Vuelio Election Briefing 8th May 2017

Contents Briefing Summary...... 2 Social Media Analysis ...... 5 Online reaction ...... 5 Journalist Tweets ...... 8 Policy Announcements ...... 9 Conservative (manifesto due 08/05/2017) ...... 9 Labour (manifesto due 15/05/2017) ...... 9 Lib Dem (manifesto within a fortnight of 04/05/2017) ...... 10 Green ...... 10 UKIP ...... 10 Stakeholder manifestos...... 11

1

Briefing Summary

Welcome to Vuelio’s weekly update on the general election campaign. Using the full Vuelio monitoring suite – from across political, online and social media - we’ve compiled all the news, policy announcements, stakeholder reaction and social media analysis.

Last week saw the dissolution of parliament, and campaigning began in earnest.

Here’s a quick summary of what happened last week:

 The Conservatives made gains in local elections, while UKIP was left with only one councillor  Theresa May gave a disastrous performance on Marr, only to be overshadowed by Diane Abbott on LBC  Both Labour and the Lib-Dems made tax policy announcements, while the Conservatives made their first manifesto promise, relating to mental health  The Conservatives sit at 47% based on the most recent polls  On social media, Labour’s pledge to increase police numbers has had the biggest impact – although this is most likely in response to Diane Abbot’s LBC performance  The British Chambers of Commerce, British Medical Association and Institute for Government have all released their own manifestos Last week’s activity

Purdah

Since 22nd April, the government has been in ‘purdah’. This stops it from making new announcements and prevents civil servants from working to support minsters in their campaigns, ensuring that they remain politically impartial. In addition, the civil service has to be open for discussions with all of the main political parties. During the ‘wash-up’ period before the dissolution of parliament, bills currently in progress were either accelerated to approval (e.g. the Higher Education & Research Bill) or abandoned (e.g. the Vehicle Technology & Aviation Bill).

Local elections

On Friday the results of the local elections were declared. The Tories did very well, gaining 563 seats, whilst UKIP lost all the seats they were defending – and only gained one. Labour also lost a significant number of seats, with voters moving over to the Conservatives. Meanwhile, the results for the Lib Dems were patchy, with the massive growth in the Conservative vote causing them to lose seats even as their share of the vote increased. In Wales, Plaid Cymru will also be pleased, having made a number of gains, whilst in Scotland the SNP lost a small number of councillors. Going into the general election, this suggest that only the Conservatives can be confident of a good result.

Elections for the newly-introduced Metro Mayors saw a pair of notable Conservative victories. In the West Midlands election, former John Lewis boss Andy Street vanquished former Labour MP Sion Simon, whilst in the Tees Valley contest Conservative Ben Houchen saw off Labour’s Sue Jeffrey. Other contests saw Conservative victories in the West of England and Cambridgeshire and

2

Peterborough, whilst Labour MPs Andy Burnham and Steve Rotheram were elected for Greater Manchester and the Liverpool City Region, respectively.

Campaigning begins

Theresa May kicked off her campaign by causing controversy on a visit to Cornwall, when journalists found themselves shut in a room to keep them away from her. Then, on Wednesday evening she accused the EU of interfering in the election to try and change the result. This hasn’t affected her position in the polls, and her offer of ‘strong and stable’ leadership seems set to give her an increased majority in June. The Conservatives finally announced a manifesto promise over the weekend, as they committed to improving mental health provision.

Labour have not had a good week, despite trying to set the agenda with measures to improve public services. Diane Abbott, the Shadow Home Secretary, mangled an appearance on LBC on Tuesday, at one point suggesting that the 10,000 new police officers Labour wish to recruit would be paid just £30 each a year! Over at the Lib Dems, got caught up in an argument with an angry leave voter in Oxford West and Abingdon, one of their target constituencies. Both parties made tax announcements over the weekend, with Labour committing not to increase taxes on those earning under £80,000 and the Lib Dems proposing a penny in the pound increase in income tax to fund NHS and social care.

Sunday political round-up

This week a number of big names from the political parties did the rounds of the TV studios.

John McDonnell, Labour’s Shadow Chancellor, made an appearance on the Andrew Marr Show to announce Labour’s new pledge not to increase taxes for those earning under £80,000. He refused to repeat his previous claim to be a Marxist, but declared that there was ‘a lot to learn’ from Das Kapital. He also refused to repeat a previous commitment that he and Jeremy Corbyn would quit if they lost the general election, and could not give details of tax changes for those earning over £80,000. He was joined on the programme by Jeremy Hunt, the Health Secretary. He accepted that it was ‘not acceptable’ that the NHS had been missing targets and disagreed with claims that nurses’ pay had fallen by 11% in real terms. He also admitted that a ‘bad Brexit outcome’ would be a disaster for the NHS.

Jeremy Hunt also made an appearance on Peston on Sunday, where he discussed the Conservatives’ proposals to improve mental healthcare, including reforms to mental health legislation, tackling discrimination and providing additional staff. Appearing for Labour was Emily Thornberry, who admitted that she didn’t know how much money Labour’s tax changes would raise. She criticised the ‘presidential’ approach the Conservatives were taking to the election, suggesting that politics should not be about ‘Theresa May’s hair’. Also being interviewed was former UKIP leader, Nigel Farage. Asked whether the local election results showed that his party would not survive the general election, he suggested that UKIP was needed to stop Theresa May from ‘backsliding’ on Brexit, and that this was a question to be asked after the Brexit deal had been concluded.

