Rapport d’activité du « research networking programme in the social sciences » : From Identity to Interest ? Quantitative and Qualitative Explaining Electoral Change in Rural and Urban India (EECURI), financé par l’ANR, l’ESRC et l’ICSSR et associant Ambedkar University (Lucknow), le CSDS (Delhi), Janagraaha (Bangalore), King’s College (Londres), la LSE (Londres), Nehru University (New Delhi) et Sciences Po (Paris).
Sommaire : 1/ Objectifs 2/ Résultats obtenus à ce jour 3/ Prolongements en cours Annexe 1 : Réunions organisées dans le cadre d’EECURI Annexe 2 : Publications réalisées dans le cadre d’EECURI
1/ Objectifs
Ce réseau, connu sous le nom d’ « EECURI » (Explaining Electoral Change in Urban and Rural India), a associé une quarantaine de chercheurs, d’enseignants et d’étudiants (surtout des doctorants) pendant quatre ans, de septembre 2012 à septembre 2016.
Il avait pour objectif de faire collaborer des académiques des institutions citées ci-dessus sur les pratiques électorales indiennes en milieu rural et urbain à partir de méthodes à la fois quantitatives et qualitatives.
Cet objectif a été atteint grâce à trois types d’échanges. Premièrement des ateliers méthodologiques ont permis d’explorer la complémentarité des institutions représentées en termes de recherches qualitatives et quantitatives. Deuxièmement, des conférences ouvertes ont permis de confronter les interprétations des élections nationales, régionales et locales qui se sont tenues au cours des quatre années qu’a duré le réseau. Troisièmement, des séjours de recherche prolongés ont permis à de jeunes chercheurs indiens (doctorants et post doctorants) de s’intégrer à des équipes de recherche européennes.
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Quel que soit le type d’échange, la notion d’élection a été considérée par les acteurs du réseau d’un point de vue extensif. Lors des deux types de réunion mentionnés ci-dessus, dont la liste figure en annexe, ont en effet été étudiés les campagnes électorales (sous l’angle, notamment, des moyens de communication utilisés), les relations entre candidats et citoyens (du point de vue, notamment, de la résilience des pratiques clientélistes), les résultats électoraux (reflétant tant la montée en puissance des nationalistes hindous que la résistance des partis régionaux et l’effondrement du Congrès) et la sociologie des élus (tant au parlement central que dans les Etats fédérés).
2/ Résultats obtenus à ce jour
Ces échanges ont débouché sur trois types de résultats concrets :
1/ les échanges méthodologiques ont permis des transferts de compétence dont les doctorants ont été les premiers bénéficiaires, surtout lorsqu’ils ont pu effectuer, en outre, des stages au sein des institutions partenaires. Ce fut le cas de S. Balu et de Prachi Sinha deux doctorants indiens, respectivement basés à JNU et à Janaagraha qui ont effectué des stages à la LSE pour le premier et à King’s College pour la seconde. 2/ des publications conjointes ont associés les acteurs de ce réseau. C’est ainsi que deux numéros spéciaux de revues prestigieuses, Contemporary South Asia (Taylor and Francis) et Studies in Indian Politics (Sage) ont été coordonnés et entièrement rédigés par des membres du réseau à la suite de conférences d’EECURI (voir la liste des articles publiés grâce à EECURI en annexe 2). 3/ une base de données décrivant le profil des élus de plusieurs Etats indiens a été commencée grâce à l’expertise complémentaire des membres du réseau, notamment en termes de capacité à mener des enquêtes de terrain d’un côté et à traiter des données à partir de logiciels sophistiqués (y compris de cartographie) de l’autre. Cette base de données porte sur les élus indiens depuis les élections de 1951-52 (les premières de l’Inde indépendante) jusqu’à nos jours, soit environ 70,000 entrées. Cette base permet une analyse fine du profil sociologique des élus indiens et de son évolution du point de vue des variables classiques (genre, âge, profession, niveau d’études, patrimoine, etc.), mais aussi du point de vue de la caste, de la tribu et de la religion (dont l’identification nécessite souvent un travail de terrain). Elle permet aussi d’étudier le phénomène dynastique,
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certaines circonscriptions étant dominées par les mêmes familles sur plusieurs générations. Cette base est aujourd’hui achevée à 50%. Le travail qui reste à accomplir sera achevé dans le cadre d’un LIA (voir plus bas la section «Prolongements en cours »).
Les principaux résultats auxquels le réseau est parvenu ont été portés à la connaissance scientifique générale grâce aux nombreuses publications mentionnées plus haut et listées en annexe 2. Ils peuvent toutefois être regroupés en trois catégories.
1/ l’urbanisation rapide de l’Inde ne se traduit pas nécessairement par une mutation des pratiques électorales. Les campagnes répondent aux mêmes logiques, même si le clientélisme prend des formes plus anonymes en milieu urbain. Les électeurs des villes et des villages tendent à adopter des attitudes convergentes (y compris en termes de participation, alors que l’abstentionnisme était une spécialité des citadins). Les nationalistes hindous sont plus populaires dans les villes tandis que le Congrès résiste mieux dans les campagnes, mais la différence est là de degré plus que de nature. La sociologie des élus évolue dans le même sens, qu’ils représentent des circonscriptions urbaines ou rurales.
