The IMPACTS of CLIMATE CHANGE in HONG KONG and the PEARL RIVER DELTA 氣候變化對香港及珠江三角洲的影響

ALEXANDRA TRACY KATE TRUMBULL CHRISTINE LOH 陸恭蕙

November 2006 2006年11月 The Impacts of Climate Change in Hong Kong and the Pearl River Delta

Table of Contents

Preface 1 About the Contributors 2 I. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 3 II. INTRODUCTION 6 III. CLIMATE CHANGE PREDICTIONS 1. Global Climate Change Predictions 8 (a) Rising Temperatures 9 (b) Altered Weather Patterns 10 (c) Sea Level Rise 10 (d) Interaction Between Climate Change Impacts and Human Activities 13 2. Climate Change Predictions for the Greater Pearl River Delta Region 14 (a) Increase in Temperature 15 (b) Rainfall 16 (c) Storms 17 (d) Relative Sea Level Rise 18 IV. CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS 1. Impacts on Human Health 23 2. Ecological Impacts 24 3. Impacts on Infrastructure 25 (a) Coastal and River Defences 27 (b) Ground Transportation 27 (c) Sea and River Ports 29 (d) Airports 31 (e) Water Supply 32 (f) Power Supply 33 4. Economic Impacts 34 (a) Approach to Economic Analysis of Climate Change 34 (b) Potential Threats 36 5. Impact by Industry Sector 40 (a) Property 41 (b) Supply Chain 42 (c) Transportation/Logistics 43 (d) Financial Services 44 V. ADAPTATION 1. Adaptation Strategy Frameworks 45 2. Responsibility for Adaptation Strategies in the Greater PRD 47 3. Selected Public Policy Areas for Adaptation 48 VI. CONCLUSION AND INITIAL RECOMMENDATIONS 50 The Impacts of Climate Change in Hong Kong and the Pearl River Delta English

Preface

We at Civic Exchange added climate change to our research agenda some time ago, recognising that it is a cross-cutting issue that will have substantial impact, not only on Hong Kong but on the entire Pearl River Delta. Over the past year we have had the opportunity to discuss climate change issues with some of the world’s leading scientific experts on the topic. What we have learnt reinforces our conviction that this is an urgent challenge on an unprecedented scale, and one that will impact on all of us. Our region is the wealthiest part of China. Along with growing material wealth, our ecological footprint – and particularly our greenhouse gas emissions – have increased exponentially. We have a special responsibility to contribute to finding effective mitigation measures that can help to slow the process; as well as a pressing need to find ways to adapt to those effects of climate change that cannot be forestalled.

This paper represents our first attempt to pull together the relevant materials, with the aim of providing a broad-brush view of how climate change may affect Hong Kong, Macao and the Pearl River Delta. Our key recommendation is that more region-specific research must be done. We have also taken note of the recently published Stern Review, which was commissioned by the United Kingdom government, to assess the economics of climate change. We note the report calls for urgent action. In this respect, this report therefore doubles as a funding proposal. Civic Exchange is seeking further funds to allow us to sharpen our focus on the issues highlighted here.

We are grateful to Alexandra Tracy as the lead researcher and author of this report. We also wish to acknowledge the important contributions of Kate Trumbull, as well as the supporting role of Darren Lam. We must also thank Alexis Lau and Jimmy Fung of the Institute of the Environment at the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology for their advice on meteorology and climate, Dr. James Hansen of the Goddard Institute, NASA, USA on the latest scientific evidence, and Dr Tim Flannery for his expert comment. We want to acknowledge Nomis Fung and Simon Ng for editing and translating this report, and Mirror Productions for the layout and design.

Christine Loh Chief Executive Officer November 2006

Civic Exchange is a non-profit organisation that helps to improve policy and decision-making through research and analysis. The views expressed in this report are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent the opinions of Civic Exchange. The Impacts of Climate Change in Hong Kong and the Pearl River Delta English

About the Contributors

Alexandra Tracy is President of Hoi Ping Ventures, a private entity in Hong Kong, which is active in research and consulting on sustainability and investment issues as well as private wealth management. Previously, she was Chief Financial Officer of a start- up software company in Singapore, and subsequently ran her own corporate finance consulting business in Singapore. For many years, Tracy was an investment banker in Asia, in corporate and project finance, where she advised on construction, acquisition and financing of major infrastructure projects in developing countries in the region. Tracy has an MBA from the Harvard Business School and MA degrees from Yale University and Cambridge University.

Christine Loh is the CEO of Civic Exchange, and has worked on environmental issues since the 1980s. Prior to her current position, she was a member of the Hong Kong Legislative Council from 1992 to 1997 and from 1998 to 2000, before stepping- down to create the think tank. Loh is a lawyer by training and was a commodities trader from 1980 to 1992. She is currently involved with the G8+5 Legislators Climate Change Dialogue in a supporting capacity to help coordinate research for committees’ chairs.

Kate Trumbull trained as a lawyer in Australia, and did a brief stint in commercial law before moving into the policy field with the New South Wales government. She joined Civic Exchange as a researcher in August 2006, focusing on environmental policy in Hong Kong and the greater Pearl River Delta region. Trumbull is currently completing a Master of Science in Environmental Management degree at the University of Hong Kong.

Darren Lam read sociology at the University of Essex and University of Cambridge. Lam worked with a private futurology firm before returning to Hong Kong. He joined Civic Exchange as an intern in June 2006. Since September, Lam has been working in part time capacity with Civic Exchange, focusing on environmental policy in the Greater Pearl River Delta region, and is working as a researcher for a public affairs and strategic communication consultancy. The Impacts of Climate Change in Hong Kong and the Pearl River Delta English

I. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Increased concentrations of greenhouse gases in the Earth’s atmosphere are causing the planet’s climate to change. Globally, climate change will lead to increased temperatures, rising sea levels and altered weather patterns (including less predictable precipitation and a possible increase in the intensity of storms).

(a) Changes in sea level, temperatures and precipitation

The current and predicted effects on the Greater Pearl River Delta (“Greater PRD”) region (Hong Kong, Macao and the Pearl River Delta (“PRD”)) largely reflect these global trends. Sea levels and temperatures in the region have been rising slowly but steadily. Hong Kong’s annual mean temperature is predicted to rise by 3.5°C by the end of this century. While average annual rainfall will likely increase only slightly, year-to-year variability will increase, meaning more years with either heavier than usual or less than usual rainfall. Although there is not enough evidence at present to say with certainty whether tropical storms and typhoons will increase in frequency, the scale of the potential destruction that would occur if this does eventuate justifies taking every precau- tion against the risk.

Rising sea levels are a matter of great concern particularly for the PRD, where both the physical geography (the Southern part of the delta lies between -0.3m to 0.4m relative to mean sea level) and the urban development of the region render it extremely vulnerable. Within 25 years, the sea level along the coast of Guangdong Province is expected to rise 30 cm. This figure itself does not reveal the true level of the risk: raising the mean sea level by 30 cm dramatically increases the effect of storm surge (which occurs when high winds pushing on the ocean and low pressure at the centre of the storm cause water to pile up higher than the ordinary sea level). The result will be that many existing storm defences are overtopped with increasing frequency. Existing coastal and river defences built to protect low-lying areas of the Greater PRD will be inadequate if storm surges increase in height and major flooding incidents occur more frequently.

(b) Effects on ecology and human health

Rising temperatures are likely to have a negative impact on the health of people living in the region by increasing cardio-respiratory illness and mortality, heightening the risk of mosquito-borne diseases such as malaria and dengue fever, and compounding the already high levels of air pollution by accelerating photochemical reaction rates among chemical pollutants in the atmosphere.

The ecology of the region, already damaged by rapid industrialisation, will suffer a severe blow. Delicate wetland ecosystems such as the World Heritage-listed Mai Po marshes will be invaded by seawater, and if hemmed in by concrete their natural adaptive capacity will be eliminated.

The risks of climate change impacts to the region’s physical infrastructure appear to have been inadequately considered by the authorities and investors, if at all.

The roads and railways that keep the Greater PRD moving are likely to suffer damage from any increase in temperatures or rise in sea level. Higher average temperatures may cause road surfaces to deteriorate, rut, or subside; while railways may suffer shrinkage to foundations, buckled rails and distortion of soldered rails. Storms and flooding can cut above-ground railway lines and flood underground train systems.

The region’s sea and river ports are threatened by sea level rise and associated effects on storm surge and flooding. Apart from inundation of wharfs and breakwaters, changes in sea level are likely to alter patterns of sedimentation around harbours. This The Impacts of Climate Change in Hong Kong and the Pearl River Delta English

could add to the operating costs of ports, which are already battling sedimentation. The five airports in the Greater PRD – including Hong Kong’s Chek Lap Kok airport, which is built on reclaimed land – are vulnerable to severe disruption caused by storms and flooding.

(d) Impacts on utilities

Supply of fresh water in the Greater PRD, already limited, will likely come under threat from lower rainfall and sea level rise associated with climate change. In years with reduced rainfall, both the quantity and quality of fresh water in rivers will be reduced. Sea level rise could push salt water upstream by up to 3 km, or even as far as Guangzhou, affecting drinking water supply. Drainage systems will be challenged by rising sea levels causing back-flow of seawater into stormwater drainage pipes. Particularly in conjunction with high rainfall events, this will exacerbate existing flooding problems on the deltaic plain.

Supply of fuel and electricity could be significantly impacted by climate change. Demand for energy is temperature sensitive: the residential, commercial and industrial sectors all increase electricity consumption for air conditioning as temperatures rise. At the same time, electrical transmission capacity is degraded by temperature. Disruption to supply will occur if the power lines and pylons through which electricity is distributed are damaged by storms or landslips following heavy rain. In addition, transportation of raw materials, such as coal, diesel and fuel oil could be disrupted by damage to transport networks described above. The hydro-electric dams that produce over 20% of the region’s power are also vulnerable to climate change effects: either reduction of water flow in dry years, or, conversely, dam breakage or overtopping in extreme rainfall events.

(e) Economic impact

The development of methods of analysing the economic impact of climate change is at an early stage. Nevertheless, it is possible to identify ways in which the continued economic growth of the region – and, by multiplier effects, the wider Chinese economy – might be threatened. Government funds may have to be allocated to disaster management, as well as to defensive infrastructure such as sea-walls and dykes. The resulting pressure on the financial resources of local or municipal governments may lead to increased taxation, possibly including direct levies for flood control projects. Business revenues may fall if delivery of materials or finished goods or supply of power are disrupted due to flooding and storms. Shipping and transportation costs could also increase as disruption and delays cause companies to make short-term or ad hoc arrangements.

(f) Impact by industry sector

The climate change effects described above will impact differently on particular industry sectors. The property, supply chain, transportation/logistics and financial services sectors are all likely to feel the impacts of disruptions caused by heat, flooding and storms. The unavoidable conclusion is that climate change is a business issue, and one that companies in the Greater PRD will have to address in the very near future if they are to avoid risking reduction in profits or even business failure. Managing climate change risk, and factoring climate change impacts into business plans and investment decisions, will become increasingly critical.

(g) Adaptation

The old adage – that prevention is the best cure – holds true for climate change. A concerted and widespread effort to reduce greenhouse gas emissions provides the best hope for avoiding potentially disastrous effects. That said, the length of time that it takes for existing greenhouse gas concentrations to be reabsorbed by the Earth’s natural systems means the world is already going to experience some level of change.

Therefore, it is necessary to devise an adaptation strategy to increase the resilience of natural, human and economic systems to possible climate change effects and to reduce the level of damage that might otherwise occur. There is a need for such strategies The Impacts of Climate Change in Hong Kong and the Pearl River Delta English to be developed to protect the economy and communities of the Greater PRD. Key policy areas include urban planning, water resource management, flood management systems, coastal and river defence, and long-term land use planning.

(h) Observations and Initial Recommendations

Around the world, decision-makers are beginning to realise that they must be proactive, and not merely reactive, in the face of climate change.

One of the biggest challenges for policy makers in the Greater PRD will be to allocate responsibility for managing and funding climate change initiatives. At the provincial and municipal level, it seems that governments have been reluctant to invest in any areas that are not perceived to have a direct impact on economic growth.

There is an urgent need for more in-depth research into and modelling of climate change effects in the Greater PRD, so that governments, businesses and citizens can better understand what needs to be done. The Impacts of Climate Change in Hong Kong and the Pearl River Delta English

II. INTRODUCTION

“The likely speed and magnitude of climate change in the twenty first century will be unprecedented in human experience, posing daunting challenges of adaptation and mitigation for all life forms on the planet”.

China’s fast-growing contribution to climate change is well recognised. The largest emitter of anthropogenic greenhouse gases is currently the United States, but industrialising China is already in second place and catching up rapidly. The Pearl River Delta (“PRD”) region of Guangdong Province is one of the world’s leading manufacturing centres, itself becoming a major contributor to China’s emissions total.

Figure 1 - Global Atmospheric Concentration of CO2 Source: UNEP/GRID-Arendal Maps and Graphics Library.

The physical realities of climate change are already being felt in many parts of China: from droughts, to floods, to demonstrable sea level rise. The PRD region, including Hong Kong and Macao (together the “Greater PRD”), faces a severe threat on two fronts: firstly, in that it is particularly vulnerable to the effects of climate change, especially a rise in sea level; and secondly in that it is one of the wealthiest areas in China, with much to lose.

Dupont, Alan and Pearman, Graeme. Heating up the Planet - Climate Change and Security (Sydney: Lowy Institute, June 2006) 143 pp. (Quote on p. 79). [Online]. http://www.lowyinstitute.org/Publication.asp?pid=391

“Global atmospheric concentration of CO2.” UNEP/GRID-Arendal Maps and Graphics Library. 2005. UNEP/GRID-Arendal. 26 Oct 2006 http:// maps.grida.no/go/graphic/global_atmospheric_concentration The Impacts of Climate Change in Hong Kong and the Pearl River Delta English

Because climate change is expected to happen over decades or centuries, policy makers seem to succumb to the phenomenon of “creeping normalcy”: that is, a failure to recognise fully that conditions are worsening because the baseline standard for what is “normal” is gradually shifting. Other issues appear far more immediate, and industrial development and rapid economic growth tend to take priority in the decision making process. The purpose of this paper is to demonstrate that climate change is not a remote possibility, and that its impact on the economy of the PRD could be considerable.

Any physical problems or disruption that may occur as a result of climate change are likely to have a damaging effect on business operations. The PRD has been the most dynamic regional economy in China for more than two decades, attracting a significant percentage of Foreign Direct Investment (“FDI”) into China and acting as a major contributor to the country’s total Gross Domestic Product (“GDP”). The impacts of climate change in the PRD, therefore, could have serious economic repercussions for the country as a whole.

This paper begins with an overview of the scientific discussion of the potential effects of global climate change, focusing in detail on predictions of climate-related changes for the Greater PRD.

Based upon these estimates of environmental changes, the paper then identifies a number of likely practical effects on the region’s infrastructure and built assets; and looks at potential consequences of climate change for the economy of the Greater PRD. Considerable computer modelling, for which there is as yet no firmly established academic methodology, would be required to attempt to quantify the economic impacts of climate change on the Greater PRD. While that work falls outside the scope of this analysis, this paper outlines the kinds of financial implications that may result. The likely effects on selected individual industry sectors that are important to the region are also explored.

The paper concludes with a discussion of the measures that government and businesses will need to consider in order to adapt to these future conditions. Complementary to strategies for mitigation (the effort to limit climate change by reducing greenhouse gas emissions), a strategy of adaptation to climate change effects is vital for both business and government.

The “adaptive capacity” of a system, as defined by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (“IPCC”), consists in its ability to adjust to climate change, to moderate potential damages, to take advantages of opportunities or to cope with the consequences. A failure to build up adaptive capacity in the Greater PRD, in light of the region’s existing sensitivity to climate change effects, will leave the area particularly vulnerable. During the next 10 years, decisions about replacement and refurbishment of many of the assets in the Greater PRD will be made, together with investment decisions on longer-lived assets, which may face significantly increased climate stresses in the future. In order to safeguard the economy and society of the region, it is essential that climate change be incorporated into decision-making processes as soon as possible.

Diamond, Jared. “Why Do Some Societies Make Disastrous Decisions?” Lewis Thomas Prize Lecture, The Rockefeller Institute, New York, 27th March 2003.

Whilst recognising that mitigation efforts are crucial, this paper’s purpose is not to discuss mitigation strategies for the region.

White, K.S. et al, Climate Change 2001: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability (International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), 2001). The Impacts of Climate Change in Hong Kong and the Pearl River Delta English

Figure 2 - The Pearl River Delta from Space Source: NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center Scientific Visualization Studio

III. CLIMATE CHANGE PREDICTIONS

(1) Global Climate Change Predictions

There is now compelling evidence that human activities are changing the world’s climate rapidly. In the past several years, with improved climate change measurement techniques and observation of the speed of glaciers melting in the Arctic and Antarctic, some scientists are predicting that the impacts of climate change could happen much faster than previously thought – although it remains difficult to be certain about just how fast.

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (“IPCC”) was set up by the World Meteorological Organisation and the United Na- tions in 1986, and is a key part of the international regime for assessing the impact of climate change. The main function of the IPCC is to provide governments and the international community with authoritative scientific assessments on climate change, its potential impact and the possible response strategies.

The IPCC’s Third Assessment Report, released in 2001, presented a comprehensive review of current and predicted effects of climate change on different regions of the globe. The Fourth Assessment Report is due to be released in 2007, until which time the Third Assessment Report is viewed as an authoritative source of data. The discussion that follows sets out the IPCC’s findings, but also highlights the growing body of scientific knowledge that holds that the IPCC’s predictions – particularly with regard to the rate of sea level rise – are overly conservative.

Indications are that the Fourth Report will reconfirm what is in the Third Report with updated information. The Impacts of Climate Change in Hong Kong and the Pearl River Delta English

(a) Rising Temperatures

Greenhouse gases in the Earth’s atmosphere (the most important being water vapour, carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide) absorb infra red (heat) radiation that would otherwise escape from the Earth’s surface and atmosphere to space. Heat is trapped within the lower atmosphere, causing gradual warming of the Earth. This is a natural phenomenon that provides the conditions necessary to sustain life on Earth: without it, the average temperature would be around -18°C. However, the natural chemical composition of the Earth’s atmosphere has been altered by human activities, enhancing the greenhouse effect and causing the planet to warm more than usual.

Levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere have increased during the last two centuries, largely as a result of the burning of fossil fuels, agriculture and the clearing of vegetation cover that acts as a natural sink for carbon dioxide. By 2030, concentrations of carbon dioxide are likely to be 60% higher than they were before the Industrial Revolution.

Figure 3 - Increase in Temperature Anomaly Source: NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies

The global mean surface temperature of the Earth has increased by approximately 0.6ºC during the twentieth century. According to Dr. James Hansen, Director of the Goddard Institute at the National Aeronautics & Space Administration (“NASA”), an increase of about 0.5ºC occurred after 1950, the same period during which man-made greenhouse gases increased by 70%.10 The IPCC predicts that globally averaged surface temperature will rise by about 3°C (with a range of 1.4°C to 5.8°C depending on the emission scenarios) over the period 1990 to 2100.11 This warming trend will be more marked at the poles than at the equator. Even if levels of greenhouse gases are stabilised, temperatures will continue to rise for several decades.12

Hong Kong Observatory, 2003, “What is Greenhouse Effect?” [Online]. http://www.hko.gov.hk/wxinfo/climat/greenhs/e_grnhse.htm

Dupont and Pearman: p. 10.

Houghton, J.T. et al (eds.), Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis Contribution of Working Group I to the Third Assessment Report of the IPCC (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2001).

10 Hansen, James, “Defusing the Global Warming Time Bomb”. Scientific American, 290 No. 3, March 2004: pp. 68-77. [Online] http://pubs. giss.nasa.gov/docs/2004/2004_Hansen1.pdf

11 Houghton, J.T. et al: chap. 9.

12 Houghton, J.T. et al: chap. 9. 10 The Impacts of Climate Change in Hong Kong and the Pearl River Delta English

This warming is expected to have wide-ranging effects on ecosystems, as well as sea levels and weather patterns, as discussed below. One of the most worrisome effects of the warming is its effect on the world’s ice reserves – not only in the Arctic, Antarctic and Greenland, but also on glaciers far from the sea that provide plant, animal and human communities with meltwater essential to their survival. For example, a 24-year study by scientists in China stated in 2004 that the total area of China’s glaciers had shrunk by approximately 5.5% since the 1960s.13 If current warming trends continue, it is estimated that as much as 64% of the glacier mass may be gone by 2050.14 Significant melting would release a more generous water supply in the short term, but the flow would ultimately dry up, with devastating impact on the 23% of China’s population living in the western region that depends on glacial melt for summer water supply.15

Figure 4 - Icebergs Calving Source: The Goddard Institute of Space Studies

(b) Altered Weather Patterns

Global warming may result in altered weather patterns, with potentially serious implications for some parts of the world. While global average rainfall may increase, larger year-to-year variations in rainfall are likely to occur over many areas, causing extremes of drought and flood. Higher temperatures will increase the risk of drought in some areas, if the rate of water evaporation increases without a compensating increase in rainfall and some water courses dry up. Such consequences are hard to predict, though, as evaporation rates in some areas have fallen dramatically as a result of increased particulate pollution and cloud cover.

Parts of northern and western China have been enduring severe droughts in recent years, which could be greatly worsened by continued warming.

The Third Assessment Report also indicated that higher surface temperatures may increase the frequency and severity of extraor- dinary weather events, such as storms triggered by climatic extremes such as El Niño.16 Analysis suggests that weather-related events such as floods and storms have already risen in frequency and intensity since the 1950s, and a recent report by the insurance industry estimates that losses related to climate change could exceed US$100 billion a year over the next century.17

13 Shi, Yafeng, China Glacier Inventory (Shanghai: Shanghai Kexuepuji Press, 2005).

14 Yao Tandong, head of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau Research Institute. Quoted in “Glacier Study Reveals Chilling Prediction”, China Daily, 23rd September 2004.

15 Stern, Nicholas, “Stern Review on the Economics of Climate Change”, November 2006, p. 63. [Online]. http://www.hm-treasury.gov.uk/inde- pendent_reviews/stern_review_economics_climate_change/sternreview_index.cfm

16 Houghton, J.T. et al: chap. 9.

17 MunichRe, Topics 2000: Natural Catastrophes: the Current Position (Munich: Munich Reinsurance Company, 1999) 126 pp. The Impacts of Climate Change in 11 Hong Kong and the Pearl River Delta English

Rising atmospheric temperatures cause sea level rise through two mechanisms: by transferring heat directly to the ocean, causing the water to expand; and by causing land-ice in mountain glaciers and the major ice sheets to melt, and the fresh water to flow into the ocean.18 According to the IPCC, sea levels have risen between 10 cm and 25 cm in the twentieth century.19 Research demonstrates that sea levels around the coast of China, for example, have risen by an average rate of 2.3 mm per year between 1965 and 1995, while ocean temperatures off China’s coast have also risen significantly over roughly the same period.20

The Third Assessment Report projected that global mean sea level (“MSL”) will rise by 9-88 cm (depending on emission scenarios and climate models) by 2100, with a central value of 48 cm, which is 3.3 times the observed rate over the twentieth century. Even with drastic reductions in greenhouse gas emissions, it is expected that sea level will continue to rise for centuries beyond 2100 because of the long response time of the global ocean system.

These calculations of sea level rise are based on the gradual effects of changes in snowfall, evaporation and melting. Other scientists, however, believe that the IPCC’s figures greatly underestimate the risks.

According to Hansen, the critical factor in predicting how fast sea levels will rise is how fast the major ice sheets respond to the warming of the ocean. Hansen argues that ice sheet disintegration could happen very rapidly, as rising sea level itself tends to lift marine ice shelves and detach them from land ice. As ice shelves break up, this accelerates movement of land ice to the ocean. The process could be further accelerated by increased absorption of sunlight by ice sheets darkened by pollution or meltwater.21 These reinforcing effects mean that the rate of change would be moderate until real collapse begins, after which changes could be extremely rapid.

Figure 5 - The Southern Tip of the Greenland Ice Sheet Source: NASA MODIS Land Rapid Response Team

18 Dupont and Pearman: p. 7ff.

19 Houghton, J.T. et al: chap. 11.

20 Han, M. et at, “Potential Impacts of Sea Level Rise on China’s Coastal Environment and Cities: A National Assessment,” Journal of Coastal Research, Special Issue 14, 1995: pp. 79-95.

21 Hansen: p. 74. 12 The Impacts of Climate Change in Hong Kong and the Pearl River Delta English

Observations of the Arctic ice cap lead some scientists to argue that a tipping point has already been passed, after which ice loss can only accelerate. By 2004, the ice cap had lost over 20% of its extent as well as much of its thickness, prompting scientists to warn that it may melt away entirely in summer by 2100. During summer of 2005, the melt rate accelerated sharply, shrink- ing the Arctic ice cap by 300,000 km2. New estimates of the rate of melt of the Greenland ice cap, obtained in 2006 from two stationary satellites, indicate that Greenland’s ice is vanishing at a rate of 235 km3 per year. Extrapolating from historic climate conditions many centuries ago when higher temperatures melted much of the Greenland ice cap, some scientists estimate that if the Greenland ice sheet were now to collapse entirely, world-wide sea level could rise by 6 m.22

Figure 6 - Increase in Melt Area of Greenland Ice Sheet Source: Konrad Steffen and Russell Huff, CIRES, University of Colorado at Boulder

It is beyond the scope of this paper to evaluate the scientific evidence for the rate and extent of sea level rise. Despite the work carried out by the Goddard Institute and other organisations, there is still a body of consensus around the more conservative IPCC forecasts. Since the purpose of this study is to demonstrate that even a very small change in climate could have enormous repercussions for the Greater PRD, this paper uses estimates based on IPCC forecasts as base case assumptions. However, it is important to note that the pace of change could be much more rapid.

All seaboards are vulnerable to some degree to the effects of sea level rise.23 Even a small increase in average sea level, as predicted by the IPCC, has threatening implications for coastal communities because historical benchmarks for high tide or spring tide levels would be surpassed and they could be hit by far greater storm surge.

22 NASA, , “Greenland Ice Sheet Flows Faster During Summer Melting”, NASA News Archive, 6th June, 2002. [Online]. http://earthobservatory. nasa.gov/Newsroom/NasaNews/2002/200206069411.html

23 De la Vega-Leinert, A.C. et al (eds.), Proceedings of the SURVAS Expert Workshop on European Vulnerability and Adaptation to Accelerated Sea-Level Rise. Hamburg, , 19-21 June 2000 (Enfield: Flood Hazard Research Centre, Middlesex University, 2000) 152 pp. The Impacts of Climate Change in 13 Hong Kong and the Pearl River Delta English

Figure 7 - Storm Surge Source: NASA’s Earth Observatory24

Storm surge, which is associated with a low pressure weather system like a typhoon, occurs when high winds pushing on the ocean and low pressure at the centre of the storm cause water to pile up higher than the ordinary sea level.25 Storm surges, particularly when they occur during a high tide, can cause considerable damage to coastal communities. With MSL rise of 50 cm (close to the central level of the IPCC’s Third Assessment Report’s estimate), computer modelling indicates that nearly 92 million people per year worldwide would be affected by flooding.26

(d) Interaction Between Climate Change Impacts and Human Activities

The natural consequences of climate change are exacerbated by human activity and urban development. Changes to water ta- bles and natural water courses may increase salinisation and flood flows, for example, while deforestation and land degradation worsen drought-induced dust storms and soil erosion events.

The effects of sea level rise may be compounded by the subsidence of coastal lands. Rapid development of coastal cities in China, which has led to enormous over-exploitation of groundwater, has accelerated ground subsidence in many areas.27 Deltaic coasts in China are already encountering severe problems of relative sea level rise as a consequence of tectonically and anthro- pogenically induced land subsidence.28

Many local environments are already are under pressure as a result of a combination of factors, including increased population pressure, habitat destruction and severe pollution. The effects of climate change will create an additional and largely deleteri- ous series of impacts on already over-stressed natural resources, with the potential for serious ecological and socio-economic consequences.

24 [Online]. http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Library/Hurricanes/Images/storm_surge.gif

25 University of Illinois Department of Atmospheric Sciences, “Storm Surge – a concern to coastal residents,” (n.d.) [Online]. http://ww2010. atmos.uiuc.edu/(Gh)/guides/mtr/hurr/damg/surg.rxml

26 Baarse, G., Development of an Operational Tool for Global Vulnerability Assessment (GVA) - Update of the Number of People at Risk Due to Sea Level Rise and Increased Flooding Probability (The Hague: CZM Centre, Ministry of Transport, Public Works and Water Management, 1995) 17 pp.

27 Chinese State Oceanic Administration, “Bulletin on Sea Levels”, February 2004.

28 Watson, Robert, Zinyowera, Marufu and Moss, Richard, The Regional Impacts of Climate Change: An Assessment of Vulnerability (IPCC, 2000) 330 pp. [Online]. http://www.grida.no/climate/ipcc/regional/275.htm 14 The Impacts of Climate Change in Hong Kong and the Pearl River Delta English

(2) Climate Change Predictions for the Greater Pearl River Delta Region

Accurate predictions of climate change effects become even more difficult at the sub-system level, as there are many more factors to consider.29 Specific estimates of the effects in the Greater PRD are subject to a high degree of uncertainty and are the subject of debate. Nevertheless, published climate projections for the Greater PRD broadly concur with the IPCC’s analysis.

The Greater PRD encompasses Hong Kong, Macao and the PRD of south-central Guangdong Province, an alluvial plain formed by the lower West, North and East Rivers of the Pearl River water system, characterised by a network of criss-crossing rivers and low elevations.30 Ground level in the delta is close to MSL, with the northern and central parts lying at 0.4-2.4 m above MSL and the southern part of the delta slightly lower, ranging from 0.4 m to -0.3 m relative to MSL.31

The PRD is the third-largest delta in China, with a population of over 40 million, according to the census in 2000.32 As a metropolitan region, the Greater PRD is anchored by the cities of Hong Kong and Guangzhou, and well over half the population are now urban residents. Since 1979, the area between Hong Kong and Guangzhou and around Macao has been rapidly developed, and former agricultural land converted to industrial use.

