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Published by Sutton Publishing, Phoenix Mill Seller Rating:. Hard Cover. Condition: Near Fine binding. Dust Jacket Condition: Near Fine dust jacket. Tall Octavo; no markings of any kind. Seller Inventory More information about this seller Contact this seller 1. Condition: Very Good binding. Three Illustrations; No pencil or ink markings in text. Brown embossed cloth binding. Light to moderate edgewear to extremities. Very Good binding. More information about this seller Contact Black Swan 1st edition seller 2. Published by Elm Grove Press About this Item: Elm Grove Press, Dust Jacket Condition: Very Good dust jacket. Signed by Author. Illustrated; No pencil Black Swan 1st edition ink markings in text. Shelf-wear to lower spine. Light bump to top of spine. Light bump to top of dj spine. Small closed tear at bottom of front dj cover at dj spine; DJ protected with Mylar Cover. More information about this seller Contact this seller 3. Published by Thomas B. Mosher, Portland, ME About this Item: Thomas B. Mosher, Portland, ME, Soft Cover. The binding in the original Mosher Press wrappers is tight and without tears or creases; it is slightly cocked, and has a previous owner name from on the first blank page. It is housed in a patterned paper-covered slipcase which has some separation and minor loss. More information about this seller Contact this seller 4. A clean copy with no marks of any kind. This copy bound upside-down. Near Fine binding. More information about this seller Contact this seller 5. Published by J. Speed Art Museum About this Item: J. Speed Art Museum, A previous owner name and stamp on the title page. Otherwise, a clean copy. More information about this seller Contact this seller 6. Importers of Wines and Liquors. Washington Street, Syracuse, N. From the second decade of the 20th century. More information about this Black Swan 1st edition Contact this seller 7. Published by Viking Press, New York Condition: Fine binding. First Edition. An advance reading copy, the special ABA Edition. A Fine copy with no marks or creases. Fine binding. More information about this seller Contact this seller 8. Published by University of California Press About this Item: University of California Press, A clean First Edition copy with no marks of any kind; the dustjacket is attractive and bright; it is now protected with a new mylar cover. More information about this seller Contact this seller 9. Published by Tidewater Publishers, Centreville, Maryland Dust Jacket Condition: Fine dust jacket. A First Edition copy which has been signed with a personal inscription on the title page by the author Larry Chowning. The dustjacket is bright; it has not been price-clipped and is now protected with a new mylar cover. More information about this seller Contact this seller Previous owner gift inscription. Now the location of the Bellevue Elementary School. Postmarked About this Item: Magic prop or stage money. With a truly crazed looking Black Swan 1st edition. A clean First Edition copy with no marks of any kind; in an attractive dustjacket which has not been price-clipped. Miniature book: 6 x 4. A clean copy on the curious habits and notions of Victorians, including interesting details on their everyday life. Published by New York About this Item: New York, A fresh First Edition copy with no marks of any kind, in a bright and unclipped dustjacket. With a wraparound band announcing the book as a Black Swan 1st edition in the Virginia Commonwealth University First Novelist nominee. First American Edition. A clean First Edition copy. Bound in blue cloth with a blue and yellow dustjacket. Book and dustjacket are both in Fine condition. A clean copy. Color photographs throughout. A pictorial history of the Virginian town. Stapled Pamphlet. This copy from the personal library of Civil War historian James I. Robertson with his bookplate on the verso of the front cover. Rubber stamp from the commission on the title page. Original Wrappers. Eliot, with an illustration of the author on the front cover. Spots of wear to the Black Swan 1st edition and writing in pencil to the front cover. Published by Vikas Publications About this Item: Vikas Publications, This copy with no marks of any kind. The dusjtacket is bright, with a bit of wear and a closed tear; it has not been price-clipped and is now protected with a new mylar cover. Signed by the author with a personal Black Swan 1st edition on the front endpaper; otherwise, this copy has no marks of any kind. In a bright and untorn dustjacket. Illustrated; Some spotting on front cover; No Markings in Text. Published by Harenberg Kommunikation, Dortmund About this Item: Harenberg Kommunikation, Dortmund, Black Swan 1st edition in German. Black swan theory - Wikipedia

