CONFRONTATION AND COOPERATION 1000 YEARS OF POLISH–GERMAN–RUSSIAN RELATIONS

V o l . II/2015: 22–26

DOI: 10.1515/conc-2015-0009

Piotr Madajczyk Polish Academy of Sciences, Poland

Germany Towards the Crisis in Ukraine

Key words: German – Russian relations, trade relations, Partnership Instrument, annexation of Crimea

Introduction The Russian – Georgian war in 2008 had not breached this image significantly, however afterwards The history of Russian – German relations differs there followed signals changing the attitude of the from the Russian – Polish one – despite the Second German public towards the policy of the Russian au- World War it is less encumbered with distrust. In Ger- thorities: the attitude towards non – government in- many, is identified with the USSR, and good stitutions, the issues of Pussy Riot and Greenpeace. In relations with it are treated as an indicator of success- 2014 the protests in Kiev were observed with friendly ful reconciliation after Second World War. Therefore attitude. They got positive publicity in German me- the attitude towards Russia has been positive for years, dia as the Ukrainian democratic movement. German additionally strengthened by “Gorbachevmania” and public was friendly towards peace demonstrations, the conviction (in the 21st century) that suiting the German ideal of peaceful transformation. will play a particular role in Partnership Instrument, This atmosphere, however, started to change when meant to lead Russia to western standards and values. barricades, burning tyres, and violence appeared also on the side of the demonstrators. The same mecha- nism was put into motion that made the Germans Pro-Russian or anti-Russian? perceive “Solidarity” not as the pursuit for freedom but the threat for peace and wellbeing of . In Germany the image of Russia was shaped to per- However, the accusations for fascism and anti- ceive it as a part, according to terminology by Karl Semitism as well as the descriptions of the Right Deutsch, continued by Alexander Wendt, of pluralis- Sector were not prevailing in German media, even tic commonwealth of security. There are conflicts in it, though the negative side of Maidan was presented but a war is not the rightful way of solving them. Such there as well. In “Der Spiegel” on 20th March 2014 an attitude resulted in liquidating numerous German it was stated quite rightly, that the German society science posts dealing with East Europe. They seemed was not outraged with the annexation of Crimea, the pointless in the 21st century. reaction was more like a shrug. According to the TNS Piotr Madajczyk: Germany Towards the Crisis in Ukraine 23 survey from March 2014, 54% of Germans supported German interest in Russia the approval of the annexation of Crimea by the West, 55% expressed the understanding for Putin for the fact In such an atmosphere the pressure put by business cir- that he treats Ukraine and Crimea as the part of the cles was of great significance, which had undoubtedly Russian zone of influence, and 60% considered the had influence on the reticence of German politicians in reactions of the West as appropriate. It was because their actions. In Russian – German contacts these were of the anxiety connected with the potential negative energetic resources and Gazprom that played the most influence of sanctions on the German economy and significant role. Especially since the Nord Stream was unemployment. completed, which connected Germany with Russia. It’s The feeling prevailing among the German society second line started to work at the end of 2012, provid- at that time could be described as insecurity. In a sur- ing it with the capacity of 55 billion m3. The share- vey commissioned by ARD and “Welt” it was noted holders are the owners of two German energy concerns that the number of people perceiving Germany in E.ON SE as well as Wintershall Holding GmbH, pos- a new role as an intermediary between NATO and sessing 15.5% of shares. Russia, as if Germany had not been the part of NATO, Business matters ought to be taken into consider- was increasing. This tendency was especially strong ation especially due to the crisis that has been present in eastern lands, where such a role was supported by for a few years. Yet, they should not be overestimated 60% of respondents. It was also accompanied with the and mistaking the reality with the image created by desire of deepening the European integration (65%), pressures of companies. In the EU scale the investments connected with the conviction that the expansion of in Russia make merely 1%. However, the strength of the EU eastwards was a mistake (38%). Finally, it was pressure is understandable, even if we apply a superfi- completed with the increasing lack of trust towards cial perspective to look at German investors in Russia: Russia: 76% stated that the Russian – German re- concern Metro with the network of Cash&Carry and lation is negative; around one – third presented the Media Markt, Fraport having shares in airports, Sie- opinion that it is worth keeping good relations with mens planning 2.5 billion worth investments, Conti- Russia; the majority had negative connotations con- nental producing tyres, , , BMW, Daim- nected with it. Even if the surveys were not fully repre- ler, BASF, E.Pn, , , etc. sentative they confirmed the confusion of the German All in all, around 6 thousand companies and 20 billion society. euro worth investment! This atmosphere was reflected in mass media. Germany has weaker financial links with Russia A certain group of eminent personalities was invited, than France, Austria, Italy or Cyprus. On the other whereas politicians and journalists expressing critical hand, 30% of Union’s export to Russia is attributable views towards Russia were unwelcome. At the same to Germany, therefore particular sensitivity to potential time the opinion was present (it is difficult to