 12, condemning His return to the presidency quickly led ing communists. This caused tension Russia’s behavior toward its neighbors to a chilling of relations with the west, in moldova’s relations with moscow, as “unacceptable.”

www.cqresearcher.com Feb. 7, 2014 135 RESURGENT RUSSIA

dire state of their relations, the meet - leaders van Rompuy and Barroso have ing was confined to a working lunch said jointly that they “strongly disap - CURRENT between the leaders. In the post-sum - prove of Russia’s position and actions” mit press conference, President van regarding Ukraine. SITUATION Rompuy said the European integration The U.S. Senate responded similar - offers to Ukraine, Georgia or moldova ly, passing a resolution on Jan. 7 re - were “fully compatible” with Russia’s ferring to “Russian economic coercion” interests. Putin said, “we would most in Ukraine and urging U.S. and EU Tensions in Ukraine likely abolish [our] preferential mea - leaders “to continue working together sures for Ukraine if it signs the [EU] to [move] Ukraine toward a future in kraine is in a state of serious po - association agreement.” 53 the Euro-Atlantic community.” 56 U litical turmoil since President The Russian Embassy’s Drobinin insists welcoming the resolution, Deputy Yanukovych’s refusal to sign the trade “it was Ukraine’s decision taken in their Assistant Secretary of State Thomas melia and association agreements with the national interests” not to sign the EU deal said, “I believe the embers that sparked EU. Popular protests focused around and that it is “misleading” to claim that the protests in late November are still Independence Square in Kiev have Russia exerted pressure on Kiev. burning and will not be easily extin - snowballed since the vilnius summit, Drobinin concedes that the EU- guished.” 57 Nuland, his State Depart - in a movement dubbed Euro-maidan Ukraine deal would, however, have hurt ment colleague, added, “There is, also, in Ukrainian, or “Euro-Square.” Clashes Russia’s economy by causing EU goods a good deal of disinformation in Russia between the police and protesters to flood duty-free into the Russian mar - about the effect that the EU’s Eastern have turned increasingly violent — and ket through Ukraine, after being stamped Partnership could have on its economy even militant — with widespread ar - with a “made in Ukraine” label. and arrangements with neighbors.” 58 rests and several deaths and beatings But Judy Dempsey, a scholar at the meanwhile, Georgia and moldova, reported. Carnegie Endowment for Internation - which at the vilnius summit initialed fears are mounting that the country al Peace, said “Putin is desperate to their EU trade deals — a preliminary may be on the brink of civil war. On hold on to [Ukraine], knowing full well step before signing the accords — seem Jan. 28, the prime minister and cabinet that if Ukraine goes over to the EU, more determined than ever to conclude resigned, and restrictions on political Russia’s own bulwarks against the EU’s them despite or perhaps because of the protest imposed weeks earlier were re - creeping democratic influence will harsh warnings from moscow. Armenian scinded. 50 Obama, in his State of the crumble.” 54 scholar Sahakyan says Georgia and Union speech on Jan. 28, said, “In The U.S. administration is intensify - moldova may have less to fear from Ukraine, we stand for the principle that ing diplomatic efforts to persuade the Russian economic retaliation than Ukraine all people have the right to express East European countries to align them - because they are less economically de - themselves freely and peacefully, and selves with the EU. Secretary of State pendent on Russia. have a say in their country’s future.” 51 Kerry, for instance, visited moldova in Nevertheless, he says, heavy-handed - By contrast, media coverage in Rus - December, and U.S. Assistant Secretary ness from Russia is “not smart” be - sia of the protests characterizes the of State for European and Eurasian Af - cause it hurts Russia’s relations with demonstrators as violent rioters. voice fairs victoria Nuland has made numer - the west. Armenia’s government, he of Russia, the government-owned broad - ous trips to the region in recent weeks. points out, could still turn back to the caster, alleges that the protests are being “The United States stands with you EU if Russia does not provide it with spearheaded by “well-organized radical in search of . . . the European future the security guarantees it wants. groups — mainly, football ultras, pro - that you have chosen and you de - fessional raiders and militants who have serve,” Nuland said, addressing the undergone special training.” 52 media in Kiev on Dec. 11 after meet - Hot Spots and Winter The backlash in Ukraine has soured ing with Yanukovych. “It is still pos - Games Russia’s relations with the rest of Eu - sible to save Ukraine’s European fu - rope. An EU-Russia summit did go ahead ture,” and “the world is watching.” 55 s NATO continues to wind down as planned in Brussels on Jan. 28 and The vilnius summit debacle, where A its presence in Afghanistan, Russia was attended by President Putin, EU Yanukovych decided at the last minute is moving in to fill the security vacuum. Commission President José manuel Bar - he would not sign the trade deal with Its new extended lease on a military roso and EU Council President Her - the EU, has made EU leaders bolder base in Tajikistan means that 7,000 man van Rompuy. However, given the and blunter about their feelings. EU Continued on p. 138

136 CQ Researcher At Issue:

Shoyes uld the United States take a tougher stance with Russia?

