EPSA Newsletter 2/2011

EPSA Newsletter Vol. I, Issue 2 September 2011

Editor: Friedrich Stadler | Assistant Editor: Daniel Kuby

SPECIAL EPSA11 ATHENS EDITION

EDITORIAL TABLE OF CONTENTS

Friedrich Stadler Editorial Friedrich Stadler ! 1 Dear members and colleagues, Philosophy of Science in Greece: We are pleased to release the second issue of our Newsletter, which is mainly Past, Present dedicated to the philosophy of science in Greece on the occasion of the forth- and Future coming 3rd conference of the European Philosophy of Science Association Stathis Psillos 3 (EPSA11) in Athens, October 5-8, 2011. Therefore, this special issue includes an informative report by Stathis Psillos A Revival of on the development of philosophy of science in Greece and a shorter piece by Integrated History and Philosophy of Theodore Arabatzis on another major event in Athens next year, the meeting Science of the Integrated History and Philosophy of Science (&HPS) group in Athens. Theodore Arabatzis 8 Both authors are engaged in the conference: Psillos, the former EPSA Presi- dent as Chair, and Arabatzis, a member of the Steering Committee as Co- 1st EPSA Lecture: Chair of the Local Organising Committee of EPSA11. What the Bayesian Decision Theorist could tell the Bayesian Philosopher (Abstract) Philippe Mongin 9

A Note from the Publisher Springer Ties Nijssen 12

Hotel Titania, Venue of the EPSA11 Conference

Besides these two contributions, we another permanent activity of our Together with the EPSA Folder, included the extended abstract of the Association. which was already released and pro- 1st EPSA Lecture on the role of duced for dissemination in the hope Bayesianism in philosophy and sci- Finally, we are pleased to announce of attracting new members and for a ence, delivered by Philippe Mongin that the EPSA Newsletter will be short self-presentation–also avail- (Paris) at the 14th DLMPS Congress available as a printable PDF-format able on the EPSA-website–we are in Nancy last July, for those who accessible on our website: strengthening our efforts for the phi- could not attend this highly topical www.epsa.ac.at. Both issues are ad- losophy of science community. presentation. ditionally attached to the Circular Letter. In the future, we intend to We are looking forward to our con- The representative of our publisher establish a forum for discussions, ference in Athens and the future ac- Springer, Ties Nijssen, has provided announcements, and reviews related tivities (publications and confer- information on recent developments to philosophy of science in Europe to ences) of our young Association. regarding publications, esp. the sec- which our members are invited to ond issue of the European Journal contribute. Friedrich Stadler for Philosophy of Science (EJPS), (President of EPSA)

ABOUT THE AUTHOR Friedrich Stadler is Professor of History and Philosophy of Science (Joint Appointment) at the University of Vienna, Austria and Director of the Institute Vienna Cir- cle (IVC). He holds a D.Phil. in history and philosophy (University of Salzburg). He has published on various topics in modern history and philosophy of science, with a focus on Logical Empiri- cism in the context of intellectual migration and exile studies, theory and methodology of contemporary history and historiography. Personal Website: http://www.univie.ac.at/ivc/stadler/index.htm