state complications. Germany might be the main exporter whether it was created on purpose) that German me- to the Russian market, yet its trade with Russia makes dia present a hostile attitude towards Russia, or even only 3 – 4% of its foreign trade. About 10% of German accused of Russian – phobia. It is worth noticing in export companies participate in export, whereas merely this context that, according to the analysis including around 1% in import. It is estimated then that with the the period of time till the end of April 2014, personali- forecasted increase of 2% of GNP in Germany, sanc- ties from Ukraine appeared in discussions twice less tions could decrease it by half percent. No doubt the often than the ones from Russia. Ukrainian diplomats sanctions are quite a nuisance for the part of German were absent in them. The analyzed programs were not economy. The export to Russia decreased by almost of anti – Russian character, on the contrary, the tone 17% during the first eight months of 2014, the trend of looking for the consent was prevailing. However, getting stronger in August. in September 2014 the Board of Supervisors of the Gerhard Schröder, the former Chancellor, presented public TV station ARD accused it of “anti-Russian” opinion against sanctions, so did professor Alexander tendencies. It came as a surprise also to many German Rahr, active on the border of economy and politics, and commentators. Eckhard Cordes managing “Ost-Ausschuss”, an organi- zation representing the interests of the associations of German industrialists active in East Europe. The argu- 24 Confrontation and cooperation. 1000 Years of Polish-German-Russian relations ments are not surprising: sanctions will be harmful for Pacifist attitudes, as well as the conviction dominant European economy, which will also affect Ukraine; Rus- in Germany that any use of force implies militarism sia will turn towards China and seek for markets there; and reference to the darkest German traditions, were Germany ought to act as an intermediary and prevent the key reference points. Therefore, Jürgen Trüttin, the the escalation of the conflict. The anxieties of compa- head politician of the Green Party called the appeals to nies were even more understandable since the German strengthen the eastern NATO flank “wielding the sa- – Russian economic cooperation had weakened before ber”. The idea of new NATO units stationing in Po- the Ukrainian crisis. It was vivid in worsening prognosis land increased opposition as well as the comments of for the economic development in Russia as well as in the the NATO General Secretary Anders Fogh Rasmussen stagnation of German export to East Europe, including on expanding NATO eastwards. The slogan soft power Russian – German trade exchange. In 2013 there was was prevailing as the key tool of the EU foreign policy. a decrease in German investments in Russia, the out- Such attitudes, dominant in the society, meant the flow of German capital had got stronger even before the marginal role of the option critical towards Russia in annexation of Crimea, at the beginning of 2014. the initial phase of the crisis. At this critical point the After the annexation, companies started to post- fate of Crimea had confirmed the negative experience of pone the realization of the planned projects. They the unsuccessful Partnership Instrument. There were no feared Russian counter – sanctions, there appeared dif- signs of Russia adjusting to western standards; instead ficulties in financing projects resulting from the lower- there was aggressive policy. The possibility of dialogue ing of Russia’s rating. A part of companies started to and consensus should not be abandoned, yet the west- withdraw their capital, especially the profit gathered in ern policy ought to be more cautious, foreseeing the previous years in Russian branches. Companies selling likelihood of the escalation of the conflict in the future. merchandise to Russia began to experience the effects This option was represented by the German minister of the decreasing value of Russian currency. Russian of defense Ursula von der Leyen. Her speeches concern- companies started to be cautious in contacts with Ger- ing the necessity of strengthening the eastern NATO man ones. Western banks began to withdraw from the flank caused such a strong public opposition that she Russian market without renegotiating the deadlines of had practically resigned from presenting in public her loan payments but demanding them to be paid. opinion on Ukraine. People perceiving Russian policy like her could be found in other parties. In CDU it was Wolfgang Schäuble comparing the annexation of Should the eastern NATO flank the Sudetes by Hitler with the one of Crimea by Pu- be strengthened up? tin, which resulted in protests of, among the others, former Chancellor Helmut Schmidt and the Chancel- The text above presents the conditions, the ambiguous lor Merkel. At the same time strong voices supporting social attitude and the pressure of economic circles, in this comparison could be found in social – democratic which the government of Angela Merkel had to work. “Die Zeit”. It is most likely that psychological factor was of signifi- People sharing these views, although in opposition, cance as well, since the minister of foreign affairs Frank- were also amongst the Green Party, however it is ver- Walter Steinmeier had been involved in Partnership satile. The head of the party Simone Peter was repeat- Instrument a couple of years before. The Russian policy ing spells about diplomatic actions in order to prevent towards Ukraine confirmed the futility of his former the further escalation of the conflict. According to her, concepts of foreign policy. the suggestions forwarded by von der Leyen were made Chancellor Merkel was trying to preserve modera- without careful thinking; according to Trittin it was tion, was