Figures 8 & 9 - Hong Kong and Shenzhen from Space in 1979 & 2004

29 Dupont and Pearman: p. 16.

30 Yang, H. “Potential effects of sea-level rise in the Pearl River Delta area: Preliminary study results and a comprehensive adaptation strategy”, in Smith, J.N. et al (ed.), Adapting to Climate Change: An International Perspective (New York: Springer-Verlag, 1996) 475 pp.

31 Huang, Zhenguo et al, “Coastal inundation due to sea level rise in the Pearl River Delta, China”, Natural Hazards 33, 2004: pp. 247-264.

32 Enright, Michael et al, The Greater Pearl River Delta (Hong Kong: InvestHK, 3rd edition, October 2005) 146 pp. [Online] http://www.investhk.gov.hk/doc/InvestHK_GPRD_Booklet_English571.pdf The Impacts of Climate Change in 15 Hong Kong and the Pearl River Delta English

Figure 10 - Land use in Greater PRD: red colour represents urbanised areas. The image on the left is from 2004; the image on the right is from 1990. Source: Institute for the Environment, HKUST

The northern fringe of the deltaic plain was reclaimed as early as the Tang Dynasty (around 1,400 years ago). The speed of reclamation has gradually increased since then, and during the last 50 years, reclaimed lands were merged into just over 100 enclosures, protected by flood defences.33 Much of the land that has been recently developed into urban areas and industrial facilities lies in the floodplain of the Pearl River and its tributaries.

Due to its topography, the history of land reclamation and the fact that much of the area is a natural floodplain, the Greater PRD has always been under threat from natural hazards such as river or tidal flooding, typhoons and saline water intrusion. These hazards will be intensified by climate change. The sections that follow look at predicted changes in temperature, rainfall, storms and sea level in the region.

(a) Increase in Temperature

Based on data collected by the National Climate Centre of the China Meteorological Administration from 28 stations in southern China for the period 1951-2000, the Hong Kong Observatory (“HKO”) has confirmed that average temperatures in the region have increased.34 The annual mean temperature at the HKO headquarters has also risen by approximately 0.12°C per decade since 1885 (approximately 1.44°C in total).35

33 Huang: p. 249.

34 It has been difficult to establish a clear historical record for temperatures experienced in different parts of China. Some IPCC data suggests that over the past one hundred years, there has been a 1°C-2°C temperature decrease in the eastern half of south China, except for the coastal area. (Watson, Zinyowera and Moss: p.265.) More recent studies have confirmed a warming trend for China as a whole (Wang Z et al, “An updating analysis of the climate change in China”, ACTA Met. Sinica. 62, 2004), and report that southern China has also experienced warming over the last fifty years (Wang, Z et al, “Impact of climate change on agriculture”, , in Qin, D. (ed.) Popular Topics on Global Climate Change Series, 2003). It is believed that warming will continue until the end of this century. (Hui, J and Erda, L, “Building adaptive capacity for sustainable food production in China”, 2006. [Online] http://developmentfirst.org/Dakar/adaptivesustainablefoodproductionchina_hui&erda.pdf).

35 Leung, Y.K. et al, “Climate Forecasting – What The Temperature And Rainfall In Hong Kong Are Going To Be Like In 100 Years” (Hong Kong: Hong Kong Observatory, 2006) 14 pp. [Online]. http://www.science.gov.hk/paper/HKO_YKLeung.pdf 16 The Impacts of Climate Change in Hong Kong and the Pearl River Delta English

The HKO has also published predictions of temperature in Hong Kong in the last decade of this century relative to the period 1961- 1990.36 By the end of this century, the HKO predicts that annual mean temperatures will have risen by 3.5ºC. The annual number of very hot days (maximum temperature of 33ºC or above) in summer will roughly double, rising from 11 days to 24 days; while hot nights (minimum temperature of 28ºC or above) will rise to 30 per year – four times the current normal level. The number of cold days (minimum temperature of 12ºC or below) in winter will decrease from 21 to less than one day per year.37

Figure 11 - Past and Projected Annual Mean Temperature for Hong Kong Source: Hong Kong Observatory

Similar effects are likely to be felt in the Greater PRD as a whole, with a particular impact on its cities, many of which already experience the “urban heat island effect” (i.e. higher temperatures in densely built-up urban areas due to heat emitted from buildings and the characteristics of the airflow).

(b) Rainfall

Simulations have revealed that rainfall in East Asia and China would increase under a scenario of doubled carbon dioxide concentration.38 The HKO predicts that average annual rainfall will increase by about 1% per decade in the 21st century. This result is similar to that obtained for Guangdong by the National Climate Centre of the China Meteorological Administration.39

36 Leung et al: p. 3.

37 Leung et al:, p. 3 ff.

38 Zhao, Z. et al, “Advances on detection and projection of impacts of human activity upon climate change over East Asia and China”, in 1999-2002 China National Report on Meteorology and Atmospheric Sciences for the 23rd General Assembly of International Union of Ge- odesy and Geophysics June 0-July 2003 (Beijing: China Meteorological Press, 2003). [Online]. http://led.scsio.ac.cn/IAMAS/ 03%20ADVANCES%20ON%20DETECTION.htm

39 Leung et al: p. 4. The Impacts of Climate Change in 17 Hong Kong and the Pearl River Delta English

This additional rainfall will not be evenly spread: the HKO also warns that year-to-year variability in rainfall will increase, meaning more years with either above average or below average rainfall.40 By the end of this century, the number of heavy rain days41 in a year is projected to increase by around one day per year.42

Similar weather patterns are likely to occur throughout the Greater PRD, with allowances for local anomalies. Given the expected variability in future rainfall, it is necessary to examine a wide range of impacts on the region that could be caused by different weather patterns.

In the years of low rainfall, there will be increased pressure on water resources in the Greater PRD, which are already under enormous stress from increased population, urban development and large-scale manufacturing operations, many of which are extremely water-intensive. Agricultural and industrial water usage in China tends to be extremely inefficient and the water sector infrastructure in the PRD is often inadequate to meet the demands being made upon it.

Conversely, heavy and prolonged rainfall may produce excess run-off (rainwater that neither evaporates nor penetrates the surface to become groundwater43), which will increase the risks of flooding (already a serious problem throughout the Greater PRD) and landslide damage. This would impact buildings and infrastructure, and cause regular disruption to transportation and business activities. Even a highly-developed city can suffer heavy losses from a single heavy rain episode. For example, the heavy rain associated with Typhoon Nari in September 2001 caused severe flooding in Taipei, inflicting an insured damage of around US$500 million.44

Figure 12 - Landslide Damage in Hong Kong Source: Norwegian Geotechnical Institute

40 The HKO predicts that there will be 6 years with annual rainfall above 3,343 mm (the highest rainfall recorded at the HKO headquarters in the past 120 years) and 3 years with annual rainfall less than 901 mm, the lowest figure for 120 years.

41 That is, days with hourly rainfall greater than 30 mm, which is one of the criteria for issuing an Amber Rainstorm warning.

42 The HKO predicts that the number of days with heavy rainfall will increase from the 1961-1990 normal of 5.6 days to 6.5 days: Leung et al: p. 5.

43 University of Illinois Department of Atmospheric Sciences, “Runoff: Transfer of Landwater to the Oceans”, [Online]. http://ww2010.atmos. uiuc.edu/(Gh)/guides/mtr/hyd/run.rxml.

44 Munich Re Group, Megacities-Megarisks. Trends and Challenges for Insurance and Risk Management (Munich: Munich Re Group, 2004). 18 The Impacts of Climate Change in Hong Kong and the Pearl River Delta English

There is some debate among climate scientists concerning the impact of global warming on the frequency and intensity of tropical cyclone activity.

No theoretical basis currently exists for projecting changes in the frequency of tropical cyclones,45 and the HKO recently confirmed that there is not yet a definitive answer to whether tropical cyclone activity has or will increase due to global warming.46 Indeed, observations over the last 40 years suggest that the annual number of tropical cyclones landing over the south China coast within 300 km of Hong Kong has been decreasing at a rate of about 0.17 per decade, from about 3 in the 1960s to about 2.5 in the 1990s.47 Scientists from the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology (“HKUST”) believe that warming of the western Pacific warm pool may cause typhoons to track further east, meaning that they will be more likely to miss Hong Kong and hit Japan - this would in fact be likely to result in more rainfall over Hong Kong, and so increase the risk of flooding.

There is some emerging evidence, however, to suggest that rising sea surface temperatures could lead to an increase in the intensity of tropical cyclones.48 Some scientists claim to have identified a trend over the past 30 years toward more frequent and intense tropical cyclones49 – a trend that they say can be directly linked to warmer sea surface temperatures.50 These claims have, however, sparked controversy amongst the scientific community, with an alternative view that the recent increase in occurrence of intense typhoons is not a trend, but part of large interdecadal variations of tropical storm activity.51

Some Chinese scientists maintain that the unusual ferocity of the 2006 typhoon season, which began about a month earlier than usual and has left thousands dead in southern China, was related to global warming. Qin Dahe, Director of the China Meteorologi- cal Administration, recently said that “against the backdrop of global warming, more and more strong and unusual climatic and atmospheric events are taking place. The strength of typhoons is increasing, the destructiveness of typhoons that have made landfall is greater and the scope in which they are travelling is farther than normal.”52

45 Landsea, Chris, “Frequently Asked Questions – What May Happen to Tropical Cyclone Activity due to Global Warming?”, Atlantic Oceano- graphic and Meteorological Laboratory, Hurricane Research Division, October, 2005. [Online]. http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/tcfaq/G3.html.

46 Yeung, K.H., “Keynote Address III. Issues related to global warming – myths, realities and warnings”, Hong Kong Observatory, June 2006. 16pp. [Online]. http://www.weather.gov.hk/publica/reprint/r647.pdf

47 Hong Kong Observatory, “Global warming - the Hong Kong connection”, August 2003. [Online]. http://www.hko.gov.hk/wxinfo/news/2003/ pre0801e.htm

48 Landsea, Chris.

49 Webster, P.J. et al, “Changes in tropical cyclone number, duration and intensity in a warming environment”, Science 16th September 2005, Vol. 309 No. 5742: pp. 1844-1846.

50 Webster, P.J. et al, “Response to Comment on ‘Changes in Tropical Cyclone Number, Duration and Intensity in a Warming Environment’”, Sci- ence 24 March 2006, Vol 311 No. 5768 p. 1713c; and Hoyos, C.D. et al, “Deconvolution of the Factors Contributing to the Increase in Global Hurricane Intensity”, Science 312 (5770), 7th April 2006: p. 94.

51 For example, Chan, Johnny C.L., “Comment on “Changes in Tropical Cyclone Number, Duration, and Intensity in a Warming Environment” , Science 311 (5768), 24th March 2006: p. 1713b. [Online] http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/full/311/5768/1713b ; Yeung et al: p. 9

52 Agence France Press, “Warming Reportedly Behind China’s Killer Typhoons”, Beijing, 15th August 2006. [Online]. http://www.taipeitimes. com/News/world/archives/2006/08/15/2003323278 The Impacts of Climate Change in 19 Hong Kong and the Pearl River Delta English

As it is, typhoons regularly hit southern China and can cause enormous destruction and loss of life where they make landfall. For example, Typhoon Prapiroon, in August 2006, killed over fifty people and caused an estimated US$675 million in damages in Guangdong Province alone.53 In the same month, Typhoon Saomai, the most powerful to hit China for 50 years, wrecked more than 50,000 homes and sank over 1,000 ships.54 Violent windstorms bring additional loads to bear on buildings, affecting both structural and non-structural elements,55 and threaten power lines and other infrastructure. High wind speeds also affect the safe use of equipment such as cranes and scaffolding, causing regular disruption to construction and to the operation of major facilities, such as ports and airports.

Even if there is no change to the current level of tropical cyclone activity, the destruction wreaked by storms on coastal regions can be expected to increase because of higher storm surges associated with higher sea levels. The likelihood and frequency of overtopping and breaches of coastal defences will be greatly increased. If climate change does in fact lead to more frequent or more violent tropical storms hitting the Greater PRD region in the future, the damage inflicted by these severe weather events could be intensified even further.

Figure 13 - Storm Surge, Supertyphoon 18W (Bilis), August 2000. Photograph by Geoff Mackley.

(d) Relative Sea Level Rise

A number of detailed studies have been carried out in China over the last 10-15 years that attempt to predict relative sea level rise in the Greater PRD and the consequent risk of flooding and inundation of parts of the region. There is still a great deal of work to be done to reach agreement on the extent of the rise in sea level, its effects on water levels in the estuary and river systems and the consequent impact on the region.

There is a consensus, however, that sea level rise of some magnitude is happening and will continue to take place in the Greater PRD, and that both the physical geography and urban development of the region render it extremely vulnerable to the effects of

53 Dartmouth Flood Observatory 2006 Global Register of Major Flood Events, 2nd October, 2006. [Online]. http://www.dartmouth.edu/~floods/ Archives/2006sum.htm

54 Associated Press, “China Death Toll From Typhoon Climbs to 319”, MSNBC Weather, 15th August 2006. [Online]. http://www.msnbc.msn. com/id/14284650/

55 Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), Manual for Estimating the Socio-Economic Effects of Natural Disasters (Washington D.C.: United Nations, 1999) 295 pp. 20 The Impacts of Climate Change in Hong Kong and the Pearl River Delta English

that sea level rise. Many lowland areas are likely to be inundated.56 Research led by Du Bilan of China’s National Bureau of Ocea- nography in 2002 noted that the Greater PRD is one of the regions most vulnerable to rising sea levels.57

Investigation by the Chinese Academy of Sciences in 1994 found that natural progradation (seaward change in the shape of the coastline due to build-up of sediment) of the coast and active land reclamation activities have resulted in annual sea level rise of 0.5-1 mm in the distributaries in the estuarine area, which is expected to continue for some time. The Academy predicted that sea level in the PRD will rise 15-30 cm by 2010, 30-40 cm by 2030 and 40-60 cm by 2050.58 Because of vertical crustal movement variations, ground subsidence and rising estuary levels, the rate at which the sea level rises will differ in various parts of the delta.59

In an eight-year study published in 2003, the Guangdong Academy of Sciences announced that the sea level along the coast of Guangdong Province is rising at 1 cm each year and could rise 30 cm by 2030. According to calculations by China’s National Ma- rine Data and Information Service, if sea level rises 30 cm, it could inundate an area of 1,154 km2 of coastal regions and islands at its highest tidemark. Guangzhou, Doumen County and Foshan are particularly vulnerable to flooding.60

A recent study by Zhenguo Huang et al (the “Huang Research”), based on tidal records of Hong Kong and Macao and factors such as estuarine backwater effects and long-term subsidence, agrees that a rise of approximately 30 cm in relative sea level at the mouth of the Pearl River estuary is possible by 2030.61 The research also points out that sea level will vary at different points within the estuary, reflecting estuarine backwater effects and other physical factors.

Flooding is already a recurrent problem in many parts of the PRD, including many urban areas. For example, Guangzhou regularly floods after heavy rains or high tides. Flooding is also a concern in Hong Kong, where rural low-lying areas, natural floodplains in the northern part of the territory and some locations in the older urban areas suffer serious flooding during heavy rain.62

Figures 14 & 15 - Flooding in Guangzhou (Left) & Foshan (RIght) Source: www.ycwb.com (left), www.news.bbc.co.uk (right)

56 Yang: p. 265ff.

57 Zhang, Zhiping, “Rising Seas Threaten Coastal Cities”, Beijing Review , 47 no. 9, 4th March 2004: pp. 24-25. [Online]. http://www.bjreview. com.cn/200409/Nation-200409(A).htm

58 Earth Science Division, Chinese Academy of Sciences (eds.), Impact of Sea Level Rise on the Deltaic Regions of China and its Mitigation (Beijing: Science Press, 1994) 353 pp. (in Chinese)

59 Yang: p. 267ff.

60 Heng, Li, “Guangzhou Likely to be Inundated Due to Rise of Sea Level by 2030” People’s Daily, 25th July 2003. [Online]. http://english.people. com.cn/200307/25/eng20030725_120967.shtml

61 Huang: p. 254.

62 Fung Wing Yee, Characterising the Climate Change Impact in Hong Kong (Hong Kong: Environmental Protection Department, 2004): 132 pp. [Online]. http://www.epd.gov.hk/epd/english/environmentinhk/air/studyrpts/files/Climate_Change_Report_final.pdf The Impacts of Climate Change in 21 Hong Kong and the Pearl River Delta English

Coastal and river flooding in the Greater PRD is influenced by several factors: rainfall, high tide, high winds and typhoons and storm surge. Due to backwater effects and the funnel-like shape of the estuary, water levels are higher upstream. A combination of weather and tidal factors that causes water levels to reach more than 3 m is already well-known in parts of the Pearl River estuary. According to the Huang Research, the present-day maximum tidal range increases up-estuary from 2.34 m near Hong Kong, to 3.31 m at Zhewan and 3.35 m at Nansha.63 A 30 cm rise in sea level would have a significant impact on the high tide levels in the Greater PRD. Similarly, increased sea level would magnify the effect of storm surges. On the occasions when all these weather and tidal factors coincide, storm surge in the region can be dramatic. When sea level rise is added into the equation, the potential for extensive flooding is considerable.

Extensive modelling work has been carried out by the Institute for the Environment at HKUST in order to assess the impact of sea level rise during flood seasons and to estimate the geographical extent of possible future flooding in the Greater PRD. Projections have been developed assuming a range of scenarios in which sea levels in the delta are increased, due to high tide or storm surge, and flooding overwhelms any coastal defences that may have been constructed. The following simulations illustrate the area of land in the Greater PRD that would be underwater if water levels were to rise between 1 and 6 m above today’s MSL.

Figure 16 - Greater PRD at today’s mean sea level (light blue represents sea and dark blue represents the most low-lying land)

63 Huang: p. 253. 22 The Impacts of Climate Change in Hong Kong and the Pearl River Delta English

Figure 17 - Greater PRD if water level rises 3m - (average level of severe floods today): Inundation of Guangzhou Metropolitan Area, Zhuhai and Jiangmen, as well as floodplain.

Figure 18 - Greater PRD if water level Rises 4m: inundation of almost entire area between Zhuhai, Jiangmen and Guangzhou, flooding towards Dongguan. The Impacts of Climate Change in 23 Hong Kong and the Pearl River Delta English

Figure 19 - Greater PRD if water level rises 6 m: inundation spreads further into Western PRD and around Dongguan; Hong Kong severely affected. Source: Institute for the Environment, HKUST

Return periods

Over the last 40 years, 190 flood events were recorded at 39 tide gauges in the Greater PRD. Using these, the Huang Research calculated base-line “return periods” (i.e. the time period between one flood of a certain magnitude and the next one of the same magnitude) and projected future return periods assuming a sea level rise of 30 cm. For a significant portion of the delta, it is expected that return periods would be significantly reduced, so that, for example, a flood level that historically occurred only once in 100 years may in future happen once in 50 or 20 years.64

Similar research by the HKO, looking at Hong Kong specifically, estimated that if MSL in Hong Kong were to rise by 48 cm (the mean level for global sea level rise by 2100 stated in the IPCC’s Third Assessment Report), a high water level with a historical return period of 50 years originally would have its return period shortened to about 3 years.65

IV. CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS

(1) Impacts on Human Health

Very hot weather is not just uncomfortable – it can be deadly. An increase in the frequency or severity of heat waves is likely to increase (predominantly cardio-respiratory) illness and mortality. The IPCC found, based on a study of Shanghai residents over 65 years of age, that 34°C was the threshold temperature for heat-related mortality; and that by 2050 there will be 3.6 to 7.1 times

64 Huang: p. 254 ff.

65 Yeung: p. 8. 24 The Impacts of Climate Change in Hong Kong and the Pearl River Delta English

more heat-related deaths in that city.66

Diseases of many kinds are sensitive to changes in climatic conditions. Increased temperature is likely to make conditions more favourable for mosquitoes, increasing the risk of mosquito-borne diseases such as malaria and dengue fever. Food-borne and water-borne diseases are also predicted to become more intense and more frequent, as conditions become more favourable for bacteria and micro-organisms.67

Climate change may also lead to more frequent occurrences of both very hot weather and very high levels of air pollution. The IPCC predicts that global warming will accelerate photochemical reaction rates among chemical pollutants in the atmosphere, increasing oxidants in many urban areas. High levels of photochemical oxidants are associated with eye irritation, severe respiratory irritation, increased frequency of asthmatic attacks of susceptible persons and decreased pulmonary functions.68

To the extent that higher temperatures cause inconvenience to residents and visitors – be it uncomfortable working conditions, higher air conditioning costs, or, far more seriously, increased air pollution and attendant health risks – Hong Kong and the cities of the PRD will suffer a negative public response, which could have a serious impact on the livelihood of those cities in the future. Air pollution in Hong Kong is already a serious problem.69 Even as efforts may be made to use cleaner energy and reduce air pollution in the delta region, a rise in temperature is likely to worsen this situation.

(2) Ecological Impact

The effects of climate change upon the ecology of the Greater PRD are likely to be significant and will compound the already far- reaching impacts of rapid urban development and industrialisation. Coastal ecosystems are sensitive to the impacts of climate change, and loss or alteration of habitat may reduce the populations of many species of flora and fauna. Sea level rise will destroy the ecological and environmental balance along the coastal areas.70

For example, according to the IPCC, changes in temperature, rainfall patterns and evapotranspiration (evaporation of water into the atmosphere from the leaves and stems of plants) may cause lake and stream levels to decline or fluctuate widely. This could alter habitat characteristics and vegetation, and may cause a decline in species productivity, especially of fish and invertebrates. Declines in biodiversity would result from severe water quality deterioration (for example, low dissolved oxygen levels, high concentrations of toxic substances or high temperatures) during extended low-flow periods in the summer, or from drying of previously perennial streams. These effects would be worsened in systems that are strongly affected by human activities and increased demands for water resources.71

Ecological problems that are likely to occur in the Greater PRD due to sea level rise include coastal erosion, salinisation of soil and groundwater and deterioration of shoals and marshes. This could cause the loss of coastal wetlands, a substantial change in

66 Watson, Zinyowera and Moss: p. 276.

67 Australian Greenhouse Office, Department of the Environment & Heritage, Australia, “Impacts & Adaptation – Health”, 2006. [Online]. http:// www.greenhouse.gov.au/impacts/health.html

68 Watson, Zinyowera, and Moss: p. 277.

69 Increasing media coverage and research on this issue, including: Loh, Christine, Boomtown to Gloomtown: The Implications of Inaction (Hong Kong: CLSA, September 2006) 60 pp.; Barron, Bill et al, Owning up to Responsibility for Manufacturing Contributions to the Pearl River Delta’s Poor Air Quality (Hong Kong: Institute for the Environment, HKUST /Civic Exchange, March 2006) 56 pp.

70 According to Ding Yihui, a climate expert with the China Meteorological Administration, speaking in 2002. See “Global Warming Accelerates China’s Sea Level Rise”, People’s Daily, 13th April 2002. [Online]. http://english.people.com.cn/200204/13/eng20020413_93966.shtml

71 Watson, Zinyowera, and Moss: p. 268. The Impacts of Climate Change in 25 Hong Kong and the Pearl River Delta English the ecosystem and a further encroachment on the habitat of rare species.72

Flooding could result in increased sediment and nutrient levels in estuaries and coastal ecosystems, with an enormous impact on habitat areas essential to many fish species.73 Wetlands in the Greater PRD (such as Mai Po in Hong Kong, the sixth largest coastal wetland in China)74 are important bird habitats and vital spawning grounds for many species of fish and invertebrates. These wetlands are seriously threatened by sea level rise and salt water intrusion, and their ability to adapt naturally by retreating inland is blocked by human constructions, such as concrete roads and dykes or coastal defences.

Figure 20 - Spoonbills feeding at Mai Po Marshes Photograph by Eric Fletcher

(3) Impacts on Infrastructure

“Worldwide losses from natural catastrophes increased in the second half of the twentieth century in a dramatic and disturbing way. This trend appears to have become even more firmly entrenched since the mid-1980s.”75

Extreme weather events damage infrastructure. Cities and infrastructure are built to accepted risk limits based on the expected return frequency of severe winds, heavy rainfall events, storm surges and so on. Above these thresholds, damage can accelerate in a non–linear way.76

As discussed above, there is no firm consensus as to whether climate change is influencing the occurrence of more frequent or more severe tropical cyclones, but it is clear that larger concentrations of assets and populations in hazard prone regions, like the Greater PRD, contribute substantially to higher financial losses from such events.77

72 Professor Chen Manchun, director of the Environment Department of China’s National Marine Data and Information Service, speaking in 2004, as reported by Zhang: p. 24ff.

73 Australian Greenhouse Office, Department of the Environment & Heritage, Australia, “Impacts & Adaptation – Biodiversity”, 2006. [Online]. http://www.greenhouse.gov.au/impacts/biodiversity.html

74 Fung: p. 112.

75 MunichRe, 1999.

76 Allen Consulting Group, Climate Change: Risk and Vulnerability (Sydney: Australian Greenhouse Office, Department of the Environment & Herit- age, 2005) 159 pp. [Online]. http://www.greenhouse.gov.au/impacts/publications/pubs/risk-vulnerability.pdf

77 Freeman, P. and Warner, K. “Vulnerability of infrastructure to climate variability: how does this affect infrastructure lending policies?” (Wash- ington D.C., World Bank, October 2001). 26 The Impacts of Climate Change in Hong Kong and the Pearl River Delta English

By some estimates, direct losses from extreme weather events could reach as high as US$100 billion annually during the next century.78 According to the World Bank, 24% of invested capital stock is public infrastructure.79 Even assuming that infrastructure is no more vulnerable to loss than other types of capital stock, infrastructure’s share of that global total could reach in excess of US$25 billion a year.80

As discussed in the previous section, the Greater PRD could be extremely vulnerable to large-scale flooding from heavy rainfall, typhoons and storm surges. Research on the effects of natural disasters published by the World Bank highlights that flooding can cause extensive damage to infrastructure and other productive capacity, as well as decimating agricultural yields.81

The table below summarises selected effects of weather events on infrastructure.

Type of event Surface effect Infrastructure impact

Hurricane, typhoon and cyclone • Strong winds • Damage to buildings, distribution • Flooding (through rainfall) and high-tension lines • Flooding (through storms) • Damage to bridges and buildings; landslides • Damage to bridges, roads and building

Drought • Dryness of earth • Shrinkage damages building founda- • Wind gusts tions & underground infrastructure • Desertification • Wind damage to roof tops

Flood • Soil erosion • Softening of building foundations • Water saturation and landslides • Buried buildings; damage to other • Sedimentation structures • Damage to functions of hydro-power dams and water management systems

Table adapted from Freeman and Warner82

Floods may damage building structures and cause soil erosion, which can lead to softening of building foundations. Resulting sedimentation can impact water management systems, damage buried pipes and semi-buried tanks and harm dam structures and pump equipment.83 Conversely, in dry periods, as soil moisture decreases, subsidence may affect underground pipes and cables.84 Windstorms bring additional loads to bear on buildings, affecting both structural and non-structural elements, but only minimally affecting foundations and underground elements. They can also damage distribution and high tension lines.85

78 MunichRe, 1999.

79 World Bank, World Bank Development Indicators (Washington D.C.: World Bank, 1999).

80 Freeman and Warner: p. 11.

81 Benson, C. and Clay, E.J., “Developing Countries and the Economic Impacts of Natural Disasters”, in Kreimer, A. et al (eds.), Managing Disas- ter Risk in Emerging Economies (Washington D.C.: World Bank, 2000).

82 Freeman and Warner: p. 15.

83 Freeman and Warner, p: 14.

84 Entek UK Limited et al, London’s Warming: Impacts of Climate Change on London (London: London Climate Change Partnership, 2002) 13 pp. [Online] http://www.ukcip.org.uk/resources/publications/documents/London_summary.pdf

85 Freeman and Warner: p. 14. The Impacts of Climate Change in 27 Hong Kong and the Pearl River Delta English

Hong Kong currently has infrastructure that is better than anywhere else in China. Planned investments in the rest of the Greater PRD region will dramatically expand the highway, rail and subway systems. There are substantial urban development projects under way in Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Dongguan and Foshan, among others, and Macao is seeing major investments in infrastructure and leisure facilities.86 The extent of potential damage to infrastructure and buildings in the Greater PRD due to climate-related events is therefore significant.

The sub-sections below illustrate some likely effects of climate change on selected types of public infrastructure in the Greater PRD:

(a) Coastal and River Defences

Flood control and management of large rivers, as well as construction and maintenance of coastal defences, are of vital importance to China’s continuing economic development. Large-scale defensive structures, such as dykes and seawalls, as well as flood storage reservoirs and pumping stations in some urban areas, are in place throughout the Greater PRD in an effort to protect low-lying areas.

Flood control on the Pearl River relies mainly on levees and reservoirs.87 In 2001, there were 34 large reservoirs with a total storage capacity of 312 billion m3, and 11,000 km of dykes or levees. Levees along the main stream and the delta area are designed to withstand a ten- to twenty-year flood.88 Only the most important dykes have been designed according to a fifty- to one hundred-year flood and tide standard. Most infrastructure was originally planned in the 1950s, and was designed in accordance with the climate related estimates at that time.

As discussed above, MSL rise of 30 cm is expected to have a significant impact on the height of storm surges in the future and on the return periods between major flooding incidents, which could overwhelm the existing flood control infrastructure. The aftermath of Hurricane Katrina in the United States in 2005 demonstrated the disastrous impact of failure of a levee structure protecting low-lying land. Climate change can only increase the pressure on the flood control infrastructure in the Greater PRD.