2. PAGE (OF 12) ! EPSA Newsletter Vol. I, Issue 2 September 2011

Editor: Friedrich Stadler | Assistant Editor: Daniel Kuby

PHILOSOPHY OF SCIENCE IN GREECE: PAST, PRESENT AND FUTURE

Stathis Psillos

Philosophy of science emerged in Greece in the early 1970s and started to acquire momentum after the fall of the military junta in 1974. Back The Department of Philosophy and History of Science, University of Athens then, philosophy as practiced in There were the first translations into published mostly translations of Greece was mostly concerned with Greek of some classic papers of ana- some important philosophical pa- the ancient Greek literature—mainly lytic philosophy and a growing inter- pers and to a lesser extent some from an exegetical and philological est in Wittgenstein’s philosophy original research. Three issues in point of view. There was also some (with the translation into Greek of 1975, 1977 and 1978 respectively interest in the history of philoso- the Tractatus in 1971 and of the were dedicated to translations of phy—mainly the continental phi- Philosophical Investigations in some major papers in the philosophy losophy. Overall, there was little en- 1974). Most of the creative philo- of science (by Popper, Hempel and gagement in systematic and innova- sophical activity was still taking Kuhn), the philosophy of physics (by tive philosophical research in the place outside the university and was Reichenbach, Bohr and Langevin) main areas of the discipline (perhaps organised by the Centre of Philo- and the philosophy of biology (by with the exception of ethics). sophical Research (founded by Paul Dobzhansky, Mayr, and Maynard- Christodoulidis), which operated in Smith). It was the general intellectual cli- Athens. CPR also organised series of lectures, mate that came with the fall of the The CPR established the philosophi- seminars and courses for the general dictatorship, fostering as it was theo- cal quarterly Deukalion, named after public, taught by the founding mem- retical pursuits, heated debates, the mythological hero who survived bers of the CPR and by younger open-mindedness and the critical the Deluge with his wife Pyrrha and scholars who had recently finished spirit, which made room for the cul- re-created humanity. The journal their PhDs, mostly abroad. tivation of analytic philosophy.

3. PAGE (OF 12) ◆ Psillos, Stathis: “Philosophy of science in Greece: past, present and future”, epsa-Newsletter Vol. 1, No. 2, © 2011, pp. 3–7. PHILOSOPHY OF SCIENCE IN GREECE: PAST, PRESENT AND FUTURE Stathis Psillos

These courses were regularly pub- duction to the Greek translation of ism started to spread, though his lished in a series called ‘Philosophy Carnap’s Philosophy and the Logical major philosophy of science works Chapters’ and brought a younger Syntax of Language. It was under have yet to be translated into Greek. generation of philosophers and sci- Avgelis’s supervision that Christo- A talented young member of the entists in contact with analytic phi- doulidis wrote his dissertation on the group, Emilios Metaxopoulos (1955- losophy. deductive-nomological model of ex- 2010) translated into Greek in 1986 planation, offering the first in Greek Lakatos’s book on the MSRP and Circa 1978, the Association of Physi- systematic account of neo-positi- published in 1988 a notable book (in cists and members of the Physics vism, and that Vassilis Kalfas wrote Greek) titled Convention and Truth: Dept of the University of Athens his own dissertation on issues of ra- the adventures of modern episte- started to organise series of seminars tionality and scientific progress. mology from Duhem to Lakatos. and conferences on the foundations of physics. A key role was played by Kuhn’s Structure was translated into the French-educated physicist and Greek by Kalfas in 1981. The recep- philosopher of science Eftichios Bit- tion of the Structure was extremely sakis, who founded the Interdiscipli- warm. The book immediately struck nary Research Group and had al- a very sensitive cord among a group ready published a number of books of Marxism-oriented scientists who, on philosophical issues in modern physics, mainly from a Marxist viewpoint.

In Thessaloniki, during the 1970s, there was a group of young main- Greek editions of Lakatos’, stream philosophers in the Aristotle Feyerabend’s and Kuhn’s major works University working around George Mourelos (1912-1993), who was educated in France and had some interest in the methodology of science. (He published a book on Meyerson’s philosophy in French in the late arguably, found in the Structure a 1960s). Nikos Avgelis wrote his dis- philosophical reading of the history sertation on the concept of causation of science congenial to the structur- in modern philosophy of science and alist and Marxist schools of French had a sustained interest in analytic philosophy in the 1960s and the philosophy and the Logical Positiv- French epistemological tradition. ism. He also supervised the transla- This group was based at the General tion into Greek of some of the (less Science Dept of the National Techni- demanding) works of Schlick (his Back in Athens, a group of philoso- cal University of Athens (NTUA) and London Lectures on Form and Con- phers of social science and scientists its core were Aristedes Baltas, Kostas tent) and Carnap. He was quite (most notably Demetris Dimitrakos Gavroglu, Aris Koutoungos and Pan- ahead of his time in discerning a cer- and Costas Krimbas) formed in 1983 telis Nikolakopoulos (1952-2001). tain Kantian element in the work of the Group of Critical and Scientific This group was joined by the physi- Carnap; but little on this was pub- Thought: Karl Popper and had regu- cist Giorgos Goudaroulis (1945- lished outside the informative intro- lar seminars. Popper’s falsification-