2/ la question que posait le titre du projet « From Identity to Interest ? » a reçu une réponse qui transcende le clivage urbain/rural. D’un côté, le poids des communautarisme continue de peser sur l’acte de vote : la minorité musulmane et les castes intouchables (les plus basses) continuent de soutenir en bloc les formations qui leur paraissent le mieux à même de les protéger vis-à- vis, notamment, des nationalistes hindous. D’un autre côté, les électeurs portent aussi leurs suffrages sur les partis qui font la preuve de leur capacité à gouverner et à défendre leurs intérêts en tant que classe. L’une des découvertes du réseau tient ici à l’érosion des logiques de caste – au profit de celles de la classe – au sein des grandes castes dominantes qui connaissent une différenciation socio-économique de plus en plus marquée du fait de la croissance économique.
3/ en termes méthodologiques, la complémentarité des approches ethnographiques et « survey- based » est ressortie des travaux du groupe de manière éclatante. Les spécialistes de l’enquête de terrain ont appris des quantitativistes à orienter le regard vers les grandes questions et les agrégats (comme les catégories de circonscriptions classes en « rurales », « semi-urbaines » et « urbaines ») qui faisaient du sens au niveau macro. D’un autre côté, les professionnels du sondage ont écouté les ethnographes leur parler des bonnes questions à poser et ont appris à se méfier des données officielles (le taux d’urbanisation est ainsi calculé de façon parfois
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arbitraire). De la même façon, coder la caste, la classe et même la profession des élus dont la biographie a été compilée dans la base de données mentionnée plus haut n’a été possible que grâce à la connaissance intime de la société indienne et de ses variantes régionales à la disposition des anthropologues du politique qui formaient le groupe.
3/ Prolongements en cours
Pour conclure, quelques perspectives d’avenir méritent d’être soulignées car à la suite des quatre années au cours desquelles s’est réuni ce réseau, trois initiatives ont été prises par certains de ces membres, chacune d’entre elles associant certaines des institutions impliquées dans EECURI et tout ou partie du groupe :
1/ Louise Tillin (King’s College London), a lancé un groupe de recherche européano-indo- américain sur la nouvelle économie politique de l’Inde. Ce réseau qui s’est réuni à Mumbai en janvier 2017 associe une dizaine de membres d’EECURI.
2/ Christophe Jaffrelot (CERI - Sciences Po) et Malvika Maheshwari (Ashoka University) ont obtenu du consortium Alliance regroupant Sciences Po, Columbia University et Ashoka University, le financement d’un groupe de travail sur le thème « Conservatism in India » qui s’est réuni en Inde en décembre 2016.
3/ Anne Sophie Cousteaux (CDSP – Sciences Po), Virginie Dutoya (Centre Emile Durkheim), Christophe Jaffrelot (CERI – Sciences Po) et Gilles Verniers (Ashoka University) ont obtenu en 2017 le financement quadriennal par le CNRS d’un Laboratoire International Associé qui se consacrera à l’extension de la base de données des députés indiens commencée par EECURI. Ce projet baptisé SENRUIC (Sociologie des Elus Nationaux et Régionaux du Raj à l’Union Indienne Contemporaine (1919 – 2019) ) s’étendra sur les années 2018-2021. En parallèle, Christophe Jaffrelot représentera un ERC collaboratif sur le même thème, reprenant celui qu’il a proposé en 2016 sous le titre The Transformation of India’s Political Elite: Sociology and Trajectories of Indian Members of Parliament and State Legislative Assemblies (IndiaEliPol).