The 2003 study by the Guangdong Academy of Sciences warned that the present network of dykes and anti-flood measures would be inadequate in these circumstances. The study has been submitted to the provincial authorities as well as municipal governments of Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Zhuhai and Zhongshan for planning of additional measures, including the construction of new dykes at a higher tidemark level. In the opinion of Zhenguo Huang of the Academy, the enormous investment required for the construction of dykes and anti-flood works would be small in comparison with the huge losses caused by a disastrous flood.89

(b) Ground Transportation

A general increase in temperature could have negative effects on elements of transportation infrastructure, which would cause disruption and require increased spending on repair and maintenance.

86 Enright et al: p. 16.

87 Zhang, Hai-Lun and Wen, Kang, “Flood control and management for large rivers in China”, in Proceedings of Workshop on Strengthening Capacity in Participatory Planning and Management for Flood Mitigation and Preparedness in Large River Basins: Regional Cooperation in Flood Control and Management in Asia and the Pacific, Phase II, Bangkok, November 2001: pp. 41-67.

88 Zhang and Wen: p. 51.

89 Pun, Pamela, “42pc of Delta Faces Sea Threat: Study”, The Standard, 28th July 2003. [Online]. http://www.thestandard.com.hk/news_detail. asp?pp_cat=&art_id=3419&sid=&con_type=1&d_str=20030728&sear_year=2003 28 The Impacts of Climate Change in Hong Kong and the Pearl River Delta English

Enormous investment is planned to develop an extended network of highways throughout the Greater PRD, some of which will involve major bridge construction projects. For example, the Shenzhen Western Corridor, which will open in 2007, includes a 4 km bridge spanning Deep Bay.90 The most ambitious project currently under discussion is a bridge linking Hong Kong, Zhuhai and Macao, which will span the Pearl River for 30 km. The bridge is expected to take five years to complete and to require investment of US$4 billion.91

Any infrastructure of this type will be exposed to incremental weather pressures brought about by climate change. Flooding, storms and landslides resulting from heavy rain can cause serious damage to major works, such as bridges and road develop- ments. In low-lying communities, roads tend to be lower than the surrounding lands so that land can drain into them, and are consequently the first to flood.92

Studies in England have shown that roads could also be affected by higher temperatures in a number of ways, including rutting of the road surface, embankment subsidence, deterioration of concrete, problems with expansion joints, increase in dust levels and reduction in skid resistance.93 Very dry weather can also damage highways through foundation shrinkage.94 Further research is needed to determine whether the increase in average temperatures projected for the Greater PRD will have similar effects on the soils and construction materials used here.

Figure 21 – Flood-damaged road in Guangdong Province Source: Cable News Network

In cities, road transportation is often greatly disrupted by repairs to underground water mains, pipes or electric cables. In London, increased shrinkage and expansion of the local clay caused by rising temperatures is expected to damage under-road water mains, meaning more frequent repairs and consequently greater disruption to road traffic.95 Again, further research is needed to determine whether similar effects will be felt in the Greater PRD.

90 What’s New: Cross-Boundary Traffic”, Environment, Transport & Works Bureau, Government of Hong Kong, October 2006. [Online]. http:// www.etwb.gov.hk/whats_new/Cross_Boundary_Traffic/Cross_boundary_Traffic_1/index.aspx?langno=1&nodeID=1586

91 “Building of Mega-Bridge Set to Start at Year End”, People’s Daily Online, 2th January 2006. [Online]. http://english.peopledaily.com. cn/200601/12/eng20060112_234873.html

92 Titus, Jim, “Does sea level rise matter to transportation along the Atlantic coast?”, in The Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Transporta- tion: Workshop Summary and Proceedings (United States Department of Transportation, October 2002) pp. 1-16. [Online] http://climate.dot. gov/workshop1002/titus.pdf

93 London Climate Change Partnership, Climate Change and London’s Transport Systems (London: Greater London Authority, 2005) 30 pp. [Online] http://www.ukcip.org.uk/resources/publications/documents/109.pdf

94 Freeman and Warner: p. 14.

95 Greater London Authority: p. 18. The Impacts of Climate Change in 29 Hong Kong and the Pearl River Delta English

Rail links, such as the express rail train between Guangzhou and Hong Kong, are also an important element of the transportation network in the Greater PRD. Storms and flooding can disrupt rail transport and temporarily close stations, as well as causing damage to infrastructure. For example, during Typhoon Bilis in July 2006, flooding cut the main Guangzhou to Beijing railway line, stranding thousands of passengers.96 On an even larger scale, after Hurricane Katrina, rail yards in and around New Orleans were either destroyed or severely damaged.97 Higher temperatures and very dry weather can also damage railways through foundation shrinkage, buckled rails and distortion of soldered rails.98

Figure 22 - Storm damage to railway in China Source: www.china.org.cn

The underground train systems in Hong Kong, Guangzhou and Shenzhen, which are being rapidly built out at present, will also be vulnerable to flooding, as well as to possible effects on tunnel structures caused by changes in groundwater, such as greater hydraulic pressure on the tunnel walls.99 Heavy rain can also cause electrical problems for rail systems: for example, in September 2006, rail services in Hong Kong were disrupted by wiring problems after heavy rain.100

In addition to damaging transportation infrastructure itself, severe weather events could also disrupt the distribution of transportation fuels, which might prevent some rail and road vehicles from operating.

The economic success of the Greater PRD was built on international trade, and the shipping and logistics sectors continue to make an important contribution to economic growth. Seaports are a vital element of the transportation infrastructure of the region, playing a critical role in transporting manufactured goods abroad. The upper delta and western delta areas have serious

96 BBC News – Asia Pacific, “Chinese Storm Kills More Than 180”, 18th July 2006. [Online]. news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/asia-pacific/5185314.stm

97 D’Amico, Esther and Bryner, Michelle, “Transportation Moving On in the Gulf”, Chemical Week, 19th Oct 2005, Vol. 167, Iss. 34: pp. 19-22.

98 Freeman and Warner: p. 14.

99 Titus: p. 5.

100 Parwani, Audrey, “Torrential rain causes widespread flooding, Observatory record is broken, 600mm of rain is dumped on Sha Tin, and Jockey Club cancels night meeting,” South China Morning Post, 14th September 2006. 30 The Impacts of Climate Change in Hong Kong and the Pearl River Delta English

silting problems that limit the operations of their ports, and for many years Hong Kong possessed the only deep-water, modern container facilities in the region. Several container ports have recently been developed in Shenzhen.101

Sea level rise, and its effects on storm surge and flooding, is a serious potential threat to harbour and wharf installations. As described by Robert Mackenzie of the Dover Harbour Board in the United Kingdom: “Rise in sea level is probably our greatest future threat from an operational viewpoint. An increasing incidence of storm surge tides, especially if accompanied by strong winds and wave activity, also pose serious problems.”102

Sea level rise and associated increase in storm surge would increase the probability of inundation of wharfs and breakwaters, reducing the wharfs’ working platforms. Heightened wave action would also accelerate the scouring effect of the tide on hydraulic equipment, which could shorten its service life. Changes in sea level are likely to alter the balance of coast and beach erosion and sedimentation around harbours and their access channels.103 This could pose significant operating challenges for ports in the region, which already have a problem with sedimentation, and is likely to increase their operating costs for additional dredging. It is possible that other factors, such as higher water temperature and increased salinity, could also affect port infrastructure.

Port areas typically have a great deal of transportation infrastructure linking them to the inland areas, including road and rail systems. Any climate-related disruption to these transportation networks could cause problems such as unavailability of marine fuel or non-delivery of goods for shipment, which would also have negative impacts on the operations of the port.

In the longer term, the most fundamental variable for port operators will be the defensive infrastructure strategy to be pursued in the Greater PRD. In a scenario where the government decides to build an extensive dyke system to protect the region, the question will be whether to follow the coast as it is today, or to follow the Dutch approach of shortening the coast (i.e. building a large dyke across the mouth of a bay or estuary). In the latter case, some of the existing ports could then be inside the dyke. Either ships would have to pass through locks or new deepwater ports would be built outside the dyke, which would take business away from the incumbents.104

101 Rohlen, Thomas P., Hong Kong and the Pearl River Delta: “One Country, Two Systems” in the Emerging Metropolitan Context (Stanford: Stanford University, 2000) 35 pp. [Online] . http://iis-db.stanford.edu/pubs/11897/Rohlen2000.pdf

102 Wade, S. et al, Rising to the challenge. Impacts of Climate Change in the South East. Technical Report (Epsom: South East Climate Change Partnership, 1999) 94pp: (quoted on p. 29). [Online] http://www.ukcip.org.uk/resources/publications/documents/south_east_tech.pdf

103 Yang, Guishan and Shi, Yafeng, “Impacts of sea level rise on major projects and urban development in China’s coastal plains”, Journal of Chinese Geography, Vol 6, No 4, 1996: pp. 66-74.

104 Titus: p. 9. The Impacts of Climate Change in 31 Hong Kong and the Pearl River Delta English

Figure 23 - “Deltaworks” dyke system in Holland Source: Stichting Deltawerken Online

(d) Airports

There are five airports in the Greater PRD, including Hong Kong and Macao. Hong Kong has the leading airport in the Greater PRD, at Chek Lap Kok, with over 36 million passengers in 2005. The Hong Kong International Airport (“HKIA”) Master Plan 2020 schedules development of airport capacity to accommodate 87 million passengers and handle 9 million tonnes of cargo per year around 2020.105 The new Baiyun Airport in Guangzhou, one of the three air hubs of China, is the largest and most advanced airport in China,106 handling over 20 million passengers and nearly 650,000 tonnes of cargo in 2004.107

Coastal cities, like Hong Kong, tend to have airports built along tidal waters, sometimes on reclaimed land. Therefore, their runways are exposed to flooding.108 Although Chek Lap Kok airport is currently at 6 m above sea level, the sea level rise predicted for the region and associated storm surge effects could increase its vulnerability. Incremental damage could be caused if typhoons increase in intensity, including damage to parked aircraft, hangars or terminal buildings. As is the case for roads throughout the region, higher temperatures could also affect runways and airport roads, for example through deterioration of concrete, rutting or subsidence.

Airports in the Greater PRD may also be affected by damage to other transportation networks that affects delivery of aeroplane fuel or cargos, thus slowing aeroplane turnaround time, or otherwise impacting the operations of the facility.

Storms and flooding could seriously disrupt air transport and cause airports in the region to be closed for longer periods than is the case today. Interruptions to passenger transport, in particular, put enormous strain on airport facilities and create significant management problems for airport operators, as large numbers of passengers are stranded at the airport.

105 InvestHK, “Industry Today. Hong Kong’s Transportation and Logistics Industry Today”, June 2006. [Online]. http://www.investhk.gov.hk/ pages/1/313.aspx

106 Hong Kong Trade Development Council, “Market Profiles on Chinese Cities and Provinces. PRD Economic Profile”, February 2006. [Online]. http://www.tdctrade.com/mktprof/china/prd.htm

107 Guangdong Airport Management Corporation, “About GAMC”, 2006. [Online]. http://www.baiyunairport.com/english/about.jsp

108 Titus: p. 4. 32 The Impacts of Climate Change in Hong Kong and the Pearl River Delta English

(e) Water Supply

Water resources in the Greater PRD are already under pressure due to increases in demand caused by population growth and industrialisation. Development of water and sewerage systems is not always adequate to meet these demands in certain areas, while unregulated exploitation of groundwater exacerbates problems of water quality and land subsidence.

Fresh water supply

Climate change is likely to increase the stress on rivers already under pressure from salinity, over-allocation and declining water quality. Reduced rainfall would mean that less water is available for human consumption. Reduced water supply can also affect water quality in rivers, while drought conditions can increase erosion, leading to higher sediment loads entering rivers following rainfall events.109 It is likely that water treatment facilities throughout the Greater PRD would need extensive expansion and upgrading to cope with lower raw water quality.

A rising sea will cause a large amount of tidal water to travel upstream in the delta. According to the China Climate Change Country Study’s preliminary results in 1994 and investigations by the Chinese Academy of Sciences, the tidal boundary will move, bringing salt water further upstream: perhaps as far as 3 km further if there is a sea level rise of 40 cm to 60 cm in the Greater PRD region. Saltwater will intrude even to Guangzhou in a low-water period, affecting the residents’ drinking water supply.110

Wastewater and sewage

Rising sea levels and heavy rains put pressure on drainage systems. When the sea level rises relative to ground level, stormwater drainage pipes fill with seawater. The seawater may flow back up the pipes; or simply make it harder for rainwater to be dis- charged to the sea, resulting in both cases in flooding.111 Existing drainage systems in many Greater PRD cities are inadequate. Guangzhou, for example, regularly experiences tidal flooding caused by water intruding up through the drainage systems. This would clearly be worsened by sea level rise with resultant higher tides.112

In Hong Kong, the Drainage Services Department’s view as of November 2005 was that a “wait-and-see approach … at least for the time being” was appropriate with regard to design for sea level rise.113 Given that some low-lying areas of Hong Kong are already subject to flooding due to seawater backflow when high tides combine with heavy rain – which would be considerably worsened by a rise in sea level – it may become necessary in the near future to develop a more proactive policy.

Sea level rise and tidal saltwater intrusion upstream will also cause the PRD’s natural irrigation and drainage system to lose its effectiveness. It will become more difficult to drain wastewater from cities and towns, which will increase pollution of the river network and embankment area. The present twenty year flood frequency could decrease to a frequency of approximately five years, increasing the cost of irrigation and drainage by 15-20%.114

109 Australian Greenhouse Office, Department of the Environment & Heritage, Australia, “Impacts & Adaptation – Water Resources”, 2006. [Online]. http://www.greenhouse.gov.au/impacts/water.html

110 Yang: p. 269.

111 Drainage Services Department, Hong Kong, “Flood Prevention: How to Reduce Flood Damage”, June 2006. [Online]. http://www.dsd.gov. hk/flood_prevention/how_to_reduce_damage/sheungwan_low_area/index.htm

112 Chen Manchun director of the Environment Department of the National Marine and Data Service Centre. See Zhang: p. 24ff.

113 Drainage Services Department, Government of Hong Kong, Storm Water Drainage Manual. Planning, Design and Management (Hong Kong: updated November 2005) 108 pp. [Online]. http://www.dsd.gov.hk/FileManager/EN/publications_publicity/other_publications/technical_manu- als/Stormwater%20Manual.pdf

114 Yang: p. 270. The Impacts of Climate Change in 33 Hong Kong and the Pearl River Delta English

Conversely, with more extreme weather patterns, in the years with low rainfall, there may be less water available in the PRD river network to dilute sewage treatment work discharges. It is likely that improved treatment technology will be required to manage these physical challenges and to cope with the increased volume of sewage produced by growing cities in the PRD. If pressure on water resources from industry and the cities continues to grow, it may be necessary to develop water recycling systems to allow some wastewater to be re-used.

(f) Power Supply

Climate change could have a significant impact on the infrastructure associated with fuel distribution and electricity transmission, both by increasing demand and disrupting supply.

Demand

Demand for electric power in the Greater PRD has grown enormously in the last two decades. In Guangdong Province, the over- burdened grid system does not have the capacity to maintain full power all the time. In recent years, the manufacturing sector has suffered regular shortages in public power supply and most manufacturing plants have resorted to buying their own generators.115

Demand for energy is temperature-sensitive – increasingly so as greater per capita incomes in the Greater PRD increase the use of domestic airconditioning and as industry in the region adopts sophisticated manufacturing processes that require cooling and constant temperatures. Research carried out for Hong Kong’s Environmental Protection Department in 2004 into the impact of global warming on the energy sector concluded that an increase in the ambient temperature of 1ºC would increase electricity consumption by 9.02%, 3.13% and 2.64% in Hong Kong’s domestic, commercial and industrial sectors respectively.116 As Hong Kong’s industrial sector is extremely small, it can be estimated that this figure would be considerably higher elsewhere in the Greater PRD.

In many parts of the Greater PRD, including Hong Kong, Zhuhai and Shenzhen, flood water is regularly pumped out of the drainage systems after storms and very high tides. Pumping uses electric power, which is drawn from the public grid. Increased flooding could put more of a load on the system, and in turn leave it highly vulnerable to the effects of long-standing flood waters if pumping were to fail.

Supply

Electricity may be disrupted by damage to transmission and distribution infrastructure (power lines, pylons etc.), which can be damaged by storms or landslips following heavy rain. In addition, high temperatures degrade transmission capacity.117

Most public power in the Greater PRD is supplied by coal-fired power plants, while generators are fuelled by diesel fuel and fuel oil. Production of energy depends on the consistent delivery of these fuels. China’s coal and oil resources are mainly located in the interior and North of the country,118 so reliable transportation and storage infrastructure in the Greater PRD is vital to cater for the movement of these commodities.

115 Barron, Bill et al: p. 14.

116 Fung: p. 50 p. 2.

117 Allen Consulting Group: p. 139.

118 Loh, Christine, “Energy Supply and Fuels Supply in Guangdong. Impact on Air Quality in Hong Kong and Guangdong” (Hong Kong: Civic Exchange, 2006) 47 pp. 34 The Impacts of Climate Change in Hong Kong and the Pearl River Delta English

Guangdong’s coal supplies are largely imported through its ports. Any disruption to the operation or efficiency of ports in the PRD, as discussed above, could affect the supply of coal to regional power plants and thus interrupt power supply. Any fuel oil or diesel fuel that travels through the ports could be similarly affected. This will become an increasingly important factor in the future as emissions regulations enforce the use of cleaner fuels, which are likely to be imported from outside China. In addition, any storm or flooding events that cause roads to be impassable or transportation to be delayed could cause disruption to fuel supply and thus to power supply.

While coal and diesel/fuel oil are used to generate the bulk of Guangdong’s electricity supply (69% of generating capacity in 2003), around 20% of supply is derived through hydro power.119 Hydro-electric dams are also considered to be vulnerable to climate change events. On the one hand, reduction of water flow in rivers during dry years could reduce the amount of power that can be generated. Conversely, dams could be susceptible to extreme rainfall events if these exceed historical design standards. A dam breakage or situation where water overtops the dam could have catastrophic flooding effects further downstream.120

(4) Economic Impacts

The science of climate change is still under development, and the analysis of the costs and economic impact of projected climate events is also at an early stage. The Stern Review provides the best estimate to date of the economic costs of climate change worldwide, based on a wide range of evidence and using a number of techniques to assess costs and risks. The Review’s sober- ing conclusion is that “if we don’t act, the overall costs and risks of climate change will be equivalent to losing at least 5% of global GDP each year, now and forever”,121 and that “if a wider range of risks and impacts is taken into account, the estimates of damage could rise to 20% of GDP or more.”122

While it is impossible here to make detailed economic forecasts for the Greater PRD, this paper identifies some of the ways in which continued economic growth in the region, vital to the economy of China as a whole, could be threatened by climate change. In this context, it is vital to heed the Stern Review’s warning that the simple conclusion of the evidence is that “the benefits of strong, early action considerably outweigh the costs.”123 This statement is particularly applicable to the Greater PRD, given the region’s high vulnerability.

(a) Approach to Economic Analysis of Climate Change

In economic terms, climate change acts as an external “shock” to the economic systems, which can be examined in terms of:

• Hypothetical costs if individuals, companies and governments take no action to avoid or reduce the costs associated with that shock; or • Costs in the more likely situation where action is taken to avoid at least some part of these costs by mitigating the size of the shock itself or by adapting to the shock as efficiently as possible.124

119 This was the percentage in 2003: China Electric Power Yearbook 2004. Barron: p. 15.

120 Allen Consulting Group: p. 138.

121 Stern.

122 Stern.

123 Stern.

124 Marsden Jacob Associates, Economic Issues Relevant to Costing Climate Change Impacts (Sydney: Australian Greenhouse Office, Depart- ment of the Environment & Heritage, 2004) 61 pp. [Online]. http://www.greenhouse.gov.au/impacts/publications/pubs/costing.pdf The Impacts of Climate Change in 35 Hong Kong and the Pearl River Delta English

The economic costs of climate change mitigation are relatively well understood, as are the sectors and industries most likely to be affected by mitigation policies and measures. By contrast, the economic costs of climate change impacts are not well understood.125

As climate change study becomes more advanced, the science of environmental economics is attempting to address this issue. A number of frameworks for examining the impacts of climate change have been proposed and a great deal of work is under way to establish modelling techniques that can measure the impacts at different geographical levels and in economic, environmental and human terms. One of the greatest challenges involved in this analysis is to attempt to quantify the impacts of climate change on “non-economic” assets, such ecosystems or community well-being.

Even to attempt an analysis of economic factors alone is an enormous undertaking, given the degree of uncertainty about the specific impacts, the timing and likelihood of these impacts and their knock-on effects on the economic system. Any adaptation strategies that may be executed add another range of variables into the analysis.

Two levels of analysis can be used to assess the net cost of climate change impacts: partial equilibrium analysis, to examine the impacts of climate change on a single market or sector; and general equilibrium analysis, which is required to look at the flow-on effects of such a change through the economy.126 The following diagram illustrates an outline framework for costing the impacts of climate change:

Figure 24 - Adapted from Marsden Jacob Associates127

Computable General Equilibrium (“CGE”) models are commonly used for general equilibrium analysis, covering all sectors of the economy and the interactions between those sectors, and simulating market behaviour across the whole economy. CGE models are designed to examine changes (usually measured in terms of GDP) arising from an external economic “shock” like a climate

125 Marsden Jacob Associates: p. 3.

126 Marsden Jacob Associates: p. 7.

127 Marsden Jacob Associates: p. 42. 36 The Impacts of Climate Change in Hong Kong and the Pearl River Delta English

change effect.128 They may form part of an integrated assessment methodology, which seeks to combine physical and biological assessment with socio-economic assessments, using a range of techniques including scenario analysis, qualitative assessment and computer modelling.129

As far as we know, no detailed analysis and quantification of the economic effects of climate change in the Greater PRD has been published, although some estimates have been released in individual studies (some of which are quoted below). A great deal of further research in this area is required.

(b) Potential Threats

The PRD Economic Zone (“PRDEZ”), which is formed by the cities of Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Foshan, Zhuhai, Jiangmen, Zhong- shan, Dongguan, four districts and counties of Huizhou and four districts and counties of Zhaoqing,130 has been the most dynamic regional economy in China since the launch of China’s reform programme in 1979. In the last 15 years, the PRDEZ has become one of the world’s leading manufacturing centres for electrical and electronic goods, watches and clocks, toys, garments and textiles, plastic products and other goods. Hong Kong has for many years been a regional centre for financial and professional services, and is one of the main transportation and logistics hubs in North Asia. Macao is a popular tourist destination, currently growing in prominence with the granting of new casino licences there.

Figure 25 - PRD Economic Zone Source: Hong Kong Trade Development Council

According to the World Bank, recent estimates indicate that sea level rise of 1-5 m would reduce China’s GDP by 2.4-10.8%.131 It is not clear what this would imply for the Greater PRD region, which is an enormous contributor to the country’s GDP. Average growth in the PRDEZ over the last 25 years was over 16%, compared to a national figure of 9.5%, and GDP in the zone alone in

128 Marsden Jacob Associates: p. 25.

129 Marsden Jacob Associates: p2.9

130 Guangdong Statistical Yearbook, 2004. Enright et al: p. 20.

131 Buys, P. et al, “Sea level rise from global warming: potential impact on developing countries”, World Bank, forthcoming. Quoted in Brahmb- hatt, Milan et al, “Special Focus. Climate Change and East Asia: Challenges and Opportunities”, World Bank, March 2006, 9 pp. [Online]. http:// siteresources.worldbank.org/INTEAPHALFYEARLYUPDATE/Resources/550192-1143237132157/special-focus-March06.pdf The Impacts of Climate Change in 37 Hong Kong and the Pearl River Delta English

2004 was approximately RMB1,357.2 billion (US$163.9 billion)132, or 9.9% of China’s total GDP. (GDP of the Greater PRD region, including Hong Kong and Macao, was US$336.98 billion in 2004).133

Several studies suggest that climate change could have a significantly harmful impact on the PRD economy. For example, one simulation announced by the China Meteorological Administration in 2002 suggested that a historical high tide, combined with sea level rise of 65 cm, would lead to flooding of about 3,400 km2, causing an economic loss of RMB180.8 billion (about US$21.9 billion).134 For comparison, China’s Ministry of Civil Affairs reported that between 1 January and 26 July 2006, flood-related disasters, including Typhoon Bilis, caused Guangdong Province a direct economic loss of RMB19.9 billion (approximately US$2.5 billion).135

There is no consensus on projected figures in the published studies, and no generally accepted methodology for analysing conditions in the Greater PRD, but it is clear that climate change could threaten economic performance in the Greater PRD in many ways, some of which are outlined below:

Allocation of public funds to disaster management

Management of severe flooding events, caused by a combination of sea level rise and storm surge, and occurring more frequently in future decades, would require significant financial resources. It is likely that government will bear the greatest part of the responsibility for many aspects of preparation and response, such as the following:

• monitoring and public warning systems • emergency response and evacuation of the public • cleaning-up operations • repair and replacement of public infrastructure • economic assistance to communities and businesses

While some funding for these activities may be drawn from the central government’s budget, much of it is likely to come from local government funds. The necessary allocation to disaster management of capital that would otherwise have been invested in activities more directly related to economic activity, such as improved transportation infrastructure, technology or workforce training, may have an adverse effect on the level of economic growth in the region.

Allocation of public funds to adaptation

Greatly increased coastal and river defences will be required to protect the existing settlements of the Greater PRD from increased flooding due to sea level rise. One estimate suggested that engineering work needed to raise the design standard of 95 key defences in the delta to meet a 30 cm sea level rise would require 17.5 million m3 of soil and stone. Based on the price in 1998, the cost of this work – a fraction of the total infrastructure requirement - would be RMB 2,103 million (US$262.9 million).136 Enormous flood defences have been constructed in low-lying areas and tidal estuaries in other parts of the world at enormous cost. For example, the cost of the Thames barrier and associated works protecting London was approximately £1.3 billion

132 Figure is slightly overstated as it includes the whole of Huizhou and Zhaoqing, including parts that fall outside the defined area of the PRD economic zone. Enright et al: p. 21.

133 Enright et al: p. 24.

134 “Global Warming Accelerates China’s Sea Level Rise”, People’s Daily, 13th April 2002. [Online].http://english.people.com.cn/200204/13/ eng20020413_93966.shtml

135 International Federation of Red Cross: Appeal no. MDRCN001. [Online]. http://www.ifrc.org/docs/appeals/06/MDRCN001a.pdf

136 Huang: p. 261. 38 The Impacts of Climate Change in Hong Kong and the Pearl River Delta English

(around US$1.9 billion) in 2001 prices,137 and preliminary estimates of the cost of providing a 0.1% standard (1000-to-1 chance of flooding) to the year 2100 are approximately £4 billion (US$7.5 billion) within the next 40 years.138

Again, this defensive infrastructure may be funded from a variety of sources, but allocation of public funds to construction of sea-walls and dykes will reduce the capital available to invest more directly in the Greater PRD economy. Similarly, this construction may create a large number of jobs in the region in the short term, but these jobs are likely to be low-skilled and to make a negligible contribution to economic growth.

In the longer term, it is possible that the results of cost-benefit analyses of adaptation alternatives will show that increasing coastal defences is no longer a sustainable strategy and that it is necessary to withdraw from some areas and relocate assets or communities. Such an operation would incur considerable costs, including compensation for foregone assets. It would also entail significant non-economic, social costs.

Lower business revenues

It is likely that there will be heightened risk of frequent business interruption in the Greater PRD due to climate change.

As described above, transportation infrastructure is vulnerable to storm and flooding events, which could lead to major delays and bottlenecks, disrupting delivery of raw materials, components or finished goods. Much of the industry in the PRD is supply chain driven and prompt delivery is vital to business competitiveness.

Electricity supply problems already hamper business operations in the PRD. For example, in the first quarter of 2005, Guangzhou reported acute power shortages when power had to be restricted in specific areas on 716 occasions. Those periods cost the city RMB10 billion (nearly US$1.3 billion) in industrial output.139 More frequent interruptions to power supply caused by damage to transmission lines or delays to fuel delivery could slow production and lower output even more seriously.

Lower output and loss of orders by factories in the PRD could seriously threaten the region’s overall export earnings. In 2004, the PRDEZ exported goods worth US$182.43 billion, which was equal to 30.74% of all China’s exports.140 If buyers start to believe that companies in the PRD cannot reliably deliver, albeit due to external factors, they are likely to withdraw their custom and relocate their supply chain business outside the region. In addition to the manufacturing centre in the delta, this would also have a devastating impact on the ports and airports in the region and on the logistics and services industries in Hong Kong, whose companies have invested heavily in the PRD.

Increased taxation and business costs

It is likely that the costs of doing business will rise as a result of climate change. For example, shipping and transportation costs may increase as disruption and delays force companies to make short-term or ad hoc arrangements. It may be necessary to add new storage facilities for inventory or fuel to prepare for possible disruptions. The cost of utilities may also increase, especially water, as market pricing is employed to control inefficient usage. In addition, increased temperatures and heavy rainfall put greater strain on building materials and may cause increased building maintenance costs.

137 Environment Agency, “Thames Region. Who Paid for the Thames Barrier?”, 2006. [Online]. http://www.environment-agency.gov.uk/regions/ thames/323150/335688/341764/341783/?version=1&lang=

138 Entek UK Limited et al: p. 12.

139 Loh: p. 22.

140 Figure is slightly overstated as it includes the whole of Huizhou and Zhaoqing, including parts that fall outside the defined area of the PRD economic zone. Enright et al: p. 21. The Impacts of Climate Change in 39 Hong Kong and the Pearl River Delta English

It is also likely that the cost of insurance for certain physical assets in the Greater PRD will become a much greater burden, and, in some cases, may not be available at all. Business interruption insurance may also become extremely expensive or difficult to secure.