4. PAGE (OF 12)! PHILOSOPHY OF SCIENCE IN GREECE: PAST, PRESENT AND FUTURE Stathis Psillos

1996) of the School of Engineering in the Boston Studies in the Philosophy phi; in 1998 (The History and Phi- Thessaloniki, who translated into of Science. losophy of Greek Medical Traditions Greek Feyerabend’s Against Method from Hippocrates to Harvey, held at in 1985. In the middle of 1980s, the Greek at the University of Athens); in 2000 Gavroglu and Goudaroulis founded a logician Dionysis Anapolitanos came (Experience and Knowledge, held at book-series on epistemology and back from Pittsburgh with a prize- the University of Crete); and in 2003 philosophy of science with a small winning PhD on Leibniz and the (Proof and Demonstration in Phi- independent publisher, in which the Continuum Hypothesis, which was losophy and Science, in Delphi). translations of Kuhn, Lakatos and directed by Wilfrid Sellars. Anapoli- Feyerabend as well as some mono- tanos brought back with him the At the end of the 1980s, a number of graphs by Greek authors appeared. possibility of a link with the Pitts- younger people with links to the The fact that Popper, Kuhn, Lakatos burg Center for Philosophy of Sci- NTUA group (Arabatzis, Arageorgis, and co became popular in Greece at ence. So around the middle of 1980s, Karakostas, Psillos) went to the US a time when they had started losing there was a critical mass of mostly (Princeton, Pittsburgh) and the UK their centrality in the Anglo- philosophically-minded scientists (Cambridge, London) and completed American scene explains (at least with a solid interest in history and PhDs in history and philosophy of partly) the tendency towards general philosophy of science. science. All of them returned to philosophy of science that prevailed, It was in this period that systematic Greece by the end of 1990s and got and is still dominant, in Greece. research papers in philosophy of sci- academic posts. With them, we have ence written by Greeks started to a second generation of Greek phi- A new law governing the universities appear in international journals and losophers of science. was voted in the Parliament in 1982, collections. A good sample of the which rendered the Greek higher state of Greek philosophy of science By the early years of the last decade education far more democratic and towards the end of the 80s can be of the twentieth century, a philoso- egalitarian. Younger and promising found in the book Greek Studies in phy of science community with good people could now take junior posts Philosophy and History of Science research credentials and interna- in the university and the creation of (in Boston Studies in the Philosophy tional links had grown roots. With new disciplines was encouraged. of Science, 1990). them, the idea of a Department of In this new setting, the NTUA group Philosophy and History of Science took an important step towards the The link between the emerging had started to ripen. The driving consolidation of history and philoso- Greek community and the Pittsburgh force behind the creation of this de- phy of science in Greece, by found- Center came to fruition and proved partment was Anapolitanos, who ing, in 1982, a graduate programme instrumental for the institutional should be credited not only with the in HPS, which was accompanied by a establishment of philosophy of sci- vision that the discipline would series of seminars and workshops ence in Greece. In 1992, Jerry Mas- flourish with the presence of a uni- with foreign academics. sey (the then director of the Pitts- versity department, but also with the A number of younger persons were burgh Center) entrusted the Greek masterly execution of the plan. educated in HPS in this programme. community with the organisation of Various contingencies played, as al- The NTUA group organised in 1986 the second international conference ways, a key role. One of them was in Thessaloniki a major international of the Center’s fellows, which took that the then Rector of the Univer- conference on Lakatos titled: ‘Criti- place in Athens. Since then, there sity of Athens, Petros Gemptos, was cism and the Growth of Knowledge: have been four Athens-Pittsburgh an economist and lawyer very much Twenty years after’, the proceedings international conferences in 1996 imbued in the philosophy of the so- of which were published in 1989 in (The Problem of Anthropomorphism cial sciences. Other existing groups in Science and Philosophy, in Del- and individuals, like the NTUA

