An Analysis of the 16Th Presidential Election in Korea

〈特集アジアの大統領選挙〉

An Analysis of the 16th Presidential Election in Korea

-Regionalism , Generational Effects, and Changing Values-

Kim, Wook

Abstract: The major characteristics of the 16th Presidential election of Korea can be summarized as the three points. One is the weakening of regional voting, thus opening up the possibility of changes in Korean regionalism. Another characteristic is the widening gap between generations in terms of their voting behavior and political values. The third is the change in the mode of election campaigning, as internet emerged as an important instrument for campaigning. The three points are closely related to one another. The weakening of regionalism is partly a reflection of young voters' changing values and voting pattern. The change in the mode of election campaigning is also related to young voters' changing values, and their willingness to participate actively in the electoral process. In this sense, one can argue that young voters' changing values are the cornerstone of all the major changes that occurred in the last Presidential election.

was not immune from the effects of regionalism: Introduction many voters voted on the basis of their regional

This paper analyzes the 16th Presidential elec- ties with the candidates or the parties. There is tion of Korea, which took place in December little doubt, however, that its effects were

2002. Taking into account the fact that its readers diminished. Moreover, there is a good reason to

are mostly foreign scholars, the paper takes a gen- suggest that the nature of regionalism may be go-

eralist approach, discussing major characteristics ing through some fundamental changes. of the election from a broad perspective, instead Another major characteristic of the last Presi- of investigating deeply into one specific topic. dential election is the widening gap between gen- The result is a comprehensive review, covering a erations in terms of their voting behavior. The wide range of issues and topics that have evolved voting pattern of younger generations (referring from the election. to those voters in their twenties and thirties) has The major characteristics of the 16th Presiden- been always different from that of older ones, but tial election of Korea can be summarized as the the difference stood out in the last election, thus three following points. One is the weakening of contributing to the victory of No Mu-hyun. The regional voting, thus opening up the possibility of generational effects are significant in that they re- changes in Korean regionalism. As well docu- flect the changing values of Korean voters (espe- mented, regionalism has been one of the most cially of young voters) in recent years.

dominant factors in the Korean elections since The third and final feature is the change in the

the late 1980s. The 16th Presidential election mode of election campaigning. Many observers

選挙研究20号2005年 An Analysis of the 16th Presidential Election in Korea 87

have called the last Presidential election an democracy. "Internet Election ," suggesting that Internet The Concept of Regionalism and Its emerged as an important instrument for cam- Regional Varieties paigning, complementing (if not totally replacing) the more traditional forms of media such as news- 1. Defining Regionalism papers, TV, a radio. Closely related to the increas- Before we discuss the weakening of regional- ing importance of internet was the important role ism in the 16th Presidential election, we need to of voluntary associations such as "No-Sa-Mo" in clarify what we mean by regionalism. The term, the election campaigning. One could argue that regionalism, has been employed in many different these candidate-oriented associations have been ways, not only by journalists but also by as effective as political parties in garnering politi- scholars.(1) For example, it can refer to regional cal support, especially from young voters, conflict, regionalistic feeling, regional voting, and through the use of internet and other electronic regionally-based party alignment. It is granted devices. that this diverse usage of the term is inevitable It is important to note that the above three due to different perspectives of those who use points are closely related to one another. The the term, but the failure to define its meaning pre- weakening of regionalism is partly a reflection of cisely could be a source of miscommunication and the young voters' changing values and voting misunderstanding. pattern. The change in the mode of election cam- The term, regionalism, should be distinguished paigning is also related to the changing values of on the following three dimensions. (refer to Table young voters, and their willingness to participate 1) One is the dimension of macro-micro. Here the actively in the electoral process. In this sense, it question is whether the term refers to individual can be said that the young voters' changing val- level phenomena, such as regionalistic feeling ues are the cornerstone of all the major changes and regional voting, or macro level phenomena, that occurred in the last Presidential election. such as regional conflict and regionally-based In this paper, we will examine all of the three party alignment. Another dimension to be added characteristics. Instead of going over them sepa- when the term is used at the micro level is rately one by one, however, we will take a more whether it refers to behavior or attitude. Region- coherent approach, and try to relate them within alistic feeling would denote individuals' attitude, a large framework. The first characteristic, the while regional voting would be individuals' weakening of regionalism, will be the main focus behavior. The final dimension is whether the of analysis throughout the paper. The second term refers to social phenomena, or political characteristic, the generational difference, will be phenomena. Regionalistic feeling and regional discussed mainly in relation to its effects on the conflict are basically social phenomena, while re- weakening of regionalism, and its close associa- gional voting and regionally-based party align- tion with changing values of young voters. The ment clearly political phenomena. There is little third characteristic, the changing mode of elec- doubt that the two are closely related, but we tion campaigning, will be touched upon when we need to conceptually distinguish the two. discuss the changing values of Korean voters and It is straightforward that among these diverse their implications for the future of Korean meanings, the most relevant for this study are 88