ARIEL COHEN ARMEN SAHAKYAN SENIOR RESEARCH FELLOW IN RUSSIAN EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR , W ASHINGTON , D.C. AND EURASIAN STUDIES , H ERITAGE BRANCH , E URASIAN RESEARCH ANALYSIS FOUNDATION INSTITUTE

WRITTEN FOR CQ RESEARCHER , FEBRUARY 2014 WRITTEN FOR CQ RESEARCHER , FEBRUARY 2014

ith the U.S. Olympic team now in Sochi and wash - hen discussing the question of taking a tougher ington engaged in intensive talks with moscow on stance with Russia one must bear in mind two im - w the Syrian cease-fire and Iran’s nuclear program, this w portant questions. first, what is the trigger to adopt is good time to examine the U.S.-Russia relationship. such a policy? And second, will the policy lead to any favorable The Obama administration’s ballyhooed Russian “reset” was outcomes for the United States? an abysmal failure. There is no shared threat assessment and Recently, a widely cited reason has been Russia’s ambition no mutual understanding between the United States and Rus - to form the Eurasian Economic Union (EEU) by Jan. 1, 2015. sia on how to deal with the changing geopolitical environ - It is expected to be an economic union of five former Soviet ment. Instead, Russia’s anti-U.S. foreign policy tilt prevents states that will break down internal trade barriers, adopt a diplomatic cooperation. Because Russia still views America as common tariff on foreign goods and other such free-trade a “principal adversary” — a Cold war legacy — it wants to measures. The United States has long been a proponent of constrain America’s diplomatic and military maneuverability. free trade and globalization, yet it is alarmed with the idea of flush with oil cash, Putin has chosen to build up Russia’s the EEU. The U.S. motive thus becomes questionable and the military power, launching a $700 billion rearmament program, adoption of a harsher policy toward the EEU would likely including mayssive nuclear meissile moderns ization. meanwhile, he hurt the U.S. innternational image o as the torchbearer on free has nearly eliminated U.S. missile defenses in Europe. He also trade. It would be wiser to further develop friendly relations has successfully confronted the Bush and Obama administrations with the EEU states and ensure their continued integration over Iran, effectively saved Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and into the world economy. supported a “deal” over the future of Iran’s atomic program that As for the second question — whether getting tough on brings Tehran to the threshold of nuclear statehood. Russia will produce a favorable outcome — I see it as counter - moscow wants to see U.S. power diminished in Eurasia, the productive for the United States, which needs a strong Russia middle East and Europe. Putin’s vision includes domination over in the region and should be on favorable terms with it, con - the former Soviet bloc as an independent pole in a “multi-polar sidering the looming pullout of U.S. and coalition forces from world.” Russia’s pressures on Ukraine and Georgia continue un - Afghanistan. relentingly, aimed at bringing Kiev and Tbilisi into moscow’s Russia also has key roles to play regarding the ongoing fold, most likely through the Eurasian Economic Union, a post- instability in Syria and the fight against terrorism. As a perma - Soviet satellite state system not unlike the warsaw Pact. nent Security Council member, Russia also is instrumental in President Obama should ask the National Security Council to matters affecting the entire world. Should U.S.-Russia relations conduct a bottom-up review of Russia policy. He also should deteriorate, it would be much harder to reach a consensus strengthen ties with former Soviet bloc countries concerned about on a wide range of issues, further destabilizing the balance their independence, such as Azerbaijan, Georgia, Kazakhstan, of power. Turkmenistan, Ukraine and Uzbekistan, and provide economic Even if we were to disregard all of those considerations, it advice and political-military cooperation if requested. That is doubtful that a tougher policy would be effective, since the would be particularly timely, since the United States plans to United States does not have many “buttons” that it can push withdraw troops from Afghanistan later this year. to pressure Russia. Russia and the United States do not have Russia’s intransigent foreign policy will require the adminis - the deepest economic ties. The same underdeveloped relations tration to provide global leadership and consistent, robust exist on many other fronts, and it is questionable whether pushback when U.S. interests are at stake. Disagreements over economic or other types of pressure would yield any favorable security concerns and hinder U.S.-Russian coopera - outcomes. tion in counterterrorism, nonproliferation, global security and A cost-benefit analysis would show that the United States business. moscow’s anti-U.S. approach means tough times for will be better off by further deepening its ties with Russia, U.S.-Russian relations. But when engaging moscow, the United cooperating in anti-terrorism and other areas and facilitating States must guard its national security interests, not engage in the EEU’s integration with other trading blocs, such as NAfTA, a self-dno eluding, feel-good policy exercise. the EU and others.

www.cqresearcher.com Feb. 7, 2014 137 RESURGENT RUSSIA

Continued from p. 136 However, tensions between NATO and As the world spotlight turns to the Russian troops will stay on to help the Russia continue to mount on the issue southern Russian resort city of Sochi in deal with any potential militant of missile defense. Talks to develop a february for the winter Olympics, Putin Islamist threats. The Tajik government joint system, which began in 2010, have will use the occasion to showcase Rus - worries about militants crossing the become hopelessly deadlocked. Russia sia “as a modern society that he has porous borders it shares with Afghanistan wants NATO’s missile defense system to had a hand in creating,” said Kathy Lally, and Pakistan. 59 be operationally linked to Russia’s, while moscow bureau chief of The Washing - Russia also is donating $1.1 billion NATO prefers to limit such cooperation ton Post. Russia has spent $51 billion in military weapons to Kyrgyzstan and to information-sharing between the NATO on the games, more than eight times paying $4.5 million a year to lease the and Russian command-and-control cen - the amount spent for the previous win - country’s Kant airbase for use by the ters. NATO also is resisting Russia’s de - ter Olympics in vancouver, Canada. 65 Russian military. The United States, in mand for a legal guarantee that the with Sochi situated in Russia’s Cau - contrast, is closing its Kyrgyz base at NATO missile defense system would not casus region, a hotbed of muslim rad - the manas Transit Center. be used against Russia. 62 icalism, Islamist-inspired terrorists have already warned that they plan to attack the games. Putin is a natural enemy of such groups, being a firmly secular leader whom they view as anti-Islamic, especially given Russia’s brutal repression of separatists in the staunchly muslim Russian republic of Chechnya. n

