CULTIVATING PRODUCTIVE OPTIMISM IN ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE

JANUARY 9, 2019

National Council for Science and the Environment WASHINGTON, DC

Carl Page

Organization Founded by Barbara and Carl Page

Ocean Conservation for Resilience. SlidesAnthInst.org Will Be on Dispel Roadblocks to Long Term Success web

● Enable Good Long Term Corporate Decision Making. ● Inspire Public to Take Action in Self Defense on Climate, Energy, Health.

Cheap Clean Energy Research and Development.

● Small companies. ● University research groups.

3 No Hand Wringing!

We are as gods, we HAVE to get good at it. --Stewart Brand.

Being Less Bad is Not Being Good. --William McDonough.

Agenda:

Establish the Objective- Zero Pollution, and Restoration, soon enough.

Hurdles- why have our institutions not already prioritized and solved this engineering problem?

Evidence that we can meet the objective, and probably will.

Tactics to help the institutions do better.

Detail on some obscure but key technologies.

What you can do to protect our infrastructure, way of life and natural bounty, quick enough. Modest Proposal: Stop All Pollution Now... H+ Ocean Acidification Clean COO Greenhouse Gases Up N Nitrogen P Phosphorous After Mud Run-off - Enhanced erosion Yourself Germs Disease agents, PM2.5 Sprawl Footprint Pollution - Habitat Garbage Trash ...And Make Money Doing It! While Respecting Human Rights Better All The TIme How many people can the Earth Support? All the people who support Earth!

There's room for everyone who makes Earth better than they found it.

Bad things happen to Fatalistic people!

Forget COP21. 420ppm is Too Much.

Don't settle for today's climate! 300ppm is likely safe. Let's drawdown fast.

Slowing down Collapse cannot be our Purpose. Let's Build a Better Spaceship Earth. Greatest danger- Half Steps.

If all the ineffective ideas for solving the energy crisis were laid end to end, they would reach to the moon and back --David J. C. MacKay

If you're going through Hell... Keep going!

Never Waste a Good Disaster.

--Winston Churchill Ocean Acidification- A simpler, sooner Tipping Point

Too much CO2, Carbonic Acid

Damages Skeleton Still or of marine life Sparking? especially A Serious oysters, crabs, Ocean issue. urchins, stars, diatoms.

Normal Acid Subgoal: Vast Abundant Ubiquitous Cheap Clean Safe Energy. Zero Pollution.

Energy consumption should increase dramatically. Industry revenues can increase reducing opposition.

This will mean developing many new energy technologies and re-evaluating which is safest from a whole-system perspective. One-Cent Clean Energy Coming Soon.

A milestone to Anticipate.

New Wind selling at 2 cents around the world.

Dam-free micro- growth potential. Electrical Storage to firm up the above. ★ Innovative atomic energy. ★ MSR? Michigan Battery Lab ★ LENR?

Coal. Missing Alphabet’s the Target Oil Gas Makani energy kite system LWR Sustainable abundance and prosperity. Minimum ethical economy. Carbon Free! Intentional Design For Sustainable Industrial and Natural Ecosystems.

Mostly Electrified Economy

12 Billion Affluent City Dwellers enjoy Clean Air & Water

50 Years Great food using far less cropland and Fossil ag-chem Cheap transportation and shipping

Cradle to Cradle Upcycling the industrial food chain Let's Clean Up After Ourselves More Wild Lands & Seas

Full Scale Disaster Recovery with Weatherproof Resilient Life Support & Energy Infrastructure Large scale desalination for people, farms and wild areas facing drought.

Industrial Heat Carbon Neutral Fuel One of the Most Destructive Memes in History Erlich's Population Bomb

Today We Know Poverty Causes Population Growth. Prosperity causes stability. Everywhere. This book helped send us in the wrong direction. Progressives should be for progress!

A reliable source of clean energy will allow people to live with economic justice, AND far less pollution. Far less disease. No more need for child labor on a hardscrabble subsistence farm. Hollywood vs Earth

scienceandentertainmentexchange.org/ Frack Shale Ponzi Scheme?

source: https://seekingalpha.com/article/42251 53-evs-oil-ice-impact-2023-beyond What do we actually know about technology growth? Exponential Technology

Exponential Roadmap

Singularity University

S-Curves

Graph from Seeking Alpha Ross Tessian Collapse of oil revenues imminent. Fossil Vehicles Regardless Electric Vehicles Total Vehicles of Govt Oil in Barrels policy. Oil in Dollars (my guess) Graph from Seeking Alpha Ross Tessian, plus guesswork

Powerup: Automation is here.

