The Weekly/Texas Tribune insider poll for the week of December 16

INSIDE INTELLIGENCE: The Texas Weekly/Texas Tribune insider poll for 16 December 2013

INSIDE INTELLIGENCE: The Texas Weekly/Texas Tribune insider poll for 16 December 2013 Will this be a year for the insurgents or the establishment in the Republican primaries?

• "Too uncertain to predict, but the • "The Tea Party has become the party process will be interesting. It remains of anti-business -- and that dog don't to be seen how much the moderates hunt in Texas." will gain support as part of the effort to not let the opportunities the • "The $ folks are tired of the Democrats have handed them go to unpredictability of the insurgents and waste in fighting over who is the most will support establishment conservative." candidates. Then again establishment voters better show up at for the • "I'm the quintessential 'I don't know' primary!" answer… I do, however, firmly believe this is the watershed election • "Most establishment Rs will prevail, that will answer the question as to but insurgents will relish their who owns the primary voters in the victories. More attention will be paid Texas GOP." to the successful insurgencies, though they won't take over the party." • "They hold off the torch and pitchfork mob and start to reassert • "Like always, it'll be a mixed bag some semblance of sanity." depending on the candidates in each race." • "The 'Insurgents' are about to be dealt a blow to their cause. They have • "What is an insurgent? What is overplayed their hand since last establishment?" election cycle." • "The insurgents are spread too thin. • "Some of both" They may pick off one or two but the establishment is watching its • "The business community has been candidates carefully and taking all talk up to this point. Their concern credible challenges seriously." has not resulted in action. They either need to put up or watch our Open For • "Establishment. My clicker isn't Business state become a joke." clicking, so I am typing instead."

• "Big turnout of 1.6 million • "The party needs to understand that 'insurblisment' voters." to stay viable, it must maintain a sense of democracy to listen, compromise • "Texas is doing well relative to rest and legislate with a better of the country, with no major understanding of what's good for the insurgent push noticeable except in state and the country. The party will isolated offices." not survive in the future being closed minded." • "Normal people are getting tired of guerilla politics" • "2014 will be a year full of surprises."

INSIDE INTELLIGENCE: The Texas Weekly/Texas Tribune insider poll for 16 December 2013 • "If the insurgents win one more • "Both sides will be victorious in time, they WILL be the different races." establishment." • "Some establishment loses would be • "Tired of the MQS special interest nice. If I could have one thing from drones. NO is not a solution for the Santa it would be a Harris county state." Republican party chair who will actually do something? If the same do • "Like a pack of wild hungry wolves, nothing leader remains the place will they'll end up eating each other." be bluer than Elvis' blue suede shoes."

• "How is a sitting elected official • "Are you kidding?" NOT part of the establishment in some way? Taking the Lite Guv and • "The goal is to win elections. AG races as an example, each Republicans know that. They will candidate holds and has held for quite back winners -- who are mostly a few years now an office--they've establishment. Of course, there are a been around the block before. How few flagrant, anti-Tea Party moderates are they outsiders?" who should worry."

• "If by insurgent you mean, Steve • "It seems like the establishment has Stockman, then let's call it an begun to organize and rally." establishment year." • "Establishment will blow out the • "Unless the Texas Republican Party insurgents.... if they don't they are is suicidal, it will purge itself of the through...." Young Conservatives of Texas ilk that came in last session. If Representative • "All politics is local so I suspect it Stickland is the future of the Texas will be some of both depending on the GOP, the end is nigh." local conditions on the ground."

• "Fingers crossed" • "It's time for the pro-business Republicans to stand up and be • "They are more angry now than counted." they were two years ago." • "Tea party fatigue (sent in too many • "There are so few 'establishment' clowns)" Republicans left, I'm not sure the question works."

Does Steve Stockman pose a serious threat to in the 2014 primary for U.S. Senate?

• "If he does, crazy has legitimately • "This time two years ago, most of us overtaken the GOP in Texas" would not have thought that was a contender."