Table 1 Diverse Meanings of Regionalism It is necessary to explain the three

different criteria in more details. The

first criterion, the region of candidates'

origin, is the oldest one, and has been

used primarily in the past Presidential elections. In the Presidential elections those with clear political connotations: regional held in 1963, 1967, and 1971, each candidate re- voting and regionally-based party alignment, in ceived more votes from the region of one's origin particular. The more difficult question is which of than from other regions. The regional voting in the two should be the focus of our study. There is those years, however, was not only confined to little doubt that the two are closely related to Youngnam and Honam, but also weak in its each other, but it is quite controversial how they intensity. It could be interpreted as an innocent are related. Those who emphasize the micro expression of regional affection. It was in the level would argue that regionally-based party 1987 Presidential election that this criterion be- alignment is simply an aggregation of regional gan to exert significant effects on voters' voting voting on the part of individual voters. Those decision. who emphasize the macro level would say that The second criterion, the region of party lead- the macro phenomenon is more than the sum of ers' origin, has been used primarily in National micro behavior. Assembly elections and local elections, where the

Without getting into this ontological debate be- candidates are likely to be from the same regions. tween reductionists and wholists, it suffices to This new criterion first emerged in the 13th Na- say that this study takes the approach of methodo- tional Assembly election of 1988, and has been logical individualism. The macro level phenome- employed by voters consistently in the subse- na, regionally-based party alignment in particular, quent National Assembly and local elections. may be more significant politically, but the study This extension of regional voting from the region is based on the presumption that the understand- of candidates' origin to that of party leaders' ori- ing of macro phenomena is only possible when gin is politically significant in that regional voting we analyze them at the micro level. In other has moved beyond the support for particular po- words, any explanation of macro phenomena with- litical leaders, and developed into the support for out micro foundation would be meaningless. With the parties they are leading. For this reason, this approach, the study takes regional voting as many scholars argue that the regionally-based the most basic target of analysis. party alignment was first formed in the late Now that we have decided to focus on the indi- 1980s. vidual level phenomena of regional voting, how The third criterion of regional voting, the re- do we define it? In the context of Korean politics, gion of parties' symbolic representation, is the lat- regional voting can be defined as "voters' casting est and the most comprehensive one. In the 15th of their votes by considering 1) which region can- Presidential election of 1997, many Youngnam didates are from, 2) which region the leaders of voters gave their support to the Grand National candidates' parties are from, or 3) which region Party, even though its candidate and leader, Lee candidates' parties symbolically represent. Hoi-Chang, was not from the region. Since then, An Analysis of the 16th Presidential Election in Korea 89 the same continued to happen in the 16th National Since the late 80s, it began to develop into explo-