● Few things have been redesigned as if computers exist. ● A 5 year old design had 1:10th the computing power. ● Forget human operators. ● Choose 1000 manufactured 1 megawatt generators, not a gigawatt. ○ "Micro-hydropower" ○ small scale , ○ rooftop solar, ● Often devices can harvest ambient energy: solar, wind, waves, mechanical, EM or chemical energy. Smart Grid Distributed Generation. Apparent Energy ( Apparent.com )

Solar and Storage Systems:

● Designed to support the stable and reliable and efficient operation of the grid. ● Provide energy efficiency by power-factor-correcting the building or grid, without additional cost. ● Coordinated to act as virtual power plants as capable as any other.

29

Nature Laughs at Fossil Fuels. Energy($) is 90,000,000,000,000,000 times fuel. 9E16

Powerup: 100 kinds of atomic energy accessible Younger Folks don't know Why I Hate(d) "Nuclear" In the 1980s a Full Court Press Against "Nuclear industry" because: ● Govt was building a Surprise First Strike Only Weapon ● Arms race seemed to be crippling social goals. But NOT SO MUCH THESE DAYS Decarbonization Race. Vive la France!

GOAL 100% Wow wow! 2015 1985

wasted.. $#!+ is committed to giving our children a healthy climate and a thriving planet. It is an education, networking and advocacy program of the Foundation for Climate Restoration. Giving future generations a healthy climate like our grandparents had. HCA serves as a bridge between the public, policy-makers and tech/business experts. A Goal is where we WANT to Go. Up Till Now Climate Goals have been focused on Avoiding or Delaying Catastrophe. With the Center for Climate Restoration, Generating Roadmaps to restore the climate.

See also : Climate Mobilization, Extinction Rebellion, and the Sunrise Movement. Bi-partisan support for the Green New Deal. Inspiring Goals Even Fusion has Startups Save the whales! Shutdown coal. Keep Nuclear.

1960s style Light Water Reactors

Terrible design. Mostly Kludges. Great track record. Uncompetitive today.

The AP1000 and EPR troubles in China seem like LWR industry's last gasp. EcoAmerica and Anthropocene Polling on Energy Policy and Nuclear Energy.

New! Big majority (73%) of Americans In Favor of Inherently Safe Nuclear Power! Q: American engineers invented molten salt reactors in the early 1960s to be cheap, produce little waste, and be fail-safe so human errors can't cause widespread damage. Power failures and mechanical breakdowns can't damage anything outside the building. Some nations and several small companies in the USA are now racing to bring it to market for the first time. Assuming the claims are true, would you support moving on to better nuclear energy? 8% of Americans agree that: 54% of Americans support "Energy Policy should be increased funding for R&D in left to Wall Street, and the "Next generation nuclear priority should be to protect energy" today's jobs at old companies."

Good news! We Have the Political Will to Get to Zero Carbon Energy! Proof: Germany and California Spent Enough to go Zero Carbon from the Power Sector. Didn't get what they paid for, due to anti-nuclear bias and premature plant shutdowns.

New coal, gas were added to balance the wind and solar which increased emissions. Most common fear: What about the waste?

Manufactured concern due to hysteria about near-background levels of radioactivity.

Perspective: Zero injuries so far from nuclear power waste. waste kills 3.5 million people per year, and includes 10,000 times more radioactive material, affecting people.

Regulatory problem. Not engineering problem. Congressional Stalemate. Tiny in size. Inert. Cools rapidly.

Military waste stored in boreholes.

A startup Deep Isolation is pretty sure they can make money, with 2018’s off the shelf technology, directional drilling in water-impermeable tight-Shale formations. Many New Friends of Nuclear power?

It's good to have a climatologist speak out FOR nuclear power and against sponsoring resolutely anti-nuclear mainstream "environmental" groups, and CA Governor Brown and Angela Merkel.

We need more honest speakers!

Even California's Governor Brown has Taken Down Anti-Nuclear Barriers.

California amended its standard when it Announced Clean Energy Goal for 2050 which includes Nuclear contribution.

But... In 2025...

