The technical and business challenges in wide deployment of WLAN Hotspot Networks
Victor Bahl
http://research.microsoft.com/~bahl Microsoft Research
ACM WMASH 2003 Panel, Sept. 19, 2003 Disclaimer
TheseThese areare mymy personalpersonal opinionsopinions onlyonly andand notnot necessarilynecessarily thatthat ofof MicrosoftMicrosoft CorporationCorporation
Victor Bahl Reference
P. Bahl, A. Balachandran et. al, “PAWNs: Satisfying the Need for Ubiquitous Secure Connectivity and Location Services,” IEEE Wireless Communications, Vol. 9, no. 1 (February 2002) Hardware Growth & Costs z Analysts project 48 million 802.11-enabled Laptops and PDA’s by 2007 z Gartner forecasts over 16 million access points and over 100 million LAN adapters worldwide by 2005 z Prices for access points and adaptors continue to fall, with more than 50 vendors shipping equipment z Enterprise APs dropped from $1000 to $375 with a 20x volume increase in 2001 z Retail adaptor prices went from $250 to $50 z BOM has dropped below $5 for .11b chip sets z Growth of WiFi Phones
Victor Bahl WiFi phones? z Motorola announced a Wi-Fi phone for VoIP (early 04) z Nokia z D211 GPRS/Wi-Fi PC Card available now z GPRS/Wi-Fi phone beta in late 2003 z Qualcomm MSM7000 chip with integrated ARM CPU, CDMA, and Wi-Fi (early 04) z HP & Dell have announced integrated phone/Wi-Fi PPCs in 04
Victor Bahl Wi-Fi Landscape
Major Operators: Aggregators: z T-Mobile z GRIC z TeliaSonera z IPass z AT&T Wireless z Boingo z Verizon Wireless z rovingIP.net
Emerging National (U.S.) Operators: Hot Spot Operators: z Wayport z Azure Networks z Cometa z Sip’n’Surf z Air-2-Lan Other emerging Branded Service Providers: z FatPort z Broadreach Networks z Earthlink z Broadband Express z AOL z Pronto Networks
Victor Bahl Wi-Fi Landscape: Addl. Stake Holders
IBM & Accenture z Backend services Intel, TI, AMD z WiFi chips and mobile services Cisco z IOS on WiFi networking Toshiba, Apple z Experience HP z Hardware
Victor Bahl Reality in Pictures
Victor Bahl What do I know about this subject..
The Choice Network (Jan.(Jan. 19991999 –– Nov.Nov. 2001)2001) z First Public Area WiFi Network (PAWN) z Deployed in Crossroads Shopping Center, Bellevue, Washington, USA
Features z Intranet and Internet access z Global authentication z Privacy for users and security for operators z Differentiated services based on policies z Location based services z Roaming support between multiple networks z Packet level accounting z Ease of deployment
Victor Bahl Broadband wireless Internet connectivity & location services in public places: http://www.mschoice.com
Victor Bahl Business Models
WISPWISP StartStart--upsups
CellularCellular OperatorsOperators buybuy outout // InvestInvest inin WISPsWISPs Wi-Fi fills in 3G gaps and provides higher speed Æ T-Mobile runs the hotspots in Starbucks Æ Sprint invested in Boingo OrganicOrganic GrowthGrowth The CHOICE Network Æ Global authentication Æ Individual Centric Æ Cost and maintenance of equipment & services by local entity Æ Tuned services: e.g. context and location aware
Victor Bahl PAWN Customers
InitialInitial targettarget -- IndividualsIndividuals z NotNot veryvery successfulsuccessful z ChickenChicken andand eggegg problem,problem, notnot enoughenough hothot-- spots,spots, subscribersubscriber feefee isis high,high, fewfew takerstakers
EvolvingEvolving towardstowards BusinessesBusinesses z Rethinking,Rethinking, gogo afterafter thethe mobilemobile workforceworkforce
Here’s the justification……..
Victor Bahl Mobile Workforce
2005 Estimate: 4.5 million users out of 16 million mobile workers will use PAWNs
US Mobile Workforce in All Industries (Year End) 21,000 20,312 20,000 19,532 19,000 18,782 10 Year CAGR: 4% 18,061 18,000 17,368 In 2005 82% of all business 17,000 16,701 16,059 16,000 15,443 laptops 14,850 15,000 14,280 will include WiFi versus 37% of 13,731 Employees (000s) Employees 14,000 13,000 Consumer lapops 12,000 11,000 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Hope: The mobile workforce will drive a need for increasingly greater hot spot deployment
Victor Bahl What about Subscriber Cost?
Hope: Pressure from competition will continue to drive down pricing over time while also fueling hot spot buildout
Current Monthly Pricing for PWLAN Service
$80 $75 Providers $70 $60 $50 $50 Average $36 $40 $30 $30 $30 $25 $25 $20 $20 $20 $10 $0
ro e o ited cal ar ional o P at Joltage i Metr Wayport ingo iF o hereU o Unlim ile N B W b Mobile L ing T o B T Mo
Want: Pricing needs to get below $25/month
Victor Bahl PAWN Market
Total Retail US PWLAN Subscribers
10,000 9,333 9,000
8,000 7,196 3,373 7,000 Consumer Business 5 Year CAGR: 92% 6,000 2,506
5,000 4,551
4,000 1,604
Subscribers (000s) Subscribers 3,000 2,549 5,960 4,690 2,000 845 990 2,947 1,000 215 354 1,705 60 776 0 294 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
~9 million subscribers paying $25 / month results in a $2.7 billion services market by 2007.
Victor Bahl So, what am I we saying …
Victor Bahl The CHOICE model is good
Small hotspot operators (WISPs) have tried & failed z e.g. Mobilestar bankruptcy
Large Telcos can’t cover it all (not growing fast enough) z Ignore small businesses (malls, restaurants, museums etc.) z Impacting the mobile workforce alone is not enough z Benefits of hardware cost reduction not passed on to user
Win-Win for all: Organic Growth (CHOICE) z Targets the individual z Small businesses become hot-spots (greater overall coverage) z All stakeholders benefit z Easy to incorporate location services
Victor Bahl Thanks!
Details in:
P. Bahl, A. Balachandran et. al, “PAWNs: Satisfying the Need for Ubiquitous Secure Connectivity and Location Services,” IEEE Wireless Communications, Vol. 9, no. 1 (February 2002)
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