27 July 2018 Hong Kong

EQUITIES Fu Shou Yuan

1448 HK Outperform Short-term pain, long-term gain Price (at 13:01, 25 Jul 2018 GMT) HK$8.53

Valuation HK$ 10.00 Key points - DCF (WACC 9.0%, beta 0.9, ERP 7.0%, RFR 3.0%, We see a moderate pace in 1H18 due to sales channel restructure TGR 2.0%)  12-month target HK$ 10.00  We expect sales growth to pick up in 2H18 and reiterate OP with new TP of Upside/Downside % +17.2 HK$10.00 12-month TSR % +18.4  FSY to be key beneficiary of mkt discipline policies in the long run

Volatility Index Low/Medium GICS sector Consumer Services Conclusion Market cap HK$m 18,832  We expect FSY to release 1H18 results in late Aug. We now see a moderate Market cap US$m 2,400 pace in 1H18 (i.e. Rev/NP up +9%/+13%YoY) vs. our previous forecast, Free float % 37 mainly due to mgmt’s effort to raise direct sales contribution, thus leading to 30-day avg turnover US$m 6.7 lower sales volume in the near term. Number shares on issue m 2,208  That said, we expect sales growth to recover in 2H18 (i.e. Rev/NP up +23%/ Investment fundamentals +31%YoY), with margin improvement due to less commission payout to Year end 31 Dec 2017A 2018E 2019E 2020E agents. Our LT investment thesis remains intact (see below). We reiterate OP Revenue m 1,477.2 1,710.5 2,090.1 2,457.5 on FSY (TP lowered to HK$10.00 vs. previous HK$11.00), still a street high. EBIT m 700.0 798.3 976.9 1,150.3 EBIT growth % 23.9 14.0 22.4 17.8 Impact Reported profit m 417.4 505.8 625.5 743.0 Adjusted profit m 417.4 505.8 625.5 743.0  Burial service (88% of Rev) volume dragged by restructure. FSY started EPS rep Rmb 0.19 0.23 0.28 0.33 restructuring sales channels early this year, further reducing its reliance on EPS rep growth % 22.8 17.4 23.1 18.8 EPS adj Rmb 0.19 0.23 0.28 0.33 third-party sales agents (~20% of cemetery sales in 2017) while enhancing its EPS adj growth % 22.9 17.3 23.1 18.8 in-house sales force. Looking forward, this channel restructure could benefit PER rep x 38.1 32.5 26.4 22.2 PER adj x 38.1 32.5 26.4 22.2 FSY in two ways: 1) saving commission paid to third-party sales agents Total DPS Rmb 0.06 0.07 0.09 0.10 (normally ~4.5% of sales value), supporting margin expansion; and Total div yield % 0.9 0.9 1.2 1.4 2) enhance FSY’s price discipline and improve execution with better quality. ROA % 16.3 16.0 17.2 17.8 ROE % 15.0 15.4 16.7 17.6  Funeral service (11% of Rev) to accelerate. FSY’s M&A in funeral house EV/EBITDA x 18.0 16.4 13.6 11.7 operations is accelerating, evidenced by its funeral service contracts with Net debt/equity % -49.2 -56.3 -62.2 -67.3 P/BV x 5.2 4.6 4.1 3.6 Gaoyou (Jiangsu), Huaibei (Anhui), Tai’an (Shandong), Ningde (Fujian), Lujiang County of Hefei (Anhui) and Xiaoxian of Hangzhou (Zhejiang) since 1448 HK rel HSI performance, & rec history 2017. Thus, we expect the funeral segment to enjoy a 23% revenue CAGR to 2020E (vs. 18% of total revenue) on the back of M&A acceleration. On the ASP side, FSY’s geographical expansion into lower-tier cities could lead to lower ASPs, thus increasing margin pressure.  FSY to be key beneficiary of policies in long-run. First, we believe the China death-care industry will undergo structural changes in the near to medium term ,with government’s aim to establish a national basic funeral public service system and to provide basic and affordable death care services by SOEs, leaving more room for private companies in the premium segment, Note: Recommendation timeline - if not a continuous line, then there was no Macquarie coverage at the time or there was an embargo period. in our view. Second, we expect SOEs to gradually quit the industry Source: FactSet, Macquarie Research, July 2018 (all figures in Rmb unless noted, TP in HKD) operationally in the medium to long run, as the central government has

advocated (管办分离). We believe the recent market discipline policy could be Macquarie Governance and Risk Score (MGRS) On our proprietary Governance and Risk Score Fu a key catalyst (link). Shou Yuan scores in the second quartile of our current universe coverage. Earnings and target price revision

 NP -7%/-7% for FY18E/FY19E. TP cut to HK$10 from HK$11. Analysts Price catalyst Macquarie Capital Limited

Zibo Chen, CFA +852 3922 1130  12-month price target: HK$10.00 based on a DCF methodology. [email protected]  Catalyst: 1H18 result; new M&A announced; mkt discipline policies

Mark Yao +852 3922 4684 Action and recommendation [email protected]

 Reiterate Outperform.