Assembly of 2000, the local election of 2001, and sive support for Mr. Kim and the parties led by in the Presidential election of 2002. The fact that him in any types of elections. As Kim Dae-Jung Youngnam voters vote for the party supposed to has been active politically for so many years, the represent their region, regardless of whether the regionalism in Honam has been able to form very candidates and party leaders are from the region strong emotional ties between the leader and vot- or not, suggests that Korean regionalism is now ers, thus resulting in the most intense regional firmly established. It must be noted, however, voting of the three. that this development or extension of regional The future of Honam regionalism is uncertain, voting also has the effect of weakening its influ- however. Due to its excessive dependence on the ence on voters, as it is no longer based on voters' particular political figure, it still remains personal emotional attachment to individual political in nature, lacking the process of consolidation as leaders. in the case of Youngnam regionalism. It is doubt- From the above discussion on the definition of ful, therefore, whether Honam regionalism can regional voting, it is evident that regional voting maintain its intensity even after the political re- can take different forms, depending on the time tirement of Kim Dae-jung. In the 16th election, periods, the types of elections, and particular Honam voters did support No Mu-hyun, the can- regions. Over time, the criteria of regional voting didate of the Democratic Party, but as will be dis- has gradually expanded from the region of candi- cussed later, it did not signify the consolidation of dates' origin to the region of party leaders' origin, Honam regionalism. and most recently to the region of parties' sym- Youngnam regionalism was also formed at first bolic representation. Voters also use different cri- on the basis of political leaders from this region. teria in different types of elections. The first Unlike Honam regionalism, there were several of criterion becomes important in Presidential elec- them. Before the 80s, it was expressed as rela- tions, while the second one gets voters' attention tively high support for Park Chung-hee in the in National Assembly and local elections. Finally, Presidential elections. Since the late 80s Roh Tae- and most importantly, regional voting may de- woo and Kim Young-sam emerged as new leaders velop into different forms in different regions, as of the region, and just like in Honam, Youngnam evidenced in the use of the third criterion by voters began to give full support not only to Youngnam voters. In the next, we briefly review these political leaders, but also to the parties led regionalism in the three different regions of by them. At that time, Youngnam regionalism was Honam, Youngnam, and Chungchung. split into two (Gyungbuk supporting Roh, and Gyungnam supporting Kim), but after "the merge

2. A Brief Review of Regionalism in Three of the three parties," and consequently the unit-

Different Regions ing of the two leaders, they became also united as Honam regionalism was formed on the basis of one. a particular political leader from this region, Kim The major characteristic of Youngnam regional- Dae-jung. Before the 80s, it was expressed inno- ism is that it is still being maintained even after cently as Honam voters' relatively high support the leaders from the region are retired. From for the Presidential candidate, Kim Dae-jung. 1997 till 2002, the leader of the Grand National 90

Party was Lee Hoi-chang, who was not from the Presidential election, Kim Jong-pil's influence region. Nevertheless, Youngnam voters gave one- was minimal, as he did not form coalition with sided support not only to Mr. Lee in both the 15th any candidate and remained neutral. No Mu-hyun and 16th Presidential elections, but also to the seized this opportunity and announced "the trans- party in the 16th National Assembly election of fer of Capital City to Chungchung" as a campaign 2000. The fact that Youngnam voters maintained promise. This strategy turned out be a great suc- their support to the Grand National Party even cess, as No Mu-hyun (a non-native of Chung- when the party leaders were not from the region chung) was able to receive much more votes than suggests that Youngnam regionalism has been his rival, Lee Hoi-chang (a native of Chungchung) somewhat consolidated. The consolidation is in from Chungchung voters. More importantly, how- no way complete, however. Youngnam regional- ever, it precipitated the emergence of a new form ism exhibited some signs of weakening in the 16th of regionalism in this region, which is a topic to Presidential election, as will be discussed later. be discussed later in more detail. Chungchung regionalism started as a response The Weakening and Changes of to Youngnam and Honam regionalism. Kim Jong- Regionalism pil, a political leader from this region, saw the sudden strengthening of regionalism in both 1. The Weakening of Regionalism Youngnam and Honam in the late 80s, and stimu- In the aggregate, it is difficult to notice the lated Chungchung regionalism as a means of weakening of regionalism in the election. In both building the regional base for his political Youngnam and Honam regions, the voting pat- support. Following the pattern in Youngnam and terns of the past persisted. As can be seen in Ta- Honam, many Chungchung voters began to give ble 2, No Mu-hyun, the candidate of Democratic their support to Kim Jong-pil and the United Lib- Party, received a majority of votes from Honam eral Democrats, the party led by him. In the voters, while Lee Hoi-chang, the candidate of Presidential elections for which Kim Jong-pil did Grand National Party, received a majority of votes not run, they gave support to the candidates who from Youngnam voters. formed coalition with him (Kim Young-sam in the If one lowers the level of analysis and analyzes 14th, and Kim Dae-jung in the 15th). Meanwhile, individual voters' behavior for each region, how- in the National Assembly and local elections, ever, there are some noticeable signs of the weak- Chungchung voters supported the United Liberal ening or changing of regionalism. To begin with Democrats. Honam voters, the support they showed to No From the start, Chungchung regionalism was Mu-hyun was not as intense as their support for the weakest of the three. As Kim Jong-pil's politi- Kim Dae-jung in the 15th Presidential election. In cal influence has waned in recent years, it has fact, before the unification of the two candidates, been further weakened. For instance, in the 16th No Mu-hyun and Jung Mong-jun, Honam voters' National Assembly election of 2000, Chungchung support was split almost equally between them. voters' support for the United Liberal Democrats According to Table 3, Honam voters' support lev- was not as strong as in the 1996 election, thus re- els for the two candidates fluctuated considerably sulting in a huge reduction of the number of Na- from July to October 2002. It was only after the tional Assemblymen from that party. In the 16th unification of the two candidates on November An Analysis of the 16th Presidential Election in Korea 91