INSIDE INTELLIGENCE: The Texas Weekly/Texas Tribune insider poll for 16 December 2013 • "Not saying he wins, but he can be a • "Looking at definite run-off with serious threat." Stockman given # of challengers in Primary." • "Does Santa wear a red hat?" • "Damaged goods." • "Cornyn ultimately wins but it's scary." • "Depends on whether he can raise money and how many crazies will • "Is this a serious question?" believe his Kool-Aid. I think Cornyn will pull it out but don't ever deny • "Will get 30% as protest vote" Stockman's deceptive tactics in running a campaign. In his last • "The only reason he is running for congressional race, he used 'Re-elect Senate is because of the FEC is about Steve Stockman' yard signs in a to come hard on him. His only salvo is district that was just created." to make himself the victim. Sadly, the Tea Party is about to fall for yet • "No. And thankfully he is running another one of his cons. I'm looking for re-election to House. No matter forward to what $1 million of op- who wins CD-36, it will be an research will do to him." improvement."

• "And poses a threat to Freedom • "Please, and I'm a Republican" Works and Cruz who look like armadillos trying to figure out how to • "Irritant to Cornyn, but no real cross the road." threat."

• "Cornyn has been in hiding all year, • "Steve Stockman brings new hoping to avoid this situation. Will he meaning to the term 'goofball.'" continue to hide, try to ignore Stockman, refuse to debate, avoid tea • "He's way beyond Ted Cruz. In fact, party events? Will the press allow just based on some of his public Cornyn's well-financed campaign to comments on various national issues plant stories trashing Stockman he seems to be out of touch with the without Cornyn's hands being seen in 'normal' Tea party folks, if even there them? Remember, Cornyn is an is a 'normal' margin in that political advocate of openness and party." transparency, so he's going to have an uncomfortable three-four months. • "Stockman himself isn't a threat, but Stockman may get a third of the vote outside forces--like the Senate if he effectively mobilizes the base Conservatives Fund and anger towards Washington." FreedomWorks--might potentially pose a threat." • "No, but the entertainment value of his campaign will be fun to watch!" • "Silver lining of Stockman opposing Cornyn: we soon may be able to call • "In theory, one can't run a credible Doug Centilli, 'Congressman.'" statewide campaign without money."

INSIDE INTELLIGENCE: The Texas Weekly/Texas Tribune insider poll for 16 December 2013 • "He got in too late and without next November and rally behind the consulting his base. And he's crazy." only conservative in the race who can actually win in the fall." • "Many a far righter thought 'If the crassly (and brilliantly) opportunistic • "WHO in whoville? Oh, I'm sorry Ted Cruz can do it...' Only one far was watching the Grinch." righter had the guts to take a crack of his own. Gotta respect his spine, even • "After the media decides there is no if the policy and words send shivers more of a story here than there is with down my spine." any candidate who enters a big race with only a few dollars, it will be • "He will force Cornyn to spend over." more money, but Stockman is not a Ted Cruz." • "Steve Stockman poses a serious threat to people who take politics • "Stockman’s exiting congress with seriously. That guy is going to nothing to lose." entertain us for a couple months."

• "Anyone who says and does with no • "He will say anything at anytime regard for the truth is a danger to and this time will hopefully be anyone." exposed as the person he is. He is a bomb thrower of the worst kind since • "Anybody but Cornyn." none of them are based on truth."

• "Not a serious threat but Senator • "Not even close to a threat.... more Cornyn will have to spend money in like a whine!!" the primary that could otherwise go towards defeating David Alameel in • "LOL" November. Republican primary voters need to seriously consider the • "Speaking of clowns" likelihood of Stockman or any of the other challengers being able to defeat • "Except Big John and his team will a well funded conservative Democrat have 10 weeks of ulcers..."

Which incumbents (for any offices in Texas) are most likely to lose their seats in 2014?

• "Stickland" • "Phil Johnson, Texas Supreme Court" • "Lon Burnam" • "Diane Patrick… Tarrant County • "Dewhurst" has gone the way of nut-ville."