u Putin is obviously determined to keep b m

i the games secure, since an attack could h S

dent the reputation he has long been i h

a cultivating as a competent, firm leader. s A

/ Lally pointed out that in the neigh - s e

g boring region of Dagestan, small terror - a m

I ist bombs explode almost daily but little

y t

t attention is paid to them. The Sochi e

G games will shed new international atten - Russian police officers are a major presence at the 2014 Winter Olympic Games tion on such attacks, she predicted. 66 in Sochi, Russia. Sochi lies in the Caucasus region, a hotbed of Muslim radicalism. Islamist-inspired terrorists have said they plan to attack the games. In efforts to burnish his image in Russian President Vladimir Putin has firmly opposed such groups in the past. the runup to the Olympics Putin in December released longtime jailed busi - “The underlying political message Russia’s new short-range ballistic nessman mikhail Khodorkovsky and is that Russia is a more durable se - missiles deployed in Kaliningrad could two anti-Putin activists from the pop curity partner than the U.S.,” accord - theoretically be used to destroy band Pussy Riot. 67 ing to Jane’s Intelligence Review , the NATO’s planned radar facility and mis - But will the games boost Putin’s stand - security magazine. 60 sile interceptor in neighboring Poland. ing? According to Sufian Zhemukhov, a In Syria and Iran, Russia is manag - The missiles have a range of about visiting scholar in Russian and East Eu - ing to maintain a good working rela - 250 miles. 63 Artis Pabriks, defense ropean studies at George washington tionship with the EU and United States, minister of Lithuania, a NATO mem - University in washington who comes as evidenced by the Nov. 23, 2013, deal ber state that borders Kaliningrad, said, from the region, if the Olympics are a on Iran’s nuclear program that the EU “we have followed these events for failure, it will have a very negative im - brokered. Carnegie Endowment for In - quite some time, and this is not a sur - pact on Putin because it will show that ternational Peace scholars Andrew weiss prise for us,” but added that “it cre - his government cannot handle mega pro - and Dmitri Trenin said the United States ates unnecessary political tension and jects. It could even hurt his re-election and Russia are in an era of “purely suspicions and reduces mutual trust prospects, Zhemukhov said. 68 transactional relations against the back - because we don’t see reason why Rus - As for potential terrorist attacks, ground of deep mutual mistrust” and sians would need such weapons here. Zhemukhov says security at Sochi “will that “this may be the ‘new normal’ in . . . I think it’s just to show who is be very good,” but “I’m not sure about U.S.-Russian relations.” 61 the boss in the region.” 64 the rest of Russia.”