The black swan theory or theory of black swan events is a metaphor that describes an event that comes as a surprise, has a major effect, and is often inappropriately rationalised after the fact with the benefit of hindsight. The theory was developed by to explain:. Taleb's "black swan theory" refers only to unexpected events of large magnitude and consequence and their dominant role in history. Such events, considered extreme outlierscollectively play vastly larger roles than regular occurrences. The phrase "black swan" derives from a Latin expression; its oldest known occurrence is from the 2nd-century Roman poet Juvenal 's characterization in his Satire VI of something being " rara avis in terris nigroque simillima cygno " "a rare bird in the lands and very much like a black swan". The importance of the metaphor lies in its analogy to the fragility of any system of thought. A set of conclusions is potentially undone once any of its fundamental postulates is disproved. In this case, the observation of a single black swan would be the undoing of the logic of any system of thought, as well as any reasoning that followed from that underlying logic. Juvenal's phrase was a common expression in 16th century London as a statement of impossibility. However, inDutch explorers led by Willem de Vlamingh became the first Europeans to see black swansin Western Australia. Taleb notes that in the 19th century, used the black swan logical fallacy as a new term to identify falsification. Black swan events were discussed by Nassim Nicholas Taleb in his book Black Swan 1st edition, which concerned financial events. His book The Black Swan extended the metaphor to events outside of financial markets. Taleb regards almost all major scientific discoveries, historical events, and artistic accomplishments as "black "—undirected and unpredicted. He gives the rise of Black Swan 1st edition Internetthe personal computerWorld War Ithe dissolution of the Soviet Unionand the September 11, attacks as examples of black swan events. Taleb asserts: [9]. What we call here a Black Swan and capitalize it is an event with the Black Swan 1st edition three attributes. First, it is an outlier, as it lies outside the realm of regular expectations, because nothing in the past can convincingly point to its possibility. Second, it carries an extreme 'impact'. Third, in spite of its outlier status, human nature makes us concoct explanations for its occurrence after the fact, making it explainable and predictable. I stop and summarize the triplet: rarity, extreme 'impact', and retrospective though not prospective predictability. A small number of Black Swans explains almost everything in our world, from the success of ideas and religions, to the dynamics of historical events, to elements of our own personal lives. According to Taleb, the COVID pandemic is not a black swan, but is considered to be a white swan ; such an event has a major effect, but is compatible with statistical properties. The practical aim of Taleb's book is not to attempt to predict events which are unpredictable, but to build robustness against negative events while still exploiting positive events. Taleb contends that banks and trading firms are very vulnerable to hazardous black swan events and are exposed to unpredictable losses. On the subject of business, and quantitative finance in particular, Taleb critiques the widespread use of the normal distribution model employed in financial engineeringBlack Swan 1st edition it a Great Intellectual Fraud. Taleb elaborates the robustness concept as a central topic of his later book, : Things That Gain From Disorder. Taleb states that a black swan event depends on the observer. For example, what may be a black swan surprise for a turkey is not a black swan surprise to its butcher; hence the objective should be to "avoid being the turkey" by identifying areas of vulnerability in order to "turn the Black Swans white". Taleb's black swan is different from the earlier philosophical versions of the problem, specifically in epistemologyas it concerns a phenomenon with specific empirical and statistical properties which he calls, "the fourth quadrant". Taleb's problem is about epistemic limitations in some parts of the areas covered in decision making. These limitations are twofold: philosophical mathematical and empirical human known epistemic biases. The philosophical problem is about the decrease in knowledge when it comes to rare events as these are not visible in past samples and therefore require a strong a priorior an extrapolating theory; accordingly predictions of events depend more and more on theories when their probability is small. In the fourth quadrant, knowledge is uncertain and consequences are large, requiring more robustness. According to Taleb, [14] thinkers who came before him who dealt with the notion of the improbable, such as HumeMilland Popper focused on the in logic, specifically, that of drawing general conclusions from specific observations. Black Swan 1st edition central and unique attribute of Taleb's black swan event is that it is high-profile. His claim is that almost all consequential events in history come from the unexpected — yet humans later convince themselves that these events are explainable in hindsight. One problem, labeled the ludic Black Swan 1st edition by Taleb, is the belief that the unstructured randomness