• "Cornyn" • ""

• "Dewhurst." • "Stickland; Schaefer; Dewhurst"

INSIDE INTELLIGENCE: The Texas Weekly/Texas Tribune insider poll for 16 December 2013 • "Congressman Pete Gallegos and • "; " State Representative Phil Cortez" • "No one" • "Dewhurst and Carona." • "David Dewhurst" • "Dewhurst; Seliger; Carona" • "Carona, Lt Gov.'" • "David Dewhurst" • "The truth is that most • "Dewhurst" establishment incumbents are safe - even the one's who are most often • "JM Lozano will face a well funded cited as vulnerable. They're polling Democrat challenger. This race will these races and know what has to be foreshadow the future of Texas done to keep good members in office." elections." • "Senator Campbell and possibly • "Lt. Governor Dewhurst" Carona"

• "Dewhurst" • "Dewhurst, but don't bet against him. Congressman Gallego will have a • "Possibly Schaefer, JD Sheffield and tough time, as well as Matt Shafer and Stickland in the House. Harper Brown Mary Gonzalez." is on the edge. There could be some changes in El Paso especially Naomi • "Carter" Gonzalez. Donna Campbell could have a run for her money with Bexar • "Dewhurst, J.D. Sheffield" County's Novak." • "Stickland" • "The Dew." • "Dewhurst (if he's not careful)." • "Stickland, Charles Perry, Marisa Marquez" • "Why... the emperor with no clothes... of course.." • "Linda Harper Brown" • "Sheffield" • "Dewhurst has to be at the top given his loss to Cruz." • "Reynolds, S. Carter. Moody, Keffer, J.D. Sheffield, Vo, Stephenson" • "Very few if any in the legislature because so many cast CYA votes!" • "Dewhurst"

• "Dewhurst." • "Dewhurst; Rep Carter"

• "Don't want to say because I don't • "David Dewhurst" want it to be a self fulfilling prophecy." • "Dewhurst, Stickland"

• "John Carona"

INSIDE INTELLIGENCE: The Texas Weekly/Texas Tribune insider poll for 16 December 2013 • "J.M Lozano, Linda Harper Brown • "Don't know..." and Kenneth Sheets" • "Ralph Sheffield - name confusion." • "Linda Harper Brown; David Dewhurst; Donna Campbell" • "Dewhurst"

• "Dewhurst" • "Rep. Stefani Carter, Rep. Naomi Gonzalez, Rep. Diane Patrick, Rep. • "Dewhurst; Stickland" Jonathan Stickland"

• "Dewhurst" • "lt gov"

• "Texas Supreme Court" • "Matt Schaeffer"

• "Schaefer; JD Sheffield; Stickland; • "Jim Keffer" Ratliff; Keffer; Dewhurst" • "J.D. Sheffield; Linda Harper- • "Rep. Mary Gonzalez; Rep. Naomi Brown; Donna Campbell; Ralph Hall; Gonzalez; Rep. Sheffield; Rep Lon Burnam; Naomi Gonzalez; Kel Giddings; Rep. Toni Price" Seliger; David Dewhurst"

• "Donna Campbell, J.D.Sheffield, Lon • "Naomi Gonzalez, Bennett Ratliff Burnam; Stefani Carter" and David Dewhurst."

• "Lite Guv" • "Jim Keffer and "

• "Senator John Carona; Rep. Linda • "Carona, Keffer, Sessions, Cornyn" Harper-Brown" • "Dewhurst, even though he has led • "Carona seems especially the Senate through a few of the most vulnerable." conservative legislatures."

• "Is it still accurate to call Stefani • ", Phil Johnson, Jeff Carter an 'incumbent'?" Brown"

• "John Carona" • "David Dewhurst"

• "Dewhurst" • "Diane Patrick"

• "Stickland, Stickland, and - oh yeah - • "Supreme Court justices are all big Stickland" targets for the Democrats."

• "Lt. Gov. Dewhurst; Reps. Burkett, • "Dewhurst." Sheets and Loyoza" • "Governor Perry. Oh wait, he isn't • "Dewhurst" running. I must be on autopilot."