● the Arctic Ocean is expected to be ice free in the summer. ● and California plans to shutter Diablo Canyon nuclear plant, that supplies 9% of its power. ● Unleashing a warming tipping point? Sept 2018 Nuclear tailwinds

● awareness in US, EU and Asia --> More students enrolling in nuclear engineering today in the US ● Air pollution in China and India --> WHO says air pollution kills 7 million each year, 50% fossil fuel. ● Growing awareness and interest from private sector in and readiness of advanced reactors. ● 2018 September MIT Future of Nuclear Study! ● Congress motivated to see US regain leadership in nuclear technology. Unexpected bump up in ARPA-e funding. Safer Cheaper Fission. (MSR)

Public Interest Groups. ● Energy Alliance ● ThirdWay. ● Breakthrough Institute.

Safe No New Technology (1976) Rapidly Deployable Fixable Thorium is your guarantee you never run out of Cheaper than Coal Companies: . But you never will. Start with all the Cheap Construction ● Terrestrial Energy "nuclear waste" and depleted U and unneeded Cheap Fuel. ● ThorCon Power warheads we need to get rid of anyway. Next Cheap Decommissioning. ● Terrapower absorb it from the ocean. Countries: ● Canada ● Malaysia ● India ● China 48

The AP1000 and EPR troubles seem like LWR industry's last gasp.

These projects are 99% Kludge by

weight.

The folly of adding parts to enhance

safety. MSR Molten Salt Reactor improvement factors

Liquid fuel not vulnerable to theft. Unsuitable for Proliferation 100x weapons as is waste. 300 year cool down. No security threat. Absorbing Waste 1000x existing waste! No containment dome, or high pressure plumbing or CapX 10x critical systems redundancy. 600C allows normal cheap GE turbines. Safety defuses NIMBY.

Opex Low waste. Small staff. Rampable. Low stress! 10x Trivial. 15x less fuel, simply recycled from waste and Fuel Cost 15-100x in distant future, thorium, or seawater uranium. No steam escape. Walk away safe. Leaked material Terrorism or Leak 1000x freezes and sits there until shoveled up.

Automated Factory / Shipyard Built. 7 Hours of Speed of Scale 10x Labor per Ton of Steel. MSR Molten Salt Reactor

Earthquake 100x

Fuel resource 1 billion years Renewable potential breeder of thorium. depletion 600C Industrial heat 10x 600C is much better than 300C and it can go behind-the-fence in factories. Far less hot matter. Decommissioning 1000x Designed for transfer to central facility. Mining and Potential use of U from seawater or Thorium environmental 100x after burning down existing waste. sacrifice

Regulatory Delay 10x Build it in Canada to power USA

Water use 100x 600c hot-side Brayton Cycle, water free. Atomic innovation space.

Source: Magdalena Kowalska CERN 2014 European Space Agency’s 2013 trio of satellites, called Swarm, can measure magnetic field variations underground 3,000 km. Images the molten core interface to the solid mantle.

from New Scientist, 2016 "Molten Iron River in Earth's core".

LENR: Cautious view of a stigmatized field.

Scientists must test their intellectual honesty from time to time by looking at research with conclusions outside the consensus. Otherwise how do you know you are a scientist, and not an adherent to an ideology? Or just fashionable.

Given my interest in energy, I was asked to meet with a "cold fusion" researcher. I said "No" until I had a chance to see why the field is so unpopular with many intelligent people. After a year of reading and talking to experts, I discerned a textbook example of an important and unexpected result that provoked every form of unscientific reaction, literally terrorizing honest researchers. Motivated reasoning, rampant academic nepotism, self interest, intra-disciplinary conflict, ideology, math dominance, and authoritarian rule. Ecosystem for LENR

56 Lattice Enabled Nuclear Reactions (LENR) ● 1922: Helium production from exploding wire observed: ACS Irion and Wendt. ● 1989: Pons & Fleischmann succeeded using electrolysis. ● Subsequent work has characterized the reaction. ● Third Kind of Nuclear Power- Neither Fission or Fusion. (nor muon-catalyzed cold fusion.) ○ Hydrogen to Helium and heat like Fusion. ○ Tritium production observed. ○ But Tell-Tale Radiation mostly missing ○ So LENR mechanism is not Fusion. ● Observations continue despite lack of consensus theory. ● Increasing institutional support. LENRIA.org (NASA, Navy, Airbus, Nissan, MHI, Toyota) ● ICCF21 conference recently held in Colorado.

LENR test kit Announced.

Books

59 Fusion (Hot plasma) Low Energy Nuclear Reactions (LENR)

Realm of Plasma and Particle Physics Too interdisciplinary. Chemistry, EE, Condensed Matter Physics, Control theory. Best predictive theory in science. Experiment follows theory to 9 decimal places! Cheap common materials (AFAIK) -- No regulatory delays.

