Catastrophe Bond Update: Fourth Quarter 2014 ISSUANCE REACHES INDUSTRY FULL YEAR RECORD
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Catastrophe Bond Update: Fourth Quarter 2014 ISSUANCE REACHES INDUSTRY FULL YEAR RECORD After one of the slowest third quarters to date for 144A property and casualty (P&C) catastrophe bond issuance, the fourth quarter saw a flurry of activity that resulted in full year 144A P&C cat bond issuance exceeding USD8 billion — an industry record. Total risk capital outstanding as of December 31, 2014 equaled USD22.868 billion, the highest level of outstanding risk capital the market has ever supported. F-1 F-| 1144A | 1 44AP&C P&C CATASTROPHE CATASTROPHE BOND BOND RISK RISK CAPITAL CAPITAL ISSUED AND AND OUTSTANDING OUTSTANDING – 19 –97 19 TO97 YETO 20 YE14 2014 25,000 25,000 22,86722,.8 867.8 20,000 20,000 18,57618.9,576 .9 14,839.3 15 ,000 14,839.3 15 ,000 13,416.4 13,416.4 12,508.2 12,508.2 12,342.8 12,538.6 12,195.7 12,538.6 12,342.8 10,000 12,195.7 10,000 7,677.0 8,026.7 7,187.0 7,083.0 8,026.7 Risk Capital Amount (USD Millions) 7,677.0 5,085.0 7,187.0 5,855.3 7,083.0 Risk Capital Amount (USD Millions) 4,289.0 4,614.7 4,599.9 5,000 4,107.1 5,855.3 5,085.0 3,396.0 4,289.0 4,614.7 3,009.9 4,599.9 5,000 1,988.2 4,107.1 1,499.0 3,396.0 948.2 874.2 1,052.5 1,142.0 966.9 989.5 1,142.8 3,009.9 1,988.2 0 1,499.0 948.2 874.2 1,052.5 1,142.0 966.9 989.5 1,142.8 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 0 YTD 1997 19Risk98 Capital1999 Issued2000 2001 Risk2002 Capital2003 Outstanding2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Sour20ce:12 Guy Carpente2013 r2014 YTD Risk Capital Issued Risk Capital Outstanding Source: Guy Carpenter Persistent year-on-year growth in issuance and risk capital outstanding indicates that the market is showing signs of maturity and stabilization. Seven new sponsors entered the 144A P&C cat bond market in 2014, issuing ten new tranches of notes. Of the seven, five were insurers, one was a reinsurer and the other a residual markets insurer. T-1 | 2014 NEW MARKET ENTRANTS Deal Sponsor Sponsor Type USD Notional Covered Perils (Millions) Gator Re Ltd. 2014-1 American Strategic Insurance Group Insurer 200.00 U.S. Named Storm and Severe Thunderstorm U.S. & Canada Named Storm, Earthquake, Riverfront Re Ltd. 2014-1 Great American Insurer 95.00 Severe Thunderstorm and Winterstorm Citrus Re 2014-1 Heritage Insurer 150.00 Florida Named Storm Citrus Re 2014-2 Heritage Insurer 50.00 Florida Named Storm Lion I Re Limited Generali European Insurer 262.20 Europe Windstorm Kilimanjaro Re 2014-1 Class A Everest Re Reinsurer 250.00 U.S. Named Storm Kilimanjaro Re 2014-1 Class B Everest Re Reinsurer 200.00 U.S. Named Storm and Earthquake Kilimanjaro Re 2014-2 Everest Re Reinsurer 500.00 U.S. & Canada Eartquake Aozora Re Series 2014-1 Sompo Japan Nipponkoa Japanese Insurer 99.50 Japan Typhoon Alamo Re Ltd. Series 2014-2 TWIA Residual Market Insurer 400.00 Texas Named Storm Source: Guy Carpenter While no first time sponsors issued bonds in the fourth quarter, six repeat issuers placed USD2.075 billion with capital markets investors in 144A cat bond format. The re-entry of sponsors across a range of underlying businesses further indicates that sponsors continued to recognize the value of insurance-linked securities (ILS) as an appropriate risk transfer mechanism. We expect repeat and new sponsors to continue to utilize the ILS market in 2015, as they seek to complement their traditional coverage with proven, efficient and bespoke features that can be sourced via cat bond protection. 1 The attraction to non-correlative property catastrophe risk resulted in third party capital continuing to be deployed into the ILS sector. Sponsors took advantage of strong investor demand as more than 70 percent of deals coming to market in 2014 settled at greater notional value than initially expected. In the fourth quarter alone, of the six new deals that came to market, four closed at higher notional limits (44 percent higher on average). The continued influx of third party capital from new and existing market participants also favorably impacted ILS pricing for protection buyers. The continued low interest rate environment encouraged institutional investors (such as pension funds and hedge funds) to seek the higher yields offered by natural cat risk notes. As a result, sponsors took advantage of the opportunity to lock in attractive rate