5. PAGE (OF 12)! PHILOSOPHY OF SCIENCE IN GREECE: PAST, PRESENT AND FUTURE Stathis Psillos group, Christodoulidis and Krimbas During the almost twenty years of its researchers) in scientific realism (one geneticist and one historian of existence, the PHS dept of the Uni- (Psillos), the metaphysics of science biology), supported this endeavour versity of Athens has grown from (Psillos, Karakostas), philosophy of wholeheartedly. strength to strength. Having the view physics (Karakostas), the ancient For various reasons that had mostly that philosophy of science is an inte- philosophy and science (Ieorodiak- to do with the opposition of the Divi- gral part of philosophy, it has ac- onou, Kalligas), conceptual change sion of traditional philosophy in the quired some important strengths in (Arabatzis, Kindi), philosophy of University of Athens, the department analytic philosophy, ancient phi- maths & logic (Anapolitanos, Dimi- was dubbed Dept of Methodology, losophy, logic, epistemology and tracopoulos) and the philosophy of History and Theory of Science metaphysics, appointing a number of economics (Mantzavinos). (though in English the offi- The department has also cial title is Dept of Philoso- lively research groups in phy and History of Sci- the history of science (led ence). It was officially by Gavroglu and Demetris launched in 1992 (with a Dialetis), in the cognitive unanimous decision of the science (led by Stella Senate of the University of Vosniadou) and in the his- Athens) and admitted its tory and philosophy of the first undergraduates in the social sciences. It is note- academic year 1994-95. A worthy that members of the year later, the PHS dept of dept have authored 11 the University of Athens books (published by inter- and the Humanities Divi- national presses) and have sion of the NTUA estab- edited another 35 books lished a joint graduate pro- (again published by inter- gramme in History and national presses). In 2010, Philosophy of Science and the dept organised the first Technology, with a PhD Greek Congress of Philoso- strand. This graduate pro- phy of Science, with over gramme has become one of 120 contributed papers and the focal points of philoso- over 200 participants. In phy of science in Greece, the end of the same year, with numerous graduate the dept went through a students, academic visitors, process of evaluation by an conferences and other ac- Neusis. Biannual Journal for the History and Philosophy of international team of phi- tivities. What is now a third Science and Technology, Issue 18 (2009), dedicated to the losophers and was deemed history of technology. generation of Greek phi- to be a centre of excellence losophers of science have in philosophical research in excellent younger philosophers who been educated in this programme. In Greece. The evaluation report (in did their PhDs in analytic philosophy 1996, a new History and Philosophy English) can be accessed at mostly in the UK. What may be of Science journal was established— http://www.adip.gr/eks/MITHE%2 called the British School of Philoso- Neusis—which has become the vehi- 0Report%20Final%20(2).pdf. phy is now a major force in the cle through which most philosophi- Greek philosophical scene. The dept cal research in Greece (and in Greek) Philosophy of science has also grown has research groups (whose mem- is disseminated. in the Division of Humanities of bers are post-doctoral and doctoral

6. PAGE (OF 12)! PHILOSOPHY OF SCIENCE IN GREECE: PAST, PRESENT AND FUTURE Stathis Psillos

NTUA, under the leadership of Bal- of science, made mostly of home- doctoral researchers publish in in- tas, who was recently awarded a grown PhDs. There are, to be sure, a ternational journals and have their prestigious award of excellence in few doctoral students who currently papers accepted for presentation in teaching and research. In the Dept of finish promising dissertations major (refereed) internationals con- Philosophy and Education in the abroad and can help carry the torch ferences. Aristotle University of Thessaloniki forward. But it is my firm belief that Philosophy of science in Greece can there is a dynamic group of post- the future of the community lies in gain by strengthening the links doctoral researchers, led by Demetra its ability to consistently produce among the various research groups Sfendoni-Mentzou (who did her PhD home-grown PhDs of high quality in Greek universities and by sharp- on the philosophy of Charles Peirce and international standards. The ening its international profile and under Mourelos in the early 1980s). good news is that we have been on orientation. The upcoming EPSA11 This group has focused its research the way to achieve this, as is evinced conference in Athens is a major step on Aristotle’s philosophy and sci- by the fact that, with increasing pace in this direction. I am sure there are ence, with a special interest in Aris- and consistency, doctoral and post- more to come. totle’s possible relevance to modern science. Kalfas, who after many years in the University of Crete is now in Thessaloniki, has shifted his atten- tion to ancient Greek philosophy and science.

