with bothscarcity andabundanceofwater of .Herewith problems connected ofhydrologicalin terms conditionsparts Caucasus isoneofthemostcomplicated in relief, ofpopulationthe North highdensity Due to specific climatic conditions, contrasts 2 Ekaterina P. Rets * Corresponding author:[email protected] 1 Natalia L.Frolova Ekaterina A. TeleginaEkaterina INTRODUCTION INTRODUCTION IN THE RECENT TRENDS OF DOI-10.24057/2071-9388-2018-11-3-61-70 Vol.11, No3,p. 61-70 caucasus. Geography,trends ofriverrunoffinthenorth Environment, Sustainability, N. Durmanov, AnnaA. Telegina, A. Ekaterina Telegina, Vadim Yu. (2018)Recent Grigoriev discharge, climate change, hydrological Caucasus hazards, North basin is characteristic of9.5%analyzed gaugingbasin ischaracteristic stations. instantaneous discharge isprevalent: 38%ofgauging stations. Positive trend in river – On thecontrary, part intheEastern Terek riverbasin–negative trend inmaximum stations show positive trend inmaximuminstantaneousdischarge, while9%negative. the riverbasin30%ofanalyzed gauging (70-100%).In Western plainterritory discharge Caucasus (30-50%)to regularly grows from ofNorthern centralfoothill part factors, suchasgeological structure. The rate oftheincrease insummerminimummonthly oscillation of winterlong-term minimum monthly discharge strongly dependsonlocal of studyarea (>100%). Within thefoothills mountainousarea itamountsto 50-100%.In increase inwinter minimummonthlyrunoffisaswell mostintensive intheplainpart compared to 1945-1977by 5-30%inthefoothills andby 30-70%intheplainarea. An be causedby recent climate 1978-2010increased change. annualrunoff during Mean Caucasus thatisconsidered to ofthemostNorth natural hazard ischaracteristic Caucasus. inbothamountofwater andpotentialrevealed availability Arise intheNorth in meanannual. lastdecadeshave minimummonthlyandmaximumrunoffduring been ofmapswasdrawn. Significant out.Series changeswinter andsummerrunoffwas carried Caucasus ofpresent anevaluation valuesofmeanannualrunoff, minimummonthly Citation Key Abstract Faculty ofGeography, Lomonosov State Moscow University, Moscow, Russia. Water Problems Institute, RussianAcademy ofSciences, Moscow, Russia words : Ekaterina P. Ekaterina Rets, G.Dzhamalov, Roald B. NataliaL. Frolova, Kireeva, Maria Ivan . Based on observational datafrom 70hydrological Basedonobservational stationsintheNorth : Water resources, mean annualrunoff, minimummonthlyrunoff, maximum 1 , RoaldG.Dzhamalov 2 , Ivan N.Durmanov 1 , Vadim, Yu.Grigoriev RIVER RUNOFF 1 , Anna A. Telegina 1 , Maria B., Maria Kireeva 28 000km (258 Caucasus regionthe total area oftheNorth et al. 2003),whereasriver basins(Grishenko the corresponding valuefor Volga andAmur etal. 2003). (Grishenko That isalmostequalto Caucasus amountsto 700mlnUSD the North annual damagecausedby riverfloodingin resources ofthisregion. ischaracteristic Mean 1 2 ) is5times lessthenthe Volga 1 2 , ,