Easy math. Classical Mechanics- Billiard ball physics. Simple Engineering. Promise of low cost.

Great Evidence. Basis of astronomy. Watch Sol every Lots of candidate theories- no consensus. day. H-bombs work. No generally accepted purchasable demo reactor. * Terrible Engineering. Unstable destructive forces. Unobtainable materials. Corrosive events. Very hard to Lots of repeatability issues. engineer in to stable power plant. Little progress on that goal to date. Horrible Math. Difficulty of Quantum field theory in Condensed matter dwarfs treatment by today's analytic math or Subgoal of positive stable experimental energy balance supercomputer simulation. still not achieved. Literature shows observations of every number you would like Dominated by ITER which is a 30 year path to promise of to see for practical energy- but not at the same time and place nothing. repeatedly.

Strong governmental and academic support. Weak governmental and academic support. Powerup: Smart Green Finance?

Carbon Fee & Dividend-- a distraction from drastically cheaper energy. Moonshot technology doesn't get developed just because of a small subsidy.

Patrick Bolton, Frédéric Samama - Loyalty Shares

Explanation/SolutionHow public companies can align financial incentives for investors and key partners to insure long term growth. Long Term Stock Exchange

The Long-Term Stock Exchange exists for one simple reason: to provide a public market option for companies who believe, as we do, that vision and value should be measured over the long-term. We’re excited to offer a new listings venue built to foster sustained growth.

Our mission is to enable bold, visionary companies that are built in an ethical, sustainable way, to thrive. Giant investors decarbonizing portfolios

Asset owners’ mobilization: Sovereign Wealth Funds now move integrate climate change and some other externalities in their investment process. At Elysee Palace 6 SWFs representing more than $3 Trillion (including the main 4 of the Middle East) disclosed their new Environmental Social Goals (ESG) policy and it was all about climate change BlackRock: Dispelling the Myth that Carelessness is Profitable Powerup: Improved Communication Skills

Scientific Marketing

Numeracy Tested Messages Trusted Messengers

(For leaders in Medicine) Practical Numeracy. Pop Quiz

What's the per-person cost of a train construction project in California? Assume there will be 50 million people. Assume project cost is $100 Billion.

A) around $20 B) around $200 C) around $2000 D) around $20,000

If 50 million people (California) want to build a train for 100 Billion dollars, how much per 4 person? 2000 $ / Person 1/5 * 10 102 * 109 $ 4 0.2 * 10 50 * 106 People 3 2 * 10 Best use of $100 Billion?

A. A train from San Francisco to Los Angeles for $200/ride. B. 50 Teaching Hospitals with over 200 beds each? C. Pay for 100 Rides on Uber/Lyft for everyone in the state? D. 1.5 million Affordable New Apartments E. 100% Abundant Clean Electricity and Water, with no pollution, using 20 new nuclear plants. F. New Aviation Industry, using cheap Electric power.

Startups Hosting Science? + Vast fast cash for equity. + Freedom from Bureaucracy, Academic Nepotism, Silos + Imperative to have economically relevant, positive plan. + Investors can help you many ways. + Employees share in the upside. + Can work in secret. No need to publish. Can work the Press Release system - Must work in secret. Patents, investors, competitors, trade secrets. - Must fundraise. Investors can be frustrating. - Buzzword compliant? Exit Strategy? Market share? Market size? Time to Market? IPO? - Pressure to claim close to commercialization. Our Job is Making the Anthropocene Era Great Building Sustainable Infrastructure is Just the Job We Need To Avoid Economic Collapse and Replace the Oil and Automobile Industry.

What can I do?

Envision success. Demand leadership.

Fight Innumeracy Death Prioritize Big Problems. of

Personal Vulnerability Should be a Priority My 12% Chance by Air Pollution. Make Money Steadily: Help Replace a Trillion Dollar industry.

Don't Wait for Change to come from WELL ENDOWED institutions beholden to the status-quo.

Never Trust Any Technology over 50. Or 5? Consider working on or with a Fledgeling Company. Demand Much More Reliable Power, Communications and Safety Infrastructure.

Listen and Communicate with Non-Scientists. Preach to the non-converted! Stop Preaching Austerity!

Protect Your Money. DIVEST out of collapsing assets Don't forget your institution's investments. Your Employer, Pension Plans, Insurance Companies, Governments.

Don't worry about unintended consequences of saving the world. Thank you.

Love all humanity and kin, every living thing. Every sentient being, including Manta Rays.