Please refer to page 9 for important disclosures and analyst certification, or on our website www.macquarie.com/research/disclosures.

Macquarie Research Fu Shou Yuan

Fig 1 Good track record on consolidation Type Projects Announced Completed Total Area Capital Spent Acq. exp/sq.m. % Acquired (sq.m) (RMBm) (RMB)

2014 M&A Chongqing Baita Yuan Jun-14 Aug-14 306,212 111 602 60% M&A Liaoning Guanlingshan Jun-14 Jan-15 2,329,333 279 171 70% M&A Meilin Century n.a Dec-14 65,460 65 993 100% M&A Shanting Xingtai Dec-14 Nov-16 266,664 60 224 100% M&A Wanshoushan Lingyuan Dec-14 Feb-15 164,000 49 401 75% Sub total 2,269,384 564 249

2015 M&A Henan Anyang Tianshouyuan May-15 Jun-15 65,733 42 806 80% M&A Changzhou Qifengshan Oct-15 Dec-15 85,333 184 2,695 80% Sub total 120,853 226 1,873

2016 M&A Luoyang Xianhe Sep-16 Jan-17 26,000 58 2,769 80% Sub total 20,800 58 2,769

2017 M&A Guangxi Huazu Yuan Sep-17 Nov-17 66,667 46 684 60% PPP Qinzhou Huazu Yuan Sep-17 Nov-17 n.a 18 n.a 60% M&A Temshine n.a Aug-17 n.a 16 n.a 51% Sub total 40,000 79 684

In Progress BOT Jiangsu Dafeng Funeral Home Jun-15 N/A 13 N/A JV with govt-operated funeral home for 50 yrs BOT Shandong Taian Project Jan-16 173,333 100 577 65% JV with Qiujiadian Gov for 35 yrs BOT Chongqing Bishan Project Feb-16 225,333 100 444 51% JV with Bishan Gov for 50 yrs PPP Anhui Xuanchen Mashan Sep-16 340,668 83 n.a n.a BOT Jiangsu Gaoyou Apr-17 n.a n.a n.a Provide exclusively funeral services for 30 years M&A Liaoning Guanlingshan Feb-18 2,329,333 120 258 20% M&A Helingeer County Anyou May-4 n.a n.a n.a 100% at Rmb108 mn Ecological Memorial Cemetery Sub total 1,205,201 416 345 Total completed & in 3,656,238 1,343 367 progress Source: Macquarie Research, July 2018

Earnings revision We cut our FY18E and FY19E revenue estimates by 8% and 8%, respectively, to factor in (1) flat ASP in FY18 and a 10% ASP hike in FY19 (vs. ~15% we previously forecast); and (2) lower than expected cemetery sales volume (in 1H18) due to sales channel restructure. We now expect FY18E and FY19E revenue to grow 16% YoY and 22% YoY to Rmb1.7bn and Rmb2.1bn, respectively. Correspondingly, we raise our FY18E and FY19E NP margin assumptions by 36bps and 37bps to 29.6% and 29.9%, respectively, mainly thanks to FSY’s continuously effective SG&A expense control improvement (i.e. SG&A expense down from 43.9% as of total sales in 2014 to 36.8% in 2017).

As such, we cut our NP forecasts by 7% and 7% for FY18E and FY19E, respectively.

Fig 2 We cut our NP forecasts for FY18/19E by 7%/7% HK$ m Macquarie(old) Macquarie New forecast vs. old (%) Overall FY18 FY19 FY20 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY18 FY19 FY20 Revenue 1,863 2,276 2,676 1,711 2,090 2,457 -8% -8% -8% SG&A 689 842 990 624 763 897 -9% -9% -9% NP 543 670 797 506 626 743 -7% -7% -7% NP margin 29.1% 29.5% 29.8% 29.6% 29.9% 30.2% 36bps 37bps 37bps EPS 0.25 0.31 0.37 0.23 0.28 0.34 -7% -7% -7% TP 11.00 10.00 -9% Source: Macquarie Research, July 2018

27 July 2018 2 Macquarie Research Fu Shou Yuan

Fig 3 Our NP forecasts for FY18/19E are 4%/3% below consensus RMB m Consensus Macquarie MQ vs. Consensus (%) Overall FY18 FY19 FY20 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY18 FY19 FY20

Revenue 1,820 2,208 2,701 1,711 2,090 2,457 -6% -5% -9% Gross Margin 80.7% 81.1% 80.5% 79.2% 79.2% 79.3% -148bps -186bps -119bps EBITDA 971 1,186 1,324 882 1,061 1,235 -9% -11% -7% EBIT 824 1,025 1,248 798 977 1,150 -3% -5% -8% NP 526 643 774 506 626 743 -4% -3% -4% EPS 0.24 0.30 0.35 0.23 0.28 0.33 -7% -5% -5% Source: Macquarie Research, July 2018

Fig 4 Gross Profit, EBITDA and margins (RMBm) Fig 5 Net Profit and margin (RMBm)