3

What the polls say…

Over the last week, the parties have polled as follows (changes from the general election in brackets, data taken from Britain Elects):

Conservatives: 47% (+8%)

Labour: 29% (-2%)

Lib Dem: 10% (+2%)

UKIP: 7% (-6%)

Green: 3% (-1%)

Polling average: week to 08/05/2017

Green

UKIP

Lib Dem

Labour

Conservatives

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50

Conservatives Labour Lib Dem UKIP Green

4

Social Media Analysis

Online reaction We’ve been monitoring the online reaction to some of last week’s key events using Vuelio monitoring tools. Results show the total number of mentions from across social media and online news.

Engagement with the general election reached new heights on Thursday, probably as a result of the local elections.

Whilst mentions of both May and Corbyn followed similar trends to the general election as a whole, mentions of Tim Farron peaked on Wednesday after an encounter with an angry Leave voter in Oxfordshire.

5

Both Labour and the Conservatives will be pleased that two of their announcements caught significant media attention last week.

Labour prides itself as being the party of the NHS, and so it was unsurprising that its proposals to suspend cuts to the service caused a spike in mentions of Labour and the NHS to 3.3 million on Wednesday.

Similarly, the Tories will be pleased that their attack on Labour’s ‘tax bombshell’ resonated on social media, being mentioned by name 1.6million times.

6

However, the policy announcement which got the most traction on social media was Labour’s commitment to increase the number of police officers. On the day of the announcement, we found some 17million mentions. As the reason this announcement got so much attention was Diane Abbott’s inability to remember how much it would cost, one point implying that each officer would cost £30 a year, Labour might well be wishing that it hadn’t had so much attention.

7

Journalist Tweets

Last week’s top journalist tweets

8

Policy Announcements

Conservative (manifesto due 08/05/2017)

 Conservatives accuse Labour of a ‘tax bombshell’ and guarantee no VAT increase - BBC

o Theresa May has failed to commit to the ‘tax lock guarantee’ from the 2015 manifesto, but has said that she will not seek to increase VAT. o Labour has also promised not to increase VAT but has committed to reversing CGT and inheritance tax cuts, and increasing corporation tax, whilst promising lox taxes for low and medium earners. It accused the Conservatives of misrepresenting their plans. Labour (manifesto due 15/05/2017)

 10,000 new police officers - BBC

o This will partially reverse cuts in police numbers since 2009 which have seen the number of officers drop by 20,000. This will be funded by reversing planned cuts to CGT. This increase will give an extra office for every electoral ward in the country. o The Lib Dems and the Conservatives accused Labour of having spent this money several times over. o The Police Federation placed this in the context of a recently-reported rise in crime by 9% but cautioned that a simple increase in officers would not deal with the real challenges faced by the police force, including problems at other agencies and improving staff retention.

 An end to hospital cuts - BBC

o The sustainability and transformation plans (STPs) will be suspended as they risk putting money before patients. All STPs will be reviewed by a new body: NHS Excellence, which will involve patients and local communities in the process. o The Lib Dems echoed the criticism of the STP process, with Norman Lamb suggesting that the main problem with the NHS was underfunding. Jeremy Hunt, for the Conservatives, insisted that STPs would improve patient care. o Reforming STPs forms part of the BMA’s general election manifesto ‘A vote for health’. The BMA wants to see them become more than just a vehicle for cuts. The GMB welcomed Labour’s plans, whilst the NHS Confederation said that whilst it supported the principles behind STPs, more funding (£2bn a year) was needed.

9

o Nick Triggle, the BBC’s health correspondent, suggests that to achieve efficiencies in the NHS, services do need to be transferred out of hospitals to the community and that Labour needs to set out either how it will cut costs or increase funding.

Lib Dem (manifesto within a fortnight of 04/05/2017)

 A soft Brexit and a referendum on the terms of the vote - BBC

o outlined two manifesto commitments: () to secure terms in negotiations which preserve as many benefits of EU membership as possible; (ii) a referendum on the terms of the deal, in which the Lib Dems will campaign to remain in the EU. o The Conservatives claimed that every vote for Theresa May would give her a stronger hand when negotiating Brexit. Green

 A ratification referendum on Brexit - BBC

o The Green Party confirmed that it will be offering a referendum on the deal with the EU, offering voters a choice of accepting the government’s deal, or remaining a member of the EU. UKIP

 Cuts to foreign aid spending and the licence fee - Sky

o UKIP have pledged to cut foreign aid spending from 0.7% of GDP to 0.2%. This would reduce spending from £14bn to £4bn. The TV licence fee would be abolished, with funding replaced by a mixture of subscriptions, advertising, and a public service broadcasting fund.

10

Stakeholder manifestos

 British Chambers of Commerce manifesto

o Five priorities: (i) a globally-competitive business environment; (ii) local growth; (iii) improve physical and digital infrastructure; (iv) support exports for economic growth; (v) work with businesses to secure the best possible Brexit deal, including protecting EU nationals’ status, deliver regulatory stability, and ensure that there isn’t a hard border in Ireland.

 Institute for Government: five key manifesto promises

o The Institute for Government has called for parties to make five clear pledges in their manifesto: (i) set priorities rather than treating manifestos as a shopping list; (ii) give more detail on Brexit, including a ‘no deal’ scenario, the involvement of Parliament and the devolved administrations, and post-Brexit policies; (iii) establish credulity on public services by committing to independent scrutiny; (iv) reform tax policy, including more open and honest debate; (v) make sense of infrastructure, including plans for HS2 and Heathrow, and commit to the National Infrastructure Commission.

 BMA manifesto

o The British Medical Association have also outlined their wishes from the new government. Arguing that the NHS is at ‘breaking point’, they have issued five ‘asks’, (i) increasing health funding to the average proportion of GDP spent in the EU; (ii) address pressures across the system that endanger patients; (iii) ensure the health service is a priority during Brexit; (iv) stabilise general practice; (v) take action to improve the population’s health by reversing public health cuts.

11