138 CQ Researcher Russian Embassy’s Drobinin disputes warsaw-based Centre for Eastern Stud - such predictions. “Siberia is not some ies, “as well as increasing opposition by OUTLOOK kind of promised land,” he says. “It is the [Eastern Partnership] countries against really hard to live there,” given its the Kremlin’s conduct.” 77 harsh climate and remoteness. Continuing Tensions four former Soviet-bloc countries that are now members of the EU — Notes ussia is likely to continue trying to Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and Poland R enhance its voice in major interna - — will be leading the resistance to 1 “Rogozin warns moldova on Relations,” tional forums. with its wTO member - Russia’s attempts to extend its in - Reuters, Sept. 5, 2013, Reuters, www.themoscow ship sealed, Russia now has its sights fluence into its Soviet-era sphere. times.com/business/article/rogozin-warns-moldo set on joining the Organisation for Eco - “we were under occupation for 50 va- on-relations/485526.html . 2 nomic Co-operation and Development, years,” said vydas Gedvilas, the foreign minister Bildt was speaking at a con - ference entitled, “The European Union’s Eastern a Paris-based coalition of 34 developed speaker of the Lithuanian Parlia - Partnership: what to Expect at vilnius,” hosted nations that works to promote democ - ment. “Now we are doing everything by the Brookings Institution in washington, D.C., racy and free markets. In order to be in our power to get these countries on Nov. 21, 2013 , www.brookings.edu/events/ 72 allowed to join, Russia will need to prove closer to the EU. ” 2013/11/21-european-union-eastern-partner - to the members, which are almost all Similarly, Estonian Defense minister ship-vilnius . advanced economies, that it has a gen - Reinsalu urged NATO to keep its door 3 See Olaf Osica, “The Eastern Partnership: uinely free market and open economy, open to new members and for the Life Begins after vilnius,” Center for European one where businesses have confidence United States to retain a military pres - Analysis, Dec. 13, 2013, http://cepa.org/content/ they can come and invest in a corruption- ence in Europe. 73 The State Depart - eastern-partnership-life-begins-after-vilnius . 4 free, legally certain environment. Given ment’s Nuland has urged the EU to T.J., “why has Russia banned moldovan wine?” the well-documented governance prob - leave the welcome mat out for The Economist , Nov. 25, 2013, www.economist. com/blogs/economist-explains/2013/11/econo lems in the country, convincing them Ukraine, adding that it is important to mist-explains-18 . will be no small task. 69 keep a close eye on the 2015 presi - 5 minister Gherman was speaking at a dis - Russia also is expected to consoli - dential elections in Ukraine to ensure cussion on the EU Eastern Partnership, orga - 74 date its historical hold over the Arctic the vote is free and fair. nized by the European Institute in washing - 70 region. Norway’s defense minister, Russia’s recent arm-twisting “will ul - ton, D.C., on Sept. 18, 2013. Ine Eriksen Soreide, recently said Rus - timately lead to disaster” in its foreign 6 wiegand was speaking at an event entitled, sia’s increased military activity in the relations, predicted Stephen Blank, a se - “The EU’s Eastern Partnership in Light of Pre - Arctic was “cause for concern” and that nior fellow for Russia at the American sent Challenges,” hosted by Johns Hopkins NATO and Russia “do not see eye to foreign Policy Council, a washington University in washington, D.C., Jan. 16, 2014. 7 eye” over joint naval exercises in the think tank. Refusing “to recognize the Presentation by mikhail Kalugin, head of eco - Arctic. “Small things can spark tensions,” sovereignty and independence” of Ar - nomic section, Embassy of Russia to the United States, at discussion entitled, “Securing Northern Soreide cautioned, pointing out that Nor - menia, Georgia, Kyrgyzstan and Ukraine Europe’s Energy Independence: A finnish Per - way shared a 122-mile land border and makes the region “fundamentally un - 71 spective,” organized by the Europea n Institute, 466-mile sea border with Russia. stable” and “under constant threat of washington, D.C., Dec. 19, 2013. 75 As for Russia’s ultimate goal regarding war,” Blank argued . 8 Ibid . the Eurasian Economic Union, “we want frederick Starr, chairman of the Cen - 9 Ibid. to create a common [trading] space from tral Asia-Caucasus Institute at Johns 10 See Human Rights watch, “Attacks on Ghou - Lisbon to vladivostok,” says Kalugin, of Hopkins University in washington, ta,” Sept. 10, 2013, www.hrw.org/node/118725 /. the Russian Embassy in washington. called Putin’s policy “an absurd replay 11 Paul Lewis, “Obama welcomes Syria chem - Thus, the EU is part of Russia’s plan of Alexander III’s” eastward expansion ical weapons deal but retains strikes option,” as well, with the EU’s 28 member states of the Russian Empire in the late 1800s, The Guardian , Sept. 14, 2013, www.theguard remaining Russia’s top trading partners, which culminated in the Russian revo - ian.com/world/2013/sep/14/barack-obama-syria- chemical-weapons-deal . Kalugin stresses. lution of 1905. 76 12 for background, see Chuck mcCutcheon, Some demographers predict that “Everything is possible — both a drift “Government Surveillance,” CQ Researcher , Russia eventually will lose control of of the former Soviet [countries] toward Aug. 30, 2013, pp. 717-740. Siberia as Russians continue migrating Russia, combined with the inward col - 13 “Ratification of Russian military base deal out of the area and are replaced by lapse of its states and societies,” ac - provides Tajikistan with important security Chinese migrant workers. But the cording to Olaf Osica, director of the guarantees,” Jane’s Intelligence Weekly , Oct. 2,