2,500 90% 800

80% 700 30% 2,000 70% 600 60% 1,500 500 50% 25% 40% 400 1,000 30% 300 20% 20% 500 200 10% 100 0 0% 2016 2017 2018E 2019E 2020E 0 15% 2016 2017 2018E 2019E 2020E Gross Profit EBITDA GP Margin EBITDA Margin Net profit NP Margin

Source: Company data, Macquarie Research, July 2018 Source: Company data, Macquarie Research, July 2018

Fig 6 GP and margin of burial services (RMBm) Fig 7 GP and margin of funeral services (RMBm)

2,000 90% 200 66% 180 1,600 160 85% 140 1,200 120 80% 100 64% 800 80 60 75% 400 40 20 0 70% 0 62% 2016 2017 2018E 2019E 2020E 2016 2017 2018E 2019E 2020E

GP of Burial Services GP Margin of Burial Services GP of Funeral Services GP Margin of Funeral Services

Source: Company data, Macquarie Research, July 2018 Source: Company data, Macquarie Research, July 2018

27 July 2018 3 Macquarie Research Fu Shou Yuan

Fig 8 FCF and Net Cash (RMBm) Fig 9 Revenue breakdown by region (RMBm)

3,000 2,752 1,600

2,410 1,400 2,500 2,106 1,200

2,000 1,772 1,000 800 1,500 1,071 600 1,000 400 532 529 408 457 200 500 310 0 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 0 2016 2017 2018E 2019E 2020E Shanghai Henan Chongqing Anhui Shandong FCF Net Cash Liaoning Jiangxi Fujian Zhejiang Jiangsu

Source: Company data, Macquarie Research, July 2018 Source: Company data, Macquarie Research, July 2018

27 July 2018 4 Macquarie Research Fu Shou Yuan

Valuation – DCF with significant option

We value FSY with a DCF of HK$10.00, using only the existing land-bank. Our core assumptions for the base case are in Figure 10 below. To be conservative, our base case is based merely on its existing land bank assuming (1) no uplift in saleable area through either asset-lite acquisitions or conversion of unlicensed land, and (2) excludes any revenue contribution from cremation machine sales, which is still of limited visibility at current stage.

Fig 10 Key Assumptions for base case FY18-FY22 Average

Land acquired as % of period begin saleable land nil Maintenance Capex (RMB) 75 % of land sold as period begin saleable land 2.4% ASP (RMB/outdoor unit) / ASP per sqm 93,708/37,461 Units sold volume CAGR 8.1% Weighted average ASP (ex. indoor) per unit CAGR 8.1% Source: Macquarie Research, July 2018

Fig 11 Cash Flow projection Rmb mn 2016 2017 2018E 2019E 2020E 2021E 2022E

Revenue 1,268 1,477 1,711 2,090 2,457 2,867 3,322 ... Growth 17% 16% 22% 18% 17% 16% EBITDA 631 775 882 1,061 1,235 1,430 1,648 … Margin 49.8% 52% 52% 51% 50% 50% 50% Free Cash Flow 415 545 624 798 926 1,069 1,230 ... FCF Growth 31% 15% 28% 16% 16% 15% Source: Company data, Macquarie Research, July 2018

Fig 12 FSY 12 months forward PE

60.0

50.0

40.0

30.0

20.0

10.0

0.0

Jun-14 Jun-15 Jun-16 Jun-17 Jun-18

Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17

Source: Bloomberg, Macquarie Research, July 2018

Major Comparable companies

Our TP of HK$10.00 implies a 39x/30x FY18/19E PER, and 5x/5x FY18/19E PBV. The valuation is fair compared to its global peers, given its high NP growth (ie, 21% during FY17-FY19E) vs. global peers ~10% earning CAGR (based on consensus forecast) and 18x FY19E PER.

27 July 2018 5

27 July 27 Macquarie Research

Fig 13 Comparable analysis

2018 Mkt ADV FCF Div Company Price cap trade(3M) EV/EBITDA PE ROE Yield Yield PB GP margin NP margin Sales growth rate Net profit growth rate

Asia Ticker LC US$bn US$mn FY17 FY18E FY19E FY18E FY19E FY18E FY18E FY18E FY18E FY17 FY18E FY19E FY17 FY18E FY19E FY17 FY18E FY19E FY17 FY18E FY19E

FU SHOU YUAN 1448 HK 8.53 2.3 7 18x 16x 14x 33x 26x 17% 4% 1% 5x 80% 79% 79% 28% 30% 30% 17% 16% 22% 23% 21% 24% FORTUNE NG FUN-A 600965 CH 10.04 1.3 2 n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a 2% n.a n.a 36% n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a