Outside Athens and Thessaloniki, there is a pocket of interest in the philosophy of science in the Univer- sity of Crete (George Roussopoulos on Logical Empiricism, and Voula Tsinorema on bioethics). In one way or another, philosophy of science has grown roots in all philosophy de- partments and divisions of Greek universities. There is no doubt that philosophy of science in Greece has come of age. A selection of publications by Greek philosophers and historians of science What lies ahead in the future? The prospects of philosophy of science in Greece hung on the currently emerging third generation of philosophers

ABOUT THE AUTHOR Stathis Psillos is Professor of Philosophy of Science at the University of Athens, Greece. He holds a University Degree in Physics (University of Patras, Greece), an MSc in History and Philosophy of Science (University of London, Kings College) and a PhD in Phi- losophy of Science (University of London). He has published on scientiﬁc realism, causation, explanation and the history of philosophy of science.

Personal Website: http://old.phs.uoa.gr/~psillos/

7. PAGE (OF 12) ! EPSA Newsletter Vol. I, Issue 2 September 2011

Editor: Friedrich Stadler | Assistant Editor: Daniel Kuby

A REVIVAL OF INTE- between HPS remained strong, as cently, an international committee of GRATED HISTORY AND testified to by the work of Alexander historians and philosophers of sci- PHILOSOPHY OF SCI- Koyré, Georges Canguilhem, and ence was formed with the aim to ad- Michel Foucault, among others. vance the integration of the two ENCE In the German and, especially, An- fields. For that purpose, the commit- Theodore Arabatzis glophone academic world, on the tee has launched a series of confer- other hand, the relationship between ences, where a rich variety of ap- HPS went through several phases: proaches in integrated HPS has al- from a respectful mutual indiffer- ready been presented. The first three Integrated history and philosophy of ence in the 1940s and 1950s, conferences in the series were hosted science (HPS) has a notable past, through a troubled rapprochement by American Institutions with estab- going back to the 19th century. Wil- in the 1960s and 1970s (in the wake lished traditions in HPS: the Univer- liam Whewell, Ernst Mach, and Pi- of the historicist turn in philosophy sity of Pittsburgh, the University of erre Duhem, to mention three great of science), to an awkward and not Notre Dame, and the University of 19th century scholars, preached and always peaceful co-existence in the Indiana. The next conference in the practiced a historically oriented phi- 1980s and 1990s. series will take place in Europe and losophy of science and a philosophi- There are encouraging signs though will be hosted by the Department of cally inclined history of science. In that the pendulum has started to Philosophy and History of Science at 20th century France the connection swing in the opposite direction. Re- the University of Athens:

Integrated History and Philosophy of Science - &HPS4 Department of Philosophy and History of Science, University of Athens, Greece March 15-18, 2012 http://conferences.phs.uoa.gr/andhps/

Keynote speakers: Jed Z. Buchwald (California Institute of Technology) Thomas Ryckman (Stanford University)

ABOUT THE AUTHOR Theodore Arabatzis is Associate Professor of History and Philosophy of the Physical Sciences & Technology at the University of Athens, Greece. He holds an MSc in Elec- trical Engineering (Aristotle University of Thessaloniki), an MA in History of Science (University of Princeton) and a PhD in History of Science (Princeton University). His historical work has focused on late 19th and early 20th century physics and chemistry. He has also written on philosophical issues concerning conceptual change, scientiﬁc realism and experimentation. Personal Website: http://old.phs.uoa.gr/node.php?n=staff_viewproﬁle&lang=en&id=2