www.cqresearcher.com Feb. 7, 2014 139 RESURGENT RUSSIA

2013, www.janes.com/article/27898/ratification- Strategic and International Studies in washing - 2012, pp. 277-300. of-russian-military-base-deal-provides-tajikistan- ton, D.C., at a discussion entitled “The future 32 Reinsalu made his comments at a discus - with-important-security-guarantees . of the Eurasian Economic Union,” Oct. 31, 2013. sion entitled “Ten Years in NATO; Twelve Years 14 “Russia: 2 suspects arrested in bombing,” 23 On Jan. 17, 2014, Alexandros Petersen was in Afghanistan: An Estonian Perspective on the The Associated Press, Jan. 30, 2014, www.las shot dead while dining at a popular Lebanese future of NATO,” Center for Strategic and In - vegassun.com/news/2014/jan/30/russia-2-sus restaurant in downtown Kabul, Afghanistan. ternational Studies, Jan. 6, 2014, http://csis.org/ pects-arrested-suicide-bombing /. Petersen was the victim of an anti-western event/ten-years--twelve-years- afghanistan. 15 “winter Olympics: Russia launches Sochi te rrorist attack carried out by Taliban militants 33 See Brian Beary, “U.S. Trade Policy,” CQ security clampdown,” BBC News, www.bbc.co. that killed 21 people. Researcher , Sept. 13, 2013, pp. 765-788. uk/news/world-europe-25633632 . 24 Petersen was speaking at an event enti - 34 “Russia may ban import of Polish fruits and 16 Kelly whiteside, “Obama sends message by tled “Pushback to Putin’s Eurasian Dream? vegetables,” voice of Russia, Nov. 16. 2013, naming Sochi Olympic delegation,” USA Today , The Looming facedown between China, the http://voiceofrussia.com/news/2013_11_16/Russia- Dec. 20, 2013, www.usatoday.com/story/sports/ EU and Russia,” School for Advanced Inter - may-ban-import-of-Polish-fruits-and-vegetables- olympics/sochi/2013/12/17/white-house-sochi- national Studies, Johns Hopkins University, 5949 /. olympics-delegation-to-include-gay-athlete/405 Dec. 4, 2013. 35 for background on Russian history, see 1581 /. 25 Zvi magen, “Putin flexes his muscles,” The Kenneth Jost, “Russia and the former Soviet 17 Brian Beary, “Emerging Central Asia,” CQ Jerusalem Report , Oct. 7, 2013, www.jpost. Republics,” CQ Researcher , June 17, 2005, pp. Global Researcher , Jan. 17, 2012, pp. 29-56. com/Jerusalem-Report/The-Region/Putin-flexes- 541-564. 18 Helen Robertson, “Russia’s energy trade his-muscles-326954 . 36 for a concise overview of Russian history, with China to quadruple by 2025,” Petroleum 26 David Des Roches, “Russia in the middle see Geoffrey Hosking, Russian History: A Very Economist , October 2013, www.petroleum- East: Help or Hinderance?” The Diplomatic In - Short Introduction (2012). economist.com/Article/3258056/Russias-energy- sight , Dec. 31, 2012. 37 See Jason mcClure, “Russia in Turmoil,” trade-with-China-to-quadruple-by-2025.html . 27 Rick Gladstone, “friction at the U.N. as Rus - CQ Researcher , feb. 21, 2012, pp. 81-104. 19 mK & Danfes, “Putin’s India visit furthers sia and China veto Another Resolution on Syria 38 Hoskings, op. cit. , p. 22. Indo-Russian Ties,” The Day After , Jan. 1, 2013 ; Sanctions,” The New York Times , July 19, 2012, 39 Jost, op. cit. also see “Indian Generic Drugmakers Pile Into www.nytimes.com/2012/07/20/world/middle 40 walter Richmond, The Circassian Genocide Russian market,” Business Monitor International , east/russia-and-china-veto-un-sanctions-against- (2013). march 14, 2013, www.pharmaceuticalsinsight. syria.html?_r=0 . 41 mcClure, op. cit. com/file/158892/indian-generic-drugmakers- 28 Professor Cross spoke at the “Round Table 42 for background, see Roland flamini, “Deal - pile-into-russian-market.html . on the NATO-Russian Relationship,” woodrow ing with the ‘New’ Russia,” CQ Researcher , 20 matthew Smith, “Brazil, Russia agree to space wilson International Center for Scholars, Jan. 10, June 6, 2008, pp. 481-504. and cyber collaboration,” Jane’s Defence Indus - 2014. 43 mcClure, op. cit. try , Nov. 1, 2013, www.janes.com/article/2851 29 “Press Availability with U.S. Secretary of State 44 for background, see Brian Beary, “The New 8/brazil-russia-agree-to-space-and-cyber-collabo John Kerry, Russian foreign minister Sergey Europe,” CQ Global Researcher , Aug. 1, 2007, ration . Lavrov and UN Special Representative Lakhdar pp. 181-210. 21 Jon Grevatt, “Russia increases defence in - Brahimi,” Paris, france, Jan. 13, 2014 , www.state. 45 flamini, “Dealing with the ‘New’ Russia,” dustrial presence in myanmar, vietnam,” Jane’s gov/secretary/remarks/2014/01/219604.htm . op. cit. Defence Weekly , march 5, 2013, www.janes. 30 “Kaliningrad: European fears over Russian 46 Ibid. com/article/11244/russia-increases-defence-in missiles,” BBC News, Dec. 13, 2013, www. 47 for details of Russia’s wTO membership dustrial-presence-in-myanmar-vietnam . bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-25407284 . obligations, see “Office of the United States 22 Andrey Slepnev, minister for trade, Eurasian 31 for background, see Roland flamini, “U.S.- Trade Representative’s Report on Russia’s Im - Economic Commission, speaking at Center for Europe Relations,” CQ Researcher , march 23, plementation of the wTO Agreement,” De - cember 2013, www.ustr.gov/sites/default/files/ Russia-wTO-Implementation-Report%20fINAL- About the Author 12-20-13.pdf . 48 See Beary, “Emerging Central Asia,” Brian Beary , a freelance Irish journalist based in Washington, op. cit. 49 David m. Herszenhorn, “Russia Putting A specializes in European Union (EU) affairs and is the U.S. Strong Arm On Neighbors,” The New York Times , correspondent for the daily newspaper, Europolitics. Original - Oct. 23, 2013, www.nytimes.com/2013/10/23/ ly from Dublin, he worked in Brussels from 1999-2006, com - world/europe/russia-putting-a-strong-arm-on- pleting internships in the EU Commission and European Par - neighbors.html?_r=0 . liament, and reporting on justice and home affairs policy for 50 “Ukraine’s protests: Praying for peace,” The Europolitics. Beary also writes for the Washington-based Eu - Economist , Jan. 30, 2014, www.economist.com/ ropean Institute. His most recent report for CQ Researcher news/europe/21595512-government-resigns- was “U.S. Trade Policy.” He also wrote the 2011 CQ Press book, opposition-protesters-remain-defiantly-streets- Separatist Movements, A Global Reference. praying . 51 “Obama’s 2014 State of the Union address:

140 CQ Researcher transcript,” ABC News, Jan. 28, 2014, www.cbs news.com/news/obamas-2014-state-of-the-union- address-full-text /. FOR MORE INFORMATION 52 “who is who in pro-EU protests events in The Atlantic Council , 1030 15th St., N.w., 12th floor, washington, DC 20005 ; Ukraine?” voice of Russia, Jan. 30, 2014, http:// 202-778-4952 ; www.atlanticcouncil.org . Think tank that promotes the trans-Atlantic voiceofrussia.com/2014_01_30/who-is-who-in- relationship, conducts research on defense, economic and foreign policies. pro-EU-protests-events-in-Ukraine-4142 /. 53 Joanna Sopinska, “Expert consultations on Brookings Institution , 1775 massachusetts Ave., N.w., washington, DC 20036 ; 202-797-6000 ; www.brookings.edu . Centrist think tank with a unit that studies Eastern Partnership agreements,” Europolitics , relations between the United States and Europe. Jan. 29, 2014. 54 Judy Dempsey, “Is This Ukraine’s Turning Carnegie Moscow Center , 16/2 Tverskaya, moscow 125009, Russia ; +7 495-935- Point?” Carnegie Europe , Dec. 9, 2013, http:// 8904 ; www.carnegie.ru . Division of the washington-based Carnegie Endowment carnegieeurope.eu/strategiceurope/?fa=53847 . for International Peace that does research and promotes debate on post-Soviet Russia and Eurasia. 55 “Remarks to the media following meeting with President Yanukovych,” U.S. Department Embassy of the Russian Federation to the United States of America , 2650 of State, Dec. 11, 2013, www.state.gov/p/eur/ wisconsin Ave., N.w., washington, DC 20007 ; 202-298-5700 ; www.russianembassy. rls/rm/2013/dec/218604.htm . org . Official representative of the Russian government in the United States. 56 “S.RES.319 — Expressing support for the Eurasian Economic Commission , Ul. Letnikovskaya 2, moscow 115114, Russia ; Ukrainian people in light of President +7 495 669 2400 ext. 4117 . Regulatory body of the Eurasian Economic Union; Yanukovych’s decision not to sign an Asso - aims to develop a free-trade area in Russia and the former Soviet republics. ciation Agreement with the European Union,” German Marshall Fund of the United States , 1744 R St., N.w., washington, U.S. Senate Resolution approved by unani - DC 20009 ; 202-683-2650 ; www.gmfus.org . foundation with several Russia-specialist mous consent on Jan. 7, 2014, http://thomas. scholars that promotes trans-Atlantic relations. loc.gov/cgi-bin/query/D?c113:3:./temp/~c113 Heritage Foundation , 214 massachusetts Ave., N.E., washington, DC 20002 ; 202- vhuJwD :: 57 546-4400 ; www.heritage.org . Conservative think tank that focuses in part on U.S.- Thomas O. melia, deputy assistant secre - Russia relations. tary, Bureau of Democracy, Human Rights and Labor, statement to the Senate foreign Relations School of Advanced International Studies , Johns Hopkins University, Nitze Committee hearing on the situation in Ukraine, Building, 1740 massachusetts Ave., N.w., washington, DC 20036 ; 202-663-5600 ; Jan. 15, 2014. www.sais-jhu.edu . foreign policy-oriented institution with expertise in the Central Asian-Caucasus region. 58 Ibid. 59 “Ratification of Russian military base deal Woodrow Wilson Center for International Scholars , Ronald Reagan Building provides Tajikistan with important security guar - and International Trade Center, One woodrow wilson Plaza, 1300 Pennsylvania Ave., antees,” Jane’s Intelligence Weekly , Oct. 2, 2013, N.w., washington, DC 20004 ; 202-691-4000 ; www.wilsoncenter.org . Think tan k with www.janes.com/article/27898/ratification-of- longstanding interest in Russia and Eastern Europe. russian-military-base-deal-provides-tajikistan- with-important-security-guarantees . 16/us-russia-missiles-idUSBRE9Bf0w020131216 . sion entitled “writing NATO’s Next Chapter: 60 “Neighbourhood watch: Russia’s response 65 “Sochi: Olympic flame in the Caucasus,” tele - The view from Norway,” Center for Strategic to insecurity in Central Asia,” Jane’s Intelligence conference, woodrow wilson Center for Inter - and International Studies, Jan. 9, 2014, http://csis. Review , Dec. 1, 2013. national Scholars, washington, D.C., Jan. 13, 2014. org/event/writing--next-chapter . 61 Dmitri Trenin and Andrew S. weiss, “Deal - 66 Ibid. 72 Gedvilas made his remarks at a discussion ing with the New Normal in U.S.-Russian Re - 67 masha Gessen, “Don’t be fooled by Putin,” on the EU’s Eastern Partnership, European In - lations,” Carnegie Endowment for International CNN, Dec. 21, 2013, www.cnn.com/2013/12/ stitute, Sept. 18, 2013. Peace, Dec. 20, 2013, http://carnegie.ru/2013/ 21/opinion/gessen-putin-khodorkovsky /. 73 Reinsalu, op. cit. 12/20/dealing-with-new-normal-in-u.s.-russian- 68 Zhemukhov made his remarks at a tele - 74 Statement to the Senate foreign Relations relations/gwto . phone conference call entitled “Sochi: Olympic Committee hearing on the situation in Ukraine, 62 Brooks Tigner, “NATO-Russian missile de - flame in the Caucasus,” organized by the Jan. 15, 2014. fence talks deadlocked,” Jane’s Defence Week - woodrow wilson International Center for 75 Blank was speaking at a conference enti - ly , Nov. 27, 2013, www.janes.com/article/30935/ Scholars, Jan. 13, 2014. tled, “Pushback to Putin’s Eurasian Dream? nato-russian-missile-defence-talks-deadlocked . 69 Chris weafer, “Russia’s Path to Progress Goes The Looming facedown between China, the 63 “Russian missile deployment to Kaliningrad Through OECD,” The Moscow Times , Dec. 11, EU and Russia,” School of Advanced Inter - does not heighten war risk but will cause de - 2013, www.themoscowtimes.com/opinion/ national Studies, Johns Hopkins University, cline in diplomatic relations,” Jane’s Intelligence article/-path-to-progress-goes-through- Dec. 4, 2013. Weekly , Dec. 18, 2013. /491391.html#ixzz2s0B47xi9 . 76 Starr was speaking at a conference entitled: 64 Steve Gutterman, “Russia has stationed Iskan - 70 See Brian Beary, “Race for the Arctic,” CQ “Pushback to Putin’s Eurasian Dream? . . .” der missiles in western region: reports,” Reuters, Global Researcher , August 2008, pp. 213-242. ibid. Dec. 16, 2013, www.reuters.com/article/2013/12/ 71 Soreide made her comments at a discus - 77 Osica, op. cit.

