&J - 73 - NJ
RESTRICTED Report No. TO-437a
Public Disclosure Authorized This report was prepared for use within the Bank and its affiliated organizations. They do not accept responsibility for its accuracy or completeness. The report may not be published nor may it be quoted as representing their views.
INTERNATIONAL BANK FOR RECONSTRUCTION AND DEVELOPMENT INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATION Public Disclosure Authorized
APPRAISAL OF
A ROAD PROJECT
NORTHERN NIGERIA Public Disclosure Authorized
December 15, 1964 Public Disclosure Authorized
Department of Technical Operations CURRENCY EQUIVALENT
U.S. $2.80 = N. E1 NORTHERN NIGERIA - ROAD PROJECT
Table of Contents Page
SUMMARY i
I. INTRODUCTION 1
II. BACKGROUND 1
A. General 1 B. Transport 2 General 2 Water Transport 3 Railways 3 Road Transport 3 C. The Road System h Ministry of W4orks 5 Design Standards and Contract Forms 6 Road Maintenance 6 Road Construction in the Past 7
III. THE PROJECT 8
A. Description 8 B. Cost of the Project 9 C. Disbursement Schedule and Financing of Local Project 10 D. Execution of the Project 11
IV. ECONOMI-C JUSTIFICATION 12
A. General 12 B. Nlark-ting Policies 12 C. Benefits 13 D. Conclusions 15
V. CONCLUSIONS AND RECCMMENDATIONS 17
ANNEX I
Economic Justification for Specific Sections of the Project
Tables
1. Volume=of imports and exports of Nigeria 1956-1963 handled at Lagos and Port Harcourt 2. Number of registered motor vehicles in Nigeria, 1957-61 Table of Contents
(Cont'd.)
3. Design Standards 4. Cost Estimate 5. Estimated operating cost for a 5-6 ton diesel truck under different road conditions
MAP
Nigeria - Roads NORTHERN NIGERIA - ROAD PROJECT
SUnARY
i. The Government of Northern Nigeria through the Federal Govern- ment in Lagos has approached the International Development Association for a Credit of USS15.5 million equivalent to finance a road project consist- ing of:
,) construction of 224 miles of new roads within the Region and improvement of about 50 miles of feeder roads;
b) consultantst services for supervising the construction of the roads under (a) and
c) procurement of soil laboratory equipment, and installations and equipment for control of vehicle loads. ii. Total cost of the project has been estimated at L8.45 million or US$23.7 million equivalent, of which IDA would finance US$15.5 million, or 66 per cent of total cost, representing approximately the foreign exchange component. iii. Road transport in the Northern Region has grown considerably during recent years, and will become increasingly important as existing roads are improved and new roads built. iv. Two of the three roads included in the project would serve to some extent as feeder roads to the railway extension to Maiduguri which has now been completed and was financed in part by the Bank Loan 193-UN1I. The third road provides an important road link with the neighboring Republic of Niger and would link up with a road being financed by an IDA Credit to that country. All three roads have been finally surveyed and designed by the Ministry and reviewed by a consulting firm. v. The Road Division of the Ministry of Works in Kaduna is in charge of road construction and maintenance. Because of a shortage of personnel, consultants would be engaged for the supervision of the work in the field. The contracts for the workl would be awarded on the basis of international competitive bidding on unit prices quoted by the con;-} tractors. vi. Funds from the Credit would be made available for the procure- ment of soil laboratory equipment, and installations and equipment for control of vehicles. vii. The benefits of the new roads to the development of agriculture, fisheries and cattle raising, together with benefits from road-users' savings would justify the construction of the three roads. viii. The Project provides a suitable basis for an IDA Credit of US'l5.5 million equivalent on the usual terms. I. INTRODUCTION
1. The Government of Northern Nigeria, through the Federal Govern- ment in Lagos, has approached the Bank for an IDA Credit of US$15.5 million equivalent to assist in financing the foreign exchange cost of a road project which consists of a) the construction of 224 miles of new roads and improvement of about 50 miles of feeder roads, b) the use of consultants' services for supervision in the field and c) the procurement of soil laboratory equipment, installations and equipment for the control of vehicle loads.
2. In view of the need to continuouLy develop and improve its road network, and in accordance with the findings of feasibility study carried out in 1963 by consultants under a Bank Technical Assistance grant, the Government of Northern Nigeria considers it necessary to undertake quickly the survey and design of about 300 miles of higher priority roads for future construction or improvement. It is possible that the U. N. Special Fund may be prepared to make a grant for such survey and design work. If not, the Bank would consider providing technical assistance.
3. This report is based on information obtained by a Bank Mission which visited Nigeria in October 1963 and the road feasibility study which was undertaken in the Northern Region in 1963 by the consulting firm of Scott & Wilson, Kirkpatrick and Partners, in cooperation with Economist Intelligence Unit.
II. BACKGROUND
A. General
4. Northern Nigeria, which is the largest of the four Regions that make up the Federal Republic of Nigeria, covers 282,000 square miles, or 80 per cent of the country's area. It has about one half of the popula- tion of Nigeria which, in a census carried out in 1963, was recorded at 56 million people.
5. The Regionts main economic activities are agriculture and the nomadic grazing of livestock. Although manufacturing is in an early stage of development generally significant centers exist at Kano and Kaduna. Tin is exported from the area around Jos. The far north of the Region is relatively dry savannah land on which population densities are low, with the exception of Kano Province. Further south in the so-called "Mliddle Belt" which borders the Niger and Benue Rivers, population is sparse. This zone is relatively unproductive, large areas being plagued by the tsetse fly. Annual rainfall varies from an average 32 inches in the extreme north to 54 inches further south. In 1960 GiNP per capita in Nigeria as a whole was estimated at about US$8h. Corresponding figures for later years have been difficult to assess; they may have ranged be- tween US$80 and US$90, based on 1957 prices. Average per capita GNP in Northern Nigeria would have been even lower than these figures. -2-
B. Transport
General
6. Transportation in Nigeria has been dealt with at length generally in several Bank Reports g/. Since this report deals with road construction in Northern Nigeria it will be limited mainly to a review of the transport situation in this particular Region. Because of the importance of interregional traffic, however, it is necessary to touch upon the transport situation in Nigeria as a whole.
7. Transportation demands in the Northern Region derive mainly from the agricultural sector. The main export crops of groundnuts and ginned cotton seed and live cattle are moved in large volumes to the ports of Lagos and Port Harcourt. Significant but unmeasured volumes of a variety of local foodstuffs are transported from Northern Nigeria to the southern Regions. In return, imports and locally manufactured goods move from the south into the Northern Region, together with local food- stuffs such as kola nuts and citrus fruits which are not grown in Northern DNigeria. The main long distance transport movements, therefore, tend to be in a north-south direction.
8. Within 'the Northern Region itself the heaviest traffic move- ments are between such large population centers as Kano, Kaduna, Bauchi, Jos and Maidugeri and the main food producing areas. These towns play an important role in collecting foodstuffs - both for consumption and transit - and distributing imported goods over the areas to the east. In the provinces of Bornu and Bauchi movements are generally on an east- west axis.