Table 2 Regional Distribution of Support for Major Candidates in the National Party, a long- 15th and 16th Presidential Elections (%) time political nemesis of Kim Dae-jung. In this sense, it would be wrong to suggest that the regionalism in Honam has been consolidated in the election as Youngnam regionalism had been in the 15th

Data: The National Election Commission Presidential election. It is true that Honam re- Table 3 Support for Major Candidates by Region before the No-Jung gionalism was maintained Unification (%) to some extent even without Kim Dae-jung, but as noted above, Kim's influence was still strong in the process and Honam voters' support for No Mu-hyun was not Data: Daehan Daily Newspaper (October 7th,2002) as intense as that for Kim Dae-jung in the 24th that they overwhelmingly supported No Mu- past. It would be safer, therefore, to suggest that hyun. In this sense, the great success of No Mu- Honam regionalism was somewhat weakened due hyun in Honam is attributable not so much to to the absence of Kim Dae-jung and that it is still Honam voters' affinity to him, as to their dislike in the process of searching for a new basis that for his opponent, Lee Hoi-chang. could replace the old highly personalized basis. This lukewarm support for No Mu-hyun among The regionalism in Youngnam also went Honam voters is understandable given the charac- through some changes in the 16th Presidential teristics of Honam regionalism. The regionalism election. Although the level of Youngnam voters' in Honam has been highly dependent upon one support for Lee Hoi-chang increased from the particular political leader, Kim Dae-jung. Al- 15th Presidential election, it does not mean the though he was still the symbolic leader of the strengthening of Youngnam regionalism. It is Democratic Party at the time, Mr. Kim was not merely an artifact of the decrease of the number running for the Presidency and actually was near- serious candidates from three to two. In fact, the ing his political retirement. This fact must have level of Youngnam voters' support for No Mu- shaken the traditional basis for Honam hyun was also higher than that for Kim Dae-jung regionalism. Honam voters did embrace No Mu- in 1997. If one compares the net increases of sup- hyun eventually, but only after he became the port for the two parties, it is evident that the sole alternative to Lee Hoi-chang of the Grand Democratic Party gained much more than the 92

Table 4 Vote Choice by Youngnam Voters by Age Groups (%) the older ones are likely to be conservatives. This also seems to be the case for Korean voters, and for Youngnam voters in particular.(2) Accord-

Data: Kang (2003), Originally from the survey data by Media Research ing to Kang (2003), younger voters are more likely to be progressive than older Grand National Party did. (refer to Table 2) One ones not only in terms of self-evaluation of their could argue, therefore, that Youngnam regional- ideological orientation but also in their opinion to- ism was somewhat weakened. ward national security and foreign policy matters.