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Annexe 1
Réunions organisées dans le cadre d’EECURI
1/ EECURI Workshop King’s India Institute, King’s College London
Day 1: Monday March 18th 2013
9am: Welcome (Christophe Jaffrelot, Sunil Khilnani and Louise Tillin)
9.30-11am: Electoral Politics in Urban India
Speakers: Sanjay Kumar (CSDS), ‘Indian Urban Middle Class and their Engagement with Politics’ Gayatri Singh (Sciences Po), ‘Elections and Battle for Power among Muslim Corporators: Case of Jaipur Municipal Elections’ Discussant: Sunil Khilnani
11.15-1.15pm: Civic Engagement and Democracy in Indian Cities
Vidhu Verma (JNU), ‘Civic Education, Urban spaces and Building Democracy in India: A Civil Society in Transition’ Santosh More (Janaagraha), ‘The role of Urban Electoral Rolls in poor urban voter turnout: The story of Jaagte Raho and the PURE (Proper URban Electoral Rolls) process’
Ebony Bertorelli (Janaagraha), ‘Understanding the quality of citizenship and its impact on democratic processes in Urban India: Preliminary Findings and Methodological issues’
Discussant: Louise Tillin
2.15-4.15pm: Caste, Class and Dynasty in Urban and Rural India
Gilles Verniers (Sciences-Po; CSH) and Francesca Jensenius (Berkeley/Warwick), ‘Localizing Caste and Party Politics’
Narender Kumar and Siddhartha Mukerji (BR Ambedkar University, Lucknow), ‘Urban-rural Dynamics in Uttar Pradesh’s Electoral Politics: a Comparison of State Assembly Elections of 2007 and 2012’
Romain Carlevan (City University, Hong Kong), ‘Families with a Fiefdom: a Study of Hereditary Politics and Spatiality in Central India since Independence’
Discussant: Sudha Pai (JNU)
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4.30-6pm: Studying Local Politics using Ethnographic and Statistical Methods across Urban and Rural Spaces
Raphael Susewind (Bielefeld), ‘Maulana Singh Yadav? An empirical exploration of “the Muslim vote” in the sixteenth assembly elections in Uttar Pradesh’
Mukulika Banerjee (LSE), ‘Why India Votes: Comparative ethnographic studies from the 2009 Lok Sabha elections’
Tuesday March 19th 2013
Morning: Elections 2012
9-11am: Gujarat 2012
Christophe Jaffrelot (CERI-Sciences Po/CNRS), ‘Gujarat Elections : the sub-text of Modi’s’hat-trick’, High-tech Populism and the ‘neo-middle class’
Asheesh Mehta and Brajesh (Governance Now) and Manisha Priyam (Delhi University), ‘Gujarat election ethnographies’
Discussant: Oliver Heath
11.30-12.30: Himachal Pradesh 2012
Pralay Kanungo (JNU) and Adnan Farooqi (JNU)
Discussant: Francesca Jensenius
2/ EECURI Conference at Janaagraha (Bangalore)
Friday January 3rd 2014
9am: Welcome (Swati Ramanathan, Ramesh Ramanathan, Christophe Jaffrelot, Louise Tillin)
9.30-11.00am: Elections in the City: Urban Electoral Trends
Speakers: Ravi Shankar Jayaram, King’s College, ‘Urban machine politics: Caste networks, real- estate, and resilient local elites in post-Mandal UP’ Ebony Bertorelli and Santosh More, Janaagraha, ‘The Role of Urban Voter Lists and the Need for Proper Urban Electoral Lists (PURE Lists)’
Discussant: Ramesh Ramanathan
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11.15am -12:45pm: Urban- Rural Comparative Perspectives: Is there a changing face to electoral politics as India urbanizes? Adam Ziegfield, King’s College/ Beloit College, ‘Voting for Parties or Candidates? Evidence from Haryana’ Virginie Dutoya, CERI/Sciences Po, ‘Are urban constituencies more suitable for women? The case of female legislators in Madhya Pradesh’
Discussant: Sanjay Kumar
2.00-3.30pm: The Remarkable Rise of the AAP: Theoretical Underpinnings and Analysis Sanjay Kumar, Centre for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS), ‘Social Media for Electoral Mobilisation: Delhi Assembly Elections 2013’ Pralay Kanungo and Adnan Farooqui, Jawaharlal Nehru University (JNU), ‘Marketing Anti-Corruption on Delhi Streets: The Arrival of the Aam Admi Party’
Discussant: Christophe Jaffrelot
4.00-6pm: Electoral Accountability Manisha Priyam, ICSSR Fellow, Nehru Memorial Museum and Library, ‘Pipe Dreams: Unauthorised Lives, Water Scarcity, and Voter Deliberations in Delhi's Sangam Vihar’ Oliver Health and Sanjay Kumar, King’s College and CSDS, ‘When do voters throw the rascals out? Party competition, the clarity of alternatives and performance evaluations in North India’ Louise Tillin and Oliver Heath, King’s College, “Public service delivery and modes of electoral accountability In Chhattisgarh and Madhya Pradesh”
Discussant: Gilles Verniers
Day 2: Saturday January 4th 2014
9.00-11.00am: Analysis of Recent State Elections (Part 1) Zuheir Desai, Sciences Po, Gujurat and Karnataka State Elections James Manor, School of Advanced Study, University of London, ‘Lucky in its Adversaries: A Slipshod Congress Gains a Majority in the Karnataka Election’
Discussant: Louise Tillin
11.30am -12.30pm: Analysis of Recent State Elections (Part 1) Louise Tillin, King’s College, Chhattisgarh Elections Christophe Jaffrelot and Gilles Verniers, Sciences Po, ‘Madhya Pradesh State Elections: Urban/Rural Comparative Perspectives’
Discussant: James Manor
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1.30-4.00 pm Roundtable Discussion ~ECCURI Network Outputs- Planning for contributors’ publications.
Chair: Pralay Kanungo
3/ EECURI Workshop on the 2014 Lok Sabha Elections
June 11th 2014, King’s India Institute, King’s College London
Room K018 (Ground Floor, King’s building)
This day-long workshop focused on analysing the dynamics behind the Lok Sabha election results taking in the performance and strategies of political parties; voter behaviour; regional races; the overall conduct of the elections and the resulting patterns of political representation. In the evening, a public panel discussion will turn attention to the consequences of the 2014 elections for the future of Indian democracy.