9. There are no statistics comparable to those of the railway available as to the movement of freight by road transport. A limited indication of the growth of goods transport in Nigeria between 1956 and 1963, however, can be given on the basis of imports and exports via the ports. Table 1 shows that during this period the volume of goods handled at Nligeria's major ports Lagos and Port Harcourt increased at a rate of 4? per cent per annum. The railways' performance in ton-miles of freight over the same period increased at a rate of 3.3 per cent per annum. The amount of passenger-miles increased at an equal rate. Road traffic increased 11.5 per cent per annum in this period, as judged by total fuel consumption figures. The volume of cargo handled via river crafts re- mained the same. Air transport plays a negligible role in freight move- ments.
j See TO-160a dated April 18, 1958; EA-127a dated November 14, 1961; AF-4 dated December 31, 1962. -3-
Water Transport
10. Navigability on the Niger and Benue Rivers within Northern Nigeria varies greatly. The Niger is navigable all year round only to Onitsha, some 200 miles from the coast.
Railways
11. Nigeria's topographical conditions and economic structure are favorable for railway operation except along the eastern border of the country. Distances between the production and consumption areas and the ports are generally long and freight volumes are considerable. This is especially true for movements between the Northern Region and the south. For example, groundnuts - the railways' principal freight - are moved to the ports in volumes of around 550,000 tons each year over distances up to 700 miles. Although on a cost basis long haul transportation is cheaper by rail than by road, road transport has increased its share in the total freight, transport over the past 6 to 8 years for a number of reasons.
12. The decrease in the railways' relative traffic share can to a large extent be explained by the fact that earlier much of the railways' traffic was made up of products moving over relatively short distances between the Western and Eastern Regions. As the road system improved this traffic was more suitable to road transport. Produce from the Northern Region, howJever, has been transported in larger volumes by truck: in 1962 approximately 56,000 tons of groundnuts shipped via Lagos arrived by road compared with 26,000 in the previous year partly because the railway was unable to move all the traffic offered.
Road Transport
13. Between 1957 to 1961 the number of motor vehicles registered in Nigeria increased from 39,500 to 72,000, an annual growth rate of 16 per cent. (See Table 2). The number of motor vehicles registered in Northern Nigeria in 1961 was about 16,500 or 23 per cent of the total. The rate of growth for this Region was 9 per cent. Due to interregional traffic the number of vehicles registered in a Region is not necessarily a clear indication of the traffic volume in that Region. The number of trucks and buses in the Northern Region in 1961 was 30 per cent of the total for the country, and increased from 1957 to 1961 at a rate of 5.3 per cent. Wlithin this Region trucks and buses were 43 per cent of the total number of motor vehicles. The type of truck most commonly operated in Northern Nigeria has a carrying capacity of 5 - 7 tons. Since 1960, however, this type's share in the total of commercial vehicles dropped quickly from 57 per cent to 49 per cent in 1962 in favor of both lighter and heavier trucks.
14. Motor vehicles are reregistered annually. There is no limitation on the number of operators and on total road transport capacity, but for very heavy trucks operating on trunk roads only special permits from the Public Works Department are required. - 4 -
15. The maximum axle load is 8 tons, which is not prohibitive for the use of trucks with higher loading capacity than the type commonly used in the Northern Region. The poor road conditions and the smaller size of shipments in bush areas, however, in practice tend to limit truck loads to 6 tons at a maximum. This explains the wide use of 5 - 7 ton trucks in these areas. The operation of heavier trucks, therefore, is limited because they can only be economically operated on the main trunk roads.
16. The taxes borne by commercial road transport are modest as compared with some other developing countries. For example, the import duties on the c.i.f. value of trucks and buses are 25 per cent, on tires 33-1/3 per cent and on diesel fuel ls. 9d per gallon or 33-1/3 per cent of the average pump price.
17. With the exception of a few large-scale operators who engage mainly in the long, distance haulage of bulk loads and fuel probably the majority of truck operators own only one or two trucks and are also en- -aged as traders.Because of tlhis dual occupation there is generally no clear-cut distinction between costs, prices and profits on trading, and transportation.
18. The largest operators are generally of Lebanese origin although one of the largest companies is owned by the Government of Northern Nigeria through its Development Corporation. These companies limit their operations mainly to transportation of bulk cargoes on trunk roads. Transport in bush areas of local food stuffs is almost entirely carried out by Nigerian operators. Road and demand conditions generally limit the size f2oadkand call for lesser amounts of capital especially if trucks are acquired second-hand.
C. The Road System
19. In November 1961 the Government of Northern Nigeria approached the Bank for financial assistance in constructing 9h0 miles of Class B road, feeding into the Bornu railways extension. A Bank Mission which visited Nigeria in March 1962 found that of the 12 feeder-roads proposed, only 4 were under technical survey and design, and no feasibility study to determine the economic justification of the roads or of their relative priority had been undertaken.
20. The Bank, therefore, suggested that a consulting firm should be engaged to undertake such a feasibility study, not only of the 12 feeder- roads but also of existing feeder-roads and trunk roads, in order to provide a firmer basis for the establishment of the Region's future road development program. The consulting firm of Scott & Wilson, Kirkpatrick and Partners, in cooperation with Economist Intelligence Unit, signed a contract for the feasibility study in March 1963 based on Terms of Reference agreed upon with the Bank. The Bank provided a Technical Assistance grant to cover 50 per cent of the total cost, with a maximum of US1125,000. The consultant's final report indicates that only some of the 12 feeder-roads originally proposed by the Region are economically justified. 21. The following Table shows the size of the present road network in the Northern Region:
In Miles
Paved Gravel Earth Total
Trunk-roads "A" (Federal) 1451 2618 - ho69 Trunk-roads "B" (Regional) 591 2243 203 3037 Local roads (Native Authorities) - 5334 7560 12894
2042 10195 7763 20000
The costs of constructing and maintaining the Federal roads, Trunk-Roads "A", are borne by the Federal Government, but the Regional Government acts as the executing agent for maintenance.
22. Trunk-roads "B" are constructed and maintained by the Regional Government's ainistry of Works. Capital funds for the improvement of existing roads and the construction of new roads are provided for in the Regional Government's Development Budget. Maintenance is provided for through the Region's annual budget.
23. Local roads are built and maintained by the Native Authorities, (i.e. local government units) sometimes with financial assistance grants from the Regional Government. Some of these roads are merely seasonal tracks which connect villages with each other and with the nearest trunk road.
24. The regional trunk-roads have generally been constructed with a two-lane roadway with only one lane surfaced, if surfaced at all. Embankment widths vary from 22 feet to 42 feet. Laterite, a common road- building material found locally, has been used in many cases as base- material and for surfacing and has proved adequate for low volumes of traffic.
25. Today a large mileage of the Region's trunk-roads are inadequate and in need of upgrading and improvement because of rapid increase in road traffic. Some effort has been made to this end, but without any system- atic planning because of shortage of funds. The design standards applied are not well adapted to the expected traffic and the heavy seasonal rain- fall experienced.
Ministry of Works
26. The Ministry of Works in Kaduna is responsible for roads, govern- mental buildings, rural electricity and water supply in the Region. It is administered by a Permanent Secretary in charge of an administrative division and five works divisions, each of which is headed by a chief engineer and his staff. There are thirteen administrative Provinces and the Capital Territory of Kaduna in the Region. Each has an office headed by a Provincial engineer and organized along the same pattern as the headquarters. - 6 -
27. The Ministry of Works is understaffed because of frequent departure of experienced expatriate officers. As of September 1964 out of 184 established positions within the iinistry of Works, only 95 positions were filled.