A more subtle yet important change in Young- This close connection between generation and nam regionalism can be detected in the pattern of ideology suggests that the generational differ- support for the two candidates. The importance ence is not a fluke, but a factor full of political of generational difference in this election has meanings and implications. More importantly for been already noted, and this variable of genera- our purpose, it means that Youngnam voters now tion also played a key role in Youngnam voters' have another meaningful basis for their voting de- voting decision. According to Table 4, the cision, besides regionalism. One could argue, younger Youngnam voters were much more therefore, that Youngnam regionalism might be likely to support No Mu-hyun, while the older undergoing some "internal" erosion at the indi- ones were much more likely to support Lee Hoi- vidual level, despite its "external" persistence at chang. This suggests that despite the overall sup- the macro level. (Kang 2003) port for Lee Hoi-chang by Youngnam voters, there was an important generational difference in 2. The Possibility of a New Form of their voting behavior. Regionalism This is a new development in Youngnam As a result of the 16th Presidential election, the regionalism. In the past, regionalism was the sole most significant change occurred in Chungchung important criteria for Youngnam voters' voting regionalism. As mentioned above, Chungchung decision. Of course, there were always some vot- regionalism was the weakest of the three from ers who did not vote for the Youngnam party (the the start, and was experiencing a further weaken- New Korea Party and the Grand National Party), ing even before the 16th Presidential election. but there was no other meaningful factor dividing The erosion of Chungchung regionalism was evi- regional voters and non-regional voters. In other denced in the 16th National Assembly election of words, regional and non-regional voters were not 2000. As can be documented in Table 5, Chung- different in any significant way. For the first time, chung voters'(3) support level for the United Lib- there has emerged in this election a factor other eral Democrats (18.0%) was not as high as that than regionalism that could significantly influence for the Grand National Party (26.6%) or for the Youngnam voters. Democratic Party. (32.4%)

It is important to note here that this genera- The weakening of Chungchung regionalism has tional difference is also closely related to the ideo- been intensified in the 16th Presidential election. logical difference. In general, the younger voters According to Table 6, the support level for the are more likely to be liberal (progressive), while United Liberal Democrats was only 5.1%, lagging An Analysis of the 16th Presidential Election in Korea 93

Table 5 Party Support in the 16th National Assembly Election of 2000 by Region (%)

Data: Post-election Survey (2000) by Korean Association of Election Studies

Table 6 Party Preferred in the 16th Presidential Election of 2002 by Region (%)

Data: Post-election Survey (2002) by Korean Association of Election Studies Note: Those respondents with no party preference were excluded from the analysis. far behind the number for the Grand National utilitarian nature. Whereas Honam and Youngnam Party (35.0%) and that for the Democratic Party voters have been preoccupied with the grand goal (48.7%). The decrease of support for the United of acquiring the political power at the national lev- Liberal Democrats was expected, as the party el, Chungchung voters have been more con- had no Presidential candidate. Even taking this cerned with the more humble and pragmatic goal factor into account, the huge decrease (from of securing specific benefits for the region. How 18.0% to 5.1%) in support for the party was much concerned are Chungchung voters with the striking. region's development and benefits? According to While the traditional regionalism was greatly one survey conducted exclusively for Chung- eroding, a new form of regionalism was develop- chung voters during the election campaign, ing in the region. The traditional regionalism was 21.4% of the respondents chose "regional devel- based on the personal and emotional ties be- opment" as the most important factor for their tween Chungchung voters and the leader from voting decision. (Kim 2003) This number should this region, Kim Jong-pil, in particular. The newly not be taken at the face value, however. Consider- emerging regionalism, however, was based on ing the negative connotations of regionalism in policies and the specific benefits they could bring the context of Korean politics, it is highly likely to Chungchung voters. In other words, Chung- that many respondents chose to give socially de- chung voters have begun to vote for the candi- sirable responses such as policies, rather than ex- date and the party that are expected to bring pressing their true concern with the more them the most benefits, regardless of whether or specific benefits for the region. not the candidate or the party leaders are from The importance of regional development to the region. In that sense, it can be termed a utili- Chungchung voters may be confirmed in a more tarian or pragmatic form of regionalism.(4) indirect way. A cross-tabulation reported in Table In fact, Chungchung voters are known for their 7 shows that the politician Chungchung voters 94