9.30-10.45: OPENING ROUND-TABLE – ANALYTICAL FRAMES FOR UNDERSTANDING THE 2014 ELECTION (Chair: Louise Tillin)
Professor Suhas Palshikar (University of Pune; and Director of Lokniti): What is critical about this election?
Professor Sudipta Kaviraj (Columbia University)
Dr Quraishi (former Chief Election Commissioner of India)
Dr Sandipto Dasgupta (Newton Postdoctoral Fellow, King’s India Institute)
11-12.45: OVERALL PERFORMANCE OF THE PARTIES (Chair: Prof Sandeep Shastri, Pro-VC, Jain University)
Professor Christophe Jaffrelot (King’s India Institute/Sciences-Po): What Modi’s elevation has meant for the BJP and its strategy
Dr Oliver Heath (Royal Holloway, University of London): The swing to the BJP
Professor James Manor (University of London): What happened to Congress?
Dr Louise Tillin (King’s India Institute): What happened to regional parties?
Discussant: Prof Suhas Palshikar
1.30-2.45pm: REGIONAL RACES (Chair: Professor Alfred Stepan, Columbia University)
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Dr Mukulika Banerjee (LSE): West Bengal
Dr Andrew Wyatt (University of Bristol) and James Chiriyankandath (University of London): Patterns in the South
Professor Rajeshwari Deshpande (University of Pune): Maharashtra: end of the Congress System
3-4.30 MAJOR THEMES (Chair: Katharine Adeney, University of Nottingham)
Professor Rajeshwari Deshpande: Was there a new India behind Modi's victory? Patterns from the NES survey
Dr Carole Spary (University of York): Women candidates and nomination trends (and Rajeshwari Deshpande on gender based voting patterns)
Dr Adam Auerbach (American University/visiting fellow at King’s India Institute): Patterns in urban constituencies
Dr Anastasia Piliavsky (University of Cambridge): Criminal MPs?
6-7.30: EVENING PUBLIC PANEL DISCUSSION – INDIAN ELECTIONS: OUTCOMES AND IMPLICATIONS
Nash Lecture Theatre, Room K2.31
Speakers: Christophe Jaffrelot, Sudipta Kaviraj, James Manor, Suhas Palshikar Chair: Louise Tillin
4/ EECURI Workshop (9 January 2015) Studying Elections: Reflections on Methods Venue: 108, Convention Centre, JNU, New Delhi
Session I : 9:30 a.m.-11:30 a.m.
Chair: Professor Sudha Pai, Rector, Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi
Manisha Priyam, Associate Professor, NUEPA, Delhi The Use of Ethnography in Understanding Elections in India: Some Methodological Reflections
Christophe Jaffrelot, CERI-Sciences Po/CNRS, Paris The Contribution of Ethnography to the Understanding of Survey Data’s Variables: The Case of Class and Urbanisation in the 2014 Election
Manindra Thakur, Associate Professor, Centre for Political Studies, Jawaharlal Nehru University
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Analyzing Indian Elections: A Qualitative Research Model
Session II
11:45 p.m. - 1:15 p.m.
Chair: Christophe Jaffrelot
Nilanjan Mukhopadhyay, Senior Journalist, Author and Political Commentator Chronicle of an Election Foretold: Media Landscape, Reportage and the 2014 Elections
Vikas Tripathi, Assistant Professor, Department of Political Science, Guwahati University The convergence of Poll Surveys and Ethnographic Analysis: Explaining the BJP victory in 2014 MP Lok Sabha Elections
Session III
2p.m.-3:30 p.m.
Chair: Dr. Narender Kumar, Associate Professor, Centre for Political Studies, JNU
Sarayu Natarajan, PhD candidate, King’s India Institute, London Where is Fatima Bi*? : Conducting Quantitative Research in Urban Bangalore
Virginie Dutoyoa, Sciences Po, Paris Analyzing Political Families in Indian Legislatures: Problems of Methods
Session IV
3:45 p.m.-5:45 p.m.
Chair: Professor Sanjay Kumar, Director, Centre for the Study of Developing Societies, New Delhi
Siddharth Mukherjee, Assistant Professor, Department of Political Science, BBAU, Lucknow Urban-Rural Pattern of Women’s Voting Behaviour in Gorakhpur
Sarthak Bagchi, PhD candidate, University of Leiden, Netherlands Analyzing campaigns in Maharashtra Assembly Elections: Similarities and Differences in Rural and Urban spheres
Gilles Verniers, Assistant Professor, Political Science, Ashoka University Observations from Recent State Elections
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5/ EECURI Conference
The elected representatives of India : MPs, MLAs and others
CERI-Sciences Po/CNRS 56 rue Jacob, 75006 Paris 22 – 23 June 2015
Day 1 : 22 June 2015
Socio-demographic variables of the elected and the un-elected
9H30 – 11H00: Candidates and MPs Chair Christophe Jaffrelot (CERI-Sciences Po/CNRS)
AdamZiegfeld (The George Washington University), When Do Candidates Matter? Evidence from Elections in North India."