Greater pressures on the financial resources of the government at provincial or municipal level will, even if central government is willing to assist financially, almost certainly lead to increased taxation. This burden is likely to be heaviest on businesses and could include direct levies for flood control projects, as contemplated in the national Law of Flood Control (1997).141 A higher tax burden on Greater PRD businesses will increase their overall operating costs, with consequent negative effects on profits and on the level of retained earnings available for reinvestment or expansion of the businesses. Paradoxically, this may mean that total tax revenues collected by governments fall, even as the tax burden on individual companies or employees increases.

Decreased foreign direct investment

Loss of supply chain orders, lower turnover and higher business costs would generate less attractive returns to shareholders, which may decrease investor appetite for the region. Currently, foreign capital plays a major role in the Greater PRD’s industrial development, with utilised FDI into the PRDEZ in 2003 of US$13.05 billion – over 24% of total FDI into China.142 The Federation of Hong Kong Industries estimated in 2002 that there were 53,000 Hong Kong invested factories in the PRDEZ,143 and over 80,000 Hong Kong invested factories in Guangdong as a whole.144 Much of this investment will have flowed through from FDI into Hong Kong itself, which in 2003 was a further US$13.63 billion.145 By the following year, more than 3,600 overseas companies had regional offices in Hong Kong.146

It is likely that a sizeable reduction in FDI would significantly inhibit the region’s ability to maintain the pace of industrial development and consequent economic growth. The delta area, particularly, might suffer not only from a reduction in capital investment, but also from a reduction in technology transfer by foreign investors, which has been instrumental in the development of local industry.

Figure 26 - Guangzhou Source: Pearl River Water Research Institute

141 Law of Flood Control of the People’s Republic of China, Article 51. See also Zhang and Wen: p. 58.

142 Enright et al: p. 44.

143 Wong R.Y.C. et al, Made in PRD: The Changing Face of Hong Kong Manufacturers (Hong Kong: Federation of Hong Kong Industries, 2003) 92 pp. [Online]. http://www.industryhk.org/english/fp/fp_res/files/prde.pdf

144 Paragraph 14, Paper Ref: 2006ES/2, September 2006, prepared for the Chief Executive’s Economic Summit, Commerce, Industry and Technology Bureau, Government of Hong Kong.

145 Enright et al: p. 25.

146 Enright et al: p. 68. 40 The Impacts of Climate Change in Hong Kong and the Pearl River Delta English

As the most dynamic region in China, the Greater PRD is also the source of investment for other regions in China, as well as providing employment for large numbers of workers who are able to send money to their families elsewhere in the country. In addition, the region has become an important industrial market for capital goods and materials from other parts of China. Rapid urbanisation and burgeoning city populations have created huge demand, for example, for building materials and transportation equipment.147 The Greater PRD is also a large consumer market, where substantial per capita incomes and growing consumer spending create the potential for sale of goods from other parts of the country. Retail sales in the Greater PRD, including Hong Kong and Macao, were US$81.04 billion in 2004.148

The Greater PRD is an important gateway to China. Hong Kong has for many years acted as an entrepot, and the annual trade fairs in the region, especially in Guangzhou, generate enormous business for the country. The city hosted 616 trade fairs in 2004,149 including the Chinese Export Commodities Fair, or Canton Fair, which is China’s largest trade fair, generating approximately one- third of China’s total exports.150 It is reasonable to assume, therefore, that a serious economic slow-down in the Greater PRD would have far-reaching implications for the country as a whole.

(5) Impact by Industry Sector

“Climate change is not by any means just an issue about the environment. It is a business issue.”151

Climate change is a business issue that companies in the Greater PRD must begin to address in the very near future, if they are not to risk business failure or severely reduced profits, or to miss possible business opportunities created by new conditions. Management of climate change risk should be approached as part of the overall strategic planning process and integrated with other decision making processes.152 This may be challenging for company managers, who will have to tackle an entirely new area of policy, but it will become increasingly critical that climate change impacts are factored into business plans and investment decisions.

In many cases, physical assets or business operations in the Greater PRD are owned by holding companies or conglomerates that operate in multiple industry sectors. This increases the difficulty of analysing the range of relevant risks and appropriate actions, and also means that assessment of the possible effects on financial returns at holding company level is extremely challenging.

In the absence of proprietary company data and internal analysis on these issues, this paper cannot attempt to quantify the financial impacts of climate change on specific companies that operate or invest in the Greater PRD. However, it is evident that the extent to which individual businesses in the Greater PRD are affected by climate change will be influenced by the industry sectors in which they operate, and it is possible here to make a qualitative assessment of some of the relevant factors.

In addition to the discussion in the previous section of the likely impacts on business generally in the PRD, the sub-sections below summarise some of the particular issues that may affect selected industry sectors:

147 Enright et al: p. 7.

148 Enright et al: p. 26.

149 Hong Kong Trade Development Council.

150 CantonFair.net, “100th Cantonfair Introduction”. [Online]. http://www.cantonfair.net/cantonfair.htm

151 Rt Hon Margaret Beckett MP, “Climate Change Policy - What It Means for Investors”, speech at Institutional Investors Group on Climate Change 2003 Conference, London, 26th November 2003. [Online]. http://www.defra.gov.uk/corporate/ ministers/speeches/mb031126.htm

152 Metcalf, Gerry and Jenkinson, Kay, “A Changing Climate for Business” (Oxford: UK Climate Impact Programme (UKCIP), June 2005) 35pp. [Online]. http://www.ukcip.org.uk/resources/publications/documents/99.pdf The Impacts of Climate Change in 41 Hong Kong and the Pearl River Delta English

(a) Property

The property sector is a major contributor to the market capitalisation of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. Identified real estate companies, defined as such by the Hang Seng Property Index, make up approximately 11% of the weighting of the total Hang Seng Index (as of September 2006).153

Figure 27 - Victoria Harbour, Hong Kong Source: Hong Kong Planning and Infrastructure Exhibition Gallery

However, this number significantly understates the importance of the sector, as a large percentage of all listed companies in Hong Kong have a sizeable property arm. This is also true for some companies listed on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange. The contribution of the property sector is, therefore, critically important to the regional economy. Financial performance of companies in the sector could be affected in a number of ways: i) Climate change is likely to present new challenges for construction of buildings,154 increasing costs and causing delays, which might in turn cause the company to incur penalties for late completion: • New building and engineering standards (e.g. subsidence control, drainage) may increase costs. • More durable building materials may need to be used. • High winds may affect safe use of scaffolding and equipment. • Site work may become more difficult, leading to increased use of prefabrication. • Transport for site deliveries may be disrupted. • There may be longer delivery lines for materials or components, which will be vulnerable to extreme weather. • Insurance costs will be higher. ii) Operating costs for building maintenance and facilities management are likely to increase: • New building and engineering standards may increase maintenance costs. • High winds, rainfall and flooding may affect durability of building materials. • Higher temperatures may lead to ground contaminants becoming more active and attacking foundations. • Utilities costs may rise as lower water quality requires new processing techniques, demand increases and market pricing is enforced. • Utilities supply is vulnerable to extreme weather, giving rise to a need for back-up.

153 HSI Services Ltd, September 2006. [Online]. http://www.hsi.com.hk/

154 Metcalf and Jenkinson: p. 18 ff. 42 The Impacts of Climate Change in Hong Kong and the Pearl River Delta English

iii) Other operating costs, including insurance costs, property and corporate taxes and sales and marketing costs, may also be increased.

iv) Property values could be negatively affected by flooding or storm damage to existing assets or by concern about weather events.

(b) Supply Chain

As discussed above, there is a vast production base in the PRD, which is home to thousands of manufacturing facilities. The two banks of the delta present different industry profiles: the east bank focuses largely on electronics and technology products, with Hong Kong serving as a major electronics parts sourcing and distribution hub for Asia; the west bank specialises in the main on household appliance products. In the Greater PRD, an extensive supply chain has taken shape, where it is convenient to source all parts, components and accessories of a product, so that upstream and downstream industries are closely connected and orders can be completed quickly.155 This inter-dependence of upstream and downstream activities may be an important factor in making manufacturing companies in the Greater PRD vulnerable to climate change impacts:

i) Construction and maintenance of manufacturing facilities will be affected by many of the same factors as described above under property sector. An additional issue for industrial facilities could be liability for any leakage of hazardous substances as a result of damage to facilities.

ii) Additional operating issues for manufacturing facilities could include: • Higher temperatures requiring increased temperature controls • Higher utilities costs, especially for processes that require a great deal of water or power for cooling • Lower groundwater quality diminishing the quality of final products in water intensive industries (e.g. paper, pharma- ceuticals) • Interruptions to power supply that disrupt production • Transportation problems that disrupt delivery of raw materials or components, disrupting production • Transportation problems that disrupt delivery of final products, including high-value or perishable goods • Higher insurance costs, especially given that industrial infrastructure in China tends to be grossly under-insured currently • Higher taxes

Supply chain companies typically run on very tight margins, and they compete on low cost and speedy delivery. Many companies could have very little flexibility to respond to delays or higher costs. Moreover, late deliveries of components or finished goods could very likely result in lost orders. While this could force individual companies out of business, the wider implications for the Greater PRD as whole are also extremely grave. Once the efficiency of the supply chain in the region is called into question, international buyers could very rapidly choose to source goods and build a new supply chain infrastructure elsewhere in Asia, undermining the strong economic performance of the region.

155 Hong Kong Trade Development Council. The Impacts of Climate Change in 43 Hong Kong and the Pearl River Delta English

Figure 28 - Ports and airports in the Greater PRD region Source: MVA Hong Kong Ltd

The transportation, storage, post and telecommunications sector is the single largest service sector in the PRDEZ, with output of US$14.32 billion in 2003, equivalent to approximately 24% of the total service sector output in the PRDEZ. In Hong Kong in the same year, transport and storage recorded the fifth largest output at US$12.32 billion.156

Hong Kong is one of the key transportation and logistics hubs in Asia, and is the channel through which a major portion of the PRDEZ’s export cargo flows. HKIA is the largest international air cargo handler in the world with a throughput of 3.4 million tonnes in 2005, which is expected to triple by 2020. Hong Kong’s seaport handled 22.42 million Twenty Foot Equivalent Units (“TEU”s) (standard unit for containers) in 2005, and this volume is expected to increase to over 40 million TEUs by 2020.157 Ports in the PRDEZ are also being expanded to handle increased volumes of freight, already reaching a combined volume of 17 million TEUs in 2004. Shenzhen, which has the fourth largest container port in the world, is also a logistics centre, with over 2,000 logistics companies located there, the top 32 of which have assets exceeding RMB100 million.158

As described in detail above, climate change could negatively affect transportation infrastructure of all kinds in the Greater PRD. This would have a significant impact on the operations of both transportation and logistics companies: i) Adaptation of transportation facilities would require additional capital expenditure, including: • Additional dredging to manage silting at port facilities • Construction of flooding defences, especially on wharfs and coastal airport runways • Elevation of road and rail networks and adaptation of tunnels and other infrastructure

156 Enright et al: p. 67.

157 InvestHK, “Transportation and Logistics Hub. Hong Kong, Asia Pacific’s Transportation and Logistics Hub”, April 2006. [Online]. http://www. investhk.gov.hk/pages/1/306.aspx

158 Hong Kong Trade Development Council. 44 The Impacts of Climate Change in Hong Kong and the Pearl River Delta English

ii) Damage and disruption of transportation networks may have flow-on effects: • Companies may face penalties for delays. • Logistics companies compete on delivery time and could become uncompetitive. • Loss of business will hurt these companies’ margins. • Relocation of supply chain business outside the region will greatly damage the sector. • Passenger traffic may also be reduced.

iii) Higher operating costs including fuel, maintenance, tax and insurance that push up prices would also hurt competitiveness: • The logistics and transport sector is very price sensitive. • Several airports in the region, particularly Macao, are aiming at becoming hubs for new budget airline operations. This strategy could be undermined by increased costs and higher landing fees and taxes.

iv) Lower throughput of cargo and/or less passenger traffic would diminish core revenues for companies throughout this sector, such as: • Airport operators (parking and landing fees, airport handling charges, lease payments from terminal concession and retail outlets) • Port operators (mooring fees, handling charges, lease payments from associated properties) • Ground transportation operators (road, bridge and tunnel tolls, service station revenues, ticket fares) • Airlines (ticket fares, cargo transportation fees) • Shipping/logistics companies (freight forwarding fees, handling fees, warehousing charges, charter fees)

Climate change impacts on this sector would affect a wide range of companies, from airport and port operators, to airlines and shipping companies, to trucking and logistics companies. Both public and private sector operations could be significantly disrupted, with resulting loss of business. The sector has become increasingly dependent on the manufacturing activities in the PRD to power its growth, and there is likely to be a high degree of correlation between the economic performances of the two sectors.

(d) Financial Services

Hong Kong is one of the leading financial services centres in Asia, with Asia’s second largest stock market in terms of market capitalisation, reaching the benchmark HK$10 trillion (US$1.28 trillion) in May 2006.159 Hong Kong is the largest international capital raising centre for Chinese enterprises, with over US$125 billion raised through Hong Kong since 1993. There are 133 licensed banks and more than 200 fund management firms based in the city. Hong Kong has 175 authorised insurance companies, and the industry as a whole had gross premiums of US$16 billion in 2004.160

Shenzhen is a much smaller market, but is considered the most important financial centre in China after Shanghai. Shenzhen was the home of 19 foreign bank branches and 74 representative offices in 2004.161 As of December 2005, 544 companies were listed on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange, which had a market capitalisation of US$120 billion.162

Shareholders and managers in the financial services sector often consider that their business performance is unaffected by climate variation, but this sector employs large numbers of people, owns considerable physical assets and relies on international communication networks, all of which could be affected by response to climate change. Moreover, disruption in the financial services sector has far-reaching effects on all economy sectors.

159 “Roundup: HK Stock Market Cap Reaches Record High of 10 Trillion HK Dollars”, People’s Daily Online, 4th May 2006. [Online]. http://english.people.com.cn/200605/04/eng20060504_262912.html

160 InvestHK, “Asia’s Retail Capital”, April 2006. [Online]. http://www.investhk.gov.hk/pages/1/241.aspx

161 Almanac of China’s Finance & Banking, 2004. Enright: p. 53.

162 2006 Global New Markets Guide, Grant Thornton, 2006. [Online]. http://www.gti.org/documents/GNMG%202006%2014th%20July.pdf The Impacts of Climate Change in 45 Hong Kong and the Pearl River Delta English i) In addition to being affected by many of the same potential factors as other industry sectors, such as increased building costs, higher utility costs, higher insurance and higher taxes, the operating costs of financial services companies could be influenced in specific ways. • Telecommunications networks and computer systems, which are critical to operations, could be vulnerable to storms, flooding or power failure. Extensive back-up systems will be necessary. ii) Risk profile of financial services businesses would increase: • Investors and lenders to Greater PRD companies need to consider the potentially greater risk of default or low returns due to climate change. • Climate change events could lead to a large rise in insurance claims, which could damage the financial performance of insurance companies. (Insurance companies also hold large investment portfolios, whose performance could also be subject to climate change risk). iii) Business turnover could decrease if the Greater PRD is viewed as increasingly risky: • Portfolio investment in Greater PRD companies could fall. • Capital raising for Greater PRD companies could decrease.

It is not impossible that negative impacts on financial services companies could affect the whole market in Hong Kong or Shen- zhen. For example, a high volume of insurance claims, defaults or losses could force certain financial institutions to sell parts of their securities portfolios. If this were to happen on a large scale, it could depress the value of the financial markets, which could have significant knock-on effects on the economy of the region.

V. ADAPTATION

The IPCC concluded in its Third Assessment Report that climate change is a reality and that adaptation is a necessary strategy to complement emissions mitigation efforts. While mitigation can be viewed as reducing the likelihood of adverse conditions, adaptation can be viewed as reducing the severity of many impacts if adverse conditions prevail.163 An adaptation strategy aims to increase the resilience of natural, human and economic systems to possible changes and to reduce the level of damage that might otherwise occur. It is a framework for managing future climate risk, which will influence both public policy and private sector decision-making.

Vulnerability “The extent to which a natural system of human society is unable to cope with the negative impacts of climate change, variability and extremes”

Adaptation “Adjustment in natural or human systems in response to actual or expected climatic changes or their effects, which moderates harm or exploits beneficial opportunities”

Adapted from Pittock (ed.)164

(1) Adaptation Strategy Frameworks

To be effective, an adaptation strategy must consider climate risk as a normal part of decision-making, allowing governments,

163 Easterling, William et al, Coping with global climate change: The role of adaptation in the United States , (Arlington: Pew Centre on Global Climate Change, 2004) 40 pp. [Online]. http://www.pewclimate.org/docUploads/Adaptation%2Epdf

164 Pittock, Barrie (ed.), Climate Change: An Australian Guide to the Science and Potential Impacts (Sydney: Australian Greenhouse Office, 2003) 239 pp. [Online]. http://www.greenhouse.gov.au/science/guide/pubs/science-guide.pdf 46 The Impacts of Climate Change in Hong Kong and the Pearl River Delta English

businesses and individuals to reflect their risk preferences just as they would in other risk assessments and strategic plans.165 While there will be many ways to develop adaptation strategies that are appropriate for specific users, a framework for considering the issues is likely to include the following:166

• identification of vulnerability of region, economy, environment or population to climate change • identification of the likely impacts and ranking of these impacts in order of importance, probability and urgency • monitoring to assess whether anticipated climate changes are taking place, and if so, at what speed • calculation of the costs and benefits of a range of adaptation strategies: no response, relocation, physical infrastructure, change in business practice etc. • sensitivity analysis of adaptation strategies and outcomes • awareness-raising and communication with stakeholders about climate risk and adaptation • ongoing risk assessment and strategic review

To reach a point at which climate risk and adaptation strategies can be realistically assessed will require enormous activity across multiple fields. Better information on regional climate change and potential outcomes is a key requirement.

Climate change modelling techniques are still under development and global climate models, or general circulation models, show large differences in the timing, direction and magnitude of climate change at a regional scale. Such differences often make it difficult for policy makers to accept the results of vulnerability analyses and to address adaptation.167 A great deal of work remains to be done to develop generally accepted modelling techniques and assumptions.

Similarly, costing the impacts of climate change is complex. It is highly likely that costs to society will increase with global warming and that these costs will be spread across many regions and sectors. A significant amount of work to needs to be undertaken to develop comprehensive cross-sectoral estimates of the cost of climate change for a range of scenarios.168

Figure 29 - Framework for Climate Change Decision-Making Adapted from Willows et al.169

165 Allen Consulting Group: p. 8.

166 Australian Greenhouse Office, Department of the Environment & Heritage, Australia, “Impacts & Adaptation – Adaptation Planning”, 2006. [Online]. http://www.greenhouse.gov.au/impacts/adaptation.html

167 Erda, Lin et al (eds.), Climate Change Vulnerability and Adaptation in Asia and the Pacific, Proceedings of Workshop 15-19th January 1996 in Manila (Dordrecht: Kluwer Academic Publishers, 1996) [Online]. http://www.gcrio.org/CSP/WORKSHOP_01_1996.html

168 Australian Greenhouse Office, Department of the Environment & Heritage, Australia, “Impacts & Adaptation – Methods & Tools”, 2006. [Online]. http://www.greenhouse.gov.au/ impacts/methods.html

169 Willows, R. et al, Climate Adaptation Risk and Uncertainty: Draft Decision Framework, (London: Environment Agency / Department for Envi- ronment, Transport and the Regions, 2000). [Online]. http://www.scotland.gov.uk/cru/kd01/lightgreen/pascc-05.asp The Impacts of Climate Change in 47 Hong Kong and the Pearl River Delta English

(2) Responsibility for Adaptation Strategies in the Greater PRD

While climate risk analysis and adaptation strategy will need to be executed at all levels of both public and private sector activity in the Greater PRD, it is clear that strong government leadership is important. Much of the implementation of any adaptation strategy would inevitably be the responsibility of the national, provincial and local governments, given their key roles in public infrastructure, safety, health and land use planning and control.

Most of the public infrastructure in China, for example, is owned by the State or provincial government, which bears the responsibility for any damage to it. Governments also assume some risk for privately owned or managed infrastructure, as contracts governing most of these arrangements allocate financial responsibility for natural disasters to government parties.170 In addition, where insurance is not widely available or used, the government will tend to take on reconstruction or renewal activities after a natural disaster.

Key adaptation issues span virtually all portfolios and levels of government. Due to the complex bureaucracy in China, coordination of climate change activities among the various bodies with authority over the Greater PRD will be challenging.

For example, taking water management as one area of activity, it is apparent that interaction between the relevant national government departments and regional authorities is not straightforward. Despite the fact that the Ministry of Water Resources was mandated in 1998 to govern the management of water resources, water sector activities are fragmented, with other ministries handling water quality management, urban water supply and many other activities. Meanwhile, regional and municipal authorities represent their own interests, and there is often conflict between different regions and levels of government.171

Similarly, the leading agency for management of coastal regions in China is the Department of Sea Area Management, situated in the State Oceanic Administration (“SOA”). However, the SOA does not have the authority to coordinate all the sectors that may be affected by sea level rise: agriculture, industry, fisheries, tourism, urban planning, construction, ports etc. In addition, the SOA is subordinated to the Ministry of Land Resources, which might indicate weak political standing. Moreover, at provincial and local level there are again many agencies, with varying levels of autonomy and their own priorities.172

Coordination could be improved if the PRD were to set up a dedicated body responsible for climate change strategy, as has been done in many other regions and cities in the world. For example, the British government set up a task force, the UK Climate Impacts Programme (“UKCIP”),173 in 1997; and London has its own body, the London Climate Change Partnership. The Australian government has set up a National Climate Change Adaptation Programme, which aims to begin preparing vulnerable industries and communities by developing information and tools on climate change.174 Several countries in Asia also have inter-agency task forces, including the Inter-Agency Committee on Climate Change in the Philippines and the National Committee on Climate Change in Indonesia.175

170 Freeman and Warner: p. 16.

171 Zhang and Wen: p. 54 ff.

172 Lau, Maren, “Coastal zone management in the People’s Republic of China – a unique approach”, China Environment Series, Issue 6, 2003: pp. 120-123.

173 UK Climate Impacts Programme, “About UKCIP”. [Online]. http://www.ukcip.org.uk/about/

174 Australian Greenhouse Office, Department of the Environment & Heritage, Australia, “Impacts & Adaptation – National Climate Change Adap- tation Programme”, October 2006. [Online]. http://www.greenhouse.gov.au/impacts/index.html

175 Erda et al. 48 The Impacts of Climate Change in Hong Kong and the Pearl River Delta English

While development of public policy on adaptation to climate change impacts is vital for the Greater PRD, businesses in the region will also have to analyse how they will be individually affected and develop their own strategies. In many cases, the responsibility for taking action may be shared directly by businesses and government. In other circumstances, it may be shared indirectly as government levies funds from the private sector to pay for necessary adaptation measures in the region.

3. Selected Public Policy Areas for Adaptation

The development of public policy on adaptation will be enormously challenging. It will demand better information on physical and environmental changes and improved methodology for forecasting economic and social impacts. It will require a dedicated group of policy makers who will synthesise the views of a wide range of stakeholders to ensure that adaptation in one area does not have a negative impact upon another.

In the first place, in order to improve the understanding of the pace and extent of climate change effects in the Greater PRD, it is vital to put in place an accurate monitoring network that will accumulate sufficient data to provide a scientific foundation for strategic decisions. For example, with regard to sea level rise, it will be necessary to monitor tides, vertical crustal movements, surface subsidence, coastal erosion, river bed and bay deposits, ground softening and subsidence.176 In addition to observations from domestic tide stations and research stations, monitoring may include satellite or airborne remote sensing, which will require cooperation with national or international networks.

A sea level rise of 30 cm by 2030, and the possibility of far greater increases in the following decades, will require a comprehensive policy response. If no progress is made towards developing that policy in the immediate future, the Greater PRD could be left extremely vulnerable. It will be necessary in the short term to make strategic decisions, for example, on early warning systems, tidal defenses and relocation of built assets in response to sea level rise. At the same time, in planning for incremental development, priority should be given to assessing the risks to infrastructure with the longest asset life, such as bridges, tunnels and earthworks, which often have an effective life of 50-100 years.177

Policy should be developed along several of these lines simultaneously in order to protect the economy and communities of the Greater PRD, and also to limit future actions that may increase existing problems. Key policy areas will include the following:

Urban planning

Warmer, wetter and more extreme weather will put additional stress on buildings and infrastructure. It will be necessary to develop and enforce new standards of design, engineering and construction in coastal cities. Design of drainage needs to be revised to mitigate urban flooding and many major engineering projects may need to be reinforced or elevated where possible.

Water resource management

Availability and quality of water supplies is likely to be affected by climate change, while demand for water is increasing rapidly. Governments must put strict limits on groundwater exploitation, while improving water treatment and distribution infrastructure. Water supply systems could be made more robust, for example, by increasing their storage capacity or linking basins so water can be transferred between them. At the same time, it is vital to reduce inefficient usage of water by considering water supply needs when planning new development and by introducing market prices for water, especially in the industrial sector.178 Public awareness of the importance of water conservation must also be raised.179

176 Yang: p. 274.

177 South East Climate Change Partnership: p. 3.

178 Erda et al.

179 Wade et al: p. 81. The Impacts of Climate Change in 49 Hong Kong and the Pearl River Delta English

Flood management systems

Improved flood management systems will be needed to respond to more intense and more frequent storm and flooding events, including reliable forecasting of weather and tides, a flood warning apparatus in vulnerable areas and comprehensive emergency response. Contingency planning to deal with potential damage to existing infrastructures, such as water and gas supply pipes or electricity and telecommunication cables, will also be important.

Coastal and river defence

There is an extensive network of dykes, seawalls and embankments in the Greater PRD, much of which was constructed according to criteria set by the Guangdong government in 1955.180 Design standards for these structures need to be revised according to the latest forecasts of sea level rise and storm surge, and cost-benefit analyses carried out to prioritise upgrading work. A huge investment in engineering work would be required to upgrade and consolidate the defensive infrastructure throughout the Greater PRD.

Long-term land use planning

As discussed above, much of the urban development in the Greater PRD is situated on very low-lying land and is already subject to regular flooding, while significant areas of agricultural land as well as industrial and manufacturing facilities are located in the floodplains of the PRD. As recently demonstrated by Hurricane Katrina in New Orleans, there is a limit to the extent of protection that can be provided by even the most extensive physical flood defences. Decisions must be made about the cost of those defences compared with the value (in economic and human terms) of the land that they are protecting. Governments will at some point need to recognise the need to regulate any new development in floodplains and vulnerable areas. In addition to legislation prohibiting new construction in certain areas, governments may introduce incentive schemes to encourage investment in less exposed regions of the Greater PRD or in other parts of Guangdong.

The implementation of any large-scale policy decisions will require significant financial resources. One of the biggest challenges for policy makers will be to allocate responsibility for funding their climate change initiatives. The central government budget for investment in the water sector, including flood control, is only 2-3% of the total capital investment budget.181 At the provincial and municipal level, it seems that governments have been reluctant to invest in any areas that are not perceived to have a direct impact on GDP growth. It is likely that governments will seek to share the financial burden with the private sector in the Greater PRD via increased taxes or specific fees for flood protection.

180 Huang: p. 261.

181 Zhang and Wen: p. 57. 50 The Impacts of Climate Change in Hong Kong and the Pearl River Delta English

VI. CONCLUSION AND INITIAL RECOMMENDATIONS

The scientific evidence that the Earth’s climate is changing, and that these changes are not part of the Earth’s natural cycle but of man’s doing, is convincing.182 Nevertheless, “climate change is difficult for people to evaluate dispassionately because it entails deep political and industrial implications and because it arises from the core processes of our civilisation’s success.”183

This broad-brush report has identified some of the ways in which climate change may affect the landscape and economy of the Greater PRD. We recommend that more detailed research and modelling be undertaken so that government authorities, business and civil society can better understand the impacts of climate change on the region, including ecological impacts. Economic valu- ation techniques must also be developed to allow more accurate assessment of the net costs of these impacts.

It is clear even from this initial assessment that these impacts are broad, and that the region’s response must likewise be so. Policy makers in Hong Kong, Macao and Guangdong need to consider both mitigation and adaptation measures. Risk assessment techniques and cost-benefit analysis can be used to compare mitigation and adaptation strategies, and further scenario and sensitivity analysis carried out to assess the possible outcomes.

It is also clear that, as noted by the Stern Review, the costs of taking action now to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in order to avoid the worst effects of climate change will be far less than paying for the damage later. The latest warning from the Goddard Institute – that the melting of the world’s major ice caps could happen much more rapidly than previously thought – underscores the urgency of the problem. Policy makers, business leaders and individuals around the world must take resolute action to reduce emissions within the next 10 years, if catastrophic changes to the planet are to be avoided. More region-specific research must also be conducted on how best to achieve substantial emission reductions in the PRD. For example, while it is apparent that one of the cheapest and quickest ways to reduce greenhouse and other polluting emissions is to improve energy efficiency, this does not seem to be appreciated by businesses or governments in the region.

As pointed out by the Stern Review, “It is no longer possible to prevent the climate change that will take place over the next two to three decades, but it is still possible to protect our societies and economies from its impacts to some extent.”184 As a first step towards an adaptation strategy, there is an urgent need for the authorities to review the many infrastructure plans in the Greater PRD (including land reclamation, construction of container terminals, bridges, roads, tunnels and transport-related projects) and the extent to which they may be impacted by climate change. To date, the discussion has centred on how to expedite plans and not how to review them in light of climate impacts.185

Finally, it is clear that policy makers and businesses in the Greater PRD must start to incorporate climate change risk into all long- term policies, infrastructure projects, business plans and strategic investments. Around the world, decision makers are beginning to realise that they must be proactive rather than reactive in order to meet the challenge of climate change. Planning today is the only way for local businesses and communities to be prepared for climate change and its potential risks.

