An Exploration of the Origins, Composition, and Influence of the Tea Party Bryce Don Summary University of Missouri-St

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An Exploration of the Origins, Composition, and Influence of the Tea Party Bryce Don Summary University of Missouri-St University of Missouri, St. Louis IRL @ UMSL Dissertations UMSL Graduate Works 8-2-2013 Reading the Tea Leaves: An Exploration of the Origins, Composition, and Influence of the Tea Party Bryce Don Summary University of Missouri-St. Louis, [email protected] Follow this and additional works at: https://irl.umsl.edu/dissertation Part of the Political Science Commons Recommended Citation Summary, Bryce Don, "Reading the Tea Leaves: An Exploration of the Origins, Composition, and Influence of the Tea Party" (2013). Dissertations. 298. https://irl.umsl.edu/dissertation/298 This Dissertation is brought to you for free and open access by the UMSL Graduate Works at IRL @ UMSL. It has been accepted for inclusion in Dissertations by an authorized administrator of IRL @ UMSL. For more information, please contact [email protected]. Reading the Tea Leaves: An Exploration of the Origins, Composition, and Influence of the Tea Party by Bryce Don Summary M.A., Political Science, University of Missouri - St. Louis, 2010 B.A., Political Science, Eastern Illinois University, 2004 A Dissertation Submitted to The Graduate School at the University of Missouri–St. Louis in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree Doctor of Philosophy in Political Science July 2013 Advisory Committee David Kimball, Ph.D. Chair E. Terrence Jones, Ph.D. David Robertson, Ph.D. Nancy Kinney, Ph.D. Acknowledgements This dissertation could not have been completed without the assistance from a variety of different sources. I would like to thank the College of Arts of Sciences for the dissertation research award that I received in 2011-2012. I would also like to thank the Department of Political Science at the University of Missouri-St. Louis for the Assistantship Awards that I received over the course of four years, as well as the department dissertation research award that I received in 2011. These funds helped to make my education and dissertation possible and for that I am very grateful. I am also grateful for the guidance provided by my dissertation adviser Dr. David Kimball. Dr. Kimball offered thoughtful advice and encouragement throughout my dissertation writing process and served as an invaluable mentor and friend. I would also like to thank all of the members of my committee David Kimball, Terry Jones, Dave Robertson, and Nancy Kinney, for their comments and questions which helped to greatly improve my dissertation. Finally, I would like to thank my family and friends for their love and support. First, I would like to thank my parents for the sacrifices that they have made throughout their life which made the attainment of my educational goals possible. Second, I would like to thank my sister Jennifer who encouraged me to attend graduate school and whose guidance and support over the years has made me into the person I am today. Third, I would like to thank my Aunt Becky for reading my dissertation and offering constructive criticisms, as well as love and support. Last, but not least, I would like to thank Amy for her positivity and encouragement that helped me through the ups and downs of dissertation writing, as it was her unwavering support, that made this research endeavor possible. Abstract The Tea Party has become a powerful force in American politics. Emerging in early 2009, the Tea Party has elicited mass support among the public with important implications for public policy and electoral politics. However, there remains significant debate over the political characteristics and motivations of Tea Party supporters. The emergence of the Tea Party has also led to speculation that supporters will form a third party. Using survey data collected in 2010 and 2011, this dissertation examines the relationship between Tea Party and third party supporters. Evidence is found that although Tea Party and third party supporters disapprove of President Obama and hold negative views of the economy, the two groups are fundamentally different in terms of their partisanship and political attitudes. Tea Party supporters are found to be ideologically conservative Republicans, while third party supporters are shown to be political independents holding negative opinions of both parties. Using American National Election Studies data, this dissertation also explains the motivations behind Tea Party support. Evidence is found that Tea Party support is motivated by traditional moral values, racial resentment, negative views of President Obama, negative opinions of immigrants, and libertarianism. This dissertation also examines the emotional component of Tea Party support finding that strong feelings of anger and fear, related to perceptions of the state of the country, motivates support. Finally, this dissertation analyzes an aggregation of public opinion data measuring opinions of the Tea Party from 2010 to 2011. Support for the Tea Party is found to have declined from 2010 through the end of 2011, with the most precipitous decline occurring among its most ardent supporters. Ultimately, the findings of this dissertation suggest that the emergence of the Tea Party has created a rift within the Republican Party between the moderate and ideologically extreme elements, constituting a barrier to legislative compromise. 