61 Environment 62 Environment hnteAu ie ai 1 5 000km 855 than theAmurriverbasin(1 ie ai 1 6 000km 360 river basin(1 GEOGRAPHY, In the beginning of the 21 In periods. here low-flow during occasionally observed are Severe waterof irrigation. shortages agricultural regions inRussiawithhighlevel Caucasus isoneofthemostimportant oftheNorth The foothill andlowland part outburstfloods.avalanches andglacierlakes in thisregion, flows, suchasdebris snow hazardousother various naturalprocesses melting wave. about bring The samefactors by rainfall onintensive impositionofheavy andare period usuallyarousedspring-summer the Caucasus during intheNorth are observed year) 2008).Floods (SemenovandKorshunov dangerous floodsoccurrence (from 1 a to 20 Caucasus of isalsoleadinginterms The North study ofwater Caucasus resources inNorth However, the lastthorough andgeneralized study region aswell. are provided for somegauging stationsinthe (2011),maximumriverdischarges Melnikova of theNorth-West Caucasus were analyzed by formationrivers ofthemaximum runoffinthe is given 2010). in (Melnikova The conditions of for riverbasinfor Kuban 1967–2008 theperiod and mean annual runoff mapping elevation dependencies ofmeanannualrunoffon ofriverbasin.Regional levels oncharacteristics minimum monthlyrunoffandmaximumwater basin anddependenciesofmeanannual main features ofwater regime in Terek river (2010)providesand Kireeva information on Caucasus according to Lvovich method. Rets Caucasus, calculates water balanceinNorth conditions ofriverrunoff intheNorth forming a thorough ofphysic-geographical description analyzed by different authors. (2002) Lurie gives Caucasus were recently ofNorth parts certain componentsofhydrologicalSome regime in 2008). 2012; Seynova and Kononova 2010; Malneva and Kireeva Rets 2008; Bazeluk andLurie etal. 2014;Rets 2016; (Frolova etal. 2017,Semenov andKorshunov usually associated withrecent climate change theprevioushigher thenduring years thatis Caucasus wassubstantially processes inNorth ofdangerousand intensity hydrological ENVIRONMENT, th 2 century frequency frequency century ) and 7 times less ) and7timesless SUSTAINABILITY 2 ). ). river basin(7330km km basin (43 200 km basin (43 200 and minimummonthly discharges timeseries. the statisticalheterogeneity inmeanannual Fisher andStudent test were usedto reveal river runoff and maximum annual discharges. ofannual. minimum main characteristics statistically significant directed changesin mathematical statisticswere usedto reveal and Terek basins respectively. of Methods 23 and 21 hydrological stations in the Kuban data for from theperiod 1920sto 2015from discharge trends wasbasedoninstantaneous 2010 (Fig. 1). The analysisofmaximumannual 70 hydrological stations for 1945- theperiod summer unitdischarges were estimated for annual.Mean minimummonthlywinter and the Kuban river basin (57 900 km river basin (57 900 the Kuban Caucasus are The mainriverbasinsinNorth distinguished notfor all riversoftheregion. melting, thoughsnow meltingfloodcanbe Caucasus basinissnow andice water inNorth Caucasus. The overall mainsource ofriver great differencesriver inflow regime inNorth ofclimatewith altidudinal zonality results in greatly through theregion thiscombined ofprecipitationAnnual distribution differs plateau).maximum of 3242 mm (Achishkho withthe 1300 andmore inmountainouspart 600-800 mmin toWestern 800- plainpart and from plainpart 400-600mminEastern Annualprecipitation elevation. sumvaries both southeastwardsandwithadecrease in continental. The precipitation decreases –28 to 5642m. The climate here ismoderate Caucasus. ofthebasinrangesfrom Elevation which heightisapproximately 2000minNorth zone above extends theorographic snowline inthesouth. mountainous part The alpine foothills and onthenorth, plain territory canbedividedinto three parts: of Russia.It borderon the southern of European territory area ofmore then350000km Caucasus regionThe withthetotal North trends inmainrunoffcharacteristics. for andreveal period themodern present-day reassess riverwater Caucasus resources inNorth 1973). Consequently, itisofcurrent interest to as wholedates backto the70s(Resources… STUDY AREA AND METHODS 2 ), Sulak river basin (15 200 km ), Sulakriverbasin(15 200 2 ), Kuma river basin (33 500 riverbasin(33 500 ), Kuma 2 ). ). 03 (11)2018 2 2 2 ) and Samur ) andSamur ), Terek river issituated 2010) adecrease inairtemperature ofwinter Polyana vicinity. andKireeva thestudy(Rets In close to andintheKrasnaya theCaspian Sea Caucasus, in the Eastern isobserved period significantrise inair temperature of winter trend. Toropov etal. (2018)claimastatistically statisticallyinsignificant positive (2014) report etal inhomogeneous:Alekseev are very tendencies inairtemperature the observed andfoothills. winter period In in plainterritory ismore clearcut 2010)thistendency Kireeva to 0.7–1°С/10years. According to and (Rets intheregionthe summerperiod amounting positive trend in inairtemperature isobserved 2010)astatisticallysignificant and Kireeva (Alekseev etal. 2014; Toropov etal. 2018;Rets outlined. According ofstudies to themajority 2018). However, somemainfeatures canbe throughout the study region (Toropov et al. are appearto benothomogeneous Tendencies inmainclimaticcharacteristics river runoffcharacteristics. of by analysisofdifference-integrating curves period. The threshold year (1978)wasdetected and theirchangecompared to theprevious period runoff characteristics for themodern reassessment of annual and minimum river ofmapshaveSeries beendrawn covering the coefficient with5%significance level. tested usingSpearman’s rankorder correlation The trends in maximum discharges were Ekaterina P. Rets, G.Dzhamalov Roald etal. CAUCASUS RECENT CLIMATE CHANGE IN NORTH characteristics ofmean annualand minimummonthly unit discharge were calculated F ig. Caucasus 1.Spatial for distributionof river which basinsintheNorth by 12.6% during 1970–2000 (Voitkovskiy et et 1970–2000(Voitkovskiy by 12.6%during Caucasus dropped of glaciers in the North al. 2015;Shahgedanova etal. 2014). The area Caucasus (Zemp et in the North observed The intensive degradation of glaciation is et al. 2018). (Toropov kraj in steppe regions ofKrasnodarky shore isdetected ontheBlackSea period and sum andprecipitation inwinter intensity 2010).Decrease inprecipitationand Kireeva Caucasus (Rets ofNorthern of thecentralpart of mountainousstationandanumberfoothill precipitation sumwasrevealed for themost (Toropov etal. 2018).Anincrease inannual to 0.5mm/day per10years isobserved significantrise inprecipitation up intensity thesameregionet al. 2014).In astatistically Caucasus closeto (Alekseev theCaspian Sea ofNorth part oftheEastern characteristic positive trend inannualprecipitation is distinct andautumn.Most mostly inspring inprecipitation rise etal.Alekseev (2014)report (Toropov etal. 2018). the mostofterritory no staticallysignificant trend for isobserved sum (5%/10years (Alekseev etal. 2014),or either positive trend inannual precipitation et al. 2018).According to different studies (Toropovdiffer to a great seasonally extent tendencies inprecipitation characteristics complicated inthelast30-40years. Observed Caucasus have beenmultidirectional and Tendencies inprecipitation sumsintheNorth Caucasus. of theNorth wasrevealedperiod inthemountainouspart Recent