INSIDE INTELLIGENCE: The Texas Weekly/Texas Tribune insider poll for 16 December 2013 • "None at this time" • "David Dewhurst"

• "Dewhurst" • "Cornyn. He cannot convince the crazies that he's one of them." • "Matt Schaefer" • "Dewhurst, Stickland, Schaefer" • "Dewhurst" • "Dewhurst" • "Stickland" • "Lt. Governor" • "David Dewhurst" • "Dewhurst has a big challenge, as • "Fake Tea Partiers in House districts does Sen. Carona." close to major cities facing business- minded Republican challengers - • "Carona, Keffer, Schaefer, Lozano" Stefani Carter" • "David Dewhurst" • "Too early to tell; Dewhurst on everyone's list" • "Dewhurst"

• "Dewhurst" • "David Dewhurst"

What did you think was the biggest surprise in this year’s candidate filings?

• "Steve Stockman v Cornyn; • "The biggest opponent to Seliger" surprise/disappointment is that someone like Van Taylor will be a • "Stockman" new state senator barring a Libertarian miracle." • "Stockman" • "The biggest surprise was who • "Stockman is an obvious answer, didn't get an opponent...a lot of but certainly others were ready to freshman get a free pass. Not good." immediately take advantage of the opportunity." • "Bexar County Commissioner challenging County Judge" • "Stockman; Talton" • "Stockman; Talton" • "That Charlie Geren did NOT get an opponent… what was MQS thinking? • "Stockman" Tarrant County? They should have flooded him with opponents." • "Stockman"

• "Stockman" • "Larry Meyers for Supreme Court"

INSIDE INTELLIGENCE: The Texas Weekly/Texas Tribune insider poll for 16 December 2013 • "Stockman running against Cornyn" • "Stockman"

• "I was surprised the Texas GOP took • "Larry Meyers. But he is totally nuts action on extending the filing deadline so it probably should not have been" for Stockman's congressional seat. It was the right thing to do." • "Stockman and no Pauken"

• "Judge Larry Meyers" • "Stockman"

• "Stockman coming from nowhere to • "Stockman" file against Cornyn. No real competitor." • "Judge Meyers filing as a D."

• "Stockman and Merritt." • "The good fortune of Stockman trying to take his gig from the village • "Not much surprises me, but Steve to statewide." Toth for Senate seems like a stretch." • "Van de Putte for LT. Gov." • "Stockman" • "Larry Meyers filing as a D" • "So many Libertarians." • "The number of down ballot • "No qualified Comptroller democratic challenges to incumbent candidates" republican county office holders- intended to drive turn out for • "Huffines v. Carona" democrats"

• "Apparently Mr. Stockman didn't • "Stockman. I thought it would be like Washington, so a good exit Gohmert. But I was more surprised strategy would be to run that only the Republicans could unsuccessfully in 2014 for statewide extend the filing deadline, particularly office." since there were already other candidates on their ballot." • "Stockman vs. Cornyn" • "Cornyn opponent" • "Beebe can't learn." • "Stockman deciding to go down in • "Lawrence Meyers switching parties flames" for a statewide race. We're still a red state. Guess he's ready to give up • "Stockman" public service as a living." • "Mike Canon taking on Sen. Seliger." • " giving a safe Senate seat to the Republicans in order to • "Judge Larry Meyers changing from feed her ego in what will be a R on Court of Criminal Appeals to D disastrous campaign for her." running for Supreme Court... followed by Stockman going into the U.S. • "Stockman" Senate race at the last minute"

INSIDE INTELLIGENCE: The Texas Weekly/Texas Tribune insider poll for 16 December 2013 • "Harvey Hilderbran did NOT guns of the House don't believe, why switch to agriculture commissioner" should the rest of us?"

• "Stockman" • "Stockman"

• "The weak Ag Commish field" • "Stockman"

• "Democrats didn't field a stronger • "Talton" slate." • "Dens gained a statewide seat, at • "Stockman" least temporarily."

• "Stockman" • "Stockman vs. Cornyn Senate primary race; Straus vs. Beebe House • "Stockman; Republican trial lawyers primary race" for Texas Supremes" • "Robert Talton" • "What surprise? Everyone's been campaigning for higher office since • "Stockman" 2012." • "None." • "Stockman for Senate" • "Stockman running against • "Stockman" Cornyn."

• "Rep. Steve Stockman filing against • "Talton trying to make a come back. Senator Cornyn." Tanned, rested but not ready for this kind of position. And, Dewhurst not • "Wendy Davis. Just kidding--I retiring on top…sort of." wanted to see if you were paying attention..." • "Steve Stockman for US Senate."

