The Good, the Bad & the Possibilities ’s Political State of Affairs Lay of the Land Conference 2020, February 28, 2020 Florida Has Changed If Florida were a country, it would be 17th largest economy

Florida Will Continue to Change There will be over 5M new residents by 2030 We will need 1.5M new jobs

Good, the Bad, and the Possibilities 1994 Voters 2004 Voters 2019 Voters

6,559,598 10,476,437 3 13,443,420 Registration Comparisons Over Time

Total State: 13,546,604 35% 37% 28% (4,766,546) (4,988,406) (3,791,652)

This Month: 50,733 34% 29% 37% (17,022) (14,465) (19,246)

Republican Year to Date: 640,321 Democratic 30% 30% 40% NPA/Other (192,698) (195,581) (252,042)

Since Last Election: 718,043 30% 30% 40% (217,551) (218,004) (282,488) SCOTT ERA New Voters Since November 2010

Percentage of total voters that are new since 2010

21% - 28%

>28% - 36%

>36% - 40%

>40% Need 1,500,000 New Jobs by 2030 26,000,000 People by 2030 6 Florida’s Next 4.5 Million People Top 10 Growth in People Top 10 Growth in Percent 1. Miami-Dade 639,060 1. Sumter 51.8% 2. Orange 451,990 2. Osceola 50.7% 3. Hillsborough 412,926 3. St. Johns 43.9% 4. Broward 329,843 4. Walton 41.5% 5. Palm Beach 279,976 5. Lake 34.3% 6. Duval 225,250 6. Nassau 34.0% 7. Lee 212,763 7. Santa Rosa 33.8% 8. Osceola 178,394 8. Orange 33.5% 9. Polk 171,439 9. Flagler 32.2% 10. Pasco 129,769 10. Liberty 31.6%

Top 3 Counties get 33.4% of the Growth: Top 6: 52.0% Top 13: 75.5% Data Source: Bureau of Economic and Business Research (BEBR) Population Studies Group, University of Florida ✓ Florida the most important battleground state ✓ Elections are so expensive because 3 separate elections (Early, By Mail & Election Day) $22 per vote more than $150 million spent on Gov race Florida Florida Florida: Always a Battleground

2000 2004 2008 2012 2016

Bush (R) – 2,912,790 Bush (R) – 3,964,522 Obama (D) – 4,282,074 Obama (D) – 4,237,756 Trump (R) – 4,617,886 48.85% 52.10% 51.03% 50.01% 49.02%

Gore (D) – 2,912,253 Kerry (D) – 3,583,544 McCain (R) – 4,045,624 Romney (R) – 4,163,447 Clinton (D) – 4,504,975 48.84% 47.09% 48.22% 49.13% 47.82%

Bush +0.01% Bush +5.01% Trump +1.19% Obama +0.87% Obama +2.81% Top of the Ticket 2016 and 2018 Comparision

2016 Florida General Election Presidential 2020 Election Cycle

2020 Election Cycle • Presidential race The road to the • No US Senate race in Florida • All 27 Congressional races 2020 White • Entire FL House/ half FL Senate • 7 term-limited House goes • 18 term-limited Florida House • 9 “open seats through Florida. • Supreme Court Justices • Constitutional Amendments • >2500 local elections Important Dates to Know for 2020 Election

DEADLINE TO EARLY ELECTION DATE REGISTER VOTING Presidential Preference Primary March 17 February 18 March 7--14

Primary Election August 18 July 20 August 8--15

General Election November 3 October 5 October 24-- 31 Top Voter Concerns

Statewide Healthcare Jobs Global Warming Other 18 12 9 Education 9% Immigration 6% Men 17 15 10 Immigration 6% Women 19 8 8 Education 12%

Republicans 12 12 6 Immigration 12% Democrats 25 12 12 Education 7%

NPA/Other 18 12 8 Education 9%

White 15 10 11 Education 10% Black 24 14 5 Education 5% Hispanic 22 13 9 Education 10% Political Views Impact Policy Decisions Right Direction vs. Wrong Direction

Current Statewide 63:24 Current Statewide 63:24 Men 73:17 Jacksonville 62:29 Women 54:31 Gainesville 33:25

Tallahassee 72:11 Panama Republicans 85:9 59:30 City/Pensacola Democrats 44:38 Orlando/Daytona 64:23 Others 57:26 Tampa/St. Pete 67:21

