Seasonal Food Security and Nutrition Analysis Unit - Climate Update Seasonal Rainfall and NDVI, April - June, 2012 Gu 2012

This seasonal climate update, a joint effort of FSNAU, MARS-JRC, FEWS NET and SWALIM, is produced after every seasonal assessment (Gu and Deyr), to provide an overall view of the seasonal performance.The data and analyses in this publication are based on remote sensing (RFE and NDVI) and complimented by rain gauge data collected by SWALIM Highlights Map 1: Gu 2012 Cumulative Rainfall Rainfall

The Gu 2012 rains were average in most of the northern regions and in parts of the central regions. However, in most of the southern and central regions, rains were sporadic in terms of both spatial and temporal distribution. The start of Gu rains was generally delayed by 1 - 2 dekads. The season was characterized by limited period of high intensity rains and by a major dry-spell from April to early May in most areas in the South. Areas with poor rainfall in the North comprise of Guban livelihood zones of Awdal/ W. Galbeed/ Sanag, Coastal Deeh of Bari and Nugal regions. In Central, most of Addun, Cowpea and Coastal Deeh livelihood zones received depressed rainfall, whilst in the southern regions of Bay, , , , parts of and most of the Juba’s received below normal rainfall.

Satellite-derived Rainfall Estimates (RFE) for Gu 2012 (Map 1 and 2) confirm the prevalence of below normal rainfall in most of the above-mentioned areas. Rains in Ethiopean Highlands ensured average river levels in Somalia in April, but the levels fell back to below normal in May due to reduction of rainfall activity. However, parts of southern and central Somalia experienced river and flash floods in late April and early May. River flooding was due to embankment cut, which was reported in some villages in of Lower Shabelle region and in of Midlle Shabelle. Flash floods were reported in of Bay region and Data source: NOAA in district of region.

Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) Somalia LivelihoodSOMALIA: LIVE ZonesLIHOOD ZONES

Calula

The Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) shows general ly normal DJIBOUTI Gulf of Aden Qandala Zeylac Bossaaso Lughaye AWDAL Ceerigaabo Las Qoray/Badhan vegetation conditions in the northern and in parts of the central regions of the country. Baki Berbera SANAG Iskushuban Borama Ceel Afweyne Sheikh BARI In the South, most of the regions show small to large decrease in vegetation vigour. Gebiley W. GALBEED Hargeysa Qardho Burco Owdweyne Xudun Caynabo Talex Bandar Beyla TOGDHEER Small decrease in vegetation conditions is evident in small to large areas in Shabelle, SOOL

Laas Caanood Dangoroyo Bay, Bakool, Gedo and the Juba’s (Map 3). Specifically, large decrease in vegetation Buuhoodle Garowe Eyl NUGAL vigour is depicted in Lower Shabelle (Riverine and South- East pastoral livelihood Burtinle Jariiban ETHIOPIA Goldogob Galkacyo n a e zones) and in Juba ( agropastoral and riverine, parts of Southern Inland c O

n Cadaado MUDUG ia d Hobyo n and South-East pastoral livelihood zones). Most of Shabelle agropastoral and Sakow Cabudwaaq I agropastoral in Juba portray close to normal vegetation conditions. Dhusa Mareeb GALGADUD Harardheere Ceel Barde Beled Weyne BAKOOL Ceel Bur HIIRAN Livelihood zones Rab-Dhuure Xudur Addun Pastoral: Mixed sheep & goats, camel Dolo Ceel Dheere Awdal border & coastal towns: Petty trading, fishing, salt mining Bulo Barde Luuq Wajid Tayeglow Central regions Agro-Pastoral: Cowpea, sheep & goats, camel, cattle Coastal Deeh: Sheep Aden Yabal Dawo Pastoral: Shoats, cattle, camel Beled Hawa Jalalaqsi Baydhaba Cadale East Golis Pastoral: Frankinncense Garbaharey Fishing Jowhar M. SHABELLE Data Sources Gagaab Pastoral: Frankincense Qansax Dheere Wanle Weyne Guban Pastoral: Sheep, goats & camel GEDO BAY Hawd Pastoral: Camel, sheep & goats Ceel Waq Bur Hakaba Balcad Hiran Agro-Pastoral Hiran riverine: Sorghum, maize, cattle & shoats Afgoye Baardheere Dinsor /" BANADIR Juba pump irrigation: Tobacco, onions, maize MOGADISHU Kakaar-Dharor Pastoral: Sheep, goats, camel

A Qoryoley Sakow L. & M. Shabelle Agro-Pastoral Irrigated: Maize/Sorghum & cattle Maps and graphs in this bulletin are produced from three sources: Y Kurtun Warrey Marka L. & M. Shabelle Agro-Pastoral rain-fed: Maize,cowpeas, sesame & cattle