LUNG YEN LIFE 5530 TT 59.40 0.8 1 n.a n.a n.a 12x n.a 17% 4% n.a 2x 75% 71% n.a 36% 40% n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a HEIAN CEREMONY 2344 JP 929.00 0.1 0 n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a 32% n.a n.a 14% n.a n.a 18% n.a n.a 30% n.a n.a SAN HOLDINGS 9628 JP 2,410.00 0.1 0 n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a 18% n.a n.a 7% n.a n.a 12% n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a Average 0.9 2 18x 16x 14x 22x 26x 17% 3% 1% 3x 48% 75% 79% 19% 35% 30% 20% 13% 22% 34% 22% 24%

Others HI US Equity HI US 49.55 3.1 11 n.a 12x 11x 25x 19x n.a 9% n.a 4x 37% 38% 38% 8% 7% 10% 3% 6% 3% 12% -10% 47% DTY LN Equity DTY LN 998.50 0.7 5 11x 11x 12x 13x 14x 53% 10% 2% n.a 60% n.a n.a 18% 13% 11% -2% -3% -1% -4% -31% -10% SCI US Equity SCI US 37.71 6.9 36 11x 11x 11x 21x 19x 22% 4% 2% 5x 23% 24% 25% 18% 11% 11% 2% 3% 3% 209% -38% 7% STON US Equity STON US 4.30 0.2 0 n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a 3% n.a n.a 85% n.a n.a -22% -8% -7% 4% 3% 1% 147% -65% -13% IVC AU Equity IVC AU 13.77 1.2 6 14x 14x 13x 26x 24x 21% 2% 3% 5x n.a 74% 74% 21% 13% 13% 4% -4% 6% 42% -41% 7% CSV US Equity CSV US 24.54 0.4 3 n.a 9x 8x 16x 16x n.a 9% n.a n.a 30% n.a n.a 14% 10% 10% 4% 7% 5% 90% -28% 8% FUN SM Equity FUN SM 7.70 0.2 0 n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a 5% n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a 5% n.a n.a 6% n.a n.a 23% n.a n.a Average 1.8 9 12x 12x 11x 20x 18x 32% 6% 3% 5x 47% 45% 45% 9% 7% 8% 3% 2% 3% 74% -35% 8% note: FSY numbers are based on Macquarie Estimates, others based on Bloomberg consensus, price as of market end at 25 July 2018

Source: Bloomberg, Macquarie Research, July 2018

Fu Shou Yuan Fu Shou

6

Macquarie Research Fu Shou Yuan Macquarie Quant View

The quant model currently holds a reasonably positive view on Fu Shou Attractive Displays where the Yuan. The strongest style exposure is Price Momentum, indicating this stock company’s ranked based on has had strong medium to long term returns which often persist into the s l the fundamental consensus

a future. The weakest style exposure is Valuations, indicating this stock is t

n Price Target and over-priced in the market relative to its peers. e Macquarie’s Quantitative

m

a Alpha model. 59/429 d

n

u Two rankings: Local market Global rank in F (Hong Kong) and Global Consumer Services sector (Consumer Services) % of BUY recommendations 100% (2/2) Quant Local market rank Global sector rank Number of Price Target downgrades 0 Number of Price Target upgrades 1

Macquarie Alpha Model ranking Factors driving the Alpha Model A list of comparable companies and their Macquarie Alpha model score For the comparable firms this chart shows the key underlying styles and their (higher is better). contribution to the current overall Alpha score.

Fu Shou Yuan 0.9 Fu Shou Yuan

Service Corp Intl 0.8 Service Corp Intl

Carriage Services 0.6 Carriage Services

Dignity -0.3 Dignity

Invocare -0.8 Invocare

-100% -80% -60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% -3.0 -2.0 -1.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 Valuations Growth Profitability Earnings Price Quality Momentum Momentum

Macquarie Earnings Sentiment Indicator Drivers of Stock Return The Macquarie Sentiment Indicator is an enhanced earnings revisions Breakdown of 1 year total return (local currency) into returns from dividends, changes signal that favours analysts who have more timely and higher conviction in forward earnings estimates and the resulting change in earnings multiple. revisions. Current score shown below.

Fu Shou Yuan Fu Shou Yuan -1.2 Service Corp Intl Service Corp Intl 1.8 Carriage Services Carriage Services -0.6

Dignity Dignity 0.5

Invocare -0.5 Invocare

-3.0 -2.0 -1.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 -70% -50% -30% -10% 10% 30% 50% 70% Dividend Return Multiple Return Earnings Outlook 1Yr Total Return

What drove this Company in the last 5 years How it looks on the Alpha model Which factor score has had the greatest correlation with the company’s A more granular view of the underlying style scores that drive the alpha (higher is returns over the last 5 years. better) and the percentile rank relative to the sector and market. ⇐ Negatives Positives ⇒ Normalized Percentile relative Percentile relative Price to Earnings NTM 44% Score to sector(/429) to market(/585) Alpha Model Score 0.87 Price to Cash LTM 43% Valuation -0.52 Price to Earnings FY1 43% Growth -0.13 EV/EBITDA FY1 43% Profitability 0.38 Earnings Momentum -0.32 Volatility 250 Day -30% Price Momentum 0.94 Earnings Stability -33% Quality 0.18 Capital & Funding 0.08 SAL Growth 5yr Historic -39% Liquidity -0.33 Turnover (USD) 250 Day -42% Risk 0.11 Technicals & Trading 0.45 -60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 0 50 100 0 50 100 0 0 1 1

