Research Center INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS DIVISION Expertise Agency of DPR RI Gd. Nusantara I Lt. 2 Jl. Jend. Gatot Subroto Jakarta Pusat - 10270 c 5715409 d 5715245 m [email protected] A BRIEF STUDY OF ACTUAL AND STRATEGIC ISSUES Vol.XII No. 24/II/Puslit/December/2020

THE ASSASINATION OF MOHSEN FAKHRIZA- DEH AND THE TENSION IN THE MIDDLE EAST Simela Victor Muhamad 7 Abstract Currently, the assasination of Iranian nuclear scientist Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, has garnered media attention. It is interesting to dissect and examine the escalated tension and political instability in the Middle East, that is possibly caused by it. This paper examines to reveal Fakhrizadeh's presence as an important figure in the development of 's nuclear program. At one side, it has a strategic value for , but at the same time raises concerns -- especially for , which is Iran's rival power in the area. The killing of Fakhrizadeh, which was allegedly carried out by the (national intelligence agency of Israel), has the potential to spark tensions in the Middle East and regional instability, if the warring parties use military approach in addressing this case. Regional instability will be detrimental to all parties, includes an increase in already-neglected Palestinian issue. Hence, dialogue approach and multilateralism needs to be reestablished, involving international communities, to solve every problem that can threatens the stability in the Middle East region, including the Iran nuclear issue and the resolution of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

Introduction Soleimani, Commander of The Political climate in The Middle Iran Revolutionary Guards Corps' East region is heating up again, Al-Quds Force in Baghdad, Iraq, triggered by the assasination of the January 3rd. Soleimani has a renowed Iranian nuclear scientist, big role in Iran military foreign Mohsen Fakhrizadeh. He died in operations, while Fakhrizadeh is an an ambush as he drove towards important figure important behind Absard (about 88 kilometers to the the development of Iran's nuclear east of Tehran) Friday, November program. Various group denounce 27th, 2020. Iran accuses Israel as the killing and calling all parties to a mastermind behind this famed refrain. PUSLIT BKD nuclear scientist assasination (The Farhan Haq, deputy Jakarta Post, November 29th, 2020). spokesman for UN Secretary- Fakhrizadeh, an important figure, General Antonio Guterres, is the second Iranian killed this condemn every murder or year after the ambush of Qassem arbitrary lives' disappearance, as experienced by Fakhrizadeh, It is well known that Iran's nuclear and urge all parties to hold back program raised negative sentiments and underline the importance to from many parties, including Israel. avoid any action that can lead to Prime Minister of Israel, Benjamin escalating the tension in the region. Netanyahu, called Fakhrizadeh British Foreign Minister, Dominic (59 years old) as the father of Iran's Raab, admitted he was concerned nuclear program. In April 2018, over the situation that happened in several weeks after Israel took the Iran and the surrounding area, and secret documents regarding Iran's hope the tension is lowered. He also nuclear program, Israeli television emphasized to all parties to stick shows Netanyahu's displaying to the International Humanitarian photos of Fakhrizadeh stating every Law, that is very clearly against Israeli to remember his names, civilian assasination (aljazeera.com., which is then interpreted as a target November 28th, 2020). to be sought by Israel (kompas. 8 Meanwhile, Permanent com., November 30th, 2020). It Representative of the Islamic can be seen that Israel concerns Republic of Iran to the United of Fakhrizadeh's figure, who has Nations -- Majid Takht Ravanchi, a strategic roles in advancing the through the letter sent to the UN Iran's nuclear program. Secretary General -- Antonio Iran state that its nuclear Guterres, stated that Iran has any ambition was developed for right to defend themselves in peaceful purposes. According to danger. Ravanchi also asks the UN the report by British media -- BBC, Security Council to condemned currenly Iran did not have any the killing and take a step against nuclear weapons program. BBC the criminal (republika.co.id., declared that since the beginning, November 28th 2020). At least until Iran declined developing any this paper has been made, UNSC nuclear weapons program. has not responded his request. Although, BBC reported that Media coverage mention that Iran collect many necessary and the assasination of Fakhrizadeh knowledgeable elements, enough could have implications on the to create nuclear weapons for Middle East's destabilization. It is military