Table 7 A Cross-tabulation of the Politician (considered to be) Best Suited for the Regional Development and the Candidate Supported

Data: A survey conducted exclusively for Chungchung Voters during the Campaign by the Korean Social Science Data Center (2002)

consider to be the most appropriate for the re- fits from the regional development. Sensing this gional development highly coincides with the can- new development in Chungchung, No Mu-hyun didate they support. Looking at those who chose came up with a campaign strategy that could capi-

Lee Hoi-chang as the most appropriate person talize on it. The strategy turned out to be a great for the development of Chungchung region, 83% success, as he was able to win the election

of them also supported him as the Presidential thanks to great support from Chungchung voters.

candidate of their choice. The equivalent num- The strategy also had the effect of precipitating

bers for No Mu-hyun and Jung Mong-jun were the emergence of a new form of regionalism in

also high, 78.6% and 89.4%, respectively. The Chungchung, which should be distinguished from

high correlation for all the three candidates sug- the traditional form of regionalism. gests that Chungchung voters did consider the re- Generational Difference, Changing Values, gional development as an important factor when and New Opinion Leaders they made their voting decisions.

One point to be emphasized is that the survey Another major characteristic of the 16th Presi- utilized above was conducted before No Mu-hyun dential election noted at the outset was the wid- announced "the transfer of Capital City to Chung- ening gap between generations in terms of their

chung area" as his campaign promise. It means voting behavior. (Cho 2003) According to most that Chungchung voters have been already very post-election surveys, the pattern of support for much concerned with economic benefits from the the two candidates correlated very highly with

regional development, even before No Mu-hyun the variable of generation (or age, to use a more

promised them the specific benefits of the Capital objective term). Table 8 reports the results of one transfer. In that sense, it would be wrong to argue exit poll. The effects of generations on vote

that No Mu-hyun's peculiar campaign strategy choice were evident, as those voters in the 20s

brought about a new form of regionalism in and 30s overwhelmingly supported No Mu-hyun,

Chungchung. while those who were 50 or older gave more A more valid interpretation would be as votes to Lee Hoi-chang. The difference of vote follows. With the weakening of the traditional percentages between the two candidates for the form of regionalism, Chungchung voters were al- age group of 20-29 was 30.4% point, followed by

ready very much concerned with economic bene- the difference of 25.4% point for the group of 30- An Analysis of the 16th Presidential Election in Korea 95

Table 8 Vote Choice by Age Groups in the 16th young voters are significantly different from Presidential Election (%) those of old ones.(5) Raised under a far more favor- able and affluent economic and social environ- ment, the young generation voters have internalized such values that Inglehart (1990; 1997) calls "post-materialism" or "post-modern- Data: Cho (2003), Originally from the exit poll by Media Research ism," as opposed to the highly materialistic val- (2002) ues possessed by the old generation.

39, and 18.5% point for the group of 50 and It is these new values that allow some young

higher. Interestingly, the votes of the age group of voters to participate voluntarily and actively in 40-49 were split almost equally between the two the political process. These young people are not candidates. content with the simple act of voting. Charged Many analysts attributed the victory of No Mu- with great enthusiasm and a high level of political hyun to the overwhelming support he was able to efficacy, they are engaged in various forms of po- garner from young voters. Besides its immediate litical participation. They play an instrumental effects on the electoral outcome, however, the role in setting political agenda by fully utilizing generational difference has far more important internet and other electronic devices, as evi- implications for the future of Korean politics. For denced in a series of candle-light demonstrations, one thing, this generational difference at the indi- organized by them, to protest the accidental kill- vidual level voting behavior was one of the main ing of middle school girls by U. S. armed forces in reasons for the weakening of regionalism, as al- Korea. They also form voluntary political organi- ready suggested in the discussion of Youngnam zations, such as "No-Sa-Mo" (A Meeting of Peo- regionalism. ple Who Love No Mu-hyun), and actively Moreover, it should be emphasized that this participate in the campaign process. The result is

generational difference in voting behavior is a significant change in the mode of electoral closely related to the generational gap in ideologi- campaigning.

