bar, black and white workers regularly gather forms “The Wire’s” moral core. together after work. They don’t love one an- That moral core, which is the belief in other or necessarily agree on union matters, human possibility in the face of formidable but they sit together. Their bar happens to be structural forces, may be as good a departure one of the few spaces, perhaps the only one in point as any for artistic explorations of politics television history, where groups of black and in an era of ever-widening inequalities, when white men socialize together — connected, the language of “branding” and “monetizing” SHMA.COM in this case, by frayed ties of labor solidar- determines values, and the public good seems ity. Here we see the flickering humanism that little more than a quaint concept. Stuck in the Middle (East) AARON DAVID MILLER

early three years in, what remains of major civil strife and massive violence. In , the so-called Arab Spring lies in ruins. full-scale civil war prevails with estimates of as NAnd so do American expectations for many as 130,000 dead and scores of thousands credible transitions from authoritarian societies injured; in Iraq, violence has surged against to democratic polities. In response to the Arab the backdrop of an authoritarian Shia regime Spring, the Obama administration really did in Baghdad and the growing influence of Sunni see itself on the right side of history and hoped jihadis. Iraqi and Syrian sectarian tensions have for outcomes that would, over time, produce also spilled into Lebanon, for years a nonstate democratic life, gender equality, good govern- with a central government unable to control its ment, and respect for human rights. own territory. Sad to say, the warning of the With the possible exception of Tunisia, fourth-century historian Tacitus seems to have where a popular uprising may produce a good come to pass: The best day after the death of a result, and where a new constitution and a bad emperor is always the first day. power-sharing arrangement have been agreed For the past three years, the United States upon, the popular uprisings of 2011 break has tried to find its footing in a region it can down into one of two outcomes: the bad and neither transform nor leave. Washington’s ca- the ugly. The breadth of regional change is so pacity to significantly influence the internal de- great and the constraints on effecting change velopments in these societies is very limited. are so severe, the best we will be able to do And the key features with which it now has to is to influence internal developments at the contend in this region — identified below — margins. And there is no one-size-fits-all ap- will make America’s task all the more difficult. proach. We will need to deal with situations differently as our interests demand. The Dissolution of Power First, the bad: In Egypt and Yemen, the up- The period between 1970 and the beginning of risings that led to the end of two authoritarian the Arab spring in 2011 was an era of consoli- regimes — those of presidents Hosni Mubarak dation of state power and control in counties and Abdullah Salah, respectively — have been ei- as diverse as Egypt, Tunisia, Iraq, Syria, and ther coopted and controlled by more traditional Libya. While these authoritarian governments Sh’ma forces, or they have failed to produce better gover- proved durable, they were not durable enough in your Inbox nance and genuine reforms. In Bahrain, the Sunni to surmount the challenge of sustained popu- Take advantage of our ruling family, with the support of Saudi Arabia, lar uprisings. And, in Egypt and Tunisia, the FREE Sh’ma e-letter. Every month, you’ll receive suppressed the majority Shia and some Sunni calls militaries refused to repress popular protests. updates on featured for reform that would have produced a real con- The speed with which the regimes col- essays, S Blog posts, stitutional democracy with respect for individual lapsed indicated the weakness of their overall online art exhibitions, rights and greater representation regardless of sect. control and legitimacy. And the demise of these exclusive bulk copy offers, And in Libya, a NATO military operation removed regimes has ushered in a decentralization and unique opportunities for subscribers, and President Muammar Qadhafi and his regime. But dissolution of power that will likely continue in much more! for three years now, Libya’s factional, regional, the near future. By 2007, this trend was already Sign up now at and tribal divisions have prevented the formation evident in Iraq, where the Kurds established shma.com of a coherent central government. their own ministate, and where a Shia majority And these were not the ugly outcomes of controls the levers of power at the expense of