trends of river ...

63 Environment 64 Environment during last3decades:ithasincreasedduring by 30- changesinannualrunoff occurred evident down to zero andeven less. Here themost direction decrease gradually intheNortheast rivers:runoff of the values of unit discharge notaddmuchto thetotalvast plainterritories declinesto 5-15litres/(s*sq.km). sharply The the foothills meanannual runoffunitdischarge fromvaries 20-30to In 50-60litres/(s*sq.km). Caucasus annualunitdischarge of theNorth high precipitation rate. themostalpine zone In range where localclimaticconditionsresult ina of the Westernof the Caucasian mountain part slopes onthesouthern isobserved (s*sq.km)) of meanannualunitdischarge (60-70litres/ (Fig.increase inaridity 2). The maximumvalue andfrom to Northeast West to Eastwiththe the decrease from inelevation Southwest annualriver runoffrate decreasesMean with ch). to -1.03mw.e./yr in2010-2015(www.wgms. year) in 1966-2003(Shahgedanova et al. 2007) -0.13 mw.e./yr (meters ofwater equivalentper rates of ice Mean mass loss increased from Caucasus, glacier. Djankuat oftheNorth part measurements onrepresentative ofthecentral the region isreflected inmass-balance the last decadein of deglaciationduring 1970–2012.Asubstantial intensification during amounting to approximately 17%intotal 2010/2012 (Shahgedanova etal. 2014), al. 2004),andby 2000and 4.7%between GEOGRAPHY, ANNUAL W F ig. Caucasus 2.Spatial distributionof mean annualunitdischarge intheNorth (averaged for 1978-2010),anditschange compared to theprevious ATERRESOURCES ENVIRONMENT, SUSTAINABILITY period (1945-1977) Western part of North Caucasus. Hence, no ofNorth Western part precipitation of the maximum is characteristic winter andsummerlow-flow periods. Winter that results and both in summer flood period precipitation occurs mostly in summer territory Caucasian plain North central andEastern the ofprecipitation.on annualdistribution In depends situated mostlyintheplainterritory Annual water regime of rivers withwatersheds interruptedoften by snowmelt winter floods. discharges, winter low ismore flow period playing amore substantialrole inmaximum dates, to earlier shifts rainfloodsstart periods beginning of high-water and winter low-flow river runoffdiminishes, simultaneously, the of riverwatershed theshare ofsnowmelt in 2017b). With adecrease of meanelevation and stablewinter etal. low-flow (Rets period lasting from upto late September spring are by characterized ahigh-water period structure snowfield meltin nourishment substantial share ofglacialandhigh-elevation runoff regime etal.Rivers (Rets a with 2017a). structure and, consequently, annualriver results ingreat differences river innourishment Contrasts in climaticconditionstheregion stable. meanvalueonannualrunoff term remains Caucasus thelong- oftheNorth part Eastern theorographicalyIn highestareas andinthe canbe observed. a slightpositive tendency 70%. only Whereas inthemountainouspart MINIMUM RUNOFF PERIOD 03 (11)2018 Ekaterina P. Rets, Roald G. Dzhamalov et al. Recent trends of river ... winter low-flow period is observed here. connected with geological structure. Also a maximum in Western mountainous part (20- Summing up, a winter low-flow period is 30 litres/(s*sq.km) is raised by closeness to the observed on the most of territory of North territory with prevailing winter precipitation. Caucasus (except for the utmost Western Summer minimum monthly unit discharge part) (Fig. 3). Summer low-flow period is is also correspondingly maximum in the characteristic only of Northern and Eastern neighboring area. part (Fig. 4). Winter and summer minimum monthly unit discharges are practically equal A dramatic rise in minimum monthly E nvironment in central Northern are (from 0-1 to 1-2 discharges (both for winter and summer) litres/(s*sq.km). Summer low flow period is is characteristic for the study area. The 65 higher then winter in central foothills (2-7 peculiarities of modern climate bring about compared to 2-5 litres/(s*sq.km). Distribution the increase in amount, duration and extent of winter minimum monthly unit discharge of thaws and general reduction of annual cold in mountainous part is not so even, that is period duration in region. These tendencies