cal orientations. As noted before, young voters This is not to say that most young people act are more likely to be progressive, while old ones this way. In fact, a majority of young voters re- are likely to be conservative. It means that ideol- main uninterested in politics, as evidenced in

ogy could develop into an important political very low turnout rates for those voters in the

cleavage in the Korean politics, eventually replac- twenties and thirties. It is a small minority of ing the old cleavage of regionalism. That would young voters who actively and voluntarily partici- be a great step forward for Korean democracy in pate in the political process, but they have the sense that the old cleavage of regionalism, emerged as the "new opinion leaders," as op- void of policy implications, could be replaced by posed to the more traditional opinion leaders the new cleavage of ideology, full of policy such as mass media and scholars. Modern democ- implications. racy is basically mass politics, but it is always the Most fundamentally, the generational gap in small minority that leads the mass. Despite being voting behavior reflects the changing values of a minority, their impacts on the political process

Korean young voters. The political values of are far-reaching, indeed. 96

Discussion: The Future of Korean parties, which in turn implies the revitalization of Democracy party politics. As noted in the introduction, this paper rests The results of the 17th National Assembly elec- upon the assumption that the changing values of tion of 2004 also confirm the trend of changes.

Korean voters lie at the center of all the changes Regionalism has been further weakened, and ide- that we are now witnessing in the Korean elec- ology has become even more important, as evi- toral politics. In the same vein, they will have sig- denced in the great success of the Democratic nificant effects on the future of Korean democracy. Labor Party. The generational difference in vot-

One of the biggest obstacles to the develop- ing behavior has continued to stand out, and the ment of Korean democracy has been the underde- role of new opinion leaders has been also velopment of political parties. In fact, one could important.(6) Again, the changing values of young argue convincingly that the democratization proc- voters have been at the heart of all these changes. ess of the late 80s had an unintended effect of re- Of course, the value changes are not all good. tarding the development of Korean political The young people are rightfully criticized for parties. (Kim B. K. 1998) Before the 80s, Korean their impulsiveness (as opposed to deliberation) political parties competed with some meaningful and heavy dependence on sense or sensational- policy connotations, as there was a clear issue ism (as opposed to reason or reasoning). On the cleavage of "economic growth versus whole, and in the long term, however, the democratization." With that cleavage no longer changes in Korean political culture that they rep- valid due to the process of democratization, Ko- resent are likely to have positive effects on the rean parties resorted to regionalism as a new ba- Korean political process, which would in turn con- sis for their political support. The problem with tribute to the development and consolidation of this new cleavage, however, was that it had no Korean democracy. meaningful policy implications. As a result, parties competed not on the basis of policies and is- (1) For various usage of the term by different sues, but mainly on the basis of regionalistic scholars, refer to Kang (2000; 2003), Kim and feeling. Lee (1997), Kim (2003), Cho (2000), Lee K. Y The 16th Presidential election signaled that it (1998), and Lee N. Y (1998) (2) It must be noted that the terms such as lib- could be changing. The changing values of young eral (progressive) and conservative could have voters, and the emergence of new opinion lead- different connotations in different countries. In ers in particular, have brought about significant Korea, the ideological differences between pro- changes in the Korean political process. They gressive and conservative are not so much cen- tered on the distribution of economic values have not only changed the mode of electoral cam- (as in the West) as on the attitude toward paigning, but more importantly have widened the North Korea and political, social reforms in spectrum of political competition between politi- general. cal parties by allowing ideology to become an im- (3) Here Chungchung voters (and Youngnam and Honam voters, for that matter) are defined portant political factor other than regionalism. not on the basis of residence, but rather on the The weakening of regionalism, coupled with the basis of birth place. Scholars have chosen to increasing importance of ideology, opens the door employ one of the two criteria in accordance for the birth of new, more policy-oriented political with their research purposes. In general, how- An Analysis of the 16th Presidential Election in Korea 97