purposes. (bbc.com., interesting to explore more on the January 14th, 2020). In 2015, possibility of escalating tension United States Government under in the area, after the murder of President Obama administration, Mohsen Fakhrizadeh. has predicted it will only take Iran 2-3 months to produce nuclear IRAN NUCLEAR PROGRAM materials, sufficient to make First, we need to discuss about weapons. Since July 2020, Iran Iran Nuclear Program, because you gradually raised their uranium might get the "connecting lines" production, and declare it is from here, or the underlying causes right to do so, in response to the between the Fakhrizadeh murder US sanctions when they cancel and the possibility of political the agreement in 2018. France, tension in the Middle East region. Germany, and England can't accept Iran's argument, but however, they under the Iran Nuclear Deal. Israel's want to salvage the deal through infuriation towards the US can dialogue. Under the nuclear boiled down to instability on the agreement, Iran agreed to limit Middle East. their senstive activities and allow international monitoring access in MIDDLE EAST'S exchange to spurn the intenational INSTABILITY NEED TO BE sanctions. PREVENTED Back to the case Fakhrizadeh. The description above In 2011, The International indirectly shows that Fakhrizadeh Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) is an important figure in developing mentioned Fakhrizadeh as the Iran's nuclear program. At most, “Executive Officer” of AMAD it is strategic for Tehran, but in Plan, Iran's Nuclear Program. face value, it simultaneously raises 9 Iran never allowed Fakhrizadeh concerns, especially for Israel, to be questioned by the IAEA which is Iran's rival power in the during various inspections, as per Middle East region. Therefore, Nuclear Deal 2015. Iran lost four the "elimination" of Fakhrizadeh, of their nuclear scientists before, at least from Israeli perspective, killed between 2010 to 2012. Israel is a must. It concludes to the story is believed to have carried out of Mossad (national intelligence numerous covert over agency of Israel) who "search and that past two years. Same case with destroy" Fakhrizadeh, because Fakhrizadeh's, Israel masterminded he jeopardize Israel's interests the assassination. Israel has not (Rahman, 2020: 4). issued any official statement Another concern is any relating to the case. implications of Fakhrizadeh's It is an interesting fact that the assasination to the political time of Fakhrizadeh's assasination situation in the Middle East region, is in less than two months before especially related to the tension the inauguration of US President- between Iran and Israel, creating elect, . Is there any regional instability. It is not visible connection between the two things? at the moment, but every character There will never be an explanation. development from both parties However, Biden's plan to revive needs to be observed. Netanyahu and rejoined the Iran Nuclear administration, for example, Deal, which was abandoned by released a warning Iran that the US during Israeli forces are ready to face any administration at Israel's insistence, possibilities from Tehran, although made Netanyahu uncomfortable. it may raises tension in the Middle Through the murder of East. Iran, on the other hand, under Fakhrizadeh, Israel seems to send a the leadership of the President warning message that they will not , might not shown be silenced and watching the US any excessive comments against rejoined the multilateral deal with Netanyahu's statement, but at some the top five world powers (China, point, they can directly attack Israel, UK, Germany, France and Russia) or through its alliance with Syria and Hamas in the Palestine. region. According to a report There are hope that both published by the Centre for parties can reach a dialogue and Strategic and International Studies multilateralism approach, to seek (CSIS) in August 2019, Iran have and slove the occured problem in a ballistic missile power with the the Middle East region, including longest-range in the Middle East. to reopen Iran's Nuclear Deal, Iranian missiles are capable of even if it's hard, with the new US reaching targets in 2,500 kilometers President-elect Joe Biden, defeating away from its border (republika. Donald Trump (Turak, 2020). US co.id., July 14th, 2020). Iran's role in determining issues in Middle missile capabilities has been shown East can not be ignored, including when they attack an oil facility of tensions between Israel and Iran. Saudi Arabia, Aramco, in 2019. It The election of Joe Biden as the new is implored if the same weapon US President, whom during Obama 10 will be used against Israel. Iran Administration is supporting and Saudi Arabia, as two of the Iran Nuclear