28. The shortage of engineers is a serious problem and greatly affects the Ministry's operations. It has compelled the Road Division to concentrate its available staff primarily on maintenance and to seek out- side help through consultants for survey and design of roads to be im- proved or for new roads to be constructed and for supervision in the field. The Divisions' use of own forces for construction works has been curtailed with such work now being given generally to contractors. About 20 foreign road-construction firms are already established in Nigeria.
29. The number of Nigerians graduating in the engineering field is not sufficient to fill the vacant positions and it is no longer possible for an expatriate engineer to make a career in Niigeria. Temporary staff engaged for two-year assignments are usually not fully experienced, nor of sufficiently high celiber. Ways and means to prevent further deteriora- tion of the staff position were discussed during the Credit negotiations. Emphasis was placed on increasing salaries for engineers in higher positions in order to attract or retain good-quality men.
Design Standards and Contract Forms
30. The design standards applied to trunk roads in the past have been too low with insufficient attention being paid to the design of proper drainage facilities. The new design standards, shown in Table 3, which will be applied for future roads are a great improvement and acceptable to the Bank, except for Class II, wAhich slhows a surfacing of only one lane (12 foot) on an embankment of 34 foot width. As the three roads included in the project will be built to Class I standard, 34 foot embankment with a 24 foot (2-lane) wide paved carriageway, the Bank has no objection to the standards applied.
31. The contract form which has been applied in the past is based on normal British practice. A 10 per cent performance guarantee is required and, as a further guarantee, a 10 per cent retention of con- tractor's monthly statements is withheld until an amount eaual to 5 per cent of the estimated cost has been reached. Contracts are awarded on the basis of competitive bidding,based on estimated quantities,and unit prices offered by the contractor.
Road Maintenance
32. The following Table summarizes the amount spent by the Ministry on Federal and Regional roads for maintenance during the last years: - 7 -
Federal Roads
Year Mileage Expenditures Rate per mile 1958-59 4007 E 774,000 I,193 1959-60 4062 890,000 219 1960-61 4063 720,000 177 1961-62 4066 880,000 216 1962-63 4069 909,000 223
Regional Roads
Year Mileage Expenditures Rate per mile 1958-59 2137 E 202,000 E 95 1959-60 2617 232,000 89 1960-61 2959 474,000 160 1961-62 3007 439,000 146 1962-63 3037 493,000 162 1963-64 3045 675,308 223
33. The rate of E 223 per mile per annum for Federal and Regional roads (US$390 per km/year) last year would seem normal for routine maintenance only. However, because of the sharp increase of traffic in recent years and the inferior standards to which roads were originally built, deferred mainten- ance and periodic resurfacing is required at higher cost to prevent the roads from further deterioration. The yearly allocation for road maintenance of Regional roads should be increased therefore to meet the higher cost of main- tenance. Provision of adequate maintenance was discussed during Credit negotia- tions and assurance obtained from the Northern Region that the yearly maintenance allocation would be increased.
34. Overloading of trucks is quite common, although a Road Traffic Regulation of 1948 with Amendments of March 1955 is in force. Axle load is restricted to 8 tons; a special police force or organization has been created by Federal Authorities to enforce the regulations. Tae control of loads of trucks and the issuing of permits will from now on be taken over by the Ministry of Works through a special division created for this purpose. Road Construction in the Past
35. Capital expenditures for roads in the Northern Region over the last 4 to 5 years have varied between 1 1.2 and E 1.5 million per year. For the Region's Development Program 1962-1968 an amount of E 16 million was pro- jected for road improvement and new construction. This program was based on the assumption of external financial assistance of 50 percent of total cost. Local costs, therefore, would have been about E 1.3 million per year, which is close to the amounts recently spent. Foreign financial assistance for roads has not been forthcoming so far. VJhen the Development Program started in 1962, an amount of E 2.5 million was already committed as carry-over from the previous plan, to complete several projects already in hand. Except for a bridge over the river Wuya, no new major roadwork has been started since 1962, because of a shortage of funds. Without outside financial help, it is likely that the road program envisaged in the Plan would be delayed for several years. - 8.-
III. THE PROJECT
A. Description
36. The project consists of:
1. Road Construction and Improvement
The construction of 224 miles of new roads located in the following regions:
a. 128 miles of road between Maiduguri and Kauwa with spurs to Baga on Lake Chad and Kukawa (see Map, road No. 3).
b. 82 miles of road between Gombe and Biu including a bridge over the river Gongola at Hinna (see Map, road No. 1).
c. 14 miles of road between Gumel and Maigatari connecting at 14aigatari with the road network of Republic of Niger (see Map, road No. 34).
d. The improvement of about 50 miles of feeder roads along the Biu-Gombe road east of the Gongola river (see Map, road No. 1).
2. Consulting Services
The employment of consultants for the supervision of the road works under (1).
3. Equipment
The, procurement of additional testing equipment for the soil laboratories and installations and equipment for the control of vehicles,
37. The road Maiduguri - Baga (No. 3) included in the Project will open up an area northeast of Naiduguri and link Lake Chad with the remainder of the road netwo rk. The present road is a track passable only during the dry season. Theinew road will be built to Class I standards with a paved carriageway of 24-2feet. The terrain is flat, with occasional floods caused by rainwater. Tffe: new road therefore will be raised above the general level of the countryside. The soil consists of either loose sand or a variety of clay-sand soil. -ecause of lack of natural roadbuilding materials such as gravel, rock or faterte, the base will be of sand stabilized by cement, with a paved carriageway of a double-surface treatment. 38. Road No. 1 will serve as an outlet to the railway from a productive agricultural area between Gombe and Biui. The present road is a dirt-gravel road that is considered only partially an all-weather road. The lack of a bridge over the Gongola river at Hinna is a great handicap for present traffic. The new road will follow the alignment of the present road in general and be built to Class I standards. The terrain is rolling. There are ample locations of road-building materials as sand, gravel and rock along the road. The bridge over the Gongola river will be a reinforced concrete beam structure of total length of about 300 feet. In the areas north and south of the new road east of the Gongola River improvement of about 50 miles of existing feeder-roads at an estimated cost of L500000 is required in order to obtain the full economic benefits from the new road.
39. The new road (No. 34) between Gumel and Maigatari, which lies at the Niger border, will replace an earth road through an area of agricultural potential. It will join up with a new road to the Republic of Niger the construction of which is being financed by an IDA Credit. The terrain between Gumel and Maigatari is flat. Lack of gravel necessitates the use of a stabi- lized base. The road will be built to normal Class I standards.
4o. Because of the shortage of engineers within the Ministry, it is necessary to have consulting engineers to supervise the construction of these roads in the field. This has been made a condition of the Credit. h1. The control of road traffic and loading of vehicles as laid down in the Road Traffic Regulations of 1948 has been difficult to enforce because of the shortage of proper staff and proper equipment. The procurement and installation of weighbridges, inspection vehicles and traffic counters are part of the road project, as well as procurement of additional equipment for soil laboratories in Kaduna and in the field.