emphasising the necessity of gradual intro- “a carefree blabbering”. On the other hand, Rebecca duction of the sanctions and providing Moscow with Harms claimed that Schröder should be forbidden to enough time to change its policy. She also accentuated express any views on Russia. The last tendency was to the need for the cooperation with the USA and the be supported for internal – political reasons by the right partners from the Union, especially with Poland. This wing of the Green Party focused around Cem Özdemir, policy suited the attitude of German publics, however and in “Linke” party by the fundamental wing. it meant, and Germany was not an exception here, the Putin’s policy was strongly supported, although in actual approval of the annexation of Crimea. a more balanced way than by the radical right or left Piotr Madajczyk: Germany Towards the Crisis in Ukraine 25 wing, by other option, which can be referred to as pro- necessity “to understand” in Germany not only Rus- Russian Realpolitik. Its main assumptions were well de- sia, but also Ukraine. So far such opinions have been of scribed by Helmut Schmidt, most openly expressing his marginal importance. opinions. He comprehends Putin’s actions and criticizes Critical standpoint of post-communist left wing the standpoint of the West. Economic sanctions will converges with the analogical one of the extreme right not bring expected results, they are of symbolic nature wing. The common ideological foundation is made by and will affect the West as much as Russia. Excluding the contempt towards the European Union, NATO Russia from G8 is harmful merely for the dialogue. The and the United States. Also anti-European “Alterna- involvement of Union in Ukraine and Georgia is a mis- tive für Deutschland” opted against the sanctions. In take, since Union has nothing to search for there and this case it is difficult to say about unanimous attitude Ukrainian nation does not exist. towards Russia, yet the strong emphasis of its interests Arguments of Schmidt remind of the ones of is clearly visible, as well as treating Ukraine, Belarus, Schröder. Actions taken by Russia were against the rules Georgia or Moldavia as de facto the parts of Russia. of international law, however the European Union un- The concepts of this party are rooted in a broader trend derestimated the divisions in Ukraine. Putin’s policy is of the European extreme right wing’s support for the motivated by the fear of Russia being surrounded, the Russian actions. pursuit to consolidate it and rebuild it economically in order to be treated as the equal partner of the USA. What caused the crisis around Crimea and Ukraine The hardening is the misunderstanding of the situation in Ukraine – the fact that it is culturally divided into European and The opinions of Chancellor Merkel about Putin liv- Russian parts. Thus letting it face the alternative: either ing in a different world imply that at the beginning joining the Union or integration with the Russian area even she could not comprehend the Russian difference of influence, was a mistake. Moreover, it was not Rus- of perspective and projected western values on it. She sia that was first to break international law, but NATO was not able to explain this policy in a rational way. during its intervention in the Balkans against Serbia, Like many western politicians she had been thinking since it had not got the mandate of the UN Security for a long time that the crisis stemmed from the lack Council. of proper communication with Russia, and the agree- The last option was the most decisive: we do not ac- ment with Moscow was indispensable for the stabi- cept the annexation of Crimea, but we do understand lization of Eastern Europe. The lack of proper com- the motifs of Russia. Further cooperation with Russia, munication was not defined as the misunderstanding as well as the dialogue with it, are the priorities. This of Russia in Germany, but as the inability to make it option is strongly supported by the left wing (most aware of the aims of the West and benefits for Russia of all “Linke”), applying the accusations of Ukraine resulting from it. for violence and fascism, and considering the western Merkel’s position had been confronted since May policy to be the equal reason for the conflict. This op- 2014 with the growing pressure that stronger policy tion is represented by Sahra Wagenknecht and Gregor was necessary. More severe sanctions and the increased Gysi, claiming that both sides are to be blamed, and the presence of NATO in the East should be taken into sanctions against Russia are pointless, like “wielding the consideration. The speech of vice-chairman of CDU/ saber” by NATO at the Russian border. For the sake CSU fraction, Andreas Schockenhoff, critical towards of Russia Ukraine ought to remain beyond the western the policy of Steinmeier may be reminded here. He was structures. joined by Karl-Georg Wellmann from CDU, strongly Sometimes there appeared on the left wing (not in- criticizing Russian policy, nationalism, arrogance and cluding social – democrats) attempts to take a different anti-western propaganda. Wellmann, the Christian- view on the conflict in the East. In his article in “Neues democrats’ specialist in eastern issues, is a balanced pol- Deutschland” Holger Politt pointed at the Polish sup- itician, previously skeptical when it came to the sanc- port for Ukrainian membership in the EU, asking then tions, appealing for diplomatic actions and rescuing about the Russian zone of influence, and the relation Russian-European relations. The changing atmosphere between recognizing it and the right of the states that is well illustrated by critical articles on the situation in had been established after the USSR collapsed, or the Russia or Russian cultural policy in German press. 26 Confrontation and cooperation. 1000 Years of Polish-German-Russian relations