Fig. 3. Spatial distribution of winter minimum monthly unit discharge in the North Caucasus (averaged for 1978-2010), and its change compared to the previous period (1945-1977)

Fig. 4. Spatial distribution of summer minimum monthly unit discharge in the North Caucasus (averaged for 1978-2010), and its change compared to the previous period (1945-1977) GEOGRAPHY, ENVIRONMENT, SUSTAINABILITY 03 (11) 2018

lead to a decrease in soil freezing depth, TRENDS IN MAXIMUM registered on agrometeorological stations in RIVER DISCHARGES all regions of European Russia. Groundwater resources have been significantly more The water-abundant period is observed replenished during last decades compared to from April/May to September in the North previous period due to melt water losses on Caucasus. The fundamental wave or the runoff infiltration (Kireeva et al. 2015). A respective hydrograph, formed by snow and ice melting increase in winter minimum monthly is overlain with sharp peaks of rain floods that

E nvironment discharge is most intensive in the North of usually form annual maximums of discharges. study area (>100 %) (Fig. 3). Within the foothills Maximum river discharges are usually 66 it amounts to 50-100%. In mountainous area associated with flood hazard (Shiklomanov long-term oscillation of winter minimum et al. 2007; Frolova et al. 2017). However, monthly discharge strongly depends on tendencies in maximum water level tendency local factors, such as geological structure. which results in out-of-bank flow does not In the upper reaches of some tributaries of always correlate with tendencies of maximum Terek and Kuban river positive trends are discharge in North Caucasus, owing to still not observed, while in neighboring sedimentation processes and anthropogenic macrovalleys long-term variations of winter factors (Rets and Kireeva 2010; Frolova et al. minimum monthly discharges correlate with 2017; Vishnevskaya et al. 2016; Kotlyakov et the corresponding variations in the foothills al. 2016). Accordingly, changes in maximum and on plain. However, a decrease in positive river runoff can be referred to as climatic tendency rate is observed throughout the prerequisites of modification of present- study area with movement from plain to alpine day flood hazard. Maximum annual river zone. On the highest elevation belts, where discharges tend to increase in the Western part the temperature is still strongly negative in of the North Caucasus. In Kuban river basin 7 winter for frequent thaws generation, winter of 23 (30%) analyzed time-series show positive minimum monthly discharge remains stable trend in maximum instantaneous discharge at on the long-term scale. In the most arid 5% significance level (Table 1), while 2 of 23 Southeastern part of study area the negative (9%) – negative. On the contrary, in the Eastern trend in precipitation result in decrease of part – Terek river basin (Table 2) – negative minimum monthly discharges by 15−30%. trend in maximum instantaneous discharge is prevalent: 8 of 21 (38%) of time series. Positive The rate of the increase in summer minimum trend in Terek river basin is characteristic of monthly discharge regularly grows from 9.5% of analyzed gauging stations (2 of 21). central foothill part of Northern Caucasus (30- 50%) to the Western plain territory (70-100%) (Fig. 4). Table 1. Statistically significant trends in maximum river discharges in Kuban river basin revealed by Spearman test River Gauging station p-value Observed trend Kuban Kosta Hetagurova 0.012 positive Kuban Armavir 0.288 none Kuban st. Ladozhskaya 0.124 none Ullu-Kam aul Hurzuk 0.236 none Teberda Teberda 0.540 none Maruha Maruha 0.112 none Nevinka h. Ust-Nevinskij 0.380 none Bolshoj Zelenchuk st. Zelenchukskaya 0.002 positive Urup st. Udobnaya 0.950 none Urup h. Steblitskij 0.093 none Ekaterina P. Rets, Roald G. Dzhamalov et al. Recent trends of river ...