B. Cost of the Project
42. The following Table summarizes the cost of the project (for details, see Table 4): Total Cost Local Cost Foreign Cost in million ; in million ; in million US$ a) Construction of 224 miles of trunk roads and improvement of about 50 miles of feeder-roads, including 15% contingencies 8.00 2.80 14.44 b) Consultantst fees 0.35 0.07 0.78 c) Procurement: laboratory equip- ment, installation and equip- ment for control of vehicles 0.10 - 0.28
; 8.45 1,2.87 $ 15.50
or total $ 23.7 million - 10 -
43. The road Maiduguri - Baga (No. 3) has been fully surveyed and designed by the ivlinistry's own forces and reviewed by the consulting firm in charge of the feasibility study. The work was found satisfactory. The cost estimate is based on actual quantities and expected unit prices. For the Gombe - Biu road (No. 1) an outside consulting firm undertook the final survey and design, which, after being checked by the consultants in charge of the feasibility study, required certain amendments which have now been completed by the Ministry of Works.
44. The design for the bridge over the Gongola River (road No. 1) has been provided by the M4inistry and reviewed by the consultants. The final survey of road No. 34, Gumel - Maigatari, has been undertaken by the Ministry's own forces and is now completed.
45. To safeguard against unexpected cost increase, a 15 percent con- tingency is applied to the construction cost. The estimated cost for con- sultant's services is regarded as adequate.
46. The type and size of weigh bridges, laboratory equipment, etc., to be procured will be subject to an agreement between the Ministry and IDA. The amount indicated in para. 42c has been established on the basis of discussions with the M4inistry.
47. The foreign exchange component of 65 percent of total cost applied for the construction cost is based on a calculation undertaken by the con- sultants in charge of the feasibility study, and is reasonable. For the consultants' services, 80 percent of total cost may be expected as foreign exchange component.
C. Disbursement Schedule and Financing of Local Cost
48. Over the 3!-year construction period required for the execution of the project, the expected disbursement would be as follows:
Total Cost Local Cost Foreign Cost in million I in million E in million Us$
First year 2.45 0.83 4.48 Second year 3.00 1.02 5.52 Third year 2.50 0.85 4.50 Fourth year 0.50 0.17 0.90
8.45 2.87 15.50
49. Total cost in local funds will be made available each year by appro- priation in the budget to cover the total cost of the project of which the Association will reimburse the foreign cost component. - 11 -
D. Execution of the Project
50. The road works, installations and equipment will be awarded to con- tractors on the basis of international competitive bidding among prequalified contractors. The road construction contracts will be unit price bids on given quantities of work to be executed.
51. The consultants in charge of the supervision of the work in the field will assist the Ministry in preparing the detailed list of installations and equipment to be purchased out of the Credit. (see para. 41) - 12 -
IV. ECONOMIC JUSTIFICATION
A. General
52. The Maiduguri - Lake Chad road lies within the Bornu Province, The Gombe - Biu road runs between the Bornu and Bauchi Provinces which are in the northeastern corner of Northern Nigeria. The Maigatari - Gumel road lies in the northeast of Kano Province (see Map). As elsewhere in the country, agriculture is the basis of Northern Nigeria's economic system, although industrial activities are growing. Agricultural techniques are based on small holdings generally without mechanization. In areas where transportation facilities are inadequate subs s e c farming predominates. The main cash crops grown are groundnuts and for export. During the last three years the Bornu and Bauchi Provinces contributed about 20 percent of the groundnuts and about 25 percent of the cotton purchased by the Northern Nigeria Marketing Board.. These Provinces contain a large portion of Northern Nigeriats cattle population which is estimated at over 2 million head.
B. Marketing Policies
53. Agricultural cash crops for export or for use in local mills as raw material are purchased from producers by the Northern Nigeria Marketing Board. The Board is responsible for the marketing of these products, but its immediate responsibility within Nigeria extends only to their evacuation to Nigerian ports. Overseas shipment and selling is carried out by the Nigerian Produce Marketing Company Ltd., which is jointly owned by all the Marketing Boards in the country, and is the exclusive selling agency for the exDort of Marketing Board produce. Final proceeds of marketing operations, after allowances for storage, transportation, export duties, and overhead, are remitted to the Regional Pviarketing Boards.
54. The Northern Nigeria Marketing Board carries out its purchasing operations through private enterprises who act as Licensed Buying Agents. Gazetted buying stations are located throughout the production areas.
55. Produce is bought at guaranteed minimum producer prices, which are set at the beginning of each season. Except for seed cotton these prices are "delivered at port of shipment", and hence the ultimate price the producer will receive depends on the agreed cost of transportation from buying station to port by the approved route, and on the prevailing produce sales tax. Buying agents are remunerated by the Board by means of a buying allowance per ton handled. The Board pays for these services from the margin between the proceeds received from the Nigeria Produce M4arketing Company and the port of shipment price. The remaining surplus, if any, goes to the Marketing Boardts reserves. The port of shipment price varies more or less with the long-term changes in world market prices.
56. Transportation from the Iroduction areas to the port of shipment is arranged by the Licensed Buying Agents, who are reimbursed by the Marketing Board for transportation costs on the basis of fixed allowances per ton-mile - 13 - which are set for the various production areas. It may happen that actual transportation charges are less than the allowance so that buying agents make a profit on transportation. In such cases each buying agent tries to maxim- ize the volume of tonnage bought by paying higher prices to the producer than the minimum set by the Marketing Board. As a result,the producer receives part of the difference between anticipated and actual transport cost. In this way a lowering of transport costs can be beneficial to producers.
C. Benefits
Induced Production
57. As is indicated in detail in Annex I the potential in the project areas for increases of agricultural output, cattle raising, and fisheries is considerable. In general, climate, soil and labor do not limit the increase of local food production over much of Northern Nigeria. Production in excess of subsistence needs is generally limited by poor transportation facilities or lack of access to markets. These factors are interrelated in that improved transport facilities which lower transport costs bring markets economically closer to the production areas.
58. In those areas where transportation has been improved, cash cropping is being increasingly added to subsistence farm operations, and the products have found a ready market. Grains especially offer good prospects. Increases in groundnut and cotton production are largely dependent on world market. conditions.
59. The world market outlook for groundnuts and groundnut products is uncertain because of competition from other vegetable oils, synthetic sub- stitutes and changes in demand. The consultants expect that in the future groundnuts can only be sold at lower prices. By the early 1970s these will possibly be 10 percent under the present price level. To remain competitive in the world market and to allow the groundnut producers a satisfactory income, it is of great importance that the inland transport system of Nigeria be improved.
60. It is expected that future cotton output can be sold abroad and in Nigeria at slightly declining prices. The recent establishment of spinneries and textile factories within Nigeria may prove to be a stabilizing price factor and stimulate a further increase of production.
61. The marketing of meat and fish coming from areas which have been opened up by improved transportation facilities has met no difficulties. Fresh meat from the abattoir of Maiduguri is moved by air to Lagos. Dried fish from Lake Chad is consumed in Kano, Jos, and the Eastern Region of Nigeria.
62. It has been found extremely difficult to assess the present pro- duction and the local consumption in the project areas. Available information on yields and size of farms showed wide ranges, so that the use of averages was not possible in estimating total production. The Northern Nigeria Marketing Board publishes data relating to the production of export crops in various local areas, but because of organizational differences in the system of buying operations, only the cotton production figures by areas are reliable. For these reasons the consultants concentrated their efforts on estimating the volume of cash crops exported from the areas by intensive questioning at specially arranged village meetings. The "natural" increase of this volume in the future has been based on the normal population growth rate, which was estimated at two percent over the past decade.