Sanjay Kumar (CSDS – New Delhi) How representative are our Elected Representatives: Comparing the Social profile of contestants and Elected Representatives of 2014 Lok Sabha elections
Dscussant : Gilles Verniers (Ashoka University)
11H00 – 1H00 : Caste, class, education, gender and religion Chair Louise Tillin (King’s College London)
Christophe Jaffrelot and Gilles Verniers The social profile of the Indian MPs
Zuheir Desai (Rochester University) The Muslim MPs
Discussant : Pralay Kanungo (Leiden University)
14 H 00 – 15 H 30 : The case of Delhi Chair James Manor (University of London)
Adnan Farooqui (Jamia Millia Islamia, New Delhi) & Pralay Kanungo, ‘ Politics of Citizen Participation and Representation: A Profile of the Aam Aadmi Party
Manisha Priyam (National University of Educational Planning and Administration, New Delhi), Netas, Parshads, and the MLA: Political Actors in Delhi's Changing Political Landscape
Discussant : Mukulika Banerjee (London School of Economics)
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16H00-17H30 : The 2014 Lok Sabha elections one year after
Round table discussion on the occasion of the release of the special issues of Contemporary South Asia and Studies in Indian Politics edited, respectively, by Louise Tillin, Gilles Verniers and Christophe Jaffrelot in the framework of EECURI.
Day 2 : 23 June 2015
10h00 – 12 H 30 : Dynasties Chair Sanjay Kumar
James Manor The Principle of Heredity in Indian Politics -- In Comparative Perspective
Romain Carlevan (Hong Kong University) Wives and Widows, Matriarchs and Mistresses: Classifying female dynasts in contemporary Northern India
Pralay Kanungo and Gyana Ranjan Swain, The Politics of Dynasties/Families: A Profile of the Odisha MLAs and MPs
Narender Kumar (Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi), Dynasty/Family Politics and 2014 Elections in Haryana
Discussant Manisha Priyam
14 H 00 – 16 H 00 : Round table on recent state and local elections Chair James Manor
Sanjay Kumar : A complete overview Sarthak Bagshi (Leiden University): Maharashtra Saba Naqvi (Outlook, New Delhi): Delhi Narendra Kumar : Haryana Adnan Farooqui : Jammu and Kashmir Mukulika Banerjee : West Bengal Panchayat elections
6/ EECURI Workshop
The profiling of the Indian MLAs
Date : 11th of December 2015 Venue : CERI, 56 rue Jacob, 75006 Paris
9: 30 – 12: 30 : Chair, Christophe Jaffrelot (CERI-Sciences Po/CNRS)
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Methods and Problems in the Profiling of Indian Legislators. (coding caste, class, education, political families and individual incumbency).
Gilles Verniers (Ashoka), Rajkamal Singh (Ashoka), Venkat Prasath (Ashoka), Sanjay Kumar (CSDS), Anne-Sophie Coustaux (CDSD – Sciences Po) and Virginie Dutoya (Emile Durkheim, Bordeaux)
Discussion initiated by Pradeep Chhibber (Berkeley)
1: 30 – 17: 30 : Chair, Pradeep Chhibber (Berkeley)
The social profile of the MLAs in four Indian states
Changed Social profile of Delhi’s MLA. Sanjay Kumar
The Changing Social Profile of the Odisha MLAs Pralay Kanungo
Rajasthan : the More it Changes… Christophe Jaffrelot and Jusmeet Singh Sihra (CERI-Sciences Po/CNRS)
Coffee break : 15 : 15 – 15 -30 pm
Bihar: Ten years of Shifting Alliances and the Resurgence of OBCs Gilles Verniers and Rajkamal
Discussant : Louise Tillin (King’s India Institute – KCL)
7/ EECURI Conferenve, SARISKA, RAJASTHAN (18-19 January, 2016)
18th January
Session-I
Chair: Prof. Sanjay Kumar, Director, CSDS, Delhi
A vote for campaign: Analysing the role of the campaign politics in Bihar Assembly Elections 2015, Sarthak Baghchi, Ph. D candidate, Lieden University
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RJD and the 2015 Bihar Assembly Elections, Adnan Farooqui , Assistant Professor, Department of Political Science, JMI, Delhi
Why the BJP lost in Bihar? Dr. Maninder Thakur, Associate Professor, CPS, JNU, Delhi
Session-II
Chair: Prof. Gopal Guru, CPS, JNU, New Delhi
Development and the Subtext of Caste: State Elections Seen from The Flaming Fields of Central Bihar , Dr. Manisha Priyam, Associate Professor, NUEPA, Delhi
Development and the Subtext of Communalism: The Significance of the Seemanchal Region in Bihar Elections, Pankaj Jha, University of Delhi, Delhi
Migrant, Home, and Politics, Dr. Tanweer Fazal, Associate Professor,CSSS, JNU, New Delhi
Session-III
Chair: Dr. Manisha Priyam, Associate Professor, NUEPA, Delhi
Local elections in Rajasthan, with special reference to Ajmer, Prof.Christophe Jaffrelot and Jusmeet Singh Sihra, CERI-Sciences Po/ CNRS, Paris.