182 Connell, Richenda and Willows, R. (eds.), “Climate Adaptation: Risk, Uncertainty and Decision-Making” (Oxford: UKCIP, 2003) 162pp. [Online]. http://www.ukcip.org.uk/resources/publications/documents/4.pdf

183 Flannery, Tim, The Weather Makers: The History and Future Impact of Climate Change (London: Allen Lane, 2006) 368pp.

184 Stern Review on the Economics of Climate Change, “What is the Economics of Climate Change?”, 31 January 2006.

185 At the Hong Kong Chief Executive’s Economic Summit on 10th September 2006, there was specific focus on port and transport infrastructure development, but climate impact was not mentioned in any of the discussion papers. See http://www.info.gov.hk/info/econ_summit/eng/ papers.html. 中文氣候變化對香港及珠江三角洲的影響

ALEXANDRA TRACY KATE TRUMBULL 陸恭蕙 2006年11月 52 氣候變化對香港及珠江三角洲的影響

目錄中文

序言 52 作者及小組成員簡介 53 I. 報告摘要 54 II. 引言 56 III. 氣候變化預測 (1) 全球變化 58 (a) 氣溫上升 58 (b) 天氣模式改變 59 (c) 海平面上升 60 (d) 氣候變化與人類活動的相互影響 62 (2) 大珠三角地區的變化 63 (a) 氣溫上升 64 (b) 降雨量 65 (c) 風暴 66 (d) 相對的海平面上升 68 IV. 氣候變化的影響 (1) 對人體健康的影響 72 (2) 對生態的影響 72 (3) 對基建的影響 74 (a) 海岸和河岸堤壩 75 (b) 地面運輸 76 (c) 海港和河港 77 (d) 機場 79 (e) 供水 79 (f) 供電 80 (4) 對經濟的影響 81 (a) 氣候變化的經濟分析方法 81 (b) 潛在威脅 82 (5) 對各行業的影響 86 (a) 房地產 87 (b) 供應鏈 88 (c) 運輸／物流 89 (d) 金融服務 90 V. 調適工作 (1) 調適策略的框架 91 (2) 大珠三角制訂調適策略的權責問題 92 (3) 調適策略觸及的幾個公共政策範疇 93 VI. 結論與初步建議 95 氣候變化對香港及珠江三角洲的影響 53

序言中文思匯政策研究所意識到，氣候變化是一個涉及多個領域的課題，對香港以至整個珠江三角洲都會帶來重大影響，因此較早前把它納入我們的研究範圍。過去一年，我們有機會跟全球多位頂尖科學家討論氣候變化問題，從而加強了我們原有的信念：這個挑戰不但急切，而且規模史無前例，對我們所有人都會造成影響。我們身處的地方，是中國最富裕的區域。隨著物質日益富裕，我們對生態造成的衝擊 — 尤其是溫室氣體的排放 — 增加得愈來愈快。我們特別有責任致力找出有效的減排措施，以延緩這個過程；也急切需要找出方法，調適氣候變化已帶來的影響。

這份報告是我們首次把相關資料彙集成文，旨在概述氣候變化如何影響香港、澳門及珠三角。我們的主要建議是，必進行更多的區域性研究。與此同時，我們注意到新近發表的《斯特恩回顧：從經濟角度看氣候變化》。這項由英國政府委託斯特恩進行的關於全球暖化的研究，評估了氣候變化對全球經濟的影響。我們認同報告中提出採取行動處理氣候變化問題的迫切性。因此，這份報告同時是一份撥款建議書。思匯政策研究所正在籌募更多經費，以集中研究本文所提出的重點問題。

我們感謝下列幾位人士：報告的主要研究員兼作者Alexandra Tracy；對報告貢獻良多的Kate Trumbull；擔當支援角色的林冠熹。我們也必須向下列人士致謝：提供氣象和氣候意見的香港科技大學環境研究所的劉啟漢博士和馮志雄博士；提供最新科學證據的美國太空總署戈達德研究所的韓森博士（Dr. James Hansen）；給予專家意見的富蘭納瑞博士（Dr. Tim Flannery）。我們並多謝馮光至和吳家穎負責審閱和翻譯報告，以及Mirror Productions負責版面和設計。

行政總監陸恭蕙 2006年11月

思匯政策研究所是一所非牟利組織，旨在通過研究和分析，幫助政策的改善和決策的制訂。本報告表達的意見屬作者所有，並不代表思匯政策研究所立場。 54 氣候變化對香港及珠江三角洲的影響

作者及小組成員簡介中文 Alexandra Tracy是Hoi Ping Ventures主席，該組織是香港一家研究和顧問公司，業務範圍包括可持續發展和投資，以及私人財務管理。她曾在新加坡一家新開辦的軟件公司擔任財務總監，然後在新加坡開設自己的公司理財顧問業務；也曾在亞洲擔任投資銀行家多年，負責公司理財和項目融資的工作，為區內多個發展中國家的大型基礎建設工程提供建築、購置、融資等方面的意見。她擁有哈佛商學院工商管理碩士學位，以及耶魯大學和劍橋大學的碩士學位。

陸恭蕙是思匯政策研究所行政總監，自80年代起研究環境問題。她擔任現時職位前，在1992至1997年和1998至2000年間是立法會議員，離任後創立現時的智囊組織。陸恭蕙的本行是律師，並在1980至1992年間從事商品交易工作。她現時正協助G8+5 Legislators Climate Change Dialogue，為各個委員會主席協調研究工作。

Kate Trumbull在澳洲攻讀法律，曾短期從事商業法律工作，然後在西南威爾士政府擔任政策工作。她在2006年8月加入思匯當研究員，集中探討香港及大珠三角的環境政策；同時在香港大學攻讀環境管理碩士學位課程。

林冠熹在艾塞克斯大學（University of Essex）和劍橋大學攻讀社會學，回港前曾在一所私人未來學公司工作。他在2006年 6月加入思匯當實習生，並自9月起在思匯擔任兼職工作，主要研究大珠三角地區的環境政策；現時在一家公共事務與策略傳播顧問公司擔任研究員。氣候變化對香港及珠江三角洲的影響 55

I. 報告摘要中文地球大氣的溫室氣體濃度增加，正導致氣候出現變化。氣候變化將會令全球氣溫上升、海平面上升，和天氣模式改變(包括預計降雨量的減少和風暴的強度可能會增加) 。

(a) 海平面、氣溫、降雨量的變化

大珠三角地區(包括香港、澳門及珠江三角洲) 現時和預計會受到的影響，很大程度反映出上述的全球趨勢。區內的海平面和氣溫一直緩慢地穩步上升。香港的年平均氣溫預計在本世紀末將會上升攝氏3.5度。至於年平均降雨量方面，很可能只會輕微增加，但年度變化卻將會加劇，表示愈來愈多年份的降雨量會比慣常數值高或低很多。此外，雖然現時沒有足夠證據顯示區內熱帶風暴和颱風的次數會增多，但一旦最終出現了這種情況，潛在的破壞力將會很大，因此值得我們盡力防範。

海平面上升對珠三角的影響特別深，原因是區內的自然地理環境(三角洲南部的平均海拔是 -0.3米至0.4米) 和城市發展都令它極易受災。預計不出25年，廣東省沿岸海平面便會上升30釐米。這個數字並未能反映出危機的真正規模: 海平面上升 30釐米會大大增加風暴潮的威力(在海中推進的強風和風暴中心的低氣壓，會把海水捲起至高於正常海平面，形成風暴潮) 。結果，風暴潮蓋過堤壩的情況將會變得頻密。當風暴潮高度增加，而大型水災又經常出現的話，現有的海岸和河岸防禦設施便不足以保護大珠三角的低窪地區。

(b) 對生態和人體健康的影響

氣溫上升會增加心肺疾病的發病和死亡率，增加如瘧疾和登革熱等由蚊子傳播的疾病，亦會加快大氣內化學污染物的光化學作用，令本已嚴重的空氣污染情況惡化，最終危害區內居民的健康。

區內的生態環境早已因工業急速發展而遭到破壞，現在更會因氣候變化而遭受沉重打擊。脆弱的濕地生態系統(例如被列入世界遺產的米埔沼澤) 將會受到海水侵襲而備受影響；假如使用混凝土修堤保護，又會令米埔失去天然的調適能力。

有關政府部門和基建投資者似乎沒有充分考慮，甚至從未考慮氣候變化對區內基礎設施所構成的風險。

維持大珠三角地區客貨流通的道路和鐵路網，很可能會因為氣溫或海平面上升而受到破壞。平均氣溫上升，會導致馬路表面情況惡化，出現車轍或下陷；而鐵路系統則可能會出現地基收縮、路軌變形、焊接路軌扭曲等問題。風暴和泛濫會截斷地面鐵路系統和淹沒地下鐵路系統。

另一方面，海平面上升，以及隨之而來的風暴潮和泛濫，將會危及區內的海港和河港。除了碼頭和防波堤會被淹沒之外，海平面變化亦可能會改變港口一帶的沉積模式，令本已面對沉積問題的港口的運作成本進一步增加。此外，位於大珠三角內的五個機場 — 包括建在填海區的香港赤鱲角機場 — 都會受風暴和泛濫影響，服務嚴重受阻。

(d) 對公共設施的影響

大珠三角的淡水供應本已不足，氣候變化導致降雨量減少和海平面上升，只會令情況惡化。在降雨量減少的年份，河流淡水的容量和質量都會降低。海平面上升可能會把鹹水推往上游達三公里，甚至遠至廣州，因而影響食水供應。海平面上升也會令海水倒流到雨水排放管道，加重排水系統的負擔。一旦同時遇上暴雨，三角洲平原的泛濫問題將變得更為嚴重。

燃料和電力的供應，亦可能會受到氣候變化的嚴重影響。能源需求與氣溫關係密切: 當氣溫上升時，住宅、工業和商業用戶都會多用空氣調節，電力耗用量自然增加。與此同時，電力輸送容量卻因氣溫上升而大打折扣。若傳輸電力的電纜和電纜塔受到風暴或山泥傾瀉破壞，電力供應將進一步受阻。另一方面，用作生產區內大部分電力的煤炭、柴油、燃料油的供 56 氣候變化對香港及珠江三角洲的影響

應，可能會由於運輸系統遭到破壞而受影響。此外，供應區內逾20%電力的水力發電堤壩，也很容易受到氣候變化影響: 在旱年，水流量會減少；但若雨水過多，則可能會出現堤壩崩壞或存水滿溢的情況。中文

(e) 對經濟的影響

氣候變化對經濟影響的分析方法，依然處於早期發展階段。然而，我們仍可探討氣候變化對區內持續經濟增長構成的威脅，甚至透過乘數效應，評估氣候變化對整體中國經濟的影響。面對氣候變化問題，政府可能需要把公帑用於處理危機上，或用於興建如防波堤及堤壩等基礎防禦設施上。這樣一來，地方或市政府可能因為出現財政壓力而需要加稅，包括徵收防洪工程的直接稅項。此外，當原材料或製成品的運送，又或電力供應因水災和風暴而受阻，商業機構的收入有可能會減少。假如水路和陸路運輸受阻或延誤，公司因而需要作出短期或臨時安排，則運輸費用亦可能會增加。

(f) 對個別行業的影響

個別行業將會面對氣候變化帶來的不同影響。房地產、供應鏈、運輸物流及金融服務等行業，都可能因高溫、泛濫、風暴等因素而導致服務受阻。無可否認，氣候變化是一個與商業息息相關的課題；大珠三角的企業家假如要避免利潤減少，甚至倒閉的危機，他們就必須立刻正視這個問題。對於企業家來說，妥善管理氣候變化的風險，並在訂立商業計劃及作出投資決策時適當地考慮氣候變化的影響，將會變得日益重要。

(g) 調適工作

古語有云: 「預防勝於治療」。先賢的智慧同樣適用於氣候變化上。各方共同努力減少排放溫室氣體，是延緩未來災害的最佳方法。然而，由於現時溫室氣體的濃度十分高，地球的天然系統將需要一段頗長時間才可以把它吸收。換言之，我們將不能避免地需要面對氣候變化的部分壞影響。

因此，我們必須制訂一套調適策略，增強自然、人類和經濟系統的韌度和復原能力，以面對氣候變化將會帶來的影響，把破壞減至最低。大珠三角極需制訂這樣的一套調適策略，保障區內經濟和社區，當中的主要政策範疇應該包括城市規劃、水源監管、水災管理、海岸河岸防禦，以及長遠的土地規劃。

(h) 觀察結果與初步建議

世界各地的決策者正開始體會到，他們必須採取主動積極的態度，而非處於被動的位置，方能在氣候變化問題上取得突破。

大珠三角的決策者需要面對的一大考驗是，如何在處理氣候變化問題上有效地分配權責及資源。目前，省、市級政府似乎都不大願意投資在一些不能直接幫助經濟增長的項目。

最後，我們急需就氣候變化對大珠三角的影響，進行更多更深層的研究和建立相關的運算模型，從而加深政府、商界人士，以至一般市民對氣候變化問題和處理方法的認識。氣候變化對香港及珠江三角洲的影響 57

II. 引言中文「我們預計在二十一世紀，氣候變化的速度和規模，將會是人類經驗中史無前例的，為地球上所有生物在調適和紓緩氣候變化影響的工作上，帶來極艱巨的挑戰。」

眾所周知，中國的溫室氣體排放快速增加，對加劇全球暖化的責任亦越來越大。目前美國是溫室氣體排放最多的國家，但工業發展蓬勃的中國經已進佔第二位，而且正急速追上美國。位于廣東省的珠江三角洲地區是全球最主要的製造業中心之一，並且成為了中國溫室氣體排放的主要源頭。

圖1 大氣中二氧化碳濃度資料來源: UNEP/GRID-Arendal Maps and Graphics Library

中國多個地區已感受得到氣候變化所帶來的實質影響，例如旱災、水災，和海平面明顯上升等。珠江三角洲連同香港和澳門地區(合稱大珠三角)分別在兩方面面臨嚴峻威脅: 首先，這個地區特別容易受氣候變化影響，尤其是海平面的上升；其次，它是中國最富裕的地區之一，因此氣候變化可以造成重大的損失。

由於各界一般預計氣候變化的發生將會跨越數十年或數百年，因此決策者似乎容易受到一個稱為「正常情況日益惡化」 (creeping normalcy)的現象所蒙蔽 — 隨著代表「正常」的標準慢慢改變，他們因而未能充分地意識到逐步惡化的情況。反之，其他問題則會顯得更為急切，工業發展和快速經濟增長很多時候在決策過程中都會獲優先考慮。本報告的主旨，是證明氣候變化並非遙不可及的事，而它對珠江三角洲的經濟影響將會是十分重大的。

Dupont, Alan與 Pearman, Graeme: “Heating up the Planet – Climate Change and Security”，Lowy Institute Paper 12，2006年 6月，頁79。

請瀏覽http://maps.grida.no/go/graphic/global_atmospheric_concentration

Diamond, Jared: “Why do some societies make disastrous decisions?”，Lewis Thomas Prize Lecture, 2003年3月27日於美國紐約。 58 氣候變化對香港及珠江三角洲的影響

氣候變化所引致的任何問題或滋擾，都有可能損害商業運作。珠江三角洲在過去二十多年來一直是中國最具活力的經濟區域，吸引不少外商直接投資，同時對國內生產總值貢獻良多。因此，氣候變化對珠江三角洲的影響，可能會對全國經濟帶中文來嚴重的連鎖反應。

本報告的開首部分將會概覽全球氣候變化的潛在影響的科學討論，特別會集中討論有關氣候變化改變大珠三角的預測。

其後，本報告將根據環境轉變的預測，提出了氣候變化可能會對區內基礎設施和建築物造成的幾項實質影響，以至對大珠三角地區潛在的經濟影響。我們需要建立大量的電腦模型，量化氣候變化的經濟影響，但至今學術界仍未確立公認的研究方法。這項工作雖然不屬於本報告的研究範圍，但我們仍會概述氣候變化可會帶來的財政影響。此外，本報告將會同時探討氣候變化對區內個別主要行業的影響。

在結論部分，本報告將會討論一些政府和商界需要考慮採取的措施，以適應未來的情況。調適氣候變化的策略可以跟延緩策略(即透過減少排放溫室氣體，控制氣候變化的影響)互補不足，對商界和政府都極為重要。

根據政府間氣候變化專業委員會(Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change or IPCC)的定義，一個系統的「調適能力」，包括適應氣候變化、調和潛在破壞、善用適當機會和有效處理後果等能力。考慮到大珠三角現時極容易受氣候變化影響，若他們無法強化本身的調適能力，將會令當地受到很大威脅。在未來十年內，大珠三角將會需要更換或維修多項大型設施，亦會就長遠資產項目作投資決定，這些資產將要面對的氣候變化威脅將會大大增加。為了保障區內的經濟和社會狀況，決策者必須及早在決策過程中把氣候變化納入考慮因素之一。

圖2 在太空看到的珠江三角洲資料來源: 美國太空總署戈達德太空飛行中心

我們雖然認同緩解氣候變化措施的重要性，但本報告的主旨卻並非探討區內的緩解策略。

5 White, KS等人: 《氣候變化2001: 影響、調適性和脆弱性》綜合報告，政府間氣候變化專業委員會第二工作組報告，2001年。氣候變化對香港及珠江三角洲的影響 59

III. 氣候變化預測中文 (1) 全球變化

現時已有確鑿證據顯示，人類活動正在迅速改變全球氣候。在過去數年，量度氣候變化的技術得到改善，而科學家亦就南、北兩極冰川融解的速度進行觀察。以上兩者創造了條件，讓一些科學家作出預言，認為氣候變化的影響將較我們以前估計的來得更快，但究竟有多快卻依然難以作準。

政府間氣候變化專業委員會在1986年由世界氣象組織和聯合國創立，是國際社會評估氣候變化影響的一個重要組織。這個機構的主要功能，是在氣候變化、其潛在影響、可行的應對策略等方面，向各國政府和國際社會提供權威性的科學評估。

政府間氣候變化專業委員會在2001年發表《第三次評估報告》，就氣候變化對全球不同地區可能造成的影響，提供了全面檢討。在《第四次評估報告》於2007年發表之前，因此在目前，《第三次評估報告》將會被視為權威性的資料來源。在下文的討論中，我們將會陳述《第三次評估報告》的研究成果，但也會強調愈來愈多科學證據顯示，委員會的估計，尤其在水平面上升速度方面，是過於保守了。

(a) 氣溫上升

地球大氣內的溫室氣體(主要包括水蒸氣、二氧化碳、甲烷和氧化亞氮)吸收了紅外輻射(熱力)，令後者無法離開地球表面和大氣，升上太空。熱力被困在大氣低層，導致地球逐漸變暖。本來這是一個自然現象，為地球提供了繼續孕育生命所需的條件，否則，地球平均氣溫應該會是攝氏-18度左右。然而，人類活動改變了地球大氣的天然化學成分，令溫室效應加劇，導致地球暖化的幅度高於一般水平。

在過去兩個世紀，大氣內的溫室氣體濃度增加了，當中最大原因是化石燃料的燃燒、農業生産，以及因清除地球植被而失去了二氧化碳的天然吸收槽。預計到2030年，二氧化碳濃度將會比工業革命前的水平增加60%。

圖3 氣溫異常的情況正在增加資料來源: 美國太空總署戈達德太空研究所

有消息指，《第四次評估報告》將會提供最新資料，再次確認《第三次評估報告》的內容。

香港天文臺: 〈什麼是「溫室效應」？〉，http://www.hko.gov.hk/wxinfo/climat/greenhs/c_grnhse.htm

Dupont與Pearman: 前引書，2006年，頁10。 60 氣候變化對香港及珠江三角洲的影響

在二十世紀，全球平均表面溫度上升了大約攝氏0.6度。美國太空總署戈達德研究所的韓森博士認為，當中攝氏0.5度的中文溫度上升發生於1950年之後；在同一時期，人為的溫室氣體增加了70%。10 政府間氣候變化專業委員會預測，在1990至 2100年間，全球平均表面溫度將會上升大約攝氏3度(視乎不同的排放情況，上升幅度將介乎攝氏1.4至5.8度之間)。11 這個暖化趨勢，在兩極將會比在赤道更為明顯。即使溫室氣體濃度穩定下來，全球氣溫依然會在未來數十年繼續上升。12

如下文所述，這暖化情況預計會對生態系統、海平面、天氣模式帶來深遠影響。全球暖化其中一個令人非常憂慮之處，是它對全球冰儲量的影響之: 這影響不單出現在南極、北極及格陵蘭，還包括遠離海洋的冰川。它們的融水對植物、動物、人類社群都生死攸關。例如，中國科學家在2004年發表的一個為期24年的研究報告便指出，自1960年代起，中國冰川的面積縮小了大約5.5%。13 若現時的暖化趨勢持續，估計到2050年，有多達64%的冰川物質將會消失。14 短期內，冰川大量融解自然會令供水量增加，但最終都會乾涸。可是，居住在西部地區的中國人口長期倚賴冰川在夏天融解，提供穩定的水源。長遠而言，冰川的消失將會為他們帶來毀滅性的影響。15

圖4 冰山崩解資料來源: 美國太空總署戈達德太空研究所

(b) 天氣模式改變

全球暖化可能會導致天氣模式改變，對世界上部分地區造成嚴重的影響。在全球平均降雨量或會增加之同時，一些地區降雨量的按年變化幅度也可能會變得很大，引致嚴重的旱災和水災。氣溫上升會增加部分地區發生旱災的風險: 水的蒸發率增加了，卻缺乏降雨量增加作補充，令一些江河出現乾涸。然而，我們難以預測這種情況的出現，因為在其他地區，蒸發率會因降塵污染和雲量增加而驟跌。

近年，中國北部和西部的部分地區發生嚴重旱災。未來旱災的災情將會因全球持續暖化而愈加嚴重。

Houghton, J.T. 等編: 《氣候變化2001: 科學基礎》，政府間氣候變化專業委員會，2001年。

10 韓森: 〈拆除全球暖化定時炸彈〉，《科學人》雜誌，2004年4月。

11 Houghton等: 前引書，2001年，第9章。

12 同上書。

13 施雅風: 《簡明中國冰川目錄》，上海，上海科學普及出版社，2005年。

14 引述中科院青藏高原研究所所長姚檀棟答問，摘自”Glacier study reveals chilling prediction”，中國日報，2004年9月23日。

15 斯特恩: 《斯特恩回顧: 從經濟角度看氣候變化》，2006年11月，頁63。http://www.hm-treasury.gov.uk/independent_reviews/stern_ review_economics_climate_change/stern_review_report.cfm 氣候變化對香港及珠江三角洲的影響 61

《第三次評估報告》並指出，地球表面溫度上升，可能會導致異常氣象事件增加和增強，例如由厄爾尼諾這種極端現象引發的風暴。16 有分析資料指，自1950年代起，與天氣有關的事故(例如水災和風暴)已開始增多和增強。保險業界近期發表的一份報告估計，在下個世紀，因氣候變化造成的損失將會高於每年1,000億美元。17 中文

大氣溫度上升，將會在兩種情況下引致海平面上升: 其一，是把熱量直接傳到海洋，令海水膨脹；其二，是導致高山冰川的陸冰和主要冰床融解，令淡水流入海洋。18 政府間氣候變化專業委員會估計，海平面在二十世紀一共上升了10釐米至 25釐米。19 以中國為例，有研究顯示在1965至1995年間，中國沿岸海平面每年平均上升了2.3毫米，而大致在同一期間，中國沿岸的海水溫度也有顯著上升。20

政府間氣候變化專業委員會的《第三次評估報告》預測，全球平均海平面至2100年將會上升9釐米至88釐米(視乎排放情況和所採用的氣候模型而定)，中心值是48釐米，即相當於二十世紀觀測值的3.3倍。但由於全球海洋系統需要十分長的時間對氣候變化作出反應，因此即使溫室氣體排放大幅減少，預計海平面依然會在2100年或較後多個世紀繼續上升。

上述關於海平面上升的推算，是基於降雪量、蒸發量及融雪量變化所帶來的漸變影響。可是，部分科學家卻認為，政府間氣候變化專業委員會的數字，大大低估了海平面上升的危機。

韓森博士認為，預測海平面的上升速度，關鍵在於冰床對海洋暖化作出反應的速度。他指出，海平面上升容易把海洋冰架浮起，令它們脫離陸冰，因此加快了冰床解體的速度。冰架斷裂後，陸冰將會加速流向海洋。上述過程更會因污染物和融冰水令冰床變黑，導致冰床吸收更多陽光而進一步加快。21 換言之，海平面上升速度在開始時只是一般，但在冰架斷裂和上述強化效果出現之後，海平面將會發生極速變化。

圖5 格陵蘭冰原南端資料來源: 美國太空總署MODIS Land Rapid Response Team

16 Houghton等: 前引書，2001年，第9章。

17 慕尼克再保險公司: “Topics 2000. Natural catastrophes: the current position”，1999年。

18 Dupont與Pearman: 前引書，2006年，頁7。

19 Houghton等: 前引書，2001年，第11章。

20 Han等人: “Potential impacts of sea level rise on China’s coastal environment and cities: A national assessment”，Journal of Coastal Research，Special Issue 14，1995年，頁79至95。

21 韓森: 前引文，2004年，頁74。 62 氣候變化對香港及珠江三角洲的影響

一些科學家根據北極冰帽的觀測結果指出，我們已經穿越了冰帽融解的引爆點，因此往後的冰藏流失只會不斷加速。到 2004年為止，冰帽的面積減少了20%，而厚度也同時正在減小。科學家因此提出警告，指北極冰帽可能在2100年夏季或以中文前完全融化。在2005年夏季，北極冰帽的融解速度急劇增加，其面積縮小了30萬平方公里。以兩枚靜止衛星在2006年得到的格陵蘭冰帽資料作估計，格陵蘭冰藏正以每年235立方公里的速度融解。依據幾個世紀之前有關高溫把格陵蘭冰帽大範圍融解的歷史氣候資料，一些科學家推斷假如格陵蘭冰床現在完全崩裂，全球海平面有可能會上升6米。22

圖6 格陵蘭冰原融解面積的增加資料來源: Konrad Steffen and Russell Huff, CIRES, University of Colorado at Boulder

本文的研究範圍，並不包括評估海平面上升的速度和幅度。雖然戈達德研究所及其他機構都進行了不少研究工作，但依然有不少專家傾向認同政府間氣候變化專業委員會的保守預測。由於本報告的目的，是要顯示即使極小規模的氣候變化，都會對大珠三角造成極大衝擊，我們因此採用了委員會的預測數字，作為基準方案的設定。可是我們必須指出，實際的氣候變化速度可能會快得多。

22 美國太空總署: “Greenland ice sheet flows faster during summer melting”，NASA News Archive，2002年6月6日: http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Newsroom/NasaNews/2002/200206069411.html。氣候變化對香港及珠江三角洲的影響 63

所有沿海地區某程度上都會受到海平面上升的影響。23 即使是政府間氣候變化專業委員會所預測的輕微海平面上升，都會對沿岸社區構成威脅，因為潮漲的歷史高位或春季潮的水位都會被超越，而沿岸社區亦可能會遭受更強的風暴潮所吹襲。中文

圖7 風暴潮資料來源: 美國太空總署地球觀測站24

風暴潮跟低氣壓氣象系統(例如颱風)有關，是由於在海中推進的強風和風暴中心的低氣壓把海水捲高於正常海平面而形成的。25 風暴潮可能會對沿岸地區確造成嚴重損毀，在漲潮時發生的風暴潮尤甚。若海平面上升50釐米(這幅度與政府間氣候變化專業委員會《第三次評估報告》預測的中心值接近)，電腦模型推算全球每年將會有大約9,200萬人受水災影響。26

(d) 氣候變化與人類活動的相互影響

人類活動和城市發展加劇了氣候變化的自然後果。舉例說，地下水位和天然水道的轉變，可能會加速鹽化和增加洪水量。此外，森林濫伐和土壤退化亦會加劇由乾旱引發的沙塵暴和土壤侵蝕的現象。

海平面上升所造成的影響，可能會由於沿岸地層下陷而惡化。中國沿岸城市快速發展，引致地下水嚴重透支，加速了多個地區地層下陷的情況。27 由地殼構造和人為因素所引致的地層下陷，已令中國的三角洲海岸面臨嚴重的海平面上升問題。28

在包括人口壓力日益增加、生存環境遭受破壞、污染問題日趨嚴重等多個因素的累積影響下，國內不少地區的當地環境正面對不少壓力。對於本已開採過度的天然資源，氣候變化將會帶來一連串額外的、損害性的影響，或導致嚴重的生態和社會經濟惡果。

23 De la Vega-Leinert, AC等編著，2000a: Proceedings of the SURVAS Expert Workshop on European Vulnerability and Adaptation to Accelerated Sea-Level Rise，德國漢堡，2000年6月19至21日，Flood Hazard Research Centre，Middlesex University，英國Enfield。

24 http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Library/Hurricanes/Images/storm_surge.gif

25 University of Illinois Department of Atmospheric Sciences: “Storm surge: a concern to coastal residents” (n.d.)。請瀏覽: http:// ww2010.atmos.uiuc.edu/(Gh)/guides/mtr/hurr/damg/surg.rxml。

26 Baarse, G: Development of an Operational Tool for Global Vulnerability Assessment (GVA) – Update of the Number of People at Risk Due to Sea Level Rise and Increased Flooding Probability，CZM Centre Publication No. 3，Ministry of Transport, Public Works and Water Management，荷蘭海牙，1995年。

27 國家海洋局: 《中國海平面公報》，2004年2月。

28 Watson, Robert、Zinyowera, Marufu、Moss, Richard: 《氣候變化區域影響: 脆弱性評估》，決策者摘要，政府間氣候變化專業委員會，1997年。請瀏覽: http://www.grida.no/climate/ipcc/spmpdf/region-c.pdf 64 氣候變化對香港及珠江三角洲的影響