• "That Dewhurst didn't reconsider • "Stockman" and file for Governor - there are fewer candidates in that primary than in his • "Stockman's 12th hour switcharoo." own." • "Stockman" • "Stockman filing for senate." • "Stockman, without question." • "Stockman" • "Stockman" • "Stockman" • "Meyers switching from R to D and • "Wendy Davis" challenging Hecht. Who saw that coming?" • "The lack of depth of the Democratic candidates past Senators Davis and • "Van de Putte running for Lite Guv." Van de Putte. If the young Democratic

INSIDE INTELLIGENCE: The Texas Weekly/Texas Tribune insider poll for 16 December 2013 • "Leticia" • "Robert Talton vs. Nathan Hecht"

• "Stockman" • "Stockman followed by the Republican judge who switched • "None" parties."

• "Stockman who really needed a job." • "Judge Meyers switching parties and running for the Supreme Court." • "Van de Putte for lt gov" • "Stockman" • "Doug Centilli..." • "Senator Van de Putte’s run for Lt. • "I think Stockman giving up his seat Gov" to make noise in the US Senate race takes the cake." • "Cornyn primary challenge"

• "" • "Stockman"

• "stockman" • "Stockman"

• ""

Our thanks to this week's participants: Gene Acuna, Cathie Adams, Brandon Aghamalian, Jenny Aghamalian, Victor Alcorta, Brandon Alderete, Clyde Alexander, George Allen, Charles Bailey, Tom Banning, Dave Beckwith, Amy Beneski, Andrew Biar, Allen Blakemore, Tom Blanton, Chris Britton, David Cabrales, Raif Calvert, Lydia Camarillo, Kerry Cammack, Thure Cannon, Corbin Casteel, William Chapman, Elna Christopher, Harold Cook, Kevin Cooper, Chad Crow, Beth Cubriel, Randy Cubriel, Denise Davis, Nora Del Bosque, Glenn Deshields, Holly DeShields, Tom Duffy, David Dunn, Richard Dyer, Jeff Eller, Jon Fisher, Norman Garza, Dominic Giarratani, Bruce Gibson, Stephanie Gibson, Eric Glenn, Kinnan Golemon, Daniel Gonzalez, Jim Grace, John Greytok, Clint Hackney, Anthony Haley, Wayne Hamilton, Bill Hammond, Richard Hardy, John Heasley, Ken Hodges, Kathy Hutto, Deborah Ingersoll, Richie Jackson, Jason Johnson, Mark Jones, Robert Jones, Lisa Kaufman, Tom Kleinworth, Dale Laine, Nick Lampson, Bill Lauderback, James LeBas, Luke Legate, Leslie Lemon, Ruben Longoria, Vilma Luna, Matt Mackowiak, Luke Marchant, Matt Matthews, Bryan Mayes, Dan McClung, Debra Medina, Robert Miller, Steve Minick, Bee Moorhead, Mike Moses, Steve Murdock, Keir Murray, Nelson Nease, Keats Norfleet, Pat Nugent, Todd Olsen, Nef Partida, Gardner Pate, Jerod Patterson, Robert Peeler, Tom Phillips, Wayne Pierce, Allen Place, Gary Polland, Jay Pritchard, , Tim Reeves, David Reynolds, Carl Richie, Kim Ross, Grant Ruckel, Jason Sabo, Luis Saenz, Andy Sansom, Jim Sartwelle, Barbara Schlief, Stan Schlueter, Bruce Scott, Robert Scott, Dan Shelley, Nancy Sims, Ed Small, Todd Smith, Leonard Spearman, Dennis Speight, Tom Spilman, Jason Stanford, Bill Stevens, Bob Strauser, Colin Strother, Michael Quinn Sullivan, Sherry

INSIDE INTELLIGENCE: The Texas Weekly/Texas Tribune insider poll for 16 December 2013 Sylvester, Gerard Torres, Trey Trainor, Ware Wendell, David White, Darren Whitehurst, Seth Winick, Angelo Zottarelli.

INSIDE INTELLIGENCE: The Texas Weekly/Texas Tribune insider poll for 16 December 2013