Deal, expected to main forces of Shia and Sunni bring a fresh breeze with his Islam in the world, is in the middle multilateralism approach, not only of competing and exerting their in responding to Iranian nuclear influence and power in the Middle and its relation with Israel, but also East. Therefore, it is not surprising acknowledge the unending Israeli- if Saudi Arabia, or other Sunni Palestinian conflict as a root of any Arab countries except for Turkey, conflict problems in the Middle does not criticize Fahkrizadeh's East. assasination, the nuclear scientiest from the enemy country. CLOSING This means, tension escalated The assasination of Iran's in the Middle East has the potential nuclear scientist Mohsen to expand. Although the conflict Fakhrizadeh will spark tensions and is between Iran and Israel, they encourage instability in the Middle can also invite other forces in the East region. Especially for Iran and region, even external, to take part Israel, if they can't further control in feud appropriated with their the situation using power approach respective interests, as reflected in to solve problems between them. the Syrian war. This situation must Political instability in the Middle be prevented and addressed by the East will affect all affairs in the international community through Middle East, including the already- dialogue and the multilateralism neglected issue on Palestine. approach, due to the escalated Dialogue and multilaterism and uncontrollable tensions in the approach needs to be revived and Middle East. In the near future, implemented to end disturbing and Middle East can be regarded as threatening problems for regional a difficult and terrible war zone. stability. Among the issues are In addition, the Iranian nuclear isssue and Israeli- issue looms in the background is Palestinian conflict settlement. responsible to the instability in the Newly elected US President Joe Biden carried out multilateralism, top-iran-yang-tewasdibunuh, and with international supports, accessed on December 2nd, including from Indonesia with 2020 its Non-Aligned Movement, is “Program Nuklir Iran yang expected to contribute in realizing Diributkan Barat dan Negara peace and stability in the Middle Arab”, republika.co.id., July East. 18th, 2020, https://republika. co.id/berita/qdnz83440/ programnuklir-iran-yang- REFERENCES diributkanbarat-dan-negara- “Iran Accuses Israel of arab, accessed on December Assassinating Scientist and 2nd, 2020. Seeking Chaos”, The Jakarta Rahman, Musthafa Abd. 2020. Post, November 29th 2020, “Kisah Mossad Israel Memburu 11 page 6. Fakhrizadeh”, Kompas, “Iran Nuclear Crisis in 300 Words”, December 1st, 2020, page 4. bbc.com., Januari 14th, 2020, “Rudal-rudal Iran Mampu https://www.bbc.com/news/ Menjangkau Arab Saudi”, world-middle-east-48201138, republika.co.id., July 14th, accessed on December 1st, 2020, https://republika. 2020. co.id/berita/qdgb64377/ “Iran Tuduh Israel dalam laporan-rudalrudaliran- Pembunuhan Kepala Program mampu-menjangkauarabsaudi, Nuklirnya”, republika.co.id., accessed on December 7th, November 28th, 2020, https:// 2020. republika.co.id/berita/ Turak, Natasaha. 2020. “A Biden qkhmht414/iran-tuduh- Administration Wants the israeldalang-pembunuhan- Iran Nuclear Deal Back. That kepalaprogram-nuklirnya, could be much harder and accessed on December 1st, riskier now”, cnbc.com., 2020. 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Simela Victor Muhamad [email protected]

Drs. Simela Victor Muhamad, M.Si. is the Main Expert Researcher on Strategic Political Issues, International and Domestic Issues at the Research Centre - Expertise Agency (Puslit BKD) for House of Representatives Indonesia. Active as a researcher at the House of Representative Indonesia's BKD Research Center, he is appointed to provide substantive support related to international relations issues to the House members. Some of the scientific papers that have been published, including: “Kejahatan Transnasional Penyelundupan Narkoba ke Indonesia: Masalah dan Upaya Penanganannya” (as a part of Aktor Non-Negara: Kajian Implikasi Kejahatan Transnasional di Asia Tenggara book, published by Yayasan Obor, Indonesia, 2017); "Isu Keamanan Semenanjung Korea dan Upaya Damai Parlemen." (article in Jurnal Politica Vol 7 No.1, May 2016); “Peran Asian Parliamentary Assembly dalam Mendukung Solusi Damai Palestina-Israel” (article in Jurnal Politica, Vol. 8 No. 1, May 2017); “Indonesia dan Kerja Sama Internasional Penanggulangan Terorisme di Kawasan” (as a part of Kerja Sama Internasional Melawan Terorisme book, published by Yayasan Obor, Indonesia, 2018); and “Proxy War dalam Konflik di Lebanon” (as a part of Proxy War di Timur Tengah book, published by Yayasan Obor, 2019).

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