63. In assessing the effects of the construction or improvement of the project roads on agricultural production the same method of questioning has been applied. It is assumed that the pattern of food consumption and the per capita food consumption in the areas remain constant, so that all the "induced" agricultural production is exported from the production area. Forecasts have been made for the lOth year after construction of the roads; thereafter, it has been assumed the benefits of the 10th year will remain constant.
6h. There is little doubt that the method followed by the consultants to assess and cross check present and future production in the project areas, given the fact that no information was available to make comparisons possible with areas newly opened up, was the best and only thing to do. But it should be made clear that it has serious limitations, which make it very conservative.
65. In the first place, the information received at the village meetings on the volume presently exported from the areas had to be evaluated conserva- tively. Secondly, the population growth rate of 2 percent which was assumed for the past decade and on which the "natural" increase of agricultural prod- uction has been based, may have been 3 percent according to the 1963 census. Thirdly, the estimates of the production induced by the road works &re based on intensified use of the areas presently under cultivation without regard to any penetrating effect into remote areas; and on intonsified cultivation by the existing population, Since population, e-pecially in the Biu-Gombe area, has noticeably been migrating into the presently cultivated areas during the last few years because of better soil and water conditions compared with other regions, this assumption is a clear understatement of what might reasonably be expected to happen after improvement of the transport situation, Finally, other possible benefits, such as the effect of improled transportation facili- ties on the competition among traders reducing the prices of goods imported into the area have not been taken into account.
66. Consequently, the assessment of the benefits, and particularly those from induced agricultural production, should be regarded as a con- servazive approach of what may be expected as a minimum from the proposed road construction.
67. Induced production from road construction has been valued at esti- mated future market prices considering future general demand as well as the specific demand and supply factors appertaining to the particular areas. These include the probable effects on future prices of changes in the pattern of demand and supply (internal and external) and of the development of trans- port facilities.
68. Traffic forecasts were based on estimates of export tonnage from the areas, the use of 5-6 toni trucks and trafTc counts. The daily movements are averages over the main selling season, not over the whole year. - 15 -
Road User Savings
69. The Project roads would replace existing earth roads, which for parts are even ungraded, and would reduce vehicle operating costs by an average of 60 percent as a result of a better use of existing capacity through higher annual mileage and higher speed, longer life of the vehicle, lower consumption of fuel and lubricants, less tire wear, and reduced costs of repair.
70. Table 5 shows that the cost per capacity ton-mile for a 6-ton truck on a paved road can be estimated at 3.3 pence as compared with 4.1 pence on a bituminous or well-maintained laterite road of present standards, 6.4 pence on a graded earth road, and 8.3 pence on an ungraded road. However, corresponding savings in road transport cost would be even higher as soon as a newly con- structed or improved road becomes part of the trunk road network, because the use of heavier, more efficient trucks would become possible, (See para. 15.) D. Conclusion
71. The economic justification of roads 1 and 3 is based on the expected minimum benefits from development of agriculture, fisheries, and cattle raising during the 10-year period after completion; and on the expected road-user savings forthe existing volume of traffic increasing in accordance with the normal growth of production, and for part of the induced traffic. Because of the -limitations of the methods applied and the insufficient basis for long-term forecasts, no further increase in production has been taken. It has been assumed, again conservatively, that the benefits from induced production will remain constant during the second decade. For road No. 34 the justification is based on the expected road-user savings during its full life.
72. On this basis the minimum quantifiable benefits to be expected from the proposed construction works - discounted over the 20-year assumed economic life of the project roads - would yield a rate of return of 9- percent for Road No. 3 (Maiduguri-Kauwa-Baga-Kukawa), 61 percent for Road No. 1 (Gombe-Biu), and 82 percent for Road No. 34 (Maigatari-Gumel). In view of the conservative approach adopted in assessing the quantifiable benefits for Roads No& 1 and 3 and the limitation of the forecast period to 10 years only it can be expected that the actual benefits will be greater than those expressed. If these additional benefits were to be taken into account,they would add some 2 to 3 percent to the above rates of return.
73. Other benefits which are also important are likely to accrue from the Project, but they cannot be quantified. The roads would (i) improve all- year accessibility to the areas served, overcoming the detrimental effects of isolation, especially with respect to prices of goods imported in theareas; (ii) facilitate the movement of people and thus widen their political, social, and economic horizon; and (iii) make the areas better accessible to adminis- tration officers and facilitate the accomplishment of the otbjects of the Govern- ment ts economic and social policy.
7h. A fuller description of the benefits for each of the project roads is given in Annex I and can be summarized as follows: - 16 -
75. Road No. 3: Maiduguri-Kauwa-Baga-Kukawa - The proposed road would provide access to a large area fromqwhich dr-ed fish and agricultural produce are transported at high cost. It would stimulate the production of cash crops and improve the transport of fish, which now suffer heavy losses due to a deterioration in quality, as well as make possible the attainment of the con- siderable potential that exists for an expansion of the fishing industry. The forecasts of dry fish volumes are based on the assumption that positive steps will be taken, wqhich require little capital investment in the first stage, for the development of the fishing industry. The Government of Northern Nigeria has outlined a firm program for the development of the fishing industry along the lines laid down in its 6-year Economic Development Program.
76. Road No. 1: Gombe-Biu - Construction of this road would be bene- ficial to a large agricultural area, which is partly well cultivated now and which offers good prospects for the future production, in particular, for cotton. Construction of the bridge across the Gongola River would open up the area east of the river, which is at present poorly served by the road from Biu to Damaturu. Large areas which are of high potential for agriculture extend northwest from the Gombe-Biu road, east of the Gongola River, and especially to the southeast on both sides of the river. The effect of the road on agriculture in the area east of-the river can be expected to be increased considerably by the concurrent building of feeder roads or by the reconstruction of existing tracks. The additional investment necessary for this part of the Project has been agreed upon during negotiations. The justification presented in this report is based on the inclusion of the cost of these feeder roads and of the additional benefits that can be expected therefrom. The construction of feeder roads in the area extending southeast from the road, west from the Gongola River, has been considered but appeared not justified because the difficult soil conditions would result in high construction costs and also because of the prospect of a trunk road running northwest-southeast being built in the near future. It is expected, therefore, that this area will continue to be served by existing tracks and that improvement of the section of the Biu-Gombe road west of the Gongola River will not have an extra effect on agricultural production.
77. Road No. 3h: Maigatari-Gumel - The road crosses an area which is only partly cultivated. Maigatari is an important market center on the border with Niger. The road will be part of the link between the Dungass area in Niger and the important railhead of Kano after the construction of the road from Dungass to the Nigerian border, which is financed by IDA. At present the road to Gumel is a graded earth road and only trafficable during 8 months of the year. However, the influence of the hard-surfaced road Kano-Gumel-Hadejia prevents the area from being completely isolated, so that the favorable effect of this 14 mile long road on agricultural production would be only marginal. It is expected, however, that the stimulus given to border trade with Niger would be considerable, and as a consequence, the area's income would increase. Quanti- tative measurements of benefits have been based only on road user savings and on savings in road maintenance cost, which would be considerable regarding the expected number of about 150 trucks per day during the evacuation season for agricultural products. - 17 -
V. CONCLUSIO"IS AND RECCIMNDATIONS
78. The engineering of the Project has been satisfactorily carried out and checked by a consulting firm and the cost estimates are reasonable.