Source (all charts): FactSet, Thomson Reuters, and Macquarie Research. For more details on the Macquarie Alpha model or for more customised analysis and screens, please contact the Macquarie Global Quantitative/Custom Products Group ([email protected])

27 July 2018 7 Macquarie Research Fu Shou Yuan

Fu Shou Yuan (1448 HK, Outperform, Target Price: HK$10.00) Interim Results 2H/17A 1H/18E 2H/18E 1H/19E Profit & Loss 2017A 2018E 2019E 2020E

Revenue m 707 833 877 1,052 Revenue m 1,477 1,711 2,090 2,457 Gross Profit m 569 660 695 834 Gross Profit m 1,185 1,354 1,656 1,949 Cost of Goods Sold m 138 174 183 219 Cost of Goods Sold m 292 356 434 508 EBITDA m 362 431 452 534 EBITDA m 775 882 1,061 1,235 Depreciation m 17 19 20 20 Depreciation m 32 39 40 42 Amortisation of Goodwill m 0 0 0 0 Amortisation of Goodwill m 0 0 0 0 Other Amortisation m 22 23 22 22 Other Amortisation m 43 45 43 42 EBIT m 323 389 410 492 EBIT m 700 798 977 1,150 Net Interest Income m -12 8 12 16 Net Interest Income m -16 20 35 52 Associates m 0 0 0 0 Associates m 0 0 0 0 Exceptionals m 0 0 0 0 Exceptionals m 0 0 0 0 Forex Gains / Losses m 0 0 0 0 Forex Gains / Losses m 0 0 0 0 Other Pre-Tax Income m 0 0 0 0 Other Pre-Tax Income m 0 0 0 0 Pre-Tax Profit m 311 397 422 507 Pre-Tax Profit m 685 819 1,012 1,203 Tax Expense m -57 -79 -84 -101 Tax Expense m -135 -164 -202 -241 Net Profit m 254 317 337 406 Net Profit m 550 655 810 962 Minority Interests m -65 -72 -77 -92 Minority Interests m -133 -149 -184 -219

Reported Earnings m 189 245 261 314 Reported Earnings m 417 506 626 743 Adjusted Earnings m 189 245 261 314 Adjusted Earnings m 417 506 626 743

EPS (rep) fen 8.7 11.1 11.6 14.0 EPS (rep) fen 19.3 22.7 27.9 33.2 EPS (adj) fen 8.7 11.1 11.6 14.0 EPS (adj) fen 19.3 22.7 27.9 33.2 EPS Growth yoy (adj) % 16.3 3.9 33.7 26.7 EPS Growth (adj) % 22.9 17.3 23.1 18.8 PE (rep) x 38.1 32.5 26.4 22.2 PE (adj) x 38.1 32.5 26.4 22.2

EBITDA Margin % 51.2 51.7 51.5 50.7 Total DPS fen 6.5 6.9 8.5 10.1 EBIT Margin % 45.7 46.7 46.7 46.7 Total Div Yield % 0.9 0.9 1.2 1.4 Earnings Split % 45.2 48.5 51.5 50.1 Basic Shares Outstanding m 2,132 2,205 2,205 2,205 Revenue Growth % 12.9 8.2 24.1 26.3 Diluted Shares Outstanding m 2,158 2,228 2,238 2,238 EBIT Growth % 22.0 3.1 26.9 26.5

Profit and Loss Ratios 2017A 2018E 2019E 2020E Cashflow Analysis 2017A 2018E 2019E 2020E

Revenue Growth % 16.5 15.8 22.2 17.6 EBITDA m 775 882 1,061 1,235 EBITDA Growth % 22.7 13.9 20.2 16.4 Tax Paid m -135 -164 -202 -241 EBIT Growth % 23.9 14.0 22.4 17.8 Chgs in Working Cap m -17 -77 -3 -3 Gross Profit Margin % 80.2 79.2 79.2 79.3 Net Interest Paid m -16 20 35 52 EBITDA Margin % 52.4 51.6 50.8 50.2 Other m 41 32 0 0 EBIT Margin % 47.4 46.7 46.7 46.8 Operating Cashflow m 648 693 891 1,043 Net Profit Margin % 28.3 29.6 29.9 30.2 Acquisitions m -77 0 0 0 Payout Ratio % 33.5 30.5 30.5 30.5 Capex m -116 -53 -65 -76 EV/EBITDA x 18.0 16.4 13.6 11.7 Asset Sales m 0 0 0 0 EV/EBIT x 19.9 18.1 14.8 12.6 Other m 328 0 0 0 Investing Cashflow m 135 -53 -65 -76 Balance Sheet Ratios Dividend (Ordinary) m -204 -152 -188 -223 ROE % 15.0 15.4 16.7 17.6 Equity Raised m 0 164 0 0 ROA % 16.3 16.0 17.2 17.8 Debt Movements m -11 0 0 0 ROIC % 28.7 34.9 41.9 49.8 Other m 130 -18 0 0 Net Debt/Equity % -49.2 -56.3 -62.2 -67.3 Financing Cashflow m -85 -7 -188 -223 Interest Cover x 44.9 nmf nmf nmf Price/Book x 5.2 4.6 4.1 3.6 Net Chg in Cash/Debt m 698 633 638 744 Book Value per Share 1.4 1.6 1.8 2.0 Free Cashflow m 532 640 826 967