Urban-Rural Campaigning Patterns in Bihar Elections 2015: A Survey of Goplaganj District Siddhartha Mukherjee, Assistant Professor, Department of Political Science, BBAU, Lucknow
Session-IV
Chair: Prof. Dwaipayan Bhattacharyya, CPS, JNU, New Delhi
National’ and ‘Local’: Understanding the Rise of BJP in Assam, Vikas Tripathi , Assistant Professor, Department of Political Science, Gauhati University, Guwahati.
Elections in Urban Local bodies in odisha (2003- 2014): A Study of the voting behaviour and social profile of elected mayors, Dr. Gyan Ranjan
Kerala Local body Polls: Reasons behind BJP’s resurgence, Balu, Ph.D candidate, CPS, JNU, Delhi
Day 2
The Defining Victory: Explaining the 2014 Elections Introduction : Dr. Irfan Ahmad, Associate Professor, Institute of Religion, Politics, & Society, ACU, Melbourne, Australia
Session-I
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Chair: Prof. Christophe Jaffrelot
Managing Victory: RSS and 2014 Elections, Prof. Badri Narayan ,CSDE, JNU, Delhi
Terror Threats as Electoral Strategy: The Crafting of the Hindutva Icon, Dr. Manisha Sethi, Assistant Professor,CSCRC, JMI
Democracy as Rumour: Media, Religion, and the 2014 Indian Elections , Dr. Irfan Ahmad, Associate Professor, Institute of Religion, Politics, & Society, ACU, Melbourne, Australia
Session-II
Chair: Dr. Irfan Ahmad, Associate Professor, Institute of Religion, Politics, & Society, ACU, Melbourne, Australia
BJP’s Muslims: The Muslim Reach Out by Hindutva in the 2014 Elections, Mr.Mohammad Reyaz , Assistant Editor, TwoCircles.net
Media Mediated Democracy: Lessons from General Elections 2014, Mr. Sudhir Patnaik, Editor, Samadrusti.
Metamorphosis of Loyalty: Limits of Tamil Nationalism and the Rise of BJP in Tamil Nadu, R.Thirunavukkarasu, Department of History, University of Hyderabad, Hyderabad Prof. Pralay Kanungo, ICSSR Chair of Contemporary Indian Studies, University of Leiden, Netherlands
8/ EECURI Final conference
Tuesday 7- Wednesday 8 June 2016
Seligman Library, Department of Anthropology, 6th Floor Old Building Houghton Street, London School of Economics and Political Science
From Identity to Interests? Quantitative and Qualitative explanations of electoral change in rural and urban India (EECURI)
In the research proposal we had proposed to study the following themes:
• to explore voter motivations to vote in electing different tiers of government • whether voters were moving from identity related to issue based motivations • to study if this was as true in cities, if not in villages • what is the nature of caste and religion based politic in urban electoral spaces as compared to rural ones
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• the changing profile of elected representatives – including MLAs, members of Panchayats and urban municipal corporations • role of local dynasties and resilience of patronage in electoral politics • to explore the complementarity of survey-based and ethnographic approaches in the study of elections • to focus in particular on state and Panchayat elections
The network brought together researchers based at Sciences Po (Jaffrelot), colleagues in JNU (Kanungo) and BR Ambedkar University (Narender Kumar), Kings India Institute (Tillin) and LSE (Banerjee) as well as Janaagraha in Bangalore.
In the final conference, we hope to revisit these themes through the fresh research that has been conducted by members of the network over the past few years and to engage in conversation colleagues who have been working on related themes. These include those focused more on clientelism (and transitions from it, including the impact of changing patterns of service delivery) (Chandra, Wilkinson), dynastic politics (Chandra, Jensenius), the particular trajectories of politics in urban areas (Bjorkman), the variation in electoral politics across India’s states and the role of identity (caste, religion, gender etc) in determining election outcomes (Jensenius, Heath, Chibber). We also intend to invite scholars who have been part of this project through their writing and active participation working on related issues (Sanjay Kumar, Sinha, Vaid, Uday Chandra) to comment and engage on the outcomes of the EECURI project and to take conversations forward.