[8] MARCH 2014 | ADAR II 5774 an aggrieved Sunni minority. The trend was Iraq. All have been greatly weakened. As well, also evident in Lebanon and in the West Bank they will likely be preoccupied with internal af- and Gaza, where Fatah and Hamas compete for fairs — playing less of a role on the regional stage. control of the Palestinian national movement and represent a “Noah’s Ark,” where there are The Prospects for Democratization two of everything — constitutions, ministates, Since 1950, only 22 countries in the world have and security services. Even in Egypt, where the maintained their democratic character con- 1 military has reasserted itself, there is little pros- tinuously. The democratic club is tiny within SHMA.COM pect of policies that will be able to deliver good the perspective of time — the ultimate arbi- governance and economic reform. ter of what is of value in life. It took 150 years for the United States to reconcile the promise The Survival of the Arab Kings contained in the Declaration of Independence with It is noteworthy that the Arab kings — in the reality that the U.S. Constitution validated Morocco, , and Saudi Arabia — and the slavery until the ratification of the Thirteenth emirs of Kuwait, United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Amendment, which abolished slavery in 1866. and Oman, survived the Arab Spring. The rea- Indeed, time will be required. But the trend sons vary: oil wealth capable of co-opting and lines do not look good. The United States should preempting dissent, a popular sense that these avoid getting drawn into choosing sides in these rulers had Islamic legitimacy, and a perception internal conflicts and understand the limitations that the kings were far less cruel. The inhabit- of its influence. And we should understand ants of these lands had far fewer grievances what real democratization requires: first, leaders and had suffered much less at the hands of capable of rising above their narrow partisan or Aaron David Miller currently their rulers; as they watched what the Arab institutional (military or bureaucratic) affinities, serves as vice president Spring became, they were loath to bring one to think about the interests of the nation as a for new initiatives and as a to their neighborhoods. The durability of these whole; second, institutions that reflect popular distinguished scholar at the Woodrow Wilson International regimes should not, though, obscure the chal- legitimacy and are perceived to be representa- Center for Scholars in lenges they face. And the paradox for America tive and functional; and finally, a respect for de- Washington, D.C. For two is clear: Having not pushed for meaningful re- bate on the most volatile issues without politics decades, he served as an forms in these places, America is now more spilling into the streets and leading to massive adviser to Republican and identified with the nondemocratic kings than demonstrations and violence. Democratic secretaries of ever before. Indeed, the Saudis and the UAE, to state, helping to formulate U.S. policy on the Middle East whom we have sold billions in military goods, Shrinking Space for America and the Arab-Israeli peace have become even more important to us as America’s capacity to influence the internal process. He most recently held stable polities in an unpredictable region. politics of societies in the midst of profound the position of senior adviser transitions is quite limited. After involving for Arab-Israeli negotiations The Rise of the Non-Arabs 140,000 troops and spending trillions of dollars at the U.S. State Department. He has written four books on In the Middle East today, there are three truly in Afghanistan and Iraq, we could not funda- the Middle East, most recently consequential powers, and they are all non- mentally alter the politics of those two nations. The Much Too Promised Land: Arabic: , Iran, and Turkey. Whatever di- Given that reality, it’s almost inconceivable that America’s Elusive Search for vides these countries, they all have domestic the United States can do much from the side- Arab-Israeli Peace (Bantam, political stability, great economic potential, lines in the reshaped Middle East. 2008). He is also the author of and strong militaries. Israel and Turkey have Egypt is a clear example. We provide the the forthcoming book The End of Greatness: Why America long-established relationships with the United government of Egypt with $1.3 billion a year Can’t Have (and Doesn’t Want) States; Iran may well aspire to one, if the in- and yet our capacity to use that assistance to re- Another Great President. terim agreement leads to discussions and the direct the policies of the current Egyptian leader- Miller appears frequently on amelioration of tensions with America on other ship has been virtually nonexistent. Under these CNN, , MSNBC, regional issues. If U.S.-Iranian relations do im- circumstances, whether we reduce aid, restrict NPR, and the BBC. His articles have appeared in many prove significantly, it may well cause serious it, or provide it, we have not been able to get newspapers, including the New problems in Washington’s relations with the the ear of the generals controlling the country. York Times, the Washington Arab Gulf states, particularly Saudi Arabia. And our inconsistent statements — first, we Post, and the Los Angeles The issue is less about how these three non- were seen to support a Morsi government; then, Times. His weekly column, Arab countries will impact regional politics and we refused to call the military’s move a ‘coup’; Reality Check, appears in more about the fall of key Arab states. Three Arab then, we backed the military’s road map for a Foreign Policy Magazine. regimes have traditionally dominated the struggle constitutional referendum; then, we restricted 1 The list of these 22 countries is posted for power in the Arab world — Egypt, Syria, and continued on next page on shma com.