found in life resembles the structured randomness found in games. This stems from the assumption that the unexpected may be predicted Black Swan 1st edition extrapolating from variations in statistics based on past observations, especially when these statistics are presumed to represent samples from a normal distribution. These concerns often are highly relevant in financial markets, where major players sometimes assume normal distributions when using value at risk models, although market returns typically have fat tail distributions. Taleb said "I don't particularly care about the usual. If Black Swan 1st edition want to get an idea of a friend's temperament, ethics, and personal elegance, you need to look at him under the tests of severe circumstances, not under the regular rosy glow of daily life. Can you assess the danger a criminal poses by examining only what he does on an ordinary day? Can we understand health without considering wild diseases and epidemics? Indeed Black Swan 1st edition normal is often irrelevant. Almost everything in social life is produced by rare but consequential shocks and jumps; all the while almost everything studied about social life focuses on the 'normal,' particularly with 'bell curve' methods of inference that tell you close to nothing. Because the bell curve ignores large deviations, cannot handle them, yet makes us confident that we have tamed . More generally, decision Black Swan 1st editionwhich is based on a fixed universe or a model of Black Swan 1st edition outcomes, ignores and minimizes the effect of events that are "outside the model". Consequently, the New York Stock Exchange and Nasdaq exchange remained closed till September 17,the most protracted shutdown since the Great Depression. Taleb notes that other distributions are not usable with precision, but often are more descriptive, such as the fractalpower lawor scalable distributions and that awareness of these Black Swan 1st edition help to temper expectations. Beyond this, he emphasizes that many events simply are without precedent, undercutting the basis of this type of reasoning altogether. Taleb also argues for the use of counterfactual reasoning when considering risk. From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia. Theory of response to surprise events. The Black Swan: the impact of the highly improbable 2nd ed. London: Penguin. Retrieved 25 April The American Journal of Philology. Johns Hopkins University Press. Retrieved 23 April Saturae in Latin. Retrieved 20 January The New York Times. McKinsey Black Swan 1st edition. Retrieved 23 May That's why I kept going on and on against financial theories, financial-risk managers, and people who do quantitative finance. Columbia University. The Financial Times. New Black Swan 1st edition. Archived from the original Black Swan 1st edition 20 April Nassim Nicholas Taleb. Cognitive bias . Categories : Epistemological theories Metatheory of science Black swans Metaphors referring to animals Metaphors referring to birds. Hidden categories: CS1 Latin-language sources la Webarchive template wayback links Articles with short description Short description is different from Wikidata Use dmy dates from December All articles with unsourced statements Articles with unsourced statements from January Articles with unsourced statements from February Namespaces Article Talk. Views Read Edit View history. Help Learn to edit Community portal Recent changes Upload file. Download as PDF Printable version. Editions of The Black Swan by Mercedes Lackey

The book focuses on the extreme impact of rare and unpredictable outlier events—and the human tendency to find simplistic explanations for these events, retrospectively. Taleb calls this the Black Swan theory. The book covers subjects relating to knowledge, aestheticsas well as ways of life, and uses elements of fiction and anecdotes from the author's life to elaborate his theories. It spent 36 weeks on the New York Times best-seller list. A central idea in Taleb's book is not to attempt to predict Black Swan events, but to build robustness to negative events and an ability to exploit positive events. Taleb contends that banks and trading firms are vulnerable to hazardous Black Swan events and are exposed to losses beyond those predicted by their defective financial models. The book asserts that a "Black Swan" event depends on the observer: for example, what may be a Black Swan surprise for a turkey is not a Black Swan surprise for its butcher. Hence the objective should be to "avoid being the turkey", by identifying areas of vulnerability in order Black Swan 1st edition "turn the Black Swans white". Taleb has referred to the book as an essay or a narrative with one single idea: "our blindness with respect to randomness, particularly large deviations. Part One and the beginning of Part Two delve into psychology. Taleb addresses science and business in the latter half of Part Two Black Swan 1st edition Part Three. Part Four contains advice on how to approach the world in the face of uncertainty and still enjoy life. Taleb acknowledges