ever, the choice does not affect the results of held in Seoul, Korea, on Feb 6, 2003. (in Kore- analysis in a significant way. an) (4) One could argue that even the traditional Kim, Byung-Kook. 1998. "Korea's Crisis of form of regionalism is utilitarian in nature, as Success." In Larry Diamond and Marc F. Platt- its ultimate goal is some kind of material ner (eds.), Democracy in East Asia. Baltimore, benefits. The interpretation of regional voting Maryland: The Johns Hopkins University as rational act (Cho 2000) rests upon this Press. argument. It must be emphasized, however, Kim, Chong-Lim and Nam-Young Lee. 1997. that the material benefits expected from the "How Do Voters Choose Candidates?" Journal traditional regionalism are diffuse and abstract, of Legislative Studies 3, 1. (in Korean) whereas the new form of regionalism is based Kim, Wook. 2003. "Searching for a New Direction on specific benefits clearly articulated in spe- for the Study of Regionalism in Korea." Journal cific policies. of World Politics Vol. 2, No. 2. (in Korean) (5) Of course, the ideological difference noted Kim, Wook. 2004. "The Regional Differences of above is one form of value differences between Korean Regionalism and the Prospect of Fu- generations, but here we are concerned with ture Changes." The 21St Century Political Sci- more fundamental political values. ence Review Vol. 14, No. 1. (in Korean) (6) This time, they played a key role in organiz- Lee, Kap-Yun. 1998. Korean Elections and ing a series of candle-light demonstrations to Regionalism. Seoul: Orum. (in Korean) protest the passing by the National Assembly Lee, Nam-Young. 1998. "Voters' Regionalistic of an Impeachment Motion for President No Orientations and Voting" In Election in Korea Mu-hyun. Most analysts believe that these 2, Seoul: Purungil. (in Korean) events had significant effects on the electoral Sniderman, Paul M., Richard A. Brody, and Philip outcome. E. Tetlock. 1991. Reasoning and Choice: Explo- rations in Political Psychology. Cambridge: Cam- Reference bridge University Press. Cho, Jung-Bin. 2003. "The 16th Presidential Elec- tion and Generations." A paper presented at Korean Political Science Association Confer- ence on 'Evaluation of the 2002 Presidential Election and the Next Administration's Tasks,' held in Seoul, Korea, on Feb 6, 2003. (in Kore- an) Cho, Ki-Suk. 2000. Regionally-basedElections and Rational Voters.Seoul: Nanam. (in Korean) Inglehart, Ronald. 1990. Culture Shift in Ad- vanced Industrial Society.New Jersey: Prince- ton University Press. Inglehart, Ronald. 1997. Modernization and Postmodernization. New Jersey: Princeton Uni- versity Press. Kang, Won-Tack. 2000. "Regional Voting and Ra- tional Choice: A Critical Review" Korean Politi- cal Science Review 34, 2. (in Korean) Kang, Won-Tack. 2003. "The 2002 Presidential Election and Regionalism." A paper presented at Korean Political Science Association Confer- ence on 'Evaluation of the 2002 Presidential Election and the Next Administration's Tasks,' 225

An Analysis of the 16th Presidential Elec- tion in Korea: Regionalism, Generational Effects, and Changing Values

Wook KIM

The major characteristics of the 16th Presidential election of Korea can be summarized as the three points. One is the weakening of regional voting, thus opening up the possibility of changes in Korean regionalism. Another characteristic is the widening gap between generations in terms of their voting behavior and political values. The third is the change in the mode of election campaigning, as the Internet emerged as an important instrument for campaigning. The three points are closely related to one another. The weakening of regionalism is partly a reflection of young voters' changing values and voting pattern. The change in the mode of election campaigning is also related to young voters' changing values, and their willingness to participate actively in the electoral process. In this sense, one can argue that young voters' changing values are the cornerstone of all the major changes that occurred in the last Presidential election.