on line and essentially, hedge rate volatility. Throughout the first quarter of 2014 final pricing of cat bonds was, on average, 10 percent lower from the midpoint of initial indicative spread pricing guidance, the likely result of sponsors’ conservative pricing in the first half of the year. As declining rates persisted, the differential of cat bond spreads from initial price guidance to final pricing narrowed, reflecting sponsors’ increasing aggressiveness toward pricing expectations. In the fourth quarter, the differential of cat bond spreads from initial price guidance to final pricing normalized as many issuances settled at the midpoint of initial expectations. F-2F- | 202 |1 1-22010141-2 014144A 144A CAT CAT BOND BOND PRICING PRICING (MULTIPLE (MULTIPLE VS. VS. EXPECTED EXPECTED LOSS) LOSS) 12.0x 12.0x Kizuna II -K Aizuna II - A (3/14) (3/14) 10.0x 10.0x Golden GateGolden Re Gate II Re II (9/14) (9/14) 8.0x Armor Re 8.0x Armor Re (5/14) (5/14) Citrus Re CitrusSeries Re 2014 -2 Res Re 2014 - Series 2014(5 -2/14) Tradewynd Res Re 2014Class - 13 Nakama (5/14) Tradewyn2014d-13A Class 13 (5/14) Nakama2014 -21 2014-13A(12/14) 6.0x (5/14) 2014 -21(12/14) (12/14) 6.0x (12/14) Citrus Re Sanders Re Citrus2 Re014 -1 Res Re Class B (4/14) Res2 Re014 -2 Sanders Re 2014 -1 (12/14) Merna V Class B (5/14) (4/14) 2014 -2 Tradewynd Merna V (3/14) (12/14) Tr2014adewyn -1 1Bd & 3B (5/14) Sanders Re (12/14) (3/14) 2014-2 2014 -1 1B & 3B Kizuna II - B Sanders Re (12/14) 2014-2 (5/14) Riverfront Re (3/14) (3/14) Gator Re 4.0xKizuna II - B (5/14) Riverfront Re (3/14) (3/14) Aozora Re (3/14) Gator Re 4.0x (5/14) (3/14) Aozora Re (5/14) Nakama Re Sanders Re Everglades 2014 Nakama 2014 -1 Class C (5/14) NakamaClass Re A & Class B Sanders Re Everglades 2014 2014 -22 (5/14) Kilimanjaro (5/14) Nakama (12/14)2014 -1 (5/14) Class C 2014 -22 Class A & Class B (5/14) Class B 2.0x (5/14) Lion I Re Kilimanjar(4/1o4) (12/14) (4/14) Class B Multiple (Spread over Reference Rate/Expected Loss) Kilimanjaro 2.0x East Lane VILion I Re Sanders Re (4/14) Class A Ursa Re Queen Street IX (3/14) (4/14) Class D (4/14) Class B (2/14) Alamo Re Multiple (Spread over Reference Rate/Expected Loss) Kilimanjaro Kilimanjaro East Lane VI Ursa Re Sanders Re(5/14) Ursa(12/ Re14) Queen Street IX (6/14) Class C Class A Class B Alamo Re (3/14) Class A Class D (11/14) (4/14) (2/14) (12/14) Kilimanjaro (12/14) (6/14) Ursa Re (5/14) Class C Class A (11/14) 0.0x (12/14) 0.0x 0.2% 0.7% 1.2% 1.7% 2.2% 2.7% 3.2% 3.7% 0.2% 0.7% 1.2% 1.7% 2.2% 2.7% 3.2% 3.7% Expected Loss Expected Loss 2014 Issuances 2014 Initial Issuance 2013 Initial Issuance Source: Guy Carpenter 2014 Issuances2012 Initial Issuance 20142 011Initial Initial Issuance Issuance 2013Dec Initial 31st SecondaryIssuance Source: Guy Carpenter 2012 Initial Issuance 2011 Initial Issuance Dec 31st Secondary The soft rate environment, combined with the presence of “accommodating” investors, allowed cedents to place more innovative, flexible and bespoke transactions. By the end of the fourth quarter several key structural features emerged and became more prevalent as the terms and conditions of cat bonds and traditional reinsurance continued to converge. 2 INDEMNITY TRIGGER Eighty-one percent of the P&C risk capital (based only on 144A cat bond transactions) was structured with an indemnity trigger on either a per-occurrence, annual aggregate or multi-year aggregate basis. The use of indemnity triggers increased steadily from a low of 30 percent in 2011 to 55 percent in 2013. F-3 | TRIGGER TYPE 2010-2014 F-3 | TRIGGER TYPE 2010-2014 3 6 2 5 2 13 9 3 11 2 2 3 9 6 11 125 1 14 20 30 5 14 10 36 30 5 12 10 36 20 11 8 11 8 10 10 5252 55 11 55 11 17 1919 17 5 5 28 81 81 32 32 28 2200110022001100 2200220111011111 2010122010122 2 2200113322001133 22001144 22001144 IndemnityIndemnity (%) (%) PCSPCS Index Index (%) (%) ParametricParametric (%) PERILSPERILS index index (%) (%) VariousVarious (%) (%) ModeledModeled Loss (%) Loss (%)Hybrid (%)Hybrid (%) Source: Guy Carpenter Source: Guy Carpenter As cat bond structures become more aligned with traditional (re)insurance contracts, the indemnity trigger has become a viable option particularly as investors become increasingly sophisticated and sponsors more transparent. BOND TENOR Eighty-nine percent of P&C risk capital (based only on 144A cat bond transactions) had a bond tenor of either three or four years in 2014, a decrease from 93 percent in 2013.