In German policy the tendency to cease searching ceived. The assessment of October parliamentary elec- for the reasons for the conflict in improper communica- tions was dominating as the victory of the pro-Europe- tion was vivid. Now, they began to be set in the internal an liberal option. – political conflict. Seen like that, frustrated Russia, not The voice of those who opted for the more concil- being treated as an equal partner by the USA and the iatory policy towards Russia became less audible, al- Union, had started the expansion of its Euro-Asian in- though in an October interview Matthias Platzek was fluence zone since 2011. Russia would have been there consistently considering the sanctions to be a mistake, a hegemon. This project was not perceived as aggressive, escalating the conflict and harmful for Germany. There but rather as one of possibilities of establishing Rus- were still plenty of medial conflicts between the ones sian zone of influence between highly developed Union who understood Putin (Putin – Versteher) and the ones and dynamic China. However, as early as on the turn fiercely attacking him (Putin – Basher). of 2011 and 2012 Moscow was confronted with the New situation was described by a SPD politician, deepening crisis. It resulted, among the others, in the Karsten D.Vogt as follows: the long-term objective is increasing influence of the extreme right wing, out of still all European peace order with Russia as its part. the Kremlin control. However, authoritarian tendencies in Russian internal In such a situation, Putin supported a group in the policy, turning of Russian elites back from Europe, the authorities focused on the mobilization of the society annexation of Crimea, and the situation in the eastern basing on the nationalistic slogans. The program in- Ukraine fundamentally change the conditioning of cluded actions against liberal demonstrations, non- this policy. It means the beginning of a new phase of government organizations and homosexuals. In the fall German eastern policy and its policy towards Russia. of 2012 Putin lingered towards the idea of integrating As Vogt emphasised, eastern policy, unlike the policy the society by economic development. In the internal in Bismark’s times, does not equal the policy towards policy it was the time of liberalization. However, instead Russia. It also takes into account the interests of East of stable economic growth the inflation darted. Thus, and South -East Europe. Russian policy not only had facing the crisis in Ukraine at the beginning of 2014 breached international rules but also undermined the Russia returned to the policy of power and nationalistic trust of the West towards Russia as its partner. Rebuild- slogans. It was this narration that Putin referred to af- ing the trust will take a long time. The cooperation with ter the annexation of Crimea, applying the elements of Russia should be resumed only in the areas in which it rhetoric of the extreme right wing. It means that in the brings results. In other areas it is necessary to prevent nearest future Russian policy will be unpredictable, and risk and danger. the West will have little influence on it. What worries, however, is the fact that the change Such an assessment of the situation meant the hard- of German policy is set in an extremely unstable so- ening of the German policy towards Russia, although cial context. There is no doubt that Russia has lost the it still involves diplomatic attempts aiming at pacifying friendly attitude of the majority of German society, al- the conflict. Chancellor Merkel was clearly distancing though the negative image of this country does not pre- from the pressure of business circle, emphasising the vail. There is, however, no trust towards it. The majority will to introduce further sanctions if necessary. There of Germans considers Russia to be a superpower. The appeared opinions in articles on “a deep crisis of trust” same number claims that it is necessary to cooperate and doubts concerning Russia’s interest in the coopera- with it and the USA. Does it imply splitting up with tion with Europe. The extent of propaganda war and the United States? miss-information performed by Kremlin had finally What is more, Germany is divided into eastern and been noticed. western parts. In the western one the support for the Also the election of Petro Poroschenko for the presi- sanctions is much stronger, whereas in the eastern the dent of Ukraine, well received in Germany, was of im- opinion that it is the Russian – Ukrainian conflict of no portance. The difficult situation he was in was noticed, significance for the West. especially the fact that the support for him was actually weaker than what the result of elections could suggest. However, the opportunity for starting reforms was em- Prof. Piotr Madajczyk, Ph.D. – Polish Academy of Sciences (Po- phasised if he could take advantage of the EU support land), Institute of Political Studies, Department of German Studies. as well as social initiatives. His peace plan was well re- E-: [email protected].