79. The Project is economically justified by a satisfactory return from the development of agriculture, fisheries and cattle raising, and from road users' savings
80. The Project provides a suitable base for an IDA Credit of US$15.5 million equivalent on the usual terms.
December 15, 1964 ANNEX I
ECONOMIC JUSTIFICATION FOR SPECIFIC SECTIONS OF THE PROJECT
Maiduguri-Kawa-Baga-Kukawa Road (Road No. 3)
General
1. The proposed road, by providing access at all seasons to a very large area, is basically a route for the evacuation of fish and agricultural produce from northeast Bornu. At present, goods are transported with diffi- culty and at high cost over a track wihich is only passable during the dry season,
2. Mlaiduguri is the most important commercial and administrative center in the eastern part of Northern Nigeria. It is connected by roads with Kano and Bauchi to the west, and with Fort Lamy (Republic of Tchad) to the east. It will be the terminal of the Bornu Railway extension, which is to be in full operation in 1965. Kawa and Kukawa are small population centers with agricul- ture as their main activity. Baga - located on the edge of Lake Chad - is a fishing village and trading center of importance.
3. The population in the service area of the road has risen from approximately 100,000 in 1952/53 to about 132,000 in 1962/63. These figures include the population in the area along Lake Chad up to the border with Niger, which would be served indirectly by the road. Most of the population, however, is concentrated in the area between Maiduguri and Kawa. The increase is due to some extent to the migration of people from areas more to the west. Popula- tion density is low - frequently below 20 persons per square mile and nowhere greater than 50 per square mile.
Agriculture and Livestock
4. The country from Maiduguri towards Lake Chad is flat with a fertile clay soil, except for the last section. Near Maiduguri about 80 percent of the land is cultivated, but this percentage steadily decreases to almost nil at the lake. Sorghum, millet, rice and cassava are the main subsistence crops grown. The last section of the road passes through fertile sand-drift soils, which are particularly suitable for groundnuts wihich form the basis of cash farming in the area. At present much of the land is used for the grazing of herds of sheep, goats and cattle, which are probably the greatest single source of wealth in the area. There are probably at least 500,000 in the area at some time during the year. Seasonal rroverents into and out of the area are de- clinir.g. -ater is found at reasonable depths and a vigorous procraam of vell digging is being pursued by the Government, The present water position seems satisfactory, but the long-term adequacy of the water resources is not yet proven. It is uncertain whether borehole water is suitable and sufficient for irrigation purposes. Groundnuts, sorghum and some pulses, therefore, may well be the only possible crops that can be grown, particularly in areas with sandy soil. ANNEX I Page 2
Fisheries
5. The Nigerian shoreline of Lake Chad is a bout 160 miles long with the international boundary being about 30 miles offshore. For the Project road two ports are of importance: Baga on a peninsula in the middle of the shore- line; and hiallamfatori at the _7ijer border. Present fishing methods are primitive. Hand-poled, one-man boats are used, -which cannot operate more than 2-3 miles from the shore. In total some 3,500 fishermen are engaged. There are no special fishing port facilities in either of the ports. The establish- ment of permanent port structures w^Jould be difficult due to considerable seasonal differences in water level.
6. Fish which is not locally consumed immediately is dried or smoked (banda) and shipped via Maiduguri to consumption areas in the wrest and south. .Jeight losses up to 40 percent due to infection *with mites and rough handling be-twJeen the Lake shore and markets in Southern Nigeria are considered normal.
7. Extensive research about the fishery in Lake Chad is needed in order to use its potential fully. On the basis of knowledge presently available it appears that there is no question of fish resources being regarded a limiting factor upon development of fishing in the next 10 to 15 years.
8. It has been suggested that the development of improved fishing tech- niques should be divided into twfo stages. In the first stage the use of simple nets and self-made driers wiould be introduced. This would be a marked improve- ment over the priritive methods presently aoplied. 'Uith the experience of the first stage the second phase would be introiuced, when use of better and bigger boats w-fould be made, as well as more refined driers.
9. The first stage implies mainly the improvement of existing methods and the need for little additional inveEtment. The second stage, the advent of modern commercial fishing, would probably need or7anizational changes and substantial amounts of investment. Forecasts of dry fish volumes in future are based on the assumption that the fishing industry will gradually be e,,Ipanded along these lines.
10. It is expected that development of the fishing industry will be faster if the road is built. Ease of access for buyers, for fisheries officers, for suppliers of equipment and gear and a general quickening of economic activity can be expected to bring a more rapid progress through the first stage of development and into the second.
Induced Production
11. Produce which moves at present to and from N.allamfatori via Kawa to Haiduguri would continue to do so after construction of the proposed road. The effect of the new road on production and transport costs for this area, however, is only partial, but has been taken into account.
12. The estimated exports in 1962/63 and the value of induced production that can be attributed to the Project road in the 10th year after completion are show%n below: ANNEX I Page 3
Estimated Bxpor s and Value of Induced Production
Exports in Induced Production Total Exports 1962/63 in 10th year in 10th year
(tons) (tons) (£ 1,000) (tons) (1) (2) (3) (h)
Groundnuts 7,200 3,050 70 13,000 Guinea corn and millet 7,600 2,600 47 12,200 Fish (banda) 4,100 1,250 219 6,650 Gum arabic 100 - - 100 Hides and skins 150 50 3 350 Kangw-a 4,000 - - 4,ooo Others 2,900 2,150 118 8,200
Total 26,050 9,100 L57 W4,500
Allowance has to be made for the transport cost to laiduguri (estimated at 10,000), so that the value attributable to the road is Bh47,000. 2/ -' The difFerence betTween columns (1) + (2) and (4) con- sists of the "natural" growrth of the initial eyports.
Road User Savings
13. Truck operating costs under elisting road conditions are estimated to be 8.3 pence pcr ton-mile. Under the new road conditions they are expected to iall to around 3.3 pence per ton-mile. These savings, net of taxes, would amount to L179,000 in the 10th year after conmpletion of the road.
14. In 1962/63 traffic was estimated at about 80 trucks per day during the evacuation season and at some 20 trucks daily during the rest of the year. Based on the estimated volume of cargo to be evacuated it is expected that these numbers would be about 120 and 40 resnectively 10 years after completion. These figures exclude car traffic.
15. Reduced ueight losses for banda. It has been estimated that loss of weight for banda due to infestation and bad transport conditions varies from 20 to 30 percent of the original weight during transportation from the lake shore to Mlaiduguri alone. Assuming that only 10 percent of the original weight is lost as a result of the poor road conditions, the corresponding savings resulting from its irmprovemernt would amount to £98,000 in the 10th year after completion. - I
Total Benefits
16. On the basis of the above estimates of induced production, less dama e to fish, and road user savings, and allowring for maintenance costs £200 per mile for the first five years and £300 thereafter, net benefits ANNE I Page 4 from the proposed road construction can be summarized as follocws: Estimated Annmal Benefits in 10th Year Induced production f447,000 Decreased loss of weight for banda 98,000 Road user savings 179,000
£724,000 Less road maintenance costs - 38,000
Total £686,000
Road No. 1: Gombe - Biu General
17. This road which crosses a productive and densely populated area, has a connection with the rail head at Gombe at its western end and with Maiduguri and Yola to the east. The connections between the area east of the Gongola River and Gombe, however, are very poor. Because of the numerous streams traversing the area and the absence of bridges and culverts, the road east of the Gongola River is only trafficable during 4 months of the year. The service area of the road varies in width from 6-20 miles on either side.