(2) 大珠三角地區的變化中文要準確預測氣候變化所帶來的影響，在子系統層面將會更加困難，原因是有更多因素需要考慮。29 氣候變化對大珠三角的影響，各項估值都存在著很多不明的因素，容易成為爭論的焦點。然而，已發表的有關大珠三角的氣候預測，大致與政府間氣候變化專業委員會的分析相若。

大珠三角包括香港、澳門，以及廣東省中南部的珠江三角洲部分，是一個由珠江水系中，西江、北江和東江的下游部分所形成的沖積平原。這裏的特點是縱橫交錯的河流網和頗低的地勢。30 珠江三角洲的地平面與平均海平面相近，北部和中部地區處於平均海平面0.4米至2.4米之上，而三角洲南部地勢則略低，介乎海拔0.4米至-0.3米之間。31

珠江三角洲是中國第三大三角洲，根據2000年人口普查統計，人口超過4,000萬。32 大珠三角是一個大都市區域，香港和廣州是最主要的兩個城市，區內逾半人口都是城市居民。自1979年起，香港和廣州兩地之間的地區，以及澳門一帶急速發展，不少耕地都轉作工業用途。

圖8及圖9 1979年及2004年香港和深圳的衛星圖片

29 Dupont與Pearman: 前引書，2006年，頁16。

30 Yang, H: “Potential effects of sea-level rise in the Pearl River Delta area: Preliminary study results and a comprehensive adaptation strategy”，載Smith, J.N. 等編: Adapting to Climate Change: An International Perspective，紐約，1996年。

31 Huang, Zhenguo等人: “Coastal inundation due to sea level rise in the Pearl River Delta, China”，2004年，Natural Hazards，卷 33，頁247至264。

32 Enright, Michael等人: The Greater Pearl River Delta，2005年10月第三版。氣候變化對香港及珠江三角洲的影響 65 中文

圖10 大珠三角地區的土地用途: 紅色代表城市地區資料來源: 香港科技大學環境研究所

三角洲平原的北部邊緣，早於唐朝(約1,400年前)已進行開墾，自此以後，開墾速度逐漸加快；在過去五十年，所有開墾地被合併為逾100個圈佔地，由防汛設施保護。33 近年發展成為城市地區和工業區的土地，大部分都位於珠江及其支流的泛濫平原內。

受本身地勢、土地開墾歷史，以及區內不少土地是天然泛濫平原的事實影響，大珠三角一直都受到河水或潮水泛濫、颱風、鹹水入侵等天然災害威脅；這些災害更會因氣候變化而加劇。我們將會在以下章節，就大珠三角地區氣溫、降雨量、風暴及海平面變化的預測進行探討。

(a) 氣溫上升

香港天文臺根據中國氣象局國家氣候中心於1951至2000年間，在華南地區28個氣象站蒐集到的資料，證實區內的平均氣溫經以上升。34 自1885年起，香港天文臺總部録得的年平均氣溫也上升了，幅度大約是每10年增加攝氏0.12度(總升幅大約是攝氏1.44度)。35

香港天文臺同時依據1961至1990年的「氣候正常平均值」，發表了本世紀最後10年的氣溫預測36，估計在本世紀末，香港的年平均氣溫將上升攝氏3.5度。每年夏季酷熱白天(即最高氣溫達攝氏33度或以上)的日數將會大致倍增，從11日增加到 24日；而酷熱晚上(即最低氣溫達攝氏28度或以上)亦會增加至每年30日，即現時正常水平的4倍。至於冬季的寒冷日子(即最低氣溫在攝氏12度或以下)，日數將會由現時每年21日減少到不足1日。37

33 Huang等人: 前引文，2004年，頁249。

34 為中國不同地區的氣溫建立一套清晰的歷史紀錄並非易事。政府間氣候變化專業委員會一些數據顯示，在過去逾100年，除了沿岸一帶之外，華南地區東部的氣溫下跌了攝氏1至2度，見Watson，Zinyowera，Moss: 前引書，1997年；此外，較近期的研究則證實了全中國有暖化的趨勢，參見Wang, Z等人 “An updating analysis of the climate change in China”，2004年，Acta Met. Sinica，第62期；又，有報告指華南地區在過去50年也出現暖化情況，見Wang, Z等人: “Impact of climate change on agriculture”，載Qin, D等人編著: Popular Topics on Global Climate Change Series，2003年）。外間普遍認為，暖化情況會持續到本世紀末，見Hui, J與Erda, L: “Building adaptive capacity for sustainable food production in China”，2006年。請瀏覽: http://developmentfirst.org/Dakar/adaptivesustainablefood- productionchina_hui&erda.pdf).

35 梁延剛等人: “Climate forecasting – what the temperature and rainfall in Hong Kong are going to be like in 100 years”，香港天文臺，2006年。請瀏覽: http://www.science.gov.hk/paper/HKO_YKLeung.pdf

36 同上引，頁3。

37 同上。 66 氣候變化對香港及珠江三角洲的影響中文

圖11 香港年平均氣溫: 歷史和推算數字資料來源: 香港天文臺

類似的情況很可能會在整個大珠三角地區出現，尤以對城市的影響最為嚴重。大珠三角的城市，不少正受到「城市熱島效應」的影響: 由於建築物排放熱力和空氣流動的特殊因素，導致發展密度高的城市地區録得高溫。

(b) 降雨量

電腦模擬顯示，若東亞和中國的二氧化碳濃度倍增，降雨量亦會同時增加。38 香港天文臺預測，21世紀的年平均降雨量，將每10年增加約1%。這個數字與中國氣象局國家氣候中心關於廣東省的數據相若。39

可是，增加的雨量並非平均分佈的。香港天文臺也曾作出警告，指出降雨量的年度變化將會增加，即是說會有更多年份會出現高於或低於平均數的降雨量。40 到本世紀末，預計全年暴雨41日數將會按年增加約1日。42

類似的天氣模式很可能會在大珠三角其他地區出現，當然個別地區依然有可能出現異常的情況。既然預計未來區內的降雨量會出現較大差異，我們更應就不同天氣模式所引起的一連串影響進行研究。

大珠三角現時已因人口增加、城市發展，以及耗水量極高的大型製造業生產活動，導致嚴重的供水困難。在降雨量不足的年份，區內對水資源的需求將會變得緊張。中國農業和工業的用水效率偏低，而珠三角的水務基建不足，難以滿足需求。

38 Zhao, Z等人: “Advances on detection and projection of impacts of human activity upon climate change over East Asia and China”，載於1999-2002 China National Report on Meteorology and Atmospheric Sciences，the 23rd General Assembly of International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics，2003年6月30日至7月11日。 http://led.scsio.ac.cn/IAMAS/03%20ADVANCES%20ON%20DETECTION.htm

39 梁延剛等人: 前引文，2006年，頁4。

40 香港天文臺預測，將會有6年的全年降雨量超過3,343毫米（這是過去120年天文臺總部錄得的最高降雨量），有3年的全年降雨量則少於901毫米（過去120年的最低數字）。

41 即每小時降雨量超過30毫米。這是發出黃色暴雨警告信號的其中一個準則。

42 香港天文臺預測，暴雨日數將會由1961至1990年的5.6日，增加到6.5日，參見梁延剛等人: 前引文，2006年，頁5。氣候變化對香港及珠江三角洲的影響 67

相反，長期大雨會產生過量逕流(即既不蒸發掉又不滲入地表成為地下水的雨水43)，增加發生水災(已經是整個大珠三角的嚴重問題)和山泥傾瀉的風險。這些災害將會對建築物和基礎設施造成影響，以及導致運輸和商業活動經常受阻。即使是發展成熟的城市都可能由於一次暴雨災害而蒙受重大損失。例如在2001年9月，颱風納莉侵襲臺北，相關暴雨導致嚴重水中文災，造成損失約5億美元。44

圖12 香港山泥傾瀉造成的破壞資料來源: 挪威岩土工程研究院

全球暖化對熱帶氣旋活動的次數和強度有何影響，氣候專家意見不一。

現時並未有理論基礎，推斷熱帶氣旋出現次數的轉變45，而香港天文臺最近亦證實，目前仍未能就熱帶氣旋活動是否已經或將會因全球暖化而增加，找出確實答案。46 事實上，根據過去40年觀察所得，每年在香港300公里範圍內登陸的熱帶氣旋數目正以每十年減少0.17個的速率輕微下降，由60年代約3個減少至90年代的2.5個左右。47 香港科技大學的科學家相信，西太平洋暖池暖化可能令颱風的移動路徑趨向東面。換言之，颱風避過香港，改爲吹襲日本的機會大增，而香港的降雨量亦可能因此而增加，提高了發生泛濫的風險。

43 University of Illinois Department of Atmospheric Sciences: “Runoff: transfer of landwater to the oceans”， http://ww2010.atmos. uiuc.edu/(Gh)/guides/mtr/hyd/run.rxml

44 慕尼克再保險公司: Megacities-Megarisks. Trends and Challenges for Insurance and Risk Management，2004年。

45 Landsea, Chris: “Frequently Asked Questions – ‘What may happen to tropical cyclone activity due to global warming?’”，美國大西洋海洋氣象學實驗室颶風研究中心，2005年10月。http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/tcfaq/G3.html

46 Yeung, KH: “Keynote Address III. Issues related to global warming – myths, realities and warnings”，香港天文臺，2006年6月。 http://www.weather.gov.hk/publica/reprint/r647.pdf

47 香港天文臺: 〈全球變暖 — 香港的情況又如何？〉，香港特區政府新聞公報，2003年8月1日， http://www.hko.gov.hk/wxinfo/ news/2003/pre0801c.htm 68 氣候變化對香港及珠江三角洲的影響

然而，不少新證據正逐步顯示，海面溫度上升可能會導致熱帶氣旋強度的增加。48 其中，有幾位科學家聲稱可以辨別出在過去30年，熱帶氣旋增多和變得越來越強的趨勢，49 並指出這趨勢與海面溫度暖化有關。50 可是，這番言論在科學界引起中文了一些爭論，部分科學家持不同觀點，認爲近年強烈風暴數目的增加，只是反映出熱帶氣旋活動的週期性變化，而非一個新趨勢的形成。51

中國一些科學家堅稱，2006年異常強烈的颱風季節比往年提前約一個月出現，導致華南地區數以千計的市民死亡，那是與全球暖化有關的。中國氣象局局長秦大河最近表示，「在全球變暖的大前提下，異常強勁和不尋常的氣候和大氣事故次數增多。颱風強度一直在增加，而颱風登陸後的破壞力增強，移動路徑亦有異於平常。」52

至目前爲止，颱風定期侵襲華南地區，登陸後可能會引致極大破壞和人命損失。例如在2006年8月，颱風派比安單是在廣東省便奪去50多條人命，造成的損失估計高達6.75億美元。53 在同一月份，中國近50年最強的颱風桑美摧毀了5萬戶家園和導致超過1,000艘船隻沉沒。54 強烈風暴令建築物負荷增加，結構性以至非結構性的部分都受到影響55，並危害電纜及其他基建設施。強勁的風速影響到起重機和棚架的安全性，亦會導致建造工程和港口及機場等大型設施的運作經常受阻。

即使現時的熱帶氣旋活動情況不變，預計風暴對沿岸地區將會因海平面上升和風暴潮增高而帶來更大破壞。沿岸堤壩被淹沒和出現決口的風險和次數都會大大增加。假若氣候變化真的會在未來為大珠三角地區帶來更多和更強的熱帶風暴，那麽上述各種嚴重氣象事故所造成的破壞將會變本加厲。

48 Landsea, Chris: 前引文，2005年。

49 Webster, PJ等人: “Changes in tropical cyclone number, duration and intensity in a warming environment”，2005年，《科學》期刊，2005年9月16日，第309卷，第5742號，頁1844-1846。

50 Webster, P.J. 等人: “Response to Comment on ‘Changes in Tropical Cyclone Number, Duration and Intensity in a Warming Environment’”，2006年，《科學》期刊，2006年3月24日，第311卷，第5768號，頁1713c。 http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/reprint/ 311/5768/1713c 又見Hoyos, C.D. 等人: “Deconvolution of the Factors Contributing to the Increase in Global Hurricane Intensity”， 2006年，《科學》期刊，2006年4月7日，第312卷，第5770號，頁94。

51 例如Chan, Johnny CL: “Comment on ‘Changes in Tropical Cyclone Number, Duration, and Intensity in a Warming Environ- ment’”，2006年3月24日，《科學》期刊，第311卷，第5768號，頁1713b。http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/full/311/5768/ 1713b

52 法新社: “Warming reportedly behind China’s killer typhoons”, 2006年8月15日。http://www.taipeitimes.com/News/world/archives/2006/08/15/2003323278

53 Dartmouth Flood Observatory: “2006 Global register of major flood events”，http://www.dartmouth.edu/~floods/Archives/2006sum. htm。

54 美聯社: “China death toll from typhoon climbs to 319”，2006年8月15日，MSNBC Weather，http://www.msnbc.msn.com/ id/14284650/

55 聯合國拉丁美洲和加勒比經濟委員會: Manual for estimating the socio-economic effects of natural disasters，1999年。氣候變化對香港及珠江三角洲的影響 69 中文

圖13 超級颱風18W(碧利斯)，2000年8月攝影: Geoff Mackley

(d) 相對的海平面上升

過去10至15年，中國進行過多項詳盡的研究，嘗試預測大珠三角地區相對海平面上升的速度，以及繼而在區內部分地方造成水災和泛濫的風險。有關海平面上升的幅度、對河口和河系的水位影響，以至前兩者對三角洲地區的衝擊，我們依然有大量研究工作需要進行，才可以就上述問題取得共識。

然而有一點是大家意見一致的，就是大珠三角的海平面正在上升，而且情況將會持續。此外，由於自然地理環境和城市發展的關係，區內極易受到海平面上升影響，不少低窪地帶將會被淹浸沒。56 中國國家海洋局杜碧蘭在2002年領導的研究顯示，大珠三角是最容易受海平面上升威脅的地區之一。57

此外，中國科學院在1994年進行的調查發現，海岸的天然進積(即由於沉積物逐漸增加而導致海岸線向海推進)和土地開墾，令河口區支流的海平面每年上升0.5至1毫米，預計情況尚會持續一段時間。中科院預測，珠三角海平面到2010年會上升15至30釐米，到2030年會上升30至40釐米，而到2050年會上升40至60釐米。58 基於地殼垂直活動的變化、地層下陷、河口水位上升等因素，在三角洲不同地區的海平面上升速度將有所分別。59

廣東省科學院在2003年發表了一個為期8年的研究，宣稱廣東省沿岸的海平面正以每年1釐米的速度上升，到2030年可能會上升共30釐米。根據國家海洋資訊中心的計算，若海平面上升30釐米，在到達最高漲潮點時，潮水可能淹沒沿岸地區和島嶼面積達1,154平方公里。廣州、斗門縣和佛山最易受泛濫威脅。60

黃鎮國等人最近根據香港和澳門的潮汐紀錄，以及河口回水影響及地層長期下陷等因素所進行的一項研究，同意珠江河口相對海平面到2030年會上升大約30釐米。61 這項研究並指出，河口內不同地點的海平面上升速度將有所不同，反映河口回水情況和其他地理因素的影響。

56 Yang, H: 前引文，1996年，頁265。

57 Zhang Zhiping，2004年3月: “Rising seas threaten coastal cities”，Beijing Review，第47卷，第9號，頁24至25 。http://www.bjreview.com.cn/200409/Nation-200409(A).htm

58 中國科學院地學部: 《海平面上升對中國三角洲地區的影響及對策》，1994年，北京，科學出版社。

59 Yang, H: 前引文，1996年，頁267。

60 劉克: 〈海面年上升速度1釐米 2030年廣州有被淹之險〉，《人民日報》，2003年7月25日，http://www.people.com.cn/GB/huan- bao/1074/1984085.html。

61 Huang等人: 前引文，2004年，頁254。 70 氣候變化對香港及珠江三角洲的影響

泛濫問題已經在珠三角很多地區反複出現，包括不少市區地方。例如，廣州在暴雨或漲潮過後便經常出現水浸。泛濫也是中文香港關注的問題。在暴雨期間，香港北部的天然泛濫平原和位於鄉郊的低窪地區，以至城市舊區的個別地點，都會出現嚴重水災。62

圖14及圖15 廣州(左)和佛山(右): 洪水泛濫資料來源: http://www.ycwb.com (左) http://news.bbc.co.uk (右)

大珠三角的海岸和河水泛濫受幾個因素影響: 降雨量、潮漲、強風、颱風及風暴潮。由於河口呈漏斗形狀，再加上回水影響，上游的水位較高。在珠江河口部分地區，天氣和潮汐因素令水位超越3米，這已是眾所周知的事。根據黃鎮國等人的研究，潮差(即漲潮與退潮間的高差)從河口沿著上游增加，由香港的2.34米，赤灣的3.31米，增至南沙的3.35米。63 海平面上升30釐米將會大大影響大珠三角的漲潮位。同樣地，海平面上升會加劇風暴潮對三角洲的影響。當上述的天氣和潮汐因素同時出現，區內的風暴潮可能變得極強，一旦把海平面上升的因素也計算在內，發生大規模水災的機會非常之大。

香港科技大學環境研究所曾進行大量的電腦模型工作，以評估汛期海平面上升對大珠三角的影響，以及將來洪水泛濫的覆蓋範圍。研究人員在考慮到潮漲、風暴潮，以至洪水淹沒所有堤圍等不同現象的影響之後，按海平面的上升幅度設定了一系列的情景。下列插圖顯示出大珠三角在平均海平面上升1至6米後，模擬被水淹沒的土地範圍。

62 Fung Wing Yee: Characterizing the climate change impact in Hong Kong，香港環境保護署，2004年9月23日。http://www.epd.gov. hk/epd/english/environmentinhk/air/studyrpts/files/Executive_Summary_final.pdf。

63 Huang等人: 前引文，2004年，頁253。氣候變化對香港及珠江三角洲的影響 71 中文

圖16 大珠三角現時的平均海平面 (淺藍色是海洋，深藍色是最低窪地區)

圖17 大珠三角在海平面上升3米後(即現時嚴重泛濫時水位的平均升幅)的情況: 淹沒地區包括廣州市市區、珠海、江門，以及泛濫平原 72 氣候變化對香港及珠江三角洲的影響中文

圖18 大珠三角在海平面上升4米後的情況: 淹沒地區包括珠海、江門及廣州三地之間幾乎所有地區，洪水湧往東莞

圖19 大珠三角在海平面上升6米後的情況: 淹沒地區擴大至珠三角西部和東莞一帶，香港亦受到嚴重影響資料來源: 香港科技大學環境研究所氣候變化對香港及珠江三角洲的影響 73

泛濫重現期

過去40年，大珠三角在39個驗潮站總共錄得190次泛濫事故。黃鎮國等人的研究利用了這些資料，計算出基礎的「泛濫重中文現期」(即兩個強度相若的泛濫事故的相隔時間)，並把海平面上升幅度設定為30釐米，推斷出未來的泛濫重現期。預期大珠三角不少地區的重現期都會大大縮短，令過去百年一遇的大水在將來可能每50年或20年便出現一次。64

香港天文臺也特別針對香港的情況，進行了類似研究，預計本港的海平面若上升48釐米(即政府間氣候變化專業委員會《第三次評估報告》所指出的2100年全球海平面上升的平均值)，本來是50年一遇的大水事故，未來的重現期有可能縮短至大約 3年。65

IV. 氣候變化的影響

(1) 對人體健康的影響

天氣酷熱不單令人感到不適，它甚至可以致命。熱浪增多或增強，很可能會增加心肺疾病的發病率和死亡率。政府間氣候變化專業委員會根據一個關於六十五歲以上上海居民的研究發現，酷熱致死的臨界溫度是攝氏34度；此外，在上海因酷熱致死的個案到2050年將會較現時增加3.6至7.1倍。66

很多疾病都會受氣候環境改變影響。氣溫上升會令蚊子更容易滋生，增加如瘧疾和登革熱等由蚊子傳播的疾病的風險。由於氣候環境更適合細菌和微生物繁殖，預計由食物和食水傳播的疾病將會變得更嚴重和發生得更頻密。67

氣候變化亦有可能增加酷熱天氣和空氣污染甚高的日子。政府間氣候變化專業委員會預測，全球暖化會加速大氣中化學污染物的光化學反應率，因而令市區的氧化劑增加。高濃度的光化學氧化劑會引致眼睛過敏、嚴重呼吸道過敏、哮喘發病率增加和削弱肺功能等。68

氣溫上升會為居民和旅客帶來不便: 工作環境欠舒適、空調費用增加，又或是更嚴重的問題如空氣污染惡化，以及隨之而來的健康危機。香港和珠三角城市的公眾都會出現各種不良反應，在未來日子更會影響民生。香港的空氣污染問題現已非常嚴重。69 雖然珠三角地區可能會盡力使用潔淨能源以遏止空氣污染，但預計氣溫上升只會令污染情況繼續惡化。

(2) 對生態的影響

氣候變化對大珠三角的生態影響，預期會十分嚴重，同時會加深區內因城市發展和高速工業化發展對生態環境所造成的深遠影響。海岸生態系統對氣候變化的影響非常敏感，而生物棲息地的消失或環境改變，可能會減少動植物品種的數量。海平面上升將會破壞沿海地區的生態和環境平衡。70

例如根據政府間氣候變化專業委員會的研究，氣溫、降雨模式及蒸發蒸騰(即水分從植物莖葉蒸發到大氣中)過程的變化，

64 同上，頁254。

65 Yeung: 前引文，2006年，頁8。

66 Watson，Zinyowera，Moss: 前引書，1997年。

67 澳洲溫室氣體管理局: “Impacts & Adaptation – Health”，2006年。http://www.greenhouse.gov.au/impacts/health.html

68 Watson，Zinyowera，Moss: 前引書，1997年。

69 與空氣污染有關的報導和研究，數目一直在增加，例如陸恭蕙: Boomtown to Gloomtown: The Implications of Inaction，香港，里昂證券亞太市場，2006年9月；柏蔚元、吳家穎及林楚彬，《對珠三角惡劣的空氣污染﹕香港製造業責無旁貸》，香港科技大學環境研究所及思匯政策研究所，2006年3月。

70 引述中國氣象局氣候專家丁一匯的講話。見”Global Warming Accelerates China’s Sea Level Rise”，《人民日報》，2002年4月 13日。http://english.people.com.cn/200204/13/eng20020413_93966.shtml 74 氣候變化對香港及珠江三角洲的影響

或會導致湖泊和溪流的水平面下降或大幅波動。生物棲息地的特徵和植物群落的轉變，可能會導致物種繁殖力下降，尤其是魚類和無脊椎動物。生物多樣性一旦降低，將會令水質在漫長的夏季枯水期嚴重惡化(例如溶解氧濃度低、有害物質濃度中文高或溫度高等)，又或導致原本長年流動的溪水乾涸。在人類活動頻密和水源需求上升的水系統，這些情況將會變得更壞。 71

在大珠三角，預計因海平面上升而出現的生態問題包括海岸侵蝕、土壤和地下水鹽漬化，以及淺灘和沼澤環境轉壞等。這樣可能會導致沿海濕地的損失、生態系統出現重大變化，以及珍稀瀕危物種的棲息地受到進一步侵吞。72

泛濫可能會增加河口和沿岸生態系統的沉積物和養分，對很多魚類賴以生存的棲息地帶來極大影響。73 大珠三角的濕地，例如香港的米埔(中國第六大沿岸濕地)74，是重要的鳥類棲息地，也是很多魚類和無脊椎動物的重要產卵地，但這些濕地正受到海平面上升和咸水入侵的嚴重威脅。濕地本來擁有退回内陸的自然調適能力，卻受到人為建築物(例如道路、堤壩、沿岸防禦設施等)的阻礙。

圖20 琵鷺在米埔濕地覓食攝影: Eric Fletcher

71 Watson，Zinyowera，Moss: 前引書，1997年。

72 中國國家海洋資訊中心環境部主任陳滿春的講話，載於Zhang: 前引文，2004年，頁24。http://www.epochtimes.com/b5/4/1/31/ n457991.htm

73 澳洲溫室氣體管理局: “Impacts & Adaptation – Biodiversity”，2006年。 http://www.greenhouse.gov.au/impacts/biodiversity.html

74 Fung: 前引書，2004年，頁112。氣候變化對香港及珠江三角洲的影響 75

(3) 對基建的影響中文「因天然災難而引致的全球性損失，在20世紀下半葉迅速增加，情況令人憂慮。自1980年代中期以後，這趨勢似乎變得更根深柢固。」75

極端天氣事故會破壞基建設施。一般來說，城市的發展和基礎建設的建造必須考慮可接受的風險極限，而風險的評估則要參考強風、暴雨、風暴潮等事故的預計發生頻率。一旦超越了風險的閾限，損毀程度將會不成比例地快速提升。76

如前所述，我們現時仍未能確定氣候變化會否帶來更多和更強的熱帶氣旋。但在一個如大珠三角般容易受災的地區，再加上資產和人口密集的因素，嚴重天氣事故肯定會造成更大的財物損失，這點是顯而易見的。77

根據估計，極端天氣事故在本世紀造成的直接損失，可能高達每年1,000億美元。78 世界銀行的資料顯示，24%的資本投資是與公共基礎建設有關的。79 即使我們假設基建投資的風險並不高於其他資本投資類別，基建所占的全球性直接損失依然會高達每年超過250億美元。80

我們已經在前面部分指出，面對因暴雨、颱風和風暴潮造成的大規模水災，大珠三角地區將要承受極大風險。世界銀行在發表關於天然災難影響的研究報告時強調，洪水氾濫會對基建設施造成大規模破壞、削弱生產力，以及導致農作物嚴重失收。81

以下圖表綜述了天氣事故對基建造成的部分影響。

天氣事故對地面的影響對基建的影響

颶風、颱風、氣旋 • 強風 • 破壞建築物、配電線、和高壓線 • 雨水造成的水災 • 破壞橋樑和建築物；山泥傾瀉 • 風暴造成的水災 • 破壞橋樑、道路和建築物

旱災 • 泥土乾涸 • 土壤收縮破壞建築物地基和地下 • 強烈陣風基建 • 沙漠化 • 建築物頂部給強風吹毀

水災 • 土壤侵蝕 • 大廈地基變弱 • 水分飽和及山泥傾瀉 • 大廈被掩埋；其他設施遭受破壞 • 泥土沉積 • 水力發電堤壩和排水系統的功能受損

取材自Freeman與Warner82

75 慕尼克再保險公司: 前引書，1999年。

76 Allen Consulting Group: Climate Change: Risk and Vulnerability，悉尼，澳洲溫室氣體管理局，2005年。http://www.greenhouse. gov.au/impacts/publications/pubs/risk-vulnerability.pdf

77 Paul Freeman 與 Koko Warner: Vulnerability of infrastructure to climate variability: how does this affect infrastructure lending policies? 2001年10月，頁10。

78 慕尼克再保險公司: 前引書，1999年。

79 世界銀行: 《世界發展指數》，1999年。

80 Freeman與Warner: 前引書，2004年，頁11。

81 Benson, C. 與 Clay, E.J.: “Developing Countries and the Economic Impacts of Natural Disasters”，載於Kreimer, A. 等編: Managing Disaster Risk in Emerging Economies ，世界銀行，2000年。

82 Freeman與Warner: 前引書，2004年，頁15。 76 氣候變化對香港及珠江三角洲的影響

水災會損毀建築物結構，導致土壤侵蝕，因而令大廈地基變弱。水災造成的泥土沉積，會破壞排水系統，損毀埋在地下的中文管道和半埋地下的水缸，並危害堤壩結構和抽水設施。83 相反，在旱災發生時，由於土壤濕度降低，地層便會下陷，影響地下管道和電纜。84 暴風令建築物負荷加重，影響結構性和非結構性的部分，但只會輕微影響地基和地下設施。暴風也會損毀配電線和高壓線。85

香港現時擁有的基建設施，比中國任何一個地方都要先進。大珠三角的其他地區已經規劃了多個投資項目，大規模地擴公路、鐵路和地下鐵路系統。其中，廣州、深圳、東莞、佛山等地將會進行龐大的城市發展工程，而澳門則打算大量投資在基建和娛樂設施上。86 因此，氣候變化事故對大珠三角的基建設施和建築物，可能會造成嚴重破壞。

我們將會在以下篇幅，闡述氣候變化對大珠三角部分公共基建設施可能會造成的影響:

(a) 海岸和河岸堤壩

大型河流的洪水管制，以及沿岸防汛設施的興建和保養，對中國經濟持續發展是至為重要的。大珠三角地區早已興建了大規模的防汛設施，例如堤壩、防波堤，以及建於市區的蓄洪池和抽水站等，以保護區內低窪地帶。

珠江的防洪工作，主要依賴防洪堤和蓄水池。87 在2001年，區內有34個大型蓄水池，總容量達3,120億立方米。此外，區內還有總長達11,000公里的堤壩和防波堤。在主流兩岸和三角洲地區修建的堤壩，預料可抵受為期10至20年的洪水；88只有最重要的堤壩，才會設計成可以抵禦50至100年的洪水或潮漲。現有的大部分基建設施都是1950年代的構思，並以當時的氣候預測而設計的。

上文曾經提及，當海平面上升30釐米，預計對未來風暴潮的高度和大型水災的重現期都會帶來重大影響，隨時把現有的防洪設施摧毀。颶風卡特里娜在2005年侵襲美國，災後影響嚴重，並清楚顯示當保護低窪地區的防波堤失效，造成的後果將會是災難性的。氣候變化只會進一步加重大珠三角地區防洪設施的壓力。