Balance Sheet 2017A 2018E 2019E 2020E

Cash m 1,937 2,570 3,209 3,953 Receivables m 47 79 93 110 Inventories m 426 475 560 655 Investments m 55 55 55 55 Fixed Assets m 479 491 513 544 Intangibles m 1,622 1,579 1,538 1,498 Other Assets m 95 64 64 64 Total Assets m 4,662 5,313 6,032 6,879 Payables m 391 394 465 544 Short Term Debt m 71 68 68 68 Long Term Debt m 94 96 96 96 Provisions m 29 29 34 40 Other Liabilities m 473 455 476 499 Total Liabilities m 1,058 1,042 1,139 1,247 Shareholders' Funds m 3,018 3,535 3,973 4,493 Minority Interests m 586 735 920 1,139 Other m 0 0 0 0 Total S/H Equity m 3,605 4,270 4,893 5,632 Total Liab & S/H Funds m 4,662 5,313 6,032 6,879

All figures in Rmb unless noted. Source: Company data, Macquarie Research, July 2018

27 July 2018 8 Macquarie Research Fu Shou Yuan Important disclosures: Recommendation definitions Volatility index definition* Financial definitions Macquarie - Australia/New Zealand This is calculated from the volatility of historical All "Adjusted" data items have had the following Outperform – return >3% in excess of benchmark return price movements. adjustments made: Neutral – return within 3% of benchmark return Added back: goodwill amortisation, provision for Underperform – return >3% below benchmark return Very high–highest risk – Stock should be catastrophe reserves, IFRS derivatives & hedging, expected to move up or down 60–100% in a year IFRS impairments & IFRS interest expense Benchmark return is determined by long term nominal – investors should be aware this stock is highly Excluded: non recurring items, asset revals, property GDP growth plus 12 month forward market dividend speculative. revals, appraisal value uplift, preference dividends & yield, which is currently around 9%. minority interests Macquarie – Asia/Europe High – stock should be expected to move up or Outperform – expected return >+10% down at least 40–60% in a year – investors should EPS = adjusted net profit / efpowa* Neutral – expected return from -10% to +10% be aware this stock could be speculative. ROA = adjusted ebit / average total assets Underperform – expected return <-10% ROA Banks/Insurance = adjusted net profit /average Medium – stock should be expected to move up total assets Macquarie – South Africa or down at least 30–40% in a year. ROE = adjusted net profit / average shareholders funds Outperform – expected return >+10% Gross cashflow = adjusted net profit + depreciation Neutral – expected return from -10% to +10% Low–medium – stock should be expected to *equivalent fully paid ordinary weighted average Underperform – expected return <-10% move up or down at least 25–30% in a year. number of shares Macquarie - Canada Outperform – return >5% in excess of benchmark return Low – stock should be expected to move up or All Reported numbers for Australian/NZ listed stocks Neutral – return within 5% of benchmark return down at least 15–25% in a year. are modelled under IFRS (International Financial Underperform – return >5% below benchmark return * Applicable to Asia/Australian/NZ/Canada stocks Reporting Standards). only Macquarie - USA Outperform (Buy) – return >5% in excess of Russell Recommendations – 12 months 3000 index return Note: Quant recommendations may differ from Neutral (Hold) – return within 5% of Russell 3000 index Fundamental Analyst recommendations return Underperform (Sell)– return >5% below Russell 3000 index return

Recommendation proportions – For quarter ending 30 June 2018 AU/NZ Asia RSA USA CA EUR Outperform 52.87% 61.26% 48.86% 47.54% 69.86% 46.61% (for global coverage by Macquarie, 3.51% of stocks followed are investment banking clients) Neutral 34.10% 27.25% 36.36% 46.72% 21.92% 43.22% (for global coverage by Macquarie, 2.10% of stocks followed are investment banking clients) Underperform 13.03% 11.49% 14.77% 5.74% 8.22% 10.17% (for global coverage by Macquarie, 0.00% of stocks followed are investment banking clients)

1448 HK vs HSI, & rec history

(all figures in HKD currency unless noted)

Note: Recommendation timeline – if not a continuous line, then there was no Macquarie coverage at the time or there was an embargo period. Source: FactSet, Macquarie Research, July 2018

12-month target price methodology 1448 HK: HK$10.00 based on a DCF methodology

Company-specific disclosures:

Important disclosure information regarding the subject companies covered in this report is available at www.macquarie.com/research/disclosures.