1 Table of Contents Chapter 1: Reading the Tea Leaves 8 Research Questions 10 The Tea Party Emerges 11 Tea Party Support as a “Movement” 13 Popular Accounts of Tea Party Support 14 Third Party and Tea Party Support 16 Hypothesis 1 17 Hypothesis 2 18 Attitudes Shaping Partisan Identities 18 Tea Party Scholarship 20 Hypothesis 3 23 Hypothesis 4 23 Hypothesis 5 23 Hypothesis 6 24 Hypothesis 7 24 Chapter Overview 24 Chapter 2 24 Chapter 3 25 Chapter 4 25 Chapter 5 26 Chapter 2: Examining the relationship between Tea Party and third party support 27 The Specter of the Tea Party as a Third Party 28 The Tea Party as a Response to Major Party Failures 31 Do Tea Party Supporters Desire a Third Party Option? 37 Brief History of the Influence of Third Parties in America 38 The Impact of Third Parties on the Major Parties 39 The Dynamic of Third Parties 40 Examining the Tea Party in the Context of a Third Party 41 Predictors of Third Party Support 43 A General Theory of Third Party Voting 45 Comparing Tea Party and Third Party Support 47 Socio-Economic and Demographic Characteristics 48 Political Attitudes 49 Method 51 Third Party Predictors 53 Tea Party Predictors 55 Results 57 Model 1 57 Model 2 58 Model 3 59 Model 4 60 Model 5 61 2 Model 6 62 Discussion 62 Conclusions and Ramifications 65 Chapter 3: Exploring the attitudinal predictors of Tea Party support 84 Shaping Partisan Attitudes 86 Examining the Tea Party: The Big Picture 90 Predictors of Tea Party Support 92 Tea Party Support: A Preliminary Look 96 A Republican Party Divided 99 Methodology 100 Measuring Tea Party Support 100 Predicting Tea Party Support 100 Predicting Tea Party Support: October 2010 101 Predicting Tea Party Support: February 2012 105 Results 107 Tea Party Support and Views of President Obama 114 and the Democrats Tea Party Support and Civic Engagement 115 Conclusions 118 Chapter 4: Declining public support for the Tea Party 144 Controversies in Survey Administration 145 The “Right” Way to Ask (or word) a Question 145 Including a Middle Response to Survey Questions 150 Branching and Survey Responses 152 Survey House Effects 153 The Many Ways to Measure Opinions of the Tea Party 153 Measuring Tea Party Support: Favorability and Support Briefly 154 Methodology: Creating the Four Aggregate Measures of Tea Party 155 Opinions Control Variables 157 The Case for Four Measures of Tea Party Opinions 160 Empirical Findings 161 Measuring Public Opinion over Time: Support for the Tea Party 165 Predicted Support 167 Measuring Public Opinion over Time: Favorable Opinions 168 of the Tea Party Predicted Favorability 169 Measuring Public Opinion over Time: Is the Public More 170 Aware of the Tea Party? Discussion and Conclusions 174 Appendix 196 3 Chapter 5: Implications of the Tea Party for American politics 205 Chapter 2 and 3 Reviews and Key Findings 206 Chapter 4 Review and Key Findings 210 A Rift within the Republican Party 211 Criticism of the Tea Party by Moderate Republican Elites 213 The Tea Party, Public Policy, and Opposition to Compromise 214 The Tea Party and Ideological Polarization 217 The Tea Party, the 2012 Elections, and Beyond 217 What does the Tea Party Mean for American Politics? 219 References 222 4 Tables Table 2.1: Tea Party Supporters vs. Third Party Supporters (August 2010) Table 2.2: Tea Party Supporters vs. Third Party Supporters (April 2011) Table 2.3: Predictors of Tea Party and Third Party Support (August 2010) Table 2.4: Predictors of Tea Party and Third Party Support (April 2011) Table 2.5: Ideology among Tea Party, Third Party, Republicans and Electorate Table 2.6: Motivation to Vote among Tea Party, Third Party, Republicans and Electorate Table 2.7: Support for Political Figures among Tea Party, Third Party, Republicans and Electorate Table 2.8: Variable Coding August 2010 Data Table 2.9: Variable Coding April 2011 Data Table 3.1: Characteristics of Tea Party, Non- Tea Party Republicans, and U.S Electorate Table 3.2: Characteristics of Tea Party, Non- Tea Party Republicans, and U.S Electorate Table 3.3: Predictors of Tea Party Support Table 3.4: Predictors of Tea Party Support Table 3.5: Ideological Placement of Democrats and Obama by Group, October 2010 Table 3.6: Ideological Placement of Democrats and Obama by Group, February 2012 Table 3.7: Political Activities by
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