www.cqresearcher.com Feb. 7, 2014 141 Bibliography Selected Sources

Books Dec. 11, 2013 , http://cacianalyst.org/publications/analytical- articles/item/12879-reaching-the-summit-implications-of- Bullough , Oliver , The Last Man in Russia , Basic Books , vilnius-for-georgia.html . 2013 . A professor of Russian studies at mount Holyoke College In a mix of travelogue, sociological study and biography, examines the consequences of Georgia’s initialling major a British journalist and author who lived for several years in trade and association pacts with the EU in November 2013. Russia describes contemporary Russian society. Leigh , Michael , “Ukraine’s Pivot to Europe?” German Hill , Fiona , and Clifford G. Gaddy , Mr. Putin: Operative Marshall Fund of the United States , Nov. 13, 2013 , www. in the Kremlin , Brookings , 2013 . realclearworld.com/articles/2013/11/13/ukraines_pivot_ A senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, a major washing - to_europe.html . ton think tank, assesses vladimir Putin’s leadership of Russia. A senior adviser to the German marshall fund of the Unit - ed States, a nonpartisan organization that promotes trans- Hosking , Geoffrey , Russian History: A Very Short Intro - Atlantic cooperation, explains Ukraine’s dilemma in deciding duction , Oxford University Press , 2012 . whether to align itself with Russia or Europe. An emeritus professor of Russian history at University College London provides a succinct history of Russia, from its medieval Lindberg , Todd , “A Bear in the Desert: Why did the Obama origins to contemporary events. administration allow a Russian resurgence in the Middle East?” The Weekly Standard , July 1, 2013 , www. weeklystan Judah , Ben , Fragile Empire: How Russia Fell in and dard.com/articles/bear-desert_736859.html . out of Love With Vladimir Putin , 2013 . A research fellow at the conservative Hoover Institution An associate fellow at the European Council on foreign criticizes President Obama for allowing Russia to reassert itself Relations sketches a revealing portrait of the Russian leader. in the middle East.

Mankoff , Jeffrey , Russian Foreign Policy: The Return of Osica , Olaf , “The Eastern Partnership: Life Begins after Great , Rowman & Littlefield Publishers , 2011 . Vilnius,” Center for European Analysis , Dec. 13, 2013 , http:// A fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies cepa.org/content/eastern-partnership-life-begins-after-vilnius . examines how Russian foreign policy has developed since A director of the Centre for Eastern Studies in warsaw urges the end of the Cold war. the EU to try to keep Georgia and moldova on their current pro-EU path. Stent , Angela E. , The Limits of Partnership: US-Russian Relations in the Twenty-First Century , Princeton Uni - Trenin , Dmitri , and Andrew S. Weiss , “Dealing With the versity Press , 2014 . New Normal in U.S.-Russian Relations,” Carnegie Endow - The director of the Center for Eurasian, Russian and East ment for International Peace , Dec. 20, 2013 , http:// European Studies at Georgetown University describes U.S.- carnegie.ru/2013/12/20/dealing-with-new-normal-in-u.s.- Russian relations since the collapse of the Soviet Union. russian-relations/gwto . Two scholars outline how Russia’s U.S. relations deteriorated Articles in 2013.