18. Gombe is an important administrative and trading center and has 2 cotton ginneries. Its present zone of influence extends as far as Hinna, on the east bank of the Gongola River. Population in this area rose from 66,000 in 1952 to an estimated 98,000 in 1962, while that of Hinna itself doubled. Many immigrants into the area have come from the more northern provinces as part of a movement which started about 12 years ago.
19. Biu - located at the eastern end of the road - dominates an area which in 1962 contained about 180,000 people. Population density along the entire road is estimated at 80 per square mile. Agriculture 20. The topography of the area is undulating forested hills with flatter agricultural areas between the hills. From the Gongola River eastward the land rises in a series of steps to the Biu Plateau, which is largely at 2,000 - 2,500 feet, with Biu itself being at 2,500 feet.
21. Streams traversing the area have caused erosion in some places. Soils vary from fertile black clay to sandy loam. In general these soils are quite good, although some types are difficult to work with the better types being found to the west of the Gongola River. The soils on the higher parts of the Biu Plateau are derived from basalt. Fertility is fairly good, but their depth and the ease of farming vary considerably, and it seems that their fer- tility tends to decline quickly under present farming practices. Rain falls from May to October and averages 37-40 inches a year. ALNEY I Page 5
22. Along the road from Gombe to the Gongola River agriculture is well developed. In recent years people have moved from areas north of the road to areas further to the south wihere soils are heavier and better suited for cotton growing. Consequently the northern area tends to be underfarmed in places. But in the south immense areas still remain uninhabited and are of high poten- tial in agricultural development. Cotton is the main crop in this area. While farming methods are relatively advanced, they are capable of improvement, For examiple, the average cotton yield which is estimated at 200 lbs. per acre at present could well be raised to 500 lbs. w-ith better physical control of the soil and greater weed control. Uells provide sufficient water, and the land tenure systems do riot appear to restrict development to any significant extent.
23. The area along the road betwveen Hiinna - east of the Gongola River - and Biu is quite heavily cultivated in parts. Large areas of good land both north and south of the road, however, remain unfarmed. Isolation has been a major factor in the area's baclnTardness. Main crops are maize, sorghum, cassava for local consumption and some cotton and groundnuts as cash crops.
24. The densitr of the population on the plateau cannot be supported by the soil conditions and the water supply. 'Uhile the plateau is a large grass- producing area, its usefulness is limited because of the tsetse fly infection. It is estimated that only some 20 percent of the land is under cultivation. An area of 100 square miles has been alloc_ted to a scheme for the permanent settlement of Fulani cattle otmers.
Lnduced Production
25. The impact on agriculture in the area east of the Gongola River as a result of improving the preseint road would be considerable. IWith the construc- tion of feeder roads, thc usefulness would be even more increased. A reduction in transport cost for movements betwYeen Biu and Jos can be achieved, as explained in paragraph 28, and will have a significant effect on the output of the area.
26. Since the condition of the present road betWeen Gombe and the Gongola River is adequate to serve properly the areas immediately north and south of this section it has been considered that its reconstruction will stimulate agri- cultural production only in the areas east of the river. Although on the west side of the river the area farther awTay from the road to the southeast has a verir high potential, to open it up would require a high standard road. Improve- ment of the existing tracks to feeder road standards would be costly and in- sufficient.
27. The estimated quantities and the value of induced production in the 10th year after completion as a consequence of the proposed road improvement are as follows: ANNEX I Page 6
Estimated Exports and Value of Induced Production
Exports in Induced Production 1962/63 originating in 10th year Total Export 1 west of river east of river east of river in 10th year (tons) (tons) (tons) (El1,000) (tons) (1) (2) (3) (4) (5)
Cotton 3,200 4,600 900 36 7,600 Groundnuts 2,500 2,500 2,700 59 11,700 Cowpeas 1,800 1,500 1,300 30 6,900 Guineacorn, millet 2.,000 -)800 14 6,000 Maize 800 - ) Rice 2,000 200 1,700 80 6,100 Pepper - - 600 45 600 Other 2,100 900 1,300 26 7,000
Total 14,400 9,700 9,300 290 4/45,900
l/ Allowance has to be made for the transport cost to nearby markets (estimated at E25,000) and for the induced production in the area along the road Biu-Little Gombi, roughly valued at £90,000, so that the value attributable to the Gombe-Biu road is E355,000.
2/ The difference between columns (1) + (2) + (3) and (5) consists of the "natural" growth of the initial e.-ports. Road User Savings
28. At present produce from the immediate Biu area as well as a part of the produce groun along the Gombe-Biu road to the east of the Gongola River is transported via 3uni-Damaturu. This is the case not only for exports to Kano and Maiduguri but also for ;foods e-ported to Jos, where they are either consurmed or re-distributed to Eastern :Jigeria. It cannot be expected that these movements will be switched to the rail when Buni station will be opened. Assuming supplemental railwTay rates fronm Buni to Gombi of 1.5 d per ton-mile, and trucking rates from Biu to Buni of 5.5 d per ton-mile and of 5 d betwreen Biu and Gombe after road construction, it can be e-pected that products shipped by rail to the ports for eyport will be loaded at Gombe station. The route by. road to Jos via Gombe instead of via Damaturu is 122 miles shorter. Truck operating cost for the Biu-Gombe road can be estimated at 8.3 pence per ton- mile under present conditions, and at 3.3 pence after reconstruction.
Transport cost savings net of taxes from diverted traffic and from lower oper- ating costs for normal traffic and half of the induced traffic are estimated at £140.,000 in the 10th year after completion: MA1E7 I Page 7
Niormal Traffic 59,500 Diverted Traffic 20,000 Induced Traffic 60,500
140,000
29. It is expected that 10 years after completion some 300 vehicles would be on the road daily near the Gongola bridge and some 425 near Gombe over a 150 day oeriod. Such volurmes adequately justify the proposed road design standards.
Mlaintenance Cost
30. If the road were not reconstructed, maintenance cost per mile for the section west of the Gongola River could be estimated at L300 in 1975 if its deterioration were to be avoided. Figures for the section east of the Gongola River would be 100 per mile. In 1975 maintenance cost after recon- struction could be expected to be L500 for the section west of the river and 1400 on the eastern side. This would lead to increased maintenance expendi- tures amounting to B22,000. This amount has to be subtracted from the bene- fits of other items.
Total Benefits
31. On the basis of tne estimated value of induced production, savings in transport cost, and allowuances for differences in maintenance costs - as set forth in the above - net benefits from the proposed road works can be summarized as fol-lows:
Estimated Benefits in 10th Year
Induced production Z355,000 Transport cost savings from diverted traffic 20,000 Road user savings 120,000
1,495, 000 Increased maintenance cost 22,000
Total t473o000
Road 'No.34: Plai-atari-Gurnel
32. The road connects Mai7atari - large market center on the border afith Uiiger - writh Gumel, which itself is an important market tot-n lying on the bituminous surfaced road to Kano. The project road is 14 miles long and crosses an area which is only partially under cultivation. Main crops produced are groundnuts, guineacorn, millet, and beans. The area has a good potential for increased acricultural production. It is difficult, however, to assess the AN;TEX I Page 8 direct effect that improvement of the road could have on the development of the area adjacent to the road. Although the present road is hardly trafficable in the wet season the influence of the hard-surfaced road Kano-Gumel-Hadejia prevents the area from being completely isolated. It may be expected that the project road after construction will strengthen Nlaigatari's position as center of the area. It is also expected that border trade airth Niger will increase considerably, since construction within Niger of the road from Dungass to the border - which is being financed by IDA - will facilitate transport of pro- ducts and movement of people between the two countries.