Laba h. Doguzhiev 0.000 positive Malaya Laba s. Burnoe 0.003 positive nizhe Aziatskogo mosta 0.004 positive Fars st. Dondukovskaya 0.009 positive Belaya pgt Kamenomostskij 0.036 negative Dah st. Dahovskaya 0.029 negative E nvironment Kurdzhips st. Nizhegorodskaya 0.982 none 67 Psekups Goryachij Kluch 0.116 none Afips st. Smolenskaya 0.044 positive Shebsh s. Shabanovskoe 0.253 none Ubinka st. Severskaya 0.374 none Adegoj st. Shapsugskaya 0.867 none Adagum Krimsk 0.429 none

Table 2. Statistically significant trends in maximum river discharges in Terek river basin revealed by Spearman test

River Gauging station p-value Observed trend

Terek Vladikavkaz 0.025 negative Terek Kotlyarevskaya 0.251 none Terek Stepnoe 0.023 negative Ardon Tamisk 0.363 none Tseya Buron 0.003 negative Fiagdon Tagardon 0.461 none Gizeldon Dargavs 0.002 positive Kambileyevka Ol'ginskoye 0.050 negative Belaya Kora-Urusdon 0.000 negative Malka Kamennomostskoye 0.535 none Malka Prokhladnaya 0.013 negative Baksan Zayukovo 0.033 negative Chegem Nizhny Chegem 0.172 none Cherek Kashkhatau 0.165 none Cherek Balkarsky Babugent 0.174 none Nalchik Belaya rechka 0.000 negative Karabulak 0.941 none Sunzha Grozny 0.025 positive Assa Nesterovskaya 0.893 none Fortanga Bamut 0.642 none Belka Gudermes 0.151 none GEOGRAPHY, ENVIRONMENT, SUSTAINABILITY 03 (11) 2018

CONCLUSION detected. Positive trend in maximum runoff is observed for one third of gauging stations in A directed increase in mean annual river runoff Kuban river basin that can be interpreted as a and summer minimum monthly discharge is favorable climatic background for an increase observed in North Caucasus. The main reason in flood hazard. An opposite tendency is of increase in water abundance of winter observed in Terek river basin for almost 40% period is more often winter thawing due to of the gauging stations. It is an urgent need overall warming of the winter period. The most for the local economy to adapt to the new E nvironment pronounces changes occurred in the western conditions. part of the plain territory. In mountainous 68 part, especially in the areas of certain ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS geological structures expansion, the analyzed characteristics of river runoff remain stable. In This work was supported by the Russian the most arid Southeastern part a decrease Science Foundation (project no. 17-77-10169). in river runoff during low-flow periods is

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Received on November 15th, 2017 Accepted on July 31st, 2018 E nvironment

70 First/corresponding author

ElenaEkaterina V. Trofimova, P. Rets is aPhD, Research is Senior Scientist Researcher at the of Water the Institute Problems of GeographyInstitute of theof the Russian Russian Academy Academy of ofScience, Sciences. PhD Karst in Geography. and caves areHer atresearch the focus interests of her explorations.are mountain She hydrology, is the author hydrological of more thanmodeling 100 scientific in alpine regions,publications. water resources under the impact of climate change, and isotopic methods in mountain hydrology. She does a lot of field study in different mountainous regions. Hydrological observations in Djankuat glaciological station have been carried out under her supervision (in collaboration with Maria Kreeva) since 2007. She is an author of A-Melt hydrological model. She has published more than 15 peer-reviewed articles, is co-author of 3 books, including the Atlas “Modern resources of underground and surface waters of the European part of Russia: formation, distribution, use”. She is a member of FRIEND Low Flow and Drought Group.