Dempsey , Judy , “Is This Ukraine’s Turning Point?” Carnegie Reports and Studies Europe , Dec. 9, 2013 , http://carnegieeurope.eu/strategic europe/?fa=53847 . “Report on Russia’s Implementation of the WTO Agreement,” A journalist and scholar assesses where Ukraine may be Office of the U.S. Trade Representative , December 2013 , www. headed geopolitically. ustr.gov/sites/default/files/Russia-WTO-Implementation- Report%20FINAL-12-20-13.pdf . Des Roches , David , “Russia in the Middle East: Help or The U.S. agency that negotiates trade agreements reports Hinderance,” The Diplomatic Insight , Dec. 31, 2012 , pp. on how Russia is complying with its obligations at the world 19-20 , http://thediplomaticinsight.com/wp-content/ Trade Organization, which Russia joined in 2012. uploads/2013/01/december-2012-magazine.pdf . An associate professor at the National Defense University “U.S.-Russia Bilateral Presidential Commission — 2013 Joint examines Russia’s role in current middle Eastern politics. Report,” United States Department of State , December 2013 , www.state.gov/documents/organization/219326.pdf . Jones , Stephen , “Reaching the Summit: Implications of The report describes the main areas where the United States Vilnius for Georgia,” The Central Asia-Caucasus Analyst , and Russia cooperate bilaterally.

142 CQ Researcher The Next Step: Additional Articles from Current Periodicals

Immigration score.blogs.time.com/2014/01/17/sochi-expected-to-be- the-most-expensive-olympics-ever /. “Race riots: A wake-up call for Russia?” Al Jazeera , Oct. 19, The estimated cost of the 2014 winter Olympics, believed 2013 , www.aljazeera.com/programmes/insidestory/2013/10/ to be the most expensive in history, has risen from $12 bil - race-riots-wake-up-call-russia-201310197442469348.html . lion when Russia won the bid to host the event in 2007 to Eighty-six percent of Russians feel their government should $50 billion today. limit the influx of foreign workers, a Ukrainian polling in - stitute found. Shanker , Thom , “U.S. and Russia Discuss Olympic Se - curity,” The New York Times , Jan. 21, 2014 , www.nytimes. Weir , Fred , “Russia needs immigrants, but can it accept com/2014/01/22/world/europe/us-offers-russia-high-tech- them?” The Christian Science Monitor , Oct. 27, 2013 , www. aid-to-thwart-sochi-terror.html?_r=0 . csmonitor.com/World/Europe/2013/1027/Russia-needs- Russia is in talks with the United States on whether to use immigrants-but-can-it-accept-them . sophisticated American security equipment developed by the many Russians resent non-Slavic immigrants, but a reporter Pentagon, in addition to Russian equipment, to heighten se - contends that Russia needs immigration because its popula - curity at the winter Olympics. tion is shrinking. U.S. Relations Middle East Heritage , Timothy , and Gabriela Baczynska , “Russia denies Borshchevskaya , Anna , “Russia’s growing Middle East in - visa to U.S. journalist critical of Putin,” Reuters , Jan. 14, fluence,” CNN , Jan. 8, 2014 , http://globalpublicsquare.blogs. 2014 , www.reuters.com/article/2014/01/14/us-russia-usa- cnn.com/2014/01/08/russias-growing-middle-east-influence . journalist-idUSBREA0D0AH20140114 . A fellow at the European foundation for Democracy says Russia has banned a U.S. journalist critical of President Russia has become a key player in resolving conflicts in the vladimir Putin from the country for five years, which could middle East. upset U.S.-Russian relations and raises concerns about the treatment of media in Russia. Gardner , Frank , “Russia in the Middle East: Return of the bear” BBC , Nov. 14, 2013 , www.bbc.co.uk/news/world- Martinez , Michael , “3 issues that have chilled U.S.-Russia middle-east-24944325 . ties,” CNN , Sept. 6, 2013 , www.cnn.com/2013/09/05/ A reporter says American influence in the middle East has world/us-russia-key-issues /. waned, but Russia’s influence in the region is the highest in A reporter outlines key issues that have negatively affected a generation. U.S.-Russian relations: Snowden, gay rights and the Syrian conflict. Sasley , Brent E. , “Russia No Threat to America in Middle East,” The National Interest , Sept. 23, 2013 , http://national interest.org/commentary/russia-no-threat-america-middle- CITING CQ RESEARCHER east-9113?page=2 . Sample formats for citing these reports in a bibliography A political science professor says America’s influence in the middle East is changing rather than disappearing and that include the ones listed below. Preferred styles and formats Russia is not a threat to American power. vary, so please check with your instructor or professor. Sochi Games mLA STYLE Jost, Kenneth. “Remembering 9/11.” CQ Researcher 2 Sept. Arabasadi , Arash , “Mounting Threats Against Sochi Olympics 2011: 701-732. Worry Terrorism Experts,” The Voice of America ,Jan. 28, 2014 , www.voanews.com/content/mounting-threats- APA S TYLE against-sochi-winter-olympics-worry-terrorism-experts/18 Jost, K. (2011, September 2). Remembering 9/11. CQ Re - 39571.html . Terrorism experts worry about increasing threats to the searcher, 9 , 701-732. winter Olympics, especially because of Sochi’s proximity to CHICAGO STYLE militant Islamist groups in the northern Caucasus. Jost, Kenneth. “Remembering 9/11.” CQ Researcher , Sep - Rawlings , Nate , “Sochi Expected to Be the Most Expen - tember 2, 2011, 701-732. sive Olympics Ever,” Time , Jan. 17, 2014 , http://keeping

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