Ft. Myers/Naples 63:18 White 69:20 Broward/Miami 60:28 African- 38:38 West Palm 64:24 American Hispanic 62:25 President Donald Trump Job Approval

100 90 90

80 78

70 Job Approval Pres. Trump 60 56 49 50 46 43 Disapprove 40

Pres. Trump 30

20 18

10 4

0 Total Voters Democrats Others Republicans Governor DeSantis Job Approval

100 92 90

80

70 68 Job Approval 64 Gov. DeSantis 60 49 50

40 Disapprove 32 Gov. DeSantis 30 18 20 14 10 4

0 Total Voters Democrats Others Republicans Senate Members Up In 2020*

Member Party District Member Party District Lori Berman Democrat SD 31 Lizbeth Benacquisto Republican SD 27 Randolph Bracy Democrat SD 11 Rob Bradley Republican SD 05 Oscar Braynon Democrat SD 35 Doug Broxson Republican SD 01 Bill Montford Democrat SD 03 Anitere Flores Republican SD39 Democrat SD 29 Republican SD 21 Jose J. Rodriguez Democrat SD 37 Joe Gruters Republican SD 23 Darryl Rouson Democrat SD 19 Gayle Harrell Republican SD 25 Linda Stewart Democrat SD 13 Travis Hutson Republican SD 07 Perry Thurston Democrat SD 33 Debbie Mayfield Republican SD 17 Victor Torres Democrat SD 15 David Simmons Republican SD 09

* Members highlighted are termed limited in 2020 Senate Members Termed in 2020

SD 05 Bradley - R

Member Party District

Lizbeth Benacquisto R SD 27 SD 03 Montford - D SD 09 Simmons - R Rob Bradley R SD 05 Oscar Braynon, II D SD 35 Anitere Flores R SD 39 SD 21 Galvano - R Bill Galvano R SD 21 SD 35 Braynon - D David Simmons R SD 09 SD 27 Benacquisto - R Bill Montford D SD 03

SD 39 Flores - R Map shows districts Trump/Clinton Won in 2016 Open House Districts in 2020

9 4 Incumbent P HD - Reason 4 Mel Ponder R HD 04 –County Commission 5 3 Loranne Ausley D HD 09 – Open Montford 9 John Cortes D HD 43 – Osceola Clerk 7 Bryon Donalds R HD 80 – Running for Congress 2 Javier Fernandez D HD 114 – Open Flores 10 Adam Hattersley D HD 59 – Congress (Spano) 5 11 Margaret Good D HD 72 – Congress (Buchanan) 4 Wengay Newton, Jr. D HD 70 – County Commission Ana Maria Rodriguez R HD 105 – Open Flores 19 House Battlegrounds in 2020

Incumbent Pty HD - Reason Chuck Clemons R HD 21 – Kayser Enneking Elizabeth Fetterhoff R HD 26 – Patrick Henry rematch- 61 vote diff in 2018 Geraldine Thompson D HD 44 – Trump turnout Adam Hattersley D HD 59 – Open Seat Margaret Good D HD 72 – Open Seat Strong R candidates Michael Caruso R HD 89 – Rematch with Bonfiglio 32 vote diff in 2018 Ana Maria Rodriguez R HD 105 – Environment for GOP Vance Aloupis R HD 115 – Trump Holly Raschein R HD 120 – True Swing seat

20 Constitutional Amendments Date Filed Title Ballot Number 18-01 Raising Florida's Minimum Wage 2 Citizenship Requirement to Vote 18-14 1 in Florida Elections All Voters Vote in Primary 19-07 Elections for State Legislature, 3 Governor and Cabinet Voter Approval of Constitutional 19-08 4 Amendments

21 Florida’s $15 Minimum Wage Amendment: Estimate of Job Losses by Year

2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 0

-20,000 -23,154 -23,022 -26,222 -25,047 -40,000

Total Job Loss by -60,000 2030: 575,810 -66,233 -80,000 -72,053 -79,958 -80,301 -83,448 Loss of 478,365 jobs -100,000 -96,372 by 2026

-120,000

Source: Fenstemacher, Fisher, Hadzalic, Hillebrandt. FSU Masters in Applied Economics Student Paper, Summer 2019. Marian Johnson mjohnson@flchamber 850-521-1241