廣東省科學院在2003年所做的研究提出了警告，指現時的堤壩系統和防洪措施是無法應付上述情況的。他們的報告已提交省級機關和廣州、深圳、珠海及中山的市級單位，以便規劃新的措施，包括興建高於漲潮點的新堤壩。廣東省科學院的黃鎮國認為，一旦若發生災難性水災，損失將會非常慘重；與之相比，興建堤壩和防洪工程的龐大投資便顯得微不足道。89

83 同上，頁14。

84 Entek UK Limited 等: London’s Warming: Impacts of Climate Change on London，2002年。http://www.ukcip.org.uk/resources/ publications/documents/London_summary.pdf

85 Freeman與Warner: 前引書，2004年，頁14。

86 Enright等人: 前引書，2005年，頁16。

87 Zhang, Hai-Lun 與 Wen, Kang: “Flood control and management for large rivers in China”，載Proceedings of Workshop on Strength- ening Capacity in Participatory Planning and Management for Flood Mitigation and Preparedness in Large River Basins: Regional Coop- eration in Flood Control and Management in Asia and the Pacific, Phase II，曼谷，2001年11月，頁41至67。

88 同上引，頁51。

89 Pun, Pamela: “42pc of Delta Faces Sea Threat: Study”，《英文虎報》，2003年7月28日。http://www.thestandard.com.hk/news_ detail.asp?pp_cat=&art_id=3419&sid=&con_type=1&d_str=20030728&sear_year=2003 氣候變化對香港及珠江三角洲的影響 77

(b) 地面運輸

氣溫上升，將會對運輸基建的不同部分帶來負面影響，可能導致服務受阻及增加維修保養方面的開支。中文

大珠三角地區正計劃投放大量資金發展公路，部分項目當中涉及建造大型橋樑。例如，將於2007年落成啟用的深圳西部通道，便包括了一條長四公里的公路大橋，跨越后海灣。90 現時正在討論當中的，是連接香港、珠海和澳門，橫跨珠江30公里的港珠澳大橋。預計大橋需時5年建成，投資金額達40億美元。91

任何同類基建項目都會因氣候變化而要面對更多來自氣候方面的壓力。由暴雨引致的水災、風暴、山泥傾瀉等，都會嚴重損害橋樑和道路等大型建造工程。在低窪地區，公路通常低於周圍的土地，一旦發生水災，這些地區將會首當其衝。92

在英格蘭進行的一項研究顯示，道路也會因氣溫上升而出現不同變化，包括路面出現車轍、路堤下陷、混凝土路面變壞、伸縮縫出現問題、塵埃水平上升及防滑功能減退等。93 嚴重乾旱更會令公路地基收縮，破壞公路結構。94 我們需要進行更多研究，斷定大珠三角會否因平均氣溫上升，對區內用以修建道路的泥土和建築材料，帶來類似的影響。

圖21 廣東: 遭洪水破壞的道路資料來源: 美國有線電視新聞網(CNN)

城市內的道路運輸經常因地下供水系統、喉管或電纜的維修工程而大受影響。在倫敦，氣溫上升會影響當地黏土的收縮和膨脹，預料會對地下供水系統造成損壞，令維修工程變得更頻密，結果對道路交通造成更大滋擾。95 同樣地，大珠三角會否出現類似情況，仍待作進一步研究。

90 香港特區政府環境運輸及工務局: 〈最新消息: 跨境交通運輸〉。 http://www.etwb.gov.hk/whats_new/Cross_Boundary_Traffic/Cross_boundary_Traffic_1/index.aspx?langno=2&nodeid=1586

91 “Building of Mega-Bridge Set to Start at Year End”，《人民日報》，2006年1月12日。 http://english.peopledaily.com. cn/200601/12/eng20060112_234873.html

92 Titus, Jim:“Does sea level rise matter to transportation along the Atlantic coast?”，載於The Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Transportation: Workshop Summary and Proceedings，United States Department of Transportation，2002年10月，頁1至16。http:// climate.dot.gov/workshop1002/titus.pdf

93 London Climate Change Partnership: Climate Change and London’s Transport Systems，London，Greater London Authority， 2005年。http://www.ukcip.org.uk/resources/publications/documents/109.pdf

94 Freeman與Warner: 前引書，2004年，頁14。

95 London Climate Change Partnership: 前引書，2005年，頁18。 78 氣候變化對香港及珠江三角洲的影響

鐵路線，例如廣州和香港之間的高速列車服務，使大珠三角地區交通運輸網絡的重要部分。風暴和水災會阻礙鐵路運輸服務，導致車站暫時關閉，和破壞基礎設施。例如颱風碧利斯在2006年7月侵襲中國時，水災便中斷了廣州和北京之間的鐵中文路服務，影響數以千計的乘客。96 在美國，颶風卡特里娜造成了更大規模的影響，新奧爾良市內和周圍的鐵路場都受到嚴重破壞，甚至被摧毀。97 高溫和極度乾旱的天氣會導致地基收縮、路軌變形、焊接路軌扭曲等情況出現，破壞鐵路系統。98

圖22 風暴對中國鐵路造成破壞資料來源: 中國網(http://www.china.org.cn)

香港、廣州及深圳的地下鐵路系統現時正迅速擴建，它們除了會由於地下水出現變化而出現隧道結構問題(例如隧道牆壁要承受更大的水壓)，也很可能會受到泛濫的影響。99 當然，暴雨也會導致鐵路系統出現電力問題，例如在2006年9月，暴雨過後曾發生線路故障，令香港的鐵路服務受阻。100

嚴重天氣事故除了直接破壞運輸基建之外，也可能會延誤了車用燃料的供應，另令部分鐵路及道路交通工具不能正常運作。

大珠三角的經濟成就建基於國際貿易，而航運業和物流業則繼續對當地的經濟發展作出重要的貢獻。海港是區內運輸基建極重要的一環，負責把製成品運送到海外。三角洲上游和西部地區的淤泥沉積情況嚴重，限制了當地港口的運作。多年來，香港是區內唯一擁有現代化設備的深水港。不過，深圳近年已發展了幾個貨櫃港。101

海平面上升，以及其對風暴潮和水災的影響，對港口和碼頭都會帶來嚴峻的威脅。正如英國多佛港董事會的Robert Mac- kenzie所描述: 「從營運的角度來看，海平面上升大概是我們未來將要面對的最大威脅。風暴潮的次數增加，尤其當強風和

96 美國有線電視新聞網，Asia Pacific:“Chinese Storm Kills More Than 180”，2006年7月18日。http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/ asia-pacific/5185314.stm

97 D’Amico, Esther 與 Bryner, Michelle:“Transportation Moving On in the Gulf”，Chemical Week，2005年10月19日，卷167，期 34，頁19至22。

98 Freeman與Warner：前引書，2004年，頁14。

99 Titus：前引文，2002年，頁5。

100 Parwani, Audrey：“Torrential rain causes widespread flooding Observatory record is broken, 600mm of rain is dumped on Sha Tin, and Jockey Club cancels night meeting”，《南華早報》，2006年9月14日。

101 Rohlen, Thomas P.：Hong Kong and the Pearl River Delta: “One Country, Two Systems” in the Emerging Metropolitan Context， 2000年。http://iis-db.stanford.edu/pubs/11897/Rohlen2000.pdfhttp://iis-db.stanford.edu/pubs/11897/Rohlen2000.pdf。氣候變化對香港及珠江三角洲的影響 79

巨浪同時出現時，會帶來嚴重的問題。」102

海平面上升和風暴潮增加，會提高碼頭和防波堤被淹浸的機會，從而影響碼頭運作。巨浪亦會加速潮水對水利設施的沖刷中文作用，縮短它們的壽命。在港口及主要航道附近，海平面變化將會改變海岸、海灘的侵蝕和沉積之間的平衡關係。103 由於區內港口本已面對沉積問題，上述情況將會為港口營運帶來更大的考驗，預計挖泥的成本亦會上升。此外，其他因素如水溫上升和鹽分增加，也可能會對港口設施造成影響。

通常都會有大量運輸設施把港口地區連接到內陸地區，包括道路和鐵路系統。這些運輸網絡若因氣候影響而服務受阻，將會延誤船用燃料的供應或令貨品無法付運，因而損害港口營運。

長遠而言，港口營運者面對的最主要變數，是大珠三角將會採取的基建防衛策略。假若政府決定興建一個大規模的堤壩系統作為保護，那麽問題便在於我們是否沿現時的海岸線作興建，還是採用荷蘭縮短海岸線的做法(即興建大型堤壩橫跨海灣的入口或河口)。若選擇後者，一些港口便會位於堤壩之內。船隻進出便要駛經船閘，又或考慮在堤壩外興建新的深水港口。無論如何，現有營運商的生意將受到打擊。104

圖23 荷蘭「三角洲工程」堤壩系統資料來源: Stichting Deltawerken Online

102 Wade, S. 等人：Rising to the challenge. Impacts of Climate Change in the South East. Technical Report，South East Climate Change Partnership，1999年，頁29。http://www.ukcip.org.uk/resources/publications/documents/south_east_tech.pdf

103 Yang, Guishan 與 Shi, Yafeng：“Impacts of sea level rise on major projects and urban development in China’s coastal plains”， 1996年，Journal of Chinese Geography，第6卷，第4號，頁66至74。

104 Titus：前引文，2002年，頁9。 80 氣候變化對香港及珠江三角洲的影響

(d) 機場

中文大珠三角地區(包括香港和澳門)共有5個機場，其中最大的是香港赤鱲角機場，在2005年接待旅客超過3,600萬人次。《香港國際機場發展藍圖2020》訂立了提升機場處理能力的時間表，目標是在2020年左右，每年接待旅客8,700萬人次和處理 900萬公噸貨物。105 廣州新白雲機場是中國三大航空樞紐之一，也是中國最具規模和最先進的機場，106 在2004年接待旅客超過2,000萬人次和處理接近65萬公噸貨物。107

諸如香港般的沿岸城市，往往隨潮汐水流方向和在填海區興建機場，跑道因此容易受到洪水威脅。108 雖然赤鱲角機場現時位於海拔6米，但區內海平面上升的估值，加上風暴潮的影響，可能會增加機場受洪水威脅的風險。當颱風風力增強時，對機場的破壞亦會逐步加劇，包括損壞停泊中的飛機、飛機庫或機場大樓等。氣溫上升將會影響跑道和機場道路，例如導致混凝土變質、輪轍出現、地層下陷等，跟道路所受的影響類同。

大珠三角內其他運輸網受損，將會影響飛機燃料的供應或貨物的運送，因而延長了飛機的停留時間，影響機場運作。

風暴和水災或會嚴重干擾運空運輸，令區内機場關閉一段長時間。客運服務受阻導致大量旅客滯留機場，將會令機場設施承受巨大壓力，同時會為機場營運者帶來重大的管理難題。

(e) 供水

隨著人口增長和工業發展，大珠三角現時已感受到水源需求增加的壓力。在個別地區，即使已經發展了食水管理和污水處理系統，也未必可以滿足需求。另一方面，不少人在沒有監管的情況下抽取地下水，令水質和地層下陷問題惡化。

淡水供應

珠三角的河流現時已面對著鹹度增加、配給過度、水質下降等壓力，預期氣候變化只會令壓力進一步增加。降雨量減少自然會減少可供人類使用的食水。此外，供水減少也會影響河道的水質，而乾旱情況則會加速土壤侵蝕，導致降雨後有更多淤泥進入河道。109 我們預計，珠三角各地的食水處理設施將要作大規模擴充和提高質素，以應付原水(即未經處理的水)質量下降的問題。

海平面上升將會導致三角洲內出現潮水上溯的現象。根據《中國氣候變化國別研究》在1994年的初步結果，以及中國科學院所做的調查顯示，潮水界限移動，把鹹水帶到上游。若大珠三角的海平面上升40至60釐米，倒流的海水可能會深入上游多達3公里。即使在乾枯期，鹹潮也可以到達廣州，影響居民的食水供應。110

污水與污物處理

海平面上升和暴雨會加重排水系統的負荷。當海平面上升至高於地面線時，雨水排放管道便會注滿海水。海水可能會倒流到管道内，或令雨水難以經管道排到大海，兩种情況最終都會引致泛濫。111 大珠三角現存的很多排水系統都不足以應付需

105 InvestHK：“Industry Today. Hong Kong’s Transportation and Logistics Industry Today”，2006年6月。http://www.investhk. gov.hk/pages/1/313.aspx

106 香港貿易發展局：“Market Profiles on Chinese Cities and Provinces. PRD Economic Profile”。http://www.tdctrade.com/mktprof/ china/prd.htm

107 廣東省機場管理集團公司：〈集團介紹〉http://www.baiyunairport.com/about.jsp

108 Titus：前引文，2002年，頁4。

109 澳洲溫室氣體管理局：“Impacts & Adaptation – Water Resources”，2006年。http://www.greenhouse.gov.au/impacts/water. html。

110 Yang, H：前引文，1996年，頁269。

111 香港渠務署：〈防洪 > 如何減少水浸損失〉，2006年6月，http://www.dsd.gov.hk/flood_prevention/how_to_reduce_damage/she- 氣候變化對香港及珠江三角洲的影響 81

要。以廣州為例，海水倒流至排水系統導致潮水泛濫的情況定期出現。若海平面上升引發潮水高漲，以上情況定會惡化。 112 中文

對於針對海平面上升進行相應的設計和安排，香港渠務署的看法是: 「靜觀其變……至少現在是這樣」。113 基於香港一些低窪地區目前已經受潮漲和暴雨所引發的海水倒流影響，飽受泛濫威脅，加上海平面上升只會令情況進一步惡化，政府有必要在未來數年制訂一套更積極進取的政策。

海平面上升和鹹水上溯，同樣會令珠三角的天然灌溉和排水系統失效。這樣一來，市鎮的生活污水將會更難排走，令河流網和堤岸地區的污染加劇。現時每20年重現一次的水災有可能會縮短至大約每5年重現一次，令灌溉和排水成本上升15至 20%。114

相反，隨著天氣模式趨於兩極化，在降雨量較低的年份，珠三角河流網絡的水量將會減少，污水處理後的污物更難稀釋。我們似乎需要使用改良的污水處理科技，處理環境的挑戰和應付因珠三角城市發展而導致的污水增加問題。假若工業和城市繼續增加水源負荷，珠三角地區可能需要開發污水循環系統，讓部分污水得以循環再用。

(f) 供電

氣候變化可能會增加能源需求和中斷能源供應，對負責燃料分配和電力輸送的基建設施帶來重要的影響。

需求

過去20年，大珠三角的電力需求高速增長。在廣東省，電網系統已經超出負荷，系統容量亦不足以在所有時間全面供電。近年來，製造業經常面對公共電力定期短缺的情況，大部分工廠因而自行購買發電機發電。115

能源需求與氣溫關係密切。隨著大珠三角的人均收入增加，家用空調的使用一直上升，加上區內製造業採用複雜的生產程式，需要進行降溫和恆溫等步驟，令能源需求日增。香港環境保護署在2004年一項關於全球暖化對能源業影響的研究指出，假如香港氣溫上升攝氏1度，家用、商業和工業耗電量便會分別增加9.02%、3.13%及2.64%。116 由於香港工業規模極小，我們可以由此估計，大珠三角其他地區的耗電量數字將會高得多。

在大珠三角很多地區，包括香港、珠海和深圳，每逢風暴和漲潮過後，我們都要把洪水自排水系統抽出。抽水過程需要使用市電。發生泛濫的次數增加只會加重電網的負荷；假如抽水出現問題，長期積水亦會令電網容易發生故障。

供應

風暴或暴雨後的山泥傾瀉可能會破壞輸電和配電系統(電纜、電纜塔等)，電力供應將會因此而受阻。此外，高溫亦會減低輸電容量。117

大珠三角大部分的公用電力都是由燃煤發電廠供應，而發電機則以柴油和燃料油發動。要生産電力，就需要確保這些燃料的穩定供應。中國的煤炭和石油資源主要位於內陸和華北地區。118 因此對大珠三角來説，可靠的運輸和儲存設施對於有效 ungwan_low_area/index_c.htm。

112 同注73。

113 香港渠務署：〈市民應採取措施預防天文大潮引致水浸〉，2006年2月28日。

114 Yang, H：前引文，1996年，頁270。

115 柏蔚元、吳家穎及林楚彬：前引書，2006年，頁14。

116 Fung：前引書，2004年，頁50。

117 Allen Consulting Group：前引書，2005年，頁139。

118 陸恭蕙：《廣東省能源及燃料的供應》，思匯政策研究所，2006年3月。 82 氣候變化對香港及珠江三角洲的影響

的運送燃料是非常重要的。

中文廣東的煤炭大部分經由港口進口。假若如上文提及般，港口的運作或效率出現任何阻礙，區域發電廠的煤炭供應便會受到影響，再而影響電力供應。同一道理，任何經由港口運送的柴油或燃料油都可能會遇到類似影響。當監管廢氣排放的法規在將來要強制使用潔淨燃料時，由於環保燃料大多會從外國入口，上述因素將會日益重要。此外，風暴或泛濫會阻塞道路和延誤交通，阻礙燃料供應和最終影響電力供應。

雖然廣東省主要是使用煤炭、柴油或燃料油生産電力(在2003年佔發電量的69%)，但水力發電也約佔五分之一。119 一般認為，水力發電堤壩同樣容易受到氣候變化的影響。一方面，旱年的河流水流量減少，可能會減少發電量；另一方面，若暴雨超出了整個系統的設計標準，堤壩可以會受損。一旦發生決堤或洪水滿溢，將會對下游地區帶來災難性的泛濫。120

(4) 對經濟的影響

氣候變化的科學研究正在發展當中，而按推斷有可能發生的氣候事故所導致的成本和經濟影響，有關的分析亦仍然處於起步階段。《斯特恩回顧》根據不同方面的實證和應用了多種評估成本和風險的技術，提出了迄今關於氣候變化的全球性經濟代價的最佳估算。《斯特恩回顧》發人深省的結論指: 「如果我們不採取行動的話，氣候變化的總代價和風險將相當於每年至少失去全球國內生産總值的5％，年年如此」。121 此外，「如果考慮到更廣泛的風險和影響的話，估計損失將上升到國內生産總值的20％或者更多。」122

我們雖然無法對大珠三角作出詳盡的經濟預測，但本報告卻提出了氣候變化威脅區內持續經濟發展，以至影響中國整體經濟的幾個途徑。在這方面，我們務必接受《斯特恩回顧》的忠告: 「儘早採取有力行動的益處遠遠超過了不採取行動的經濟代價」。123 由於大珠三角地區的受災風險特別高，這番説話對我們的意義特別重大。

(a) 氣候變化的經濟分析方法

套用經濟學的說法，氣候變化是經濟系統的一個外來「衝擊」，可以被視作以下兩种成本之一，並行進探討:

• 假設成本: 若個人、企業、政府沒有採取任何行動去避免或減低與這個衝擊有關的成本；或 • 採取行動減低部分影響的成本: 例如減少衝擊的規模，或以最有效方法調適衝擊的影響。124

我們已相當明白緩解氣候變化的經濟成本，正如我們十分清楚最有可能受到緩解政策及措施影響的行業。相比之下，我們依然不大瞭解氣候變化影響的經濟成本。125

當氣候變化研究愈趨成熟，「環境經濟學」這門科學便嘗試解答上述問題。學者曾提出多個理論框架，研究氣候變化所造成的影響；與此同時，不少人正努力建立模型技術，以求在不同的地理層面以及從經濟、環境與人文三個方面，量度氣候變化的影響。這類分析工作所要面對的一大挑戰，是嘗試量化氣候變化對「非經濟」資產(例如生態系統或社區狀況)所帶來的衝擊。

即使只是嘗試進行有關經濟因素的分析，都已經是一項艱巨的任務，因爲氣候變化的各種具體影響、這些影響的出現時間

119 這是2003年的百分比，見《2004中國電力年鑒》。又見柏蔚元、吳家穎及林楚彬：前引書，2006年，頁15。

120 Allen Consulting Group：前引書，2005年，頁138。

121 同注15。

122 同上。

123 同上。

124 Marsden Jacob Associates：Economic Issues Relevant to Costing Climate Change Impacts，澳洲溫室氣體管理局，2004年。 http:// www.greenhouse.gov.au/impacts/publications/pubs/costing.pdf

125 同上書，頁3。氣候變化對香港及珠江三角洲的影響 83

及可能性，以至它們對經濟系統的間接影響，都存在着不少變數。任何可行的調適策略，都會再為這項分析工作帶來一系列新的變數。中文

要評估氣候影響的淨成本，我們可以使用兩個層次的分析: 第一個是局部均衡分析，以探討氣候變化對單一市場或單一行業的影響；第二個是一般均衡分析，以研究氣候變化對整個經濟體系的影響。126 以下圖表勾畫出一個評估氣候變化影響成本的框架:

圖24 評估氣候變化影響成本的框架取材自Marsden Jacob Associates127

一般均衡分析通常會採用「可計算一般均衡」模型。它不但涵蓋經濟體系內所有領域，以及各個領域之間的相互影響，並且模擬出整個經濟體系的市場行為。可計算一般均衡模型的設計，是用作研究外來經濟「衝擊」(例如氣候變化引致的一種影響)所帶來的影響，通常以國內生產總值作量度單位。128 可計算一般均衡模型可以是綜合評估方法的其中一個部分，後者尋求結合生物物理評估和社會經濟評估，一般會應用的技術包括情景分析、定性評估和電腦模型等。129

據了解，至今仍沒有報告發表關於大珠三角地區氣候變化的所造成經濟影響的詳盡分析和定量評估，雖然個別研究曾經發表過有關的估計數字(下文將有引述)。這是一個仍需努力探討的研究範疇。

(b) 潛在威脅

珠三角經濟區由廣州、深圳、佛山、珠海、江門、中山、東莞，再加上惠州四個區縣和肇慶四個區縣組成，130 是中國在 1979年改革開放以來，全國最具活力的區域經濟體系。過去15年，珠三角經濟區成為了世界上其中一個具領導地位的電器

126 同上書，頁7。

127 同上書，頁42。

128 同上書，頁25。

129 同上書，頁29。

130 《廣東統計年鑒》，2004年。又見Enright等人：前引書，2005年，頁21。 84 氣候變化對香港及珠江三角洲的影響

與電子產品、鐘錶、玩具、成衣與紡織品、塑膠製品及其他產品的製造業生産中心。香港多年來一直是區內的金融和專業服務中心，也是區内東亞地區的主要運輸及物流樞紐。澳門是一個受遊客歡迎的旅遊勝地，現時更因發出了多個新的賭場中文牌照而發展迅速。

圖25 珠江三角洲經濟區資料來源: 香港貿易發展局

世界銀行最近發表的估計數字顯示，若海平面上升1至5米，中國的國內生產總值將會減少2.4%至10.8%。131 對於大珠三角這個佔全國國內生產總值很大比重的地區，世界銀行的數字並沒有帶來任何清晰的啓示。過去25年，珠三角經濟區的平均經濟增長是每年超過16%，高於全國的9.5%；在2004年，經濟區的國內生產總值大約是13,572億元人民幣(折合1,639億美元)，132 佔中國全國國內生產總值9.9%。同年，大珠三角地區﹝包括香港和澳門﹞的國內生產總值是3,369.8億美元。133

有多個研究分別指出，氣候變化可能會對珠三角經濟帶來沉重打擊。例如，中國氣象局在2002年發表的一個模擬結果便指出，若潮水出現新高，再加上海平面上升65釐米，便會有大約3,400平方公里的土地受泛濫影響，經濟損失高達1,808億元人民幣(約219億美元)。134 另外，中國民政部發表報告指出，在2006年1月1日至7月26日期間，與洪水有關的災難(包括颱風碧利斯)在廣東省造成的直接經濟損失達199億元人民幣(約25億美元)。135 這兩組數字可以用作參考比較。

雖然已發表了的預測數字未能取得共識，在分析大珠三角情況方面亦沒有公認的方法，但有一點是非常清晰的: 氣候變化將會多方面地威脅大珠三角的經濟表現，部分重點如下:

131 Buys, P等人：“Sea level rise from global warming: potential impact on developing countries”，載Brahmbhatt, Milan 等人：“Spe- cial focus. Climate change and East Asia: challenges and opportunities”，世界銀行，2006年3月。http://siteresources.worldbank.org/ INTEAPHALFYEARLYUPDATE/Resources/550192-1143237132157/special-focus-March06.pdf

132 此數字比實際數字略高，原因是計算時包括了整個惠州和肇慶，當中部分地區並不屬於珠三角經濟區。見Enright等人：前引書， 2005年，頁21。

133 同上注，頁24。

134 “Global Warming Accelerates China’s Sea Level Rise”，《人民日報》，2002年4月13日。 http://english.people.com. cn/200204/13/eng20020413_93966.shtml

135 International Federation of Red Cross：Appeal no. MDRCN001。 http://www.ifrc.org/docs/appeals/06/MDRCN001a.pdf 氣候變化對香港及珠江三角洲的影響 85

撥出公帑用於處理危機

由海平面上升和風暴潮引致的嚴重水災，在未來數十年將會出現頻繁。要處理嚴重水災，必需投入大量財政資源。政府將中文要承擔最大責任，造好準備和應變工作，例如包括:

• 監測和公眾警報系統 • 緊急回應和疏散群眾 • 清理災區 • 維修和重建公共設施 • 向社區和商界提供經濟援助

以上工作所需的經費，部分可以來自中央政府的撥款，但大部分費用將會由地方政府承擔。一些本來用作直接推動經濟活動的資金(例如改善運輸基建、科技發展或職業培訓)，由於現在有需要留作處理危機之用，因此可能會對區內的經濟發展帶來不良影響。

撥出公帑用於調適措施

海平面上升會增加發生水災的風險。要保護大珠三角的城鎮，便需要大量增建海岸和河岸防禦設施。一項估計指出，若要提升珠三角地區95個主要堤壩的設計標準，以應付30釐米的海平面上升幅度，整個工程需要1,750萬立方米的泥土和石塊。以1998年的價格計算，單是這個工程部分的費用就已經高達21.03億人民幣(2.629億美元)。136 世界各地的低窪地區和潮汐河口都興建了不少大型防洪堤壩，費用都極之高昂。例如用作保護倫敦的泰晤士河水閘及相關工程，2001年的造價大約是13億英鎊(約19億美元)；137 若要在2100年達到0.1%的標準(即泛濫機會率是1000比1)，初步估計在未來40年大約需要用40億英鎊(75億美元)。138

同一道理，我們可以從多個途徑籌集資金，建造防洪設施，但公帑既要用於興建防波堤和堤壩，可以直接投入發展大珠三角經濟的資金便會減少。此外，工程實際上或會在區內創造大量短期工作，但這些大多是低技術的工作，對經濟增長不會帶來明顯益處。

長遠來說，各個調適策略的成本效益分析的結論可能會指出，繼續增建堤圍病不是一個可持續策略，政府可能需要把資產和社區從部分地區撤離，把它們重新安置。這種行動將會加重成本，包括對棄用資產作出的賠償，而且也要付上龐大的社會代價。

商業收入減少

氣候出現變化，預計會令大珠三角内商業活動受到干擾的風險大增。

正如上文所述，運輸基建很容易受到風暴和水災的影響，這將會導致嚴重的延誤和擠塞，阻延原材料、零件或製成品的運送。珠三角不少工業都是依靠供應鏈帶動的，快捷運輸對維持他們的商業競爭力極為重要。

136 Huang等人：前引文，2004年，頁261。

137 Environment Agency：“Thames Region. Who Paid for the Thames Barrier?”，2006年。 http://www.environment-agency.gov. uk/regions/thames/323150/335688/341764/341783/?version=1&lang=

138 Entek UK Limited 等：前引書，2002年，頁12。 86 氣候變化對香港及珠江三角洲的影響

電力供應問題目前已妨礙着珠三角不少商業運作。例如在2005年第一季，廣州出現嚴重電力短缺，導致有716宗個別地區限制用電的個案。這些缺電的時間令廣州損失了100億元人民幣(約13億美元)的工業生產值。139 若電纜損毀或燃料運輸延誤中文造成更頻密的供電故障，只令進一步減慢生產銷率和減少生產量。

珠三角生產量降低和訂單減少，會嚴重影響區內整體出口收入。在2004年，珠三角經濟區的出口貨品總值達1,824.3億美元，佔全國出口縂額30.74%。140 若買家開始覺得珠三角的公司無法準時交貨－即使是外在因素影響－他們很可能會撤銷訂單，並把供應鏈業務搬離此區。這不僅嚴重打擊珠三角的製造業中心，對區內的港口和機場，以至香港的物流和服務業也會造成極大損害。

稅項和商業成本增加

氣候出現變化，預計會令商業成本增加。例如，公司服務受阻和延誤影響而要作出短期和臨時安排，將會增加航運及運輸成本。此外，企業可能要增建貨倉儲存貨品，或增購燃料以防運輸受阻。另外，公共設施的收費可能需要提高，尤其是食水，以市場價格控制浪費的情況。此外，氣溫上升和暴雨都會加重建築材料的負荷，可能會令建築物的維修成本增加。

另一方面，預計大珠三角部分實物資產的保險費用會成為很重的負擔，甚至無法受保。與業務受阻礙有關的保險也可能會變得極為昂貴，甚至難以受保。

因此即使中央政府願意提供經濟援助，省市政府的財政壓力將會增加，因而導致增加稅收，例如徵收與防洪工程有關的費用(1997年頒布的全國《防洪法》曾作考慮)，141 預計商界的負擔將會最為沉重。大珠三角的商戶要承受更沉重的稅項，將會增加他們的整體經營成本，對公司利潤、保留盈餘再作投資，以至擴充業務，都會有負面影響。矛盾的是，雖然每家公司和每名員工的稅務負擔都增加了，但政府的整體稅收可能不升反降。