Day one
Tuesday 7th June
0915-0930: Introductory Remarks by Mukulika Banerjee
0930-1100: Local Elections in India Session I: Jharkhand and Uttar Pradesh
Chair and discussant: Pradeep Chibber
1. Manisha Priyam and Pankaj Jha: ‘Panchayat Elections in Jharkhand: From identity to development?’
2. Siddhartha Mukerji: ‘Emerging Trends in UP’s Gram Pradhan Elections 2015: Caste, Gender and Violence’
3. Rahul Verma: ‘Why Incumbents lose?: An ethnographic account of Hariyya village Panchayat Election in Eastern Uttar Pradesh’
1100 -1130: Tea/Coffee Break
1130-1300: Local Elections in India Session II: Haryana, Gujarat and Rajasthan
Chair and discussant: Divya Vaid
1. Narender Kumar: ‘Panchayat Elections in Haryana 2016 and Emerging Trends’
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2. Christophe Jaffrelot and Jusmeet Singh Sihra: ‘Local elections in Rajasthan and Gujarat’
3. Mukulika Banerjee and Manisha Priyam: ‘Emerging Issues in India’s State Elections’
1300-1400: Lunch
1400-1600: Emerging themes and trends in National Politics from Assembly Elections
Chair and discussant: Steven Wilkinson
1. Louise Tillin: ‘Issue based motivations for voting: Evidence from 2016 Assembly Elections 2. Manindra Nath Thakur: ‘How do people vote? A study of Bochha Assembly Constituency in 2015 Bihar Assembly Elections’ 3. Dwaipayan Bhattacharya: ‘Partisan Identities and Locality Politics: How West Bengal Votes’
4. Sanjay Kumar: ‘Where is BJP heading for: Analysing Results of Assembly Elections post 2014 Lok Sabha elections’
5. Adnan Farooqi: ‘AIMIM in the post 2014 scenario’
1600-1615: Tea/Coffee Break
1615-1730: Leadership in Indian Politics
Chair and discussant: Aseema Sinha
1. Oliver Heath: ‘Candidate evaluations in India: Evidence from 2016 Tami Nadu Assembly Election’ (20 Mins)
2. Virginie Dutoya: ‘Women in the Indian Lok Sabha: Understanding patterns of political inclusion and success (1952-2014’)
3. Radhika Kumar: ‘Women representatives in Panchayat Elections in Haryana’
1730-1830: Drinks reception; Alumni Theatre, New Academic Building
1830-2000: Special Lecture by Sumit Guha: ‘Beyond Caste: Identity and Power in South Asia, Past and Present’; Alumni Theatre, New Academic Building
2000-2200: Dinner, 8th Floor, New Academic Building
Day Two
Wednesday 8th June
0900-1100: Roundtable I - Indian Politics: A shift from Identity to Interests?
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Chair: Christophe Jaffrelot
Speakers: Aseema Sinha, Francesca Jensenius, Kanchan Chandra and Steve Wilkinson
1100 –1130 Tea/Coffee Break
1130 -1300: Roundtable II – Studying Indian Politics: Methodological challenges and innovations
Chair: Pralay Kanungo
Speakers: Divya Vaid, Lisa Bjorkman, Pradeep Chibber and Uday Chandra
1300-1400: Lunch
1400-1500: Book manuscript discussion Pradeep Chibber and Rahul Verma: ‘Ideological Polarization in Multi-Ethnic societies: Ideology and Making of Indian Party System’
1500-1530: Tea/Coffee Break
1530-1730: Conclusions and Outputs of the EECURI project from Principal Investigators
Speakers: Christophe Jaffrelot, Louise Tillin, Mukulika Banerjee, Narender Kumar and Pralay Kanungo.
1800-1930 Book launch reception for books published in the last 12 months on Indian politics.
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Annexe 2
Publications réalisées dans le cadre d’EECURI
1/ Numéros spéciaux
Numéro spécial de revue coordonné par Louise Tillin et Gilles Verniers : « Explaining the Landslide », Contemporary South Asia, vol. 23, no 2, June 2015
Numéro spécial de revue coordonné par Christophe Jaffrelot : « Understanding India’s 2014 Elections », Studies in Indian Politics, vol. 3, no 1, June 2015.
Numéro spécial de revue coordonné par Manisha Peiyam, « Living and Struggle in Delhi’s Urban Periphery », Seminar, Volume 663, November 2014
2/ Articles de revues à comité de lecture
Sarthak Bagchi, The Political Campaign, Seminar: The Bihar Ballot, Issue 678, February, 2015.
Oliver Heath, « Does multiparty competition increase ethnic security fears? Evidence from North India. Party Politics », Party politics, 22(6), 2016, pp. 746-757.
Oliver Heath, « The BJP’s return to power : mobilisation, conversion and vote swing in the 2014 Indian elections », Contemporary South Asia, vol. 23, no 2, June 2015, pp. 123 – 135.
Olver Heath, Gilles Verniers G and Sanjay Kumar, « Do Muslim voters prefer Muslim candidates? Co-religiosity and voting behaviour in India », Electoral Studies, Volume 38, June 2015, Pages 10–18
Christophe Jaffrelot, « The Class Element in the 2014 Indian Election and the BJP’s Success with Special Reference to the Hindi Belt », in « Understanding India’s 2014 Elections », Studies in Indian Politics, vol. 3, no 1, June 2015, pp. 19 – 38.
Christophe Jaffrelot and Sanjay Kumar, « The Impact of Urbanization on the Electoral Results of the 2014 Indian Elections: With Special reference to the BJP Vote », in « Understanding India’s 2014 Elections », Studies in Indian Politics, vol. 3, no 1, June 2015, pp.39-49.
Christophe Jaffrelot, « The Modi-centric BJP 2014 election campaign: New techniques and old tactics », Contemporary South Asia, vol. 23, no 2, June 2015, pp. 151 – 166.
Christophe Jaffrelot, « Quota for Patels? The Neo-middleclass Syndrome and the (Partial) Return of Caste Politics in Gujarat », Studies in Indian Politics, 4(2), 2016, pp. 1-15.