33. Traffic counts made in the past few years have indicated an average of 120 trucks per day using the road during the dry season. In the wet season the daily average is estimated at one-third of this figure. Based on the expected growth factor for the main agricultiual crops traffic is expected to increase at an annual rate of 4 percent. In addition it can be estimated that a net increase of groundnut exports of 23,500 tons from Niger will be moved along the road after construction of the Dungass-Maigatari road in 1965/66. Assuming average truck loads of 9 tons this would represent some 30 additional truck movements daily during, tihe evacuation season of six months. Traffic other than trucks has been neglected.
34. Truck operatinE cost net of taxes can be estimated at 6.4 pence per ton-mile under present conditions, and at 3.3 pence after construction. This would add up to E57,000 of road user savings net of taxes in 1965/66. As indi- cated in para. 70 of the main report it is expected that in future heavier trucks will be used in this area, because construction of the road wiould connect the area as far as Dungass with the all-wieather trunk road network of Nigeria. Operatino cost for a 9-ton truck can be estimated at 2.5 pence per capacity ton-mile. Allowing a transition period of 5 years it would mean that operating cost would further decline gradually from 3.3 pence per ton-mile in 1966 to 2.5 pence in 1972. Annual maintenance expenditures necessary to pre- vent deterioration of tne road if it would not be reconstructed can be esti- mated at £230 per mile for the period up to 1970, £300 per mile from 1970 to 1975, and E450 per mile thereafter. Nlaintenance cost after construction would be E300 per mile per year, so thLJt annual savings on maintenance cost would be £150 after 1975. TABLE 1
NORTHIEN iIIGRIA _ ROAD PROJECT
Volume of imports and exports of Nigeria 1956-1963 handled at Lagos and Port Harcourt
(1,000 dead-,eight tons)
Year Lagos Port Harcourt Total
1956 1,332 519 1.,851
1957 1,518 584 2,102
1958 1,388 579 1,967
1959 1,625 678 2,303
1960 1,699 693 2,392
1961 1,694 732 2,426
1962 1,819 831 2,650
1963 1,643 876 2,519
Source: Nigerian Ports Authority, Annual Report 1963. TABLE 2
NORTHIL?N 'JIG7.RIA - T0-11 PROJ CT
Number of registered mlotor vehicles in Nigeria, 1957-61 (thousands)
1957 1958 1959 1960 1961
Trucks & Buses 16.4 15.9 17.4 20.1 23.9 Of which Aorthern Itegion ( 5.8) ( 5.8) ( 6.3) ( 6.4) ( 7.1)
Private Cars 19.8 20.1 23.5 30.6 36.8 Of ;rhich Northern Region ( 5.0) ( 5.9) ( 5.6) ( 7.0) ( 7.6)
Motorcycles 3.4 b.0 4.9 7.3 11.2 Of which Northern Region ( 0.8) ( 1.0) ( 1.2) ( 1.5) ( 1.9)
Total 39.6 40.0 45.8 58.o 71.9 -Ofwhich Northern Re-ion (11.6) (12.7) (13.1) (14.9) (16.6)
Source: Federation of !\igeria: Digest of Statistics Vol. 12, No. 3. Yabl. 3 SUPERELEVAT ION RATES, SUPERELEVAT ION ON CURtVESor,
VPVO o4 50 0
I44IEROL I ~~~~LASSI
-T ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ -E d1 - - -4- CR~~~~~~~~~~~~ILOGTOSINAIOSECTIOX' NAAOSIIX 40d
.. A. INS 071 04*'41=
'T- .1 -. C IjL4± ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~-.. *2507 .- ELII/Fool V .1. Im~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~.0
~~~1_---- -I_ I0 oo Si±o440*vWP7 ______,_
SOCK SLAPO A I~~~~-DCRSSSC'IO
ALIGNMEN 0-E ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~.- . T
*0.~~~~~~~~~~ - P48 Of 1044~~~~~~- - 0fm ----- 4 4 K*p,~~~~~~~~~~~% T <. A ASRS400.A, - . iT4 =o CLASSI H '" ~~~~~~~~~~~~o LAS tROP -ED.1. `0!.i. -I-~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ S..- a ==AL AVERAGE SAtE "n'b-mc - -~~~~~~~~~~~.1"Pp DSIN TADAD70*0*~L"GEMERI
'=ZE Z..:- D j4N.. a.E00
ALISIIU.IAI 0~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~C0 407- SpaY~~~~~~~~~m w OKoopplA J Tfl420 ] NPMCNC4 OWe 470 70 45MG Of SOaC ~ ~~4_-' - - I 3 2 3 TABLE 4
NORTHERN NIGERIA - R"AD PROJECT
Cost Estimate
in US$ I. Total Cost Cost in h equivalent 000 000 A. Road Construction
Road #3: Nlaiduguri-Kawa-Baga m 120 miles) Kawa-Kukawa 8 miles) 3,500 9,800 Road #34: Gumel-Maigatari - 14 miles 400 1,120 Road #1: Gombe-Biu 82 miles 3,000 8,400 Feeder roads in the Gombe area - 50 140
Total 224 miles L6,950 $19,460
Contingencies - 15 percent 1,050 2,9
Sub-total i8,00o $22, 400
B. Consultants
Fees for supervision of roads under (A) 350 980
C. Procurements
Equipment for laboratories, vehicle control, etc. 100 280
Total Project Cost 78,450 $23,660
II. Foreign Exchange Cost -
Constructiowncdst:-.- 65% of 8,000,000 = 65,200,000 Engineering--- 0s t. 80% of 1 350,000 - 280,000 1 Equipment cost: 100% of E 100,000 a J 100.000
Total ;5, 58O, ooo
or equivalent to US$15,5 million
III. Local Cost
;8,,50o,000 - 65,580,ooo = L2,870.000
or US$8.2 million TABLE 5
NORTHERN -TirRIA - ROAD PROJECT
Estimated operating cost for a 5-6 ton diesel truck under different road conditions
A _B 2/ C 3/ D 4
(pence per mile)
Fuel & lubricants 5.4 6.8 9.2 11.4
Tires 1.8 2.6 3.4 4.6
Repairs 2.0 2.5 4.5 4.5
Deoreciation 2.0 2.5 5.9 8.8
W4ages 1.2 1.5 2.4 3.1
Interest, insurance & overhead 4.3 4.6 6.6 8.9
16.7 20.5 32.0 41.3 Per capacity ton-mile 3.3 4.1 6.4 8.3 t If" in US¢ 3.9 4.8 7.5 9.7
24 feet bituminous surfaced road.
2/ Bituminous surfaced road of eydsting tyzpe or well maintained gravel road.
Earth road.
Ungraded sand track. . REPUBLIC O F N I G E R
.,< ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~< *~~~~~~.ECHAD. .~ J r < \ -
w~~~~~~~ 0 R tUI C 0 ; ;
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~i ElEEs- f
, > WJrl_y X RO~~~~~~~~A DU N MA P
h orhr nle 0 6.ucll~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~scoddn
hotoal road DEr~ ~ ~ ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~_____
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