外商直接投資減少

供應鏈訂單減少、營業額下降、經營成本上升，都會令股東的回報減少，因而減低投資者到區內投資的意欲。現時，外國資金在大珠三角的工業發展上扮演重要角色，珠三角經濟區2003年的實際利用外商直接投資金額有130.5億美元，佔全國外商直接投資逾24%。142 香港工業總會在2002年估計，珠三角經濟區内有53,000家工廠由香港商人投資，143 整個廣東則有80,000家港資工廠。144 它們不少將會從外商直接投資轉移到香港，在2003年達到136.3億美元。145 在2004年，有超過 3,600家外地公司在香港設立地區辦事處。146

若外商直接投資大幅減少，預期會嚴重阻礙整個地區維持工業發展步伐及經濟增長的能力。尤其是珠三角地區，不但資本投資可能會減少，就連在本地工業發展舉足輕重的外資科技轉移都可能會減少。

139 陸恭蕙：前引書，2006年，頁22。

140 同注130。

141 見《中華人民共和國防洪法》，第51章。又見Zhang與Wen：前引文，2001年，頁58。

142 Enright等人：前引書，2005年，頁44。

143 香港工業總會：《珠三角製造──香港製造業的蛻變》，2002年11月。http://www.industryhk.org/tc_chi/fp/fp_res/files/prdc.pdf

144 香港特區政府工商及科技局：檔編號2006ES/2，2006年9月，為行政長官準備的經濟高峰會（2006年9月11日）文件，第14段。

145 Enright等人：前引書，2005年，頁25。

146 同上書，頁68。氣候變化對香港及珠江三角洲的影響 87 中文

圖26 廣州資料來源: 珠江水利科學研究院(http://www.prwri.com.cn)

作爲全國最具經濟活力的地區，大珠三角一方面是中國其他地區資金的重要來源地，另一方面為國內龐大的勞動人口提供就業機會和照顧家庭的經濟開支。此外，大珠三角是國內資本貨品和原材料的重要市場。都市化過程加劇和城市人口增長增加了對建築材料和運輸設備等物品的需求。147 由於人均收入高企和消費力持續強勁增長，大珠三角同樣為國內生産的其他物品提供了一個龐大的銷售市場。在2004年，包括香港和澳門的大珠三角地區的零售總額高達810.4美元。148

大珠三角是通往中國的重要門戶。多年來，香港擔當著轉口港的角色，而每年在區內(尤其是廣州市)舉辦的商品交易會，一直為中國帶來創造商機。在2004年，廣州市舉辦了616個商品交易會，149 當中包括全國規模最大的中國出口商品交易會 (又稱廣交會)，累積成交額約佔全國全年出口的三分之一。150 我們因此有理由相信，大珠三角的經濟發展一旦明顯放緩，將會對全中國造成深遠的影響。

(5) 對各行業的影響

「氣候變化不單是一個關於環境的課題。它是一個商業課題。」151

氣候變化是一個商業課題。大珠三角的商界若要避免倒閉或利潤驟跌，又或避免錯失新的商業機會，就必須盡快面對和處理這個課題。我們應該把氣候變化風險管理看成整體策略規劃過程的一個部分，跟其他決策結合處理。152 對於企業管理層而言是新的挑戰，他們將要處理嶄新的政策範疇；長遠而言，把氣候變化影響當作商業計劃和投資決策的考慮因素，是至為關鍵的。

很多時候，大珠三角的有型資產和商業營運都是由控股公司或企業集團擁有，他們的業務遍及多個行業。因此，要分析相關風險和適當行動，將會是十分困難的；再者，要評估氣候變化對控股公司回報的影響，也是極具挑戰的。

147 同上書，頁7。

148 同上書，頁26。

149 同注107。

150 請瀏覽廣交會網址：http://www.cantonfair.net/cantonfair.htm

151 Rt Hon Margaret Beckett MP：“Climate Change Policy – What It Means for Investors”，speech at Institutional Investors Group on Climate Change 2003 Conference，倫敦，2003年11月26日。http://www.defra.gov.uk/corporate/ministers/speeches/mb031126.htm

152 Metcalf, Gerry與 Jenkinson, Kay：“A Changing Climate for Business” 2005年6月。http://www.ukcip.org.uk/resources/publications/documents/99.pdf 88 氣候變化對香港及珠江三角洲的影響

再缺乏控股公司資料和內部分析的前提下，本報告無法就氣候變化對個別在大珠三角經營或投資的公司的財政影響作出定量分析。然而，個別企業在大珠三角受氣候變化影響的程度，將取決於他們經營的行業，這是十分明顯的。我們可以在以中文下篇幅就相關因素作出定性評估。本文將會在以下章節概括地探討個別行業可能要面對的問題:

(a) 房地產

房地產業佔香港交易所市場資本值的重要部分。按照恆生地產分類指數的定義，房地產公司約佔恆生指數總值11%(2006年 9月數字)。153

圖27 香港維多利亞港資料來源: 香港規劃及基建展覽館(http://www.info.gov.hk/infrastructuregallery/etp.htm)

然而，由於香港很多上市公司都擁有不少房地產業務，因此上述數字大大低估了這個行業的重要性。這一點同時適用於深圳證券交易所的部分上市公司。因此，房地產業對區內經濟極為重要。房地產公司的財政表現或會受到以下的影響:

(i) 預計氣候變化會為樓宇建造帶來新考驗、154 成本增加和工程延誤等問題，繼而可能導致公司因延遲完工而被罰款: • 新的建築和工程標準(例如防止地陷、排水系統)可能會令成本增加 • 可能要使用更耐用的建築材料； • 強風會影響棚架和其他器材的安全性； • 地盤工作更困難，因而會使用更多預製組裝配件； • 地盤物料的運送出現延誤； • 容易受到極端天氣影響的材料／零件會出現供應緊張的情況； • 保險費用增加。

(ii) 預計建築物維修和設施管理的營運成本會增加: • 新制訂的建築和工程標準，可能會令維修成本增加； • 強風、暴雨、水災會影響建築材料的耐用性； • 氣溫上升可能會導致土地污染物變得活躍，從而侵襲地基； • 水質降低，需要新的處理技術支援，加上需求增加，和實行市場價格，全都令公共設施成本上升； • 公共設施的供應易受極端天氣影響，因而需要後備資源。

153 請瀏覽恒指服務有限公司網址：http://www.hsi.com.hk/

154 Metcalf與Jenkinson：前引書，2005年，頁18。氣候變化對香港及珠江三角洲的影響 89

(iii) 其他營運成本也可能會上升，例如: • 保險費用增加； • 稅款增加；中文 • 銷售及宣傳市場推廣成本增加。

(iv) 房地產價格可能會下降: • 水災和風暴會損毀現有建築物； • 天氣事故會令用家卻步。

(b) 供應鏈

珠三角的工業生產基礎十分強大，擁有成千上萬的製造業設施。珠三角地區東西兩岸各有不同的工業生産特色: 東岸集中生產電子和科技產品，香港更是亞洲重要的電子零件採購和分銷中心；西岸主要生產家用電器產品。一個大規模的供應鏈已在大珠三角形成: 貨品所有部分、零件、配件的採購都很方便，上游工業和下游工業環環相扣，因此訂單可以很快完成。155 上游和下游活動如此互相依存，是大珠三角製造業商戶容易受到氣候變化打擊的一大原因:

(i) 製造業設施的興建和維修工作所受到的影響，與房地產的情況相若。工業設施要面對的一個額外問題要: 若設施受到損毀而導致有害物質洩漏，公司可能要作出賠償。

(ii) 製造業設施可能要面對的營運問題包括:

• 氣溫上升，要增設溫度控制系統； • 公用設施成本增加，尤其是需要大量水電用作降溫用途； • 低下水質差，降低了高用水量工業(如造紙和製葯)製成品的質素； • 供電出現故障，會阻礙生産； • 若運輸出現問題，便會阻礙原料和零件的運送工作，因而擾亂生產工序； • 運輸出現問題也會擾亂製成品的運送工作，尤其是高價值和易腐壞的貨品； • 保險成本增加，尤其由於現時中國工業基建的保險金額大都嚴重偏低； • 稅款增加。

供應鏈公司一般都是薄利經營的，需要依靠低廉價格和快速運輸來爭取生意。面對運輸延誤和成本上升，不少公司感到無能為力。再者，若零件和製成品出現運送延誤的情況，公司很可能會失去訂單。這不但會令部分公司倒閉，對整個大珠三角來説情況極度悲觀。當國際買家質疑區內供應鏈的效率時，便會盡快在亞洲其他地區採購貨物和成立新的供應鏈，嚴重影響珠三角地區的經濟表現。

155 同注107。 90 氣候變化對香港及珠江三角洲的影響

圖28 大珠三角地區的碼頭和機場資料來源: MVA Hong Kong Limited

運輸、倉儲、郵務及電信行業，是珠三角經濟區的最大行業， 2003年的營業額達143.2億美元，佔區內服務業總營業額近 24%。在同一年，香港的運輸和倉儲業的營業額排行第五，達123.2億美元。156

香港是亞洲最主要的運輸和物流樞紐之一，亦是珠三角經濟區貨品出口的主要通道。香港國際機場是世界上最大的航空貨運中心，在2005年的貨運量高達340萬公噸，預計2020年的貨運量將會是現時的三倍。香港的海港在2005年處理2,242萬個二十呎標準箱(這是貨櫃的標準單位)，預期在2020年，貨運量會增至超過4,000萬個標準箱。157 珠三角經濟區的多個港口也在擴充，以處理日益增多的貨物。2004年的總貨運量經已達到1,700萬個標準箱。深圳是全球第四大貨櫃港口，也是一個物流中心，有超過2,000家物流公司，當中首32位的資產都高於1億元人民幣。158

如前所述，氣候變化會破壞大珠三角各項運輸基建，對運輸和物流公司的營運都會帶來重大衝擊:

(i) 運輸設施要實行各種調適工作，需要額外的資本支出: • 港口淤泥堵塞，需要加強挖掘工作； • 需要加建防洪設施，尤其在碼頭和沿岸機場跑道； • 需要升高道路和鐵路網，隧道及其他基建也要適當改建。

(ii) 運輸網遭受破壞毀和擾亂: • 公司可能會由於貨物延誤而要作出賠償； • 物流公司本來在送遞時間方面維持競爭力，現在可能會首影響；

156 Enright等人：前引書，2005年，頁67。

157 InvestHK：“Transportation and Logistics Hub. Hong Kong, Asia Pacific’s Transportation and Logistics Hub”，2006年4月。 http://www.investhk.gov.hk/pages/1/306.aspx

158 同注107。氣候變化對香港及珠江三角洲的影響 91

• 生意減少會損害公司盈利； • 若供應鏈搬離大珠三角，會嚴重損害業界前景； • 客運量也可能會減少。中文

(iii) 燃料、維修、稅項、保險等營運成本上升，會令價格上升，因而損害競爭力: • 物流和運輸業很易受到價格改變影響； • 區內多個機場(尤其澳門)正努力成為新廉價航空公司的服務樞紐；若成本、著陸費和稅款增加，將影響這個計劃。

(iv) 若貨運量、乘客量減少，便會令整個行業的核心收入下降，例如: • 機場營運商: 停泊和著陸費、機場管理費、機場使用費、零售商店的租金； • 港口營運商: 停泊費、管理費、相關資產的租金； • 地面運輸營運商: 道路費、橋樑費、隧道費、加油站收入、車資收入； • 航空公司: 機票費用、貨運費用； • 航運／物流公司: 貨物代理費、管理費、貨倉收費、交通工具包租費。

氣候變化對這個行業帶來的衝擊，將會影響一系列的商戶，包括機場營運商、港口營運商、航空公司、船務公司、貨車運輸公司、物流公司等等。公營和私營商戶都會大受影響，導致生意額下降。這個行業的增長，愈來愈依賴珠三角的製造業活動，預計這兩個行業的經濟表現將會息息相關。

(d) 金融服務

香港是亞洲一個主要金融服務中心，按市值計算是亞洲第二大股票市場，在2006年5月首次突破了10萬億港元(12,800億美元)。159 香港是中國企業在全球的最大集資中心，自1993年為中國企業在香港一共集資了超過1,250億美元。現時有133所持牌銀行，和超過200家基金管理公司以香港為基地。此外，香港有175間認可保險公司，整個行業在2004年的保費總額達 160億美元。160

相比之下，深圳的市場小得多，但已被視為國內繼上海之後最重要的金融中心。在2004年，有19所外資銀行在深圳設有分行，辦事處有74間。161 至2005年12月，深圳證券交易所有544家上市公司，市值達1,200億美元。162

金融服務界的股東和管理層，經常都認為他們的商業表現不會受到氣候變化影響。然而，這個行業聘用大量員工，擁有大批有形資產，並依賴國際通信網絡，這些全都會受氣候變化影響。此外，若金融服務業遭受幹擾而中斷，對經濟體系內所有行業都會有深遠影響。

(i) 很多可能會影響其他行業的因素，同樣會影響金融業的營運成本，例如建築費用增加、公用設施費用上升、保險費和稅款增加；此外，金融業的營運成本還會受到一些獨特因素影響: • 對營運極為重要的電信網絡和電腦系統，可能會受到風暴、水災或電力故障影響，因而需要準備大規模的後備設施。

(ii) 金融業務的風險將會增加: • 大珠三角商戶的投資者和貸款者需要考慮到，氣候變化可能會增加債務拖欠或回報減少的風險。

159 “Roundup: HK Stock Market Cap Reaches Record High of 10 Trillion HK Dollars”，《人民日報》，2006年5月4日。 http://english.people.com.cn/200605/04/eng20060504_262912.html

160 InvestHK, “Asia’s Retail Capital”, 2006年4月。http://www.investhk.gov.hk/pages/1/241.aspx

161 《中國金融年鑒》，2004年。

162 Grant Thornton：2006 Global New Markets Guide，2006年。http://www.gti.org/documents/GNMG%202006%2014th%20July.pdf 92 氣候變化對香港及珠江三角洲的影響

• 氣候變化引發的事故，可能會導致保險賠償額大幅增加，因而危害保險公司的財政表現。(保險公司同樣持有大量投資，表現同樣會受到氣候變化所引致的風險影響。) 中文

(iii) 若大珠三角普遍被視為風險日益增加的地方，金融服務行業的營業額便可能會減少: • 大珠三角商戶的證券組合投資或會下跌； • 大珠三角商戶的集資金額或會減少。

不無可能的是，金融公司所承受的打擊，可能會影響香港或深圳的整體市場。舉例說，若保險賠償、拖欠債務或生意虧蝕的情況嚴重，一些金融機構可能要被迫出售部分證券投資。假若這種情況大規模出現，金融市場便會貶值，對區內經濟可能會間接帶來重大影響。

V. 調適工作

政府間氣候變化專業委員員《第三次評估報告》的結論指出，氣候變化是一個事實。除了努力實行緩減廢氣排放的措施外，還需要調適策略的配合。緩減措施可被視為盡量減少不利環境出現的方法；而當不利環境經已出現時，調適措施便會把不利環境的衝擊減輕。163 調適策略的目的，是加強天然、人類及經濟體系在變化出現時的靭力和復原能力，並減低損害程度。這是一個用作處理未來氣候風險的框架，影響公共政策和私人企業的商業決策。

脆弱性「當氣候出現變化、波動或極端情況時，人類社會中個別自然系統無法處理負面影響的程度」

調適「天然或人類系統對實質或預期發生的氣候變化作出調節，包括緩減傷害或善用契機」

取材自Pittock164

(1) 調適策略的框架

一套有效的調適策略，必須把氣候引致的風險視作慣常決策的一個部分，讓政府、商界、個人都考慮到這些風險，正如他們作出其他風險評估和策劃其他事情一樣。165 為不同人士或機構發展適合他們需要的調適策略，可以使用的方法很多。一個思考調適策略的框架，大概會包括下列各點166:

• 確定區域、經濟、環境、人口各方面在面對氣候變化時的脆弱程度； • 確定可能引致的衝擊，並就重要程度、出現機率、危急程度等，把這些衝擊訂定緩急先後； • 進行監測工作，以評估預料中的氣候變化有否出現，以及出現的速度； • 計算不同調適策略的成本和效益，例如包括不作回應、搬遷疏散、增加基建設施、改變商業模式等等； • 對不同的調適策略和它們的後果作出敏感度分析； • 提高股東對氣候風險和調適策略的意識，與他們加強溝通； • 持續進行風險評估和策略檢討工作。

163 Easterling, William等人：Coping with global climate change: the role of adaptation in the United States，Pew全球氣候變化中心， 2004年6月。http://www.pewclimate.org/docUploads/Adaptation%2Epdf

164 Pittock, Barrie編：Climate Change: An Australian Guide to the Science and Potential Impacts，澳洲溫室氣體管理局，2003年。 http://www.greenhouse.gov.au/science/guide/pubs/science-guide.pdf

165 Allen Consulting Group：前引書，2005年，頁8。

166 澳洲溫室氣體管理局：“Impacts & Adaptation – Adaption Planning”，2006年。http://www.greenhouse.gov.au/impacts/adaptation.html 氣候變化對香港及珠江三角洲的影響 93

要做到實事求是地評估氣候風險和調適策略，就需要在多個領域進行大量研究。掌握更多區內氣候變化和潛在後果的資料是一項必需的基本條件。中文

建立氣候變化模型的技術，現時依然在研發當中。全球氣候模型或大氣環流模型在推斷區域氣候變化的發生時間、方向及規模等幾個方面，都出現了巨大分歧。基於這些分歧，決策者往往難以接受脆弱程度分析的結果，以及開展調適工作。167 要確立普遍公認的模型技術和基本假設，科學家仍需進行大量研究工作。

同樣地，要計算氣候變化衝擊的成本，是一樁複雜的工作。我們預期全球暖化極可能會令社會成本增加，新增成本將會由不同區域和行業共同分擔。要全面估量氣候變化在不同情景下對各個行業的成本影響，則仍需作更多研究。168

圖29 氣候變化決策的模式取材自: Willows等人169

(2) 大珠三角制訂調適策略的權責問題

氣候風險分析和調適策略，需要在大珠三角的政府和私人企業層面實行，政府的領導能力明顯是非常重要的。國家、省級，以至地方政府在實施公共基建、安全、衛生、土地規劃與監管等各方面的調適策略時，都肩負着重要的責任。

以中國的公共基建為例，它們大部分都是由中央或省級政府擁有的，他們因此要承擔設施損毀的責任。由私人擁有或管理的基建，政府也要承擔部分風險，原因是規管這些安排的合約通常都會要求政府機構負責與自然災害有關的財政責任。170 此外，在一些保險不普及或不被使用的領域，政府往往需要在天災過後負責重建工作。

重大的調適問題，實際上會涉及政府各項職責和各個層面。由於中國的官僚架構複雜，要協調不同機構就大珠三角的氣候變化問題進行有關工作，將會困難重重。

以監管水源這項工作為例，中央各個政府部門與地方部門之間的溝通，顯然並非簡單直接。雖然水利部在1988年獲授權監管水源，但水務工作卻支離破碎，水質監管、市區供水及其他相關工作是由多個部門共同負責。同時，縣、市機關都維護各自利益，不同地區和不同級別的政府機關時有出現利益衝突的情況。171

167 Erda, Lin等編：Climate Change Vulnerability and Adaptation in Asia and the Pacific，Proceedings of Workshop 15-19th January 1996 in Manila。 http://www.gcrio.org/CSP/WORKSHOP_01_1996.htmlhttp://www.gcrio.org/CSP/WORKSHOP_01_1996.html

168 澳洲溫室氣體管理局：“Impacts & Adaptation – Methods and Tools”，2006年。http://www.greenhouse.gov.au/ impacts/methods.html

169 Willows, R等人：Climate adaptation risk and uncertainty: draft decision framework，2000年。http://www.scotland.gov.uk/cru/ kd01/lightgreen/pascc-05.asp

170 Freeman與Warner：前引書，2004年，頁16。

171 Zhang與Wen：前引文，2001年，頁54。 94 氣候變化對香港及珠江三角洲的影響

同樣，監管中國沿岸地區的主要部門，是國家海洋局轄下的海域管理司。然而，國家海洋局並沒有權力協調所有受海平面上升影響的領域，包括農業、工業、漁業、旅遊、城市規劃、建築和港口等等。此外，國家海洋局由國土資源部管轄，這中文點或可顯示它的政治地位薄弱。再者，省級和地方層面有其他機關，各有不同的自主程度和關心的問題。172

假若珠三角仿效世界上多個地區和城市，成立一個專責機構，制訂應付氣候變化的策略，協調工作便可得到改善。例如英國便在1997年成立了一個名為英國氣候影響計劃署(UK Climate Impacts Programme, UKCIP)的工作小組，173 而倫敦亦設立了自己的機構 — 倫敦氣候變化合作夥伴組織(London Climate Change Partnership)。澳洲政府成立了國家氣候變化調適計劃署(National Climate Change Adaptation Programme)，目的是為容易受影響的工業和社區，製作與氣候變化有關的資料和工具。174 在亞洲，多個國家已經成立了跨部門工作小組，包括菲律賓的氣候變化跨部門委員會(Inter-Agency Commit- tee on Climate Change)，和印尼的國家氣候變化委員會(National Committee on Climate Change)。175

要調適氣候變化帶來的衝擊，制訂公共政策對大珠三角十分重要；但區內的企業也要分析他們各自的風險，以制訂自己的策略。有時候，採取行動的責任可以直接由商界和政府共同承擔；另一方面，責任亦可能是以間接的方式承擔，例如政府向私人機構徵收費用，以推動區內必需的調適措施。

(3) 調適策略觸及的幾個公共政策範疇

要制定公共政策調適氣候變化帶來的影響，工作將會極其艱巨。我們必需要獲得各種有形和環境變化的資料，以及改良預測各種經濟和社會衝擊的方法。我們必須有一群熱誠投入的決策者，樂於聽取和綜合分析不同持分者的意見，以確保用於一個領域的調適措施，不會在另一個領域產生不良影響。

首先，要加深瞭解氣候變化在大珠三角造成的影響速度和範圍，就必須設立一個精確的監測網絡，蒐集足夠數據，從而提供一個科學基礎，以制定合適政策。以海平面上升為例，潮汐漲退、地殼垂直活動、表土下陷、海水入侵、河床和河灣淤泥沉積、地面弱化和下陷等，我們都必須仔細監測。176 除了利用國內驗潮站和研究站進行觀測外，可能還要使用人造衛星或空中遙感系統。我們需要與全國或國際網絡在這些領域合作。

我們必須制定一套周全政策，應付海平面到2030年上升30釐米的幅度，以及面對海平面在之後數十年進一步大幅上升的可能性。若不盡快開始制定這套政策，大珠三角將會極易受到損害。要應付海平面上升，我們必須在短期內訂立多項措施，例如成立早期警報系統、興建防洪堤壩、搬遷建築物等。同時，耐用年期最長的基建，例如橋樑、隧道、堤壩等，壽命通常是50至100年；在制定發展計劃時，必須首先評估它們要面對的風險。177

當局必須同步制定上述多方面的政策，保障大珠三角經濟和社區的利益，以及遏止令現時令問題繼續惡化的各種活動。主要的政策範疇包括下列各項:

172 Lau, Maren：“Coastal zone management in the People’s Republic of China – a unique approach”，China Environment Series， 2003年，期6，頁120至123。

173 UK Climate Impacts Programme：“About UKCIP”。http://www.ukcip.org.uk/

174 澳洲溫室氣體管理局：“Impacts & Adaptation – National Climate Change Adaptation Programme”，2006年。http://www.greenhouse.gov.au/impacts/index.html

175 Erda, Lin等編：前引文，1996年。

176 Yang, H：前引文，1996年，頁274。

177 Wade, S. 等人：前引文，1999年，頁3。氣候變化對香港及珠江三角洲的影響 95

城市規劃

天氣變得更溫暖、更潮濕、更極端，會加重建築物和基建的負荷，因此必須在沿岸城市的設計、工程及建造上，制定和執中文行新的標準。排水系統的設計也需要做出修訂，以減低市區出現泛濫的風險。此外，我們可能需要強化和升高不少大型工程項目。

水源管理

如前所述，氣候變化很有可能影響水源的使用和質素，而且水的需求亦正急劇增加。政府必須嚴格規限地下水的開發，並改善水的處理和供應，例如可以增加水庫的儲存量，又或把水庫連接，讓水得以來回運送，這些措施都可令供水系統變得更健全。同時，防止濫用水源也是重要的，可以採取的措施包括在制定發展計劃時考慮供水需要，以及以市場價格供水，尤其是工業用水。178 此外。政府必須提高公眾意識，讓他們明白到珍惜用水的重要性。179

防洪系統

爲了應付更頻密的風暴和水災，政府必須優化洪水泛濫管理系統，包括提供可靠的天氣和潮汐預報、在容易受災地區設置警報儀器，和制定周全的緊急應變措施。現有的基建，例如水管和燃料氣體管道，或電力和電信電纜，都可能會受到損毀，因此制定應變計劃也是重要的。

海岸與河岸堤壩

大珠三角的堤壩、防波堤、堤岸等，組成了一個龐大網絡，但它們很多都是依照廣東省政府在1955年訂立的標準而興建的。180 現時必須根據海平面上升和風暴潮的最新預測，更新這些建築物的設計標準，並需要作成本效益分析，以決定改建工程的優先次序。要在整個大珠三角改善和強化防洪基建，必須在建築工程上投放大量資金。

長遠土地規劃

如前所述，大珠三角的都市發展都集中在低窪地區，現時已經常出現泛濫情況。另一方面，很多農業用地以至工業和製造業設施都位於珠江三角洲的泛濫平原上。較早前，颶風卡特里娜侵襲新奧爾良的事件顯示，即使是最大規模的防洪設施，保護能力依然有限。

要實行任何大規模的政策，都需要強大的財政資源。決策者面對的一大考驗是，在籌集資金應付氣候變化時，決定權責的分配。中央政府投資在水務上的開支(包括防洪工作)，只佔資金投資總額2至3%。181 若省級和地方政府認為個別領域對國內生產總值不會造成直接打擊時，他們便似乎不願意多作投資。預期政府會透過加稅或收取防洪費，讓大珠三角的私營公司承擔部分財政開支。

178 Erda, Lin等編：前引文，1996年。

179 Wade, S. 等人：前引文，1999年，頁81。

180 Huang等人：前引文，2004年，頁261。

181 Zhang與Wen：前引文，2001年，頁57。 96 氣候變化對香港及珠江三角洲的影響

VI. 結論與初步建議中文現在已有確鑿科學證據證實，地球的氣候正在變化，而這些變化並非由地球本身的天然週期所造成。182 然而，「由於氣候變化對政治和工業都會帶來深遠影響，而且它是由人類文明賴以成功的核心活動所引致，我們因此難以客觀公正地作出評估」。183

本報告概括地指出氣候變化可能會在多個方面對大珠三角的地貌和經濟造成影響。我們建議進行更多更深的研究和建立電腦模型，讓政府機關、商界和一般市民都可以更加瞭解氣候變化對本地區帶來的衝擊，包括對生態造成的影響。此外，我們亦應進一步發展經濟估值方法，從而可以更準確地評估氣候影響的實際成本。

這份報告雖然只提供了一個初步評估，但我們已可明顯看到氣候變化的影響是非常廣泛的，因此大珠三角所作出的回應也必須反映這個特點。香港、澳門及廣東的決策者必須同時考慮緩減和調適措施。危機評估方法和成本效益分析可以用作比較不同的緩減和調適策略，而進一步的情景分析和敏感度分析，則可評估可能出現的效果。

另一個清楚的訊息是，我們立刻採取行動減少溫室氣體排放以避免氣候變化的最壞影響所需要花的費用，將遠低於破壞造成後我們所付出的代價。這一點在《斯特恩回顧》中亦有提及。戈達德研究所新近發出警告指出，地球上主要冰帽的融解速度可能比以前預測的快得多，這正好說明了問題的迫切性。世界各國的決策者、商界領袖和市民都必須在未來十年內採取果斷行動，減少全球溫室氣體的排放量，避免地球出現災難性的變化。針對珠三角地區，我們需要進行更多區域性的研究，尋求最佳的方法大幅減少廢氣排放。例如，要減少排放溫室氣體及其他污染物，最便宜和最快捷的方法是提高能源效益，但區內的商家和政府似乎並未充分體會這項措施的好處。

正如《斯特恩回顧》指出，「雖然我們已經不可能防止在未來二、三十年將發生的氣候變化，但是仍然可以在一定程度上減少它對社會和經濟的影響」。184 作爲調適措施的第一步，當局急需檢討大珠三角多項基建計劃，包括土地開發、貨櫃碼頭的興建、橋樑、道路、隧道，以及與運輸有關的工程等，並研究當風暴、洪水、海平面上升出現更頻和變得更嚴重時，這些基建會將受承受的衝擊。迄今為止，有關討論都集中在如何加快工程進度，而並非就氣候影響作出檢討。185

最後，大珠三角的政府和商界在計劃所有長遠政策、基建工程、投資策略時，都必須開始考慮氣候變化所帶來的風險。世界各地的政府都明白到，在面對氣候變化的威脅時，他們必須積極主動，不能消極被動。同樣，要有效保障大珠三角及當地居民，唯一方法是從今天起制定應變計劃。

182 Connell與 Richenda等編：Climate adaptation: risk, uncertainty and decision-making，2003年。http://www.ukcip.org.uk/resources/publications/documents/4.pdf

183 Flannery, Tim：The Weather Makers: the history and future impact of climate change，2006年。

184 斯特恩對氣候變化的討論。”What is the economics of climate change?” 討論文章，2006年1月31日。

185 行政長官在2006年9月10日主辦的經濟高峰會雖然集中討論港口和運輸基建的發展，但所有討論文章都沒有提及氣候變化的影響。見 http://www.info.gov.hk/info/econ_summit/chi/papers.html

The IMPACTS of CLIMATE CHANGE in HONG KONG and the PEARL RIVER DELTA 氣候變化對香港及 珠江三角洲的影響

The IMPACTS of CLIMATE CHANGE in HONG KONG and the PEARL RIVER DELTA 氣候變化對香港及珠江三角洲的影響