MARCH 2014 | ADAR II 5774 [9] aid — have left Egyptians confused and alienated. American values (support for democracy, gender American policies are driven by a presi- equality, and human rights), policies (press- dent who is more focused on the middle class ing for change in Egypt but not in Saudi Arabia (his constituency, and the group with whom or Bahrain), and interests (a need to maintain his legacy lies) than the Middle East. And those bases in Bahrain and not cause disruption in policies — at least in regard to playing a more the flow of oil by supporting movements that active role in Syria or Egypt, or on the issue of might cause instability among the oil producers) SHMA.COM promoting democracy in the region — are risk- are at war with one another. And it is unlikely, averse rather than risk-ready. given the challenges and complexities of the re- And, like those of most great powers, our gion, that we can harmonize them. There is no policies are inconsistent and anomalous, even cookie-cutter approach to this region. America Sh’ma though they may serve narrow U.S. interests. is stuck in a region it cannot leave or transform. on Kindle We intervene in Libya but not in Syria, where We need to focus on what we can achieve and Find us at: strong allies — such as Iran and Russia — as avoid overreach to avoid what we can’t. That kindle.amazon.com well as air defenses and a credible military are means articulating our values without preach- The free Kindle too risky for us; we support an Arab Spring ing, encouraging countries such as Egypt to con- application lets you in Egypt, but fail to call for reform in Saudi tinue toward a democratic transition and to find read Kindle books on Arabia, where we do not want to see disrup- ways to improve its economy. And in Syria, we your iPad, iPhone tive change. We set red lines on Syria’s use of should continue to provide humanitarian aid and or iPod touch—no chemical weapons against civilians, but then pursue efforts to push for a political solution. Kindle required. defer to Congress on the use of military force We may continue to delude others that we can Sh’ma also on: — in large part because the president knows in be a force for democratization in the Middle the wake of Afghanistan that there is no public East, but we should not delude ourselves. We support, and he wants to avoid military action are limited to the margins: articulating our val- that could undermine his desire for a deal with ues and providing economic assistance, etc. Iran on the nuclear issue. Though we think we should and can fix things; Finally, we need to understand that we can’t. The Gift of Denial MICHELLE FRIEDMAN

e all know the raw, painful residue children connect cause and effect. An angry of disappointment that is left in the thought causes a sibling to get sick; a naughty Wwake of dashed dreams and fallen deed triggers a typhoon. hopes. A developmental overview helps us to Several defensive responses branch off understand this feeling. Consider how chil- from that notion of responsibility. Some chil- dren, who, of course, become adults, respond dren internalize the idea that disappointment, when their trust and expectations are betrayed or even tragedy, is the result of their own or met with rejection or scorn. Young children wrongdoing. This leads them to feel scared or lean toward openness. They develop character ashamed. For example, young children whose and evolve ideals through identification with parents divorce typically feel that their angry the people they look up to — most signifi- feelings or errant behaviors are to blame for cantly, their parents. By nature, children reveal the rift in their family. While this flawed logic themselves and connect with others. Children gives them some sense of control in a rup- must also learn that together with openness tured world, it also burdens them with a fear Michelle Friedman, M.D. is the comes vulnerability. This is a necessary fact of their own power. They perceive criticism director of pastoral counseling of life. Inevitably, either specific conditions or from others as further confirmation of how at Yeshivat Chovevei Torah the behavior of people closest to them will fail bad they are, and they are likely to feel humil- Rabbinical School in New York, to validate their hopes and desires. When this iated. Other children respond to disappoint- an associate clinical professor happens, the way small children try to make ment by withdrawal. This defensive style may of psychiatry at the Mount sense of their situation is by believing that their lead them to pull away from those closest to Sinai Medical Center, and a psychiatrist and psychoanalyst thoughts or actions caused whatever went them, and it sets up a life-long pattern of re- in private practice in wrong to happen. However self-important buffing intimacy with others. In an effort to Manhattan. and magical such thinking seems, this is how retake control, such children may develop a

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