Date Stock Code (BBG code) Recommendation Target Price 27-Mar-2018 1448 HK Outperform HK$11.00 21-Mar-2017 1448 HK Outperform HK$6.80 16-Aug-2016 1448 HK Outperform HK$6.50 13-Apr-2016 1448 HK Outperform HK$7.30

Target price risk disclosures: 1448 HK: Regulation is key: The death-care industry is highly regulated – a large reason behind the attractive returns. While we argue that the current regulatory environment works to FSY’s favour, that situation could change. In particular, any move to limit the standard outdoor burial of cremains (which we believe is one of FSY’s highest margin businesses) would be a risk to CF projections. Land bank and usage rights: The majority of FSY’s value lies in its landbank. Its key Shanghai cemetery has 48 years left on its 70 year lease. A key point of value is the usage rights for operating cemeteries that are attached to most of their landbank (we do not include that land which is not yet licensed in our valuation). Any change in these usage rights would represent a risk to CF projections. Margins higher than international peers: FSY enjoys higher margins than international peers – we believe as a result of its brand strength and the immature stage of development of the industry. The risk is that margins revert to international norms. Contingent liability: FSY has a contingent liability of RMB35m relating to a legal dispute with the seller of its acquired Wuyuan Wanshoushan cemetery acquisition.

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27 July 2018 11

Equities

Asia Research Head of Equity Research Emerging Leaders Technology Jake Lynch (Asia – Head) (852) 3922 3583 Jake Lynch (Asia) (852) 3922 3583 Damian Thong (Asia, Japan) (813) 3512 7877 Hiroyuki Sakaida (Japan – Head) (813) 3512 6695 Kwang Cho (Korea) (822) 3705 4953 Allen Chang (Greater China) (852) 3922 1136 Conrad Werner (ASEAN – Head) (65) 6601 0182 Corinne Jian (Greater China) (8862) 2734 7522 Jeffrey Ohlweiler (Greater China) (8862) 2734 7512 Conrad Werner (ASEAN) (65) 6601 0182 Chris Yu (Greater China) (8621) 2412 9024 Automobiles, Auto Parts Bo Denworalak (Thailand) (662) 694 7774 Kaylin Tsai (Greater China) (8862) 2734 7523 Lynn Luo (Greater China) (8862) 2734 7534 Janet Lewis (China, Japan) (813) 3512 7856 Infrastructure, Industrials, Transportation Allen Yuan (China) (8621) 2412 9009 Patrick Liao (Greater China) (8862) 2734 7515 James Hong (Korea) (822) 3705 8661 Patrick Dai (China) (8621) 2412 9082 Verena Jeng (Greater China) (852) 3922 3766 Amit Mishra (India) (9122) 6720 4084 Eric Zong (China, Hong Kong) (852) 3922 4749 Daniel Kim (Korea) (822) 3705 8641 Kunio Sakaida (Japan) (813) 3512 7873 Abhishek Bhandari (India) (9122) 6720 4088 Banks and Financials James Hong (Korea) (822) 3705 8661 Farrah Aqlima (Malaysia) (603) 2059 8987 Scott Russell (Asia) (852) 3922 3567 Corinne Jian (Taiwan) (8862) 2734 7522 Telecoms Dexter Hsu (China, Taiwan) (8862) 2734 7530 Inderjeetsingh Bhatia (India) (9122) 6720 4087 Keisuke Moriyama (Japan) (813) 3512 7476 Azita Nazrene (ASEAN) (65) 6601 0560 Allen Chang (Greater China) (852) 3922 1136 Prem Jearajasingam (ASEAN) (603) 2059 8989 Chan Hwang (Korea) (822) 3705 8643 Internet, Media and Software Suresh Ganapathy (India) (9122) 6720 4078 Kervin Sisayan (Philippines) (632) 857 0893 Jayden Vantarakis (Indonesia) (6221) 2598 8310 Wendy Huang (Asia) (852) 3922 3378 Nathania Nurhalim (Indonesia) (6221) 2598 8365 Anand Pathmakanthan (Malaysia) (603) 2059 8833 Marcus Yang (Greater China) (8862) 2734 7532 Utilities, Renewables Gilbert Lopez (Philippines) (632) 857 0892 David Gibson (Japan) (813) 3512 7880 Ken Ang (Singapore) (65) 6601 0836 Alankar Garude (India) (9122) 6720 4134 Hiroyuki Sakaida (Japan) (813) 3512 6695 Peach Patharavanakul (Thailand) (662) 694 7753 Patrick Dai (China) (8621) 2412 9082 Oil, Gas and Petrochemicals Inderjeetsingh Bhatia (India) (9122) 6720 4087 Basic Materials Aditya Suresh (Asia) (852) 3922 1265 Karisa Magpayo (Philippines) (632) 857 0899 Yasuhiro Nakada (Japan) (813) 3512 7862 Anna Park (Asia) (822) 3705 8669 Quantitative, CPG Anna Park (Korea) (822) 3705 8669 Yasuhiro Nakada (Japan) (813) 3512 7862 Sumangal Nevatia (India) (9122) 6720 4093 Corinne Jian (Taiwan) (8862) 2734 7522 Gurvinder Brar (Global) (44 20) 3037 4036 Jayden Vantarakis (Indonesia) (6221) 2598 8310 Ben Shane Lim (Malaysia) (603) 2059 8868 John Conomos (Asia) (612) 8232 5157 Farrah Aqlima (Malaysia) (603) 2059 8987 Yupapan Polpornprasert (Thailand) (662) 694 7729 Alvin Chao (Asia) (852) 3922 1108 Tracy Chow (Asia) (852) 3922 4285 Conglomerates Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare YingYing Hou (Asia) (852) 3922 5422 David Ng (China, Hong Kong) (852) 3922 1291 Corinne Jian (China) (8862) 2734 7522 Strategy, Country Conrad Werner (Singapore) (65) 6601 0182 Alankar Garude (India) (9122) 6720 4134 Gilbert Lopez (Philippines) (632) 857 0892 Richardo Walujo (Indonesia) (6221) 259 88 369 Viktor Shvets (Asia, Global) (852) 3922 3883 David Ng (China, Hong Kong) (852) 3922 1291 Consumer, Gaming Property, REIT Hiroyuki Sakaida (Japan) (813) 3512 6695 Linda Huang (Asia) (852) 3922 4068 Tuck Yin Soong (Asia, Singapore) (65) 6601 0838 Chan Hwang (Korea) (822) 3705 8643 Zibo Chen (China, Hong Kong) (852) 3922 1130 David Ng (China, Hong Kong) (852) 3922 1291 Jeffrey Ohlweiler (Taiwan) (8862) 2734 7512 Terence Chang (China, Hong Kong) (852) 3922 3581 Kelvin Tam (China) (852) 3922 1181 Inderjeetsingh Bhatia (India) (9122) 6720 4087 Sunny Chow (China, Hong Kong) (852) 3922 3768 Keisuke Moriyama (Japan) (813) 3512 7476 Jayden Vantarakis (Indonesia) (6221) 2598 8310 Stella Li (China, Taiwan) (8862) 2734 7514 Tomoyoshi Omuro (Japan) (813) 3512 7474 Anand Pathmakanthan (Malaysia) (603) 2059 8833 Leon Rapp (Japan) (813) 3512 7879 Abhishek Bhandari (India) (9122) 6720 4088 Gilbert Lopez (Philippines) (632) 857 0892 Kwang Cho (Korea) (822) 3705 4953 Aiman Mohamad (Malaysia) (603) 2059 8986 Conrad Werner (ASEAN, Singapore) (65) 6601 0182 Amit Sinha (India) (9122) 6720 4085 Kervin Sisayan (Philippines) (632) 857 0893 Peach Patharavanakul (Thailand) (662) 694 7753 Karisa Magpayo (Philippines) (632) 857 0899 Richard Danusaputra (Indonesia) (6221) 2598 8368 Chalinee Congmuang (Thailand) (662) 694 7993 Find our research at Robert Pranata (Indonesia) (6221) 2598 8366 Macquarie: www.macquarieresearch.com Richardo Walujo (Indonesia) (6221) 2598 8369 Thomson: www.thomson.com/financial Denise Soon (Malaysia) (603) 2059 8845 Reuters: www.knowledge.reuters.com Bloomberg: MAC GO Factset: http://www.factset.com/home.aspx CapitalIQ www.capitaliq.com Email [email protected] for access