N M. JUBA Sablale Lower Juba Agro-Pastoral: Maize & cattle

E L. SHABELLE North-West Agro-Pastoral: Sorghum, cattle Bu'aale North-West Valley Agro-Pastoral: Irrigated vegetables, shoats K Hagar Brava • Current Rainfall Estimates and NDVI data are derived from NOAA AVHRR and SPOT VEGETATION, Nugal Valley Pastoral: Sheep & camel Potato zone & vegetables Afmadow Jilib Shabelle riverine: Maize, fruits & vegetables Sool-Sanag Plateau Pastoral: Camel, sheep & goats while the rain gauge data is collected by FAO-SWALIM South-East Pastoral: Cattle, sheep & goats L. JUBA Jamaame Southern Agro-Pastoral: Camel, cattle, sorghum Southern Juba riverine: Maize, sesame, fruits & vegetables Southern coastal pastoral: Goats, cattle Kismayo • The seasonal profiles and long term trends on page 2 are produced in collaboration with MARS-JRC Togdheer Agro-Pastoral: Sheep, goats & vegetables ± Urban West Golis Pastoral: Goats, camel, sheep Badhadhe 0 20 40 80 120 160 200 Bay-Bakool Agro-pastoral Low Potential are utilise a combination of FAO-Africover and FAO-SWALIM land cover classes to derive RFE and Kilometers Bakool Agro-pastoral Low Potential Bay Agro-pastoral High Potential Southern Inland Pastoral: Camel, Sheep & Goats

Datum: WGS84, Data Source: FSAU, 2009, NDVI summaries. For more information visit http://mars.jrc.ec.europa.eu/mars/About-us/FOODSEC Admin. layers: UNDP, 1998

Technical Partner Funding Agencies Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation SDC Food Security and Nutrition Analysis Unit - Somalia http://www.fsnau.org P.O. Box 1230 Village Market, Nairobi, Kenya Email: [email protected] tel: 254-20-4000000 fax:254-20-4000555 FSNAU is managed by FAO The boundaries and names on these maps do not imply official endorsement or acceptance by the United Nations. The regional & District boundaries reflect those endorsed by the Government of the Republic of Somalia in 1986.

Technical and Managerial Support Funding Agencies

Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation SDC

Food Security and Nutrition Analysis Unit - Somalia (FSNAU), P.O. Box 1230, Nairobi, Kenya. Tel: +254 722 - 202 146/ 733 - 616 881/ 20 4000500, Email: [email protected], Website: www.fsnau.org Gu Rainfall and NDVI

rd Map 2: Gu 2012 Rainfall as % of Long Term Map 3: 3 Dekad of June 2012 NDVI Absolute Mean Difference from Long Term Mean

Data source: SPOT

Togdheer Pastoral (Savannah) Nugal Pastoral (Savannah) Saanag Pastoral (Savannah)

Hiran Agropastoral (Rainfed) Middle Shabelle Agropastoral (Rainfed) Lower Shabelle Riverine (Irrigated)

Gedo Pastoral (Open Shrubs) Bay Agropastoral (Rainfed) Bakool Agropastoral (Rainfed)

2 Long term rainfall and NDVI trends for selected districts

Agricultural Areas Agriculture

The Gu season cereal harvest was generally below average in all cropping regions, with the exception of Middle Shabelle, which received above average harvest of maize and sorghum. RFE and NDVI difference from the LTM (pg.2) show a large negative difference in some selected agropastoral and riverine crop producing regions in the South.

Below normal rains with poor spatial distribution is the main factor contributing to poor production. Isolated incidence of pest infestation (cricket and stalk borer) was reported in , Cowpea Belt in Central, Bay Bakool, Gedo and in parts of Shabelle. Crop moisture stress was reported in rainfed areas for late-planted crop (early May) in Lower Shabelle and in Middle Juba. the growth of re-planted crops (after cricket damage) in Bay region was hampered by a prolonged dry spell. Source: SWALIM/Africover

Selected districts with good crop production Buloburti Agropastoral Hargeisa Agropastoral

Selected districts with poor crop production

Sakow Riverine Jamamme Riverine

Garbaharey Agropastoral Baidoa Agropastoral

3 Long term rainfall and NDVI trends for selected districts

Pastoral Areas Pasture Pasture conditions remained average in most livelihoods throught the season. However, field reports indicate poor pasture conditions in the northern pastoral livelihoods of Guban, the East-Golis of Erigabo and Lasqoray in Sanaag and Coastal Deeh of Ishkushuban and Alula. Pasture conditions are also poor in the coastal areas of Central. In the South, poor pasture is discernible in the pockets of agropastoral areas of Adale and Aden Yabal districts, agropastoral of Hiran region and Coastal Deeh of Shabelle regions.

Gu 2012 rains have improved water availability by replenishing natural water catchments and berkads. Livestock body conditions are generally average to good, except in Guban livelihood, with opportunistic normal migration in most livelihoods. The coastal areas of the Shabelle and Juba Valleys, as well as parts of Bay, receive Hagaa rains in July to September. Source: FAO-Africover

Selected districts with poor pasture conditions Jilib Pastoral Jamame Pastoral

Elwak Pastoral Borama Pastoral

Selected districts with good pasture conditions

Rabdhure Pastoral Galkayo Pastoral

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