Editor: Friedrich Stadler | Assistant Editor: Daniel Kuby

WHAT THE BAYESIAN the fields it permeates, and this has theory, while others, like Howson DECISION THEORIST contributed to make its definition and Urbach (1993), have rejected COULD TELL THE elusive. A glance at epistemology, these arguments and exclusively re- philosophy of science, decision the- lied on non-pragmatic ones. BAYESIAN PHILOSO- ory, statistics, and computer science, Still others, like Joyce (1999), have a PHER testifies to differences both in con- relatively liberal view of the two Philippe Mongin tent and emphasis. styles of justification of probability and conditioning. By and large, there are two main Bayesian tenets, i.e., that (i) uncer- The present lecture is concerned Extended abstract of the 1st EPSA tainties should be captured in terms with this major philosophical con- Lecture given at the 14th CLMPS in of probability functions, and (ii) the flict, but it would be too bold to Nancy (France), 19-26 July 2011. incoming information in terms of sketch a solution within its scope, conditioning these functions, but the and we are content with clarifying a emphasis on each tenet varies with particular set of pragmatic argu- the field, and there is a third tenet ments, leaving the other pragmatic that is clearly optional, i.e., that (iii) and non-pragmatic arguments aside. decisions are to be made in accor- We focus on a severe complication of dance to the expected utility (EU) EU theory, state-dependence, which rule and its axiomatic foundations. is famous among Bayesian decision This last claim is essential to all theorists but regrettably much lesser Bayesian decision theorists and stat- known to Bayesian philosophers - isticians, but by no means to all hence the title for the lecture. Bayesian philosophers. We first explain the difficulties that Arguments for (i) and (ii) can be state-dependence raises for Bayesian classified as pragmatic or non- decision theory, second dramatise pragmatic, depending on whether or them and show that they also not they go through (iii) to reach threaten Bayesian philosophy, and http://www.clmps2011.org their aim. Philosophers like Earman third and last, after reviewing alter- (1992) or Maher (1993) have de- native suggestions, account for some A pervasive doctrine of both science fended pragmatic arguments bor- decision-theoretic work that aims at and philosophy, Bayesianism is not rowed from, or based on, decision removing them. conceived of in the same way in all

9. PAGE (OF 12) ◆ Mongin, Philippe: “What the Bayesian Decision Theorist could tell the Bayesian Philosopher”, epsa-Newsletter Vol. 1, No. 2, © 2011, pp. 9–11. WHAT THE BAYESIAN DECISION THEORIST COULD TELL THE BAYESIAN PHILOSOPHER Philippe Mongin

The conclusion favours the prag- Epistemic agents, and typically sci- economists, who can bear with (P3) matic against the non-pragmatic entists, in effect make choices under and (P4) in various applications, but camp within the limits of the chosen uncertainty, and Savage's system not really those of pragmatic Bayes- set of arguments. was meant to instruct pragmatic ian philosophers, who are after uni- Bayesian philosophers on how they versally valid norms of rationality. To implement the first part of the should formalise these choices. Option 2 is discussed in terms of programme, we revisit the master- However, as we claim, neither (P3) Savage's own examples in the Foun- piece of Bayesian decision theory, nor perhaps (P4) should be assumed dations and rebutted as being spuri- i.e., Savage's Foundations of Statis- in the epistemic or scientific context. ous. tics (1972), in a somewhat unusual We emphasise that state-dependence We also discard Option 3 on the way. Instead of centring on the blocks the derivation not only of (i) ground that Jeffrey's system avoids "sure-thing principle" (P2), as most but also of (ii) - a crucial point about the problem of state-dependence commentators have done, we em- Bayesian revision that has often es- simply because it lacks the capacity phasise postulates (P3) and (P4), caped notice. of expressing it. explaining how they capture the As we further argue, there are four Option 4 is our favourite one, and we state-independence assumption that main options to circumvent the diffi- give a flavour of how post-Sava- the agent's preferences do not vary culties: geans, like Karni (1985, 1996) and across states or events of the world. Option 1 is to cut one's losses and collaborators (including this writer, We also explain why Savage needs restrict the application domain of see Karni and Mongin, 2000), have this assumption in order to translate Savage's theory to the cases covered attempted to overcome the problem. the agent's preferences between his by (P3) and (P4). Essentially, they require the agent to possible acts into a satisfactory EU Option 2, which is Savage's, consists express preferences across states of representation, i.e., one in which the in arguing that decision problems the world, hence counterfactual probability measure is uniquely well- can always be given a state- preferences, on top of those ex- defined. independent form by an appropriate pressed between possible courses of It is easy to argue that the opposite redefinition of states, consequences actions, which are the only ones con- assumption of state-dependence and acts. sidered by Savage and classical deci- captures a natural psychological atti- Option 3 is to move to Jeffrey's sion theorists. tude and no irrationality at all. (1983) competing system. Both the old and the new sets of Hence Savage fails short of his pro- Option 4 exploits some technical preferences are subjected to postu- gramme, which was to apply the results of post-Savagian EU theory, lates, like (P2), which can standardly requisites of practical rationality, which require more preference com- be interpreted in terms of practical and nothing else, in order to recover parisons on the agent's part, and by rationality, and they are connected the three tenets (i), (ii), and (iii). suitably defined new postulates, between themselves by a specific At this stage, we provisionally side manage to accommodate state- coherence condition, which can ar- with those non-pragmatic philoso- dependence while delivering a guably be interpreted along the same phers who have interpreted Savage's uniquely well-defined probability line. results disparagingly. measure. The result is that (P3) and (P4) are dispensed with, but owing to the The second part of the lecture begins The third and last part of the lecture added material, a EU representation by arguing that Bayesian episte- critically discusses these four pro- nonetheless exists with the desirable mologists and philosophers of sci- posals: property that the probability meas- ence cannot escape the difficulties of Option 1 is described as being sound ure is uniquely well-defined. That is state-dependence. and realistic, but low-profile. It can to say, the new work obtains (i) from fit the needs of insurance or financial (iii) without Savage's unpalatable