a contradiction in the book. He Black Swan 1st edition an exact metaphor, the Black Swan idea to argue against the "unknown, the abstract, and imprecise uncertain—white ravens, pink elephants, or evaporating denizens of a remote planet orbiting Tau Ceti. There is a contradiction; Black Swan 1st edition book is a story, and I prefer to use stories and vignettes to illustrate our gullibility about stories and our Black Swan 1st edition for the dangerous compression of narratives You need a story to displace a story. Metaphors and stories are far more potent alas than ideas; they are also easier to remember and more fun to read. In the Black Swan 1st edition chapter, the Black Swan theory is first discussed in relation to Taleb's coming of age in the Levant. The author then elucidates his approach to historical analysis. He describes history as opaque, essentially a black box of cause and effect. One sees events go in and events go out, but one has no way of determining which produced what effect. Taleb argues this is due to The Triplet of Black Swan 1st edition. She published her book on the web and was discovered by a small publishing company; they published her unedited work and the book became an international bestseller. The small publishing firm became a big corporation, and Krasnova became famous. This incident is described as a Black Swan event. The book Black Swan 1st edition on to reveal that the so-called author is a work of fiction, based in part on Taleb. The third chapter introduces the concepts of Extremistan and Mediocristan. He uses them as guides to define the predictability of the environment one is studying. Mediocristan environments can safely use Gaussian distribution. In Extremistan environments, a Gaussian distribution should be used at one's own peril. Chapter four brings together the topics discussed earlier into a narrative about a turkey who is fed and treated well for many consecutive days, only to be slaughtered and served as a meal. Taleb uses it to illustrate the philosophical problem of induction and how past performance is no indicator of future performance. He then takes the reader into the history of Black Swan 1st edition. In chapter nine, Taleb outlines the multiple topics he previously has described and connects them as a single basic idea. In chapter thirteen, the book discusses what can be done regarding epistemic arrogance. He recommends avoiding unnecessary dependence on large-scale harmful predictions, while being less cautious with smaller matters, such as going to a picnic. He makes a distinction between the American cultural perception of failure versus European and Asian stigma and embarrassment regarding failure: the Black Swan 1st edition is more tolerable for people taking small risks. The term black swan was a Latin expression: Black Swan 1st edition oldest reference is in the poet Juvenal 's expression that "a good person is as rare as a black swan" "rara avis in terris nigroque simillima cygno", 6. Aristotle's "Prior Analytics" is the most likely original reference that makes use of example syllogisms involving the predicates "white", "black", and "swan. This example may be used to demonstrate either deductive or inductive reasoning; however, neither form of reasoning is infallible, since in inductive reasoning, the premises of an argument may support a conclusion, but do not ensure it, and similarly, in deductive reasoning, an argument is dependent on the truth of its premises. That is, a false Black Swan 1st edition may lead to a false result and inconclusive premises also will yield an inconclusive conclusion. The limits of the argument behind "all swans are white" is exposed—it merely is based on the limits of experience e. The point of this metaphor is that all known swans were white until the discovery of black swans in Australia. Hume 's attack against induction and causation is based primarily on the limits of everyday experience and so too, the limitations of scientific knowledge. Mathematics professor David Aldous argued that "Taleb is sensible going on prescient in his discussion of financial Black Swan 1st edition and in some of his general philosophical thought, but tends toward irrelevance or ridiculous exaggeration otherwise. From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia. Redirected from The Black Swan book. Dewey Decimal. March 27, Random House Trade Paperbacks. Retrieved November 5, — via Amazon. The American Journal of Philology. Retrieved October 1, The Sunday Times. February 24, Retrieved November 5, The New York Times. NoticesMarchpp. The Guardian. Retrieved January 7, Nassim Nicholas Taleb. Cognitive bias Epistemology. Categories : non-fiction books Books by Nassim Nicholas Taleb Contemporary philosophical literature Epistemology literature books. Namespaces Article Talk. Views Read Edit View history. Help Learn to edit Community portal Recent changes Upload file. Download as PDF Printable version. Hardcover first edition. Epistemologyphilosophy of sciencerandomness. Random House U. Allen Lane U. Fooled by Randomness. The Bed of Procrustes.