Asia Sales Regional Heads of Sales Regional Heads of Sales cont’d Sales Trading cont’d Miki Edelman (Global) (1 212) 231 6121 Paul Colaco (San Francisco) (1 415) 762 5003 Suhaida Samsudin (Malaysia) (603) 2059 8888 Amelia Mehta (Asia) (65) 6601 0211 Angus Kent (Thailand) (662) 694 7601 Michael Santos (Philippines) (632) 857 0813 Jeffrey Shiu (China, Hong Kong) (852) 3922 2061 Ben Musgrave (UK/Europe) (44 20) 3037 4882 Chris Reale (New York) (1 212) 231 2555 Sandeep Bhatia (India) (9122) 6720 4101 Christina Lee (UK/Europe) (44 20) 3037 4873 Marc Rosa (New York) (1 212) 231 2555 Thomas Renz (Geneva) (41 22) 818 7712 Justin Morrison (Singapore) (65) 6601 0288 Tomohiro Takahashi (Japan) (813) 3512 7823 Sales Trading Daniel Clarke (Taiwan) (8862) 2734 7580 John Jay Lee (Korea) (822) 3705 9988 Adam Zaki (Asia) (852) 3922 2002 Brendan Rake (Thailand) (662) 694 7707 Nik Hadi (Malaysia) (603) 2059 8888 Stanley Dunda (Indonesia) (6221) 515 1555 Mike Keen (UK/Europe) (44 20) 3037 4905 Gino C Rojas (Philippines) (632) 857 0861

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