10. PAGE (OF 12 )! WHAT THE BAYESIAN DECISION THEORIST COULD TELL THE BAYESIAN PHILOSOPHER Philippe Mongin restrictions; it can be checked that that seems available to date for a not all Bayesian philosophers would (ii) also follows. pragmatic foundation of probability agree with us, we hope to have con- and conditioning. At this stage of the vinced them that contemporary In spite or because of its complexity, lecture, we side with the pragmatic Bayesian decision theory can be an this work provides the best scheme camp against the other, and even if inspiring source.

Literature Earman, J. (1992), Bayes or Bust? A Critical Examina- Karni, E. (1996), "Probabilities and Beliefs", Journal of tion of Bayesian Confirmation Theory, Cambridge, Risk and Uncertainty, 13, p. 249--262. Mass., The MIT Press. Karni, E. et P. Mongin (2000), "On the Determination Howson, C. and P. Urbach (1993), Scientific Reasoning, of Subjective Probability by Choice, Management Open Court. Science, 46, p. 233--248. Jeffrey, R. (1965), The Logic of Decision, Chicago, Chi- Maher, P.(1993), Betting on Theories, Cambridge, Cam- cago University Press (2nd ed., 1983). bridge University Press. Joyce, J.M. (1999), The Foundations of Causal Decision Savage, L.J. (1954), The Foundations of Statistics, New Theory, Cambridge, Cambridge University Press. York, Dover Publications (2nd ed. 1972). Karni, E. (1985), Decision Making Under Uncertainty. The Case of State-Dependent Preferences, Cam- bridge, Mass., Harvard University Press.

ABOUT THE AUTHOR Philippe Mongin is Senior Research Fellow at the Centre National de la Recherche Scientiﬁque (CNRS) and Professor of Economics and Philosophy at the HEC School of Management, Paris. He hold a a BA in Political Science, an MA in Philosophy and a Ph. D. in Social Sciences (Ecole des Hautes Etudes en Sciences Sociales). He has published on the philosophy of economics and social sciences, particularly on decision theory and nor- mative economics. Personal Website: https://studies2.hec.fr/jahia/Jahia/mongin

11. PAGE (OF 12 ) ! A NOTE FROM THE This means you will receive three It goes without saying that Sprin- PUBLISHER SPRINGER e-mails per year from Springer ger will not use your e-mail for with the links to the articles of other commercial mails and that Ties Nijssen EJPS. you can unsubscribe if you do not wish to receive this alert anymore. If you like the service, I would ad- vise you to register under 'My Dear members of EPSA, Springer' via springer.com. This will enable you to track Journals the second issue of EJPS is out, and Books in the areas of your in- and I trust you will have seen that terest, and also enable you to track the quality of the articles reflects your articles during the publishing the mission and ambition of your process. society. Should you have any questions To keep you informed about all about this service or about Sprin- new issues, the board had granted ger, please come and see me during Springer the right to send you Ta- the EPSA11 conference in Athens ble of Content Alerts of future is- or drop me an e-mail: sues of EJPS. [email protected]

ABOUT THE AUTHOR Ties Nijssen is Publishing Editor at Springer for History and Philosophy of Science & Logic.

Personal Website: http://www.springer.com/philosophy?SGWID=0-40385-19-675410-0