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Pankaj Kumar Jha, « The Rallies of Seemanchal in Bihar Election: Through my Own Eyes », Democracies Published by Bhai Jagjiwan Ram Research Institute, Patna. March 2016.
Pralay Kanungo, « The Rise of the Bharatiya Janata Party in West Bengal », Studies in Indian Politics, vol. 3, no 1, June 2015, pp. 50 – 69.
Sanjay Kumar and Pranav Gupta, « Changing Patterns of Women’s Turnout in Indian Elections », Studies in Indian Politics, vol. 3, no 1, June 2015, pp. 7-19.
James Manor, « An Odisha lanslide buries both national parties : assessing the state and parliamentary elections of 2014 », Contemporary South Asia, vol. 23, no 2, June 2015, pp. 198 – 210.
Siddhartha Mukerji, « Understanding Urban–Rural Patterns of BJP Campaigning in UP (Lok Sabha Elections 2014) », Studies in Indian Politics, vol. 3, no 1, June 2015, pp.
Manisha Priyam, « Electing the Ruling Party and the Opposition: Voter Deliberations from Sangam Vihar, Delhi, Lok Sabha Elections 2014 », Studies in Indian Politics, vol. 3, no 1, June 2015, pp. 94 – 110.
Manisha Priyam, “Electing the Ruling Party and the Opposition: Voter Deliberations from Sangam Vihar, Delhi, Lok Sabha Elections 2014”, Studies in Indian Politics, Sage, July 2015
Manisha Priyam, “Pipe Dreams”, Seminar (A Symposium on Life, Living and Struggle in Delhi’s Urban Periphery), Volume 663, November 2014, p. 23-27
Manisha Priyam, « Political Ethnography as a Method for Understanding Urban Politics and Elections in India », Studies in Indian Politics, 4(1), 2016, pp. 119-121.
Manisha Priyam, “Political Processes Under the Microscope: Comparative Ethnography as an Approach to Understanding Democracy and Elections in India”, Studies in Indian Politics, Sage, July 2017 (forthcoming)
Smitana Saikia, « General Election 2014: Will BJP’s Gains Polarize Assam Further? », Studies in Indian Politics, vol. 3, no 1, June 2015, pp. 69 – 80.
Smitana Saikia , « General elections 2014 : ethnic outbiding and politics of ‘homelands’ in Assam’s Bodoland », Contemporary South Asia, vol. 23, no 2, June 2015, pp. 211 – 222.
Manindra Nath Thakur, « How Do Muslims Vote? Case of Seemanchal 2014 Parliamentary Elections », Studies in Indian Politics, vol. 3, no 1, June 2015, pp. 81 – 93.
Louise Tillin, « Indian elections 2014 : explaining the landslide », Contemporary South Asia, vol. 23, no 2, June 2015, pp. 117 – 122.
Louise Tillin, « Regional resilience and national party system change : India’s 2014 general election context », Contemporary South Asia, vol. 23, no 2, June 2015, pp. 181 – 197.
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Adam Ziegfeld, « Candidate Characteristics in Indian Elections: Who Wins Votes? », Asian Survey, 55 (5), 2016, pp. 1018-1043.
3/ Chapitres d’ouvrages collectifs
Sarthak Bagchi, “Re-evaluating Maratha Politics in Maharashtra: Post 2014 Assembly Elections”, in Ashutosh Kumar and Yatindra Sisodiya (eds), Electoral Politics in Indian states: 2014 Elections and after, New Delhi, Orient Blackswan (Forthcoming).
S. Balu, « 2014 Lok Sabha Mandate in Kerala: Signs of Deviation », in Ashutosh Kumar and Yatindra Sisodiya (eds), Electoral Politics in Indian states: 2014 Elections and after, New Delhi, Orient Blackswan (Forthcoming).
Adnan Farooqui, « Chronicle of Janata Parivar foretold—JD(U) and RJD in post-2014 Bihar », in Ashutosh Kumar and Yatindra Sisodiya (eds), Electoral Politics in Indian states: 2014 Elections and after, New Delhi, Orient Blackswan (Forthcoming).
Christophe Jaffrelot and Gilles Verniers, « The Resistance of Regionalism : BJP’s Limitations and the Resilience of State Parties », in Paul Wallace (ed.), India’s 2014 Elections. A Modi-led BJP Sweep, New Delhi, Sage, 2015, pp. pp. 28 – 47.
Vikas Tripathy, « ‘Shifting Social Base’: Explaining the Rise of BJP in Assam », in Ashutosh Kumar and Yatindra Sisodiya (eds), Electoral Politics in Indian states: 2014 Elections and after, New Delhi, Orient Blackswan (Forthcoming).
4/ Livres
Adam Ziegler, Why Regional Parties?: Clientelism, Elites, and the Indian Party System, Cambridge, Cambridge University Press, 2016.
Christophe Jaffrelot, Sanjay Kumar et Gilles Verniers (dir.), A New Sociology of the Indian Elected Representatives. Caste, Class, Crimes and Dynasties, Delhi, Routledge, forthcoming.
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